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HomeMy WebLinkAboutCape George - Speed Change Report Engineering and Traffic Investigation: Cape George Road Speed Limit Study & Engineer’s Recommendation April 2026 Jefferson County Public Works Page 2 REPORT OF ENGINEERING, TRAFFIC INVESTIGATION AND PROPOSED SPEED LIMIT CHANGE ROAD NAME and NUMBER: Cape George Road, County Road No. 622808 TERMINI: Mile Post 0.23 to 1.91 EXISTING MAXIMUM SPEED LIMIT: 50 Miles per Hour (MPH) PROPOSED MAXIMUM SPEED LIMIT: 40 MPH INTRODUCTION AND PURPOSE Project Initiation Initiated in response to numerous public requests, this engineering and traffic study evaluates reducing the speed limit on Cape George Road between milepost (MP) 0.23 and MP 1.91. Residents cited several safety concerns as the basis for this request, including narrow shoulders, a high density of driveways and intersections, and the need for consistency with speed limits on adjoining and adjacent road segments. Statutory Authority and Local Code Under RCW 46.61.400, the statutory speed limit for county roads is 50 miles per hour unless otherwise posted. However, the Basic Speed Rule requires motorists to drive at a speed reasonable for prevailing conditions, meaning 50 mph may not always be appropriate—even in the absence of signage. While state law establishes default limits, RCW 46.61.415 grants local authorities the power to adjust speed limits based on an engineering and traffic investigation. For Jefferson County, these limits are codified in Jefferson County Code Section 10.05.040. Page 3 Guidance and Methodology This study draws primarily from two key sources: the Manual on Uniform Traffic Control Devices (MUTCD), a federal standard used by all 50 states, and the Speed Limit Setting Handbook, FHWA-SA-24-063 (January 2025). Rather than repeating all details from these documents, the following principles summarize the foundation for setting speed limits: • Speed limits advise drivers of the maximum reasonable and safe operating speed under favorable conditions and provide a basis for enforcement. • Laws should reflect the normally careful and competent actions of a reasonable person. • Effective enforcement depends on voluntary compliance by the majority of drivers. • Most drivers operate in a safe and reasonable manner, as demonstrated by favorable driving records. Evolution of Speed Limit Setting Historically, traffic engineering policy in the United States has relied heavily on the Operating Speed Method. This practice is based on the 85th percentile speed, which is the speed at or below which 85% of motorists travel under favorable conditions.1 An alternative methodology, known as the Injury Minimization or Safe System Approach, recommends setting limits significantly below the 50th percentile speed to prioritize human survivability and vulnerable road users.2 Context-Sensitive Adjustments While previous editions of the MUTCD suggested that speed limits be set within 5 mph of the 85th percentile speed, the current 11th Edition of the MUTCD provides for a more context-sensitive approach. It acknowledges that the 85th percentile should not be the sole determinant, particularly in areas with specific safety concerns. Consequently, agencies may adjust limits downward to account for specific hazards, including: • Horizontal and vertical curves that may limit sight distance. • High driveway density increasing conflict potential. • Significant pedestrian and bicycle activity near residential areas or trailheads. • Narrow shoulders and restricted recovery areas. Recommended Blended Strategy Cape George Road combines features of a rural collector and a residential street, so neither the traditional Operating Speed Method nor the Safe System Approach alone is sufficient. Therefore, the recommended approach is to use the 85th percentile speed as a reference point rather than the sole determinant, apply context-sensitive adjustments to address safety concerns, and balance mobility needs with the protection of pedestrians, cyclists, and adjacent properties. Important Considerations and Limitations When establishing regulatory limits, it is important to distinguish them from other traffic control measures. Speed limits are not set to account for the worst condition that exists along a road segment; short sections with adverse conditions, such as sharp curves, are managed with yellow advisory speed signs. Furthermore, setting limits too far below the 85th percentile can discourage compliance and create hazards due to speed differentials between drivers, leading to unsafe passing and tailgating. 1 Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE), Methods and Practices for Setting Speed Limits: An Informational Report (Washington, DC: ITE, 2012). 2 Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), Safe System Approach for Speed Management, FHWA-SA-20-070 (Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Transportation, 2020). Page 4 SPEED AND TRAFFIC STUDY Study Methodology Jefferson County Public Works routinely performs speed studies on county roads to aid in enforcement and to respond to inquiries regarding the speed limit. A speed study was conducted on Cape George Road October 13-16, 2025. The study consisted of placing equipment on the road at MP 1.5 and collecting data over a three-day period. The data collected was downloaded into software and analyzed to report speed and road usage trends. The results are summarized below with a full analysis located in Appendix C. Speed Analysis Results The following table summarizes the operational speeds and violation data recorded at the study location during the 75-hour observation window. Mile Post 1.5 85th Percentile Speed (mph)52 Average Speed 46 Total Enforcable Violations 294 Cape George Road Speed Study Results Traffic Volume and Classification The average daily traffic (ADT) count reported for the study period is 1960. This count is the sum of the trips in both lanes, and generally the count is evenly distributed in each direction. Traffic counts since 1998 have slightly declined or remained consistent. Nationally, roads with an ADT of more than 1500, such as Cape George Road, are classified as Rural Major Collector.3 Operational Observations The recorded 85th percentile speed of 52 mph indicates that the majority of motorists are currently traveling slightly above the posted 50 mph limit. However, the average speed of 46 mph suggests that a significant portion of traffic is already operating at speeds closer to the proposed 40 mph limit, likely in response to the residential nature and geometric constraints of the segment described in previous sections. ROADWAY CHARACTERISTICS Route Description and Functional Context Cape George Road is a chip-sealed roadway approximately 7.57 miles in total length, beginning about one mile west of Port Townsend Paper Corporation at its intersection with South Discovery Road. From there, it travels northwest for roughly two miles to a wye intersection with Hastings Avenue West, then continues west toward the northern portion of the Cape George Colony subdivision. The road then turns southeast for 1.4 miles, shifts southwest toward Beckett Point for about half a mile, and resumes a southeast direction past Discovery Bay Golf Club before reconnecting with South Discovery Road near Chevy Chase Beach Cabins on the eastern shoreline of 3 American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO), A Policy on Geometric Design of Highways and Streets, 7th ed. (Washington, DC: AASHTO, 2018). Page 5 Discovery Bay. The subject segment begins 0.23 miles west of the northerly intersection with South Discovery Road and continues until the wye intersection with Hastings Ave at MP 1.91. Cross-Section and Clear Zone The subject segment has a flush median and a paved width of approximately 22 feet. Shoulders are gravel or grass, typically providing zero to three feet of usable width. Beyond the shoulder and drainage ditch, the clear zone ranges from one to four feet and is sporadically covered with mixed herbaceous and woody vegetation. The surrounding topography varies from nearly level terrain to embankments with moderate positive grades. Outside the clear zone, the landscape is predominantly dense tree growth, occasionally interrupted by open meadow areas. Traffic Control and Pavement Markings The roadway is marked with a double yellow centerline and white edge lines, delineating travel lanes. Centerline markings are in good condition and provide adequate visibility in both daylight and nighttime conditions, and fog lines have been eliminated from Cape George Road per the 2024 Jefferson County Public Works Pavement Marking Policy. Traffic control along Cape George Road is minimal, consisting primarily of speed limit signs, cross-street warning signs, and school bus stop signs. Cross streets are controlled with stop signs; however, traffic on Cape George Road remains free-flowing with no stop control. Cape George Road Typical Conditions: Horizontal Alignment and Sight Distance There are no vertical curves within the subject segment that limit sight distance; however, two horizontal curves do impact visibility and driver perception. The first and most significant is a curve to the right between MP 0.62 and MP 0.86, which reduces sight distance and may require lower operating speeds for safe maneuvering. The second is a gradual curve to the left beginning near Loftus Road at MP 1.17 and continuing to MP 1.70 near Lindsey Lane. While less severe, this curve still limits forward visibility, particularly when combined with roadside vegetation and driveway access points. Page 6 Geometric Safety Considerations These curves are important because restricted sight distance can potentially increase the likelihood of conflicts with entering driveways, pedestrians, equestrians or cyclists, especially on a roadway with narrow shoulders and limited recovery areas. When evaluating appropriate speed limits, these geometric features should be considered alongside other context-sensitive factors such as driveway density and the presence of vulnerable road users, particularly given the location of the Larry Scott Trail (LST)/ Olympic Discovery Trail (ODT) trailhead located along this road segment. ROADWAY ENVIRONMENT Land Use and Development The roadside environment along this 1.68-mile segment is primarily low-to-medium density residential. However, the corridor also supports commercial and recreational activity that introduces varying traffic types and turning movements. Notable developments include: • Commercial: Cape George Reclamation LLC (MP 1.49) and Cape George Marine Works, Inc. (MP 1.89). • Recreational: A Jefferson County park at MP 0.75 (Left) provides parking and a key access point to the Larry Scott Trail, attracting pedestrians and cyclists to the roadway shoulder and crossing areas. Several years ago, there was an effort to establish a public equestrian park and trail system on the former landfill property (parcel #001172002) that abuts Cape George Road approximately 0.4 miles west of the Larry Scott/ODT Trailhead. This effort was ultimately unsuccessful however an informal trail system was established on the parcel and surrounding properties. Public comments mention these trails and the Larry Scott Trail are used by the equestrian community. Access Density and Intersections The segment is characterized by frequent conflict points from both private and public access. There are currently 21 road approaches and 3 county road intersections. Many of these approaches serve clusters of homes rather than single-family dwellings. To quantify the potential for vehicle conflicts, the Equivalent Intersection Density was calculated: • Total Access Points: 24 • Segment Length: 1.68 miles • Density: 14.29 intersections per mile • Average Spacing: Approximately 739 feet between approaches. Technical Note: This density suggests a semi-suburban environment where high-speed through-traffic (50 mph) may conflict with the frequency of turning movements, especially given the multi-address nature of the existing approaches. Multimodal Considerations While there are no active Jefferson Transit routes or stops along this segment, the proximity to the Larry Scott Trail/ODT at MP 0.75 indicates a higher-than-average presence of non-motorized users. The transition between the trail and the county park requires motorists to be aware of pedestrians and cyclists entering or exiting the roadway environment. Page 7 CRASH HISTORY AND SAFETY ANALYSIS Historical Data Overview A review of crash data for the subject segment from 2015 to 2024 reveals nine reported incidents. The recorded data indicates a high frequency of roadway departure events, with four incidents resulting in injuries and five resulting in property damage only (PDO). Environmental conditions were a factor in several cases; four occurred on snow, ice, or wet pavement, and three occurred during hours of darkness. Crash Rate and Statistical Performance The calculated crash rate for the 1.68-mile subject section is 74.88 per 100 million vehicle miles traveled (100 MVMT), based on a 10-year study period and an ADT of 1,960. When compared to the national average for total crashes (which typically ranges between 180 and 200 per 100 MVMT), the subject section exhibits a safety performance significantly higher than the national baseline. Furthermore, the section recorded a fatality rate of 0.00 per 100 MVMT, notably lower than the national rural average of 1.65. Comparison to National Trends While the dark-condition crash rate (44%) and citation rate (33%) align closely with national rural trends, the overall low crash frequency and absence of fatalities suggest that the segment does not currently present an abnormal safety hazard compared to similar rural roadways. Geographic Clusters and Geometric Conflicts Despite the favorable statistical rating, a significant cluster of crashes occurs near the horizontal curves identified in the geometric analysis: • MP 0.64 to MP 0.85: Four incidents occurred within this curve sequence, including two injury crashes. • MP 1.29 to MP 1.38: Four incidents occurred in this sub-segment, primarily involving vehicles leaving the roadway and impacting trees or embankments. Safety Implications for Speed Adjustment The absence of fatalities to date provides an opportunity for proactive safety management. While the current 50 mph limit has not resulted in a high volume of crashes, the prevalence of vehicles leaving the roadway and crossing the centerline poses a continuous risk to pedestrians and cyclists utilizing the Larry Scott Trail/ODT access at MP MP Date Crash Type Severity Surface Light Time Alcohol Citation 1.367 01/15/24 E/B 180 DEG // ICY CONDTIONS // LEFT ROAD RESTED AGAINST TREE // TOTALLED PDO SNOW DARK 7:00 NO NO 1.374 05/23/22 W/B STRAIGHT / ONTO W/B SHOULDER / LEFT ROADWAY / TRAVELED OVER 6' E/B EMBANKMENT / IMPACTED TREE / LARGE FIR TREE INJURY DRY DAYLIGHT 14:04 NO NO 0.776 11/12/21 CURVE E/B / CROSSED C/LINE / LOST CONTROL / SLID BACK ACROSS E/B LANE / LEFT ROADWAY IMPACTED COUNTY SIGN PDO WET DARK 18:23 NO NO 0.854 03/24/18 CURVE W/B / HAIL / LOST CONTROL / LEFT ROADWAY / CROSSED W/B DITCH / IMPACTED SHORT CUT-BANK PDO HAIL DAYLIGHT 12:55 NO NO 0.646 08/31/17 OPPISATE DIRECTION / ONE CROSSED C/LINE / FORCE ONE OFF ROADWAY E/B / ROLLED OVER / SHEARED OFF POWER POLE GUY POLE / RESTED INJURY DRY DAYLIGHT 10:40 NO YES 1.388 03/12/17 W/B STRAIGHT / ONTO W/B SHOULDER / LEFT ROADWAY / TRAVELED OVER 6' E/B EMBANKMENT / IMPACTED TREE PDO DRY DARK 0:00 NO NO 0.708 02/16/16 CURVE E/B / CROSSED C/LINE / LOST CONTROL / SLID BACK ACROSS E/B LANE / LEFT ROADWAY IMPACTED COUNTY SIGN INJURY WET DARK 17:53 NO YES 1.292 01/18/16 E/B ONTO SHOULDER / LEFT ROADWAY / TRAVELED UP 5' E/B EMBANKMENT / IMPACTED TREE INJURY DRY DAYLIGHT 13:40 NO YES 0.815 11/29/15 CURVE W/B / ICE / LOST CONTROL / CROSSED C/LINE / LEFT ROADWAY / ROLLED OVER PDO ICE DAYLIGHT 13:53 NO NO CAPE GEORGE ROAD CRASH HISTORY Page 8 0.75. Lowering the speed limit to 40 mph aligns the regulatory environment with the physical constraints of the roadway, aiming to sustain the current low crash rate as residential and recreational density increases. PEDESTRIAN AND NON-MOTORIZED USE Non-Motorized Activity and Equestrian Use Public comments indicate that this segment of Cape George Road is utilized by various non-motorized users, including pedestrians, cyclists, and equestrians. While Public Works has not conducted formal non-motorized counts, the presence of the Larry Scott Trailhead and informal equestrian trails serves as a consistent attraction for recreational users increasing the risk of conflicts. The rural and residential nature of the corridor along with trail connectivity facilitates pedestrian, bicycle and equestrian activity. All of which requires increased driver caution and longer following distances to ensure the safety of pedestrians, bicyclists and animals. Roadway Conflicts and Residential Access Development along the corridor consists of residential clusters on both sides of the roadway, and unlike some other rural routes, mailboxes are located on both the north and south sides of the road. This arrangement necessitates frequent crossings by residents and slowing or stopping by delivery vehicles on both shoulders. Per the 2024 Jefferson County Public Works Pavement Marking Policy, fog lines have been eliminated from this corridor, meaning there is no longer a marked visual barrier between vehicular traffic and the roadside. This absence of delineation, combined with a physical unpaved width of only zero to three feet, is insufficient to safely accommodate pedestrians or horses outside of the active travel lane. These narrow dimensions and the lack of lane - edge definition, when paired with the current 50 mph limit, create a high-risk environment where non-motorized users must operate in immediate proximity to high-speed vehicular traffic. Infrastructure and Safety Constraints Although no specific concerns were raised by residents regarding walking during hours of darkness, the physical constraints of the roadway remain a factor for daytime and twilight safety. Expanding the shoulders to provide dedicated non-motorized paths by filling in existing drainage ditches is not a feasible solution in most areas. These ditches are critical for managing stormwater during design-level events; reducing their capacity would increase the risk of roadway flooding and pavement degradation. Consequently, managing vehicular speeds is the most effective tool currently available to improve the safety of the existing shared-use environment. DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS Speed Limit Analysis The Operating Speed Method of setting speed limits suggests that the existing 50 mph limit is higher than what is comfortable for the average driver, as evidenced by an average recorded speed of 46 mph. While the 85th percentile speed was recorded at 52 mph, it is standard engineering practice to adjust limits downward to account for specific hazards or conditions that a driver might not immediately perceive. Cape George Road exhibits several of these context-sensitive factors, including: • Narrow paved width of 22 feet with virtually no usable recovery area. • High driveway density of 14.29 per mile, creating frequent conflict points. • Recreational use stemming from the Larry Scott Trail and county park access. • Horizontal curves that restrict forward visibility and sight distance. Page 9 The relatively low crash rate observed over the last decade is likely due to current traffic volumes, which allow drivers to utilize more of the roadway width when no oncoming traffic is present. However, as residential and recreational use continues, the current 50 mph limit provides a diminishing margin of safety. Corridor Consistency A primary goal in traffic engineering is to provide a consistent and predictable driving environment that aligns with a motorist's expectations. The proposed 40 mph limit for this segment (MP 0.23 to 1.91) creates a logical transition between existing speed zones. Currently, the initial segment of Cape George Road (MP 0.00 to 0.23) is posted at 35 mph, while the segment immediately following this study area (MP 1.91 to 4.69) is already 40 mph. Reducing the middle segment to 40 mph eliminates the current 'speed spike' and provides a uniform experience for motorists. This change also aligns with adjacent Hastings Avenue West, which serves as a primary extension of the Cape George corridor. Despite having comparable or superior roadway characteristics and the same Federal Functional Classification as Cape George Road, Hastings Avenue is currently posted at 40 mph. Lowering the limit ensures that regulatory speeds accurately reflect the shared rural-residential character of the area and maintain consistency with these neighboring standards. Operational Observations Staff conducted multiple test drives of the segment to determine the appropriateness of the proposed 40 mph limit. Driving at 40 mph felt appropriate given the residential nature of the neighborhood and the frequency of multi- address driveway approaches. At this speed, perception-reaction time is significantly improved, which is critical for a roadway that accommodates pedestrians, cyclists, and equestrian users on narrow, unpaved shoulders. The 11th Edition of the MUTCD empowers agencies to prioritize these context-sensitive factors over pure operating speed data to minimize the risk of serious injury and better reflect the physical constraints of the built environment. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS Summary of Findings Based on this engineering and traffic investigation, the current 50 mph speed limit is no longer appropriate for the subject segment of Cape George Road. The high density of driveways, the constrained shoulder width for non- motorized users, and restricted sight distance on horizontal curves, compounded by the need for consistency with adjoining County Road segments, all support a more conservative operating speed. While the 10-year crash history shows a statistically safe roadway, the nature of recorded incidents consisting primarily roadway departures indicates that a lower speed limit would improve the ability of drivers to maintain lane position within the existing geometry. Recommendations Per the authority granted under RCW 46.61.415, it is recommended that the maximum speed limit be lowered from 50 mph to 40 mph for Cape George Road from MP 0.23 to MP 1.91. • Corridor Consistency: This change establishes a logical transition between the existing 35 mph zone (MP 0.00–0.23) and the 40 mph zone beginning at MP 1.91, eliminating the current "speed spike" • Legislative Action: This reduction should be accomplished by holding a public hearing to update Exhibit A of Jefferson County Code 10.05.040. • Implementation: Upon approval, new 40 mph regulatory signs shall be installed as appropriate to notify motorists of the updated limit. • Public Education: Public W orks recom m ends the tem pora ry placement of a PCM S (reader board) with speed feedback for a period of 4 to 6 weeks following sign installation to encoura ge voluntary com pliance and educate the public on the new speed environm ent. Approval Prepared By: Josh Thornton Real Property Specialist ~~ / irector Date: ~~''~o {_1.ot-f-_ Approved By: Page 10 Page 11 References American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO). A Policy on Geometric Design of Highways and Streets. 7th ed. Washington, DC: AASHTO, 2018. Federal Highway Administration (FHWA). Manual on Uniform Traffic Control Devices for Streets and Highways (MUTCD). 11th ed. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Transportation, 2023. Federal Highway Administration (FHWA). Safe System Approach for Speed Management. FHWA- SA-20-070. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Transportation, 2020. Federal Highway Administration (FHWA). Speed Limit Setting Handbook. FHWA-SA-24-063. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Transportation, 2025. Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE). Methods and Practices for Setting Speed Limits: An Informational Report. Washington, DC: ITE, 2012. Jefferson County Public Works. Pavement Marking Policy. Port Townsend, WA: Jefferson County, 2024.