HomeMy WebLinkAboutMSW Projections Memo
TECHNICAL MEMORANDUM
Date: February 23, 2026
Re: 40 Year Municipal Solid Waste Tonnage Projection
Background
Planning for the replacement of the Jefferson County Transfer Station began in 2022 and a preferred site
was identified in January 2026. Planning has now moved into design phase and the basis for the size of
the building for municipal solid waste (MSW) processing is the projected tonnage at the end of the
planned 40-year service life.
Methodology
The end year for projections was set at 2071 assuming that a new transfer station begins operations in
2031.
In the attached worksheet, the projected growth rates by location provided in Exhibit 1-2 of the April
2025 Draft Jefferson County Comprehensive Plan were used to project the 2025 population to 2071.
2071 projected total tonnages of municipal solid waste was found by:
• Dividing 2025 MSW tonnages by the 2025 estimated population in Exhibit 1-2 to get a 2025
annual tons per capita MSW generation rate
• Multiplying the annual tons per capita to the projected 2071 population by area
The 2025 annual tons per capita MSW generation rate of .75 tons was found to be consistent with the
five-year average of years 2020 through 2024 of .70 tons as below:
Findings
The projected 2071 population is 51,317 and the projected annual MSW generation is 38,714
tons.
Year Population*MSW Tons Per Capita Rate
2020 32,977 21,819.49 0.662
2021 33,100 23,433.41 0.708
2022 33,350 24,056.22 0.721
2023 33,425 23,587.14 0.706
2024 33,700 23,725.15 0.704
0.700Five Year Average
Five Year Trend: Annual MSW Tons Per Capita
* Source: Office of Financial Management: April 1, 2025 Report used for allocation of
selected State revenues
2025 Population
Projected
Annual Growth
Rate 2071 Population
2025 Annual
Tons/Per Capita
Projected 2071
Annual Tons
10,807 0.99%17,002 0.754 12,827
3,024 2.91%11,026 0.754 8,319
2,979 1.01%4,687 0.754 3,536
774 0.27%876 0.754 661
490 0.42%594 0.754 448
16,512 0.08%17,131 0.754 12,924
34,586 51,317 38,714
Year Port Townsend County Urban Port Ludlow Brinnon Quilcene Other Rural
2025 10,807 3,024 2,979 774 490 16,512
2026 10,914 3,112 3,009 776 492 16,525
2027 11,022 3,203 3,039 778 494 16,538
2028 11,131 3,296 3,070 780 496 16,552
2029 11,241 3,392 3,101 782 498 16,565
2030 11,353 3,490 3,133 785 500 16,578
2031 11,465 3,592 3,164 787 502 16,591
2032 11,579 3,696 3,196 789 505 16,605
2033 11,693 3,804 3,228 791 507 16,618
2034 11,809 3,915 3,261 793 509 16,631
2035 11,926 4,029 3,294 795 511 16,645
2036 12,044 4,146 3,327 797 513 16,658
2037 12,163 4,267 3,361 799 515 16,671
2038 12,284 4,391 3,395 802 517 16,685
2039 12,405 4,518 3,429 804 520 16,698
2040 12,528 4,650 3,464 806 522 16,711
2041 12,652 4,785 3,499 808 524 16,725
2042 12,777 4,924 3,534 810 526 16,738
2043 12,904 5,068 3,570 812 528 16,751
2044 13,031 5,215 3,606 815 531 16,765
2045 13,161 5,367 3,642 817 533 16,778
2046 13,291 5,523 3,679 819 535 16,792
2047 13,422 5,684 3,716 821 537 16,805
2048 13,555 5,849 3,754 824 540 16,819
2049 13,689 6,020 3,792 826 542 16,832
2050 13,825 6,195 3,830 828 544 16,845
2051 13,962 6,375 3,869 830 546 16,859
2052 14,100 6,560 3,908 832 549 16,872
2053 14,240 6,751 3,947 835 551 16,886
2054 14,381 6,948 3,987 837 553 16,899
2055 14,523 7,150 4,027 839 556 16,913
2056 14,667 7,358 4,068 841 558 16,926
2057 14,812 7,572 4,109 844 560 16,940
2058 14,959 7,793 4,150 846 563 16,954
2059 15,107 8,019 4,192 848 565 16,967
2060 15,256 8,253 4,235 851 567 16,981
2061 15,407 8,493 4,277 853 570 16,994
2062 15,560 8,740 4,321 855 572 17,008
2063 15,714 8,994 4,364 858 575 17,021
2064 15,869 9,256 4,408 860 577 17,035
2065 16,027 9,525 4,453 862 579 17,049
2066 16,185 9,803 4,498 864 582 17,062
2067 16,345 10,088 4,543 867 584 17,076
2068 16,507 10,381 4,589 869 587 17,090
2069 16,671 10,684 4,636 871 589 17,103
2070 16,836 10,994 4,682 874 592 17,117
2071 17,002 11,026 4,687 876 594 17,131
Population Growth Worksheet
40 Year Tonnage Projection
Location (Unincorporated unless
noted)
Port Townsend (Incorporated)
County Urban
Port Ludlow MPR
Brinnon RVC
Quilcene RVC
Other Rural and Resource Areas
Totals