HomeMy WebLinkAboutAnderson Lake - Speed Change Report
Engineering and Traffic Investigation:
Anderson Lake Road Speed Limit Study &
Engineer’s Recommendation
April 2026
Jefferson County Public Works
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REPORT OF ENGINEERING, TRAFFIC INVESTIGATION AND
PROPOSED SPEED LIMIT CHANGE
ROAD NAME and NUMBER: Anderson Lake Road, County Road No. 523408
TERMINI: Mile Post 0.0 to 2.77
EXISTING MAXIMUM SPEED LIMIT: 50 Miles per Hour (MPH)
PROPOSED MAXIMUM SPEED LIMIT: 45 MPH
INTRODUCTION AND PURPOSE
Project Initiation
Initiated as a periodic review, this engineering and traffic study evaluates reducing the speed limit from 50 to 45
miles per hour on Anderson Lake Road between milepost (MP) 0.0 and MP 2.77.
Statutory Authority and Local Code
Under RCW 46.61.400, the statutory speed limit for county roads is 50 miles per hour unless otherwise posted.
However, the Basic Speed Rule requires motorists to drive at a speed reasonable for prevailing conditions, meaning
50 mph may not always be appropriate—even in the absence of signage. While state law establishes default limits,
RCW 46.61.415 grants local authorities the power to adjust speed limits based on an engineering and traffic
investigation. For Jefferson County, these limits are codified in Jefferson County Code Section 10.05.040.
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Guidance and Methodology
This study draws primarily from two key sources: the Manual on Uniform Traffic Control Devices (MUTCD), a
federal standard used by all 50 states, and the Speed Limit Setting Handbook, FHWA-SA-24-063 (January 2025).
Rather than repeating all details from these documents, the following principles summarize the foundation for
setting speed limits:
• Speed limits advise drivers of the maximum reasonable and safe operating speed under favorable
conditions and provide a basis for enforcement.
• Laws should reflect the normally careful and competent actions of a reasonable person.
• Effective enforcement depends on voluntary compliance by the majority of drivers.
• Most drivers operate in a safe and reasonable manner, as demonstrated by favorable driving records.
Evolution of Speed Limit Setting
Historically, traffic engineering policy in the United States has relied heavily on the Operating Speed Method. This
practice is based on the 85th percentile speed, which is the speed at or below which 85% of motorists travel under
favorable conditions.1 An alternative methodology, known as the Injury Minimization or Safe System Approach,
recommends setting limits significantly below the 50th percentile speed to prioritize human survivability and
vulnerable road users.2
Context-Sensitive Adjustments
While previous editions of the MUTCD suggested that speed limits be set within 5 mph of the 85th percentile
speed, the current 11th Edition of the MUTCD provides for a more context-sensitive approach. It acknowledges
that the 85th percentile should not be the sole determinant, particularly in areas with specific safety concerns.
Consequently, agencies may adjust limits downward to account for specific hazards, including:
• Horizontal and vertical curves that may limit sight distance.
• High driveway density increasing conflict potential.
• Significant pedestrian and bicycle activity near residential areas or trailheads.
• Narrow shoulders and restricted recovery areas.
Recommended Blended Strategy
Due to the combined pressures of significant horizonal curves and recreational traffic from the State Park, Olympic
Discovery Trail, Tamanowas Rock Sanctuary Trailhead and Evergreen Coho Escapee RV park a hybrid approach is
appropriate for Anderson Lake Road. This strategy moves beyond the 85th percentile speed as a sole determinant,
integrating context-sensitive safety measures that mitigate risks associated with the road curvature, topography and
the high density of multimodal traffic.
Important Considerations and Limitations
When establishing regulatory limits, it is important to distinguish them from other traffic control measures. Speed
limits are not set to account for the worst condition that exists along a road segment; short sections with adverse
conditions, such as sharp curves, are managed with yellow advisory speed signs. Furthermore, setting limits too far
1 Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE), Methods and Practices for Setting Speed Limits: An Informational Report
(Washington, DC: ITE, 2012).
2 Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), Safe System Approach for Speed Management, FHWA-SA-20-070 (Washington,
DC: U.S. Department of Transportation, 2020).
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below the 85th percentile can discourage compliance and create hazards due to speed differentials between drivers,
leading to unsafe passing and tailgating.
SPEED AND TRAFFIC STUDY
Study Methodology
Jefferson County Public Works routinely performs speed studies on county roads to aid in enforcement and to
respond to inquiries regarding the speed limit. A speed study was conducted on Anderson Lake Road October 23-
28, 2025. The study consisted of placing equipment on the road at MP 1.1 and collecting data over a five-day
period. The data collected was downloaded into software and analyzed to report speed and road usage trends. The
results are summarized below with a full analysis located in Appendix C.
Speed Analysis Results
The following table summarizes the operational speeds and violation data recorded at the study location during the
observation window.
Mile Post 1.1
85th Percentile Speed (mph)51
Average Speed 45
Total Enforcable Violations 381
Anderson Lake Road Speed Study Results
Traffic Volume and Classification
The average daily traffic (ADT) count reported for the study period is 1114. This count is the sum of the trips in
both lanes, and generally the count is evenly distributed in each direction. Traffic counts since 1998 have slightly
declined or remained consistent.
Operational Observations
The recorded 85th percentile speed of 51 mph indicates that the majority of motorists are currently traveling
slightly above the posted 50 mph limit. However, the average speed of 45 mph suggests that a significant portion of
traffic is already operating at speeds closer to the proposed 45 mph limit, likely in response to the recreational
context and geometric constraints of the road described in following sections.
ROADWAY CHARACTERISTICS
Route Description and Functional Context
Anderson Lake Road is a two-lane, chip-sealed rural collector spanning 2.77 miles between SR-20 at MP 3.68 and
SR-19 at MP 10.05. The roadway begins at the intersection of SR-20 with a 0.9-mile tangent segment traveling east
before entering a series of horizontal deflections. The first major deflection is a gradual right -hand curve at the 0.9-
mile mark that shifts the alignment southeast to bypass Anderson Lake. This is followed at mile 1.2 by a complex
transitional segment consisting of a gentle right-hand curve leading immediately into a sharp left-hand curve. The
road then maintains a northeasterly heading through a gradual 0.3-mile left-hand sweep before entering a
pronounced 0.5-mile right-hand curve. This final major curve serves as the transition to a concluding 0.47-mile
straightaway that terminates at the SR-19 junction.
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Cross-Section and Clear Zone
The subject segment has a flush median and a paved width of approximately 22 feet. Shoulders are gravel or grass,
typically providing zero to three feet of usable width. Beyond the shoulder and drainage ditch, the clear zone ranges
from one to four feet and is sporadically covered with mixed herbaceous and woody vegetation. The surrounding
topography varies from nearly level terrain to undulating grades featuring both moderate descending and ascending
embankments. Outside the clear zone, the landscape is predominantly dense tree growth. Anderson Lake Road
Typical Conditions:
Traffic Control and Pavement Markings
The roadway is marked with a double yellow centerline and white edge lines, delineating travel lanes. The
markings are in good condition and provide adequate visibility in both daylight and night-time conditions. Traffic
control along Anderson Lake Road is minimal, consisting primarily of speed limit signs, advisory warning signs,
and school bus stop signs. Rhody Court is the only cross street and is controlled by a stop sign. Traffic on Anderson
Lake Road remains free flowing with no stop control.
Horizontal Alignment and Sight Distance
There are no pronounced vertical curves along the road that limit sight distance; however, two horizontal curves are
present that impact visibility and driver perception. The first and most significant is a curve to the right between
MP 1.23 and MP 1.46, which reduces sight distance and is posted with an advisory speed of 40 MPH. The second is
a more gradual curve to the right beginning approximately at MP 2.1 and continuing to MP 2.48 just beyond Coho
Drive and the entrance to Evergreen Coho Escapee Resort RV Park. While less severe, this curve still limits
forward visibility, particularly when combined with roadside trees and vegetation.
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Geometric Safety Considerations
These curves are important because the restricted sight distance can potentially increase the likelihood of conflicts
with pedestrians, equestrians, cyclists or entering driveways, especially on a roadway with narrow shoulders and
limited recovery areas. When evaluating appropriate speed limits, these geometric features should be considered
alongside other context-sensitive factors such as driveway density and the presence of vulnerable road users,
particularly given the proximity of Anderson Lake State Park and Tamanowas Rock Sanctuary to the horizonal
curves.
ROADWAY ENVIRONMENT
Land Use and Development
The roadside environment along this 2.77-mile road is primarily low density residential. However, the corridor also
supports recreational activity that introduces varying traffic types and turning movements. Notable developments
include:
• Anderson Lake State Park located at MP 1.07 is a significant 496-acre regional destination featuring
extensive hiking, biking, and equestrian trail systems. The park’s role as a traffic generator is expected to
expand with the integration of the Olympic Discovery Trail, which will establish Anderson Lake Road as a
trailhead and key multimodal link for travelers heading toward Port Townsend.
• Tamanowas Rock Sanctuary located at MP 2.18 acts as a secondary traffic generator on Anderson Lake
Road, specifically concentrated at the trailhead turnout located approximately 0.6 miles east of SR-19. This
destination contributes to localized vehicle arrivals and departures, including occasional equestrian trailers
and visitor parking along the narrow shoulder.
• Evergreen Coho RV Park located at MP 2.47 is a high-occupancy residential community that contributes
steady daily volume to Anderson Lake Road. Its presence introduces a consistent mix of recreational
vehicles and oversized loads.
• Unmanaged Department of Natural Resources (DNR) Timber Lands border the southern boundary of the
State Park and the roadway, these DNR trust lands contain an ad hoc network of unofficial timber roads
and social trails. While these are not formal recreational facilities, they are used by mountain bikers and
equestrian riders as an informal extension of the park’s trail system. This creates unpredictable points of
entry where non-motorized users emerge from forested areas onto the roadway shoulders, requiring a
higher degree of driver awareness and reduced speeds to accommodate these undeclared crossing points.
Access Density and Intersections
Anderson Lake Road exhibits a total access density of 9.38 points per mile, comprising one intersection and 25
road approaches. While the overall density is moderate for a rural collector, the complexity is heightened by several
shared driveways serving multiple residences. This level of access introduces “side friction” into the traffic flow, as
drivers must frequently account for entering and exiting vehicles, particularly in the undulating and curved
segments of the roadway where sight lines are restricted. This density suggests an environment where high-speed
through-traffic (50 mph) may conflict with the frequency of turning movements, especially given the multi-address
nature of the existing approaches.
Multimodal Considerations
Although lacking formal transit stops, the roadway serves as a vital artery for the region’s non-motorized network
through its direct connection to the Anderson Lake Trail System. With the development of the ODT connection, the
corridor will increasingly operate as a shared-use environment. This requires a heightened level of driver awareness
to accommodate the transition of recreational users from the park’s interior trails onto the roadway environment.
Per the Tri-Area Active Transportation Plan (ATP), Anderson Lake Road will provide a functional connection
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between the ODT and the broader Tri-Area network. As a de facto link for non-motorized regional travel, the
corridor must accommodate a diverse mix of road users. Furthermore, nearby sidewalk improvements in the Six-
Year TIP, such as the West Valley Road Safe Routes to School Project (Project #23), point to an anticipated
increase in localized non-vehicular activity. This evolving traffic mix supports a more conservative speed limit to
better accommodate the expected increase in pedestrians and cyclists accessing the State Park and Tamanowas
Rock.
CRASH HISTORY AND SAFETY ANALYSIS
MP Date Crash Type Severity Surface Light Time Alcohol Citation
0.959 01/10/24 W/B VEHICLE LEFT ROADWAY I // ARRESTED AT SCENE FOR DUI PDO WET DAYLIGHT 18:00 YES YES
2.636 11/30/23 E/B ENTERED DITCH // COLLIDES WITH TREE PDO DRY DAYLIGHT 10:08 NO NO
2.560 07/26/23 E/B VEH SWERVES TO AVOID DEER // COLLIDES WITH TREE PDO DRY DAYLIGHT 17:34 NO NO
2.000 06/23/23 E/B HIT DEER PDO DRY DAYLIGHT 16:11 NO NO
1.399 05/16/23 E/B LEFT ROADWAY IN LEFT CURVE // FLED SCENE // ARRESTED FOR DUI PDO DRY DAYLIGHT 18:23 YES YES
2.115 05/04/23 DISTRACTED DRIVER CROSSED CENTER LINE// ENTERED DITCH W/B LANE PDO WET DAYLIGHT 17:56 NO NO
1.501 12/12/22 W/B VEHICLE SWERVES TO AVOID OG / LEAVES ROADWAY PDO WET DAYLIGHT 9:20 NO NO
1.159 09/30/22
E/B CROSSED OPPOSITE LANE / OVER EMBANKMENT / COLLIDED WITH
TREE PDO DRY DAYLIGHT 14:15 NO NO
2.240 07/28/22 HIT DEER W/B PDO DRY DAWN 5:18 NO NO
1.914 06/07/22 HIT DEER E/B PDO DRY DAYLIGHT 13:32 NO NO
2.188 10/06/21
E/B 3 VEH / 2 E/B 1 W/B / DOWNHILL LONG CURVE RT / VEH #1 HIGH
RATE NOTICED E/B BRAKE LIGHTS / LOCKED UP BRAKES / SLID INTO W/B
LANE IMPACTED VEH #3 / RETURNED TO E/B IMPACTED REAR VEH #2 INJURY WET DAYLIGHT 16:58 NO YES
1.144 05/26/20 HIT DEER E/B PDO DRY DAYLIGHT 9:20 NO NO
0.954 02/09/20
W/B / DOWNHILL GRADE / PARTIALLY ENTERED W/B DITCH / RE-ENTERED
W/B LANE OUT OF CONTROL / CROSSED W/B SHOULDER / LEFT
ROADWAY / 6' OVER W/B EMBANKMENT / IMPACTED TREE PDO DRY DAYLIGHT 12:00 NO NO
2.418 01/02/20
VEHICLE #1 / DOWNHILL CURVE RT EB / FELL ASLEEP / CROSSED INTO
W/B LANE / IMPACTED BY W/B VEHICLE #2 / VEHICLE #1 LEFT
ROADWAY / 4' OVER W/B EMBANKMENT / IMPACTED FIR TREE INJURY DRY DAYLIGHT 12:20 NO YES
0.618 12/06/19 HIT DEER W/B PDO DRY DARK 6:32 NO NO
1.320 06/09/19 HIT DEER E/B PDO DRY DAWN 5:20 NO NO
2.300 05/10/19
DOWNHILL CURVE RT EB / CROSSED W/B LANE / LEFT ROADWAY / 5'
OVER EMBANKMENT / IMPACTED FIR TREE INJURY WET DAYLIGHT 7:27 YES YES
0.831 09/08/18
E/B / SWERVED FOR DEER / ONTO AND CROSSED WIDE E/B PARKING
SHOULDER / IMPACTED TREE INJURY DAYLIGHT DARK 21:45 NO NO
1.496 04/30/17
DOWNHILL CURVE LEFT E/B / ONTO E/B SHOULDER / LOST CONTROL /
CONTINUED E/B BOTH LANES / SLID ONTO AND CROSSED PRIVATE
APPROACH / ROLLED OVER PDO DRY DAYLIGHT 10:05 NO NO
0.994 02/15/17
W/B / ONTO WB SHOULDER / ENTERED W/B DITCH / CONTINUED W/B /
OVER W/B EMBANKMENT / IMPACTED TREE PDO WET DAYLIGHT 9:22 NO NO
2.025 11/09/15
CURVE LEFT E/B / LEFT ROADWAY / OVER 15' EMBANKMENT / IMPACTED
ALDER TREE PDO WET DARK 16:55 NO NO
2.472 09/30/15
RIGHT ANGLE / ONE STRAIGHT W/B / ONE ENTERING FROM PRIVATE
ROADWAY INJURY DRY DAYLIGHT 11:48 NO YES
0.830 07/26/15
BEAR IN W/B LANE / SWERVED / LOST CONTROL / CROSSED E/B LANE /
LEFT ROADWAY / IMPACTED TREE OFF E/B SHOULDER / ROLLED OVER PDO DRY DAWN 6:30 NO NO
0.867 07/14/15 FELL ASLEEP / LEFT ROADWAY E/B / OVER 5' EMBANKMENT / HIT TREE PDO DRY DAYLIGHT 15:41 NO NO
Anderson Lake Road
Historical Data Overview
A review of crash data for the subject segment from 2015 to 2024 reveals twenty-four reported incidents. The
recorded data indicates a high frequency of roadway departure events, with five incidents resulting in injuries and
nineteen resulting in property damage only (PDO). Environmental conditions were a factor in several cases; seven
occurred on wet pavement, and six occurred during dawn or dark lighting conditions. The most common cause of
accidents during this time was deer strikes resulting in roadway departure.
Crash Rate and Statistical Performance
The calculated crash rate for the 2.77-mile subject is 213.08 per 100 million vehicle miles traveled (100 MVMT),
based on a 10-year study period and an ADT of 1,114. When compared to the national average for total crashes
(which typically ranges between 180 and 200 per 100 MVMT), the subject exhibits a higher crash frequency than
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the national baseline. Furthermore, the section recorded a fatality rate of 0.00 per 100 MVMT, notably lower than
the national rural average of 1.65.
Comparison to National Trends
An analysis of contributing factors reveals that 25% of incidents occurred under low-light conditions (Dark or
Dawn), which is slightly below the national average of approximately 30% (NHTSA). Law enforcement issued
citations in 25% of the reported cases on Anderson Lake Road. By comparison, NHTSA national data indicates that
speeding-related factors are identified in approximately 9% of all police-reported crashes. The fact that the citation
rate on this segment is nearly triple the national average for speed-related incidents identifies driver behavior,
specifically excessive speed, as a primary contributing factor to the safety performance of this road.
Geographic Clusters and Geometric Conflicts
Spatial analysis of the crash data identifies a significant geographic cluster between approximately MP 1.0 and MP
1.5, accounting for 30% of all incidents. The prevalence of roadway departure and fixed-object incidents on curves
suggests that prevailing speeds may exceed the functional capacity of the existing roadside recovery areas and
shoulder widths present on this segment. 29% of accidents involve a deer strike, this is indicative of limited sight
distance. These indicators, combined with the 25% low-light incident rate, indicate that the physical road
environment is a primary factor in the segment's crash profile.
Safety Implications for Speed Adjustment
The current lack of fatal accidents serves as a baseline that allows for preventative safety management rather than
reactive measures. While the total number of crashes on Anderson Lake Road is not exceptionally high, there is a
concerning pattern of drivers losing control of their vehicles. The occurrence of roadway departures and strikes
against fixed objects suggests that motorists are struggling to stay within their lanes given the road’s current width
and curves. Reducing the speed limit to 45 mph brings the legal limit into better alignment with these physical
challenges and the narrow roadside areas. This change is designed to help drivers maintain better control and
preserve the road’s safety record as the area becomes busier with residents and visitors.
PEDESTRIAN AND NON-MOTORIZED USE
Non-Motorized Activity and Equestrian Use
Anderson Lake Road currently lacks dedicated pedestrian or bicycle infrastructure, requiring all non-motorized
users to use the travel lanes. This vulnerability is expected to increase markedly with the anticipated completion of
the Olympic Discovery Trail (ODT) connection through Anderson Lake State Park. Although this road is not a
designated trail route, this link will transform the segment into a primary access point for regional recreational
traffic, leading to an increase in pedestrians, cyclists, and equestrian users crossing or traveling along the roadway.
Roadway Conflicts and Residential Access
Development along the corridor consists of residences on both sides of the roadway, and three recreational
attractions that generate a combination of pedestrian, bicycle, equestrian and recreational/oversized vehicle traffic.
As noted in the Roadway Characteristics section, the usable shoulder width of zero to three feet is often insufficient
to accommodate pedestrians, bicyclists or horses outside of the travel lane. These narrow dimensions, combined
with the 50 mph limit, create an environment where non-motorized users must operate in close proximity to high-
speed vehicular traffic.
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Infrastructure and Safety Constraints
Although no specific concerns were raised by residents regarding walking during hours of darkness, the physical
constraints of the roadway remain a factor for daytime and twilight safety. Expanding the shoulders to provide
dedicated non-motorized paths by filling in existing drainage ditches is not a feasible solution in most areas. These
ditches are critical for managing stormwater during design-level events; reducing their capacity would increase the
risk of roadway flooding and pavement degradation. Consequently, managing vehicular speeds is the most effective
tool currently available to improve safety.
DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS
Speed Limit Analysis
The Operating Speed Method of setting speed limits suggests that the existing 50 mph limit is higher than what is
comfortable for the average driver, as evidenced by an average recorded speed of 45 mph. While the 85th percentile
speed was recorded at 51 mph, it is standard engineering practice to adjust limits downward to account for specific
hazards or conditions that a driver might not immediately perceive.
Anderson Lake Road exhibits several of these context-sensitive factors, including:
• Narrow paved width of 22 feet with virtually no usable recovery area.
• Moderate driveway density of 9.38 per mile, creating frequent conflict points.
• Recreational use stemming from the Anderson Lake State Park/ODT, Tamanowas Rock Sanctuary and
Evergreen Coho Escapee RV Park.
• Horizontal curves that restrict forward visibility and sight distance.
The relatively low crash rate observed over the last decade is likely due to current traffic volumes, which allow
drivers to utilize more of the roadway width when no oncoming traffic is present. However, as residential and
recreational use continues, the current 50 mph limit provides a diminishing margin of safety.
Operational Observations
Staff conducted test drives of the segment to determine the appropriateness of the proposed 45 mph limit. Driving
at 45 mph felt appropriate given the rural nature of the roadway environment, horizonal curves and the frequency of
multi-address driveway approaches. At this speed, perception-reaction time is improved, which is critical for a
roadway utilized by pedestrians, cyclists, and equestrian users on narrow, unpaved shoulders.
The 11th Edition of the MUTCD empowers agencies to prioritize these context-sensitive factors over pure
operating speed data to minimize the risk of serious injury and better reflect the physical constraints of the built
environment.
CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Summary of Findings
Based on this engineering and traffic investigation, the current 50 mph speed limit is no longer appropriate for
Anderson Lake Road. The presence of multiple recreational attractions generating both motorized and non-
motorized traffic, the restricted sight distance on horizontal curves, and the infeasibility of usable shoulders for
vulnerable road users all support a more conservative operating speed. While the 10-year crash history shows a
statistically safe roadway, the high frequency of roadway departures and animal strikes indicates that a lower speed
limit would improve the ability of drivers to maintain lane position within the existing geometry.
R ecom m endations
Per the authority granted under RCW 46.61.415, it is recommended that the maximum speed limit be lowered from
50 mph to 45 mph for Anderson Lake Road from MP 0.00 to MP 2.77.
• Alternative Segmenting: As an alternative, the segment from MP 1.0 to MP 2.77 could be lowered to 45
mph with MP 0.00 to MP 1.00 remaining at 50 mph. The MP 1.0 to MP 2.77 segment contains all three
recreational attractions and accounts for 70.8% of the reported accidents.
• Legislative Action: This reduction should be accomplished by holding a public hearing to update Exhibit A
of Jefferson County Code 10.05.040.
• Implementation: Upon approval, new 45 mph regulatory signs shall be installed as appropriate.
• Public Education: Public Works recommends the temporary placement of a PCMS (reader board) with
speed feedback for a period of 4 to 6 weeks following sign installation to encourage voluntary compliance.
Approval
Prepared By:
Josh Thornton
Real Property Specialist
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References
American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO). A Policy on
Geometric Design of Highways and Streets. 7th ed. Washington, DC: AASHTO, 2018.
Federal Highway Administration (FHWA). Manual on Uniform Traffic Control Devices for Streets
and Highways (MUTCD). 11th ed. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Transportation,
2023.
Federal Highway Administration (FHWA). Speed Limit Setting Handbook. FHWA-SA-24-063.
Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Transportation, 2025.
Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE). Methods and Practices for Setting Speed Limits: An
Informational Report. Washington, DC: ITE, 2012.
Jefferson County Public Works. 2025-2030 Six-Year Transportation Improvement Program (TIP).
Port Townsend, WA: Jefferson County, 2024.
Jefferson County Public Works. Tri-Area Active Transportation Plan. Port Townsend, WA: Jefferson
County, 2022.
National Center for Statistics and Analysis. (2025, October). Summary of motor vehicle traffic
crashes: 2023 data (Traffic Safety Facts. Report No. DOT HS 813 762). National Highway
Traffic Safety Administration. doi: 10.21949/rdm5-2086