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HomeMy WebLinkAbout111411_ra02 BoCe Agenda JEFFERSON COUNTY BOARD OF COUNTY COMMISSIONERS AGENDA REQUEST TO: Board of County Commissioners Philip Morley, County Administrator 1 '/ AI Scalf, Director, Dept. of Community Developmenl~ Stacie Hoskins, Planning Manager M Zoe Aun Lamp, AlCP, Associate Planner fJU DATE: November 14, 201I SUBJECT: Dehberations on the Draft clitruite Action Plan ATfACHMENTS: I) Testimony from the public hearings and written public comments a. Testimony from BoCC Public Hearing 10/17/201I b. Testimony from City Council Public Hearing 10/17/2011 c. Information from notebook presented to Council by Elaine Bailey d. Written comments received by City and County 2) Response to Public Comments 3) Government Leading by Example/Reauthorization of the Climate Action Committee/Revised Work Plan 4) Draft Resolution FROM: " STATEMENT OF ISSUE: '" The Board and City Council will review public comments and determine whether or not to adopt the draft Climate Action Plan as presented at the October 17, 2011 public hearing or propose alternative language. Both bodies will also consider reauthorization of the Climate Action Committee and approval of the revised Work Plan. A copy of the draft Climate Action Plan and the October 17, 2011 Agenda Request can be downloaded at: hno:!/www.co.iefferson.wa.uslcommissionerslAgenda/2011 %20Attach/1 01711 raOl.odf BACKGROUND: The Board of County Connnissioners and City Council held individnaI public hearings on October 17, 2011 to hear public testimony on the draft Climate Action Plan. The period for written public comments began October 5, 20 II and ended on October 19, 2011. The testimony and written comments from both jurisdictions and a response document are attached. The City Council and Board of County Commissioners met in a joint workshop on July 21, 2011 to review the Draft Climate Action Plan. During the meeting members of both bodies provided suggested changes and referred the document to the CAC. Staff made the suggested revisions to the plan and sent it to the CAC members for review prior to release for public review. ANALYSIS/STRATEGIC GOALSIPROS and CONS: While the City and County governments will each have a major role in carrying out the objectives and actions of the Climate Action Plan, successful implementation will require many diverse partners, including neighboring jurisdictions, non-profit organizations, business leaders, and neighborhood associations. The proposed revised work plan lannches the committee into a public outreach campaign designed to inspire 1 BoCC Agenda individual action and lead the community to significant reductions in green house gas emissions. FISCAL IMPACT/COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS: The Action Plan proposes a phased approach. It addresses specifically what the City and County governments can do to lead by example while recognizing that funding and resources are limited. It also recommends measures that the community should consider, as well as outreach, education, and partnership opportunities. Adopting a comprehensive, long-term plan puts the City and County in a better position to take advantage of funding and other opportunities as they arise. Department of Community Development stafIwork is covered by the department's annual budget For 2011 the Department assigned.1O FTE to support the Climate Action Committee. RECOMMENDATION: Staff recommends the Board approve the resolution to: . Adopt the draft Climate Action Plan; · Approve the revised committee work plan as presented at the July 21, 2011 joint session; and · Extend the Climate Action Conunittee to December 31, 2014. REVIEWED BY: fh~ "" tor Date 2 " CB t BOCC 10.17.11 Climate Action Plan 10:01 am Chairman Austin Hearing Draft Climate Action Plan AI Scalf, Stacy Hopkins, Kees Kolff, (Chair, Climate Action Plan), Zoe Ann lamp Introduction - Kees Kolff My report will be very brief. Sunday NVT article: Where did Global Warming Go? "Now that nearly every other nation accepts climate change as a pressing problem, America has turned agnostic on the issue." The bad news is that global warming has become a hot political issue in this country and we still have no federal government policy to really address it adequately. The good news is that more and more states, counties and cities' are really taking the initiative and forging ahead with aggressive plans to save energy, reduce costs, create green jobs and build more sustainable communities, and I'm proud to say that I live in one of those communities that is taking action. The challenge of climate change, it's a problem I'm sure everyone has heard about. The scientific evidence supporting significant climate change from fossil fuel consumption is increasing and so are the consequences. The Wall Street Journal just reported that 10 extreme weather events across the United States this year, over 10 billion dollars of damage each making this the worst financial year in terms of effects of extreme weather. In recognition of these challenges and this problem, you and the City Council have decided to go ahead and adopted a Joint Resolution to achieve a community wide reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to 80% lower than the 1990 levels and to reach that goal by 2050. And this graph you have seen numerous times shows it. The green dotted line is the line that we need to get on in order to get to that 80% reduction by the year 2050. And this seems like an enormous task but, and it is, but I think if we approach it carefully and systematically and have some interim targets which we have set for you as well as part of a plan, I think that it is achievable. To put this into perspective, the Kyoto protocol has set only a 5% reduction for the planet by the year 2012. It's been ratified by 193 countries to date, unfortunately the US is not one of them. And that's a fairly short term goal. Washington State has set a 15% reduction goal by the year 2020. And that is in fact the first target year that we are shooting for. They have also set a 36% reduction by the year 2035. And I don't know how they came up with this number, but they set a 57.5% reduction by the year 2050. And this is for state wide emissions reductions. Our goal at 80% reduction below 1990 levels is more dramatic than that and that's because the best scientific evidence we have been able to look at suggest s that that is really what is required and your are in good company. Many other cities and I think even the state of Califomia has embarked on the same goal. Clallam County, your neighboring county, also has goal of 80% reduction. Jefferson County, our goal is to get to 18% below the 2005 levels which was our baseline for our emissions data by the year 2020. So that's the size of the reduction that we are looking for, and to remind you again, the state wide goal is a 15% reduction by 2020 but that's oftheir 1990 levels. And again just to remind you we have a very detailed Inventory of C02 emissions from the county at large the whole entire county including the government and the city sector of that...this is for the entire county, county wide. And the city and county emissions are part of this total picture. And just to show '( you the difference for the county roughly county operations roughly 50% of your emissions are from transportation in part because there is no large industrial sector the county government is involved in. For the city itself, it is only 25% of the cities government operations emissions. And the biggest one in the city its largest single source of their emissions is their waste water treatment plant which account for about 38% of their emissions. But for the community at large, transportation is almost 40%. Industrial is about 29%, and that's mostly Port Townsend Paper. Residential sector 23% and commercial, 9%. And again we are looking for a reduction across the board for this county but our plan focuses on the city and county operations to lead by example. So we have been following the local communities for sustainability, ICLEI, Milestones, you made a commitment, you empowered a committee to go forward and get an inventory of emissions (Milestone 1.) Then set targets and goals (Milestone 2). And now we are at Milestone 3 to establish the local action plan. And we are looking forward to your doing that as soon as possible so that we can actually get on with implementing the local action plan (Milestone 4) and then obviously over time monitoring and evaluating progress with feedback to make modifications as we go along and as we see what are the opportunities and what are the challenges and requirements for going forward. So how do we see this getting implemented? Well, first of all as I mentioned its government leading by example. There is ample evidence if government leads by example the community is much more likely to follow. Critical next step is public education and involvement. We have outlined a number of community voluntary measures that these are recommended actions and we hope that in developing the appropriate partnerships in our community that we can get the broad kind of support from business, from individuals, from different agencies and organizations in order to go forward. Another important step would be amending those policies that both the City and the County have which would help implement additional, and not only these recommendations, but additional recommendations and there is a recommendation in the work plan, the revised work plan we are presenting to you as well which addresses that as a critical component. As I mentioned, ongoing and monitoring feedback and change. One question that always comes up is the funding. Obviously budgets are tight for all jurisdictions these days and in spite of that we do see that there are some grant opportunities and it should be noted that if you have a plan, a specific plan in place, that is what allows you to then take advantage quickly of grant funded opportunities that come will from a number of locations, whether it's government grants, or private industry grants, or foundation grants. Another very important part of this is the reinvesting the energy cost savings. There are dramatic examples around the country of jurisdictions that have invested money to upgrade buildings, retrofit, increase energy efficiency. They are have paid back and plus some. That money can be reinvested in the community to continue to do the upgrades and to lead to reduced use of energy as well as to create jobs. And again we are looking at partnerships, all kinds, and then bonds, tax incentives. It could also be used to in order to promote both voluntary efforts that need to happen at the community level. And then again we see this as a real opportunity for job growth. And more and more people are seeing the potential benefits. So very specifically the next steps, the October 19th is the end of the public comment period for this round. November 7th we are hoping deliberations by the County and the City, and we are anticipating, hoping for adoption November 14th. In order to continue this work which as you mentioned has taken several years to get to this point, we are asking that the Climate Action committee work be extended until December 31st of 2014 and '" " then there is a revised work plan for that. Phase I is the most urgent thing which needs to be completed now which is the community outreach and engagement component. Phase II is to look at some of those policies that I referred to particularly in transportation and land use that the City and County can implement in order to facilitate even more creative local action on dealing with this problem and realizing the opportunities. Phase III is to really look seriously at preparing for the changes that are already occurring in the State of Washington. And to develop an adaptation plan so that we can be prepared at this point the changes significantly hampered our local community but there is clear evidence and if you go to the state Dept. of Ecology website, right up front they are making climate change the ecological issue. In the opening paragraph they say climate change is the environmental issue that we have to deal with. The State Dept. of Ecology is really working very diligently to address particularly. And to work with the local communities to figure out what's appropriate for adaptation. Then ongoing monitoring, evaluation and feedback. And finally, a recent article in The Scientific American, a quote by John Kerry: "I'd like to say that dealing with climate change is not going to require the greatest sacrifices, but it is going require the greatest foresight Americans have ever had." I think that's what we are trying to do here. We are trying to give you the tools so that in fact, in hindsight, in the future, we can say, today we had the foresight to deal with this problem seriously. The Climate Action Committee is willing to continue to work with you to do that. Public Comment- Gene Farr, Port Townsend I take exception to the statements made here introducing this Climate Action Plan. It's not going to save dollars. Ittakes grants, and all sorts of taxes and things like that to make this thing work. It's going to be a drag on the economy. The green jobs In order to be effective have to be subsidized, another drag on the economy. This is a very dangerous proposal. And contrary to what was said here, as I pointed out a month and a half ago when I gave testimony at one of your hearings then, there are severe flaws in the modeling and the climate work that has been done out there. And more and more is coming in every day. We are finding renowned institutions like MIT, and data from NASA is countering much of this stuff that has been promulgated out there. So it's very dangerous to assume that the climate change has been caused by humans and that it will be catastrophic. A few examples of severe weather in one year do not prove anything. If you look at the history of the severe weather, it's getting less severe as time has gone on even though the temperature has crept up slightly. And that creeping up of temperature is more correlated with solar activity than it is with human C02 use. You finally got the glossary in the thing here right to include water vapor as one of the contributors to global warming. It should have been at the head of the list because climate change, pardon me, the greenhouse effect is dominated by water vapor. If human contribution of CO2 is only 1/10 of 1% of the total greenhouse effect, it's miniscule. And to totally destroy our economy based on that 1/10 of 1% is ludicrous. You shouldn't be doing that. And to expect grants, which is our tax money, that went off to Olympia or Washington DC, where those bureaucracies scraped off their percentage, come back and do .. some good here to underwrite inefficient technologies and bureaucratically chosen technologies to do the job. If you want true sustainability, let the free market work. Let the free market sort out what will replace our fossil fuels. Let's go ahead and use the fossil fuels because the trees love that C02 we are generating. What little it is. OK, they love it. So it's time to let the free market sort out what is sustainable, and get away from this ICUE, this international organization promoted by the United Nations to promote their agenda 21. So here we have this foreign, this international group, trying to drive what we are doing here. The U.s. is correct in not ratifying the Kyoto treaty. Lawrence Cole, Port Townsend I was just looking over the list of things this morning because as expected, there is a lot of refutation going on of the science that has been generated over the last while around the dangers of global warming specifically, the melting of the icecaps, the release of methane from the permafrost and so on that is building up in the atmosphere. As far as I know, these are very Significant parts of the...in terms of.... 97% of the scientists that have been involved in these studies are still very much on board with the notion of climate change as produced by these kinds of things, not just the CO2 but all the things that are impacted by this slow but increasingly rapid warming that is releasing so much more until what I have heard the feedback loop on things like methane release from the permafrost all over the northern hemisphere is close to the point where it is irreversible. And that the temperature change will be going up and the catastrophic effect of that is huge. And so as far as I understand the sciences, essentially the world wide notion of it Is incontrovertible. And so I think (inaudible) humans beings don't generally function very well except In a reactive way after the shlt has seriously hit the fan. And we have an opportunity to rise up into a different (inaudible) be more pro-active instead of reactive. So I urge us to move in that direction. Deborah Stinson, Port Townsend I would like to say that I think at this point we should not actually be discussing whether or not climate change is real or not. I don't think that is the question before us. I really think that the question before us today is are we going to do something about it or not. And there are a couple different ways you can look at that. The way we have presented it is that 99% of the...90% or so of the scientists that are looking at this today do believe that global change...global warming is a significant threat and that mankind's activities are contributing to that. And by following that line of thinking, we can say ok, are we going to do something about it or not. If it turns out that that Is not true, that the other smaller percentage of scientists are correct and that global warming is not a problem and we take action, I don't believe that the actions we take are going have a negative effect. I think there is only a positive upside on the proposals that we are making. It will only help us in reducing our reliance on decreasing fossil fuel availability, global change...climate change is not the only issue we are facing, but we also facing weak oil and other fuel shortages, we have this whole thing about energy and dependence and our security and being reliant on other countries. So everything we can do to move away from that Is a good thing. It creates jobs and that would be an upSide for our economy. ~ . Deborah Stinson, cont. If on the other hand, if it is true, and we chose to do nothing, the impacts are huge on a global scale as well as local. You are looking at massive famine, droughts, an impact that none of us even want to think about for our grand children and I think it would be totally negligent of us to ignore the science and to put our head in the sand and pretend it's not real when we have the opportunity to make the appropriate changes to ensure our future. , " (f9 Public Hearing before City Council October 17, 2011 Public Comment: Stan Willard: a physics and chemistry Instructor at high school and community colleges and a dedicated scientist in that sense. He would like to say simply that you have already made a commitment, don't waiver. If you knew what was happening 56 million years ago with the Paleolithic locene thermal maximum, (that means a big heat wave), the rate that the carbon dioxide was accumulating in the atmosphere was 1.7 peta-tons per year. Now I don't think anybody knows what a peta-ton looks like but it's big. We are currently emitting 9 peta-tons, almost a tenfold increase in that rate. It can only be attributable to human activity. Thafs my comment. Elaine Bailey: has put together a rather large informational packet here that has scientific information, mainly on the carbon neutral question. I am really thrilled that the people who have put this plan together have really worked so hard to address an issue that is vital. I want to read the first part of my statement. We are all concemed with energy reduction, climate change mitigation, and reducing GHGs. I am proud that many in my community have worked so hard to put a plan in action. However the accounting must include all sources of CO2. What we do now and in the next decade is vital. If we had hundreds or even thousands of years to grow more forests before biomass was bumed, excluding biomass C02 from your PTPC accounting figures might not be as drastic a mistake as it is now. From the report I quote "the wood fuel that makes up 75% of their stationary energy use is considered climate neutral within the CACP software and thus was not included as a direct source of C02 emissions. Before using a conclusion that PTPC C02 from biomass Is climate neutral, a concept that was misinterpreted from the older IPCC reports, one should read other authors [?,] M.C. Jacobsen, who have soundly effectively challenged and shown that these faulty assumptions will only lead to massive releases of climate changing Co2 from biomass. Also the newer CACP upgrades do not include this statement. The software used for this project must have been an earlier version. I inquired about the CACP system from the ICLEI and there are free upgrades that include what they now call an information item that recognizes that actual emissions are coming out meaning that emissions associated with biomass should be reported. They db not have to be included in the final accounting but this is a choice, not because the program excludes biomass C02. Therefore the exclusion of accounting for biomass C02 from PTPC was not a condition of the CACP software but a choice. And you have a choice - you have a choice to stand forth and actually claim C02 to be C02. There is no difference biogenc or anthropogenic. Our mother earth does not recognize semantic differences and this is very important. [Gave large binder of material to Michelle who will bring it back in] Kevin Clark: here to give qualified support for the final Climate Action plan formulated by the Climate Action Committee. Though there may be some who genuinely believe there is no climate change or no climate change that is not somehow naturally cyclical, I am convinced that climate change is now a permanent reality mostly or totally caused ~ by the human introduction into the atmosphere of numerous greenhouse gases. In dealing directly with this issue, the City, the Port and the County are courageously accepting responsibility to face our duty as citizens and local government to take actions to begin to remediate and respond to this global crisis. As a current Christian and on behalf of my Christian ancestors I take primary responsibility for the ideology that has lead to this permanent change in the hydrologic cycle. I repent of our reading of Genesis so that domination "over creation" means that all creatures and all elements of air, land and water are only here as resources or commodities for the satisfaction of human wants. This latter description has, however, become part of the basis of our economic theory. As such the non-human entities will be always only commodities for the satisfaction of human wants. Accepting this economic theory means that we will consume resources that will continue to more dramatically alter the hydrologic cycle. The satisfaction of human wants is the only value that the economic system considers. I applaud your decisive and bold actions in the report to address best the issues of climate change and bring about an 80% reduction in the 1990 levels of C02 emissions by 2050 with two caveats. Except in the Mayor's letter there is no mention of carbon neutral. In a recent edition of this document - I believe it was a recent edition - you referred to the CACP software which "ignores C02 emissions from the buming of wood because by intemational convention C02 from wood is considered biogenic" -that was page 10 - Wikipedia defines a biogenic substance as "a biogenic substance is a substance produced by life processes." As far as I can tell with my limited time any reference to biogenic has been removed from the final document. My issue here Is that although the burning of wood is considered carbon neutral by international agreement or by U.S. laws, my claim is that it is not. You deal bravely with climate change but not with carbon neutral. The earlier version says that the PTPC accounts for 29% of the total emissions and for 99% of the industrial subsection of emissions of Jefferson County. As far as I can tell now the cOntents of the former Table 4 "Community and Port Townsend Corporation Emissions" has been incorporated into Appendix C and all other significant data references to PT Paper have been removed from the final draft. On page 81 of the final document of the chart no reference is made to PT Paper as leading to any percent if the industrial total in 2020, 2030 or 2050. I understand that if you don't have to deal with the issue of wood burning and carbon neutrality but if you did the report would be very different. But if it is indeed true that PT Paper is responsible for over 99% of the industrial emissions for the county why have they been erased from any significant data reporting and from any direct responsibility to reach targets. Finally an economic question: is the satisfaction of human wants the only value included in the final document? I say that because C02 affects all life. Diane Haas: is in support of reduction of carbon emissions and all efforts in that direction. I have only one copy of this but I will read one paragraph and give it to you for your consideration. This is from the National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine and National Research Council and it's a news release from May 2011. The new report reaffirms that the preponderance of scientific evidence points to human activities, especially the release of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere has likely caused most of the global warming that has occurred over the last decades. This and then I'm going to skip down .. , " and just say that substantial reductions of greenhouse gas emissions should be among the most important priorities in the national response. [Submitted the full news report.] Scott Walker: I am a member of the committee and certainly endorse what we put together but as you have been told it deals with just 1 % of our greenhouse gas emissions and that's what the government puts out. Then 9% comes from the mill, you have heard comments from Kevin and Elaine about that. 40% of the greenhouse gas emissions come from transportation which as you know has been my subject for 25 - 30 years here. And there's a crossover - Investment by government in significantly enhanced transit, and more pedestrian and bicycle facilities is the way to reduce that 40% that the public puts out in all their driving. So we still have to turn to you to help us get out of this mess. Barney Burke PUD Commissioner and member of the committee. I want to commend the City and the County for trying to address this issue. As you've found out it is not exactly a collection of cheap and easy solutions. There are no surprises there, none of the climate issues have easy solutions overall. Sometimes I get discouraged but then I think it's like retirement planning - you can't do it all at once, you have to take the actions that you can take and realize that some of the solutions are going to come along over time. And , think one of the things that is encouraging to me is seeing that we're less than 18 months from completing the transaction with PSE and when you look at our figure here we'll no longer be producing electricity with coal or natural gas. So there is something in the near term Mure that is an improvement in terms of our own carbon footprint - there are many other things we've done. I would certainly echo Scott's comments about the transportation aspects of this. So thanks for giving this the attention it deserves. Michael Tweiten I recently moved here in July with my wife and three children. I'm a botanist and climate change researcher. I've been working for the University of Wisconsin Center for climatic research as a research associate - remotely obviously - for several years but I came here in my capacity as a citizen to speak about how this research gets turned into action. I really appreciate the effort you are making in this small town to really be a leader in climate change action and governance and how desperately thafs really needed and I appreciate the courage you have to address these issues. I know that this is an ongoing process and you're just beginning this journey together and I appreciate that especially since the effort at the federal and the international level Is so dysfunctional and has basically fallen apart. This is where it comes down to and this action to help our planet and our species will move forward. In the media it is said that the science is not settled often, it is almost a plank of the presidential nominating process right now and I agree with that in some ways because there are two major camps assigned to this in the climate change research. Those that believe that climate change is proceeding incrementally and those that are increasingly concerned that we are heading toward very dramatic tipping points in the climate system where it will get out of our hands and these may be much closer than anyone has believed before I'm not going to endorse either one of those positions but wanted t to say that that is really the debate. The debate is about how close we are to something that is beyond our control and it is imperative for you to act on this and also feel a sense of urgency because you are leading that way. Doing larger things first might be a really good idea. I also wanted to say that by reducing our impact and our footprint - it is good for that to be done at the govemment level because we can't all do it as individuals. I personally have a long ways to go and many people have gone online and calculated their footprint on various online calculators. I did mine and found that if everyone lived like I did in my family it would take 3.2 earths to accommodate that resource use. I felt really bad about that being an ecologist and someone who tums off the lights all the time and switches out the bulbs and everything else but this site lets you do it in different countries. I tried my same activities in the country of Ecuador which has a fairly high human development index for Latin America and it would only take .7 earths with the same activity and that is all about public infrastructure and govemment action and military defense and other actions we take collectively not just as individuals. So reading through this plan I really like the focus on growing the local economy respecting population growth and how that comes about will make a big difference in how our community actually reduces its impact as it develops. I appreciate the focus on land use especially designated urban growth areas so that people don't find themselves out in the middle of the woods having to use their car without being able to connect into a transportation system and I also as a botanist like the emphasis on sustainable forestry and getting our trees and our people to be working together to help their common future. Mainly I just appreciate moving to a town where a lot of this is going on and I appreciate your leadership in this issue. Gretchen Brewer - first would like to congratulate you for taking on this challenge as it is essential as all the previous speakers have said. I think there are incredibly good people on the project and I am really surprised in a way that they were led to use outdat6d software and I guess my question is - would be to them what version of the software they were using. And encourage them to encourage you to press for the committee to redo the exercise including the emissions from Port Townsend Paper because I think if you do that you will see that by ignoring the emissions from Port Townsend Paper we can do all we want but it pretty much becomes a feel good exercise and doesn't get us closer to where we want. I would like to give you the present 2009 emissions from PT paper and I will point out that they are not required by ecology because they have a special status so are not required to report C02 emissions but Nippon in Port Angeles is comparable and if you do a comparison currently PT Paper would release approx 281 mil pounds of C02 in a year. It doesn't matter how you account for it, it has to get reabsorbed somehow. And with the biomass project proposed that will double. Furthermore the greenhouse gas emissions they are reporting they will reduce actually when you look at it they are not that significant. The . amount they would reduce so they are actually doubling most of their greenhouse gas emissions and I can give you more data on that later. For now I will give you their emissions inventory so you can compare these numbers and again double them for what it would be with the biomass project. [Gives report to someone]. That will be a useful tool to compare to the numbers in the report. The other thing as far as transportation that will happen his biomass project with diesel trucks - they say going off ., r a certain mass of fossil fuel. That will reduce one half truckload a day but the increase in biomass increases by 15 - 18 trucks per day 50 you get a net increase of 5500 - 6500 diesel trucks per year and that will add significantly to our transportation greenhouse gases and thafs really hard to counter with our individual transportation choices. In closing, the groundwork has been done and is incredible. I would like to see the numbers redone and I really don't think we need to choose between jobs and good health and good air. We are creative enough we can come up with a solution that doesn't compromise our health and the environment. . '\ k.c',,~,:" ~ ""'- " Online ref- not presente<j in printed fOrJl:l. hl\p:llelimatesolutions.orglproggtms/NBI/foresby-stories-and-resourccs Pg.3of4 f;1,:"e, '&.:It-J B.wt<j f"cr1).-~ eM-~4,'ov ht\p:llwww.nrdc.orwcnerl\Y/forcstsnoIfueUflIeslforests-nol-fuel.pdf http://www.birdlife.olj1leu,rpdfslBioenerl\Y Joann.um Research.pdt http://www.mafo~orglC'.;l)"bo)l.pdf http://www.ml!forest...orQIDrfi54qy~r.pdf hl\p:/lcn. wiklpedi~~viki/fl!rtjcul!lles Ptinted references 1. http://www.stanford.edu/grouplefmhliacobsonl 2. hl\p:llnohiomas!Jpuminll.orgldocsll\!1edical health !elterFINAL2 pdf 3.Statemenl by William Bl;tkeleyMD 4. Testimony Before the S~ OIl Nationaal Parks, Foresls,alId Public ~...March 3,2009 Mark E.Hannon,Phd, RIcIutrdon$ Endowed Chair and Professor in FoieslSclence. Oe}lll.llrr1enlof Forest &osystemund Society, OJ'!:80n State University. S.IrttyJlwww.sclentificamerican.com/artide cfm~id_ood.bumin ll-power-olanl'!H:llrhon-neutral-billh- ~ 6.lil\p:/lwww.pl.pi.nellw.p-comentllijlload.J2011l06la!a-energy-pnii<tv-posilion pdf 7. Copy ofPowerpolnt by Rot: Bill Moomaw, Tufts UniveJSity alId Ik Mary 8cx:llh, Massachusetts Energy Alliance. 8. Dr. Mary Stuart; Sooth. ProfCllSional ProtlIe. 9. Letter to Denator BernIe Sandel'll from Professor Willliam Moomaw, PbD DiRCtor, Center for International Envinmment and Resoun:e Policy, Thffli. University Professor Lara SJrore,SJu,ppard. PbD. Department of Ikonomics, Williams College Dr. Mary S. Booth, PbD, Partnership for Policy Integrity 10. Review of the Manomet Stud)' by Dr. Mary S Booth. 11. Letter to The HonombIe NllDi:y PelOSi and The Honomble Hany Reld May 17, 20] O. from a laige contingent of uS Scientists and professms. 12. www.scienmag.oq: vol.326 23 October 2009. Fixing a Critical Climate A""')Imtlng Error 'nmothyD. SelIrelWlgerelal... . 13. AmeriClJ)l Lung Association -June24,2009. Letter 10 Homomb]e Henry A. Waxman and The Honorable EdW88!ll J.Markey. 14;btt:I'enropa.ngu.orgl'lvlew=mtlchl&uri=/joumalslgI/gI0803l2007mm31101l207GL03110]~=20 (Ill, JAcobson - on ~ causal link between carbon dloxldealld air pollution mortality. Mark A. Jl!f;OQson ]4a. h\1p:llenvironment.1Iresearehwcb.-owclYJarlilcclnews3240 I Carbon Dioxide Increase causes air poI1titlon deaths. 15. hllp:llwww.pf-pLnellwp-conlenlluploadsl20J !/03/Hannou Searehinller Moommv-Leuer pdf Pg.4of4 Letter to Members of the Washinton State Legislature, Prof.Mark E. Hannon, Research Scholar Timothy D. Searchinger and Prof. William Moomaw Mark E. Hannon Richardson Chair and Professor in Forest Science, Depal1ment of Forest Ecosystems and Society, Oregon State University TImothy D. Searchinger Research Scholar and Lecturer Princeton University, Transatlantic Fellow, The German Marshall Fund of the U.S. William Moomaw Director of the Center for International Environment and Resource Policy The Tufts Climate Initiative Co..founder of Global Development and Environment Institute Professor of International Environmental Policy The Fletcher School, Tufts University 16. Bioenergy-GCB Bioenery(2011),doi: 10.1111/j.1757-1707.2011.012.x CO2 emissions from bimas conbustion for hioenergy:atmospheric decay and contribution eo global wanning. Freancesco Cherubini et all . Norwegian University of Science. I ,,' ;J. ~: .J Stanford Unlversi'Y Professor - Mark l.)acobson 10/8/11 4:2 PM i.. ;;4 I Mark Z. Jacobson Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering Director, AtmosJlherelEnergy Program Senior Fellow, Woods Institute for the Environment Senior Fellow, Precourt Institute for Energy CUCK HERE FOR PROGRAM rN ATMOSPHERE I ENERGY B.S. Civil Engineering, B.A. Economics, and M.$. Environmental Engineering (1988) Stanford University M.S. (1991) and Ph.D. (1994) Atmospheric Science. University of California at Los Angeles S<<:;entifie Ibwkgro~d The main goal of J~bson's ~ch is to understand physical, chemical, and dynamical processes in the atmosphere better in order to solve atmospheric problems, such as global w~ng and urban air pollution, with improved scil,ntific insight and more accurate predictive tools. He also evaluates the atmospheric and Pp.a1th effects of propQsed e~rgy- and transportation solutions to global warming and air pollution, maps .ewable energy resources, and studies optimal methods of integrating renewable electricity into the grid. To accomplish many of these goals, he has developed and applied numerical solvers to simulate gas, aerosol, cloud. radiative, and land/ocean-surface processes. In 1993-4, he developed the world's first gas- aerosol-transport-radiative air-pollution model with interactive feedback to weather on any scale, and in 2001, the fIrSt nested global-tbrough-urban air-pollution-weather-climate model. In 2000, he discovered that black carbon, the main component of soot particles, might be the second-leading cause of global wa.nning in terms of radiative forcing after carbon dioxide. This finding provided the original scientific basis for proposed U.S. laws H.R. 17(j() (Black Carbon Emissions Reduction Act of 2009, March 26, 2009), H.R. 7250 (Arctic Climate Preservation Act, Oct 2, 2008), S.R. 110-489 (Black Carbon Research Bill, Sept 17, 2008), S.849.18 (Bill to Require the EPA to Study Black Carbon. April 22, 2009), and in part S.39731H.R. 6482 (The Diesel Emissions Reduction Act of 2010, DERA). In 1999 he discovered that strong UV- absorbing nitrated and aromatic organic particles and gases (types of brown carbon) could explain observed preferential UV light attenuation in polluted air and in 2001, provided the first global calculation of the impact of such brown carbon on climate. His findings that carbon dioxide domes over cities and carbon dioxide buildup since preindustrial times have enhanced air pollution mortality through its feedback to particles and ozone served as a scientific basis for the Environmental Protection Agency's 2009 approval of the flI'St regulation of carbon dioxide from vehicles in the United States (the California waiver). He has also studied the effects of aerosol mixing state on atmospheric heating, the effects of biomass burning on climate, the effect of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles on air pollution and the ozone layer, the effects of aerosols on winds and precipitation, the effects of ethanol and diesel vehicles on air quality, the effects of agriculture on air pollution, the effects of aircraft on climate and air quality, and the effects of urban swfaces on nate. His group's development of the world's first wind map based on data at the height of modem wind hltp://www.sta'hford.edu/lJtOUp/efmllJ)acobson/ Page 1 of Stanf(lrd UnlversitV Pr(lfessor - Mark Z. Jacobsc>n 10/8/114:21 PM ~'\-~ .. turbines has served as a scientific justification for the wind component of the Repower America and Pickens Plan energy proposals. He also coauthored the first plan to power the world for all purposes with wind. water, and sunlight (WWS). To date, he has published two textbooks and about 115 peer-reviewed journal p...;cles. Several hundred researchers have used computer models that he has developed. In 2oos,he 1 .:ived the American Meteorological Society Henry G. Houghton Award for "Significal1t contributions to modeling aerosol chemistry and to understanding the role of soot and other carbon particles on climate." His paper, nEffects of ethanol versus gasoline9ncancer alJd mortality in the United States" was the top-accessed article in Environmental Science and Technology for April-September, 2007. His paper, "Review of energy solutions to global wanning, air pollution, and energy security," published in January 2009, is the top- accessed paper ever published in the journal Energy and Environmental Sciences as of September 2011. His paper, "Influence of future anthropogenic emissions 011 climate, natural emissions, and air quality" was the top-accessed paper during May 2009 among all Journal oj Geophysical.Research journals. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering The leny Yang and AkikoYama7jJ!ci Environment & Energy (Y2E2) Building 473 Via Ortega, Room 397 Stanjord University Stanford, CA 94305, USA Tel: (650) 723-6836 Fax.: (650) 723-7058 Email: lacobson@stanford.edu ConicuIum Vita r 'fTeDt PhD Graduate Students: . Mary Cameron . Bethany Corcoran . Mike Dvorak . Diana Ginnebauih . Elaine Hart . Maggie PalruIa . Idania Rodriguez . Eena Stp. Maria . Eric Stoutenburg . John Tefl Hoeve Graduate Student Alumni: . Cristina Lozei Arc~q . Frank Freedman . Ann Fridlind . Gerard Ketefian . Alice Ryan . Ana Sandoval . Amy Stuart . Jordan Wilkerson Irttp:llwww.stanford.eOu/group/efrnh/Jacobsc>n/ 1'1qJe2of6 Stanfotd Un_ Professor - Mark Z.jacnbson 10/8/114:21 PM .~, ~1: CmTentPostdoctoraJ Researchers : . Gemrd Ketefian l.-1doctoral Researcher A1nmni: . Cristina Lozei Archer . Whitney Colella . Ping Ding . Jinyou Ljang Testimony to U.S. House C.ommittee on Black Carlmn and Global Warming Testimony to U.s. 'Qonse Committee on Air Pollution Health Imnaets of Carbon pjoxide Testimony to U.s. EP A to Reconsider a Denied Waiver to Allow California's Control of Carbon Dioxide Testimo.I\Y to U.S. EPA on fro.gosed F.ndangerm\!nt Finding TED Debate on Renewable Versus Nudear Power Text~oks: Fundamentals of Atmospheric MQdeling Fundamentals of Atmospheric Modeling. 2d ed. hllp://www.stanfotd.edu/group/efmh/jacnbson/ Page 3 of Stanford Unl1/e.."" Professor - Mark Z. jacObson 10/8/114:21 PM f' ,,1t AtnunpMlk pOHVTlON --- - Atrri()~phelic.-Eollution: Ristot:}'. S~illnce, and Regulatton Air Pollution and GIQbl.}1 Warmin~: HistpQI. Science. and Solutions Some papers organized by topic (please see Curriculum Vita for fnlllist) I. Energy resources and effects on the atmosphere a. Exptoilin~ Wind Ven;u$; Coal b. U.S. and Global Windpower Distribution and Statistics c. Effects of bvdroj!en fuel cell vehlcle.~ on air IlOnution. climate. and lllrlIlOspheric 07.(!ne d. The effect \;In pbotchemlcal slJlOQ of convemnQ the U.S. fleet of easo1ine veh!(:Ie.~ to modern diesel v~hlcles e. Effects of conveninll to ethanol (E85\ vehi(:l~ IIn air ooIlution and climate f. Review of solutions to !!lobal warminl!, nlrlK'lIutlon. nnd e.l!lm!y SllCurity g. A oatb. to Rasta/nable ener~ by 2031) h. Effects of In'ie wind farms on ene'W In tbe almosohere i. C.Alifornla offshore wind ener!!v potential j. Power OIIlDut variations of co-located offshore wiad ltlr\lilJes and wave e1]e~ converters In C'.allfomla I. Hlgh-resolution~sol ~olutlon near the point of en$slon a. Evolution of nallQj)llnicle size and mix!a!! slate near the poiulof emission b. Enhanced ~Iat\on due 19 evapomtion and its effect ol) nano.particle eVolution III. Regional climate, UV. and~.effects of aerosols. a. Developrilentand apollcation of a new air pollutjol) modelin!! svstem -- Part III, Aerosol- phase sil1)ufations b. Develo.j)ment and aj)J)lielltion of a new air DOli uti!)!! model;n!! SYStem - Pl!rt II. Aerosol-modufestrueture and desill1l C. Studyinj! the el'fects ~f aerosols on venieal ollQjplysls over an urban airshed d. IsoJatln'l nitmted and Ilemmatle aerosols and nitrated aromatic gases as'sources of ultlllviolet li!!ltt abso'1)llon e. Effects of aerosols on C'.aHfornia and South Coast climate f. Wind reduction by aerosol IJ'Ini\'les IV. Effee!s ofsoll moisture,lrrigation, and agrleulttn'e on regionallillltitate and air pol1ution a. Effect of soil moisture on temoerah.fl'll. winds. and wflula~t concentmtlons in Los AnQe1es b. The effecl~ of amcull\1TCon c;llrimte and nlr poUlltlon in C'..allfomia V. Regional and nested global-urban studies of photQchemlcnl smDg a. Development and anoHcation of a new air pollution modeHn~ system. Part I' CJlls-phase simulations b. Development and application of a newllir pollution modeHn!! system Part III. Aem.'lO'-l'base simulations c. GA TOR"GCl\4M:2. A slndv of dav- and 111~httlme O7.0ne lavers aloft. ozone in national IJ'Irk.~, and weather durinp the SARMAP field eampaiQn. d. The effect on ohotOehemieal smo!! of convertin!! the U.S. fleet of !!lISOline vehicles to modem die.qel vebicle.q. http:J /_.stanfor<J.edU/grou~Jefmh/Jacllbson/ Page4of6 Stanford UnlVorsIty Professor - Mark Z. Ja<obson 10/8/11402 PM f~ ~ e.On'thecausallink between carbon dio:ddeand pollution mortalil;y. f. ThC! llnhancement of 1"",,' air DOllution by urban CO2 domes. g. The l!,lolll!l-throueh-ufbl!ll3-D ~imuJation of near-e~pliqt gas photochemistry I. Global direct radlatI\'~ f9R:ing of soot and'9tltClf Ilerosols lUld global liquid/solid aerosol composition a. Aoljysicallv-ImoM ~ent of elemental carbon o.plies: Impllcatlpns forelobal directJorcine of aerosols b. SIron!! mtllative headn~ dtieto.the01illini state of black carbon in atmosplierlc aerosol~ C. GIGbaI direct mdiatlve forcinj due to multicomDOnent anlhronooehic and natl1lll aerosols , vn. Multiple sIze-distribul:ioo Studies of the mixing 1lIatC' of aerosol/! 8Jld clouds a. Modeline~ldation amonI' Jll'I1icles of different COJ1Ulosilion and size b. Strone radiative heatine d~ !Dthemi~inl! state of black carbon in atmoSDh~c aet'osofs C. Al)lllvsis of aerosol inteiJIl'tions with numerical techniques for solvi'\!l C()!llIUlation. nucleation. condensation, diSllQlution. and revel8ible cllemistrv aTllOl]a multiple size distJjbuilon d. Devell)pment of ml;(ed-nl1ase clouds from multiple aero.oroI si7.e di!ltributions and the effect of the clouds 01l1lel:OSo1 removal e. Evolution ofn~cle size and II!jxin!1 Slllte near the point oremission f. Climatll response of soot. accountinl! for feedback to cloud a~sorvij9n g. Thy inl'lu~ce of future anthrQ1lO~enic emissions on climate. natuml emissio!l11. and air auality VIII. Effects of aerosol particles anll~ gases onglobal climate a. Control of fossil~fuel particulate blaek carbon 3IId o.r~nic matter. IlOssiblv the most effective method of slowing eloMI warminll b. The llI\Ort-term coolineoor1on\:-teqn ~obal warmine due to bipma9S burning C. Clililate ~nse of soot. ~ntiol! for feedback to snow amlsea ice albedo and emissivity d. Climate ~~!' of soot. accountin!! for feedback to cloud absomtioo e. Short-tenn effet;:ts 'If controllingTossH-fuel soot. hiofuel soot and """"S. and methane on climate. the Arctic. anl! ~ f. Eff~ of all individual commercial aireraft f1i!!hts worldwid<< 00 climate. contmils. and air pollution IX. Numerical tel:hniques a. SMVGEAR: A Snarse-matrix. vectorize4 Gear code for atmosoheric; m~ls b. Madeline C03l!ulaijpnamonl! particles of diljerent l;!>mposition and size C. Simulating condensatlonal~w\\'lh. ~apomtiol1. and coaeulation o{aerosols usin!! a combinedmovine al19 stationary size !'rid d. Simulatill!! eauilibrlum within aerosols and noneouilibrltrm beJwcen eases and aerosols e. Develonmentand anolication of a Ilew jlir pollution modelinll system -- Part U. Aero!;lJl-mQduJe structure and desil!ll f. Comoutetioo oflllobal Dhotochemlstry with SMVGEAR U. g. m t solve n 'onal n issolu'o I 'on whe ed to reactions h. lrttorovement of SMVGEAR IT on vector and scalar machines throueh absolute error tolerance control i. StudV!o!! the effect of calcium and maenesium on size-distributed nitmte and amlll9'\ium with EOInSOLY U j. GATOR-GCMM; A Illobal-throu!!h urbao scale air oollution and weather forecast model. I. Model desierl and treatment of subJ!rid soil. vegetation. roads. rooftoos. water. sea il(!:.an<! supw k. Analvsis of aerosollllteractions with numericaltechniaues for solvine cOl!eulation. nucleation. condensation. dissolution. and reversible chemistry amon!! multiole size distrihutions 1. Develornnent of mixed-ohaseclouds from multiDle aerosol si7.e distributions and the effect of the clouds on ae~1 bIlp:l/www.stanford.edu/group/efmb/ja<:ab$on/ Page 5 6 Stanford UnlYenilty Professor - Mark Z. Jacobson lO/8/114=ZJ PM .~ 2' removal m. A rq)Jled method of pammet~rizin!! absomtion coefficienlsamonl! multinle""""" simultaneously from llne-bv-llne ;!lllll D. Studvinl! """"n acidification with conservative. stable nUflIerical schemes for nonequilibrium air-ocean el\:chanee and ~.eouilibriUOO ch~lI1i~ O. A solution to. the omblem of non eam1lhriumacltl1b<- ~.-partlcle transfer at Ion!! time S1q) p.NumtJ!i<;lll solution to droJ1l;l)a1CSCC1!~uPl\'lth a volume-cQnservhlg. positive-def'iOlte. and unl;OJlditionally- stable scheme. li'eatQresof G4TOR-GCMOM~ the mlXlel nsedfQr the above mtt1f~_ Courses. taught . CEE 063/263C Weather andStOrn1A · eRE 064I263DAir.Po]Jution: From Urban Smog tll Global Ch(!nF . en WA Nr ~oDntion Modeling . om 26JB NnmeneaJ Weather Prediction http://_,stanfOr<i.\ldU/group/efmll/Jacobson/ Page 6 016 . .. cv EcoLaw Massachusetts 61 Grozier Road Cambridge MA 02138 Contact Dr. William Sammons, 781-799-0014, drsammons@aol.com Attorney Margaret Sheehan 508-259-9154, meg@ecolaw.biz October 20, 2009 Senator Amy Klobuchar, Chair Subcommittee on Children's Health Environment and Public Works Committee Hart Senate Office Building Washington, D.C. Senator Lamar Alexander Ranking Member Subcommittee on Children's Health Environment and Public Works Committee Dirksen Senate Office Building Washington, D.C. Re: Health Effects of Biomass Burning Under S. 1733, "Clean Energy Jobs and American Power Act" Dear Senators Klobuchar and Alexander: As a pediatrician, I have long been aware of your efforts and concerns for children's health and preventive measures that benefit children and their families while reducing our Nation's medical care costs. With Dr. William Blackley of North Carolina, Dr. Ronald Saff of Florida, I write to inform you of the harm to children's health from biomass burning, which is being promoted and subsidized under the Energy and Public Works Committee's Clean Energy Jobs and American Power Act (CRJAP A) as a method of producing electricity in lieu of burning coal. On October 14,2009, the Hampden County Medical Society (MA) published formal opposition to the construction of the Russell (MA) 50 MW wood burning biomass plant on the grounds that it presents an unacceptable 1 f ~ public health risk. [A copy of the letter is enclosed]. Similarly, on July 14, 2006, the American Lung Association of Massachusetts stated "serious concerns" about the "significant impact of this project lRussell Biomass wood burning plant] on air quality"[enclosed]. The Florida Medical Association issued Resolution 08-21 urging its state government to adopt policies to minimi7.e the approval of new incinerators such as biomass burners [enclosed]. The Oregon Chapter of the American Lung Association has also come out against biomass combustion [enclosed]. These are only some of the public statements from professionals around the country documenting biomass burning and renewable energy incinerators as a source of a new and growing public health threat. Biomass burning is dirtier than coal and makes climllte change worse. As citizens concerned about the public health impacts of air emissions from biomass burning power plants on our communities, we have studied permit applications and other public documents relating to biomass burning power plant proposals in Massachusetts, North Carolina, Georgia, Oregon, Indiana and Florida, and consulted with concerned citizens in several other states about biomass proposals (including Maine, Vermont, Texas, and Arkansas). Our review of current research publications, data from company proposals, environmental impact reviews, and government analyses leads us to conclude that these power plants, promoted as "clean energy", will have a direct negative impact on the health of our Nation's children: both immediately and cumulatively throughout their lifetimes, and for generations to come. Paradoxically, however, despite the substantial evidence in the public domain of the harm from biomass burning, this method of power production is given preferential treatment and lucrative subsidies in CEJAPA. At a time when our nation is struggling to meet the challenges of rising health care costs, the U.s. Senate climllte change legislation provides federal taxpayer money to subsidize and promote biomass burning to generate energy. The consequence will be the increased incidence and severity of multiple cardiopulmonary diseases, premature birth, developmental disabilities, and cancer. At a time when the Senate is dehllting health care reform legislation. it would be ironic indeed if that same body also chose to act in a way that harms public health and raises health care costs. Our young children will bear both the financial and personal health legacy of the provisions in CEJAP A that underwrite biomass burning; the consequences for them will last a lifetime. 2 t'. .. On July 7, 2009, David Hawkins of the Natural Resources Defense Council testified before the full Senate Environment and Public Works Committee. There, he warned about a "biomass loophole." Indeed, the problem is broader and deeper than the specifics of his testimony suggests. Here are four factors that ought to be placed front and center in the calculus of considerations regarding biomass. 1. The air pollution and climate ..hHnge impacts of biomass burning are worse than burning coal. The Rimple fact is that the combustion of biomass (wood. trash. construction debris. etc.) is "dirtier" thlln burning coal: per megawatt hour of power generated, in comparison to coal, burning wood to produce electricity generates 15 times as much carbon monoxide (CO, a toxic air pollutant), significantly more CO2 (the most prevalent greenhouse gas), more NOx, more So" and comparable amounts of particulate matter! [see plant data chart]. Biomass burning also emits volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in significant quantities. NOx and VOCs are two ingredients of the ground level ozone that is dangerous to human cardiorespiratory health. The particulate matter from biomass burning, especially PM 25 and nanoparticulate matter, is an air pollutant associated with asthma, heart disease, and cancer, for which no safe level is known. Information on the hazards of particulate pollution is available from EP A at http://www.epa.gov/particulates. Appro)Cimately 150 biomass burning plants are in the permitting pipeline in the United States, made economically attractive by subsidies and tax credits under the 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 and the Energy Policy Act of 2005, as well as the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act.2 The incentives for biomass burning in CEJAPA as a 1 Based on study of permit applications from three approximately 50 MW wood burning biomass plants In Massachusetts: Pioneer Renewable Energy (Greenfield. Environmental Nollllcatlon Form), Palmer Renewable (Springfield) and Russell Biomass (RusseD)(Alr Permn Application). See also. LIberty Green Renewables permit applli:atlon, Indiana, and Nortb Carolina Flbrowatt application. In Massachusetts, the newest and "state of the art" proposed biomass power plant in Greenfield Massachusetts will emit more C02, VOC's, and particulate, and nearly as mnch NOx per MWb of energy prodnced as the 50 year old Mt Tom coal plant in nearby Holyoke, MA. A coal burning plant in Lyon, MA, one of a gronp called the "filthy flve" by Massachusetts by environmental gronps, plans to switch from boming coal to burning constrnction debris biomass. 2 Because biomass burning Is considered a renewable energy project, the federal government can pay as much as 65% of the capital cost through tax subsidies. Americans pay more for the electricity 3 .--., -' means of generating "renewable energy" will only amplify the harmful public health impacts from these power plants if they proliferate. 2. Even though biomass burning is dirtier than coal, biomass carbon dioxide emissioDS are ignored under CEJAPA. Carbon dioxide emissions from the combustion of biomass are not included in the total accounting of U.S. emissions, and therefore they are not included under the carbon ClIP in CEJAP A. Based on a false assmnption about carbon neutrality, carbon emissions from biomass combustion are treated as if they do not exist under the EP A's regulatory system and the provisions of CEJAP A: Therefore biomass power plants do not have to buy emission allowances for carbon dioxide.' Similar provisions are contained in the Senate's Energy and Natural Resources Committee "American Clean Energy and Leadership Act" and in HR. 2454, the Waxman-Markey bill passed by the U.s. House in June 2009. generated by biomass power because It Is considered "renewable." The premium should be paid only for "'clean" energy. 3 Section 700 of CEJAPA exemplS biomass bwniog from the Act's requirements for allowances and from the greenhouse gas emissions cap. CEJAPA. i 700 (13)(A), Definitions (p.556) defines 0 covered entity as "Aoyelectriclty source". However, i 7'22. (Probibition of Excess EmissIons), (b)(l) (p.442) says 1bal biomass is power is not a covered saurce: "ELBCr.RICITY SOURCES.-For 0 covered entity described ia section 700(13)(A),1 emissioa allowance for eacb ton of carbon dioxide eqnivalent of greenhonse gas !bat such covered entity emitted in the previous calendar year, excluding emissions resulting fn>m the emnbustion of- (A) petroleum-based or coal- based liquid fuel; (B) natum1 gas liqnid; (C) renewable biomass or gas derived fn>m renewable biomass; or (0) petroleum coke. (emphasis supplied) Biomass em;.<rinn. 3Ill not included ia setting the cap limits noder CEJAP A (lhewfowthe cap nmnberdoes nolinclude all U.s. GHG emissions. The CEJAPA cap number is nOlbasedon any particnIar mudel (EPA did several models to determine the totaI U.s. emissions, all of wbieb actnaIIy greatly exceed the "cap" as presented ia SRlOIAFI2OO9), bot it is establisbed tbrongb 0 mechanism described in CEJAPA i 700 (8)(P. 55S), wbieb slates: CAPPED EMlSSIONS.- The tenD 'capped emissions' means greenhouse gases to wbieb section 7'22. applias, inc1nding emissions from the combustioa of natum1 gas, petroleum-based or coal- based liquid fuel, petroleum coke, or natum1 gas liqnid to whicb sectioa 7'22.(b)(2) or (8) opplias. In sum,lbe effective cap is the number of allowances allowed (CEJAPA. i 721(e)(I), (p. 432)(Emissloa allowances), set for 2020 014,873,000,000 tons of CO2 eqnivalent for the United SlnIes. However, since biomass combustion does not bave to get allowances (noder i 7'22.), it is not inclnded in Ibe i72l(e)(l) nnmber. In effect !bat reduces Ibe rednction of emissioas from 2005 levels from 20% to approximately 8%. 4 " " The result of the cap setting process in CRJAP A is that 700,000,000 tons of C02 emitted in 2020 by biomass burning will be in "excess" of the official cap set by the number of allowances.4 This means unreg1l1nted biomass carbon dioxide emissions would be an addition of 14.4% "above" the total allowance cap, or approximately 12.6% Qfthe total emissions in the Nation for the year 2020 under CRJAPA if the "cap targets" are met. Significantly, the regulatory loophole that allows biomass C02 emissions to be ignored makes it impossible for the United States to meet the "cap" targets. Moreover, the existence of the biomass loophole makes investment in biomass plants extremely lucrative because these power plants, unIike their competitors (the coal plants), do not have to bear the cost of buying allowances. In combination with the unmerited additional revenue from renewable energy credits, the bill will create conditions that encourage the construction of power plants that pollute at a level of CO2 greater than the coal plants the bill seeks to displace. All this is being done under the banner of combating global warming. 3. By subsidizing biomass boming, CEJAPA will harm the public health by causing an increase in air pollutiou emissions, particuIarly particulate matter, and ground level ozone that cause asthma in children. The effect on public health of the biomass loophole is two fold. First, there will be an increase in the overall quantity of U.S. emissions of criteria pollutants because there will be more biomass plants. Second, the resultant exacerbation of climate change impacts from biomass plant emissions will have dire effects on the health of children in this country and throughout the world. The worldwide devastation that will be caused by population displacement and the spread of infectious disease is difficult to quantify or monetize given the extended time period it takes to realize the total effects of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels on the planet. 4 This figure Is calculated by taking the graph at htl;p:llwww.ela.doe.goY/olaf/analYSl~paperlhlomass/fil!Ure4.htmlthatshows projected combustion based blom= power generation In 2020 would be 70,000 MW with a 20% RPS. The 50 MW wood burning blom= plant In Greenfield, MA wl1I emit more than 500,000 tons a year of C02 (see Environmental Notification Form, p. E-2, M=achusetts Environmental Polley Act FOe No. 14388.) Extrapolating this means that under a 20% RPS mandate, In 2020 combustion based biomass would produce conservatively 700,000,000 tons of CO2 emissions each year [see chart Included]. 5 ~ T Likewise, even in the United States, the there will be significant negative effects from prolonged exposure to increased levels of particulates and ground level ozone in terms of cancer incidence and increased risk of central nervous system developmental damage (Clean Air for California, @2OO4 Environment California Research and Policy Center), and increased risk of premature birth [http://www.epa.gov/oar/particlepollution]. In the realm of respiratory disease, recent findings show that the exposure to higher levels of ozone and particulate matter canse asthma in children (Lancet. 2002 Peb 2;359(9304):386-91). Previous data, on shorter exposures at lower levels, showed that symptoms were aggravated and/or prolonged (JAMA, 2003; 290: 1859- 1867), but now the evidence shows that such exposure for greater duration at levels already occurring is cansative. In addition, further research has shown that the effects of exposure has not only a "trigger" effect, but also a sustained effect, which compromises cardiorespiratory physiology for days (SOTA 2009, American Lung Assoc, wwwlungUSA.org). The impact is greatest with children, and people of all ages with pre-existent chronic disease. In California, the highest incidence of asthma corresponds to the areas with the highest pollution levels [see SOTA 2009]. Nationwide, the American Lung Association estimates that the cost of treating asthma in children is more than $21 billion dollars. In Atlanta, during the 19% Olympics when the air pollution was kept lower than normal primarily through transportation restrictions, treatments of asthma in the emergency room dropped 55% and the nnmOOr of office visits for asthma control decreased 61 % [lAMA 2001; 285:897-905]. With climate change, heat waves will also increase dramatically in the next decade according to EP A projections, doubling in Los Angeles and quadrupling in Chicago. Carbon dioxide and criteria pollutant emissions from biomass burning will add to total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions and therefore contribute to the heat waves. In the decade from 1992-2001, deaths from heat waves exceeded the total from hurricanes, tornados, and floods combined. The 1995 Chicago heat wave resulted in more than 600 heat related deaths over 5 days (Annals of Internal Medicine, Vol. 129 Issue 4). The California heat wave in 2005 was relatively mild, but resulted in health care costs exceeding $132,000,000 (pacific Ecoinformatics, August 26,2008). 6 <. " In addition, wildfires have become such a prevalent and severe problem that the American Academy of Pediatrics has separate pamphlets dealing with the acute and cbronic effects on children. 4. The Subcommittee on Children's Health should take measures to limit public subsidies for biomass burning under CEJAPA in order to protect children's health. Rather than giving biomass combustion preferentialtteatment under CEJAP A, especially in relation to coat, legislation to curtail biomass combustion would have a significant impact on the climate as well as reduce the incidence of air pollution related health care costs in children and the population at large. We urge the Subcommittee on Children's Health to carefully consider amendments to CEJAP A to close the biomass loophole for the sake of our children's health and that of the planet. This does not require major re- drafting of the bill. Instead, language that simply closes the "biomass loophole" by mllking the power producers accountable for producing "clean" energy in order to obtain renewable energy credits will protect our children's health from the lifelong negative impacts of the toxic air emissions from biomass burning. The enclosed amendment provides language that would effectively accomplish this end. Closing the biomass loophole by counting CO2 emissions from biomass combustion, and JIlllking the producers accountable for those emissions, will also help ensure that CEJAP A does not make climllte change worse and is substantiated by the science. We look forward to discussing . our proposal with you. Thank you for the consideration. Very truly yours, William Sammons, MD. Board Certified Pediatrician Subspecialty Certified in Behavioral and Developmental Pediatrics 7 -{' J Cosigners: William Blackey, MD. Elldn, N.C. Board Certified in Family Medicine Ronald Saff, MD. T$lll$lha~see, FL. Board Certified in Internal Medicine and Allergy-Immunology Cancer Action Network New York, Donald L. Hassig, Director Massachusetts Breast Cancer Coalition Floridians Against Incinerators in Disguise HOPE [Help Our Polluted Environment] in Taylor County, Florida Environmental Alliance of North Florida Florida League of Conservation Voters Energy Justice Network Enclosures: Hampden County Medical Society letter American Lung Association Massachusetts letter Florida Medical Association Resolution Plant emissions comparison data EIA projections of biomass electrical generation capacity Legislation Proposal-Amendment to close biomass loophole Cc: Senator Evan Bayh Senator Sherrod Brown Senator Maria Cantwell Senator Thomas Carper Senator Robert Casey Senator Kent Conrad 8 ~. ,~ You raise a good point. In general, if you look at the most recent guidance under the LGO protocol, it says that emissions associated with combustion of biomass should be repor:ted as 'information items' - meaning that they should be mentioned in a city or town's inventory report, but they are not required to be included in the City's official roll-up or sum of emissions. By calling these emissions 'information items' we are recognizing that actual emissions are being produced, but since wood is categorized as a 'renewable fuel', or a fuel that is able to sequester carbon, the combustion of wood is treated as carbon neutral, because the same carbon that was sequestered by the wood is now being emitted back. The oldest version of CACP may not have had the ability to record 'information items' - I think this was a new concept that was developed when the LGO protocol came out. If your town would like to upgrade to the newer version of the software. I can walk you through that. Guidance is also available on this link: http://www.icleiusa.org/tools/cacp-2009 Or, if you would like to calculate the emissions associated with wood outside of the software, on Page 204 of the.LGO protocol, Table G-2 has the C02 emission factors for wood (first row). Also, Table G-3 has the N20 and CH4 emission factors for Solid Biomass Fuels. Please let me know if you would like to go over any of this on the phone (including whether you would like to upgrade to the newer version of CACP - it is free for existing members). . Sincerely, Amruta Senator Byron Dorgan Senator Richard Durbin Senator John Keny Senator Herbert Kohl Senator Frank Lautenberg Senator Patrick Leahy Senator Blanch Lincoln Senator Claire McCaskill Senator Jeff Merkley Senator Barbara Mikulsky Senator Mark Pryor Senator Jay Rockefeller Senator Jeanne Shaheen Senator Arlen Specter Senator Deborah Stabenow Senator Tom Udall Senator Mark Udall Senator James Webb Senator Sheldon Whitehouse , 9 '. , , William Blackley, MD says: February 18, 2011 at 11:47 pm Hi, I know this looks like a personal discussion, and I don't even live in Florida, but I want to throw in my two cents based the science I've read and common sense. Ifbiomass burning was clean there would be no need for a smokestack to carry away the toxins (to your neighbors) and no need for an air permit that allows a maximum amount of toxins to be emitted. That pretty self-evident. First: Someone claims (as an assumption) that burning biomass is "clean renewable electricity. " and that "Biomass is the cleanest source, nearly zero, CO2 emissions offuel available in this region of the US." There is no humanly way possible that burning biomass, tree, fossil or slash, can be clean. Emissions, like those from burning biomass, (and for that matter coal) have been proven to increase health risks. Even small amounts of these toxins would increase risk. Why add them when it is uunecessary? When there is a weather inversion all the toxins would hang in a plume over your ball fields, schools and homes. Your voting citizens and children would pay the price in subsequent increased risks of asthma, cancer, chronic bronchitis, stroke, heart failure, diabetes and multiply other diseases that have been proven by a huge body of medical evidence to cause or increase medical risks. Saying 'clean' and 'biomass burning' in the same sentence is an oxymoron. Same with coal. The really clean sources of energy are solar, wind, water and hydrogen. Burning is not a form of clean energy. We would be well served to put our money on these clean forms of energy. Burning is also not renewable. There is not enough downed wood created annually to feed all the proposed plants. Duke Power is already requesting to burn whole trees. When it is apparent that there isn't enough wood on fue ground the plant would be clamoring for more to burn. These plants can say what they want but utility commissions can expand the list of what is legal to burn. Is it possible that lobbyists and legislators would have anything to do with those actions? ., , Second: Someone said, "Only fossil carbon can increase the overall atmospheric concentration of C02." That's a convenient and misleading myth spun by companies that would burn biomass. They all have their own set of 'experts' who have their own special interests in testifying and they typically use the 8th grade diagram of carbon dioxide from burning being taken up by trees and oxygen being released. That's true but stretch the time frame out over a thousand years. Carbon dioxide (C02) released upon burning biomass is indistingnishable from carbon dioxide released from burning coal. Like all C02 released, 50% of that C02 would be taken up in 20 years, 30% in 200 years and the remaining 20% in 500 to 1,000 years. Humans don't have that kind of time. Slash and logs left on the ground may take decades to a century to decay. Note that downed wood fixes nitrogen, emits very little methane if decaying aerobically, adds to soil nutrient levels, helps prevent run off, add cover for wildlife and acts a host for new growth. The study that showed methane release was talking about land filled and mulched wood waste. That's not what opponents of burning biomass have in mind. Third: Scrubbers and bagbouse filters would help remove some of the toxic air pollution from burning biomass and coal. However, there are truly clean sources of energy and Florida has a lot of sun, so why not promote those clean energy- producing systems. Why build something that will release more toxins in your environment? Multiple biomass plants have been fined for excess emissions even with these scrubbers and bagbouse filters in place. These scrubbers and filters are based on zero human error, perfect maintenance, perfect scheduling, no mechanical malfunction, no holes developing in the fabric, etc. Not only that they are not even designed to capture some of the smallest and most dangerous nanoparticles. What happens when the emission are exceeded? They are fined . . . and keep on emitting toxins. . . and are rarely, if ever, shut down. Once they are built and operating they develop their own set oflobbyists and connections with legislators who fight to keep them operating. Fourth: Can we trust our governments to protect us? Experts (and the government agencies) allowed lead in gasoline and paint, DDT to be sprayed all over the United States, Agent Orange (with dioxins) in Vietnam, formaldehyde in <(, . y houses, asbestos in gloves and multiple pesticides that are toxic to children. They allowed dry clean solvent toxins, PCB in transformers, medical waste facilities to bum mercury fillil1g'l, highly toxic plastics in our drinking containers and cooking wear that causes epigenetic i1all)age. All these products were good for some businesses but bad for human!': . . . just like burning wood would be. FIfth: Most of the people opposing biomass burning are doing so for health and enVironmental reasons. Why does the forestry industIy support burning .. biomass? How about the Southern Alliance for Clean Energy? I believe they support the forestry and biomass burning industIy. Someone is money off these plants while the main stakeholders, the citizens, make no money and take all the risks. These plants make waste, dump it in the air and we breath it Our lunge; filter the air whether we like it or not A smoke stack is just like a giant cigarette and none of the citizens will be able to leave the room. Could you please publish your letters of endorsement from the Sierra Club and the Union of Concerned Scientists in this newspaper. Please specifically ask if they endorse your statement that "Biomass is the cleanest source, nearly zero, CO2 emissions" I have to ask why any citizen would promote increased toxic air emission? Thanks, William Blackley, MD @ < . Testimony Before the Snbcommittee on National Parks, Forests, and Pnblic Lands of the Committee of Natnral Resources for an oversight hearing on "The Role of Federal Lands in Combating Climate Change", March 3, 2009. Mark E. Ha111lon, PhD, Richardson Endowed Chair and Professor in Forest Science, Department of Forest Ecosystems and Society, Oregon State University. Introdnction I am here to represent myself and offer my expertise to the subcommittee. I am a professional scientist, having worked in the area of forest carbon for nearly three decades. During that time I have conducted numerous studies on many aspects of this problem, have published extensively, and provided instruction to numerous students, forest managers, and the general public. Recently there has been an increasing interest in using forests as a way to remove carbon from the atmosphere and store it over the long-te111l as part of a greenhouse gas mitigation strategy. US forests currently remove an equivalent of 12% of this nation's carbon dioxide emissions; there is excellent potential to increase and maintain this carbon "offset" as part of a bridging strategy. The following testimony reviews, in terms as simple as possible, how the forest system stores carbon, the issues that need to be addressed when assessing any proposed action, and some common misconceptions that need to be avoided. I conclude by reviewing and assessing some of the more common proposals as well as my general concerns about the forest system as a place to store carbon. My key points: I) Forests are leaky carbon buckets, 2) Forests can play an important, but limited roles in sequestering carbon, 3) All carbon pools need to be examined when thinking through the merits of carbon policy, 4) To increase the sequestration of forest carbon, we need to either increase carbon inputs, decrease carbon outputs, or put forest carbon somewhere else, 5) Forests are best seen as a bridging strategy in carbon mitigation, 6) Seemingly "good" forest carbon ideas when examined at the stand level at a point in time dissipate when looked at the forest level over time, and 7) With accelerating climate change, forests may shift from being part of the carbon solution to being part of the carbon problem. The Basic System: Forests as Leaky Carbon Buckets Carbon is stored in multiple ways in the forest system: in the forest itself and the carbon harvested from the forest. Living plants store carbon above- and belowground. The longer lived the plants or their parts, the more that they store. This is why forests contain more live carbon than grasslands: their parts have longer lives. When plants or their parts die they start to decompose, but some carbon can be stored as dead biomass. The slower the decomposition rate, the more that will be stored. This is why dead wood in a forest can be an important carbon store. Decomposition of dead plants eventually leads to the fortnation of soil carbon, which due to its relatively slow decomposition rate can accumulate to high levels. So despite a low live carbon store, grassland can store a great deal of carbon in the soil because it produces many dead roots that end up as soil. Harvest of wood and bark can also store carbon, but as with other parts of the forest system, it is subject to carbon losses, specifically doring manufacturing, use, and disposal. , > In the case of biomass energy, the harvested carbon is theoretically stored as unused fossil fuel carbon. Given the longevity of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and the fact that this fossil fuel carbon may be eventually burned, "carbon" biomass energy must delay the use of fossil fuels for many decades to be an effective storage mechanism. Photosynthesis, respiration, and combustion are the major processes that control how much carbon enters and leaves the forest system. These proeesses interact to control the carbon store of forest systems. Forests are biological systems and as such are "leaky" with regards to carbon. That is. there is one way in which carbon comes in (photosynthesis) but many ways it goes out (respiration of plants, decomposers, and consumers, combustion, leaching, and erosion). A key concept to understand is that leaky systems can store carbon, but the amount they store is related to the amount that is coming in versus the proportion that is leaking out. By analogy a bucket with leaks can store water, bot to do so it needs a constant input of water . However, the larger the leaks the less water that is stored regardless of the amount of flow into the bucket. The same can be said of a bank account; one can spend money and still accumulate wealth as long as money is put into the account. Returning to the forest system, photosynthesis is constantly causing carbon to flow into the bucket or account. Inereasing the input of carbon by increasing the rate of photosynthesis will increase the average forest carbon store. Decreasing the respiration rate of plants or decomposers or the losses from combustion will also increase the average forest carbon store. However, regardless of cause these net increases will eventually slow and then cease as the forest system comes to a new balance. Disturbance, be it natural or human-induced, influences the balance of carbon several ways. Some disturbances, such as fire, directly release carbon to the atmosphere. All disturbances convert living plant biomass into dead biomass, subjecting the forest system to additional respiration losses (essentially more leaks). Disturbance temporarily reduces photosynthesis; which means that the average carbon input to the system is decreased by disturbances because it takes some time to restore the photosynthetic capacity of forests. The effect of disturbance depends on the frequency and the severity (i.e., amount of carbon removed) of the disturbance. The more frequent disturbances appear in furest systems, the more that is removed, and hence less carbon is stured on average. Decreasing the interval between disturbances effectively increases the number of leaks in the bucket. The same effect is true for disturbance severity; the more severe the disturbance is in directly removing carbon, the less stored on average. Increasing disturbance severity effectively increases the size of the leaks in the bucket. The Effects ofNatnral Disturbances versus Harvest Whether trees killed by fire or wiudstonn are salvaged makes relatively little difference in carbon storage. Whenever there is a natural disturbance it is often suggested that harvesting dead trees will release less carbon than letting them decompose naturally. This is based on the assumption that natural processes will rapidly release carbon and timber harvesting will not. This assumption is not supported by the likely rates of carbon release from these two processes. Setting aside the fact that harvest and transport of wood currently requires carbon-based energy, there is an inevitable release of carbon during the manufacturing and use offorest products. Depending upon the type of wood product produced, the amount of carbon released during manufacturing is equal to 25-50"10 of the harvested amount. In many cases harvested forests are , , burned for site preparation, a process that removes approximately 5-10% of the forest's carbon. Combined with manufacturing losses, this means that timber harvest reduces total forest carbon stores by 10-25%. When products are in use, their life-span has a wide range from less than several decades to centuries. This yields a rate ofloss of between I and 10% per year. Wlnle surprising, these values are not that different for natural disturbances. Consider the amount of loss during a fire, the natural disturbance that removes the most carbon. A common assumption is that much of the wood burns in a fire, although if that were true there would be no debates about salvaging wood. Analysis after fire indicate that, while small material can be totally consumed, it is rare that harvest sized wood is consumed. Losses from roots and the soil are minimal. Taking all the carbon stores of a forest into consideration, the range of carbon losses from fire consumption is probably between 5 and 15%, generally lower than range for timber harvest and products manufacturing. After the fire, the newly killed trees decompose. For the US, the range of wood decomposition rates for the size of material harvested is between I and 10% per year. That is very similar to that of forest products! Although all these numbers are approximate, they do indicate that salvaging fire-killed trees is not substantially better for carbon storage than simply allowing the trees to decompose, and in certain situations might be considerably less effective in storing carbon. Things to Consider: Framing the Analysis of Carbon and Forests There are a number of general things that should be examined whenever an action regarding carbon and forests is considered. Unfortunately this has not always been the case. I. All the relevant carbon stores need to be examined. Many projects are considered from the point of view of just live carbon. This may be quite natural to do as we have the most data and understanding of live trees. However, it must be realized that other important carbon stores in forests do not behave the same as live trees. Dead trees, for example, often reach their highest store after disturbance, whereas live trees reach their lowest store at that point By only considering live plants it is highly likely that the rate of forest carbon uptake is overestimated, in some cases by substantial amounts. A related issue is that the changes in all the carbon pools need to be considered for a total accounting. For example, harvesting wood does increase stores in the wood products poo~ but it also decreases stores in the live and dead wood pool in the forest 2. The starting conditions are key and yet are often ignored. The starting and end points need to be specified. Often a proposed action gives the end point, but not the starting point This would be similar to describing a trip by only giving the destination. One will have no idea of the direction or the distance to be traveled. For example, if one is plamling on establishing a short- rotation forest plantation on agricultural land, then more carbon will be stored. Establishing the same type of plantation by converting an old-growth forest will result in a net loss of carbon to the atmosphere. 3. Our actions to increase carbon stores can take decades to have a positive effect. Not every action in forests leads to an "instantaneous" response. It takes time to implement policy actions because the area involved is quite large. This means that the effect of any proposed policy needs to consider the long-term: many decades to centuries. Once treated forests take many years to , > adjust to any action that is imposed. For example, it takes years 10 decades for a planted forest to establish full photosynthetic capacity. It also takes years to decades for the dead material created by a disturbance caused by nature or hmnans to decompose away. TIlls means that temporal lags can be expected in any projected gains. Thus, it may be eventually possible to gain carbon by converting an older forest to a younger biomass energy plantation, but it may take many decades or even centuries for this to occur. This is time we do not have. 4. Forests are potentially renewable, but this is not a fixed property of forests. It is generally assumed that forest related carbon in the form of wood and biofuels are renewable. There is logic to this in that trees can be harvested and can regrow. Resources that can regrow are potentially renewable, but a resource is not renewable automatically because it is grows or is a tree. To determine if a resource is renewable we need to compare the regeneration and removal rate. We also need to understand that removal of trees can and does affect carbon pools other than trees and these can decline when trees are harvested. Given we are considering the entire forest carbon system, this mean that harvesting a renewable resource such as trees leads to an non-renewable loss elsewhere in the carbon system. 5. Forests are systems that have feedbacks which can strongly influence carbon effects of actions. For example, increasing the growth rate of trees can lead to higher carbon stores in forests, but a larger live tree store also means that more plant material will die during the course of forest growth or harvest. More dead plant material means more losses via decomposition or combustion if there is a fire or harvest. This means that the gains from increases in forest growth feedbacks to result in decreased net carbon increases in time. As another example, it has been stated that forest fire frequency and severity will increase in the future. That may be the case, but it also should be noted that it is generally difficult tu increase the severity and frequency of fires for any length of time, in part because more frequent fires eventually lower the fuel level, and fuel level is related to fire severity. 6. Estimating carbon effects of policies need to look at whole forests over time, not single stands at a puint in time. The way a forest system behaves depends on how large an area that is considered and how long a time period it is considered. Perhaps no other issue, termed scale by ecologists, has lead to so much confusion and frankly wrong-headed notions in terms of forest carbon management. It is perfectly true that young forests of a certain age do remove more carbon in a course of a year than an older forest. This would be useful information if forests never changed their ages. The high rate of uptake of some young forest occurs because even younger forests have lost carbon. Since one can not have a young forest without have an even younger forest, comparing the just one year in the life's forest is completely misleading. Recall that when forests are disturbed by nature or humans the forest initially loses carbon. Over a long time period forests gain carbon and eventually lose some of it when disturbed again. If the average carbon stores of a young foresl is compared 10 that of an older forest, then one finds that the older forest stores a good deal more carbon. Therefore one is unlikely to gain carbon from the forest site if one converts from an older to a younger forest system. When one considers a small plot ofIand, the carbon balance seems to moving from losing to gaining to losing carbon over time. However, when one considers many plots of land that are going through these cycles at different times, then one sees a relatively steady store of carboo. This is analogous to a bank in which one person puts in funds and another removes them. As long as there is not a run on the bank, the amount of funds is relatively constant (at least that is the hope). This is quite relevant in terms of carbon policy, because small land owners will see boom and bust cycles in their carbon stores and this may make buying their carbon credits very unappealing. If many smaIl land owners aggregate their carbon projects, then it is possible for the buyer to see a steady store or supply of carbon. Using Forests to Sequester Carbon from the Atmosphere: increase carbou inputs, decease carbon outputs, or put forest carbon somewbere else US forests are currently removing carbon from the atmosphere and are likely to remain doing this for some time, perhaps decades. Eventually, as in all leaky systems, the rate of carbon removal is likely to slow and eventually cease. At this point the forest will be in rough balance with the amount coming in about equal to the amount going out This "saturation" behavior is one reason forests are considered a bridging strategy and not a lasting solution to the problem of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. To continue and enhance the removal of carbon by forests, it will be neeessary to take direct actions. Put simply, to remove more carbon from the atmosphere with forests it will be necessary to increase the average amount of carbon that forests store or increase the efficiency or manufacture of wood products and the length of their storage in use. As stated above, the average carbon store as well as the carbon balance of any forest is controlled by the amount input via photosynthesis versus the amount lost via respiration (e.g., plants and other organistns such as decomposers) and the amount lost via combustion. Both the average carbon store and the carbon balance vary over time, in part, because the factors controlling photosynthesis, respiration, and combustion vary over time. Therefore it is useful to distinguish between short- term and relatively minor variations in forest carbon caused by yearly variations in climate versus those cansed by changes in policy or long-term changes in climate. It is the latter two that will change the balance and store of carbon in the long-term. Before presenting the range of possible management options it is worth reminding ourselves tbat carbon is not the only reason we manage forests. Forests provide humans clean water, habitat for many animals, plants, and other organistns, harvested goods of all sorts, recreation, and many intangible benefits. Not all these objectives will be compatible with maximizing carbon stores in forests. Moreover, there are certain management actions such as thinning certain forest types (e.g., PonderOsa pine) that may be necessary to maintain these forests despite the fact that carbon stores will be decreased. We can not be so single minded about carbon that we create a host of other problems. There are many proposed steps and multiple viable strategies and that can be taken with regard to increasing forest carbon. Admittedly this can be confusing for those looking for a "one-size fits all" approach. On the other hand it does offer flexibility that will allow one to tailor approaches with specific situations on the ground. Essentially one can increase carbon stores of by increasing the input to the forest, decreasing the ontput from the forest, putting the earbon from the forest somewhere else, or some combination of these. The following reviews specific approaches that have been proposed recently: . , 1. Slowing that rate.of deforestation (i.e., the permanent removal of forests) will definitely slow the release of carbon to the atmosphere. Depending upon the period examined, deforestation is estimated to have added 20-30% of the increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere since the dawn of the industrial revolution. While deforestation for agricultural purposes is generally low in the US, considerable forest land is being converted to housing and industrial use, which can have the same effect as deforestation, particularly if clearing is extensive. 2. Planting new forests is generally a good practice to increase carbon stores, particularly on lands that once held forest many years ago. Much of our nation's current forest-related carbon removal from the atmosphere is associated with the reestabIishment of forests in the eastern US after agricultural abandonment. The best opportunities are on marginal agricultural lands as the impact on food production is reduced. Planting forests on degraded agricultural land can increase the store of carbon both above- and belowground (i.e., soils). Forests can also be reestablished on lands with low stocking of trees after regeneration fuilures. Planting trees on what have been traditionally grassland systems can lead to reductions in soil carbon stores, in part because trees do not produce as many dead roots as grasses. Care needs to be taken in assuring that these losses belowground do not exceed those gained aboveground 3. Biomass energy has the potential to offset fossil foel use and hence reduce carbon release to the atmosphere under certain conditinns. .However, there are several fuctors that must be considered before this potential is realized. Biomass energy is not necessarily renewable; it is only renewable when the resource is allowed to fully regenerate. Forests, by their very long-term nature, take years to regenerate their biomass and one can not assume that all forest practices lead to a renewable resource. When using biomass energy, it must be borne in mind that one is substituting energy and not carbon. Because biomass contains less energy per unit carbon than fossil fuels, some fossil fuels are required to produce the same amount of energy, and so removal of one unit of carbon from the forest results in less than one unit of fossil carbon from being unused or stored. It therefore may take several cycles for carbon benefits to accumulate to the point that they offset losses in the forest. This is why the carbon benefits of biomass energy can be delayed if natural forests storing a more carbon are converted to plantations that store less carbon. This suggests that if biomass energy is to be part of a forest strategy, it is best employed with afforestation efforts or in forests that are already young. Although it is usually assumed that fossil fuel use is decreased when biomass energy is used, this is not necessarily true. Given the lifespan of carbon in the atmosphere, the delay in fossil fuel use has to be substantial to be effective. Simply delaying the use a few years does little to reduce the rate of overall carbon emissions. The argument that the increase in fossil fuel related carbon would have been worse without biomass fuels would have merit if the issue was to just slow the increase in these releases. However, the issue that confronts us is how to decrease the current release rate of fossil fuel carbon. 4. Converting older forests to younger forests rarely stores more carbon. Such action increases the leakiness of the forest bucket (recall major losses discussed above in site preparation, manufucturing losses, and the increased :frequency of disturbance). An exception is when a frequent natural disturbance is replaced by a less frequent harvest (which by the way rarely happens). Another is when an inherently very slowly growmg natural forest is replaced by , a much faster growing plantation. That too is fairly rare. Two of the best ways to store more carbon in forests is to extend the interval between harvests or take less per harvest Basically both actioDS make the forest bucket less leaky. Depending on the length of the rotation or the amount of harvest, one can either enhance or reduce the store in forest products. While longer rotations can lower the average amount that is harvested, the material that is harvested tends to be more suitable for long-term use and hence may store more as wood products. 5. It is possible to increase forest system carbon stores by increasing the growth rate of trees. Depending on the forest, this can be achieved by using superior genetic stock, planting faster growing species, fertilization, irrigation, or speeding the rate of tree regeneration. In most cases the increases in tree growth do not offset the losses from converting older natural forests, and in all cases it may take several harvest intervals before gains are fully realized in wood products stores. Usually the goal of increasing the growth rate of trees is to shorten the interval between harvests. If this practice is followed, then the gains of carbon ill the forest itself will be minimaL On the other hand it may result in increased wood products stores, but that depends on the types of products produced. It should also be noted that thinning of forests does not increase the rate carbon is added to forests. It does allow the remaining trees to grow faster and become larger faster, but one must remember that it does this for fewer trees. The claim that thinning increases forest production is really based on the amount harvested, not the amount of carbon entering the forest: these are two completely different things. 6. Redncing fuels in forests have few benefits from a carbon storage standpoint. Recently it has been proposed that reducing fuels in forests would reduce fire.severity to the point that more carbon would be stored in forests than allowing them to burn untreated. This practice can have benefits for ecosystem restoration in some forest types (for example, Ponderosa pine), but there appear to be few benefits from a carbon storage perspective. There are many reasons for this result First, to reduce fuels one needs to reduce carbon stores, so there would have to be major changes in fire severity and size to offSet these losses. Second, the difference in the effects of severity on carbon stores is less dramatic than generally imagined. As indicated above, a very light fire might results in forest losses on the order of 5% of total carbon in a forest, whereas for an extremely severe fire these losses might be on the order of 15%. Third, one can not anticipate where fires will occur, so a large proportion of the forest area needs to be treated. In contrast, a small proportion of the forest area may burn in the next few decades, which results in more losses from the treatment than the fires (besr in mind the total effect depends on both the area involved and the average loss per area). The most likely case where removal of fuels will result in a long-term carbon benefit would be if, without fuel treatment, the firt; severity increases to the point that tree regeneration is greatly delayed. However, this regeneration delay has to be substantial to have much of an effect 7. Forest products do store carbon; whether they actoaUy increase the forest system carbon stores is a more complicated issue. Given thar the basic material of forest products, wood, is approximately 50% carbon, harvesting wood and placing it into forest products can definitely store carbon. However, this gain is at the expense of storing carbon in the forest, and it is completely possible there will be no net gain in the total forest system carbon stores. Harvest of wood removes carbon from the forest which means the parts of the forest that depended on that carbon will decrease in stores. Manufucturing of wood into products results in a loss of carbon as It'" , does the use and disposal of wood products. Overall, the effect of harvesting carbon is to make the overall furest system leakier. Ifwood products are to be used to store carbon, then the efficiency of converting wood into long-lived products needs to be increased, and the life-span of these products needs to he lengthened considerably (see above). There have been proposals to harvest wood from forests and store it in a location where it can not decompose by burial on land or sinking it into oceans or lakes. I suppose this would he the "ultimate" wood product in terms of carbon storage. Assuring that there is no decomposition may prove challenging: wood is decomposed quite quickly in oceans, for example, organisms such as shipworms readily eat wood as any naval historian can attest Wood is not the most concentrated form of carbon and the sheer volume to he stored would likely dwarf those of current landfills and interfere with other land-uses. Also it may not prove particularly popular. Finally, the harvest of wood causes other parts of the forest to temporally lose carbon which would introduce time lags into the gains offered by this scheme. 8. Substitution of wood for more energy intensive materinls has the potential to decrease fossil fuel carbon releases, but how mueh of this potential will be realized is difficult to quantify. It has been proposed that substitution of wood for more energy intensive materials will reduce the rate that fossil fuel carbon is released into the atmosphere. While wood is generally less energy intensive than many alternative materials, the difference between materials has been decreasing and not all the energy for these is supplied via fossil fuels. Currently, steel and concrete utilize three times the energy of wood. However, most buildings are mixtures of wood and other materials, so the energy savings of a building primarily constructed of wood is 30% relative to those primarily made of other materials. As noted above, harvest results in the release of carbon from the forest and while not fossil fuel-related, these losses need to be deducted from any gains. Many homes aud small commercial building already utilize wood to a high degree. It is therefure not clear how large the substitution effect can become in the US. Finally, although it has been stated by some that the substitution related carbon offset never decreases and accrues each harvest. However, there are reasons to suspect this claim. This would only be true if wooden buildings lasted forever or the supply of buildings increased without limit It is far more likely that buildings will have a finite life-span and need to he replaced, which also means wooden buildings can not increase without limits. Since that is true, then in time harvests are maintaining the store in-buildings and there is no net gain in this form of carbon offset So depending on how much carbon is actually offset, this might be part of a bridging strategy. Concerns Despite the reality that US forests are currently removing carbon from the atmosphere and the great potential for forests to playa role in offsetting greenhouse gas emissions, I do have several concerns. Liqnidation of forest carbon stores can be the potential uninteuded consequeuce of carbou policy. To have forest playa greater role than they do currently, we will have to do something different than business as usual. We must assure that additional carbon is stored due to new actions, a concept usually called "additionality." Despite the need for this concept, it must be acknowledged that it means those with practices that have lead to the lowest carbon stores have the most to benefit from changing their practices. The role of those that have already changed ,. . pmctices or have always managed in a manner to keep carhon stores high has to be recognized and encoumged. Little will be gained if the only way to have carbon store increases counted is to first lower carbon stores. Given the time lags inherent in the forest system, this will be totally counteIproductive. Making sure carbon stores are real: the need for a national acconnting. verification, and monitoring system. We must make sure that any gains in forest carbon stores are real, which means they will have to be monitored and verified. This needs to be done at two levels. The first would be at the level of specific projects. The second would be at a national level, which would involve more than simply adding up all the projects, in part because there will be many forest areas without carbon projects that need to be considered in the national balance sheet The often stated claim that methods do not exist to monitor changes in forest carbon is completely puzzling given that scientists developed these methods decades ago. There are many existing methods and systems that can be modified to achieve the goal of monitoring and verification. They could be substantially improved with further investments, but are sufficient to start the process now. National guidelines or protocols, similar to those developed by California, would greatly aid in assuring monitoring and verification is trustworthy. At least at the project level, where the goal is to support a carbon credits market, these protocols can be flexible as long as there are discounts or deductions for uncertainty about how much additional carbon is being stored. That way the project managers can decide the tradeoff between the gain in carbon by lowering uncertainty versus the cost of a more expensive and comprehensive measurement program. It should also be noted that these estimates of carbon gains need to be conservative, because fuiling to count stomge will do fur less environmental harm than over-counting. Another possible role for the govermnent would be to support detailed studies of proposed projects to fully understand the carbon impacts of the most counnonly proposed projects. While there is a great deal of scientific research in this realm, it has not generally been of an applied a nature. It is unlikely that all forest projects will be able to afford detailed measurements of all the carbon pools and processes. These studies would allow others to more fully anticipate the likely carbon gains and costs of proposed projects and in fact streamline the verification process because certain practices would have been proven to work under certain conditions. Finally, it is important that a system be established to rank the quality of the carbon as opposed to the quantity of carbon. This might be similar to that used fur mting bonds; however, as we have all just learned to work this system needs to be independent of those buying and selling carbon credits. Despite the potential for forests to contribute to the challenge of reducing our nation's greenhouse gas emissions, I do believe that the forest system's limits have to be fully recognized. Even if we could double the current mte that forest's are removing atmospheric carbon, it would amount to approximately 20% of the current fossil fuel release of carbon dioxide. This is quite important, especially since it can be achieved with largely with today's technology. But clearly forests can not be used to solve the entire problem. My greatest concern: with continued warming forests can sWft from being part of the carbon solution to being part of the carbon problem, Forests cannot continue to accumulate carbon forever, so it can be part of a bridging strategy, but we need to use the time it buys us wisely. This brings me to my greatest concern which involves the role forests will play if the climate continues to warm as projected under a business as usual scenario. If we do not act soon . , to reduce the rate the carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are released, we may create a climate that will make forests start a net release carbon to the atmosphere. This could come about in several ways, but many of the effects are likely to be caused indirectly by increased drying of forests. This will mean that wildfires become more extensive and more severe, that insect outhreaks become more extensive and more severe, and that even trees in so-called "undisturbed" forests start to die at faster rates. If this starts to happen then the leaks from the forest carbon system will increase and eventually less will be stored. Not all the carbon will be released all at once as is often implied, it will happen gradually, but ifforests reach this point then they will start to contribute to the problem we are trying to solve. Further, it may also become part of a vicious cycle in which more tree die which releases more carbon which warms the climate even more which causes more drying, which causes more trees to die, etc. Forests are not the only part of the natural world that may act in this manner; thawing currently frozen soils in the north could cause yet another vicious carbon release cycle to begin. To assure that this does not happen we need to act on a number of fronts and to decrease carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere as fast as we possibly can. Summary Forests are currently storing considerable carbon in the US and are currently offsetting approximately 10% of the nation's carbon dioxide emissions. Forest systems can be managed in a wide range of manners to sustain and perhaps even increase their ability to remove carbon from the atmosphere. Some of the actions being proposed will definitely not store more carbon in forests, but there are many that will. To assore that forest projects in fact remove atmospheric carbon, it is essential that the actions conform to rigorous scientific principles, that incrcases of stores be monitored and verified. Forest systems can be a good share of the nation's solution to decreasing the accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, but they can not be used alone. It is highly likely tllllt unless other steps are taken that the positive role that forest could play will become diminished and even switch to a negative one. We must also make sure that actions taken to increase the role of forest as carbon stores does not create other problems in teons of what we expect forests to do for us. Permanent Address: bttp:/1www.scleufIO'....I~m1art1"'" .......?id=wood.burnlng-power-plants- earbon-neutnIJ..hJgh-e Wood.BumiIIg Power J>lants-.Carbou-NeutraI or HIgh Carbon Rm_~1 Environmental groups are pressing the EPA to backtrack on its plans to exempt biomass from climale regulations, arguing that such a step would spark an uptick in unregulsted carbon emissions By Dilla Fine Maron and C1imateWire rWednesday, April 6, 2011111 Image: CuJifornia Energy Ccmmissiol) ADVERTISEMENT Environmental groups yesterday pI ed U.s, ErA to backtrack on its plans to exempt biomass from climate regulations for the next three years, arguing that such a step would prompt more fuel switching to biomass and spar.k an uptick in unregulated carbon emissions. The Natural Resources DefenseCouncil and Southern Environmental Law Center (SELC) opposed a proposed rule from ErA thatwou1d allow facilities burnlngwoodywaste, landfills and ethanol fio"um- to be exempt from carbon regulations for the IIeld: three years. The proposal would .provide incentives to fuel switch. in order to avoid cIiIIlate regulations, said Navis Bermude:t, deputy legislative director for SELC. The exemption would leave these emitters unregulated, and could result in higher greenhonse gas emissions than using coaJ, she said at a public hearing on the rule, echoing the sentiments of several other environmental organizations that spoke. At the heart of the matter is a controversy over carbon accounting and the length of time required to replenish carbon reservoirs. _1, 6... f' ., Past federal regulations have accepted the premise that facilities fueled by woody waste are "carbon-neutral" - merely speeding up the carbon cycle that would naturalIy occur as plants decompose. But a study commissioned by Massachusetts last year and conducted by the Manomet Center for Conservation Sciences indicated that bornlng wood for energy generalIy results in greater emissions of greenhouse gases per unit of energy than ualng fossil fuel, based on the efficiency of tapping each resource. The study rested on a number of caveats -including geographic area, how forestlands are managed and if tree refuse or entire trees were utilized, but its results suggested that moving from coal plants to biomass could actoally booat Massachusetts' carbon emissions in the next aeveral dllCQdes (Climate Wire, July 12, 2010). That finding has been a touchstone for environmentalists concerned that the carbon footprint of such plants is not being addressed. EP A contends that providing a three-year deferral on the issue will allow it to perform scientific analysis considering to what extent - if at all - these emitters should be included in regulations. Some in industIy worry about uncertainty The agency will examine the science around biogenic carbon dioxide emissions and develop a rulemaklng on how these emissions should be accounted for in future permitting requirements, it said in the proposed rule. The agency is accepting comments on the issue through May 5. '. ~ Biomass advocates including the National Alliance of Forest Owners (NAFO) and the Biomass Power AssocIation yesterday baRed EPA's decision to study the matter and reiterated that cllmate regulations that kicked into effect in Jan11llIY and affect large statiomny sources should not apply to them. Support for biomass as a renewable enezgy source would be undermined by considering it a carbon polluter, said Dave Tenny, president ofNAFO. Tenny, whose group originally asked EP A for the exemption. argued that it would be impossible to measure how woody waste would be used if it were not used in biomass facilities; thus any calculations could not fully settle questions of carbon accounting. Meanwhile, Bob Cleaves, president and CEO of the Biomass Power AssocIation, urged the agency to move faster than the proposed 1:hrre-year timeline on its final decision to exclnde biomass - in orderto provide JI1arket certainty forpotential biomass investors, he said. "DeJays willcause regulatory uncertainty and economic harm in areas of the nation that continue to suffer from high unemployment and anemic economic growth,. he said in prepared remarlm. The hearlngcomes on the heels of an announcement last week from Domioion Vhginla Power that it expects to CQnvert three of its VJrglnia coal-fired plants to run on biomass. Domioion would have ri10ved forward with its fuel-switcbingplans regardless of whether EPA granted the 1:hrre-year delay request, Dominion spokesman Jim Norvelle said in an emafi. The company expects its biomass plants wDl be online by 2013 if its plans are approved, and said the facilities would help the company meet VJrglnia's voluntary renewable portfolio standard. r Biomass advocates including the National.t\Dumce of Forest Owners (NAFO) and the Biomass Power Association yesterday balled EPA's decision to study the matter and reiterated that climate regulations that kicked into effect in Jan11lll'Yand affect large stati011lll'Y sources should not apply to them. Support for biomass as a renewable enerp.y source would be nn(lP.1'I1tined by considering it a carbon ponuter, said Dave Tenny, president ofNAFO. Tenny, whose group originally asked EPA for the exemption, argued that it would be inipossib1e to measure how woody waste wonld be used ifit were not used in biomass facilities; thus any ""l""IAtions could not folly settle questions of carbon accountiDg. Meanwhile. Bob Cleaves, president and CEO of the Biomass Power Association, urged the agency to move faster than the proposed three-year time1ine on its final decision to exclude biomass - in order to provide market certainty for potential biomass investOl'll, he said. "Delays will cause regulatory uncertainty and economic harm in areas of the nation that continue to soffer from high unemployment and anemic economic growth. n he said in prepared remarks. The healing comes on the heels of an announcement last week from Dominion Virginia Power that it expects to convert three of its Virginia coal-fired plants to run on biomass. Dominion would have moved forward with its fue1-switching plans regardless of whether EPA granted the three-year delay request. Dominion spo1cMTnAn Jini NorveI1e said in an email. The company expects its biomass plants will be ouline by 2013 if its plans are approved, and said the facilities would help the company meet Virginia's voluntsry renewable portfolio standard. . T AMERICAN LUNG . ASSOCIATION. FIghting for Air PUBLIC POLICY POSITION POSITION TITLE: DATE APPROVED: Energy June 11, 2011 Polhlyi'rineipIeon Energy The use of energy is eSsential to the growth and filnctioning of the U.S. economy and for the~l;fofJlfe~joyedin the United SfIItes. However, certain l!tIll.\'gy practices, fuel SOUl'CeSand tet:hnologiesplace II heavy toll on human hea1th and the environment, impilCtingthe lives ofmilJions of - penple, including those who are most vulnerable to hlmn. 'rheAmeriea1l. Lung Association believes that protel:tion ofIung health and II sollndU.S. energypolicy ate compatible goals that require an emphasis on energy COIllIC1'Vlltin energy efficiency, and the use of cleaner energy resources, imlluding II traIlsitionfromcoa1 and oil to cleaner alternatives. Our overarching principles ea11 for the implementation of effective air ql.la1ity progouns and standards, transitioning to II clean energy future, with II commitment to promote environmental iustice. PrOll101:ing EffectiVe Air Quality Programs and Standant$ To ensure the protection of human health, the American Lung Association supportS the rigorous enforcement of air pollution regulatious, and the strengthening of air quality standards and abatement requirements. The American Lung Association be.1ieves that all energy production facilities should use state-of-the-art pollution control technologies to protect public hea1thand the environment A1I facilities shouldl'l;leet the same rigorous standards of environmental p.:afulmanee, including both new and .e){isting fuctlities. Transitioning to II Clean Energy FutUre The American Lung Association supports state and federal policies that wi1I drive the deployment of the cleanest and most fud-efficient energy resonrces and technologies. Such policies should promote the use ofnon-comhn.stion renewable energy, low carbon :fuels (measured on II Iifecycle basis), eJq)IUlded trsm....illllion and smart grid technologies, alternative forms of transportation, and energy storage. These progTlllllS and policies may include financial incentives, fundi"g for research and development, and other meaSllre$ to accelerate the deployment of alternative energy technologies. The American Lung Association recognizes that tradeoffs may be inherent in the choice of alternative energy technologies and the need fur clean, reliable, and cost-effective 1 . , energy supplies. The American Lung Association supports steps to m;niTn;7.e the potential harm to human health inherent in these tradeoffs. Foeusing on Environmental Justiee The American Lung Association supports the protection of all people from the harm of air pollution, especially those who suffer disproportionate exposure from local sources of emissions. The American Lung Association recognizes that energy and transportation sources of air pollution are often located near where many people, especially communities of color or lower income,live and work. The American Lung Association recognizes that, for many reasons, people in those communities also face a greater burden of lung disease, making them even more vulnerable to these poIlutants. The American Lung Association recognizes that many factors have contributed to the disproportionate levels of exposure in these communities, including missing or weak limits on emissions, poor enforcement of existing regulations, inadequate monitoring of pollutants and !imited scientific research. The American Lung Association supports the formulation, execution and enforcement of health and environmenta11aws and policies to address these factors, clean up contributing sources and reduee such exposures. The American Lung Association supports regular, thorough assessments of the impacts to nearby communities from sources of dangerons air poIluUmts, including highways, industrial boilers, power plants, and other sources of air pollution. The American Lung Association supports the aggressive targeting of these sources for cleanup. The American Lung Association will work to reduce the disproportionate health burdens borne by economically disadvantaged and politically disenfranchised communities. Policy Principle on the Electrlclty Sector The production of electricity in the United States generates a significant share of the nation's air pollution, threatening the health and lives of millions of people, including those who are most vulnerable to harm. Coal-fired power plants, in particular, pose a significant threat to air quality and human health. The American Lung Association supports strict enforcement of power plant air poIlution regulations to ensure continuous compliance and the strengthening of abateJnent requirements to ensure the protection of human health. The American Lung Association supports public policies to mm;mi7.e the human health, partico1arly lung health, impacts associated with the production of electricity from fuel extraction to electricity delivery and disposal of wastes. No com.mm;ty should continue to bear the burden of air pollution levels that harm public health. Energy Efficiency and Customer-Sited Energy Resonrees The American Lung Association supports programs and policies to significantly reduce demand for energy by increasing the efficiency of U.S. homes and businesses, strengthening appliance standards, and reducing the energy consumption of consumer products. The American Lung Association supports programs and policies to encourage consumers and utility companies to expand investment in energy efficiency and energy 2 conservation measures to reduce air pollution emissions, to reduce household energy expenses, and to stimulate new economic opportunities and job creation. The American Lung Association supports programs and policies to encourage energy efficient design and construction of residential, commercial, and industrial buildings while protecting indoor air quality. The American Lung Association supports programs and policies to encourage the development, deployment and integration of clean, non-combustion alternative technologies in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. The American Lung Association particu!llrly supports the promotion of technologies that provide energy from non-combustion sources located onsite, such as rooftop solar and ground source heat pumps. Coal-based Electricity The American Lung Association supports the phase out of conventional coal-fired power plants as the nation transitions to a clean energy future. This includes support for policies that: (I) require the installation and operation of state-of-the-art air pollution control technologies and (2) encourage conversion to cleaner energy resources and/or permanent retirement of coal-fired power plants. The American Lung Association opposes the construction of new conventional coal-fired power plants. The American Lung Association believes that the U.S. should not continue to expand its coal-fired generating capacity because of the extensive scope of health risks associated with the use of coal and the disproportionate impact on local communities. As part of the transition to a clean energy future, the American Lung Association supports providing assistance to retrain coal industry workers and to help impacted communities transition to other economic opportunities. The American Lung Association supports measures to improve the health and safety of coal mine workers, and the communities where they live, including protection from harmfu1 air pollutants. Advanced CoaI-based Electricity Technologies The American Lung Association does not support the construction of new advanced coal- based generating facilities, including carbon capture and sequestration and integrated gasification combined cycle plants. Natural G_based Electricity The American Lung Association supports the increased use of natural gas as a transitional fuel for the production of electricity, as a cleaner alternative to biomass, coal and other fossil fuels. The American Lung Association supports public policies requiring the ins1allation and operation of state-of-the-art pollution control systems at new and existing natural gas-fired power plants. The American Lung Association supports programs and policies to protect air, water, and other environmental resources during the exploration, extraction, production, and transmission of natural gas, including hydraulic fracturing. Nuclear Electricity Before nuclear generating capacity is expanded, the American Lung Association believes that two key thresholds must be met First, the expansion of capacity must be 3 r , economically viable without direct government subsidies. Second, the nnclear :industIy must demonstrate that it can reduce the continuing risks to safety and the environment The American Lung Association supports measures to improve the health and safety of uranium mine workers, and the communities where they live, including protection from barmfuI air pollutants. Non..combustion Renewable Eleetrlclty The American Lung Association supports policies and incentives that will encourage the development and deployment of clean, renewable energy resources that are not combustion-based, including, but not limited to, wind, solar and geothermal. The American Lung Association supports reforms to transmission and dis1nbution policies that will encourage the expansion and delivery of clean, renewable, non-combustion energy resources. The American Lung Association supports additional research and development of advanced technologies that facilitate the expanded use of renewable energy, including improvements to energy storage capabilities. The American Lung Association supports improving the efficiency and output of existing hydroelectric power facilities. Biomass Combustion for Electricity The American Lung Association does not support biomass combustion for electricity production, a category that includes wood, wood products, agriculturaI residues or forest wastes, and potentially highly toxic feedstocks, such as construction and demolition waste. Ifbiomass is combusted, state-of-the-art pollution controls must be required. Electricity from Waste The American Lung Association does not support incineration of municipal solid waste or other waste for electricity production. The American Lung Associa1ion supports programs and policies to rednce the health and environmental impacts associated with refuse disposa1 by: first, redncing the use of materials in production, pal'latging and porchasing; second, reusing materials whenever posslble; and third, recycling or composting as mnch of the rema;nder as pomble. The American Lung Associa1ion urges the use of safe non-combustion aIterna1ives to dispose of a1l rem,,;n;ng waste. If waste materia1s are combusted, state-of-the-art pollution controls must be required. The American Lung Association supports the safe control of emissions from landfills and composting facilities, and recommends that only clean vehicles, equipment, and vessels be used transporting and managing solid waste materia1s. Emissions Trading Emissions trading and averaging can create disproportionate impacts on local communities. The American Lung Association favors a transition to enforceable pollution rednc1ion obligations for a1l facilities. 4 Policy Principle on the Residential, Commereial, and Industrial Sectors The combustion of fossil fuels and biomass in the residential, commercial and industrial sectors in the United StateS generates a significant share of the nation's air pollution, tbreat""i1)g the health and lives of millions of people, including those who are most vuJnerable to harm. The American Lung Association supports public policies to mm;m;.'.e the lmman health, particularly lung health, impacts associated with the production of heat for residential, commercial, and industrial use, including impacts from fuel extraction to the disposal of wastes. The American Lung Association supports regulation and enforcement to protect the air, water and other environmental resources during the exploration, extraction, production and trHn"",i!l.<non of natoraI gas, propane, and oil. The American Lung Association supports programs and policies to assist communities and individuals to reduce their exposure to indoor and outdoor air pollutants and to reduce their energy use. Residential and Commercial Fuel Combustion The American Lung Association supports programs and policies to encourage a transition from coal, oil, and biomass use in the residential and commercial sectors to cleaner alternatives. The American Lung Association supports the expanded use of natoraI gas, and propane where natoraI gas is not available, fur heating residential and commercial buildings, as a less polluting alternative to oil and other fossil fuels. The American Lung Association supports effurts to expand and trurinmin inftasIroctore for natoraI gas tr"'..:mi....;on and distribution. The American Lung Association opposes the use of unvented heating appliances and stoves in homes and businesses because of the dangers to human health indoors. The American Lung Association supports programs and policies to reduce the sulfur content of heating oil, including the use ofbiofuel blends. Residential Wood and Other Biomass Combustion The American Llmg Association recognizes that pollution from the combustion of wood and other biomass sources poses a significant threat to human health, and supports Dleasures to transition away from using these products for heat production. The American Lung Association caIls for effective enforcement of existing laws and regulations governing the combustion of wood and other biomass sources, as well as the expanded regulation of air pollution emissions from these sources. In particular, the American Lung Association caIls on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to significantIy strengthen its woodstove certification standards. The American Lung Association encourages individuals to avoid burning wood in homes where less polluting alternatives are available, and supports programs to replace residential woodstove with cleaner heating options, particularly for low-income persons. The American Lung Association strongly opposes the combustion of wood and other biomass sources at schools and institutions with'vuJnerable populations. The American Lung Association strongly opposes the use of outdoor wood-fired boilers for heating and other purposes, and supports measores to greatly reduce emissions from or eliminate outdoor wood-fired boilers. The American Lung Association recommends continuing research on the health 5 . , effects ofbuming wood and other biomass somces, and the technologies to reduce the emissions associated with the combustion of these fuels. IndU5trial Fuel Combustion The American Lung Association ."ppuils public policies requiring the inl<fllllRtion and openU:ion of state-of-the-art air pollution control systems at new w.d existing industrial facilities, such as pulp mills, steel mills, and manufacturing facilities. The American Lung Association strongly supports policies that encourage a transition from coal, oil, and biomass use in the industrial sector to cleaner alternatives. If conversion in the short- term is not possible, the American Lung Association supports public policies that require the installation of state-of-the-art air pollution control systems, and on-going measures to ensure strong enforcement and continuous compliance. Policy PrInciple on the Transportation Sector The tranBportation sector in the United States generates a significant share of the nation's air pollution, threatening the health and lives of millions of people, including those who are most vulnerable to banD. The American Lung Association supports measures to significant1y reduce the air pollution cansed by cars, trucks" and other mobile somces. The American Lung Association supports regulation and enforcement to protect the air, water and other environmental resomces during the exploration, extraction, production and transmission of tnmsportation fuels. The American Lung Association supports programs and policies to assist communities and individuals to reduce their exposure to mobile-somce air pollutants. The American Lung Association recognizes that many communities and workers are disproportionately exposed to emissions from tranBportation somces, at least in part becanse they live and work on or near these somces. The American Lung Association supports stringent. technology-forcing measures to reduce emissions from mobile somces through the use of: (1) advanced low- or zero- emission vehicle technology; (2) low-polluting alternative fuels; and (3) pollution control equipment and efficiency measures to further reduce emissions from existing vehicles. The American Lung Association supports reducing the suIfur levels in all gasoline, diesel, aviation, and marine fuels, and toxic air pollutants from all mobile somces. The American Lung Association supports improved federal, state and local policies, planning and fimding measures that reduce mobile-somce emissions through sustainable conununity planning and development The American Lung Association supports programs to reduce transportation energy use and to provide greater tranBportation alternatives. Cars, Trucks. and SUYs The American Lung Association supports a strengthening of the federal tailpipe emissions standards and federal fuel economy standards for Iight-duty cars and trucks to reduce conventional air pOllution and greenhouse gas emissions. The American Lung 6 , Association also supports California's ability to adopt stricter pollution regulations for light-duty vehicles and fuels, and supports the right of other states to adopt California standards. The American Lung Association supports vehicle inspection and maintenance programs and anti-idling programs to ensure low emissions throughout the vehicle life. Heavy-Duty Vehicles and Equipment The American Lung Association supports strengthening emissions standards for on-road and non-road heavy-duty engines and fuels including those used in trucks; construction, agricn1tural, and industrial equipment; and rail and marine applications. The American Lung Association supports establishing stringent greenhouse gas and fuel efficiency standards for heavy-duty vehicles. The American Lung Association supports vehicle inspection and maintenance programs for heavy-duty diesel vehicles to ensure low emissions throughout the vehicle life. To reduce the impact of in-use heavy-duty vehicle and engines, the American Lung Association supports measures to reduce or eliminRtp, engine idling, including school system anti-idling policies, truck-stop and port electrification, and the use of auxiliary power units to supply overnight heating, cooling, and other driver anlenities fur sIeeper-cab equipped long haul trucks. The American Lung Association supports programS and measures to reduce emissions from the existing fleet of on-road and non-road heavy-duty vehicles and engines. Such programs and measures include (1) requirements that publica1ly-funded projects mandate that all diesel construction equipment be retrofit with the best available technology to reduce particulate emissions; (2) continued funding and implementation of EP A's Diesel Emission Reduction Program; and (3) incentives to accelerate fleet turnover. Transportation Alternatives The American Lung Association supports efforts by state, regional, and local govermnents to reduce our dependence on the automobile, while expanding access to local goods, services and employment and improving public health. This includes support for and increased access to public transit, pedestrian-friendly community development, and expanded opportunities for walking and biking. The American Lung Association recognizes that transportation needs may be different for urban, suburban and roral areas. Transportation Funding and Planning The American Lung Association supports increased public funding for programs that reduce air pollution emissions from transportation sources including support for public transit, intercity rail, and other non-highway modes of transport. The American Lung Association encourages Congress to develop a consistent funding mechani"", for these critical investments. The American Lung Association supports the development of a national transportation policy ftamework to guide investment decisions that includes performance mefrics supporting sustainable communities. Such performance metrics should (1) integrate transportation investment, land-use planning, and air pollution reduction efforts, and (2) encourage development ofhea1thier, more compact, mixed-use communities that support accessible and affordable transportation alternatives for 7 . , residents of all income levels. This framework must also include the fair treatment and meaningful community involvement of all people with respect to the development, implementation and enforcement of any impacts reIated to transportation planning and policy to ensme everyone enjoys the same degree of protection from environmental and health hazards and equal access to the decision-making process to have a healthy environment in which to live, learn and work. Bio-fuels for Transportation The American Lung Association supports the increased use ofbio-fuels for transportation if such fuels are produced from sources, and using methods, which result in a significant net reduction in lifecycle emissions of air ponutants and carbon dioxide compared to petrolenm fuels. The American Lung Association does not support increased use of broadly available mid-range gasoline-ethanol blends (greater than 10 percent and less than 85 percent ethanol) until such blends are proven to result in no net increase in air pollutants and cause no damage to emission control systems on older in-use vehicles.. The American Lung Association believes that U.S. farm policies and transportation policies should be aligned to encourage bio-fuels development using sources that will provide the greatest net air quality benefit while not jeopardizing food resources. Ethanol in Reformulated Gasoline The American Lung Association supports the use of ethanol in reformulated gasoline to redoce emissions from transportation sources. However, the American Lung Association opposes increasing the allowable ethanol content in gasoline beyond ten percent, except for specially designated Flex-Fueled Vehicles. The American Lung Association believes th!If: air quality and public health may be harmed by the increased use of mid-range blends of ethanol in vehicles and engines that are not designed to use such fuels. The American Lung Association urges research and testing to ensme that these blends are compatible with the emissions control systems used on older in-use vehicles and other gasoline-powered engines. The American Lung Association urges EPA to adopt and enforce stringent and effective regulations to prevent mistaken or inappropriate fueling of vehicles and equipment not designed for such fuel Flex-Fueled Vehicles The American Lung supports the use ofESS, a blend of85 percent ethanol and 15 percent gasoline, for flex-fueled vehicles specifically designed to operate on this fuel E85 vehicles are required to meet the Slime tailpipe emissions standards as other light duty vehicles;"however, when using E85, E85 vehicles may have lower emissions of some pollutants than gasoline- fueled vehicles. The American Lung Association supports federal incentives for the purchase of E85 flex-fuel vehicles if and only if these incentives require the use ofE85. 8 . Mvanced Vehicle, Engines, and Fuels The Amlltican Lung Association supports public andptivate sector incentiv. and investrnertts for the researcb, development and demQDStrlItion of teclmologies that reduce public health impacts from the tral'!SpOrtation sector lllId lead to broadly available and affordable vehicles, equipment and. ib.eis with fewer Iifooycle emissions of air pollutants, includingwcenhouse gases. Such technologies inclu$1Jut are. not limited to advanced bl\tteries. elc:etrie vehicles and advat1ted biofuels. The American Lung AssociatiOIi supportS more stringent controls on air emissionstrom electricitY production, and in pm:tiQUiar the phase out on ooa1-fired generation to enable electricvehieles used across the country to contribute to overall reductions in air emissions. Marine and AiI'l:l'aft Engines The American Lung Assoeiatjon supportS the. EPA request to the Intemational Maritime Organi?atiOIi to liesignate U.S. coastal waters as an Emissions Control Area. The American Lung AssoeiatiOIi encourages EPA to n.tiate morestDngeni emissions 1imits and fuel requirements for aU ocean-going vessels regardless of national flag, to be lmp!eml3nt<:<J at the earliest possible date, and to include meanirlgfu1eontrols on emissions from these vesSels. The.AmeriCan Lung Association8\!Pports emissions requirements for aircraft that are comparable in stringency to other mobile SOunre emissionsst<mdards and supportS measures, including regulation, to reduce aviation emissions. The American Lung Association encourages the phase-out oflead itJ. aviation gasoline, and reductions in the su1fu:r content of aviation fuels. For more information on 'these poDcles, see these resoun:es: EnerllY Overview Document Electricity Generation Backl!TOund Document Heating Bacwoull.d Document Transoorllltion Backl!;I"ClUnd Document 9 . CCJ . > ..c > >- +-' Vi +-' .- Q) Vi +-' .- ~ +-' U U Q) CIJ C .- > V'J ro s.... .- :J .- +-' ('\.. 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(j) February IS, 20 II The HoooIllble Senator Bernie Sanders 322 Dirksen Senate Office Building U.S. Senate Washington, D.C. 20510 , Hooornble Senator Sanders, We appreciate your interest in biomass energy and thank you for co-sponsoring a briefing on this very important issue. The more robust the dialogue on renewable energy, the more likely we are to move quickly to a clean and sustainable energy future. We understund that the panel presenting on February 17lh consists chiefly of proponents of small- scale biomass, and we fully appreciate the differences in scale and potential impacts between these small facilities and utility-scale biomass power facilities. We find it troubling, however, that these proponents ofsmall-scaIe biomass energy have done little to address the potential impacts of utility- scale power genemtion and large-scale wood-pellet manufacture on forests of V ermont and the region. It is important that the audience hears the full story about what the current explosion in proposed biomass electricity genemtion, pellet prodnction and "energy wood" means for Vermont's forests, air, and carbon balance, and we ask that the following issues be dealt with in full at the briefing: Generating energy from wood emits more carbon than using fossil fuels Biomass emits more carbon dioxide than fossil fuels per unit energy produced, and is never a "carbon neutral" fuel. Biomass can theoretically be a "low carbon" fuel if it consists of materials that would have decomposed and emitted carbon dioxide anyway even if they weren't burned (though burning these materials for energy emits carbon dioxide instantaneously, as opposed to over many years, as occurs during decomposition). I However, as determined by the Massachusetts-commissioned Manomet Study, when living trees are cut to provide fuel, this increases carbon emissions for several decades compared to using fossil fuels.2 For utility-scale biomass power plants, it takes at least forty years to regrow the forest enough to resequester net carbon emissions to the level that would have been emitted if coal had been burned, and more than ninety years to draw down net carbon emissions to the level of natural gas. The difference in net carbon emissions between biomass and fossil fuels is smaller for high- efficiency thermal-only and combined heat and power facilities, but it still takes ten, twenty, or thirty years for the carbon payback to occur. This means that even at small, efficient facilities, biomass energy is actually tncreostng climate-warming gases in the atmosphere right when it is most urgent to reduce our carbon emissions. The Biomass Energy Resource Center participated in the Manomet Study. The conclusion that net carbon emissions from biomass exceed those from fossil fuels for several decades created an I No matter what the genesis of the fuel, uliIity-scale biomass power generation emits arouud 150"10 the CO, of coa~ and 300 - 400% the Co, of natural gas, per unit electricity genemted. 2 Commissioned by the State of Massachusetts to determine the carbon status of biomass power, the Manomet Study's conclusions were incorpomted by the State into draft regnlations that restrict the eligibility ofbiornass power lbr renewable energy credilll to those fucilities that can demonstmte lifecyc1e carbon emissions no greater than 50% those of a natural gas fuciJity, over a 2O-year period. . uncomfortable situation fur BERe, $ince it colll1'lldicted BERC's previous claims that burning wood was carbon ~tral. We hope that BERC willllDt downplay tIH: Manamet results at the briefing. "ED8llW wood" demand alteady exdledS supply from Vermont's forests In or~ to avoid using co~ial-grIIde timber and wood from old-growth forests for fuel, energy wnod must be derived from two main sources:3 Lritlllinll. residues: The tops, branches, and cull trees left over after C(lnUnercial timber harvesting. This materUd is sometimes considered to be a "low carbon" sourceoffuet, since ifleft in the forest it would decompose over 10 - 25 yeI!tS (in contrast, however, homing emits this carbon instantaIleously). a us Forest Seryjce data fot Vetmon! shows that tIH: S\llte gCllCl'lltes about 522,000 green tons oflogging residues annunJly. Almost. one-ha1f' of these may be available for use as fuel, or 261,000 tQII!l. Low-erade trees cut soecifi~lly fur fuel. Unlike the.l'llSidues from fotestlyeperiltions, harvesting Dew l1'eeSfor fuel dramatiunJly inct~ carbon emissions relative to fussil fuels over tIH: next 20 to 100 years, liecause this is not material that "would have decomposed llI1YWUY" - these are wbole trees that were sequest~ng carbon, until they were cut. lJ BERC's recentlUlalysiss of "net available low-grade growth" in Vem10ilt estimates that 894,900 green tons are available annually, after firCWOQd and otIH:ruses taken into account. (This estimate is just 61 % of the 1.466,982 tons that BERC said were available in 2007/ an estiJnaWtbat has ~ widely cited by biomass developers and BERC itself') These combined SO!JICCS of fuel might be sufficient to provide fuel fora variety of small biomass- burning facilities in Vermont, assuming that citizens and policy-makers are not troubled that replacing oil and gas with biomass inereases carbon emissionS over CUrNut levels from fossil ~ use. However, as demonstrated in the following figure, demand for energy wood from existing and proposed m.cilities in Vermont actually far exceeds supply, meaning forest cutting will need to increase dramatically to meet demand. Demand for biomass fuel will far exceed even commercial sawtimber harvests in Vermont. J Some JlIilI residues are used for fuel by existing biomass plants in Vermont, bill it is genellllly accepted thaI this material ollen has higher value uses. USFS data indicate that Vermont genemles around 200.000 tons/yr. , It is important 10 relDln low-diameter material on-site. to maintain soil nutrient stocks alld build soil carbou. For nutrient-poor soils, much more than one-half of residues should be retained. · Biomass Energy Resource Center, 2010. Vem)<)nl Wood Fuel Supply Study. 2010 Update (available at h!!J!;/ /www.biomnss.ccnlcr.uru,timalI~s/storit..'SIV1,VFSSt1Ddatc20 1 0 .odD · Elleemive summary containing the 2007 estintateis available at hHn:il\\~'W.bi(lmas..'lcentcr.on!{od(,,^,r \VOl'll Fuel S;unr1v Sludv I...'x~\'..summ:.rulf .~ J'- Wood demand at proposed fadlltlesln Vermont exceeds supply; demand atex!sting and proposed facilities Ismore than doublethe supply .', S"'"WlJ...''' . . Re$idues plus "net avaUable Il>w-grade growth" (NALGI wood (SERe's numbers): 1,156,087 tons/yr . Wood demand at proposed . facUltIes: 3.251,!lOO tons/yr .. . . Wood demand at exIstiJlg . facilities: 744.000 tons/yr · Total demand: 2,495,900 tons/yr o 'ocludes24,OOOtol'ls/yrforVTsthooI blotnas$program BurnIng wood for energy Increases ilIr pollution ReplllCing fossil fuels with biomass doesn't jUst increase carbon pollution - it emits particulate matter, nitrogen oxides, lI!Id r.Jarbon monoxide at similar or higher levels !ban from oil and coal burning, and emissions mr exceed those from Illltural gas. The MeNell biomass energy plant is already VerJDOnt's biggest polluter, but at least another three facilities are proposed in the state that will rival it for pollution output . EP A's dmft "boiler rule" s1lIndards7, issued as a legal reqUirement under the Clean Air Act, illustrate this problem. While smaD biQmass burners are ~Ili 10 the same particulate matter emission limit as coal, S the standards for"~r source" biomass i>unulrs allow them to emit: . 8 times In* particulates !ban coal . 66times more lICid gases than coal . up to 80 times more carbon lnOnoxide than coal . up 10 2,33 times more dioxins than coal 7 Federal Register, Friday, JtIlle 4, 2010. 'Environmental Protection Allew:y, 40 CFR Part 63. NntlOJJSJ emission standards for bnzardous air pollutanls for lI1Ilior sources: industrial, commen:iaI, and institllliollllI boilm and pr= heaters; proposed rUle. (BPA's final boiler rule is due 0111 in February 2011; the Agency bas indicated tballhe finlII SlllIl<lards will likely be Wtaker than the rules as proposed.) . 8 In a lener to EPA on the boiler rule, the Biorasss Energy Resource Center bas requested tbaI EPA 10ll8elI the standards even lbrlher, so thet theSllllllJ blll1lelS which EPA wants to perform as well as c:oaI burners wou1d be llIIowed to emit more than X limes. the particulate pollotiOD limit thel EPA proposed for bolb QIllI and biomass. , . (the only pollutant regulated under this rule where coal emits more is mercury). EP A based these proposed IilIlits on the "best performing" (lowest emitting) facilities that already exist, so what this says is that EP A acknowledges that burning biomass is dirtier than coal, and that it will stay that way for a long time under these new rules. Even so, the biomass industry has responded by claiming that these minimal standards will put it out of business. Where's the balance? When taxpayers and ratepayers learn these facts about biomass energy, they ask why they are being required tn subsidize something !hat's dirtier than coal in the name of renewable energy. We can understand why schools, hospitals, tnwns, and even states want to reduce dependence on oil- we live and work in these places too. Many people do believe that small-scale biomass energy may have a limited role to play in displacing fussil fuels, but given the steeply mounting costs in increased forest cutting, carbon emissions. and air pollution as the proportion of energy from biomass increases. it's important to be realistic about what that role can be. Many people understand at a fundamental level that a civilization that burns its forests for energy is on the way out. Indeed all over the country, wherever biomass facilities are proposed, people are objecting to the idea that furests -their forests - should be opened up to energy extraction. They object when they learn that biomass energy isn't carbon neutral as they've been tnld, but that it actually increases carbon emissions compared to fossil fuels fur several years, if not decades, with only a thin hope that the carbon released will be resequestered in re-growing forests. 9 Citizens can do the math - and when they see how low efficiency biomass power generation requires exploiting our forests, they wonder why policy-makers aren't doing the math, too. They especially wonder why policy-makers seem intent on providing an ever-increasing raft of taxpayer and ratepayer subsidies to an industry that appears tn need them forever. Wehope this letter will encourage balance, and we urge those who read it to dig a little deeper into the full story on biomass. Sincerely, Prof: Willinm Moomaw, PhD Director, Center for International Environment and Resource Policy, Tufts University Prof. Lara Shore-Sheppard, PhD Department of Economics, Williams College Concerned Citizens ofPownal Dr. Mary S. Booth, PhD Partnership for Policy Integrity · Are policy-rnnkers and landowners ready to guarantee that they won't recut forests for decades, until all the carbon emitted by biomass burning has been re-sequestered? This is what is required for biomass to achieve "low carbon" status. Gf) Review of the Manomet Biomass Sustainability and Carbon Policy Study Prepared by Mary S. Booth, PhD For the Clean Air Task Force July, 2010 Table of Contents ExECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................2 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................ 5 MAIN CONCLUSIONS OF THE MANOMET STUDY ........................................................................................ 5 How THE MANOMET MODEL WAS CONSTRUCTED .................................................................................... 7 Assumptions npon which the study conclusions depeod ........................................................................ II REVIEW OF ASSUMPTIONS ......................................................................................................................... 12 Large trees are used for biomass fue1.......................................~..............................................................12 Harvested forest stands must not be recut pending carbon sequestration............................................... 13 A high percentage of tops and limbs are used as fuel............................................................................. 15 Soil nutrient implications of taking tops and limbs for fuel................................................................16 Biomass harvesting only occurs on land already being harvested for timber .........................................18 Soil carlJon emissions are negligible.......................................................................................................18 Firewood harvesting is not impacted .................:....................................................................................19 Wood pellet manufacture incurs no more carbon debt than green chips ................................................21 Wood from land-clearing incurs little carbon debt.................................................................................22 CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................................................................................ 23 I t !; EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The purpose of this document is to evaluate the science behind the Manomet biomass report and the validity of the report's main conclusions concerning net carbon emissions from biomass energy, relative to fossil fuels. The report comes to two maln.concluslons: 1. For utility-scale generation, net emissions are higher from biomass than fossil fuels. WhElD biomass is used to generate electricity In utility-scale plants, the net emissions after 40 years, even taking forest regrowth Into consideration, are stilI higher than If the power had been generated with coaL When biomass is used Instead of natural gas, net emissions are stilI higher even after ninety years (exhibit 6-14, p. 112). 2. Net emissions profiles from biomass thermal and CHP plants may be better. The Manomet study concludes that when biomass replaces fossil fuels for small-scale thermai applications and In combined heat and power plants, net emissions by 2050 can be lower than would occur if 011 had been burned, but are stilI significantly higher than If natural gas were used as fueL The study relIes on a number of assumptions to achieve these conclusions that minimize the calculation of net carbon emissions from biomass power, meaning that actual emissions are likely greater than the study concludes. Thus, the first conclusion of the report - that net emissions from biomass are greater than from coal and especially natural gas even after decades of regrowth by forests - is qualitatively correct, but it likely underestimates the magnitude of biomass emissions. The second conclusion, that small-scale thermal and CHP biomass facilities may yield a carbon "dlvldend" relative to fossil fuels after forty years is likely not correct, since actual biomass emissions likely exceed fossil fuel emissions even under the thermal and CHP scenarios. The study's major conclusion, that net biomass emissions are slgnlflcantly higher than If natural gas were used as fuel even after ninety years of forest regrowth, Is especially notable for the New England area where the majority of electricity generated comes from natural gas. Using biomass to "reduce" emissions from the power generation sector wIll have the opposite effect, particularly where biomass displaces power generation from natural gas. The Manomet model estimates net carbon emissions for both biomass and fossil fuels as fuel Iifecycle emissions minus forest carbon sequestration on a hypothetical acre which Is cut for timber but not biomass (the fossil fuel/buslness-as-usual scenario), and one which Is cut for both timber and biomass (the biomass scenario). As the forest regrows on the plot cut for biomass, the net carbon balance transitions from representing a "carbon debt" to providing a "carbon dividend", as carbon moves from the atmosphere into new forest growth. This "single plot" analysis of forest recovery after cutting selVes as the building block for an integrated analysis, which assesses the~ cumulative Impact of a biomass Industry that cuts new forest for fuel each year and thus increases the relative amount ofland that stili has a "carbon debt". The study unfortunately downplays the cumulative effects analysis, instead focusing on the "single plot" analysis, which would only be relevant to the calculation of carbon impacts from a facility that operated for a single year. Some of the many assumptions upon which the Manomet study's conclusions rely are listed here; all minimize the calculation of carbon emissions from biomass. The model is sensitive tu these assumptions, therefore If anyone of them is violated in reality, actual emissions will be greater than reported In the study's conclusions. 2 1. Large trees are used for biomass fuel. Because forest regrowth rates In the model are to a large extent a function of the Intensity of harvest (with heavier harvests oflarger, older trees opening up more space for regrowth to occur), the model achieves maximal regrowth and resequestration of carbon released by biomass burning by assuming that relatively large, old trees are logged for biomass. However, this is not representative of actual biomass harvesting, which is more likely to remove low-diameter, low-value material. Actual regrowth rates of forests where low-diameter material is removed will be much slower than modeled. 2. Harvested forest stands must not be recut pending carbon sequestration. The model additionally requires that once a stend has been cut, it must not be re-cut until It has achieved a large proportion of the amount of standing carbon in an unmanaged stend The Manomet report itself aclmowledges this Is unlikely. 3. A high percentage of tops and limbs are used as fuel. Because the tops and limbs of trees harvested for timber under the BAU scenario are assumed to stey in the forest and rot, producing carbon, the model assumes almost no carbon penalty for collecting this material and burning It The model assumes that 65% of all tops and limbs generated on acres harvested for biomass can be removed from the forest for use as fuel, supplying a relatively large "low carbon" source of fuel in the model. Removal of this amount of tops and limbs appears to be necessary to achieving the transition from biomass carbon debt to carbon dividend In the model, but is not compatible with maintaining soil fertility and other forest ecological functions. 4. Biomass harvesting only occurs on land that Is already being harvested for timber. The study takes as Its BAU assumption that when land Is harvested for timber, all residues are left in the forest, whareas a portion is collected for fuel In the biomass scenario. The study draws no conclusions concerning carbon dynamics and regrowth in forests cut solely for biomass. This assumption Is necessary for generating the "low carbon" fuel source of tops and limbs from commercial timber harvesting that Is integral to calculating carbon dividends from biomass in a timely way. Land cut solely for biomass would take a much longer time to achieve a carbon dividend. 5. Soli carbon emissions are negligible. The soil carbon pool Is extremely large, and a significant fraction oflt Is easily decomposed and evolved as C02 when soils are disturbed by logging. However, the Manomet model completely disregards this source of emissions that are associated with biomass harvesting. This assumption Is challenged by the author of a major review on soil carbon emissions cited, and dismissed, by the Manomet study. 6. Firewood harvesting Is not Impacted. Although Indirect land use effects can be major sources of greenhouse gas emissions from biomass harvest, and although the RFP for the Manomet study requested that the study evaluate indirect iand use effects, the study does not acknowledge that displacement of firewood harvest by biomass harvest could result in "leakage" of firewood harvesting and more forestland being cut for firewood. 7. Wood pellet manufacture Incurs no more carbon debt than green chips. Although it Is well-estebllshed that manufacture of wood pellets requires significant inputs of green wood In excess of the heating value actually embodied In the pellets produced, as well as significant fossil fuel expenditures, the study treats wood pellets as embodying the same amount of carbon and energy as green wood chips. 3 !. 1 8. Wood from Iand-cIearlng incurs little carbon debt. The study concludes that woody biomass from non-forestty sources, such as from land-clearing, will not entail any greater greenhouse gas emissions than forestry wood. However, no modeling is conducted to substantiate this conclusion. The study also does not discuss how wood from land-clearing can be considered eligibie under requirements that biomass fueis be avaIlable on a renewable and recurring basis, as required under the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative. To the extent that these assumptions are not warranted, the Manomet study has underestimated the net carbon emissions of biomass power, and poliey-makers should be extremely cautious about accepting the study's optimistic conclusions concerning the point in time when biomass can start providing a carbon dividend. 4 INTRODUCTION The purpose of this document Is to evaluate the science behind the Manomet biomass report and the validity of the report's main conclusions. The Manomet study is large, and covers much background material on biomass policies in the United States and internationally. This evaluation wlll focus only on the core conclusions of the study that deal with carbon accounting. Overall, the conclusion of this evaluation Is that the Manomet study's basic approach to calculating net carbon emissions from biomass Is valid, but it relies on a number of overly optimistic assumptions and omits categories of greenhouse gas emissions from the study's lifecycle analysis. It Is highly likeiy that net carbon emissions from biomass are actually higher than concluded by the Manomet study. Organization of this paper This summary reviews the carbon modeling aspects of the Manomet report. It begins by setting out the two main conclusions of the study. This Is followed by an explanation of how the Manomet carbon model was constructed. Next Is a short list of the main assumptions of the model. upon which the conclusions depend. Thls is followed by a critique of each assumption. Once the assumptions behlnd the modeling are alred. this allows the conclusions of the Manomet study to be assessed more thoroughiy. Throughout, this summary paper relies extensively on text copied from the Manomet report Itself. with page numbers included to guide the reader to relevant sections. Points of particular Importance are highlighted. MAIN CONCLUSIONS OF THE MANOMET STUDY Regarding net carbon emissions from biomass relative to fossil fuels. the study had two main conclusions: 1. For ntillty-scale generation, net emissions are blgher from biomass than fossil fuels. When biomass Is used to generate electricity in utility-scale plants. the net emissions after 40 years, even taking forest regrowth into consideration. are still higher than if the power had been generated with coal When biomass is used instead of natural gas. net emissions are still found to be higher after ninety years (exhibit 6-14, p. 112). 2. Net emissIons profiles from biomass thermal and CUP plants may be better. The Manomet study concludes that when biomass replaces fossil fuels for small-scale thermal applications and in combined heat and power plants, net emissions by 2050 can be lower than would occur If oll had been burned, but are still significantly higher than if natural gas were used as fuel ' Prior to further discussion. It Is important to note that the results presented in the executive summary of the Manomet report do not represent the full results presented in the body of the report. Most Importantly, the study concluded that the net carbon balance of biomass energy depended on the intensity of harvesting both for commercial timber and biomass removal itself, and thus examined six different harvesting scenarios, reporting the carbon balance results under each. Unfortunately, the results of only one of the scenarios Is presented In the executive summary. 5 ~ . , These are the results for cumulative carbon impacts presented in the executive summary. Negative numbers indicate that In the year specified, net emissions from biomass still exceed those from fossil fuels: Figur.. 4: CII'lIUIaI!',<, Carbon Dh'ldcod, from EioOla." Rcp!arClllcnt of Fossil Fuel Blomus<':ullllllal!w" R(1!...,!ion in Carboll Emiswns (Net ofFon.,,1 Carbon ,Sequestratiun) Oil (:r6) COol', (ii1~ G..... yt....r 'fllernlall Iik"Clrk Iherm.1 lik'Clrk CHP 21)511 25% .3')(. .13% 110% 2100 U% 19% J!t.'ll '('.~% Below Is the full table from Chapter 6, from which the results presented in the executive summary are drawn. The table presented in the executive summary repeats the results from Harvest Scenario 1. The assumptions behind these results are discussed In more detail below, but critical to placing these results in context Is understanding that all harvest scenarios assume that biomass harvesting occurs only on land already harvested for timber at varying IntensIties, and that a large proportion of tops and limbs from commercial timber harvesting are available as "low-carbon' biomass fuel Exhlblr 6-14: (:ulllul'lh'cC"b"" Oh1dl.'llds: 21110 10 2051J Hanvst Fo.sil Fuel T.d......''''*' Sr:cnario Oil ('6), (:",1. G",. (;,..,.. lhernwl EJct."trh.- 'ThC'fll$.,ll Eb:tric I 22~ .31b'~ ~13~!il .Il\}>>;; 2 34Jl(\ ll~~ ~% "~l~. ,~ 8"6 :H''\t .3~"" .J~8'li> < IS;" ~l.,qb ~2;.'hs .129'~. 5 16% .11% -21% .I!6'Jj. " 7% .25'1(, .3{;.lli. ~11)3% Exhlbll ('.15: CUlllulatlve Ulrbon Dividends: 2111ll It> 2U10 Itfn_ f.,.dl fuel r.clmoluSY S.'~fld.riu Oil (#(,). OMI. G3$. G;1S. 11wS'nlo,1 EIe.:uit- Thermal Elcctrk I -10% 19% 12% .63"" 2 S6% 42% 36'S., -18.... 3 .)1% 8~l(, 0% I .g61~, of 43.... Z4'!b 17% .'\.1"- ~ J7l1>.. 16% ')>to ..(,?!f. 6 ;tJ"l. 8% ..l'.'il .s6~ 6 . How THE MANOMET MODEL WAS CONSTRUCTED The Manomet model compares the emissions from biomass power for electricfty only, thermal only, and combined heat and power plants against emissions from gas and coal in the case of electricity only plants, and gas and oil in the case of thermal and CHP plants. Lifecycle emissions consist of emissions at the stack from fuel combustion, as well as emissions associated wlth collection and transportation of the fuel. Net carbon emissions are estimated as fuellifecycle emissions minus forest carbon sequestration on a hypothetical acre which is cut for timber hut not hiomass (the fossil fuel/business-as-usual scenario), and one which is cut for both timber and biomass (the biomass scenario). Net carbon emissions from fossil fuels and biomass burning are compared by calculating the amount of lIfecycle carbon emissions which are sequestered into new forest growth under the two scenarios. The model employs the Forest Vegetation Simulator, a model that uses Forest Service data on tree growth and forest composition, to estimate the recovery and regrowth of the forest followlng harvesting. The report describes the approach: In general, the carbon accounting model shonld be premised on some knowledge of how lands wlll be managed in the future absent biomass harvests, and this becomes a critical reference point for analyzing whether burning biomass for energy results in increased or decreased cumulative GHG emissions over time. (p.99). At the most general level, the carbon accounting framework we employ is constructed around comparisons offossll fuel scenarios wlth biomass scenarios producing equivalent amounts of energy. The fossil fuel scenarios are based on llfecycle emissions of GHGs, using .C02 equivalents" as the metric (C02e). Total GHG emissions for the fossil scenarios include releases occurring in the production and transport of natural gas, coal or oil to the combustion facility as well as the direct stack emissions from burning these fuels for energy. Similarly, GHG emissions from biomass combustion include the stack emissions from the combustion facility and emissions from harvesting. processing and transporting the woody material to the facility. Most Importantly, both the fossil fuel and biomass scenarios also Include analyses of changes In carbon storage In forests through a comparison of net carbon accumulation over time on the harvested acres with the carbon storage results for an equivalent stand that has not been cut for biomass but that has been harvested for timber under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. Our approach includes the above- and below-ground live and dead carbon pools that researchers have identified as important contributors to forest stand carbon dynamics. The conceptual modeling framework for this study is intended to address the question of how atmospheric GHG levels wlll change ifbiomass displaces an equivalent amount offossil fuel generation in our energy portfolio. With this objective, the modeling quantifies and Compares the cumulative net annual change In atmospheric C02e for the fossil and biomass scenarios, considering both energy generation emissions and forest carbon sequestration. In the fossil fuel scenarios, there Is an initial C02e emissions spike associated with energy generation-assumed here to be equivalent to the 7 ~ ~ energy that would be produced by the combustion of biomass harvested from one acre-which Is then fonowed by a drawing down over time (resequestratlon) of atmospheric C02e by an acre afforest from which no biomass Is removed for energy generation. For the biomass scenario, there Is a similar Initial release of the carbon from burning wood harvested from an identical acre of natural forest. folloWed by continued future growth and sequestration of carbon In the harvested stand. (p. 96) In the modeled acre cut for biomass, the forest Is cut for timber at the same intensity as in the BAU scenario, but then more trees are removed to provide biomass fueL Additionally, a portion (65%) of the branches and treetops from thll trellS cut for timber are removed as fuel, and the same amount of tops and branches from trellS cut for biomass are removlld as fuel, along with all trunk wood. Themodlll thus assumllS that 35% of all tops and branchllS are left onslte, and that this material rots and emits C02 oVllr tlmll. The Manomet study examines six alternativll harvesting scenarios at various intensitillS of removaL The analysis that compares the carbon sequestered over time on a single fOTllSt acre under the BAU scenario, versus that on an acre cut for biomass, servllS as the basic "building block" of an Integrated analysis that considers the summed emissions over time, and the summed regrowth over time. ThIs can best be explained by Inserting the figuTllS 6-2a and 6-2b from the Manomet study. The first graph shows the regrowth on an acre of forest harvllSted only for timber (BAU) and one harvested for timber, with additional trees cut to provide biomass fuel. Because the heavier removal on the acre cut for biomass actually increases the growth rate in the recovering forest, the two curves eventually converge: ..0 r. I WITH BIOMASS HARVEST ... , 1M: .,1 ..' .... ..! "" ,"",.--. , I~'- &!r ; 12Doobi .. ; I I n. I ',ft ..' "U 1 .. Year after cutting ~ ~ m ~ ~ ~ m ~ q ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ K m ~ w ~ ~ Figure I. Forest growth following harvest in the "business-as-tlSllll!"timber borvesting sceoario. and the sceoario which harvesIs for both timber and biomass. This gmph is labeled 6-18 in the Mm1oml:l report. 8 , The next graph shows the cumulative net emissions from biomass and fossil fuel combustion, tracking the reduction in net emissions through time as the forest grows back. The single regrowth curve represents the subtraction of the BAU curve from the biomass curve in the graph above, essentially treating the carbon that would have been sequestered under the BAU scenario, which Is now lost, as an "emission" that Is associated with biomass harvesting. Immediately following harvest, the biomass scenario thus starts out with a "carbon debt" of an additional 9 tons of carbon that are harvested for biomass fuel after the initial 11 tons of carbon are removed for commercial timber. The point where the curve (which describes the net emissions from biomass burning) Intersects the flat line (which describes the cumulative emissions from fossll fuel burning) is the point In time when the net emissions of the two scenarios are equivalent. This occurs at approximately Year 32 in this scenario. " Bb.'Th1i\ (arbo:'! nfbt RC'IJ!i'Jt' to Fc>!:sll Fut!l 11 t" ~~. 7(, ~r: , iln1l:" of EqlJat : Ctltntddlive C,Hoon Fhlx : . : , . , . . , , , , . , , 1~ ~ ~ ~ ~ M . >> ,~ ~ ".""''/---- ... J., .l. t~ . t I I I I I I I I I ... n , Caroo,O",dend RcI.I.'JJ!toFaS5'J Fuel :0 ... I J J .' J I I I I I V " (nrtlon R<>l<,o:;cd IroMSurning flY>s11 Flli>'lor (qul",'e"I energy Chal~ In StVr'ed (.afi>:n): BiomJSi Stara Ca~bo1l mi "lVS BAU Staru:! Carbcn }.-; Figure 2. Biol11llSS ..rbon debt under lite biOll1llSS scenario. relative to..rbon emissioos ftom fossil fuel use, for foresl cutting ftom a single year. The two lines cross al Year 32, a point where nel emissions ftom biOll1llSS have achieved parity willt net emissioos ftom fossil fuels. Prior to litis point, biOll1llSS power represeots a carbon debt; aller this point, il provides a carbon dividend, bul only for a single year's wordt of CUlling on a particular bervesled area. This graph is labeled 6-2b in the Maaomet report. It is important to understand that this curve only describes the recovery of carbon and the net carbon balance on a single acre ofland barvested for biomass. The objective of the approach is to track regrowth following harvest through time, to determine the year in which the net carbon release from biomass is equivalent to the net release by an equ ivaJent amount of energy produced by fossil fuels - the "time of equal cumulative carbon flux", which for this plot is approximately at Year 32. However, this does not describe the integrated picture of carbon emissions from a biomass facility, which operates continuously over many years and requires new forest to be cut every year. The integrated picture is more complex and consists of a series of curves, one for each year of cutting. Taking Manomet's graph of recovery on a single acre, above, and changing It to represent 9 ~ ~ several years of cutting produces the following graph, which for the sake of clarity and spacing treats the forest cutting episodes as if they happen every five years, instead of every year as they would in reality: , " , ". 1', " , \0. :,t, , . . . Y:ar:~er:W~~ t.' ;" ,o,~ ,f;;:';;::::~:?f~ /'" '...'" .,..< .../ . I .......... ....... .,",,,,/ .,.,' . " .-- ," / "... , I "" '"" ,.' " // ,,/," . "",,/ "" ",,/ ",," ~ ';'00'1 DI''''10el'td I " / ", . // // // He;)t vc to Fo'),;'; fud I /" .... /'., // I /" ./...- // . ,/ ,/ ," + , , , iimf'\offqlJ.lt Curnul..ltivt." c.nrn.m flux FllstJl/<lt<lll:atlilar32. ....__so_net _OUllilaI1<IIngare Utr>ns,1OIl%ofthe_of _fuel_ " I , , , . , " : / .. / ..... (.l}~On !tE>I(lJ~d .-~-"H~'dK'\~,"l"lx>>-+)eb{----- ---JI / / ./ VO'V) ,aU!f'll'lg Fossil Ft..c-I for EqujvJI~"'lt [OI::'''g)l' I RelJ.tlvC' 10 Fos~il f.uct / I...: / .... / " .. I , J/ ' ... , .. "..n........__.......... .__,..n..'I' ' / , " J / /,/ /' / .,' I / ,.... 1/ .." / .... "T.n.____n__.n --+--:.,--.,0 X" / " // .,' ..,/, ,.', , ..:t:::.::--~;:~;.~:;;~:~.;t~<., / !J __4'.___....:..__.....*........::.__.-:..0' 4lhpJotcut:atYear / 32........- OUllilaI1<IIngare 7"'Jl/<It all: at Year 32. ... alJout:r1lDnS. --.ding..... sliII20lDnS.:Ill2'lIofthe 155%01'__ _from_fuel_ _fuel_ '" TotalaalJon ._.I'tI.....1Iqg BlYear31 undar_............after7 .cuItlnp": 1J3 tons, or1t7ll; oftbe 77lD11Semlaedhyfaosll fuels...... tile"""", pooIod [7 xl1 lDDs) 1':. Figure 3. Iutegmted au:bon emissions for 0 hypothetical bi01llllss f""itity. assessed over 0 mnnber ofy..... Whereas dIe first plot cut bes regrown and ncbieved parity with fossil fuel emissiollS by Yeer 32. this is not the case for on subsequent plots CUI. which still hove carbon debts outstnnding, EmissiOIlS from lID IlClUlIl fucility. as assessed in this integml<d picllD'e. are considerably higher thIlO for the single plot nnnlysis presented obove. At Y.... 32. net emissiollS from biomass in this bypodletical exnmple are still 147"/0 of those from fossil fuels. A central problem with the Manomet study is the amount of space the report devotes to discussing the recovery of a single plot after cutting. and the relatively minimal of space used to discuss the Integrated picture of total facility carbon emissions. This may be confusing to the typical reader of the report who is unlikely to have time to review it In detail. As can be seen from the analysis associated with the last graph. It takes much longer to achieve parity between biomass and fossil fuel carbon emissions when more than one year of cutting is considered. Whereas the single year analysis finds parity for biomass and fossil fuel emissions at Year 32, cumulative analysis of several years finds that biomass emissions are stili 147% offossil fuel emissions at Year 32. The Manomet report does make this point. However. the analysis of cumulative effects, which is central to understanding the Impact of biomass power, is only found at the very end of the report, where it is described as simply "another way" of looking at the data (this description also occurs In the executive summary, after the explanation of single-year results), 10 , , Another way of comparing the relative contributions of carbon debts and carbon dividends is to estimate the difference In cumulative net atmospheric carbon emissions between using biomass and fossil fuel for energy at some future point In time. Due to the importance of demonstrating progress In reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 as part of the Massachusetts Global Warming Solutions Act; we have provided such a comparison for our six harvest scenarios in Exhibit 6-14. (p.ll1) Chapter 6, where the modeling results are described, devotes 15 pages to developing the results for the single-year analysis, even presenting charts such as exhibit 6-13 that create the impression that the time to parity under different forms of energy generation (thermal, CHP, and electric-only) is as low as 7 years when oil thermal heat is replaced, a conclusion that would only be true if a biomass facilit;y operated for a single year. then shut down. A single page Is devoted to discussion of the integrated multi-year analysis. In the executive summary, these same time-to-parity results for the single-year analysis are presented before the discussion of cumulative effects, giving the Impression that these are the more significant results. This Is a major deficit in the report, particularly since the actoal tlme-to-parity results for the cumulative effects analysis are never calculated. Assumptions upon which the stuqy conclusions depend All of the assumptions listed below minimize the calculation of net carbon emissions from biomass. To the extent that these assumptions are not warranted, the Manomet study has underestimated the actual carbon emission impacts of biomass power, calling Into question its conclusion that biomass will emit less net carbon over time than other forms of generation. 1. Large trees are used for biomass fuel. Because forest regrowth rates In the model are to a large extent a function of the Intensity of harvest (with heavier harvests oflarger, older trees opening up more space for regrowth to occur), the model achieves maximal regrowth and resequestration of carbon released by biomass burning by assuming that relatively large, old trees are logged for biomass. 2. Harvested forest stands must Dot be recut pending carbon sequestration, The model additionally requires that once a stand has been cut, it must not be re-cut until it has achieved a large proportion of the amount of standing carbon in an unmanaged stand. 3. A high percentage of tops and limbs are used as fuel. Because the tops and limbs oftrees harvested for timber under the BAU scenario are assumed to stay in the forest and rot, producing carbon, the modei assumes almost no carbon penalty for collecting this material and burning It The model assumes that 65% of all tops and limbs generated on acres harvested for biomass can be removed from the forest for use as fuel, supplying a relatively large "low carbon" source of fuel in the model. 4. Biomass harvesting only occurs on land that Is already being harvested for timber. The study takes as its BAU assumption that land is harvested for timber, and that all residues are left in the forest In this case, whereas a portion is collected for fuel in the " ~ -I.- biomass scenario. The study draws no conclusions concerning carbon dynamics and regrowth In forests cut solely for biomass. 5. Soli carbon emissions are negligible. The soil carbon pool is extremely large, and a significant fraction of It is easily decomposed and evolved as C02 when soils are dIsturbed by loggfng. However, the Manomet model completely disregards this source of emissions that are associated with biomass harvesting. 6. Firewood harvesting Is not Impacted. Although Indirect land use effects can be major sources of greenhouse gas emissIons from biomass harvest, and although the RFP for the Manomet study requested that the study evaluate Indirect land use effects, the study does not acknowledge that displacement of firewood harvest by biomass harvest could result In "leakage" of firewood harvesting and more forestland being cut for firewood. 7. Wood pellet manufacture incurs no more carbon debt than green chips. Although it is well-established that manufacture of wood pellets requires significant inputs of green wood In excess of the heating value actually embodied in the pellets produced, as well as significant fossil fuel expenditures, the study treats wood pellets as embodying the same amount of carbon and energy as green wood chips. 8. Wood from land-clearing Incurs UttIe carbon debt. The study concludes that woody biomass from non-forestry sources, such as from land-clearlng. will not entail any greater greenhouse gas emissions than forestry wood. However, no modeling Is conducted to substantiate this conclusion. REVIEW OF ASSUMPTIONS Large trees are used for biomass fuel Because forest regrowth rates In the model are to a large extent a function of the intensity of harvest (with heavier harvests of larger, older trees opening up more space for regrowth to occur), the model achieves maximal regrowth and resequestratlon of carbon released by biomass burning by assuming that relatively large, old trees are logged for biomass. Alternatively, for some stands, and especially for slow-growlng older stands, harvesting would be expected to Increase the carbon accumulation rate (at least after the site recovers from the Initial effects of the harvest) and lead to relatively more rapid Increases In carbon divldends.Determlnlng the time path for paying off the carbon debts and accumulating carbon dividends is a principle focus of our modeling approach. (p. 99) Although biomass harvesting is often presented as a way of clearing out small trees in overgrown forests, the model does not treat the smallest trees as an available source of biomass fuel, instead setting a minimum diameter of 7 inches for trees to be cut: Approximately 65% of the standing trees on Massachusetts timberland are 1"-5" DBH; however, In spite of their large numbers, these sapling-size trees represent only 5% of the timber volume on a tonnage basis (PIA Statistics for 2008). It would , 12 ..t_ 'l be cost prohibitive to harvest trees In this size class based on our analysis. In order to be competitive in current markets, biomass producers would need to harvest trees with low stumpage value that are greater than 5' DBH. (p. 42) The model suggests that the minImum size threshold for whole-tree harvesting In Massachusetts Is In the range of 7.0-9.0 Inches DBH if the economic objective is to deliver chips to a bioenergy plant at a cost of about $30 (or less) per green ton.(p.41) It seems that pre-commercial thInnlngs and small trees should be excluded as part of the biomass resource In Massachusetts-as one logger In Maine told us anecdotally, "the fastest way to go broke In the biomass business is to harvest 2-to-6 Inch trees... These model results clearly demonstrate the critical importance of tree size and handling costs In the economics of whole-tree harvesting: whole-tree harvesting appears to be cost prohibitive for sapling-size trees. (p.41) The study concedes that some of the harvesting assumptions In the model could decrease the future economic value of the forest: However, new biomass marl(ets may cause the harvest oftt:ees that would eventually develop into valuable crop trees Ineft to grow. A straight, healthy 10' oak tree that would someday grow to be an 18" high-value veneer log might be removed too early In order to capture its much lower biomass value today. The misuse oflow thinnings to remove biomass could also remove the future sawtimber crop as well as the forest structure referred to earller.(p. 73) Biomass harvesting is otten portrayed as a way to create a market for small, low-value understory trees that are removed in thinning operations on commercial timber stands. However, removal of such trees does not cause the same growth and recovery In forest carbon as removing large trees does. Therefore, actual carbon recovery times are likely longer than represented by the harvesting scenarios that Manomet modeled, meaning that carbon debts persist longer. Harvested forest stands must not be recut pending carbon sequestration. The model additionally requires that once a stand has been cut, it must not be re-cut until it has achieved a large proportion of the amount of standing carbon in an unmanaged stand. However, the study Itself acknowledges this assumption Is lli(ely unwarranted: The scenarios we defined as "biomass" harvests (Biomass 40%, Biomass BA40, Biomass BA60) maintein Wgh growth rates for several decades. Because of this increased growth rate, even the heavier harvested stands can reach almost 90% of the volume that could have been achieved in an unmanaged scenario. So, over a long period of time, biomass harvests have an opportunity to recover a large portion of the carbon volume removed during the harvest However, this assumes no future harvests In the stand as well as an absence of any significant disturbance event. Both are unlikely. (p. 86) 13 f " Despite acknowledging that It is unlikely that having been cut for biomass, forests would be left uncut until a required level of carbon sequestration had been achieved, some of the central findings of the model depend on thls assumption. For instance, the table of cumulative carbon dividends presented In exhibit 6-15, which describes the amount by which carbon sequestration under the biomass scenario would exceed that under the fossil fuel scenario for the 2010 to 2100 period, Is based on the assumption that these acres would not be re-cut over this period. Even assuming that every one of the approximately 22,000 acres of private land cut for timber each year' were also available to provide biomass, the assumption that no acre could be recut over the 2010 to 2100 period would take a cumulative 1.98 million acres offorest out of production pending carbon resequestratlon. On a practical level, it seems unrealistic to assume that forests would be left uncut for even much shorter periods, if only because of the difficulties of enforcement Presuming that biomass fuel would be licensed In some way by the state, the permissibility of any source would depend on future actions - i.e., the ongoing management of land Into the future to ensure carbon sequestration - which seems much to ask for an already overburdened state government The study does attempt to grapple with the kinds of protections and enforcement that would be necessary to put in place at the state level, noting that many existing protections In forestry are voluntary and are probably not sufficient: Although In many cases BMPs are voluntary, water pollution control requirements are not, and therefore landowners are compelled by law to adopt water quality BMPs to avoid legal penalties. This may explain the relatively high rates reported for national compliance (86%) and in the Northeast (82%) (Edwards 2002). Biomass harvesting standards must address several management criteria such as protection and maintenance offorest structure for wildlife habitat, soil nutrient protection, and forest-stand productivity. These criteria, unlike those for water quality, typically have no legal foundation to compel compliance. (p. 69) The study concedes that the harvest scenarios upon which their results depend are probably not realistic for other reasons, as well. For instance, the Forest Vegetation Simulator does not have the flexibility to simulate the kinds of harvests that are actually conducted by landowners: The impact of different silvlcultural prescriptions has been more difficult to evaluate using the FVS model. The present set of scenarios uses a thin-from-above strategy linked_to residual stand carbon targets for all harvests. These types of harvests tend to open the canopy and promote more rapid regeneration and growth of residual trees. While this silvlcultural approach may provide a reasonable representation of how a landowner who harvests stands heavily in a BAU is likely to conduct a biomass harvest, It Is less likely that someone who cuts their land less heavIly would continue to remove canopy trees for biomass (unless they had an unusual number of canopy cull trees remaining after the timber quality trees are removed). More likely in this case Is that the landowners would harvest the BAU timber trees and then selectively remove poor quality and suppressed trees across all diameter classes down to about 8 inches. We hypothesized that this type of harvest would result In a slower recovery compared to thinning from above. Unfortunately, the complexity of this type of harvest was difficult to mimic with FVS. I The study states on p. 3) that an avemge of 22,000 acres of private land are harvested each year. 14 -Ie " Although project resources were not adequate to manually simulate this type of harvest for all FIA stands, we did conduct a sensitivity analysis for two stands with average volumes. For each of these stands we simulated a BAU harvest removing 20% of the stand carbon, followed by removal of residual trees across all diameter classes above 8 Inches down to basal areas similar to the target in Scenario 4. For these two stands, the results, shown In Exhibit 6-11, do Indicate a slowing of carbon recovery profiles relative to Scenario 4, although two stands are not enough to draw any conclusions about average impacts of this silvicultural prescription. What can be said Is that stands harvested In this manner win probably recover carbon more slowly than would be suggested by Scenario 4; how much more slowly on average we did not determine; It is clear however that on a stand-by-stand basis the magnitude of the slowdown can vary considerably. (p. 109) It Is unfortunate that despite acknowledging a number of uncertainties In the text, the Manomet study stlll presents results for the time required for biomass scenarios to switch from incurring carbon debts to providing carbon dividends as If there Is a high degree of confidence in the modeling. A high percentage aftops and limbs are used as fuel Because the tops and limbs of trees harvested for timber under the BAU scenario are assumed to stay in the forest and rot, producing carbon, the model assumes almost no carbon penalty for collecting this material and burning it. The model assumes that 65% of ail tops and limbs generated from timber harvesting can be used for fuel, supplying a relatively large "low carbon" source of biomass in the model. The study states the rationale as follows: ]n order to project biomass supplies that can be used to meet potential demand from new bioenergy plants, we have assumed that 65% of the tops and limbs from harvested trees can be recovered on acres where silvicuitural prescriptions Include whole-tree biomass harvests. This percentage was selected for two reasons: 1) It leaves behind more than enough material to conform to the ecological guidelines that have been spelled out in Chapter 4; 2) it recognizes that a significant share of tops and limbs remain uneconomic due to timber breakage, small pieces, and small branches. (p. 39) However, the eco]ogical guidelines set out in Chapter 4 are quite general, an issue treated in more detail below, and the reader is left with llttle confidence that firm ecological guidelines have been set, much less conformed to. It seems likely that selection of65% as an allowable level of harvest for tops and limbs, which are essentially treated as a low-carbon source of fuel by the model, is actually necessary to achieve the switch from biomass carbon debt to carbon dividend in a timely manner: The harvest and use oftops and limbs for biomass can have an Important InUuence on carbon recovery times and profiles: tops and limbs decay quickly Ineft in the forest and so their use comes with little carbon "cost" which tends to shorten carbon recovery times. Conversely, Iftops and limbs from a biomass harvest of cull ]5 f: -" trees were left In the woods to decay, this "unharvested" carbon would delay recovery times, effectively penalizing wood biomass relative to fossil fuels.(p. 109) When tops and limbs are left on-site, all three scenarios show net carbon losses between the initial period and the 10-year mark; in addition, carbon losses In year 10 are substantia] relative to the recovery levels In the scenarios in which tops and limbs are taken and used for bioenergy. (p. 110) In other words, it seems likely that the Manomet study would not have been able to portray biomass with even as favorable a carbon profile as it did, had a smaller percentage of tops and limbs been considered available as fueL Given the several permutations on modeling described in the study, It Is regrettable the study did not provide more detail about how leaving more tops and limbs in the forest would affect net carbon emissions. Is it feasible to collect tops and limbs? The study-in fact concludes that the practice is economical only in conjunction with whole-tree harvesting: As discussed in the wood supply analysis In Chapter 3, the harvest of tops and limbs would likely be economical only when harvested witb whole-tree systems. Biomass harvested in this manner can be used for any type of bioenergy technology. However, biomass can also be harvested with traditional methods or cut-to-length methods when these systems are preferred due to operating restrictions and/ or landowner preferences. These roundwood operations tend to be more costly, but yield higher-quality bole chips that are preferred by thermal, CUP and pellet facilities. Importantly, leaving tops and limbs behind as forest residues would increase carbon recovery times for bloenergy technologies that utilize the bole chips that are produced. (p. 109) The distinction between faclJities that use just chips from boles/ trunks and those that use whole- tree chips Is an important one. Many small thermal biomass facilities depend on "higher quality" wood produced from boles, wood that is cleaner-burning and more consistent in quality. Pellet manufacture also preferentially uses bole wood. Questions of how preferentially harvesting for bole wood wIlJ affect the total amount of trees cut for clean chips and pellet feedstock are just starting to be explored, but given the Manomet study's endorsement of the thermal and CHP facilities that prefer these higher quality wood sources, It is unfortunate that the study does not explore these questions In more detaiL Soil nutrient implications of taking tops and limbs for fuel The tops and limbs of a tree are the repository of a large share of its total nutrients, and this low- diameter material may actually represent a significant proportion of the biologically available pool of soil nutrients. How much such material should be left after logging not only to maintain these nutrient stocks, but also to protect solis against erosion and provide wildlife habitat, is the focus of many questions concerning the responsible use of woody biomass. Regarding the importance of leaving tops and limbs for forest ecological function, the Manomet study relies heavily on studies from the Forest Guild, specifically the Evans and Kelty "Ecology ofDeadwood" report, which Is Included In an appendix to the study. The Manomet study repeats the conclusions of Forest Guild studies that there Is little consensus regarding how much material should be left: 16 < , A review of scientific data suggests that when both sensitive sites (including low- nutrtent) and c1earcutting with whole-tree removal are avoided, then nutrtent capital can be protected (see also Hacker 2005). However, there Is no scientific consensus on this point because of the range of treatments and experimental sites (GrlgaI2000). It is important to emphasize that the bnpact on soil nutrients is site dependent Low-nutrtent sites are much more Ukely,to be damaged by Intensive biomass removal than sites with great nutrtent capital or more rapid nutrient inputs. A report on impacts of biomass harvesting from Massachusetts suggested that with partial removals (i.e., a combination of crown thinning and low thinning that removes all small trees for biomass and generates from 9 - 25 dry t/ac or 20 - 56 Mgfha) stocks of Ca, the nutrient of greatest concern, could be replenished In 71 years (Kelty etal. 2008). The Massachusetts study was based on previous research with similar results from Connecticut (Tritton at al.1987, Hornbeck et aI.1990). Leaching, particularly of Ca due to acidic precipitation, can reduce the nutrtents available to forests even without harvests (Pierce et aI.1993). However, the Ca.p mineral apatite may provide more sustainable supplies of Ca to forests growing in young soils formed in granitoid parent materials (Yanai at al. 2005). (p.141 of Manomet report). The Kelty study cited in the report concluded that removal of Just 9 - 25 dry tons of biomass per acre, an amount similar to that contemplated in the Manomet harvesting scenarios, could lead to soil nutrtent depletion that lasted seven decades. The Manomet study downplays this finding, Instead call1ng for more study of the issue and formulation of site-specific guidance for how much top and 11mb material can be removed: In Massachusetts it will be Important to IdentIfY the soils where there are concerns regarding current nutrient status as well as those soils that could be degraded with repeated biomass harvests. (p. 75) Despite acknowledging considerable uncertainty regarding the ecological sustainability of removing a large proportion of tops and limbs, the Manometstudy does not present any substantive data or nutrtent budgets to support the conclusion that 65% of tops and limbs can be removed at all sites. However, the carbon accounting component of the study relies on at least this much material being avallable, implicitly assuming that the maximum amount of tops and limbs can be removed in every case. Although the study does call for the creation of guidelInes on how much material should be retained in the forest, there is littie discussion of how such guidelines could be practically Implemented or the unusual amount of knowledge about a site's nutrient status and both past and future harvest plans that would be required of foresters when deciding how much material to leave: In areas that do not qualify as low-nutrtent sites, where 1/3 of the basal area is being removed on a 15- to 20-year cutting cycle, it is our professional judgment that retaining 1/4 to 1/3 of tops and limbs wlllllmlt the risk of nutrient depletion and other negative impacts in most forest and soil types. Additional retention of tops and limbs may be necessary when harvests remove more trees or harvests are more frequent. Simllarly where the nutrient capital is defldent or the nutrient status is unknown, increased retention of tops, branches, needles, and. leaves is recommended Conversely,lfharvests remove a lower percentage of 17 , basal area, entries are less frequent, or the site Is nutrient-rich, then fewer tops and limbs need to be retained on-site. (p. 48) Implementing such protections and ensuring sufficient material Is left: onslte to maintain soli productivity would also involve foresters willlngly forgoing a revenue stream from which they would otherwise proflt. With regard to use of tops and limbs from timber harvests as a "low carbon" biomass fuel source, the picture that emerges is that removal of at least 65% of this material is necessary for the Manomet model to reduce the apparent carbon emissions from biomass, since this materia] Is assumed to decompose anyway and thus to represent a negligible addition of carbon if it Is combusted. However. the study Is notable to say with confldence or produce a body of evidence to demonstrate that removal of this amount of tops and limbs wili not deplete soils or damage other forest functions, instead stating that much more detailed study Is needed. In sum, it appears that the goals of achieving low carbon dioxlde emissions from biomass fuel and maintaining soil nutrient status may be incompatibie in many cases. Biomass harvesting only occurs on land already being harvested for timber The study takes as its BAU assumption that land is harvested for timber. and that all residues are left: in the forest in this case, whereas a portion Is collected for fuei in the biomass scenario. The study does no modeling and draws no conclusions concerning carbon dynamics and regrowth in forests cut solely for biomass. Because the BAU scenario assumes that all sawlog residues are left: in the forest, this generates a large amount of relatively "low carbon" material to be harvested as fuel under the biomass scenario, because the FVS model treats this material as ifit decomposes relatively quickly. Tbe fact that the study does not examine carbon dynamics in stands cut soiely for biomass is a conslderab]e omission from the model; in fact, under such scenarios, carbon debts would be considerably.longer than the Manomet study conciudes. Soil carbon emissions are negligible The soli carbon pool is extremely large, and a slgniflcant fraction of it is easily decomposed and evolved as C02 when solis are disturbed by logging. However, the Manomet model completely disregards this source of emissions that are associated with biomass harvesting. Tbe study states Our FVS model simulations captured the carbon dynamics associated with the forest floor and belowground live and belowground dead root systems. Minerai soils were not included In our analyses, but appear generally notto be a long-term issue. A meta-ana]ysls published in 2001 by Johnson and Curtis found that forest harvesting. on average, had little or no effect on soli carbon and nitrogen. However, a more recent review (Nave et aI., 2010) found consistent losses of forest floor carbon in temperate forest, but minerai soils showed no significant, overall change In carbon storage due to harvest, and variation among minerai solis was best explained by soli taxonomy.(p. 83) ]8 , The preceding paragraph was sent to the lead author on the Nave study, to ask whether he agreed with this assessment of his paper's conclusions. From his answer,lt seems that the significance of the Nave paper bypassed the Manomet team. Here is Lucas Nave's answer In its entirety, as he requested (emphases added): "Thanks for asking about the meta-analysis paper we had in Forest Ecology and Management. My coauthors and I went over every sentence of that manuscript to be sure that we had the whole thing right, and now you've provided a great example of what happens when one statement Is considered without the context of the rest of the document. We did indeed use those exact words: 'variation among mineral soils was best explained by soil taxonomy.' However, we were not referring to the background level of variation in the amounts of carbon (C) stored in different forest soils, which is what is implied by the quote you sent (orig message below). What we were referring to with that statement was that, when you assess the degree to which forest minerai soils vary in their C storage responses to harvest, meta.analysis of the entire database shows that the most Important factor controlling that variation Is soli type (or taxonomic order). Hence, a more complete characterization of our study results would have included discussing the two soil taxonomic orders that consistently lost soil C after forest harvesting. and the fact that following certain post-harvest management prescriptions can be used to prevent those losses. In a biome-Ievel sense (ours includedall temperate forests), it Is true to say that mineral soli C storage doesn't generally change following a forest harvest. But that Ignores underlying complexity that matters when you're not just talking about general concepts, but rather a specific location with an actoal biomass haJvest/C accounting plan on the table. If our stndy Is nsed to suggest that it's not necessary to include the minerai soli (typically the largest temperate forest C pool) In a management plan that Includes C accounting; then It is being misused. The authors of that section of the Manomet report wonld benefit from closely re-reading our entire paper, which has more detailed, relevant information concerning the effects of forest harvesting on mineral soli C storage." It thus appears that omitting soli carbon losses trom the Manomet model means that actual biomass carbon debts are probably larger than the Manomet model concludes, and that time to parity with fossil fuel emissions Is longer. Firewood harvesting is not impacted Although indirect land use effects can be major sources of greenhouse gas emissions trom biomass harvest. and although the RFP for the Manometstudy requested that the study evaluate Indirect land use effects,> the study does not acknowledge that displacement of firewood harvest by biomass harvest could result in "leakage" offlrewood harvesting and more forestland being cut for firewood. 2 The RI'P for the sustaInabllity study published by the Department of Energy Resources states: "The analysis will consider the carbon stack emissions of combusting biomass, the carbon absorbed by the forest growth, and emissions associated with biomass harvesting. processing. handling. transportation, and address whether there are any Indlrect land use Impacts and the appropriate account for the displaced carbon emissions mm fossil foel otherwise used for energy." 19 . To the extent that tops and branches and other low-value wood cut during timber harvesting are currently being removed as Ilrewood, taking this material for biomass fuel could displace this Ilrewood harvesting and lead to an overall Increase in forest cutting. The study also does not consider the potential effects that use oflow-value wood for biomass fuel could have on Ilrewood costs. The study states that Ilrewood harvesting is a slgnillcant proportion of the wood removed from Massachusetts forests. The sources of this wood, which include cull trees, dead trees, tops and stumps of growing stock trees, overlap with the types of wood that are harvested for biomass fuel. The Timber Product Output reports provide one estimate of fuelwood production in Massachusetts; however, these data are derived from U.S. Census data rather than collected directly from U.S. Forest Service surveys (the source of other TPO data). TPO data Indicate that fuelwood production In Massachusetts In 2006 was 41.3 mUllon cubic feet (517.000 cords or 1.3 mllIion green tons), which would suggest that It would have accounted for about 83% of the timber harvest In Massachusetts (see Exhibit 3C-1.) According to this report, vIrtually all of the fuelwood comes from non-growing stock sources, which Includes cull trees (rough and rotten), dead trees, tops and stumps of growing stock trees, and non- forestland sources of trees such as yard trees. (p. 136) However, the study is mixed In its acknowledgement that biomass harvesting could displace Ilrewood harvesting. stating In some places that there are no leakage effects of increased biomass harvesting: More Importantly for our analyses however, Chapter 6 assumes that the increase harvest intensity for biomass energy wood doesn't change the disposition of materials that would be harvested absent biomass extraction. (p.82) Elsewhere, the study does seem to acknowledge that biomass harvesting could displace other uses of wood, if not Ilrewood speclllcally, at least under a scenario where biomass is worth more: This outlook assumes that biomass stumpage prices rise to $20 per green ton as a result ofhlgher demand from bloenergy plants. A substantial increase in landowner income brings more land into production. Forest biomass fuel becomes a primary timber product, much as pulpwood is today. and we assume that bloenergy plants can outhld their competitors for pulpwood and low-grade sawlogs and that this material Is harvested more Intensively as well. (p.49) The study seems to acknowledge the Impacts this CDuld have on Ilrewood harvesting on public lands. but does not discuss this Issue for private lands: The main vehicle for achieving the Increased biomass production on public lands will be the diversion ofw;ood from other end uses: at the projected price levels for biomass stumpage, bloenergy plants will be able to outbid their competitors for low-grade sawtimber, pulpwood, and residential fuelwood. (p.S3) However, public land is treated In the report as only a minImal potential source of biomass. Nowhere does the study examine the question of whether increased use oflow-value wood as 20 , . biomass fuel could increase firewood harvesting elsewhere, or whether there might be increases In price for the flrewood resource upon which many households depend. Wood pellet manufacture incurs no more carbon debt than green chips Although it Is well-establlshed that manufacture of wood pellets requires significant inputs of green wood In excess of the heating value actually embodied in the pellets produced, as well as signiflcant fossil fuel expenditures, the Manomet study treats wood pellets as embodying the same amount of carbon and energy as green wood chips. Our analyses also considered the carbon debt characteristics of wood pellet technology and CHP systems. In general, we find that carbon debts associated with burning peDets In thermal applications do not differ significantly from debts resulting from use of green wood chips. The differences relate primarily to location ofGHG emissions associated with water evaporation from green wood rather than the overall magnitude of the Iifecycle GHG emissions. (p. 106) However, the conclusion that carbon debts wm not differ between green chip- and pellet-fueled facilities wlll only be true If the two kinds of fuel require the same amount of tree harvesting, and the same amount of production inputs in terms offossil fuel power, to produce the same amount of thermal energy. Without delving into the complexities of where the energy to drive off moisture Is expended (at the pellet plant, where wood heat or fossil fuels are used to dry the pellet material; or in the case of green chips, In the actual combustion process), it is easy to see that this is not the case. The pellet industry prefers the use of bole or trunk wood for pellet production, and thus requires harvesting far more trees to acquire the same amount of wood than if whole tree chipping were used Thus, even assuming that the only difference between green chips arid pellets was the moisture difference in the product, the pellet industry would still require more trees to produce product The report cites a pellet industry-funded study' to support their conclusion that lifecycle emissions from pellets are approximately equivalent to those from green wood chips: Emissions for thermal pellet applications require the addition of emissions from plant operations and for transport and distribution of pellets from the plant to the flnal consumer. The limited analysis that we have seen for these operations (for example, Katers and Kaurich, 2006) suggest that the increased efficiencies in boller combustion achieved with pellets approximately offsets most of the Increased emissions from plant operations and additional transport of pellets from the plant to their flnal destination. (p.l04) In fact, the energy and fossil fuels expended during pellet manufacture and drying do appear to be considerable; where fossll fuels are used for drying, the study cited by the Manomet report shows that drying and plant operation require about 13% of the energy Inherent In the pellet product itself. To the extent that wood is used to provide process heat at pellet plants, this Is an additional wood Input In the pellet manufacturing process that has not been accounted for by the Manomet study. · Katers. j. and Kaurich,). 2007. Heating fuellife-cycle assessment Study prepared for the Pellet Fuels Institute, February, 2007. University ofWlsconsln, Green Bay. 54 pp. 21 .- ,. The Manomet study also underestimates the amount of trees cut for pellet production because it underestimates typical wood moisture content Their estimate that 1.575 tons of green wood Is required to produce one ton of pellets at 6% moisture (p. 28), depends In part on the assumption that the green wood chips used to make pellet fueis have a moisture content of 40%, an assumption that does not match the standard Industry estimate of 45% moisture content for green chips. Even the Katers and Kaurich study cited by the Manomet study Itself assumes that green wood has a moisture content considerably higher than 40%: Dry wood feedstock can generally be obtained from saw mill waste or other similar industries that utilize kiln dried wood This study assumed that a dry wood feedstock was available and drying the wood was not necessary, wbich would not be the case for wood fuel pellets manufactured from green wood waste. Green raw materials can oftan bave a moisture content in excess of 60%. Moisture content will depend on time of harvest. relative humidity, as well as type of wood harvested. For this study it was assumed that the wood had a harvested moisture content of 55%. (p. 8, Katers and Kaurlch). The industry standard is that at least two tons of green wood are required to generate one ton of pellets, a calculation that Is used in the commercially available wood products database from RISI, the global wood products information provider. The Manomet study appears to have significantly underestimated the actual amount of trees that would be required to provide pellet fuels. Wood from land-clearing incurs little carbon debt The Manomet study concludes that wood y biomass from non-forestry sources, such as from land- clearing, will not entail any greater greenhouse gas emissions than forestry wood However, no modeling is conducted to substantiate this conclusion. The report makes about 25 references to wood from land-clearing being a potential source of biomass fuel, but at no point are the carbon implications of this source offueJ critically examined. For Instance, the study states Our carbon analysis considers only biomass from natural forests. Tree care and landscaping sources, biomass from land clearing, and C&D materials have very different GHG profiles. Carbon from these Sjlurces may potentially enter the abnosphere more quickly and consequently carbon debts associated with burning these types of biomass could be paid offmore rapidly, yielding more Immediate dividends. Our results for biomass from natural forests likely understate the benefits of biomass energy development relative to fadlltles that would rely prlmarUy on these other wood feedstocks. (p. 113) This conclusion, which Is not substantiated with any analysis, appears to rest on the assumption thatall wood from land-clearing must decompose very quickly, as Is assumed for tops and limbs cut during BAU harvesting. This assumption is not warranted If the current fate of wood from land- clearing is notknown; It is also not warranted if indirect land-use effects are not taken Into account with regard to firewood harvesting. To the extent that wood from land-clearing is currently used for firewood, its use as biomass fuel could push timber harvest for firewood Into new areas and result In an increase In forest cutting overall. 22 . There Is also no consideration of the imposslbllity for wood on permanently cleared land to regrow, which is the chief way that net emissions are considered to be reduced through time in the conventional biomass harvesting model. In Appendix l-A, the study cltes the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) Model Rule for the types of "eligible biomass", which, ifused at a facility, generate emissions thatcan be deducted from the facility's total: Elfgible biomass includes suswlnably harvested woody and herbaceous fuel sources that are available on a renewable or recurring basis (excluding old-growtJl timber), including dedicated energy crops and trees, agricultural food and feed crop residues, aquatic plants, unadulterated wood and wood residues, animal wastes, other clean organic wastes not mixed with other solid wastes, biogQS, and other neat liquid biofuels derived from such fuel sources (quoted from the RGGl Model Rule, p. 122 of Manomet report). There is no discussion within the Manomet report of how wood from permanent land-clearing can be considered "available on a renewable or recurring basis' as required under RGGI. Given that biomass facillties currently proposed in Massachusetts are claiming they will use wood from land- clearing as fuel, this is a serious omission in the report. CONCLUSIONS As disruptive as the results of the Manomet study could ultimately prove to the biomass industry, the study's conclusions actually likely significantly under-represent the actual carbon impacts of biomass energy. The conclusions that small-scale thermal and eHP biomass applications can repay carbon debts and yield carbon dividends relative to fossil fuels by 2050, and that net emissions from utility-scale biomass power exceed even those from coal after forty years of regrowth, rely on a number of assumptions that minimize the apparent emissions from biomass. These include assuming that large trees, rather than understory cull trees, are used as biomass fuel; that stands cut for biomass are not re-harvested until carbon resequestration has been achieved (a process that requires these stands be locl<ed up from harvesting for decades); that only those lands already cut for timber are harvested for biomass; that a large proportion of "low-carbon" tops and limbs from timber harvesting are available for biomass fuel and that removal of this amount of material wlll not harm forest ecological function; that soil carbon emissions do not increase with harvesting; that indirect land use effects, particularly leakage of firewood harvesting. do not occur; and that pellet manufacturing does not incur a greater carbon debt than using green wood chips for fuel. ]n some cases, the report itself acknowledges that these assumptions are not likely Justified; in other cases, the report Is unfortunately silent on acknowledging the complexity of the carbon equation. Even malting these assumptions, the Manomet study concludes that net biomass emissions at utility-scale facilities still exceed those from coal after forty years, and are dramatically higher than emissions from natural gas. The lesson for New England, which generates much of its power from natural gas, is clear - relying on utility-scale biomass power to provide electricity to the grid causes a net increase In carbon emissions which undermines the emissions reductions goals of the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative. The best result that the Manomet model can produce for biomass performance relative to fossil fuels is that biomass carbon dividends in 2050 are on average 17% greater than from oil for small-scale thermal and eHP applications (averaging over the six modeled harvest scenarios) - a result that probably also underestimates actual greenhouse gas emissions from biomass power. In other words, this result depends on waiting 40 years to achieve a reduction in net greenhouse gas emissions that is at best Is an extremely optimistic 23 If J scenario, and likely within the range of model error. given the many assumptions upon which the modeling relies. Over this 40 year period. much may happen to forests. Permanent forest loss due to development is continuing apace at about 5,000 acres per year In Massachusetts, and climate change, Including potential effects of warming stress and Invasive insects. may increasingly threaten forest carbon sequestration. The results In the Manomet study should thus be viewed by policy-makers as an extreme best-case scenario unlikely to be achievable in reality, and any policy designed to promote small-scale thermal and CHP biomass should be further evaluated with modeling that makes more critical and realistic assumptions. Further promotion of utility-scale biomass should be discontinued Immediately as a threat to climate, and forests. 24 . , @ May 17, 2010 The Honorable Nancy Pelosi Speaker U.S. House of Representatives 235 Cannon House Office Building Washington, DC 20515-0508 Fax: (202)225-4188 The Honorable Harry Reid Majority leader United States Senate 522 Hart Senate Office Building Washington, DC 20510-2803 Fax: (202)224-7327 Dear Speaker Pelosi and Majority leader Senator Reid, We write to bring to your attention the Importance of accurately accounting for carbon dioxide emissions from bloenergy In any law or regulatlon designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from energy use. Proper accounting can enable bioenergy to contribute to greenhouse gas reductions; Improper accounting can lead to Increases In greenhouse gas emissions both domestically and Internationally. Replacement of fossil fuels with bioenergy does not directly stop carbon dioxide emissions from tailpipes or smokestacks. Although fossil fuel emissions are reduced or eliminated, the combustion of biomass replaces fossil emissions with Its own emissions (which may even be higher per unit of energy because of the lower energy to carbon ratio of biomass). Bioenergy can reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide If land and plants are managed to take up additional carbon dioxide beyond what they would absorb without bloenergy. Alternatively, bloenergy can use some vegetative residues that would otherwise decompose and release carbon to the atmosphere rapidly. Whether land and plants sequester additional carbon to offset emissions from burning the biomass depends on changes both in the rates of plant growth and In the carbon storage In plants and solis. For example, planting fast- growing energy crops on otherwise unproductive land leads to additional carbon absorption by plants that offsets emissions from their use for energy without displacing carbon storage In plants and soils. On the other hand, clearing or cutting forests for energy, either to burn trees directly in power plants or to replace forests with bloenergy crops, has the net effect of releasing otherwise sequestered carbon into the atmosphere, just like the extraction and burning of fossil fuels. That creates a carbon debt, may reduce ongolng carbon uptake by the forest, and as a result may Increase net greenhouse gas emissions for an extended time period and thereby undercut greenhouse gas reductions needed over the next several decades'. Many international treaties and domestic laws and bills account for bloenergy Incorrectly by treating all bloenergy as causing a 100",1, reduction In emissions regardless of the source of the biomass. They perpetuate this error by exempting carbon dioxide from bioenergy from national emissions limits or from domestic requirements to hold allowances for energy emissions. Most renewable energy standards for electric utilities have the same effect because bloenergy Is viewed as a renewable energy even when the biomass does not eilminate or even reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This general approach . J. Fats"'ne, J. HID, TUman D., Polasky 5., Hawthorne P (2OO81,land Clearing and the BIofueI Carbon Debt, _ 319:1235-1238 , ~ appears to be based on a misunderstanding of IPCCguldance2. Under some scenarios, this approach could eliminate most of the expected greenhouse gas reductions during the next several decades. U.S. laws will also influence world treatment of bioenergy. A number of studies In distinguished journals have estimated that giobally improper accounting of bioenergy could lead to large-scale clearing of the world's forests'. The lesson is that any legal measure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions must include a system to differentiate emissions from bioenergy based on the source of the biomass. The National Academy of Sciences has estimated significant potential energy production from the right sources of biomass'. Proper accounting will provide incentives for these sources of bioenergy. Sincerely, 2 T.D. Searthlnger, S.P. Hamburg,J.MeJiIfo, W. Chameldes, P.Havlik, D.M. Kammen.G.E. likens, R. N.lubowskJ, M. Obersteiner, M. Oppenheimer, G. P. Robertson, W.H. Schlesinger, G.D. TIlman (2009), fixlng a Crftical Climate Accounting Error, ScIence 326:527-528 3 E.g., J.M. Mef:lillo, J.M. Reilly. n.w. KlekIlghter, A.c. Gurgel, T.W. Cronin, S. Patsev, as. Felzer, X. Wang. CA Schlosser [2(09), Indirect Emissions from Biofuels: How Importantjl, Sdence 326:1397.1399; Marshall Wcse. Katherine Calvin, Allison Thomson, leon Darke, Benjamin Bond'Lamberty, Ronald Sands, StevenJ. Smith, Anthony lanelos,lames Edmonds (2009),lmplJcatlons of Umltlng CO2 ConcentratIons for Land Use and Energy,Sdent:a 324:1183-1186 It Natfonal Research Councll (2009), UquidTransportation Fuels from Coal and 8i0m0ss: TedmoIoglcal Status, Costs, and Environmental Impacts (National Academy of SQe~. Washington, D.C.) !" ~ WIUIam H. 5chIeslnger (Member, National Academy of ScIences) President (Past President, Ecoleglcal SocIety of America) Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies Mmbrook, New York MIchael ADen Director of the Center for Conservation Biology Chair of the Department of Plant Pathology and Microbiology Unlverslty of California, RIverside Riverside, California VIney P. AneJa Professor AIr Quality Professor EnvIronmental Technology Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric ScIences North Carolina state University Raleigh, North Caronna GaryW. Barrett Eugene P. Odum Chafr of Ecology Odum School of Ecology University of Georgia Athens, Georgia Mark Battle Associate Professor Physics & Astronomy Bowdoin Cotlege Brunswick, Maine Sharon BIIUngs Associate Professor Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Kansas Biological Survey lawrence, Kansas Mark A. Bradford Assistant Professor of Terrestrlal Ecosystem Ecology Yaie School of Forestry and Environmental Studies Yale University Donald Kennedy (Member, National Academy of ScIences) Bing Professor Environmental Science and Policy President, Emeritus Stanford University stanford, California New Haven, Connecticut PhIl CamHI Rusack Associate Professor of Environmental Studies Earth and oceanographic ScIence Director, Environmental Studies Bowdoin College Brunswick, Maine E1Dott Campben AssIstant Professor School of Engineering & Sierra Nevada Research Institute University of California, Merced Merced, California Joseph CraIne AssIstant Professor DMslon of Biology Kansas State University Manhattan, Kansas Stephen R. Carpenter (Member, U.s. National Academy of ScIences) Director and Professor (Past President, EcologIcal Society of America) Center for Umnology University of Wisconsin Madison, WIsconsin SalUe (Penny) Chisholm (Member, National Academy of ScIences) Martin Professor of Environmental Studies Massachusetts Institute ofTechnology Cambridge, Massachusetts eric ChMan (Shared 1985, Nobel Peace Prize) Dlrecl:or Center for Health and the Global Environment Harvard Medical School Cambridge, Massachusetts Norm Christensen (Past President, Ecological Society Amerlal) Professor of Ecology Nicholas School of the Environment Duke University Durham, North Carolina James S. Clark Hugo Blomquist Professor Nicholas School of the EnvlronmentfDept Biology Duke University Durham, North Carolina Jon CpIe Distinguished Senior ScIentist and G.E. Hutchinson Chair Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies Mlllbrook, New York. Gretchen C. DaUy (Member, National Academy of Sciences) Stanford University Stanford, California FrankP. Day Professor of Biological ScIences and Eminent Scholar Old Dominion University Norfolk, VIrginia Seth DeBolt AssIStant Professor Horticulture Department University of Kentucky Lexington, Kentucky , ~ Evan H. DeI.uda G. William Arends Professor of Integrative Biology & Director, School of Integrative Biology University of IHlnols Urbana, illinois SamlrDoshI Gund Institute for E<:ological Economics University of Vermont Burlington, Vermont Dr. Charles T. DrIsalIl (Member, National Academy of Engineering) University Professor Department of Civil and Environmental Englneerlng Syracuse University Syracuse, New York Paul R. EhrDch (Member, National Academy of ScIences) Bing Professor of Biology and President, Center for Conservatlon Biology Stanford University, Stanford, Callfornla James Eblerlnger Distinguished Professor of Biology Dlrecl:or, Global Change and Ecosystem Center University of Utah Salt Lake CIty, Utah erie c. Ellis Assodate Professor Department of Geography & environmental Systems University of Maryland, Baltlmore County Baltimore, Maryland Paul R. EpsteIn, M.D. Assodate Director Center for Health and the Global Environment Harvard Medical School Boston, Massachusetts ! ,t, Paul Falkowski (Member of the National Academy of Sciences) Board of Governors' Professor MarIne, Earth and Planetary ScIences Rutgers University New Brunswick, New Jersey Adrian fInzI AssocIate Professor Department of Biology Boston University Boston, Massachusetts Andrew J. Friedland The Richard and Jane Pearl Professor In Environmental Studies Chair, Environmental Studies Program Dartmouth College Hanover, New Hampshire James N. Galloway Department of environmental ScIences University of Virglnla CharlottesvUle, Virginia Frank S. GUUam Department of Biological Sciences Marshall University Huntington, West Virglnla Christine L Goodale Assistant Professor Department of Ecology & Evolutlonary BIology Cornell University Ithaca, New York Nancy 8. GrImm (Past PresIdent, ecological Society America) Professor. Department of Biology Arizona State University Phoenix, ArIzona Peter M. Groffman SenIor ScIentist Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies MlRbrook, New York Nk:k M. Haddad AssocIate Professor Department of BIology North Carolina State University RaleIgh, North Carolina Charles A.s. HaD College of environmental Science and Forestry State University of New York Syracuse New York John Harte Professor of Ecosystem Sciences Energy and Resources Group University of California Berkeley, CalifornIa Harold Hemond W. E. Leonhard Professor of CIvIl and Environmental Engineering Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge, Massachusetts Sarah Hobble AssocIate Professor Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior University of Minnesota Minneapolis, Minnesota KIrsten Hofmockel Department of Ecology, Evolutlon, & Organismal Biology Iowa State University Ames, Iowa R.A. Houghton Deputy Director and Senior Sclentist Woods Hole Research Center Falmouth, Massachusetts Benjamin HouJton AssIstant Professor, T errestrfal Biogeochemistry Department of Land, Air and Water Resources University of California at Davis Davis, California Robert W. Howarth David R. Atkinson Professor of Ecology and Environmental Biology Cornell University Ithaca, New York A. Hope Jahren Department of Geology & Geophysics University of Hawaii Honolulu, Hawaii Dan Janzen DiMaura Professor of Conservation Biology University of Pennsylvania Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Daniel Kammen Class of 1935 Distinguished Professor of Energy Professor in the Energy and Resources Group and in the Goldman School of Public Policy Director, Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory University of California, Berkeley Berkeley, California WIIDam s. Keeton Associate Professor Center for Natural Resources Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources University of Vermont BurDngton, Vermont Thomas H. Kunz Professor and Director Center for Ecology and Conservation Biology Department of Biology Boston University Boston, Massachusetts BevmlyLaw Professor, Global Change Forest Sclence Department of Forest Ecosystems & Society College of Forestry Oregon State University Corvallis, Oregon t. ~ John LIchter Assodate Professor Department of BIology Bowdoin College Brunswick, Maine Gene E. Ukens (Member, National Academy of ScIences) Distinguished Senior Sclentist (Past President, Ecological SocIety America) Founding President, Emeritus [Recipient, 2005, National Medal of Sclence) Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies Millbrook, New York Thomas loveJoy Heint Center Biodiversity Chair Heinz Center for Environment Washington, D.C. Daniel Markewltz Assodate Professor Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources University of Georgia Athens, Georgla Roz Naylor Professor, Environmental Earth Science; WIlliam Wrigley Senior Fellow, and Director, Program on Food Security and the - Environment Stanford University Stanford, California Jason Neff Assodate Professor Geological Sciences and environmental Studies University of Colorado at Boulder Boulder, Colorado Michael O'Hare Professor of Public Policy Goldman School of PubUc Policy University of California at Berkeley Berkeley, CaUfomla ., , Scott OUInger Associate Professor of Natural Resources Complex Systems Research Center Institute for the Study of Earth, Oalans and Space University of New Hampshire Durham, New Hampshire Michael Oppenheimer Albert G. Mflbank Professor of GeoscIences and International Affairs Woodrow WIlson School Princeton University Princeton, New Jersey Margaret A. Palmer Professor and Director Chesapeake BJologlcallab University of Maryland College Park, Maryland Todd Palmer Department of Biology UnIversltyof Florida Gainesville, Florida RIchard P. PhDUps Assistant Professor Department of Biology Indiana University Bloomington, Indiana StuartPlmm , Doris Duke Professor of Conservation Ecology Nicholas School of the Environment Duke University Durham, North Carolina jennifer S. Powers Assistant Professor Department of Ecology, Evolution & Behavior University of Minnesota Minneapolis, Minnesota JamesW. Ralch Professor Department of Ecology, Evolution & Organlsmal Btology Iowa State University Ames, Iowa Chantal D RaId Assistant Professor of the PractIce Department of Biology and Nicholas School of the Environment Duke University Durham, North Carolina WIDIam A. Ralners Professor of Botany and J.E. Warren Professor of Energy and Environment University of Wyoming laramie, Wyoming Heather Reynolds AssocIate Professor Department of Biology Indiana University Bloomington Indiana G. Philip Robel bOil University Distinguished Professor W.K. Kellogg Biologk:al Station and Department of Crop and Soli Sclences Michigan State University Hickory Comers, Michigan Steve Running Regents Professor and Director, Numerical Terradynamlc Simulation Group Department of Ecosystem Sciences University of Montana Missoula, Montana lee Schipper Project Scientist Global Metropolitan Studies UC Berkeley And Senior Research Engineer Precourt Energy Efficiency Center Stanford University .. I). Stephen H. Schneider (Member, National Academy of ScIences) Melvin and Joan lane Professor for Interdisciplinary Environmental Studies, Professor, Department of Biology and Senior Fellow, Woods Institute for the Environment Stanford University Stanford, California Dan Sperling Professor and Director Institute of TransportatlPll Studles University of California Davis, California H.H. Shugart W.W. Corcoran Professor Department of Environmental ScIences University of Virginia Charlottesville, Virginia jennifer L Tank Galla AssocIate Professor of Ecology Department of Biological ScIences University of Notre Dame Notre Dame, Indiana Pamela Templer Assistant Professor Boston University Boston, Massachusetts Kirk R. Smith (Member, National Academy of ScIences) Professor of Global EnvlrPllmental Health Director, Global Health and EnvIronment Progr&m School of Public Health University of California Berkeley, CalifornIa JohnTerborgh (Member, National Academy of ScIences) Nicholas School of the Environment Duke University Durham, North Carolina Robert Socolow Department of MechanIcal and Aerospace EngIneering Director of the CarbPll Mitigation Inltlatlve PrlncetPll University Princeton, New Jersey Thomas P. Tomich W.K. Kellogg Endowed Chair In Sustainable Food Systems Director, UC Davis Agricultural Sustainabillty Institute Director, UC SUstainable Agriculture Research and Education Program Professor of community Development, Environmental Science & Policy University of CalifornIa Davis, Caiifornia Stanley D. SmIth AssocIate Vice President for Research Professor of ute Sclences University of Nevada Las Vegas, Nevada John Sperry Professor Biology Oepartment University of Utah Salt lake CIty, Utah Alan R. Townsend Professor, Institute of ArctIc and Alpine Research and Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Director, Environmental StudIes Program University of COlorado Boulder, COlorado . Ross A. Virginia Myers Family Professor of Environmental Science Director, Institute of Arctic Studies Dartmouth College Hanover, New Hampshire Thomas R. Wentworth Alumni Distinguished Undergraduate Professor of Plant Biology North Carolina State University Raleigh, North Carolina Diana H. WaD (Past President, Ecological Society of America) University Distinguished Professor Director, School of Global Environmental Sustainabllity Colorado State University Fort Coliins, Colorado Donald R. Zak . Burton V. Barnes Collegiate Professor of Ecology University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Michigan Matthew Wallenstein Research Scientist Natural Resource Ecology laboratory Colorado State University Fort Collins, Colorado Cc: Carol Browner, White House Office of Energy and Climate Change Policy Lisa Jackson, Environmental Protection Agency Steven Chu, Ph.D, Departme'nt of Energy John Holdren, Ph.D, President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology complcment prior snldies tllllt highlight the importance of short- and medium.lived pol- lumats (14-17). The top 10 pollutant-gencrating uctivities contributing to net RF (positivc RF minus n"b>ntivc Rf) in year 20 arc shown in tile bot- tom chnrt. page 526), wltich mkes into account the emission of multiple pellutants from each source activity (18). The seven sources that appear only on thc left side (purplc bars) would be overlooked by mitigdtion strategies fOClL,ing exclusively on long-lived pollutants. The distinctly different sources of near- term and long-tenn RF lend themselves to the aforcmentionnd lWOi>ronged mitigation approach. TIlis dccoupling is convenient for policy design and implementation; whercns the imporrnnce of long-term climatc stnbi. lization is clear, the perceived urgency of ncar~tcml mitigation will evolve with our knowledge oflhe climate system. Addition- ally, optimal near-tcnn mitigation strategies will reflect decadal oscillations (19), seasonal and l"b~ona] variations (20. 21). and evolv- ing knowledge of aerosol-climate effects (22. 23) and methane-atmosphere intemctions (22). ..considcmtions unique to the near term. TItus, short. and medium-lived sources (black carbon, tropospheric ozonc, and mctbanc) must be l"b'lllaled sepamtely and dynamically. TIle long-term mitigation ti'eaty should focus exclusively on steady reduction of long-lived pollumnts. A separate treaty for short- and medium-lived sources should ine1nde .'ta11dards Ulat evolve based on peri- ndie recommcndations of an indcpendent hltcrnational scientific panel. TIte from.work of "best available control technology" (strict) and "lowest achievable emissions rate" (slrictcr) from the US. ClcaaAirAct(24)cau he used as a mudd. Such a two-pronged ins1itntional frame- work would reflect Ule c'Volving scientific understanding of ncar-term cliD1llte change, the scientific certainty around long-tenn cli- mute change, and the opportunity to sepa- mlely adjust UIC pace of near-tcnn and long. tcnn mitigation efforts. Referentes and N_ 1. D.A.rcheretal..AmW.Rev.Et11thPiDntt.5ri 37.117 (200'>). 2. Thee-foldlngtlme{requiredrodecreasetu31%1>forlgi- nalaltborne amounO is on the order of days tnweeks for sh.rt-lWed polIu_le.g.. b1ackanrl org;mk_ tropOSpheric o:one. and sulfur dio:dde). a decade for medium-lived (e.g., mrilane and.some hat<<arbons), anrlacetJtuTyfutlong-liYed fe.g., nilrOUS01ide. some baloc.atbons). eOl takesroughly a centuJy to reatb 3JOh, then decays I'llOl"e stowly over mH1eJlnia. 3. ('P'Al<Mu1len,).l'b"""'.&I,.C1imnleC_Sdence Compt!1)dium2fJ(J9(U.N.Enviror4nentProgfilmn~Nid1obi. _Prlnr,2OO9);_.org1<anpendlum2Oll91. 4. S. Solomonetal., Oimt'lteOmnge 2007: The Physico] Science Basis: (on!ributftm oj Werking Group I te the F<mnh Assessment Repqrl fJ/ the {PC( (Cambridge Unw. Press. New York, 2007). 5. s. Rahmstod e1 01., Science 316,709 (2007). 6. }. B. Smith etal.,Proc. NtJtl.At11d. Sri U.s.A 106. 4133 (2009). 1. A. Sokotovetol.,). C11m. ZZ: 5115 (2Q09). 8. t Stocker. Qwt. SeL Rev. 19. 301 (2000). 9. T.M.lentone1al.. Pr<<.Natt.Acad Sd. USA 105, 1786 (2008). 10. ).Ilal$en "'oJ.. OpenArmos. Sd1. ~. ~17 l20D8). 11. RFlsapropertyoftheclima:reatapoirdintime. Increases in Rf create pfanetaty en~illlbalanre, with more In<omlng snlnr radiation than outgoinll hllrarerl radlotlnnanrlawannlngellectnnlh>system. 12. 1. F. Stoder. A. Sdmtittnet, Nature 388. 862 (1997). 13. R. B. Alley et 01.. Science 299.2005 (2003). 14. J.Hanse11etal..PhItt'iS. Tram. R.5Dc. l.DndOllSet.A 365. 19~5l2l107). 15. P.I(. Quinnff m..AlmDS. Chf!fTJ. Phys. 8.1723 (2OOa). th. M.~.)n<nbsnn.JGeophys.R"'A/mOS.107."19 llOO2J. 17. F. <.Mnnre, M. c. Ma(Cra<kerl.In/l.J S/trIteglc(honge _.1. 42 (2009). 16. D.~, T. CBond. D. Streets, N. Ung~. Geophys. Res. Left. 34.lOS821 (2007). 19. It Trenberth etal..l:n(4), pp. 235-336. 20. D.-Koch, T. Bond. O.Streets. N.UngeJ. G. vanderWerf.}. 6ecphys. Res. 112. 002~05 (2007). 21. A. Stnbl, J GeopIJrs. Res. 111, 0113116 (21)06). 22. P. Fnrster '" d. m (4). pp. 129-234. 23. V. Ramanathan. G. Carmk:bael Ntl1. Geosd. 1. 221 llOOB). 24. V.s. Clean Air Act. mw.epa.gO'ltlaar/c.aal. CLIMATE CHANGE ...-r-'" " (t~) POLlCYFORtJM 2S. Tbf! sam~ allillysis applied to the lP<es SRE5 marker scenarios tAl. Al. B1. and 82) (26) producesmults that taU largely within the bDunds of these tml scenario$ (fi!I. 511. 26. N. Nakit~t. R. Swart, Eds.. Special Report on Emis- ~..._ (JP((,Cnm_ UnIv. """ Cam- bridge, 2000). 27. DatafayearZOOORfambasedon(14).emissfonsilte from (28). decay I'attS am based on tbe lifetimes on p. 212 in (22) and hlstorlcat C01 decay is cmwlated a(Cording to p. 824 In (29). GtOl'lth rates. are from f28}am1 (JO).Zero groMb of emissions assumed for Be. OC, SOl' and f'talo. carbons Eac!lyear'sRffor sftoJHivai pollutants (ar. ac, 0,. SO}isdueonlyto emiss10nsln that year; thus. theRf does nota<<UtlWlatefromQJ'leyear to tbellelt. Theron- tributions of bla<k carbon and 020J'te8re-(onsavatlve. as tha'l do net reflect ment uear..([oub!eestimates of black carbon's Rf (23) Illfrecen! estimates of ozone's Indlred tandslnkeffect (JIJ. 28. ElJGAR3.~(_p.nII_lrendclll. 29. 6. Meehl et at. in (4), pp. 747-845. 30. QimateAnalysls Indicaton Tool v6.0 (bttp:flcaiUni.org). 3L S. Sitcb. P. M. Cot. w. J. Collins. C. Huntingford. Nctuft 448, 791 (loo]). 32. t C. Bond e1 oJ., Global ~wn. Cyr/e$ Z1. 682018 (2007). 33. n1e <luthl)t tbanksJ. Harte for prarlding encouragement anrlaitlq",. Supporting ant.,. Material vmt!Lscle-ncemag.crylcgi/contentlfuUl326159521526lDC1 10.1126&ien<e.1177042 Fixing a Critical Climate Accounting Error TOJIotby D. Searchloge~1' SI8Vll1l P. Humburg," Jony Melillo.' William Chamoides,' P8Ir HD1Ilik.' DODiol M. Kammon.' G008 E. l.ikoll8,' Robon N.l..ubowskl.' Miclmel Oboraleioor,' Mioboel Opptloheimor,' G. PhIlip Robmtson.' William H. SeIllesiagerl G. DavId liimoo' Rules for applying the KyollJ Protocol and national cap.and.trade laws contain a major. but flxable. carbon accounting flaw In assessing bioenergy. not count changes in emissions from land use when biomass for energy is harvesled or grown. TIt;s nccounUng erroncously trcalB all biocncrgy as carbon neutral regardless ofUle source ofUle biomass, which may cause large differences in net emissions. For example, the clearing of long-cstablished forests to burn wood or to grow energy crops is counted as a 100"10 reduction in energy emissions despite causing large releases of carbon. Sevcral recent studies cstimate that ulis error, applied globally, would create strong incentives to clear land as carbon caps tighten. One study (2) estimated thaI a global CO, targct of 450 ppm undcrthis accounting would cause biocne'b'Y crops to expand to displacc virtually aU the IVorlds nalural for. ests and savannabs by 2065. releasing up to 37 gigalOns (Ot) of CO, per year (comp&- www.sciencemag.org SCIENCE VOl.326 23 OCTOBER 2009 l'ublkhedl!YMAS 527 The accounting now used for assessing compliance will, carbou limits in thc Kyoto Protocol ond in climate legisla- tion contuins a fdt'.rcuching bul fixable flaw tbat will severely undcnninc greenhonse gas reduelion goals (1). It docs not count CO, cmilled from tailpipes and SI1lokcstncks wllCO hioencrgy is being used. but it also docs lPrlttCeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA. 1Environ. mental Defense Fund, Boston. MA 02108. and Washing-- ton, 0( 20009, USA. )Marine BfologitallabotatoJy, Woods Hole. 1M 02543. USA. .Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA. ~tnternationat Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg 2361. Austria. 6UoiveJSily of Califor' nla.t Berkelay. Berkelay. CA 9472O.lJSA. 'Ca/Y Institute nf Ecosystem Studies. Millbrook. NY 12545. USA. $Michig.m Stare University, Hkkory Comers. AU 49060, USA. 9Univer~ sily .llllmn-.. St PnuI./IIN S5108. USA. *Authors for correspondence. E.maU: shamburg@edf.org (S.P.H.); l1eard1i@prln<eIl1n.edu(tO.S,). I pdLlCYFORUM rable.to toilll humnn CO, emissiOilS today). AnOlher wily predict$lhal. based. wlely OIl economic cOl\SidernlloilS, hioencJl!y .could displace 59% of the world's llBIurallbresl .cover lUld rei..... an additlonal 9 Gt of CO, per yea( to achieve a 5O"!.t .eUl~ In green- house ~ by 2050(3). Thercason: Whlm bllJl;acrgy frolllBnY biomass is counted lIS catb<ln neutnd. tconomics favor large-scale land c:onvetSlbD for bioene'W tegIlI'dIcss of thc aCl\l8I net emis$jbDs (4). The potential of biocnergy to reduce gn:enhouse gasemissionsinherenily depends enlbesourreofthebioJllllSl<and ilSlIellimd- liseelfects. Replacing fussil/iJe1s with bi<)" ene.tioes not by itself rednee carbon emissions, because dlOCO, rel....d by tail- pipes lUld smoke:llaCk5 is roughly the SlU1lIl pet unit ofenelj;yregatdJcssQflhe souree (1, 5), Emissions. from pti;\dJleinll andlor refiniag bio/iJelsalsn typlcallyClleeed those fOr petroleum (J, 6). Bjocnergy therefore reduces gnlIl1\house emissions only iflbe growth nnd harvesting of the biom!lSS for ""ergy CllptureS carbon abqye and beyond Whal would be sequestcrc<l anyway and Ihereby offsets emissions ftom CI1CIJlY use. This additional carboa mnyresuJt from landntilllBgl1menl changes thlll increase p1anlllptake or from the use ofbiOJnass tbat WOuld olherwise decompose rapidly. Assessillllsucb carbon gains requires the SlIme aeeolDlllng principles used 10 assign credits for olbt:r laIld-based carbon ofli<cls. Foro:<mnple, If unproductive land Stlp- ports fast-growing grasses for bfocncrgy, or if forestry improvemeDlS increase Iree growlh rale&, tho additional carboa absorbed offill,ts emissions wben burned for energy. EnelJlY use of manure or crop Ilnd limber residues may also capture "addllional" car- bon. Ho\V~er, harvesting wslll!1! foroslS for clectricity adds net carbon to the air. ThaI remains lrlIC cvetf if limited barves1 mles lcavetheoarbon stoelu<ofrcgrowtng foresls uneba1'Jge~l1eeallSc IbO$ClltO<:ks lVOuld olherwlse IirorelIse lUld wntrlbute to the Il:lTeSlrial carbon sink (/). If biocnelJlY crops displace forest..... gJ;lISSlund. dlCc:ar- bon rolCllscd ftom soils atId vegetation. plus lOSt future sequestraliou,gencrnlCS carbon debl. wbieh counts againsl the earboo the crops absorb (7, 8~ The InlergoVernmelllal Punel on Climate Change (IPcq h;Js long realized tbat. bie- C1IC'W$ greenhouse effeel;l vary by sonree of biomass Ilnd land......effCets. It also roc.. lI!!ffizes that when foreat& or olhcr planis are harvested for bilJl;aergy.lbe n;suItingCllrboa rolc:ase mast be eouDled either lIS land-use emissions or energy emIssions bnt nol bolh. To avoid doubl(M:nuntlng. the wec assigns the CO, to the Iand-USCJll;COunls nod exempts bioenergy emissiollS frgtD llOl'IJlY m:conots (5). Yet il warns. beoause"fossil!ltelsubstllo- tlon isalready'l'eWIIt'dl:d- by tbis exemptlon. "to avoid ~tliJ1g . .. any changes In biomass stoeks .m Innd$. ... resUlting from the prod~on ofbiofnels would need to be lneiudCd iathe uccounts"(9). This symmetrical appt'Olll:b '\Wrks fur the reporllngunder Ibe UIritedNutlous Framework Convemion on Climate Change (UNFCCC) because vlrtnnlly all conolries report emlssious ftom both land Ilnd euclJlY ose. For example. if fOrests arc elCllrcd In So~1 Asia 10 produte palmbiodlcsel burned lnl!IlI'GJlC, fll1nlJ'O ~ exclude Ihe lailpipe emissions lISAsln ll:j)ort& tJlC large oet carbon release as Inrid-use emissions. HOWCVCf, exemptlng emissinns liortt bin- .eaergyuscis improper for greenhouse gas reg- ulatlonS ifland-use emissions are not included. The Kyolo Prolocol caps the energy emis- sions of deyeJopc<l <>>untries. Butlbeproto- eol applies IlOlImIts to land use or any other emissions liortt develnpiog countries, lUld spe- clnI erodltlog ru1es for "forest l11lUlUIlement" allow developedeounlriellto ~ out dIcit own land-use emissions as well (1, If)~ 111DS, malntaintng the excmptlon furCO,emi1lcd by mocuC'W use under the prolocol (I /)wroll!llY _ blocUClJlY liortt aU biomass sourecsns earbPl> D.eutral. even if the source involves eJ~furests for electricity in Europe or eonvertbtgthem to blodiesel crops in Asia . Tb1stU:cotmtlng error halloarricd overinto lbe European. Unions cap-and-trade law nod the climate billpnssed by tllC U.S. House of RepreSentatives (I, 11. /j). Both regulate emissions from energy but nol lnod use Ilnd lhen errollCOllsly ~ CO, emilled from blllCJlClJlY use. ~nlbeoJy;the Ii;;c"unling sys- tem would work if caps ~ aU land-use emissions nod sinks. However, this approach is botb ICClmically nod politically cballengillS as it is cx)remely hard 10moaaure a1llnrid-use emis$jbDs Ilr 10. distingoi$.Junnan nod nutu- ml causes ofmany emissions (e.g., fires). The stmighlforwanl solmion is 10 fix the =ntlnll ofbioenergy. Tbllt ~ tracing the aetuall1llws ef carboo aad CO!IIlling emis- sions liortt lailpipes mul6Ulokestnclu< whether from fossil ~ or biucnergy. lnstead of an assumption lbel all biomass ,,1lSels cl\CIJlY emissions.l>iomassshouldrecclve ctedit In dIe cxtenI that its 0liC resultsmaddllional carbon from enhanced plnril growth or frolll the use of lCSidues or mowastes. Under anyerodltlllS s}'Slctl1, credits rtllIill retlect nel e!1lIJlb'US m eor- bon sloek." emissions ofnou.cO, greenhouse gases. and leakage emissions reSulling liortt cballgcsin land...... activitles to replace crops ortimberdivertcd to blocae'W (/). Sepanllely.Europe Ilnd lbe United Slates bave established ICgnI reqtriremeuts for min- imum use of biofuels, wbieb assess green- bouse gas conscqueaecs bnscdorilifkytle linalyses thaI reflecl some Iand-us'l eJ1'ects (1, 14). Suebassessments vary wIdely in comJlnlhenslveness. but nouc considers bin- fuels free from Inrid-boscd emissions. Yet Ibe carbon cap necolDlling ignores Iand.use emissiollll a1toged1Cr. erentillS';ts own I;n'ge, pc~rse incentives. Bioenergy CllO provide much energy and help 0lCC1 greenhOUse caps, but eorrecl aecnuntlog I1\IISt provide lhe right tnCC1ttlvcs. fteflmlnces and Notes l.~roleTeOO!SWPJ>lllth1gt\ll:_.lthl' FcIlqf"""'....""loundhlt\ll:WPJ>lllth1g._ -. 2. A!.Wbe.,...;_~~..lmClOO9l. 3. ).M.MelltlGe1ol.,lJn_ii1Ientfd~€~ ~.f.GIoIiDIBIOfI1d"'O/J1amlMJTlolotPJogram 1f<J>olH.r1...llal""'__o!T"~. CambrIdge...... 2DlWl. .. ---.,._tneqq-.ologyi'tJ>Pet- _1<>Soppo1toflheG8P1an.fktJan:_ end Stmt1gJes 'o-2D5f) (Ofgardl:almn for EcOt;omic Coopeta~ tfonamlDm>l_roECllIllEA, _ 2008~ 5. lP(c.2fJlJ/JJP<<liuiddinelfoil!D_~ _or<P/lledbyt\ll:__Gas I_P~It_"'I"GlobaI_ ialSItal<9'" UGES), rol,o.I_. =1. 6.~_'I\,A!.Otto,hllilofrW:_o/C",. _"'ond__oithC1io1l1Jf09l1Jndu.e: Pr<<edIngs oftheSdlmlJi<C_",,_ot d"'E~.R.W.nowallh."""s.IlrIo1g"',!lh. (ComeII um.. """" Irhac..liY.2Oli91,~ 111-109. 7. t~"al.._319;123812e08). a ).FargIone.).IIl1\O.TIImao.5.PoIasly.P._. Sdmxe 319. 12)512003). 9.11.l\>1sonetol.fclo..Jtmdu".ImttI4JstC1it1JtD'. tllldf_lIPCC.CilmbridgeUil...""""Cilmbridge. _. 10. UNfCCC._.I1he~."'rhiI_", Itt__AtI/oIJ_/J11heQ:l/'Il'CCCI Cl'J2OOQlf.I3IArld.1.UIlfCcc._.2Oli2l._ dl.UD,paJtZ. 11. UNf(Cc. Updated UNFCCC te()Ontng guIdtIl1Ies on onnuIlI/l1.m7tod<sfollowing/ncotp<<o/ltm.f1heptaV/- _ot_14/CRl1!FCCCJSubsI1IlalJllo<Iy fat. S<lenl!llt...rl<<hnologlul_(SB5TAl/2OO619. -,2006].f.21. 12. ~C__20/}3181IECoftbe _'",UomeotandofIbeCoundJof13/ktobet MJ.OIlIrlIllJllIlInalolthe_~niooL215. 25.1D.ZOO3. 13. n.._a..nens.,.andSetorllyll<tol2llll'l.. tUl.Z454.U1tl1Cong.,1slSe<1.t>s""""byU.s. .....oI~JW'2OO\'l. 14. tD.5earthblgtr~tnlt/cftltls;fAm""........tatt'onse- quences o11dlntftdtfltJm withChonglng 1.Jmd Ihe: Pt<<edlngsC/IMSdeD/I}icC_""_.f 1heE_R.\'i._Iltand 5. BrIng.... Ed. (Comen OnlY."'"" 1Ilia...1lY.1OIl9),pp.~S2. 15. Tlto""""""P'..._forthewpportoftheGmt;m __oItheUnl1e<lSl;ltes. SUpportblg Online_I .....~'"'DI'llll<DlIl..tlrulll326/5951J5l71l1C1 lO.1126JsdentEl'.t118797 528 23 OCTOBER 2009 VOL 326 SCIENCE www.sciencemag.org l'ubfls/tettbyMAS ... ,.. g d ... j <:: o e> o m '" ~ <.l t: OJ 'iJj ~ E ,g 'Iii 8 I c.Omplement prior ,1udics that highlight tite importance of short- and mediulll-Iived pol- lutants (/4- 1 7). TIle top I 0 pollutant-generating activhics contributing to net RF (positive RF minus negative RF) in year 20 are shown in the bot- tom ebart, page 526), which takes intoaccouot lile cmis>ioo of multiple pollutants from cach source nctivity (/8). TIle seven sources that appear only nn the left side (purple bars) wnuW he overlooked by mitigation strategies focusing exclusively on long-lived pollutants. TIle distinetly different sourees of near- term and long-term RF lend litemselves to the aforementioned two-pronged mitigation approach. This dccnupling is convenient for . policy design and implementation; whcrcns the importance nf long-term climate stnbi- IilOtion is elenr, the perceived urgency of ncar-ternl mitigation will evolve with our knowledge of lite climate S}'lllem. Addition- ally, opthnal ncar-tenn mitigation strategies will reflect dccadal oscillatiOllS (/9), seasonal and regional variations (20, 21), and evolv- ing knowledge of acrosol-elimate effi:cts (22, 23) and methane-atmosphere interactions (22)---considerations unique to dIe near term. TIms, shnrt- and medinm-Iived sources (black carbon, tropospheric ozone, and methane) must be fC!,'Ulated scpamtely and dynamically. The long-tcnn mitib>ation treaty should focus exclusively on stcady redaction of long-lived pollutants. A scparate treaty for short- and medium-lived sources should iuelnde standards that evolve based on peri- odic recommendations of an independent international scientific panel. TIle framework of"bcst available control technology" (strict) and Ulowest achievable emissions ratc~ (stricter) fromtbe U.S. Clcan Air Act (24) can be used us a model. Such a two-pronged institutional flume- work lvould rcflccttbe evolving scientific tmdcrstanding of ncar-term climate change, the scientific certainty around long-term cli- mate change, and tbe opportunity to sepa- rately a<!iuS! lire pace of ucar-term and long- tcnn mitigation efforts. References and Notes 1.0. Arther et aJ..Annv. Rev. Earth Pranet. Sd. 37. 111 (2009). Z. nll!e-foltllng time (requited to d<<re-ase 10 31% of orlgf. nal airhome amount) Is on the on:fer of days to weeks for .hotHlved~C..g._andurgankcarbon. tropospheric ozone. and sulfur tltoxidel, a d<<a:de for medlum-IWed (e.g.. methane and some balocarbonsJ, - and a ,century for loog'IWed (e.g.. nttrousoxlde. some balocatbons). COl takes roughly a century to readl37~~> then decays nwre s!owty over miflennia. 3. UMclJuIlen.~_.""-C~C/JonyeSdeoa> CompenrJivm2009lUJI.EnWonmen1Programme, _. EarfhPrlnt. 2009); mwwnep.otgkanpendium2009/. 4. S. SoIonwnerot., a/mote Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis: (ontribUlioll oj Working Group 1 to tM Fourth Assessment Re;xnt 01 tile IPCC (Cambridge Unlv. Press, ~wYOtk. 2.001). 5. s. Rahmstorf et aI., Sdena 316. 709 (2Ol}7). 6. ~B.Smlthetol.,P1oc.Ncd.AtorLSciU.5.A.106.4m (2009). 7. A. 5okoIOYctot..J.Gim.22. S175(2009). 8. 1. Stttcker. Quol. Sd. /let. 19, 301 (200()). 9. tM.lerrtofJ elat., PIO(.Hatl.Atad. Sd. USA 105, 1766\20081. 10. J. Hansen et 0/., OpcmAlmos. ScL.J; 2. 217 (2008). 11. RFlsapropertyofthedlmateatapoinlintim:e. tncreasesin RFueatelrlaretaryenergyimbatan<e, with more Incoming solar radlativn Utan outgoing infrared tarllation and a \\'ill'11ling effect on the SfStem. 12. t F. 5todtet,A.SchmIttner,Ntrture 388,862 (1997). 13. R. a Alley erol..Sdtnce299, 2005(2003). 14. ]. Hansen et ol.,PMos. Trans. R. Soc.l.Dntkm Set.A 365, 1925 120071. 15. P. K. Quinnetal...Nmos. Cbtm. PltyS. 8,1723 (2008). 16. Atl.)aa>bsot>.tGeophys.Res.At_l07.4410 (20021. 17. F.C.Moore;At(.^","acken.IRtLtSlrotegkC/Jonye Mgmr.1, 4212009). 18. D. Koch. T. C. Bonrl. D. Stree-Is, til.Umler. Grophys. Res. lett. 34. lOS821 (2007). 19. L Trenl>erthetal., in (4), pp. .235-336. 20. D. Koch, T, Bond, D.Stree3, N. tJnger.G.vanderWerf,J. Geophys. Res. 112. 00"05 (2007). '1. A. S1<>hl.J. GeDphys. Res. 111. 011306 (2006). 22. Po FooteJetot..in (4).pp.129-234. 23. Y. Ramanathan. G. Carmichael. NaL Geosd. 1. 221 \2008). 24. U.s.OeanAit"Act.\Wm.epa.flavloa:rI<aa/. CLIMATE CHANGE POUCYFORUM 25. TIle same analysis applied to fhe lPeC'S s.RES market scenarlos(A1.A2.S1. anti Bl) (16) prodoces results that faIl largely within the bounds of these two S(~narWs (f19_ S11. 26. N.Naki!enovIt,R.Smrt.Eds..SpedalRi!portOflfmfs. stems Scenarios (JPCc. Camblidga Univ. Press. earn- brl""~'OOlJ). 27. Datafotyear2COORFarebasedon0:4l.emhslonsare from f28).decaytalesare baserl01'1 theUfetbnesonp. 212 in (22) and hislotl:cal COl decay is calculated acC01dIng to p. 824 in (29). CifO'i'lth rates are !rem (28) and (30). Zero gromh of emissions assumed for BC. oc. SO,.and hah:J. carbons Eath yeat'S Rf for short.UYed pnUutants(BC. DC. OvSO,>lsdue~tnemissionsinthatyear;thus,theRf does no! iKCUllltdate from me year to the next. The con- mbutioos at black carbon and 010ne are conservat!w. as tbeydonutrefIedrecentnear--cloubleestimatesofblad: carOOn'sRF(23) norrerentes1imatesofOzone'slndirert Iandslnl.ellOO(31). 28. EDGAR 3.2 l__.nli....rlntodelll. 29. G. Meehl et at. in (4). pp. 747-845. 3D. Oimate Analysis Indkators Tool V6.(){http://<aitmJ.org). 31. S. SI.h. P. M. Cox, W. ~ Colllm. C. HllI1lln1iford, Not"'" 448. 791 (2007). 32. T. C. Bond et aJ.. GltJbr;1 Biogeot1mn. Cyrles 21. 682018 (2007). 33. lhoauthorthanks).lIamfwpruvldlngem_ and oitill... SUpportlng Online Materiat Wlm.St~Ilmna9.otWcgII(ontent/ltlIlt3261S952/S261OC1 1O.1126/sdeme.1l77042 Fixing a Critical Climate Accounting Error TImothy D. SaarclJintJa~,. SteVllO P.1Iamburg,'" Jeny Melillo.' William Chameldns,' Petr Havlik,' Denlel M. Kammeo,' Geoe E. Ukeos.' RobeD N. Lohowskl,' Micbael Oberntelner,' Micbnel Oppel1belmer,' G. Philip. Rol1ettsoo,' Williem H. Scblesinger.' G. Dovid lillllllll' Rules for applying the Kyoto Protocol and national cap-and-trade laws contain a major, but fixable, carbon accounting flaw in assessing bloenergy. The accounting now used for assessing compliance with curben limits in tlte Kyoto Protocol and in elimatc legisla- tion contains a fnr..rcaching but fixable flaw that witJ severely undermine greenhouse gas reduction goals (1). It docs not count CO. emitted from tailpipes and smokcsllleks when biocncrgy is being used, but it also docs lPr1oceton UnM!rsiI)', Princeton, NJ 08544, USA. lEnvlron- mental Defense Fund, Boston, MA 02108, and Washing- ton, DC 20009. USA. 'Marin<! Blologicallabool1<>ry. Woods Hole, MA 02543. USA.. 4Duke University, Durham, NC 27700, USA. ~lntematif:lnallnstitute for Applied Systems Analysis, laxenbuI!I2361, Austria. 'Universlly 01 CallIor- nia at Berkeley. Berkeley. CA 94720. USA. 'carylosbtuteol Ecosystem StudfM. MfUbrook, NY 12545, USA. aMfchfgan 5IDle Universlty, lIitkory Comers. Ml49060, USA. 'Univer- sityo! M_. 5l Paul, MIl S5108. USA. -Autlwrs fm (orrespondence. E-mail: shamburg@e:df.org (s.P.HJ; tsearthi@plinceton.eduIT.D.sJ. not count changes in emissions from land use when biomass for enCfb'Y is harvested or grown.TIlis accountiug erroneously treats all biocnergy us carbon neutral regardless of the so...ce of the biolllllSS, which may cause large differences in net emissions. Forex.mnplc. the c1cming oflong-eslllblished forests to burn wood or to b'l'OW energy crops is counted as a 100'4> reduction in energy emissions despite causiog large releases of carbon. Seveml receot st1ldics estimate that this error, applied globally, wnuld create strong incentives to clear land as carbon caps tighten. One study (2) estimated that a global CO, target of 450 ppm under this aecOlmting would cause biocncrgy crops to expand to displace virtually all the wnrld's natural for- ests end savannahs by 2065, releasing up to 37 gigatons (Gt) of CO, per ycar {eompa- www.sciencemag.org SCIENCE V01.326 23 OCTOBER 2009 PublishOObyAAAS 527 I POUCYFORUM rablc to totalltumanCO. emissl"",, tollay). AotlIher sttidy predicts thaI, based solely on economic eonsidllrntioo!l. b1OO1\Crgy could displace 59"4 of the world's I\lllIIrnI forest cover and rei_an llddltional 9 {it "fCO, per year to achieve a 50%wcut" ingrecn- 1l\lWiC ~ by ZllSO (3). The reason: Whco Dioomm!Y from any biomass is counted as emboli ucutml,ecouomlcs favor lallie-scale 11lJld conversion fur l>ioen<>rgy reg\lrdJcss of tlte actUal act cmisllions (4), The potential ef biocnergy to redllCe grecnhow;c gascmissions inlterentiy depends oolite SOlIl'ce of the biomassand its net Iand- use effilc1S. Replacing fussil fuels with bie- energy d_not by itself redw;<: earb'm cmissloD!l. because lite CO, released by tail- pipes andsfuokeslacks is ioIIgbly the same per unit of energy regardless ofthe $(Jllree (T, 51. Emissions from producing aoel/or refining biowels also typically exceed those for jleIloIcum (I, 6). Biocaergy therefure reduces greenhouse emissions only If tbe growtb $d barvesting of the biomass fur energy captures carh9n above and bcypnd whal would be sequestered anywaY and t1u.'reby offsCls emissions from energy use. This adliitioncl carbon may result from land managementehnnges tbBI increase plant uptake or from the use of biomass that would otherwise decompose rapidly, Ass_mg such carbon galos reqlrircsthe same accounting principJcs used to assign credits fur other land-bascII cnrbonotlScts For cxnmple, if unproductive land sup- ports tiJst-growlng grasses for blOCDClllY, or if foJi:Stry Impl'OvemenlSincl'case tree growth rates. the additional carbBnabsorbcd offsets emissions wben burned for coCll!Y. EDergy ll8C of manure or c:ropand titilber resldiu:s II\lIY also capture "additi"nal" car- bQn. How..'VCf, harvesting existing furestS forelcctricityadds net carbon to the air. ThaI rcmainslluc.evcn if limited harvest mrcs letl\'a the carbolll;lllcks of regrowing forests uneltnnged. bcCOJlllC those stocks would othcrwIsc iucrease and coutribute to the terrestrial carbBu sink (1). If b10CDClllY crops displacefurest or gmssJand, the car- bon released livm soils and vegetation. plus lost future sequestnrtion,gcm:ratcs cat'bcln "chI, whlch enunts against Ihe carlton the CroJlS absOrb(7,lI~ Tbe In!elllovemmcalal Panel ou Climate Cb;mge (IPee) has I"ng rcalized that hie- encrgy's greenhouse e!TeelS vary by sourec of biomass and lartd-usc effeelS. It also rae. pgnizes that when furests OI'.other plants are batvcStcd for hiocllCl'lJY, the resulting carbBn release must be cOlmled either as lund-use emissions or energy emissions but not both. To nVoid.doublc-counting, the lI'CCassigns theCO, fO lbe land-use accouatsand exempts biocncrgyemissillus from cncrgyaccounlS (S), Yet it warns, bccausc"fossill\lel substitu- tioOisalrcndy 'rewarded'" by this exemption, "to avnidUlldcrrcporting . . . any changes in biomass stOCks ."n 1!lDds . . . resulting flom the pro4uctiou ofbiofuels would need to be Included in the a<:eolllllS" (9). ThinymmelriellJ approach worb f<l1' the reporting tmder lhe United Nations Framework ConvcutiQll UI1 Climate Cltnnge (UNFCCC) because virtually all wuutries report eml5sions livm both land and energy tt$c. For eXllIll]lle, if forests are cJCIl1'cd in Southeast Asia to prodw;<: paJm .biodiescl burned in Europe, Europe can exclude the tailpipe emissious liS Asill reports the IlIll!c net carbBn release as land.usc amissilln.. . . However, llXCrnpting emissions from bie- encrgyUS<.'is improper for gR:Ollbousc gas tcg. ulations IfJand..usecmlssionsare not in<:1udcd. The Kyoto PrOtocol caps the cacrgy emis. sions of d.....lPpcd countries. Buttbe pTlJlo.. eol applicsno limits te land llSC or any other emissiousfromdcvclupingCOlllllries; 1lJld spe- cial crediting rules for "forest lIIlllIllgcmenl" allow developed C<lt1IUI'\l.'S lOc:ancel oUt titeir own land-usc emissions as weU (I, 10). Thus. maintnil)lng the CXl.'IDJlIlon fur CO, emillcd by biocaergyuscundcr the proIt>OOl(/J} \1Iroogly tJ<:ll\ll bi!iuuergy from all biomass sources as C1lrl1<l1l ncutra~ evert If the source involves clearing forests for clcctrieity in Europe or eonwrting them to bIodicscl crops in Asia. ThIs accouutingctrorhnscarried over wo the European Unioa's ~-trOOc: law and tile elil11llle bill passed bylbe US.l:loUSc of ReprescntaliVcs (I, 12, 13). BQthn>gUlate emissioils from energy but Ilolland use und then erroocuilsly exempt CO, ell1illed from bioenergy use. In theory, the ai:countiug sys- tem would work if caps c:overt:d aIlland-use emlssioninlad sinks. However. this approach isl>olh tcchulcally and politically ebalJcugiDll as it is uxtrcn\cly hard to mCllllClC all land-use emissions or to dlstingnish buman and l1llltr tal causeso'fl11lll1)l emissions (c.g.. fires). The straightfOIW>U'llsolutiou is to fix the accounting ofbiocnorgy. That mcuns tracing the actual ilows of cmbon and UOIIOling emis- ~101lS from miJpipes and smokestacks witctltGr lfum fussil CIlCl'IJY Qf bloencrgy.lnslend oran lIS!lIDIlpliuu IImt all biomass offsets enclgy emlsslOU!l,biomassshould rcceivec:redillo the extent that its use rcsullS m additional earlxm livm enhanced plant growth or from the asc of residueS orblowastes. Under any crediting systcm,c:redils mllS! refJccl net changes in car. bon stoCks. emissiunsofuoa-CO,grecnhouse gases. aad leakagc emissions rcSnlting from changes in land-use activities to replace crops Qf timber diverted to b11lU11l:rgy (I). Separately, Europe and the Uultcd States itavll established legal requirements for miu- Intum use of blofueJs, which assess green. house gas eouse(\l.tCl1CCS based on life-<:ycle analyses that @llnct some Iund-use c!'fects (/, 14). Such assessmenlB vary widely in compreltcnsiveness. bot none considcrsbie- lIlels free from land-based emissioils. Yet the Cm:bun cap accounting ii!1l<lJeS land-use emissions altogl>lbcr, crcatlnglts own ltnge. perverse Incentives. aioenergy enn provide mueb enelllY and bcIp \l1CCt grcenltOUllC taps, bot correct lICCUUating nlllst provldl: the right incentives. llelereuteS '"'" Not... 1._"""""",~6,,_Q/lllls l'llIkyF.....'.."'~Ill1l>elU~_ moIOrIaL . 2. M;Wls<eI<rI.Sdeoo1lZ4.Ue3l2l>>91. 1.1.M;A1eUIloel<rl.U_f~C_ ipJenlI<oj. GIoIlo1 BiofuelPfD/It!ii1i l&\lll<\fm ProgJam IWplIlt_Mal1lI<__<>Ir.dmotow. CamIlrfdgv.1llA.2U091. 4. _En<tIlJ~_lIl'kdmDI<I!/1""""" m..:IlISuppM./I1>rGeI'lllDO/A<tItm:_tmd ~/D2fJWI_lilmforf'_c.._. !loP and lle\<l_loEClllliEi\, -. 2008~ S. '1'CC.20JJ6IKC~/"'__6Dt _..._edbyll>.NalfDnal_GM __I_"htr~!nYIronmeA- ~$lratl!QIes(JGES).tokyo._.llill1L 6. UI,oich.al.M._Ill/liiifO<J$:EnvIromntnJoIC... mplOtIffl.",,~ChongingI.mltJUse _mIings O/t1Jo5dentl/kC....."...._oJ rhe Environment. R. W. tkAYarlh, and S. 8rifigeiu" Eels. (C_ ""'.1'1.... ~bac~ NY. 200'1). pp. .'-1(J9. 7. I. SoOlChlng"otol.Sdtm:.319.1238l2OO!J). a PpllIlolle.I.HIIl.1l,TiImao.s'l'llIaUy,'_ Sd<me 319, liS 12tl1l3l. 9. R._otol.!lb..lIl1ldu..ImltJ.U<oCllanj<. """f<mI'101'CC. ClmbrldgoUohr. -.~. _. 10. UllFC((.l1<ponO/t1Jo",*",,""'t1Jo_.. "'__Mli.._byI1>rCOPlFCCC! CPI2OOlllJl3tMd.l. UNFC((, -. 2C021. Add... clum.pan2. 11. UIl1CCC.UpdotedUNK((tllpDltlnggu_.. .-_"f<rl1miingint__'ftJ>eprO!l/- </tins D/ dedslon l4IaU1 IfCC<:JS\d>>h1ialy 8Cdy lot 5dm1lIfl<....T~"'''''~. _._~..23. 12._CommlssloD._2OII3I81'>CO/the _hdlammr""".IU>eCOWldlD/13_ 2IJfJ3.01ll<~llDllll>llloll!>e_UnlOllI27S. l'l.JO.2003. U. 1beAmerkan Clean Entr-g:y Md Stc.ttJl1y Ad of 2009, H.l.2454. 1I1~, 0>n9. '" So<> (as~ by us. _Ol""""",_J>;Iy2CU9!. 14. to.SOaI<hIllg,,;IllBiDftlds:_..-oJa,n,.. _"""t~wltltChol1gingUirlllUse: _nti'oIl11<-'C_"_,,, J1>e_~R."_""'s'Ilrinil<'zu.Ed$. (ComeII UnIv. -.'_ll'OC09I. pp. )1-52. 15. ltteauth"u~thant.ifortlttsuppl:Jft-oftbt'Gel'ltian _UFtollloliboUnll<dStalei. suPJlOltlarl. Onlln& MalerlaI mm.~.oi'gJ(911(cm1~9S2f527ro.cl 10,1126fsdePte.ll18791 528 23 OCTOBER 2009 VOL326 SCIENte www.ll$n<:emag.org PubIbhod/7yMAS ... ... 5l o ... f {l 6 e> o g> .E '" <> C Ql ~ ! E g 1il 1il I " ::I; AMERICAN LUNG ASSOCIATION(~ (9 I Fighting for Air NATIONAl HEADQUARTERS Charles D. ComO!' President & ChIef Execu1lve OffIcer 1301 Pennsylvonla Ave., NW Suite 800 Washington, DC 20004-1125 Phone; (202) 785-3355 Fax: (202) 452-1805 61 Broac.lwqy, 6th Floor New York, NY 10006-2701 Phone: (212) 315-8700 Fax: (212) 315-8800 www.lungUSA.org Stephen J. NOlan, Esq. Chair Mary H. Partridge Chalr-elect Bruce A. Hertlng Past-Chair H. James Gooden secretary Terrence L Johnston Treasurer Albert J. Rizzo, MD Nationwide Assembly Speaker June 24. 2009 Tlleflooorable Henry A. Waxman ChlIirinan House Committee on Energy and Commerce United States House ofRepresentl11ives Waslrlngton, DC 20515 The Honol'llble Edward J. Markey CbaInnan, SUbl;ommittee on &ergy and the Envlro!UJlent House Committee on Energy and Commerce United States House ofRepresentati\'eS Wasltlllgton, DC 2(l$IS Dear ChaInllal:i Waxman andChllinnan Markl!y; As you Cl>>lSider leglslatiOllIo address global climate change and energy poliey. the Anterican Lung Association urges you to use thisopportunlty to target widespread pollutants that can both directly harm lung health of millions of Americans and worsen ljIobaJ climate change. At a mfulmum, we urge you to selcet mechanisms that prevent increlJses in ambient air pollution and hazardous air pollutants. Over 186 million Americans continue to live and breathe in areas with unhealthy air in the United SUItes. The American Lung Association SUJlIlOI'lS aggressive strategies to reduce greenhouse gasemlssious that maximize eo-benefits of reducing criteria pollutants and pro'(ide near-term poblic health henefits.. These strategies include ambitious progIlllllS to reduce the country's dependenceoo fossil fuel combustion and promote cleaner alternative vehicle technologies and fuels. These require iealch;mges; substantial increases in clean renewable energy resources; a transformation of the land use planning process to emphasize SlIIart growtlt policies that promotl) alternatives 10 driving,1lnd. as well, significant reductimts In power plant and indu$lrial emissions. We urge yon 10 .consider approaches that target two critical two critical pollutants well within reach-black carbon and ozone. BlaCk carbon, or diesel SOOI, and 0Z01l1: not only significantly impact global wanning but also endanger pnhlic hea1tb. Black carbon from diesel, a mixture of 40 different toxic substances. increases the risk of developing lung cancer. O2onl:, the most commonly encountered ponutant in America's cities. damages long capacity and aggmvates asthma. Both pollutants sead people with asthma and other chronic lung diseases to the hospital and emergency room. Both em short the Jives of thousands of people every year. Because black carbon particles and ozone have significantly shorter life-spans in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide. immediate controls can make a near-term difference in the level of global warming. as well has have immediate health benefits. . . Chainnan Waxman and Chainnan Markey June 24, 2009 Page 2 The legislation should support state and local air pollution control efforts and include strong controls on major sources of emissions. Please include stronger controls on coal-fired power plants and other major industrial sources that also reduce sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, mercury and other toxic air contaminant emissions. The legislation should promote clean renewable electricity, including wind, solar and geothennal. TIle Lung Association urges thaI the legislation not promote the combustion of biomass . Burning biomass could lead to significant increases in emissions of nitrogen oxides, particulate matter and sulfur dioxide and have severe impacts on the health of children, older adults, and people with lung diseases. TIle American Lung Association thanks you for the opportunity 10 share our perspective. Sincerely, /"'// . ( '( / . (o' /. \. .' c. (./.., _" ",. t.1; \..._~ Charles D. Connor President & CEO . , (fY b!tP:/Ieuro~.orw?view=articIe&uri=/journals/gYgIP8_Q 3/2007GL031101l2007GL031101.xmI&t=2008,Jacobson On the causal link between carbon dioxide and air pollution mortality Mark Z. Jm:obson Depart:nrent of Civil and Environmental Engineering,Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA Greenhouse gases and particle soot have been linked to enhanced sea_level, snowmelt, disease, heat stress, severe weather, and ocean acidification, but the effect of ~bon dioxide (CO2) on air pollution mortality has not been examined or quantified. Here, it is shown that increased water vapor and temperatures from higher CO2 separately increase ozone more with higher ozone; thus, global warming may exacerbate ozone the most in already_polluted areas. A high_resolution global_regional model then found that CO2 may increase U.S. annual air pollution deaths by about 1000 (350-1800) and cancers by 20-30 per 1 K rise in C02_induced temperature. About 40% of the additional deaths may be due to Ozone and the rest, to particles, which increase due to CO2_enhanced stability, humidity, and biogenic particle mass. An extrapolation by population could render 21,600 (7400-39,000) excess CO2_caused annual pollution deaths worldwide, more than those from C023nbanced stortniness. @ http://environmental'''''''''''hweb.org/cwslarticle1newsl32401 Ian 11,2008 Carbon dioxide increase causes air pollution deaths Each degree Celsius rise in temperature caused by increased carbon dioxide levels could cause about 1,000 deatbs from air pollution each year in the US, says Mark Jacobson of Stanford University, US. The gas boosts concentrations of surfaeeozone, particles and carcinogens, all of which are detrimental to human health. Around the world. air pollution deaths each year induced by additional carbon dioxide could amount to 21,600 per degree of temperature rise. That's a greater . number than is likely to be caused by man-made, climate change-related storminess. This is the first time that a link has been made between carbon dioxide levels and deaths from air pollution. Heightened levels of carbon dioxide raise atmospheric temperatures and water vapour content, in turn increasing ozone and particle concentrations. The ozone increases in particular occur in locations where ozone is already high, says Jacobson. "More than 30% of these deaths occur in California, which has six of the 10 most polluted cities in the US," Jacobson told enviromnentalresearcbweb. "This is significant since the EPA (Environmenal Protection Agency) recently denied California a waiver [to its ruling against states setting specific emission standards for carbon dioxide] based in part on (a) no special circumstances occurring in California, (b) no studies isolated carbon dioxide's effect on air pollution. and (c) no studies quantifying the health effects of carbon dioxide. This study addresses all three issues. " Jacobson says that the deaths are already occurring, since global temperatures, on average, are about 0.80Celsius higher than in pre-industrial times. "Based on the results of this study, I would think the EP A should revisit its decision since California does have a special circumstance based on the scientific results found here, namely that climate change will worsen air pollution the most in areas already polluted, n he said. Around 40% of the extra deaths are likely to be caused by higher ozone levels, which can cause respiratory and cardiovascular illnesses, with the rest accounted for by increased particle concentrations. Higher carbon dioxide levels &dash; and the associated increases in water vapour and temperature - can enhance the stability of particles, raise biogenic particle mass and enable particles to interact with airborne chemicals, increasing their toxicity. The study also found that cancers may increase by 20-30 for every one degree rise in temperature caused by carbon dioxide. To obtain his results, Jacobson used the nested global-urban climate-air pollution -ct ,t 3D model GATOR-GCMOM. This incorporates emission, aerosol, cloud, meteorological, radiative, transport and surface processes as well as gas chemistry. Jacobson, who reported his work in Geophysical Research Letters, ran two global simulations, setting carbon dioxide levels to pre-industrial values in one of them and comparing the results. About the author Liz Kalaugher is editor of enviroomentalresearchweb. . . .t1:0 0Y Mark E. Hannon Richardson Chair and Professor in Forest Science, Department of Forest Ecosystems and Society, Oregon State University Timothy D. Searchinger Research Scholar and Lectcrer Princeton University, Transatlantic Fel1ow, The German Marshall Fund of the U.S. William Moomaw Professor of International Environmental Policy The Fletcher School, Tufts University Fehruary 2, 2011 Dear Members of the Washington State Legislatcre, Several new wood-burning hiomass electric power facilities are planned for Washington State. Recently, the Washington Department ofNatcral Resources provided you with a report stating that genemting power from biomass reduces greenhouse gas emissionS.! We write as climate researcbers coucerned about the approach to carbon accounting endorsed in that report. A critical conclusion of the report is that biomass of all kinds, including harvested trees that would otherwise remain standing, should be treated as a "carbon neutral" fuel, an assumption tlte authors ascn"be to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (!pCC). However, this conclusion is based on a misinterpretation oflPCC accounting, and is inconsistent with the best science of forest carbon accounting. Cmfting a biomass policy based on this report's conclusions could lead to an increase in total carbon emissions from the power sector, an increase that would be incompatible with Wasbington's goals of decreasing greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2020, and to no more than 50 percent of 1990 levels by 2050.2 The DNR report stales: The Department of Natural Resources supports the approach wherein a neutrality determination for a State's greenhouse gas emissions from forest hiomass energy production is made so long as the state's forest carbon stocks are either stable or increasing. This is the case in Washington's forests. In addition, forest biomass energy prnduction can have positive greenhouse gas results to the extent that it displaces energy production from fossil fuels. This approach ignores critical factors and makes it likely that greenhouse gas emissions will increase for many years where biomass replaces or displaces fossil fuels. Biomass has a lower energy density than fossil fuels,3 and is inefficient because its generally high moistcre content requires that energy be expended to evapomte water before useful energy can be obtained. Because wood burns at a lower I December 2010 update from Washington Stale Department of Natural Resources: the "Forest Biomass Initiative". 2 RCW 70.235.020: Greenhouse gas emissions reductions - Reporting requirements. 3 At about 213 !b C02Immbtu, bone-dry wood produces 182% the C02 of natural gas, which produces about 1 17 Jb C02lmmbtn. Differences in facility efficiency account ror an even greater gap in stack emissions between biomass and natural gas. ,> temperature than fossil fuels, the efficiency of electricity production is also lower. This means that in practice, burning biomass emits 150 percent the carbon dioxide of coal, and 300 - 400 percent the CO2 of natural gas, per kilowatt-hour of electricity generated. . If the biomass burned is truly from "waste" wood normally generated in the course of timber harvesting, then these combustion emissions are approximately equivalent to what would occur over the course of natural decomposition, although they are emitted instantaneously instead of over a longer time period as occurs in nature. However, if fuel is obtained by harvesting trees that would not otherwise be cut, a position that appears to be rationalized in the DNR report, then the carbon "payback period" is decades to more than a century, even if the harvested trees are replaced. The report's approach to carbon accounting does not acknowledge this, instead assuming that the carbon from trees harvested for fuel does not need to be re-grown in place as long as forest carbon stocks remain constant within the state as a whole. Forests in the northern hemisphere are on balance growing and accumulating carbon for a variety of reasons, and that ongning growth is helping to hold down the rate of global warming. The DNR report's assumption that as long as fOreal carbon stocks remain constant, the amount of CO2 being emitted by bioenergy is balanced by forest carbon uptake4 disregards this ongoing increase in carbon storage. Using wood for power generation that would otherwise be added to furests thus not only increases the mte of CO2 emissions per kilowatt-hour but also reduces the critical fOreal carbon "sink". If forests harvested for energy are allowed to re-grow, that re-growth absorbs carbon dioxide and helps to offset the carbon released from the initial burning of the trees for energy. But paying back the carbon released will nearly always take many decades, and in some cases centuries. For the DNR scenario to work, where constant forest inventory guarantees biopower carbon neutrality, forests would need to somehow "compensate" for the net increase in carbon emissions that occurs when trees are cut and burned fur energy. However, taking credit fur fureat carbon uptake that is happening elsewhere (that is, not on the plot that was cut for fuel, but on other forests) is not legitimate, because cutting and burning trees in one place does not by itself increase forest carbon uptake elsewhere. In fuct, applying the carbon gains of other forests within the state to the credit of biomass fuel amounts to double-counting, because these gains in other forests are already accounted for in the carbon balance. DNR's approach is similar to declaring that every business in Washington State is profitable, even a business that loses millions of dollars, so long as the State's businesses are profitable in aggregate. In short, the proposal is an accounting scheme with no accountability. The DNR report claims that the IPCC treats biomass as carbon neutral as long as forest stocks in a countrY de not decrease, but this is not correcl The IPCC did not assume that the burning of trees has no effect on global warming. The reference is to guidance provided by the IPCC on countrY-level reporting of all greenhouse gas emissions, which requires that countries report in separate sets of books not only their energy emissions, but also their emissions from land use change. In effuct, once trees are harvested for any PUI]lOSC, IPCC rules require that their carbon be reported as a land use release. Because that carbon is already counted, and to avoid double counting, the IPCC rules appropriately provide that the carbon should not be counted again if the trees are burned for energy. It is true that on a national basis under the IPCC guidelines the emissions from harvesting trees may be offset by positive land management elsewhere. But that is allowed because a national accounting system intentionally looks at the net sum of positive and negative effects. To evaluate whether any 4 Page 31 of the report . . particular bioenergy activity increases emissions, its consequences must be assessed alone rather than hidden by the total mix of a nation's or state's total emissions. Will Washington's growing biomass power sector rely on increased forest harvesting for fuel? The number and scale of biomass facilities proposed in Washington strongly suggests that new trees will have io be cut to provide fuel for these plants, because Diill residues and logging residues are inadequate. A National Renewable Energy Laboratory reportS establishes that there is only a negligible amount of mill residues in Washington left unused. As for forestry residues, a recent state- level biomass inventory6 estimates thai there are about 3.5 million green tons of residues generated annually in Washington State. However, only about half of this, or 1.75 million tons, is really collectable due to the need to retain material onsite for soil fertility and the logistical constraints of collection. In contrast, the combined wood demand of just the biomass power facilities proposed in Washington is more than 3 million tons of wood peryear;7 and new wood pellet plants and biofuel plants will require another several hundred thousand tons per year, for a combined demand that is currently two to three times the realistically available supply oflogging residues in the state. The amount of new biomass generation currently proposed in Washington would amount to less than I percent of the state's electricity generating capacity . Yet even this relatively small amount of power generation seems likely to put new demands on Washington's forests and their delivery of multiple ecosystem services including timber. This will transfer standing forest carbon into the atmospbere, thereby increasing carbon emissions from Washington's power sector. Simply declaring biomass power to be carbon neutral does not malce it so. Policy must distinguish among sources ofbiornass if it is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. We urge you to insist that any use of biomass for fuel require proper carbon accounting that accurately reflects the impact of biomass carbon emissions on achieving Washington State's climate goals. Thank you for the opportunity to communicate our concerns regarding the impacts of increased biomass electricity production in Washington. ~~~~~, {, , , i I .: //l'" ,/( ') " i ~. t r ;/ Z;,'. K" J ~ . ,<". AI 7~.,,>-..~~' , Milbront, A. A geogmphic perspective on the current biolllllSS resource a\lllilability in the United States. NERLffP- 560-39181. December,200s. 6 Washington Stale Department of Ecology and Wasbington Slate University. BiolllllSSlnventory and Bioenergy Assessment. December 2005. 7 A general rule of thumb is that it requires around 13,000 tons of green biolllllSS to deliver one megawalt of electric power to tbe grid for one year. f . fj~f ~toioG'" w~, ~tl;7Ao/:; "~J?lrJ " ~ " ~\ . ; ,; ~~ riIOENERT&Y' ~":; ~ A~'"' , GCB Ilioenergy (2011), dol: 10.1111/j.1757-1707.2011.01102.x @ CO2 emissions from biomass combustion for bioenergy: atmospheric decay and contribution to global warming FRANCESCO CHERUBINI", GLEN P. PETERSt, TER]E BERNTSENH. ANDERS H.STR0MMAN".nd EDGAR HERTWICH" meportmmtof Energy tind Process Engirreering, Norwegftm UnlvttsityofSdenceandTer:1mo/ogy (NTNUJ, No-7491 Trondheim. NIJT11IfI)J, teenier fr1r IlderntltiDnaI Clil1l6le ttnd EmJIromnental ReseMth -Oslo (CICERO). OSlo. NIJT11IfI)J. fDeparlme1/1 of Geosdel1ce$. Unlilerslly of Oslo, NIJT11IfI)J AbstIad Cubon dioxide (co.> emllIsioJlS .&om biomas~ combllstlon are tradiliO!t8lly assumed climate neutral If the bioenergy sy$Iemi. carbon (C) ftux neutral, Le. the CO. rel-.:l .&om "Iomel combualion approximately eqDllI$' the amount of CO. sequestered In "iomass. ThJs amveutiou, widely adopted In life cycle _men! (LeA) stwiles of bioenergy$Y5fems, undereatimulea the !:llinate Impact of bioeumgy; BesIdes Co. eJltis.. sIons.&om ~I C 1_ co, emissions .&om C JIux neutra1 ayalemB (lhaIls from temporal)' C losses) also <ontribute 10 climate change: bef9re belng.:aptured by biomass resrowIh, Co. mole<olea spend time In the atmosplwrEl and conbibule 10 global warming. In thla paper, a methocllo ""fImAtP the climate Impact of CO. emiasiomi .&om biomass combustion Is proposed. Out method uses co. iDlpuJse response functions (JRf) from C cycle models In the eJabomtion of atmospheric decayfun<tiona for blol1'1llS$, derived co. emlssions. Thelrcontribulionslo g10blll wamling are then quantified with a uni!-J>ased Index, the GWP.,.. Sin.. thla Index ia expte&SOd aa afun<linn of the rotatiqn period of the bl_, our results <an be applied 10 CO. emissions .&om combustion of aU the dllfereul biomaas species, from annual roW' crops 10 slower gRlWing boreal forest. Keywords: bl__rgy, l:8rbOn neutraL COz accounting. global wam>ing potentlal.LCA !le<eiverl14 October 2/l1i1; reIIised wrsion _iotd 31/anWlnj 2011 and ampletl 7Fe/muJry 2011 lnIrod'!lction BnckgTIIU1Ul In 1991, the fitst comprehensive guidelines for esllmat- Ing national greenhouse gas (GHClemlssions and sinks compiled by the OrganIzation for Ec:onoml< Coopera- tion and DeVelopment (OECP) states that 'Co. emls- sions resu1tlng from bloenergy <OllStlmptioD &hould not be Included In a country's offidaJ emll;sIlm Inventory' (OECD, 1991). ThIs convention is motlvaied by the considemtion of the carbon (C) neutrality of bloenergy: because growing forests sequester C. then aa long as iU'e8S harvested for biomass are kept forested. the C Is again absorbed In growing trees and consequently the nelllnpact on GHG emJsslons Is zero (Manmnet.2010). For this reason, m national GHG Inventories dired carbon dioxide (~) emissions !rom bloenergy are not rep<lI'ted In the e!nl!l'!lY sedor (as for fossIls) but In CorrelpC>nden<e: _0 ChmlbW, tel. + 4?7 3591l942. __mall: francesco.che_.no @ 2011 llIad"..,U PubUsldng Ltd the land use, land-use c:hange and forestry (LULUCF) """tor, according to coWlUy...peclfk regulalions (UNFCCC, 2003; IPCC, 2006). SteJnming from lhls con- vention. prllnary resellt<'h Jir., cycle assessmenl (LCA) studies tend 10 llnpllcitly ll55UIlle Co. emissions from blo_ <ombllStlon climate neutral If the bloenergy sySlllm is C flux neutral, I.e. co. emlSslons from tem- porary C lo&ses are traditionally ignored. In LCA studies of bioel\ergy sys/!lmS, the OECD convention is llnplemented following. two basic a<- counting procedures. The majority of <ase slndies ignore the co. flux within a bIoenergysystem, assum- Ing that co.l!bsorbed ""PJaIs Co. emitted; so giving a net flux baJan<e of zero; lhese studies sllnpl)' assign a global warming potential (GWP) equal to zero 10 dire<t co. emJsslons (e.g., Carpentieri e/ al., 2llO5; Petemen Raymer, 2006; Hno e/ .1.. 2llll8; Kim & Dale, 2llll8). Other studlIla follow the Ec:olnvent database (Werner et at, 2003) and offset co. emissions !rom biomass <OJltbua,. lion wllhall upstream sequestration credlllhatisnearly <<iual to the c:ombu&lion emission. In lhls c:ase,a GWP equa11n 11s assigned to Co.. wl!kh Is considered 10 be 1 2 F. CHERUBINI elnt. offset by the sequestration of the same amount of Co.. that occurred to grow biomass CReljnders & Huijbregts, 2008; Luo et al., 2009). These accounting conventions are 50 widely adopted that in the majority of LCA studies it Is not even mentioned whiclt one of tlte two Is used (van der Voet et nl., 2010; O,erubini & StrolIUllllIl, 2011). A recent paper reporls that in only four of the 67 case atndies reviewed the exclusion of the dinlate effect of biomass- derived Co.. emissions Is explicitly indicated, wltile In two cases it is clearly mentioned that emissions and removals are botlt included and offset (van der Voet et 01., 2010). Most of tlte studies generally find a reduc- tion in the contrlbution to dinlate dlange when ble- energy systems are compared to fossil reference systems, provided that permanent dlanges in terrestrlal C pools are minimized (Quirin et 01., 2004; Searcy & Flynn, 2008). One of the main reasons for tills result is tlte absence in GHG balances of tlte dinlate impact of co., emitted from biomass combustion. Botlt in past and recent literature, an increasing perception of tlte inadequacy of t!tIs accounting c0n- vention and its implementatlon In LCA can ba identi- fied. Already some years ago, IlOrjesson & Gustavsson (2000) did not presume wood to be C neutral and a=unted for co., emissions from biomass as tltnse from fossils. Rabl et 01. (2007) advocated 'thet emission and removal of co., ba accounted explicitly at eacl, stage of the life cycle' . Even if they rea1ized that tile net effect at the end would be almost zero, they claim thet using t!tIs approacl, allows a dynamic modeling of emissions and removals. 0tIlers have questioned tlte distinction between fossll and blomass-derived co., in national GHG accounting. empllllSizlng tllat 'all Co.. is equal In the abnosphere' and IPCC only provides vague guidance concerning this crucial matter, and further detailed analysis would be Illghly desirable to accu- rately account for all Co.. fluxes (M5lIersten & Grilnk- vist, 2007). Johnson stales thet we should say 'goodbye to C neutral' for bioenergy from forests Oohnson, 2009), while other researchers have focused on fixing 'a critical dinlate accounting error' (SearcIlinger et al., 2009; Searcltinger, 2010). Searcltinger et 01. (2009) moved a step forward, stating tllat 'replacing fossil foels with bloenergy does not by itself reduce C emissions', since the Co.. released by tailpipe emissions 'is roughly tile same per unit of energy: In order to mitigete climate cl1ange, bloenergy must ensure thet 'the growth aod harvesting of tI,e biomass for energy captures more C above and beyond what would be sequestered anyway and tl1ereby offset enllssions from energy use'. A further distinction can be seen between LCA besed on forest wood and fast growing biomass species (an- nual crops and Iiguocellulosic energy crops). Studies i ,,'1 which focus on bloenergy from fast growing biomass generally tend to account for permanent cl1anges in terrestrial C pools only, while basically Ignoring tlte climate impact of co., from temporary dlanges (I.e. biomass llarvested for bioenergy and tI,en regrown). TIlls is a reasonable assumption for fast growing spe- cies, but may not apply in tIte case of blofuels from slower growing biomass, like forests OoImson, 2009; Marland, 2010). A forest may take up to 100 years tomregrow, and the system can be delined C neutral only at tI,e end of proper time bouodarles: Co.. is emitted in one point In time when biomass is burnt but tlte sequesiratinn In the new. vegetation is spread over several years, depending on tile specific rotation period. Even if in tltese cases the fact thet C neutral does not mean climate neutral Is straightforward, tills aspect bas been seldom considered In LeA, despite tlte importance of the issue being thoroughly acknowledged from the early 19905 (Harmon et al., 1990; Marland & SChlam.... dinger, 1995; SchIamadinger & Marland, 1996b). Studies tllat considered tIte time dimensions of forest growih are essentially studies of forest C dynamics. These atndies usually report an increase in GHG emissions of forest bioenergy systems in tile short term, in favor of a decrease in net GHG emissions in tile longer term; in some cases, a specific C deficit and pay-back time (up to some decades, depending on sJre.specific parameters and reference system) Is Identified (Marland & SchIa- madinger, 1995; SchIamadlnger & Marland, 19%b; Manomet, 2010; McKeclmie et al., 2010). Manyanalyti- cal models are avaJlable to perform t!tIs type of tempor- al analysis (Scltlamadlnger & Marland, 19960; Masera al al., 2003; ScIlelltaas et nl., 2004; Kurz cI nl., 2009). A common feature of tltese assessments is to show results as a trend of cumulative Co.. emissions over century timescaIes, and do not elaborate yearly unit besed Indicators. TIle work performed in tills paper bridges thjs type of aualysis witlt LCA methodology, providing a methodology to estimate the contribution to global warming of co.. flux neutral bioenergy systems in terms of GWP, so to provide an Index which can be promptly included in LeA. Aims and objectives All Co.. emissions, both from combustion of fossil foels or biomass, alter tI,e C cycle and hence the earth's radiative balsnce, tltus causing a climate impact that should be estimated. Our main aim in t!tIs paper Is to quantify tIle climate Impact of blomass-derlved Co.. emissions witi, a unit-besed Indicator to be used in LCA or C accounting atndies. We focus on a single biomass rotation where an existing aboveground C stock, eitllet a crop or a forest, Is harvested for bioeuergy and later :D 2011 Blackwen Publlsblng LId, GCB Bioenergy, doi: 10.1111/j.1757-1707.2011.01102x , . GLOBAL WARMING POTENTIAL OF CO. FROM BIOENERGY 3 allowed to regrow. We use this schemalll: case to retain the focus on the key resean:h question, without adding the complexity and additional assumptions linked to the possibilities of using specific factors like local con- ditions and biomass management strategies. ThIs paper ls structured as follows. The current method used to estimate the atmospheric decay of anthropogenic co. emissions ls firstly described to- gether witll a metric for measuring their contn'bution to GWP. Afterwards, the cfimate hnpact of Co. emis- sions from biomass combustion (bIo co" from thls point forward) ls Investigated through the formulation of proper atmospheric decay functions, which are used In the GWPbIo Index. FInally; results are presented as a function of the biomass rotation period, and the most relevant hnplications related to this methodology are discussed In the finaJ section. Materials and methods Anthropogenic C02 emissions C cycle climate madels. Co. emissions play a key role In the earth's C cycle and cfimate system. Those Whlcll . are classified as anthropogenic (i.e. from fossil fuel combustion, cement production, deforestation and land-use cl18nge) are one of the main responsible for anthropogenic climate cl18nge (Forster et al" 2007). Complex C cycle cfimate (CC) models, which establish the link between atmospheric co. concentration and anthropogenic C emissions by modeling uptake and excl18nge fluxes of tile atmosphere with the oceans and the terrestrial biosphere, are used In model the thoe evolution of airboroe Co.. In order to make analysis easier for smaller case studies, such as LCA, Impulse response functions (IRF) are often used to represent Co. atmospheric decay under given assumptions (Thblello & Oppenhehner, 1995; JOO8 & Bruno, 1996; Enting et al., 2001). The oceans play an hnportant role for tile removal of anthropogenic C They are generally distinguished Into the upper layer, which has a vel)' fast tornover rate (Wanninkhof, 1992), and the deep ocean, to whlcll C Is transported thrOUgll oceanic circulation (J008, 2003). ThIs latter process Is tile limiting factor for the ocean's uptake capactty, which Is determined by ocean volume and sea water chemistry. TIlls uptake capacity Is only reaclted after several centurles, and It takes millennia to eqw1ibrate ocean water and sediments after a pertorOOtion In oceanic C content. COOnges In the land biosphere and In the upper ocean Influence atmospheric Co. concentrations on seasonal to century thoe scales. Several models dealing with the C cycle In the oceans have been formulated (Oeschger et al., 1975; Siegenthaler & JOO8, 1992; Blanke & Delec1use, 1993; Caldeira & I<asting, 1993). Modeling tile terres1rlal components of the C cycle ls more challenging because of tile natural variability of some basic parameters (Enting et al., 2001). The must common way of modeling terrestrial C transfers ls to use diacrete compartments as leaves, branches, soil C, etc., characterizi,c) by an Inttial C content and tornover thoes. The C transfers from tile air to tha plants ls described by a net primary production, which may depand on specific parameters like tempemture, nument levels, water supply and others. TI", terreslriaI part of the different cfimate modeIs usually differ In the number of physiological comparhnents, feedback effects and tile degree of disaggregation (FriedIIngstcin et al., 1994, 1995; PrentIce et al., 2llOO; Cramer et al., 2001; M<:GuIre et aI., 2OOl). Atmospheric deem). Thanks to tbe elaboration of tllese CC modeIa It Is possible to predict tile atmospllerlc decay of Co, emissions (Maier-Rehner & HasseImann, 1987; Lashof &: Ahuja, 1990; Caldeira & I<asting, 1993; Joos efal., 1996,2001; Entlnget al., 2OO1}.1n all the cases, Co, does not follow a simple decay according to one single lifetime (as it is for the two other main GHG, N.O and 01,), but Its decay is described by several thoe constants and there is a fractlnn of tile Initial emission that always remains In the atmoopllere. The fraction of Co. remaining In tile air following a co. release depends on future atmospheric Co, concentrations, because the partial pressure of co. In the ocean surface ls a nonIinear function of surface lotal dissolved inorganic C concentration (Caldeira & Kastlng, 1993). The analytical fonn of tbe atmospheric decay of anthropagenic Co. Is given by a superposition of a number of exponentlals of different amplitude A, and relaxation thoe Tf f... yco,(t)=An+LA~-fl',j. (1) M The value of tills function at any tinte represents the fraction of the Initial emission which Is still found In the atmospltere, and tile removed fraction corresponds to the ocean/blosphere uptake. The amplitude An represents the asymplotlc sirboroe fraction of co. which remains In tile atmospbere because of the equillbrIum response of the ocean-atmosphere system. TIle amplitudes Ai may be ink< p,eted as the relative capacity of the other sinks, whicll are filled up by tile atmospheric Input at rates cbaracterlzed by the relaxation tinte scales Tf. These tinte scales determine tile redistn'butlon of antluupogenic Co. @2011 BIacl<weII Publishing Ltd, GCB BfOlm"8!J, dol: lO.11l1/P757-171l72011.01102.x 4 F. CHERUBINI etal. emissions in the climate system and are linked to the lime scales of the natural C cycle. Because of this exponential decay !rend, more than half of the initial input Is removed from the atmosphere within few decades after emissions through uptake by the upper ocean layer and the fast overturning resezvoirs of the land biosphere. However, a certain fraction is still found in the abnospllere after 1000 yeatS; this fraction is only very slowly reduced further by oceaIHJedimeut inleIactlon and the weathering cycle (Archer et al., 1998). Metrics for climate change The climate bnpact of GHG emlssions needs to be compared with a consistent metric. In this paper tIle GWP Is used, rather tIlIl1\ other possible metrlcs (Fugle- stvedt et 01., 2003; Shine et 01., 2005). This metric was developed as a relatIve measure of the potential effects on climate of a GHG compared witIl Co... GWP lleavily relies on the corn:ept of radiative forcing which gives the perturbation of the earth energy balance at the top of the atmosphere by a clbnate change mechanism. The cumulative radiative forcing for a pulse emission, which is often referred to as the absolute global wann- . ing potential (AGWP), is given by tile integral over thne of the product between the radiative efficiency of tIle gas (~) and the decay function, yet), that defines the fraction of the gas remalnlng In the atmosphere after a unit pulse (Co) AGWP = Co /.'" .y(l)dl, (2) where tile radiative efficiency (~) of Co.. is (Forster et 01., 2007) ([CO;]) "<:0, = 5.351n [CO.] . (3) Where [C~I is tile concentration In the atmosphere after small perturbation and lCO"I Is the initial concen- tration of Co.. In the atmosphere. If the background concentration of 378 ppm provided by the lPCC report is used, and a perturbation of 1 ppm Is applied, tIle t~ 1 value of the radiative efficiency for Co.. is 1.41 X lO-s Wm-2ppb-l. Since the decay of a Co.. pulse emission bas a non- zero asymptote, its integral from zero to infinity is infinite. To avoid this, several attempts to define an effective residence thne for Co.. in tile air have been formulated (Houghton el al., 1990; Lashof & Ahuja, 1990; Rodbe, 1990; Moore & Braswell, 1994). In the 1990s, the lPCC Introduced finite thne horizons (THs) (20, 100 and 500 years) for integration in the GWP, where the Co.. decay functIon by Jaos et 01. (1996) was used (SchimeI el 01., 1996). As specified by the lPCC Itself, tlle5e different 1Hs should not be considered of any scientific significance (Fuglestvedt et 01., 2003; for- ster et 01., 2007). GWPs were then elaborated for all tile different GHGs (denoted as " according to this equation GWP AGWP, Co J:' ~,y,(t)dl ,= AGWPco, Co Joni "<:o,yco,(l)dt' (4) GWP then acts as a metric able to aggregate emission of the various gases to a common unit (kg CO,,-eq.). In Table 1, GWPs for given 1Hs are shown for tIle tllJ'ee most bnportant GHGs, together with their lifetime and radiative efficiency. CO2 emissions from biomass combustion The atmospheric decay of Co.. emissions from biomass combustion can be predicted with the IRF from C climate models only if biomass is not replanted (I.e. deforestation), or a LUC occurs. Even if consistent results were achieved in upgrading the modeling of the biosphere compartment (Gerber et 01., 2004), Ihe basic principles remain unchanged: if biomass is replanted, emissions from combustion are neutralized by CO" re- moval during regrowth; if biomass Is not replanted, bio CO" emissions become anthropogenic CO" (Strassmann et .1. 2008). TIleIl, a new IRF needs to be elaborated to predict the atmospheric decay of bio CO". Modeling assumptions. TIle met1lod developed in this paper is applied to a well-defined schematic case study thet is suitable to demonstrate tile approach Table 1 Lifellme. radlallve effldency, and global wanning potentials (GWPs) for different time horizons of the three most Important greenhouse gases (GHGs) GHG Carbon dioxide (COz) Methane (Cfl,J NitrotlS oxide (N,O) Radiative cffidency Ufellme(years) (Wm-2ppb-1) GWP 20 years GWP 100 years GWP 500 years na 1.4 x 10-5 1 1 1 12 3.7 x 10-4 72 25 7.6 114 3.03 x 10-3 289 298 153 00, not available. <ij 2011 Blackwell Publishing Lid, GCB Bioenergy, dol: 10.1111/).1757-1707 .2011.1l1102.x I . GLOBAL WARMING POTENTIAL OF CO2 FROM BIOENERGY 5 proposed (see Fig. 1). It is assumed that all biomass is burnt in one time step so that the Co., emission is modeled as a pulse. The biomass harvested is from an even-aged vegetation stand (representIng the slarling condition) wInch is dear cut sod the Iaod is Immediately revegetated with the same biomass species after harvestIng. We assume that the regrowth, at the end of the rotation period, captures the same amount of Co., that was released by combustion (I.e., we assume the entire process is C flux neutral). Only one rotation is assumed. Co., emissions from loss of C pools other than abuveground vegetation. like soil sod litter, are not considered at this stage. According to the most common praclice in biomass growth modeling (Swanow et 01., 1990; Rossi et aL, 2009), the rate of biomass growth (or regrowth, in our case) can be modeled as a nonnaI distribution (Gaussian), expressed as atmospheric C uptake in vegetation as a funclion of the rotation period of the biomass. This is a probability density function that has the following analytical form: g(l) =~e-(t-p~/2<i', (5) v2""," whare the parameters I' sod 0 (mean sod variance) can be used to represent characteristics of forest growth. It is assumed that the mean occurs in the year with tIle maximum C uptake and is taken as half of the rotation period VI = r /2). TIle variance determines tIle width of tIle distribution, sod it is hare assomed to be equal to half mean (0 = 1'/2). Colclllalion procedures. The concentration in the atmosphere of bio co., over time can be descn'bed by ~.. .Rotatd:Wpeood,t --_.._~ (a) (e) u n (b) lima (yearn) F11} 1 Slmpli/icd scheme of ti,e carbon flux neutral system modeled In this paper. (a) Biomass SIand .1 _y state; (b) all abovegtou11d carbon Is harvested aud emllted 10 the atmosphere asCQz. Simulfaneousl~ the same biomass is repJanted and starts growing by sequestering the co. released from combustion; (e) the oame quantity of Cllrbon originally released Is sequ_ once again In the vegetaHon at the end of the mlallon. means of an IRF whid, refers to the reaction (as a function of time) of any dynanric system in response to some external change. In our case, this means that tI,e atmospheric decay of bio Co., is derived through rombioation of the biomass regrowtI, sink (tile Gaussian curve, modeled as a negative emisslon) with the IRF modeling the removal of Co., by the ocean and/ or terrestrial biosphere sinks. In mathematical terms, tIrls is a convolution between two funclions, based on a conventlnnal and widely used approach (Siegenthaler & Oeschgel; 1978). TIwn, the atmospheric co., con- centration fil) after a pulse emission can be re- presented as the sum of earlier emissions g at time I' multiplied by the fraction still remaining in tile atmosphere after time I-I' f(l) = lICeD(I') - g(I')Jy(1 -I')dt', (6) whare CD is tI,e pulse emission of bio Co., to the atmosphare, .1(1') is the delta function (wllld, is zero everywhere except at the origin) g(1') is the rate of biomass regrowth which removes the Co., originally released, sod y(t) is the IRF from the C cyde climate model. EquatIon (6) can be written as follows: f(l) = l c"o(t')y(1 -I')dt' -l g(t')y(l- t')dt'. (7) Since Co = 1, we can write f(l) = y(l) - 1.' g(t')y(l- t')dt'. (8) This equation describes the almosplleric decay of a pulse of blo co., over time. The term represen- tieg the biomass regrowth, g(l'), is defined in Eqn (5), wIllie tIrree alternative options are possible for the IRF y(1): 1. Following the OECD convention, bio co., emissions are removed from the atmosphere by the onsite biomass growtl,. If this closed I"""p""tive is adopted, bio co., will decay from the air only because of tile biomass regrowth. TIrls means that there are no contributions from the rest of tile C cycle romponenls, sod y(1) = 1. Since it is totally unphysi- cal to neglect any Co., uptake from the oceans or other sinks, tlris option is considered hare only to analytically demonstrate the inadequacy of tile OECD convention through the inconsistent results obtalned. TIUs approach will be referred to as tI,e vegetation IRF (V]RF). 2. As we have mentioned previously, oceans playa key rule in the removal of Co., from the atmosphere. In this second case, tI,e ocean sink is added to the <1) 2011 Blackwell Publishing LId. GCB Bioenergy, doi: lo.1l11/j.I757-17J17.2D11.o1102.x 6 F. CHERUBINI elal. veg<!lation regrowth sink by considering a proper climate model, so giving a specific pro/l1e for the abnospheric decay of bio CO;" the ocean and vegeta- tion IRF (OVlRF). 3. As considered In CC models, when a Co. molecule is released to the atmosphere can be removed by both the ocean and terrestrial biosphere. In this case, a complete IRF is used and the resulting atmospheric decay is referred to as the full IRF (FIRF). In all the cases, the resulting function fil) is used in Eqn (4) to get an Index of the relative climate impact of co. emissions from bInmass combustion GWP _ AGWPbIoco, Co 10m aco,f(t)dt (9) bIo- AGWPco, CoJ;;"ot;o,y(l)dt' VIRF. In tills case, the biomass C cycle is IndependentIy modeled as a closed system, from combustion to removal by vegetation regrowth, which is tile only sink considered. TIlls option appears consistent with the convention currentIy used In bioenergy LCA, where co. emissions from biomass combustion are assumed to be offset by biomass growtIl. In mathematical terms, tills means thet y(1) = 1, aod Eqn (8) can be written as f(t) = 1 -1' g(I')dt'. (10) The integrsI of this function is the cumuIstive density function, which is the total C accumulated in the biomass stand along the full rotation. TIlis integral can be expressed in terms of the error function erf, so that Eqn (10) becomes f(I)=I-Hl +erft~)], erf(l) = ;"1' e'"'" <Ix. (11) TIlls allows the calculation of the atmospheric decay for Co. emissions from combustion of differeni bInmass species, according to the rolation period r. OVIRF. TIlls case models tile removal of bio Co. from the atmosphere because of two compartments, tile oceans and the vegetation sink due to biomass regrOWtIl. TIle rest of the terrestrial biosphere is not considered here as a possible sink. The same approach has been considered in the past to predict tile contribution to climate change of co. ernlssions from a forest fire (Randerson et 01., 2006). As in the VIRF case, the vegetation sink is modeled witIl the GaussIan t' distribution, wlu1e a proper CC model Is to be used to predict the atmospheric decay due to ocean uptake. TIle IRF of scenario It4 from tile ocean model described In Caldeira & Kasting (1993) is selected. TIlls Is a box- diffusion ocean model appropriate only on lime scales lower than 1000 years, when interaction with sediments and rock cycles Is of secondary importance. in this case, atmospheric Co. content Is stabilized at 550ppm by year 2150, the 1990 groWtIl rate in atmospheric co. content is 1.66ppmyr.' and the growth rate at the stabilization date is zero. The IRF resulting from this ocean model has the analytical form of Eqn (1), whose perameters are reported in Table 2 aod profile Is sllOWn in Fig. 2- If Eqn (1) is included in Eqn (8), we have f(I)=Ao+ fA,..."" - {' ~e.(f.'rzf(JJ.,"f M io v2nrfl. (An + fA;e.'.f''')dt' M (12) TIle integral is estimated by numerical approximation. FIRF. Co, emissions from biomass combustion are here considered to be removed from all the possible sinks, the oceans, the terrestrial biosphere aod the onslte biomass regrowth. TIlls integrates bio Co, enlissions into the global C cycle. A complete IRF should be therefore used. Among tile existing models, the IPCC FourtIl Assessment Report selected the IRF derived from an updated version of the Bern 2.5CC model (Forster et 01., 20(7). in this paper, the same IRF is considered. A detailed description of tills model can be fuund elsewhere (joos el 01., 19%, 2001). TIle analytic furm of this IRF has been shown in Eqn (1), while its Table 2 Parameters to be used In Eqns (1) (Bern CC model IRFl and (12) {ocean only IRFl Ocean only Bern 2.5CC Parameters IRF mode11RF An A, A, A. ^' 0.297 0.321 0266 0.lJ83 0.033 335.8 18.4 2.8 0.8 0217 0.259 0.338 0.186 Tl T, Ta T4 172.9 18.51 1.186 IRE Impulse response luncliOll. ID 2011 Blackwell Publisbing Ltd. GCB B_ergy. dol: 10.1111/j.I757-1?U7.2011.ll1102.x r ~ GLOBAL WARMING POTENTIAL OF CO2 FROM BIOENERGY 7 ... ..s ..1" (kean-flnly lR.t .j 0.7 " ~ o.G " 'E '!. 0.5 ! g 6.4 . 0' ;.. ll.3 - Helm l..~.e mfNkoJ lIU" """-, 0.2 0.1 o o '-'" ............... ......, .......... '.,.........,-....-. 100 :roo .tOO ..... SOIl '111D("()'f1m) 600 700 8UO Fig. 2 Atmospheric decay of a pulse co. emission a<:cotdlng to the !WO different complex carbon cycle climate (00 models considered. parameters are reported In Table 2 and !he curve is shown In Fig. 2. TIte profile of this function should not be dlrectly compared with that of the ocean-only IRF presented In !he previous section, because !hey are based on different conditions and parameters (even though a slowest decay is predictable when oceans are the only sink). In this case, Eqn (8) can be expllcitly written as follows: f(t) = (AO+ ~A",-tl') _ r' ~e-W-'/2i'fM'>'(Ao+ fA...-t-rl")M. 10 ~ ~l (13) The inlegraI is estimated by numerical approximation. The lncIusioo of the terrestrial biosphere component among the sinks allows the uptake in tile natural biosphere, but will potentially include a (small) form of double counting of lhe vegetation cum!"" Inoent since also the onsite vegetation regrowth is considered. However, this should not be the case because the Bern 2.SCC model only considem lhe potential co, uptake from stimulatioo of plant growth by elevated atmospheric Co.. levels aud enhanced nutrient supply, aud 'does not Include fonnulation for forestry management nor bioenergy production' (Slrassmann et ol. 2008). Resnlts and discussion Bio CO2 atmospheric decay In Fig, 3, the tI>ree different IRF describing the decay of bio Co.. emissions from tIle atmosphere are oomparad for selected rotation periods of 1, 10, 20, 50 and 100 years, as weD as when r ~ 00 (that is trees are not replanted). The decay of anthropogenic Co.. according to tIte Bern 2.5CC model is also shown for comparison. This decay appiles In case of deforestation or perma- nent terrestrial C losses. For V1RF, OV1RF and FIRE tIle longer tIle biomass rotation period, the longer is tIle mean stay of Co.. in lhe atmosphere. TIle effect of the rotation lengtIl on the FlRF-based decay is shown In Fig. 4, where the bio CO2 fraction remaining In the air after a pulse emission is reported as a function of time and biomass rotation period. In lhe long term, aD lhe decays asymptotically tend to zero, since a C flux neutral system is modeled. As already mentioned, the V1RF curve is based on the OECO convention of a closed cycle for biomass-derived Co.. (from combustion to uptake In new trees). TItero- fore, the resulting atmospheric decay simply represents tIle Inverse (from an atmospheric point view) of lhe sigmoid cumulative C accumulatioo curve describing biomass regrowth. This is clearly Inconsistent witIl CC models: If trees are not replanted bio co, would never decay, as silOwn In Fig. 4 (VIRF) with r -+ 00. SUcll a result is obviously a paradox, and can be seen as an @2011 Blackwell Publishlng Ltd, GCB B~dol: 10.1111/j.I757.17D7.201I.o1102.x 8 F. CHERUBINI elal. 1.1 ... t .. 0.7 i ... o., IU .. ~ o~ ... '" ... 0 0 10 j }; t.6 S .. I: 8' ... g ! ... ~ I ... ~ s' ... 0 ...1 VlIlf .an on so n.(I)(yfm) 0Jl 'i' :) -...... -,....to "'=- raU -r=>5IJ _ f'urGO _ t'---<o't - fk1'I:i2-<trmtJtbJ 100 uo o ..... TI"'(IH~fO"'1 ,...,. roo f -,.""10 ~- r"" 2D - r"'SO -,.",-100 -r-....'t. - Ik'ro UC'c ntUtkJ _r"'l -- r~IO ~~ "",-20 _I'''''!UJ -,.:::.100 - f'-. dUern2.5Ct.~.fWlIIclt TImoCOll<m) Fls. 3 co, oimosp/l<rJc decay followlng the vmF. QVIR!' and FIRF moIhod for selected rolallan pmods (I; years). VlRF. _milan Impulse _!undion; OVlRF, ocean and ""JlflalIon Impulse _Iundio", FIRF. IuU impulse response function. FlRF ,O2()11 BlackWell Publishing U<I. GCB ~ dol: IO.I1lI/P757-17ll7.2011.onm.x .. ~ GLOBAL WARMING POTENTIAL OF CO,. FROM BIOENBRGY 9 ,.0 -.... =... c:=J u _u CDU -.. _t.G -, , I I I I 1 1 I I ... \1 :: If. , ... 50 '.. ~ '30 "'~ '20./1 ~ ~ '1D ~;1' ~1j; '-40-" - . GO-. '....--.,.:: - 100' FIg. 4 Wo co. AUl105pllerk _ AS A _ DI_...... blo...... n>tallon perio<l fur ll1l> FIRF ...... FllH\ fun. ~ ~illn<Ifon. a:naIyIlcaI--derived evidence of the physIatllna~ of the OECO convention. the profile oI the curves from OVIRF and FIRF are similar, since they are both the outrome oI a convolu- tion operation beI"eeh the Gaussian and an exponen- tlaI funcllon. As It would have. been e<pecled, the OVIRFd<icay is slightly longer than the FJRF, where the Co, lIeqU!!Slmtion is favored by the Inclusion oI the terrestriaI biosphere slnk. This can be appnlclalec;l by looking at the points when> the curv~ turn to negallve valW!S:forr = 100 years, the OVIRFbecomel negative at t ~ 71 years, whlle the FIRF at I ~ 65 years. ~ r - 00, the curves are equaI to the '''''l'''''t1ve fom:Jfon y(t) derived from the CC model considered. inEqns (12) and (13), for the OVIRF and FIRF case, tespectlveiy. Among the three methods, the FIRF appears as the most physlcally and logically consistent, and the curve for r - oocolncldes willltbe anthropogenic CO. d~Y' At 6rst sight, the presence of negallve values In the atmospherle decay prQIlIes of OVIRF and EmF may appear as a contradietlon, because tbeamoUlilof Co..ln thealtnosphere is lower than the level before tbe emis- sion. The reason for this is that atmospberle co. is taken up in dIffimmt blogeoehemitl>l sinks at different ll:me constants, as mathli!ll1lltlcally ~led by Eqn (1); as impl1dtly assumed by I!qn (8), the same time constants are also applied to co. uptake In biomass regrowth. Soon after the emission, when the biomass grOwth rate is stlU slow, a significant fraction of the Co.. originaDy released ill quickly stored In the ocean upper . laYeJ:The foIlowlng transport oI t1tis C to the deep ocean Iayel'!! Is slower, and when the uptake by the onsltel:1i_ regrowth increases, the C lnit:IaIIy sloted in the ocean upper layer Will be released bad to the atmosphere ata low rate to compensate the InillaJ overabsorption (out-gasslng). In the long term, the air- borne fraetlon oI bio Co.. iq>plOOebes zero. Tlte GWPbIo illde:r /l/1d its i/lkrprellltW/1 The curve; of FIg. " areused to get the climate effect of co. eotissions from bI_ combustion after their inclusion in 1lqn (9). This is a metric relative to. the climate effl!ci of anthropogenic Co.. and based on the IniegratiOn up to a defined TH. in Table 3, the CWP... index Is reported as a funcllon oI the biomass rolati!>n period for the VIRF, OVIRF and FIRF. TI""", results are shown for lha tbreemost common 1Hs (20, 100 an4 SOD yeatS). The use oI tills Index Is Identical to the other GWP equlVa.1ency factors: It Is to be multipUed by the dire<:t CQ, emissions from biomass rombustlon to get their relative contributIon to global warming in terms of kg COz-eq. This allows an estimate of the climate impact oI co. flux neutral systems in LCA and other similar methodologies. Results are intended to begeneraUy applied to an bIomass sources (speclfled with the rota- tion periOd) from annual row crops to fast growing biomass, trOpIcal, temperate and boreal foresls. l'o1' annual crops and for short rotallon ~pedes, the rotation period is usually very sitort, from 1 to 5 years. The resulting CWPblu Is small, $ce the average lifetime of bin co.. In the atmosphere In this case Is so short that the contribution to global warming islimiied. When the rotation period becOlllllS longer, e.g. from fast growing ~pecies (r = 5-20) to trOpIcal (r = 25-50), temperate (r=55-80) and boreal (r=80-100) forest, the climate impact increases atCOrdingl)< The fad that GWPbIu Is larger for longer rotation periods should not be over interpreted: it only means that short rotation biomass (e.g. annual crops, short rotation coppice) ha~ less climate Impact t!IlUI long rotation biomass (e.g. forest wood) per unit of Co.. emittedfrom tbe CODll>l1$I:Ion of the biofueL Belorederiving general conclusions, t!Iere are many other aapeclltto be considered Uke effideney in biomass convenllon proc:esses, number of rotations, seleetion of proper time and spatial ~, land. use changes and other life cycle implltatlons (1!ke material and energy inputs for c:uitivatlon, harvellting. processing and transport). Land-use changes could also include facto.-.; sodtas dtangell in surface albedo (in partleular at latitudes wlt!I seasonal snow cover), change in soli C ronlent, and thanges in fluxes of heat and humidity between the1lUrface and the atmosphere. Misleading conclusions am Clnly be avoided by lIt- tDunting fot aU climate forcing agenlS, Uke GHG entis- slons, removals and, in Slllt\e cases, substitutions, wlt!Iln a IIfe..eycle perspective, preferably using case- ,. 2OIIllIad<well I'tlbIisblng Ltd, GCB ~ dol: lo.11l1/j.I757-17D7.201I.oU02.l< ',~ ]0 F. CHERUBINI ela/. Table 3 GWP"", Index calculated with the tIuw dlfferen. methods and for three different time hmizons; 2IJ, 100 and 500 yearn VIRF OVlRF FlRF GWPbIo GWPbIo GWPbIo GWP",. GWPbIo GWPbIo GWPbln GWPbIo GWP"" Rotation r (years) TIl~2IJ TIi~l00 TIl~500 TIl~2IJ TII = 100 TIl~500 TIl =20 TIi=loo TIl=500 1 0.04 0.01 0.00 om 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 2 O.os 0.02 0.01 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.04 0.01 0.00 4 0.15 0.04 0.01 0.11 0.02 0.01 om 0.02 0.00 6 023 0.07 0.02 0.16 D.04 0.01 0.13 0.02 0.00 8 0.30 0.09 0.05 0.21 0.05 0.01 0.18 0.03 om 10 0.38 0.11 0.03 0.27 0.06 0.01 0.22 0.04 0.01 12 0.45 0.13 0.04 D.32 0.07 0.01 0.27 o.os 0.01 14 ll.53 0.15 0.05 0.38 0.08 0.02 D.32 0.06 0.01 16 0.60 0.17 0.05 0.44 0.09 0.02 0.37 0.06 0.01 18 0.68 0.19 0.06 0.50 0.10 0.02 0.42 0.07 0.01 2IJ 0.75 0.22 0.07 o.ss 0.12 0.02 0.47 0.08 0.02 22 0.82 0.24 0.D7 0.61 0.13 0.03 0.52 om o.oz 24 0.89 0.26 0.08 0.66 0.14 0.03 0.56 0.10 0.02 26 0.95 0.28 0.09 0.71 0.15 0.03 0.61 0.10 O.oz 28 1.00 0.30 0.09 0.76 0.16 0.03 0.65 0.11 0.02 30 1.05 0.32 0.10 0.80 0.18 0.04 0.68 0.12 O.oz 32 1.09 0.34 0.10 0.83 0.19 0.04 0.71 0.13 O.oz 34 1.13 0.37 0.11 0.86 0.20 0.04 0.74 0.14 0.03 36 1.16 D.39 0.12 0.89 0.21 0.04 0.76 0.15 om 38 1.19 0.41 0.12 0.91 0.22 0.05 0.79 0.15 0.03 40 1.21 0.43 0.13 0.93 0.24 0.05 0.80 0.16 0.03 42 123 0.45 0.14 0.95 0.25 0.05 0.82 0.17 0.03 44 1.25 0.47 0.14 0.97 0.26 0.05 0.83 0.18 0.03 46 1.27 0.49 0.15 0.98 0.27 0.06 0.85 0.19 0.04 48 1.28 0.52 0.16 1.00 0.28 0.06 0.86 o.2IJ 0.04 50 1.30 0.54 0.16 1.01 0.30 0.06 0.87 0.2l D.04 52 1.31 0.56 0.17 l.oz 0.31 0.06 0.88 0.21 0.04 ~ 1.32 0.38 0.18 1.03 0.32 0.07 0.89 0.22 0.04 56 1.33 0.60 0.18 1.03 0.33 0.07 0.89 0.23 0.04 38 1.34 0.62 0.19 1.04 0.34 0.07 0.90 0.24 0.04 60 1.35 0.64 0.20 1.05 D.36 0.07 0.90 0.25 0.05 62 1.35 0.67 0.2IJ 1.05 0.37 0.08 0.91 0.26 0.05 64 1.36 0.69 0.21 1.06 0.38 0.08 0.91 0.27 0.05 66 1.36 0.71 0.22 1.06 0.39 0.08 0.92 0.28 0.05 68 1.37 0.73 0.22 1.07 0.41 0.08 0.92 0.29 0.05 70 1.37 0.75 023 1.07 0.42 0.09 0.93 0.30 0.05 72 1.38 0.77 0.24 1.08 0.43 0.09 0.93 0.30 0.06 74 1.38 0.79 0.24 1.08 0.44 om 0.93 0.31 0.06 76 1.39 0.82 0.25 1.08 0.46 om 0.94 0.32 0.06 78 1.39 OM 0.25 1m 0.47 0.10 0.94 0.33 0.06 80 1.39 0.86 0.26 1.09 0.48 0.10 0.94 0.34 0.06 82 1.40 0.88 0.27 1.09 0.49 o.tO 0.94 0.35 0.06 84 1.40 0.90 0.27 1.09 0.51 0.10 0.95 0.36 0.06 86 1.40 0.92 0.28 1.10 0.52 0.11 0.95 0.37 0.07 88 1.40 0.94 0.29 1.10 0.53 0.11 0.95 0.38 0.07 90 1.41 0.% 0.29 1.10 0.54 0.11 0.95 0.39 0.07 92 1.41 0.98 0.30 1.10 0.55 0.11 0.95 0.39 0.07 94 1.41 0.99 0.31 1.10 0.56 0.12 0.95 0.40 0.07 % 1.41 1.01 031 1.10 0.58 0.12 0.% 0.41 0.07 98 1.41 1.03 0.32 1.11 0.59 0.12 0.96 0.42 0.08 100 1.42 1.05 0.33 1.11 0.60 0.12 0.% 0.43 0.08 GWP, global warming potential; VIRE vegetation Impulse response function; OVIRE ocean and vegetation impulse response function; FIRE full Impulse response function; 111, time hmizon. <D 2IJ11 Blackwell Publlshlng Lbl, GCB Bi=1&!b doi:.I0.1111/j.1757-1707.2011.01102.x . ~ GLOBAL WARMING POTENTIAL OF CO2 FROM BIOENERGY 11 .specllic paramelets. ~re, Table 3, c(0$ noteX?u.. dlly mean that one biomass llOUJ'<e is b!ilteT than others: a lower value of the indO)( does not necessarlly reflect a lower climate impact of the whoW 1>Ioemlrgy system. FIgure 5 shows the value of the GWP"", index as a function of the biOtNSS Itllallon period fur the three different cases and fur the three selected Tlis. '!'he <:urves have an ""JXIRIl1ttialllend to a maxlmum, wbich bas the same value fur eadi method.and can be better appreciated fur TH =20 yearS. The GWP"", is bigger' fur shork!r TH, because this indO)( considers the area below the decay curve of bio co. relative to that of antbropogenkeo,.. The latter has a fast decay In the firslyears soon after theemfsalon and then a $low asymptollc trendtpWards the ocean/almo- llphere equlllln:lutn, wlUle blo eo,. decay tends to zero. The fIlct that GWl\,. are higher furTH = 20 yean;.l>lther than for TH = 100 or 500 years confirms that bipeDl!rgy is a climate cl\ange mitigation strategy particularly effective fur Iqng..termtllrg$. The VIRF-based GWP"", Is larger than one for smne droumslances. This is a dlrect consequence of the OECO conventlon on whldi the VIRF decay Is based: the O)(c1usloo of the ocean and terresIrlal bIo!lphere uptake other than the onsile regt<>Wllt can make the Qlmate impact of bIo Co. approxllnately 1.5 lilneS higher than that of anthropogenk: Co... This result Is further eyldenl:e about the shmtcomings of the exlstlng a5l;1Ittlption 00 the closed cycle for blomass-derived eo,. emissions. 1.60 1.40 \'DtJHt-tu \1JlfTU"UilJ ....~ \UU ,n-ffO -,_. O\uu fU--ltP - -- lnlRflQ:..rw = '"'"', 0\00 'n.su -nunhia- -nl!fut..1IIQ ~m'O_ uo 1.00 o.w ,. ..... " .' " .' " " .' " .' .' " .' " " " .' .' .' .' ..- ~- .... ...- ....1ll"l:......j!liII ""......... .' _ "_r:cl=~ .:""____F=_~"""' -~~ titIP"p"'-- ",- -..... ",'" tJ;iJJ~'iiii!i. "'...."'...... c:::o-#" .t~fi..........,...,,,.. ..."'.................. - "':"'~_,-~~""'- - =' - ~-o."::: :". :l "tJ.8lI ~ 0.60 0.40 0.00 o 10 w JO 40 50 60 '10 Ilmol.... ptrlod 1r."_1 90 , ConcernIng the OVIRF-based GWP... values slightly higher than one can be ob1lllnedfur TH '" 20 years wtth Itllalloo periodSlDnger than 50 years. The tcason can be seen in the COl'l'esJl<lIld graph in Fig. 3: In the first ~ soon after the ~nllssIon. th~ OVIRF with r larger than 50 years has a .$lower decay than the decay fn>m the Ber112,SCCmodel (used as ~ In the metric), thus affactlng the GWP"", fur TH. = 20 yeaJl!. By con.. trast, the'F1RF-based GWl\to JndO)C tlUIges from 0 10 1, since the same 1RF Is used as y(t) III Eqn (8) and reference In the melric. In this case, tIie climate impact derived from biomass c:ombuslfon and subsequently teabsorbed in the ocean and terrestrial sInl<s am nWer be higher than the impact of the _ quanHty released by fossiUuel combustion or deforestallon. Owing to the c:onsi4eralIon of alI.lhe C cycles with terrestrial and ocean sInl<s, the FlRl' ntethod has the _ consistent results which should be used in bkJeilertly LCA sllIdI"" to esll1tlme the climate Impact .of Co.. ~ from biomass combustion. Cllncluslons and nm out1ook The work I-fw....d in this paper brings a new con- bibullon to the rising discussion on the proper account- ing Of eo,. eml5sl0nll from biomass combustion in bloenergy systeinS. Even If percelved lll;. urgerrl, a methodology able to quantify the effective cIInuu!l lm- pact of biOlUll$S.,dlllived Co.. e~ with l1l1it-based lndlcalUrs was llOt elaborated by LCApractiIloners. The ,~..~.. . -- ~ ' . " ...,. ~"..,,~..,.~"'.~". ~.~..~,. r"' =..,.,.~~."... """'''''' -''''''''--."'''', .~:: "",,"- 80 100 FJs. 5 GWP... fur TH equal 1020, 100 and 500 yean; "",a _on of lI1e l>IOmlls> n>tall<m .perIod. ~ global Wll1'inlng polenllal: TH, Ilme horizon. ," 2011 Illa<kweU Publlsbh1g Ltd. GCB B~dol: lo.llIl1j.1W-l7D1.20ll.lI1lO2.x 12. F. CHERUBINI "tal. most important conhibutlons of this work are the formulation of IRF for the atmospheric decay of Co. emissions from biomass combustion and the adoption of an index, the GWP_ to estimate their climate Impact. Three methods were formulated, the VIRF, based 00 the closed cycle of bio COz, the OVIRF, whicl, includes the ocean uptake, and the FIRF, whicll considers the foil C cycle wlth ocean and terres- trIal sinks. The FJRF.based GWPbIo is the most reliable and accurate optloo, given its complete conslderalioo of all the C compooents and biogeochemical sinks. The GWP equivalency factor currently used for co. enllssions from biomass combustion in LCA should be revised: rather than a value of 0 (when the OECD convention is strictly followed) that underesti- mates the climate Impact of the bioenergy system, or 1 (as performed by studtes considering the initlai co. sequestration during plant growth or by studies based on forest C dynsmics) that overestimate the climate impact of bio COz, this work proposes a figure between 0 and 1, depending on the rotation period of tile biomass harvested. This is a first step towards tI,e overeoming of the inadequacy of Co. accounting in LCA and the development of an accurate and standardized procedure. This work aets as starting point for foture research activities and investigation of specific case studtes. In order to keep the focus of the paper on the development of a methodology to quantify the climate effect of bio co. emissions, a scllenlatic case based on one single rotation and witl, well defined initial conditions and parameters has been selected. The theoretical basis and calculations developed here can be expanded to model more specific case studies, with customlzed biomass growth cmves, multiple relations, particular manage- ment strategies, different starting conditions (e.g. affor- estation rather then deforestation) or other specific factors. These outcOOle5 can also be integrated witllln software tools modeling the climate effects of biomass production on terrestrial C pools and the environmental Impact of bioenergy systems. Besides LCA-based applications, of particular interest is the possibility to include the onlcomes of tills work in national GHG accounting mecll8nisms, so to revise the OECD convention presented at the beginning of this paper. The FIRF for bio Co. is suitable to be combined with the existing accounting of C stock cllanges to develop a robust and thorough C accounting frame.. work. TIlls application may have significant Impects on national GHG reporting for bioenergy production, and consequently needs to be investigated further to explore advantages and disadvantages. Implications at a policy declslon level can be also relevant: new strategies taking into accounl the climate Impact of Co. emissions from 'I> the temporary C Joss needs to be established in order to read, the intended climate policy targets. Acknowledgements The wnrk was funded by the Norwegian research council through the 'Bio-energy Innovation Cenlre-CenBlo' (Cherubini, 5tn>mmsn and Hertwich), 'lhlllSport and Environment - Mea- sures and PoUcics' (Peters and Berntsen) and 'Terrestrial C sequestration potential In Norway und... present and future climate' (Peters). 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EllviranmentaI Researclll.eIlers, 5, 024007, dot 10.1088/1748- '1326/5/2/024007. SearclUngcr TO, Hamborg SP. MelIllo ) cI a1. (2009) FIxlng a aiticnl climate accounting error. ScIence, 326, 527-528. Searcy E, Flynn PC (2008) Processlng 01 straw/rom stover: comparlllon of Ilfecycle emissions. Inlernalional JOlin/a! ofC"", Energy, 51 423-437. Shine K, Fuglcslvadt J, HaUemorlam K, Stuber N (2llO5) Alter- I1lltivas to Ull! global warmlng potential for cnmparing climate impacts of emissions of greenhoose goses. Clhnntic Otnllgl>, 68, 281-302. ~ Siegenthaler U,)oos F (1992) Use of a simple model foratudying oceanIc tracer distributions and the global carbon cycle. refIllS, 448, 186--207. S1egentheler U, Ocsdlger H (1978) Predlclingfutnre atmospheric carl>on dioxide levels. ScIeme, 199, 38f1..395. 5mossmann KM, )oos F. Fiscber. G (2008) Simulating effects 01 land use changes on carbon fluxes: past amtrlbutions to atmospheric COz: increases and future commitments due to Jossas of terrestrial sink capadly. Tei/lls B, 60, _. Swallow SK, Parks Pl, Wear DN (1990) PoUcy-relevant nonron- vcxlnas in the producticn of multiple forest benefits. jallma! of Environmental f.ammnics ol1d Mmmgemcnt~ 19,264-280. 'fubleIlo FN, Opjlenheihner M (1995) impnJse.relponse functions and anlhropogcnlc co,. G<ophys/a1/ Research !.eIters, 22, 413-416. UNFCCC (2003) Esthnnting, reporting, aod accounting of llnrvested wood products. Tedmlcal paper FCCC/TP2llIl3/7. van der VO<! E, Lifset Rj, Luo L (2010) Ufe-<y<:le assessment of blofuels, convergence and divergence. Biofuels, 1, 435-449. Wannlnkhol R (1992) Relatlnnship between wind speed and gas exchange over the ocean. j=/ of Genp1z!Jslco/ ResearclJ - Oceans, ~, 7373-7382 Werner 1\ Altl,.,us H-j. Kfumlger 1; Rimier K (2003) Ufe Cycle Inventorica of Wood as Fnel and Construction Material. FInal report eco1nvent 2000 No.9, EMPA DObendorf, Swiss Centre for Llfu Cycle Inventorlcs, Oilbendorf, 01. ;jj 21111 Blackwell Pnbllshing Ud, GCB BI_ dot 10.1111/j.I757-1707 .2Ul1.01102.x .~. Climate Action Plan - Public Comment (d ;... I I. .. Date Name Format 1 10/17/11 Chris Marrs Letter 2 10/17/11 Brian Goldstein E-mail 3 10/17/11 PhIIID Morlev E-mail 4 10/18/11 Richard Dandridge E-mail 5 10/18/11 Fran Post E-mail 6 10118111 Crlscln Hollinshead E-mail 7 --:- 10/19/11 Joanna Loehr E-mail 8 10/19/11 Crala Durean E-mail 9 10/19/11 Jim Bower E~mail 10 10/19/11 Ron Graaorv E-mail 11 10/19111 Gretchen Brewer E-mail 12 13 L ,. I. I. I ," r I. .. , \\citynlIlll \group\eity admin\Clerk\Council Packets\201 1\1 10711 IClimate Action Plan - Public Comment Ustdoc To whom it may concern, ~ I I I October 17,2011 rro writing in regards to the Jefferson County climate plan:final draft, specifically C02 emissions being considered. In regards to the Port Townsend Paper Company emissions being considered carbon neutral also it appears the plan gives no consideration to the 25 MW cogeneration addition. This is Big. Tho mill bas a large foot print. It seems it's all how you wish to interpret the methods used to calculate their CO2. The mill bas been and still is the sacredcow. We all needjobs, but P.T.P.C. could do much more to reduce their emissions. WIth a little bit of guts on your part. l"ve spoken to Freddy Ley at the Dt.pw.twent of Ecology about Port Townsend. He told me "Port Townsend is a bea.uIiful place, but he would notJive here." That when contacted by someone interested in living here he would advise them not to, due to the P.T.P .C_ This speaks volumes: Plesse don't rubber stamp this. Stop treating the mill like a special.inte.rellt. There ~ more people in this County'then those at the mill The mills emissions are effecting our heaI1h and our prc.,!JCIly. 'Please do the right thing forthe people whom you work for. ' Sincerely, ~~ Chris Marrs 157 Haada Lass Rd. Port Townsend. Wa98368 " . " . ;. Joanna Sanders From: Brian Goldstein [bgoldstein@co.jefferson.wa.us] Sent: Monday, OCtober 17, 2011' 4:44 PM To: CltyCouncn; Jeffbooc, Subject: en mate ActIon Plan Support Jefferson County Commissioners Port Townsend City Counell 1~'. I want to show my support for the CUmate Action Plan prepared by the Climate Action Committee. As 'the Resource Conservation Manager of Jefferson County, I am well aware of the challenges facing our County, and our nation, with respect to the unsustainable use of natural resources. By taking a leadership role In resource conservation, we can help lead the paradigm change needed to curb consumption and begin to slow global impact. This change wlll not happen organically; it requires a conscious, planned approach to behavioral change by all citizens. I reallze this Is a time of austerity for the Clty and County, with declining revenues. And that enacting the ClImate Action Plan requires resources. I'm convinced that a small Investment in the right level of leadership can yIeld large dlvidends,.slnce there are many of us that are passionate about sustainable living and can lend a hand. Please know that I consider allocating City and County resources In supporting the ClImate Action Plan a top priority. .' Thank you, Brian Goldstein 4156 Wilson St Port Townsend " " 10/1712011 COPIED TO COUNCIL 101'7/11 l' Joanna Sanders From: Pam Kolsey Sent: Monday,Oclober17,20115:16PM To: Catharine Robinson; David KIng; George RandeIs; KrIs Nelson; laurie Medllcotl; Mark Welch; Michelle Sandoval Cc: David TImmons; John Walts. Subject: FW: Comment on Public Hearing draft Climate Acllon Plan Pam Kolsey, MMC City Clerk City of POTt Townsend 250 Madison street #2 Port Townsend WA 98368 360-379-5045 pkolacy@c/tyofptus From: Philip Morley [mallto:pmorley@co.jefferson.wa.us] sent: Monday, October 17, 2011 5:09 PM To: kkolff@olympus.net; Judy SUrberi Zoe Ann lamPi Pam Ko!acy Cc: Commissioners; AI Scalf; 5tacle HoskIns . SUbject: Comment on Public Hearing draft Clrnare Actlon Plan Dear Kees, Judy, Zoe Ann, and Pam;, The County Commissioners very much appreciated Kees Kolff's presentation today about the Climate ActIon Plan, which Is the subject of separate Public Hearings before the Commissioners and CItyCoundl today. At the Joint Meetlng of the CIty Coundl and County CommIssioners on July 21, 2011, Commissioner Sullivan distrIbuted and dISCussed substitute language for paragraph 2 of Chapter VI. B. Urban Form and Transportation, which was favorably discussed by the Joint meeting attendees without dissent, In the same manner as other changes agr~ to that day. Howevertoday's hearing draft does not accurately reflect Commlssloner Sullivan's language as It was considered by the combIned bodies. In discussIon of thIs discrepancy this afternoon, the CommIssioners feel the language considered at the Joint Meeting must be carried forward, but that there Is also value in the sept. 22 hearing draft. The July 21l8nguage, which was considered by the Jo1nt Coundl/Commissioners, lIsts the areas already identified as suItable for more Intensive development, while the later draft keeps the door open for potential future additions. To honor our joint process and the results of the July 21 Joint Meeting, and also take advantage of the subsequent draft, compromise language that combines both versions Is shown below, and is submitted for Inclusion In the City Coundl's public hearing record for consideration: In general, concentratlng development within established community and economic centers will produce fewer harmful effects than development outside these centers. For this reason, the County, In coordInation with the eQty should emphasize the need for future development to occur within urban growth a'reas (UGA's, and to a scale appropriate to preserve their rural character, the community and economic centers of Glen Cove, the Jefferson County International Airport, Port Ludlow, Qullcene, end-8rinnon. and other areas suitable for more IntensIve development as Identified In each jurisdictIon's Comprehensive Plan. [underline/strIkeouts above show changes proposed to the July 21 language discussed at the JoInt 10/1812011 !. ~ I I' I I. }; , >. r \. i. I i I' I.. , I I I. I I' I r . I. ;. - Council/Commissioner meeting] Thank you for considering this compromIse language. Phmp Phlllp Morlev Jefferson County Administrator pmorley@co.Jefferson.wa.us (360) 385-9100 x-:l83 This is a reminder that a/l ernail to or from this ernoil address may be subject to the Public Records Act contained in RCW 42.56. Additionally, 0/1 emoil to and from the county is captured and archived by Information Services. .: 10/1812011 Joanna Sanders From: Sent: To: Subject: RIchard Dandridge [dandr@u.washlngton.edu] Tuesday, October 18, 2011 2:37 PM CllyCouncll SuppOrt the CUmale Action Commlllee! Good Afternoon Council members, ~ j ,. ~ . I J. I j. Last week I helped celebrate my grand daughters 6th birthday. I'm extremely worried about what her world will look like when she is my age, some 50 some years from now. We won't have to live in that world but we should be doing everything in our capacity now to help mitigate the climate changes she will be forced to live with because of the way that generations before her lived. . Sincerely Richard Dandridge Citizen at Large member Climate Action Committee ( I. i , i The Point of Power is Always in .the Present Moment "we'd better work in the currencies we can muster: bodies, spirit, passion" McKibbon , 1 , , . Joanna Sanders From; Fran Post [franposl254@gmE!D.com) Sent: Tuesday, October 18, 2011' 3;51 PM To; CllyCouncU , J' " Subject: Tonlghfs council meetln~; ~Iotlal Warming Dear City Councilors, I cannot attend tonight but undeI'$lld you will be considering actions to reduce our city's C02 emissions by 80% below 1990 1~1sby the year 2050. ' !' ..... . It is l>1>pat ent to me that our world 'is in great distress on many froirts, all caused by human activity, including excessive carbon emissions. Most scientists are convinced that this is leading to global warming. I have ~ reading. hearing and learning about this issue for decades now and I am convinced as well. What can a tiny tOW!11ik:e Port Townsend do about this? Well we have all seen how the actions of a few, over time, can lead to cliange. Though quoted so often is has become, trite still Margaret Meade said it best: "Never doubt that a small group of thoughtjU~ oommitted people can change the world. Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has. n Time is running out and so I urge you to adopt the plan formulated by the Climate Action Committee. Thank you, Fran Post 10/1812011 Joanna Sanders I- t r I From: Sent: To: Subject: Crispin B. Hollinshead [cbhoUfnshead@blgrlverllnes.com] Tuesday, October 18.20114:37 PM CltyCouncn support for proposed Climate Action Plan Council Members, I,would like to go on record supporting the proposed Climate Action Plan. I want to applaud you decision to even begin to address this very difficult issue. It is important to appreciate that, while the plan is a modest beginning, considering only 1% of the town's C02 emissions, it is important to make a start. - DLeading by exampleD is a wonderful mission. This leadership will not only be for the local residents, but for other communities that are beginning to address this problem. We can become a model. I urge you to adopt this-plan, and authorize the extension of the committee. Sincerely, Crispin B. Hollinshead 2708 Gise St. Port Townsend, WA 98368 360-379-5424 1 . Joanna Sanders ~. j. . From: Joanna Loehr [joannal@olympus.net] Sent Wednesday, October 19, 2011 4:54 PM To: CltyCouncil Subject: Climate AcIlon Plan j i' i" ~ t' [.. I r i '. i; t: i' To the Port Townsend City Council: This letter Is in support of the Climate Actio Plan for Port TownsenOlJefferson County, Washington that was presented for your approval on October 17, 2011. This plan represents a tremendous step forward. I am grateful to everyone who expended an effort to bring this plan to fruition, from our elected officials to govemement employees and the members of the Climate Action Committee who worked so diligently to make this a reality. The Climate Action Plan truly represents a series of actions that we can take as a community to both help lessen the impact of climate change as well as to get us thinking about what more needs to be done In the future. This is an enormous undertaking. We feel relief that the process has already begun. However, we know that the stakes are huge and that we must keep Il1creasing our efforts over time. The future of our economy and our nation depends on the steps we take now. So much success depends on our ability to shift our collective mlndsets. The Climate Action Plan gives us a discrete set of guidelines for how we can do this in a practical matter and shows us that there are Important things we can do. I hope you will continue to support these efforts In educating yourselves and your constituents; that you continue to be "Governments Leading by Example." Sincerely, Joanna Loehr 5837 Hill S1. Port Townsend, WA 98368 360-385-6579 joannal@olvmDus.net ., .. 1012412011 Joanna Sanders , to- r From: Pam Kolaey Sent: Thursday, October 20, 2011 9:23 AM To: Joanna Sanders Subject: FW: Climate Action Plan ; j L I Pam KoIatJy, MMC City Clerk City of Port Townsend 250 Madison street #2 Port Townsend WA 98368 360.379-5045 pko/acy@cityofpt.us " I' i I I ! From: jeffbocc [maIJto:jeffbocc@co.jefferson.wa.us] Sent: Thursday, October 20, 20119:17 AM To: ZOO Ann Lamp; Judy SUrber; Pam Kolacy SUbject: FW: Ormate ActIon Plan .. FYI... Julie Shannon Executive Secretary Jefferson County Commissioner's Office 360 385 9100 ishannonliilco,ieffers()IL wa.us From: craIg Durgan [mallto:durgan@olympus.net] Sent: Wednesday, October 19, 2011 5:38 PM To:Jeffbocc SUbject: Olmate Actfon Plan Dear Commissioners, ThIs Is my wrltten comment regardlng the Climate Acllon Plan. I am opposed to the adoption of this plan. Regards, Craig Durgan 10/2412011 . Joanna Sanders , , '". From: Pam Kalaey Sent Wednesday, October 19.2011 4:37 PM To: Joanna Sanders Subject: FW: Climate Action Plan '. ;' Pam Kolacy, MMC City Clerk City of Port Townsend 250 Madison Street #2 Port Townsend WA 98368 36(J.379-5045 pkolacy@cityofptus L i. L i. , ~, . i: ,. i i ..... f i" From: jeffbocc [mall1D:jeffboa:@co.jefferson.wa.us] Sent: Wednesday, October 19, 20114:34 PM To: Zoa Ann LamP; Judy SUrber; Pam Kolacy Subject: fIN: Climate ActIon Plan FYI... Julie Shannon Executive Secretaly Jefferson County Commissioner's Office 360 385 9]00 ishannonf{D.co.iefferson.wa.us v r From: Jim Boyer [maDto:j2010b@gmaIl.com] Sent: Wednesday, October 19, 20114:18 PM To: jeffbocc . Subject: Climate ActIon Plan Commissioners Jobnson, Sullivan & Austin, To the framers of the U.S. Constitution, property was as sacred as life and hoerty. The inalienable right to own - and control the use of - private property is perhaps the single most important principle responsible for the growth and prosperity of America. It is a right that is being systematically eroded by mernal forces that many have not [yet] learned to recognize. Regardless of how it is spun, the goals of Agenda 21 are clear. The offshoot of that plan created as ICLEI bas been creeping into every facet of American life even to the point of some cities and counties paying dues to the UN. body that designs the roles oriented toward broader control over privately held property and subsequently to eliminate it altogether. Such allegiances may violate laws against making treaties with foreign powers. UN. Conference Report excerpts,set forth their official policy on land. The Preamble says: "Land...cannot be treated as on ordinary asset, controlled by intlividtmls and subjact to the pressures and inefflciencies of the 11J41'kef. Private land ownership is also a prl:ncipa1 instrument of accumulation and concentration ofwealth, therefore contributes to socio1 injustice. " . '. 10124/2011 , ,. ~. The PJ:eamble is followed by nine pages of specific policy recommendations endorsed by the participating nations, including the United states. Some oftbose recommendations read as follows: Recommendation A.t I I. . (b) All countries should establish as a matter of urgency a national policy on human settlements, embodying the distribution of population...over the national territory. (c)(v) Such a policy should be devised to facilitate population redistribution to accord with the aV811ability of resources. j.' I' I f Recommendation D.t , (a) Public ownership or effective control ofland in the public interest is the single most important means of...achieving a more equitable distribution of the benefits of development whilst assuring that environmental impacts are considered. (b) Land is a scarce resource whose management should be subject to public surveillance or control in the. interest of the nation. Cd) Governments must maintain full jurisdiction and exercise complete sovereignty over such land with a view to freely planning development of human settlements.... Recommendation D.2 (a) Agricu1tura1land, particularly on the periphery of urban areas, is an important national resource; without public control1and is prey to speculation and urban encroachment. (b) Change in the use of land...should be subject to public control and regulation. (c) Such control may be exercised through: (i) Zoning and land-use planning as a basic instrument of land policy in general and of control of land-use changes in particular; (Ii) Direct intervention, e.g. the creation ofland reserves and land banks, purchase, compensated CAplOpriation and/or pre-emption, acquisition of development rights, conditioned leasing of public and communa1land, formation of public and mixed development enterprises; (Iii) Legal controls, e.g. compulsory registration, changes in administrative boundaries, development building and local permits, assembly and replotting. Recommendation D.3 (a) Excessive profits resulting from the increase in land value due to development and change in use are one of the principal canses of the concentration of wealth in private hands. Taxation should not be seen only as a source of revenue for the community but also as a powerful tool to encourage development of desirable locations, to exercise a controlling effect on the land market and to redistribute to the public at large the benefits of the unearned increase in land values. 10/24/2011 , . (b) The unearned increment resulting from the rise in land values resulting from change in use ofIand, from public investment or decision or due to the general growth of the community must be subject to appropriate recapture by public bodies. Recommendation D.4 (a) Public ownership ofIand cannot be an end in itself; it is justified in so far as it is exercised in favour of the common good rather than to protect the interests of the already privileged. Recommendation D.5 (b) Past patterns of ownership rights should be transformed to match the changing needs of society and be collectively beneficial . (c)(v) Methods for the separation ofland ownership rights from development rights, the latter to be entrusted to a public authority. In order to push the action items of Agenda 21 through local ICLEl efforts the advocates of this movement toward social justice decided upon and recommended the use of passive sounding terms that have become common place in local governmental discussions. Among them are: Precautionary principle Sustainabillty Buffers Smart Growth Public - Private partnership Visioning Stakeholders Affordable housing . Anti-sprawl Consensus L i i 1 The driver, the agreed to theme with which to expand participation in the U.N. program was "Global Warming." Opposition to the unproven and widely challenged hypothesis of anthropogenic global warming over the years has led to it's theme moniker being changed to the more ambiguous and benign term "Climate Change": While the name is harder to dispute, the ideas behind the U.N. program have not changed. As the public has become aware of the troth behind the regulatory and often unconstitutional process taking place around them actions are being taken against this unscrnpulous plan and it's undermining of the US Constitution. Last summer citizen pressure caused the City of Spokane to drop it's ICLEI ties and more recently, our neighbors in the City ofSequim and ClalIam County have done the same. For Jefferson County to publish it's coonection with ICLEI on it's official web page and is a clear indication that this course of action is founded on an unproven theory and that implementing new regulations binding our citizens to contracts signed in conflict with laws gojding treaties and American Constitutional rights. The fact that this plan has been developed in collaboration with the City of Port Townsend which may be violating constitutional law by creating a treaty in paying dues to the international organization is another reason to reject this proposal. Add to all of this, the fact that the county is suffering deep economic problems and it should be recognized that this ill founded effort is not putting the interests of our citizens in their proper place. SuborrlinAnng the county you were elected to protect to the devices of an organization that is set on implementing an interoational process for 10/2412011 controlling people and property flies in the face of all we believe in. This Climate Action PIan should not be given your approval. t , i- Tun Boyer , Port Ludlow , ,- i: j.: r I I- I I ,- I: I- I- I I I- 10/24/2011 . :"( Joanna Sanders From: Pam Kolacy , Sent: Wednesday, October 19, 20111:24 PM To: Joanna Sanders Subject: FW: CUmate Change , r I r \ i; Pam Ko/acy, MMC CIty Cleric City of Port Townsend 250 Madison Street #2 Port Townsend WA 98368 36a-379-5045 pkofacy@cityofptus " I, From: ~ [maRto:jeffbocc@co.jeffeJ'SQn.wa.us] Sent: Wednesday, October 19, 20111:25 PM To: Zoe Ann Lamp Cc:; Pam KoIacy; Judy SUrIlilr SUbject: /W: aJmate Change FYI ... Please see emaII below. .TuIie Shmmnn Executive Secretary . Jofi'erson County CnmmI..nnQCl's Office 360 385 91QO j~hslnnt\T1f1m...n.iefferson.wa.us From: Ron Gregory [maDto:buJlder@cablespeed.com] Sent: Wednesday, October 19, 201112:49 PM To: jeffboc(. SUbject: Ofmate Change -- '. The Jefferson County Republican Party does not support the adoption of the proposed UClimate Action PlanA, The Letter from Michelle Sandoval and Commissioner Austin is a flawed perspective ignoring the real problems in Jefferson County. The problems that neither the city or the county have addressed are jobs and budgets in their area of responsibility. If the mayor and commissioner Austin wish to participate in the foolishness that is Aclimate change" that is their optio!\. They have no right to ram an unnecessary, costly pOlicy and regulations to force residents to accept a flawed program promoted by their political alliances! 1012412011 '. -. The Executive Summary in the so called .Climate Action Plan" is the wish list of the no growth county contingent of who I identify as "earth muffins.. The estimates in the Summary are neither acculturate or truthful. The "Summary" is a template of the Kees Koff vision that reasonable people soundly rejected when this so called vision statement first came to light. The Koff treatise was rejected at the front door, so now it has entered through the back door of the county court houSe with the Democrat Commissioners giving their stamp of approval to the ICLEI agenda. i I I- i' 1-- Climate action is a component of the United Nations, Agenda 21. ICLEI is an international organization created by the United Nations to gather local governments around the world to commit to sustainable development. ClaUam County had signed on and paid its annual dues of $1,200.00. Today, the city and Sequim and Clallam county bowed out of ICLEI. One must ask why is Jefferson CoiJnty willing to commit to the United Nations Agenda 21 when our neighbors now say no? Our county commissioners have spent their time and taxpayer money promoting regulations which kill growth and opportunity for Jefferson County. ENOUGH IS ENOUGH III Ron Gregory Port Ludlow - - - ~~.#Uj,.~lrtI~ff!l:~?malI~:~lfta'8~jtIB~I__.-- ~ ..' - - -- -- - ".. :....... , ,- 10/2412011 I ,- ~ . Joanna Sanders i. From: G Brewer PTAW [ptawdlrector@mallhaven.com] Sent: Thursday, October 20. 2011 10:24 AM To: Joanna Sanders Cc: jeffbocc@co.jefferson.wa.us; CltyCouncll Subject; Re: Comments on Draft Climate Action Plan Attachments: Main Sheet PTPC 2009 Reported Emlssrons- TRI and ORCM.xfs; ATTOOOO1.hlm Hello Joanna- Thank you for alerting me. The umeadable graphic was unimportant, a logo. The other, the Report of Toxic ReleaseS for 2009 is PTPC's reported emissions for that year. The comments can stand alone. The Report of Toxic Releases. 2009, is a supplement, intended to provide a lefe1enCe for comparison to other pollution sources evaluated in the report. The information in the chart may be a bit daunting (I tried to lay it out for clarity), so in any regard, I'll be glad to go over it or answer questions about it with any member of the boards or staff. If it's Unreadable, let me know. . For completeness, my comment letter is pasted below, and the 2009 Report of Toxic Releases for PTPC in .xIs format is attached. l- i 1 t ; i. I [ I. i I I, I j. , I I , I I Thanks again for alerting me, and please let me know if it needs to be in another format. GrelIlhen Brewer. DIrector PT A1rWalllhem PO Box 1653. PortTownoondWA98368 360-379-1239 -NOTE NEWEMAlL ADDRESS - CLARIFIES THAT YOU'RE SENDING TO AN INDIVIDUAL - olawdlreclor@mallhll1l8n.com' ptalrwalchers.org On Oct 20, 2011, at 9:30 AM, Joanna Sanders wrote: We received your emall. Unfortunately, only two documents could be opened. One was an unreadable graphic and the other a Report of T oxle Releases for 2009. As you know the comment period ended yesterday. Since we can't eccess what you sent; If you would like to submit wrlttan commant, we will accept it in City Administration Clerk's office (2nd floor) unt115pm today. Joanna Sanders, CMC Deputy City Clerk (360) 379-5083 10/2412011 'j-; , ....... .......; '..., ' , , " , " . :.w "." .' :..~ , , , , , , ' :..., ' ' ."1 ."'. : .', i ..~ . M ." :.' ....f~ : ..., " :'. : , '! . . . ~ ... 1.., , " .... ....i\ , ..., .'. ~ " i :...! ," .'j' ~ .' '; , , .. '..i , ,; ..~ . ~ ... ~" . ":;: : ..., .... t "I .... ~ w . 'j; , ' :..J. .. ;.' .~:: " ' ",. . ..~ . ~ .'. ;... " .....: -....:....._-~~--.... ..', .... ". , [TiT-'-';I[ T~I'; Ililll' !~~ ! l j~1 ! I~ I L11H! I! I! i ;1 II I ;! 1,0' ,,' '-H I I 1 i If- III Ii -I: .-f 11('11 : i '. Ii; I 1,1 l~ ' I ,I ' I ",I, ~ III I! I ' I I 1 'I I !I~l-!J : I ,!-JJ1.1l! I I z ~I'~ ~ I I ! II I , ~-Hi i 1"1-.0 I I I ,~I s;!'fjltil !!lg",I::l:~~5 o ! i ' ~ ~ -g I' !~i i~ ~$~g ~ ~ ~ I, III i ill I I II~i I II I ffi ffi I ~; ~L ~ ! Ig" : I 1111 ~ i! D.. 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"'- 's o@ c:l 01:: 0 U ~ u~.Q ..... \0 r..: 00 '" 0 ...... ...... - ...... ...... <'l <'l "' (j) " Jefferson County/City of Port Townsend Climate Action Committee TO: FROM: DATE: RE: Climate Action Committee Chair Kees Kol~ Zoe Ann Lamp and Judy Surber October 17,2011 Government Leading by Example - Reauthorization of the Climate Action CommitteelRevised Workplan Background: Our original Workplan (adopted by BoCC/CC on January 12, 2009) proposed to develop a Climate Action Plan that included measures to reduce GHG emissions from both the Govermnent Sector and Community Sector. It was acknowledged that this would be an ambitious undertaking. We have successfully completed many of the tasks on our original work plan; however, we have come to recognize the importance of intensive community outreach to gamer support for Community Action. This shift recognizes that encouraging voluntary action in the short-term is more valuable than a detailed set of policies or regulations requiring a formal adoption process that is likely to meet with significant opposition. Recommended Action: We propose 1) Approve and implement the measures for "Govermnent Leading by Example" as soon as possible 2) Adopt Revised Workplan which includes tasking the CAC with facilitating action and launching a Community Outreach Campaign. Given that local government contributes less than 1 % of the emissions - will implementation of the government seetor measures be worthwhUe? ''Local govermnent action has symbolic value that extends beyond the magnitude of emissions reduced. Govermnent action demonstrates the savings potential, ease of implementation, and social value of energy saving measures to the community at-large. When awareness of the issue is raised via targeted and well-publicized efforts, the experience gained by the local govermnent can inform and inspire individual action, leading to substantial community-wide reductions in energy use and greenhouse gas emissions." A recent survey conducted by the City of Portland found that 80% of respondents felt local govermnent leading by example was "very important". Rev. 10-17-11 -1- . Can a public outreach campaign make a difference? Everyone contributes to the problem of climate pollution in a measurable way every day. Educating the public on the causes and effects of climate change and the importance of adopting new habits is essential for citizens to reduce their carbon footprints. Over 17 years ago Portland began working to combat climate change - and as of2008, local carbon emissions were 19 percent below 1990 levels on a per person basis despite rapid population and economic growth. Since 1990, . Portland's recycling rate has tripled . The mnnber of bicyclists crossing bridges has increased five-fold, and . Bus ridership has doubled. Revised Work Plan - Overview: Shifting the focus to Government Leading by Example and Community Outreach: Phase I: 1) Implement "Government Leading By Example" ConservationlEfficiency Measures as recommended by the CAC: These actions measures may be implemented as resources allow. 2) Community Outreach and Engagement - Task the CAC with launching a community engagement campaign which builds on existing efforts, fosters partnerships and develops new initiatives. Raise public awareness, engage community members, promote successes, deliver calls for action, and inspire behavioral change. Phase ll: Climate Action Plan Transportation & Land Use Policy - In coordination with Planning Commission - City/County staff shall review CAC recommend revisions, and make recommend additional amendments, to the Comprehensive Plan and Development Regulatious. (Note: The GMA mandated Comprehensive Plan update has been extended to 2016: ESHB 1478). Phase ill - Climate Change Preparation/Adaptation Plan - Carried over from original workplan. Rev. 10-17-11 -2- ... , " Climate Action Work Plan 2011-2014 Bacmound: In 2009-2010 the Climate Action Committee completed the following tasks: ..J Approve Inventory of 2005 Emissions ..J Set Interim Targets ..J Identified Strategies and Measures to Reduce Emissions from City/County operations "Government Leading by Example" Resource Conservation Manager Position Created (June 2010) - The Interloca1 Agreement Between Jefferson County, the City, PTSD, Chimacum School District, and Fort Worden State Park for RCM Services dated June 14,2010 calls for a full-time equivalent (FTE) to materially reduce operating costs through resource conservation for a period of three years. Duties outlined for this position implement several of the measures to reduce GHG that have been identified by the Climate Action Committee. The RCM is also tasked with assisting the parties in securing additional grant ftmding and rebate programs that support relevant energy efficiency projects. The CAC and RCM will mutnally benefit from close coordination. Climate Action Work Plan 2011-2014 Phase I 1. Implement "Government Leading By Example" (Exhibit *) - Department heads and the Resource Conservation Manager shall be responsible for implementing these actions as resources allow. The potential is bolstered by the recent Interloca1 Agreement Between Jefferson County, the City, PTSD, Chimacum School District, and Fort Worden State Park for Resource Conservation Manager Services dated June 14, 2010 which calls for a full-time equivalent (FTE) to material reduce operating costs through resource conservation for a period of three years. Duties outlined for this position implement several of the measures to reduce GHG that have been identified by the Climate Action Committee. The RCM is also tasked with assisting the parties in securing additional grant ftmding and rebate programs that support relevant energy efficiency projects. The CAC and RCM will mutnally benefit from close coordination. The RCM shall monitor energy use from stationary sources, water and solid waste. Fleet managers shall monitor energy nse from transportation (i.e., fuel nse in vehicles/vehicle miles traveled). Rev. 10-17-11 -3- \ -. 2. Community Outreach and Engagement- The CAC shall launch a community engagement campaign which builds on existing efforts, fosters partnerships and develops new initiatives. Goal: Inspire individual action, leading to substantial community-wide reductions in energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. - Raise public awareness, engage community members, promote successes, deliver calls for action, and inspire behavioral change. With BoCC and City Council approval, the membership of the CAC shall evolve to include representatives from the following: Jefferson County Builders Association - Built Green Jefferson County Public Health - Green Business Local 20/20 - JeffersonCAN RCM The CAC may make additional membership recommendations to further the outreach mission. Partnering with other organizations and interest groups will be imperative for reaching a broader audience. For example, key partners may include government/non-profit/and grass-roots organizations specializing ineducation (e.g., K-I2/WSUlPeninsula College!Goodard College); land conservation, business (e.g., Chamber of CommercelMainStreet); alternative energy, food security, and water resources (e.g., WRlA, PUD). Research has identified a set of tools to promote behavior change: obtaining commitments, using prompts, lrt:ilizing social norms, designing effective communications, providing incentives, and removing external barriers. Depending on the audience and available funding, a variety of outreach materials may be produced (e.g., expanded websites, electronic newsletters, ernai1 messages, brochures, print ads, flyers, and postcards for direct mailings; newspaper articles; workshops, festivals or fairs, curriculum or lesson plans for grades K-12). At a minimum, the CAC shall: . Partner with local media to publish articles and a regnlar newspaper colwnn with information about sustainability and maintain a reference list and links on the website. (B-1.14) . Engage and inspire other public institutions and private businesses to incorporate climate protection action into their daily affairs. Rev. 10-17-11 -4- " ~' . Partner with local non-profits/educational institutions to develop and Jf.?vide classes for clean energy, gardening, agriculture, sustainability skills. 1.15) ResourceslMode1s: htto://www.icleiusaorgfaction-centerllearn-from-others/small-communities- toolkitleducation-and-outreach htto:l/www.skacitcountv.netlCommonlAsu/Default.aso?d=Sustainabilitv&c=General&o= helo.htm 10% Challenge started by the Alliance for Climate Action in Burlington, VT, this program asks participants to commit to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by at least 10%. Keene's program focuses on businesses. htto://www.1 Ot>ercentcha11enge.orgl PHASE II - Climate Action PIan Transportation & Land Use Policy (For Inclusion in the 2016 Comprehensive Plan Updates) In coordination with Planning Commission - City/County staff shall review CAC recommended amendments and may recommend additional amendments to the Comprehensive Plan and Development Regulations. Regulatory amendments requiring amendments to the Comprehensive Plan /Development Regulations are subject to the approval process codified in Jefferson County Code Title 18; Port Townsend Municipal Code Title 20. The process includes public hearings and recommendations by the County/City Planning Commissions. Amendments to be considered may include but are not limited to: . implementing a city and county energy code for commercial and residential construction that exceeds current W A state code (e.g. greater insulation, passive solar, Passive House and small footprints) . For new buildings, site development and substantial remodels, consider establishing a minimum compliance target for LEED Silver or similar level for Built Green (or in another green building standard). · Encourage increased urban density through code revisions for items such as setbacks, height restrictions, cluster and mixed - use development. · Consider further reductions in off-street parking requirements in order to increase density and further promote transportation choices . Increase non-motorized transportation infrastructure by completing Non- Motorized Transportation Plans (NMTP) plans for areas in the county. Rev. 10-17-11 -5- -\ Phase ill - Climate Change Preparation! Adaptation Plan (Year 2012 - Following the 2011 State Plan) This phase involves an eJ<amination of the probable impacts of future climate changes (e.g., increased risk of drought, sea level rise, flooding, forest fires, disease, increased storm damage, and other impacts) and developing strategies to attempt to mimini7.e these impacts. - Key resources: Preparing for Climate Change - A Guidebook for Local, Regional, and State Governments. Rev. 10-17-11 -6- , 4. \/ (!) STATE OF WASHINGTON County of Jefferson City of Port Townsend Joint Resolution of the Board of County Commissioners And the Port Townsend City Council Adopting the Joint City of Port Townsend Jefferson County Climate Action Plan & Approving Revised Climate Change Workplan } } County Resolution No. } City Resolution No. } } } The Board of County Commissioners (BoCe) of Jefferson County Washington and the City Council of Port Townsend Washington do hereby jointly resolve as follows: WHEREAS, a near total consensus of the world's leading climate scientists has concluded that global climate change is occurring and is caused in large measure by the emission of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases from carbon-based fossil fuel use; and WHEREAS, climate change poses a significant threat to our forestry, fisheries, water supplies, and coastal resources and impacts are likely to include flooding, summer droughts, loss of shoreline, forest fires, diminished fish and wildlife habitat, increased storm damage, decreased snow pack, and increased disease vectors and invasive species; and WHEREAS, the impacts of climate change will have far reaching effects on public health, local economies, food production, water supplies, and power production; and WHEREAS, the Intergovermnental Panel on Climate Change estimates that global greenhouse gas emissions must decline 50 to 85 percent from 2000 levels by 2050 to avoid catastrophic climate disruption; and WHEREAS, many jurisdictions throughout the nation, both large and smaIl, are reducing global warming pollution through programs that provide economic and quality of life benefits such as reducing energy bills, preserving green space, implementing better land use polices, improving air quality, promoting waste-to-energy programs, expanding transportation and work choices to reduce traffic congestion, and fostering more economic development and job creation through energy conservation and new technologies; and WHEREAS, Jefferson County and the City of Port Townsend have jointly committed to addressing energy use and climate change, and have made a joint commitment to achieve City Resolutibn 09-_ County Resolution _ -, " a community-wide standard of cutting green house gas emissious to levels 80% lower than 1990 levels by the year 2050 (County Resolution 44-07 and City Resolution 07- 022); and WHEREAS, Jefferson County and the City of Port Townsend appointed a citizen Climate Action Committee in March 2008, charged with developing a Climate Action Plan which would provide recommendatious for achieving a community standard of cutting greenhouse gas emissions to levels 80% lower than 1990 levels by 2050 with preliminmy reduction targets to be set for earlier years; and WHEREAS, the Climate Action Committee, representing a broad range of interests including industry, economic development, education, transportation, power, faith, building, environmental, and other interested members of the public met more than twenty times to review research conducted by staff, brainstorm ideas, receive input from the public, and draft the action plan; and WHEREAS, a series of three public open houses were conducted October 13 - 15, 2008, in Port Townsend, Brinnon, and Chimacum to inform the public of the adopted goal and solicit input on potential measures; and WHEREAS, a Public Discussion Document dated June 9, 2009, was vetted by BOCC and City Council on June 17, 2009. This document was then presented at a series of open house events June 29 - July I, 2009 in Port Townsend, Brinnon, and Chimacum which included informational displays and an audience participation activity. NOW THEREFORE BE IT RESOLVED AND HEREBY ORDERED THAT: Section 1. The Board of County Commissioners and the City Council express their deep appreciation for the time-consuming and detailed work of the Climate Action Committee and staff in development of the Climate Action Plan. Section 2. The Board of County Commissioners and City Council adopt the attached 2011 Jefferson County/City of Port Townsend Climate Action Plan (Exhibit A) and direct their respective staff7resource conservation manager to implement measures for "Government Leading by Example". Section 3. The Board of County Commissioners and City Council approve the Revised Workplan dated September 16, 20ll(Exhibit B, attached) which includes: . Phase I: Implement "Government Leading By Example" & Community Outreach and Engagement . Phase IT: Climate Action Plan Transportation & Land Use Policy . Phase ill: Climate Change Preparation! Adaptation Plan City Resolution 09-_ County Resolution _ -(' , l . Section 4: The term of the Climate Action Committee is hereby extended for the purpose of facilitating action and lannching a Community Outreach Campaign as directed in the Workplan (Section 3 above). This resolution shall become effective upon adoption by the Board of County Commissioners and the City of Port Townsend. APPROVED AND SIGNED THIS day of .2011 SEAL JEFFERSON COUNTY BOARD OF COMMISSIONERS John Austin, Chairman Phil Johnson, Member David Sullivan, Member Attest: Approved as to form: Raina Randall, Deputy Clerk of the Board Jefferson County David W. Alvarez, Chief Civil DPA, Jefferson County APPROVED AND SIGNED THIS day of .2011 Michelle Sandoval, Mayor City of Port Townsend City Resolution 09- _ County Resolution _ -; "\ Attest: Appruved as to form: John P . Watts, City Attorney Pamela Kolacy, MMC, City Clerk City Resolution 09- _ County Resolution _