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HomeMy WebLinkAbout2005 WRIA 17 Watershed Temperature Study1 Quilcene and Chimacum Stream Temperature Analysis WRIA 17 Watershed Temperature Study: Data Collection and Analysis Prepared for: Port Gamble S'Kallam Tribe Jefferson County Washington Department of Ecology 9 PORT GAMBLE S'KLALLAM TRIBE April 7, 2005 Prepared by: JEFFERSON COUNTY CONSERVATION DISTRICT \Nf Watershed Sciences, Inc. Primary Investigators Include: Ted Labbe, Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribe (PGST) Glenn Gately, Jefferson County Conservation District (JCCD) David Christensen, Jefferson County Conservation District (JCCD) Matthew Boyd, Watershed Sciences (WSI) Russ Faux, Watershed Sciences (WSI) Final Quilcene and Chimacum Stream Temperature Analysis Table of Contents Project Description ............................................................................. ..............................1 StudyArea ......................................................................................... ............................... l Fisheries and Aquatic Habitat ............................................................ ............................... 2 ProjectObjectives ............................................................................. ............................... 5 Primary Questions to Be Addressed .................................................. ............................... 6 1. Data Type and Applications - Overview ....................................... ..............................7 1.1 Remote Sensing Data Types ........................................................ ............................... 7 1.2 Ground Level Data Types ........................................................... .............................12 2. Thermal Infrared Radiometry (TIR) Analysis ............................ .............................13 2.1 Methods ...................................................................................... .............................13 2.3 Results ........................................................................................ .............................19 2.3 Big Quilcene River ..................................................................... ............................... 20 2.4 Little Quilcene River .................................................................... .............................26 2.5 Leland Creek ............................................................................. ............................... 30 2.6 Tarboo Creek ............................................................................ ............................... 32 2.7 Chimacum Creek ....................................................................... ............................... 35 2.8 East Chimacum Creek ............................................................... ............................... 40 2.9 Summary of Survey Results ....................................................... ............................... 41 3. LiDAR Data Sampling and Analysis ............................................ .............................43 3.1 Stream Position and Data Nodes ............................................... ............................... 43 3.2 Stream Aspect ........................................................................... ............................... 45 3.4 Topographic Shade ...................................................................... .............................51 3.5 Near Stream Vegetation Height ................................................. ............................... 54 3.6 Historical Vegetation Analysis ................................................... ............................... 69 4. Flow and Temperature Data ......................................................... .............................72 4.1 Continuous Flow Measurements and Derived Flows ................. ............................... 74 4.2 Instantaneous Flow Measurements ............................................ ............................... 78 4.3 Bathymetry Data ........................................................................ ............................... 81 4.4 Continuous Stream Temperature Data ....................................... ............................... 96 4.5 Continuous Atmospheric Data .................... ............................... ............................106 5. Stream Temperature Model .......................... ............................... ............................110 5.1 Model Overview .......................................... ............................... ............................110 5.2 Calibration Methods .................................... ............................... ............................120 5.3 Validation Statistics ................................... ............................... ............................122 5.4 WRIA 17 Stream Temperature Model Scenarios ...................... ............................135 6. Discussion ........................................................ ............................... ............................167 References ........................................................... ............................... ............................170 Table of Figures Figure 1. Historical Summer Chum Escapement (NOAA Fisheries Data) ..................................................... 3 Figure 2. Digital Orthophoto Quads ................................................................................................................. 8 Figure3. TIR Images ....................................................................................................................................... 9 Figure 4. LiDAR data for Little Quilcene River . .......................................................................................... 10 Figure 5. Continuous Temperature and Instantaneous Flow Measurement Sites ............ .............................12 Figure 6. Sensor mount used for the TIR and color video stream surveys . .................................................. 14 Figure 7. WIRA 17/East Jefferson County Study Area .................................................................................. 15 Figure 8. Various Color Maps and True Color Image ................................................................................... 18 Figure 9. Big Quilcene River longitudinal profile sampled from TIR data ..................... .............................20 Figure 10. TIR Image: Big Quilcene River Mouth . ...................................................................................... 22 Figure 11. TIR Image: Big Quilcene River Springs/Seeps (river miles 1.2 and 1.3) ....... .............................23 Figure 12. TIR Image: Big Quilcene River Spring (river miles 1.5 and 2. 1) ................... .............................24 Figure 13. TIR Image: Big Quilcene River Spring (river miles 2.9) ............................. ............................... 25 Figure 14. TIR Image: Big Quilcene River, Unnamed Tributary (river miles 3.2) . ..................................... 25 Figure 15. Little Quilcene River longitudinal profile .................................................................................... 26 Figure 16. TIR Image: Little Quilcene River Mouth ..................................................................................... 28 Figure 17. TIR Image: Little Quilcene River at Leland Creek Confluence (river mile 1.6) .........................29 Figure 18. TIR Image: Little Quilcene River Channel Characteristics (river mile 2.2) ... .............................29 Figure 19. Leland Creek longitudinal profile sampled from TIR data ............................. .............................30 Figure 20. TIR Image: Leland Creek Channel Characteristics (river mile 1.4) ............... .............................31 Figure 21. Tarboo Creek longitudinal profile sampled from TIR data ......................................................... 32 Figure 22. TIR Image: Tarboo Creek at mouth .............................................................................................. 33 Figure 23. TIR Image: Tarboo Creek Channel Characteristics (river miles 0.6 & 1.6) .... .............................34 Figure 24. Chimicum Creek longitudinal profile sampled from TIR data ....................... .............................35 Figure 25. TIR Image: Chimacum Creek at mouth ........................................................................................ 37 Figure 26. TIR Image: Chimacum Creek Channel Characteristics (river mile 1.7) .......... .............................38 Figure 27. TIR Image: Chimacum Creek Channel Characteristics (river mile 2.8) .......... .............................38 Figure 28. TIR Image: Chimacum Creek Channel Characteristics (river mile 5.2) .......... .............................39 Figure 29. TIR Image: Chimacum Creek Channel Characteristics (river mile 8.2) .......... .............................39 Figure 30. East Chimicurn Creek longitudinal profile sampled from TIR data ............... .............................40 Figure 31. TIR Image: East Chimacum Creek Channel Characteristics (river mile 1.0) .. .............................41 Figure 32. LiDAR scene on Big Quilcene River near the Fish Hatchery ..................................................... 43 Figure 33. LiDAR scene on Tarboo Creek. Digitized stream polyline segmented at 25 meter interval provide nodes (blue dots) for sampling spatial data ................................................................................ 44 Figure 34. Stream aspect is calculated by calculating the angle between two stream nodes ......................... 45 Figure 35. Stream and valley aspect, along with absolute divergence between stream and valley aspects...................................................................................................................................................... 46 Figure 36. The procedure for sampling stream elevation involves twenty five discrete samples in a radial pattern to locate the lowest datum ................................................................................................. 48 Figure 37. Stream gradient\t and sinuosity .................................................................................................... 50 Figure38. Topographic Shade Angles .......................................................................................................... 53 Figure 39. Vegetation Sampling Methodology . ............................................................................................ 55 Figure 40. Sampled Vegetation Height - Big Quilcene River (Note Missing LOAR Data) ......................... 56 Figure 41. Sampled Vegetation Height Statistics - Big Quilcene River ....................................................... 57 Figure 42. Sampled Vegetation Height - Little Quilcene River .................................................................... 58 Figure 43. Sampled Vegetation Height Statistics - Little Quilcene River ....................... .............................59 Figure 44. Sampled Vegetation Height - Leland Creek ................................................................................ 60 Figure 45. Sampled Vegetation Height Statistics - Leland Creek ................................................................ 61 Figure 46. Sampled Vegetation Height - Tarboo Creek ................................................................................ 62 Figure 47. Sampled Vegetation Height Statistics - Tarboo Creek ................................................................ 63 Figure 48. Sampled Vegetation Height - Chimacum Creek ............................................. .............................64 Figure 49. Sampled Vegetation Height Statistics - Chimacum Creek ............................. .............................65 Figure 50. Sampled Vegetation Height - East Chimacum Creek .................................... .............................67 Figure 51. Sampled Vegetation Height Statistics - East Chimacum Creek ..................... .............................68 Figure 52. Historical Riparian Vegetation Distribution (PGST Data) ............................. .............................70 Figure 53. Vegetation Species Average Growing Height Based Upon Measured Data in Pacific NorthwestCoastal Areas ............................................................................................ .............................71 Figure 54. Gage Data (Department of Ecology, River and Stream Monitoring, https:H fortress. wa. gov /ecy /wrx/ wrx/flows /station.asp ?sta= 17G060) ...................... ............................... 75 Figure 55. Big Quilcene River: Area Weighted Derived Flows ....................................... .............................76 Figure 56. Little Quilcene River: Area Weighted Derived Flows .................................... .............................76 Figure 57. Tarboo Creek: Area Weighted Derived Flows ................................................ .............................77 Figure 58. Chimacum Creek: Area Weighted Derived Flows ......................................... .............................77 Figure 59. East Chimacum Creek: Area Weighted Derived Flows .................................. .............................78 Figure 60. Instantaneous Flow Monitoring Sites .............................................................. .............................80 Figure 61. Little Quilcene River Bathymetry and Derive Trapezoidal Channel Shapes .............................. 89 Figure 62. Big Quilcene River Bathymetry and Derive Trapezoidal Channel Shapes .. ............................... 90 Figure 63. Tarboo Creek Bathymetry and Derive Trapezoidal Channel Shapes ........... ............................... 91 Figure 64. Chimacum Creek Bathymetry and Derive Trapezoidal Channel Shapes ..... ............................... 93 Figure 65. East Chimacum Creek Bathymetry and Derive Trapezoidal Channel Shapes ............................ 94 Figure 66. Leland Creek Bathymetry and Derive Trapezoidal Channel Shapes ............ ............................... 95 Figure 67. Summary of Maximum 7 -Day Moving Average of Daily Maximums .......... .............................96 Figure 68. Big Quilcene River Continuous Temperature Data and 7 -Day Statistics ....... .............................98 Figure 69. Little Quilcene River Continuous Temperature Data and 7 -Day Statistics .. ............................... 99 Figure 70. Tarboo Creek Continuous Temperature Data and 7 -Day Statistics ............... ............................100 Figure 71. Leland Creek Continuous Temperature Data and 7 -Day Statistics ............... ............................101 Figure 72. Chimacum Creek Continuous Temperature Data and 7 -Day Statistics ......... ............................102 Figure 73. East Chimacum Creek Continuous Temperature Data and 7 -Day Statistics . ............................103 Figure 74. Leland Creek Air Temperature Data Comparison .......... ............................... ............................107 Figure 75. Chimacum Creek Air Temperature Data Comparison .... ............................... ............................108 Figure 76. Port Angeles Relative Humidity and Cloud Cover Data ............................... ............................109 Figure 77. Simulated Heat Transfer Processes: Big Quilcene River at Mouth, August . ............................113 Figure 78. Thermal Infrared Radiometer Data (July 29`", 2004 -2:00 -4:00 PM) ........... ............................117 Figure 79. Little Quilcene Validation Statistics ............................... ............................... ............................123 Figure 80. Little Quilcene Longitudinal Profiles Compared to TIR Data ....................... ............................124 Figure 81. Big Quilcene Validation Statistics .................................. ............................... ............................125 Figure 82. Big Quilcene Longitudinal Profiles Compared to TIR Data .......................... ............................126 Figure 83. Tarboo Creek Validation Statistics ................................. ............................... ............................127 Figure 84. Tarboo Creek Longitudinal Profiles Compared to TIR Data ......................... ............................128 Figure 85. Chimacum Creek Monitoring Sites ................................. ............................... ............................129 Figure 86. Chimacum Creek Validation Statistics (a) ...................... ............................... ............................130 Figure 87. Chimacum Creek Validation Statistics ( b) ...................... ............................... ............................131 Figure 88. Chimacum Creek Longitudinal Profiles Compared to TIR Data ................... ............................132 Figure 89. East Chimacum Creek Validation Statistics ( a) .............. ............................... ............................133 Figure 90. East Chimacum Creek Validation Statistics ( b) .............. ............................... ............................134 Figure 91. East Chimacum Creek Longitudinal Profiles Compared to TIR Data ........... ............................134 Figure 92. Little Quilcene Model Scenarios - Resulting Temperature Changes ............ ............................139 Figure 93. Little Quilcene Model Scenarios - 7 -Day Max Moving Ave of the Daily Max .......................140 Figure 94. Little Quilcene Model Scenarios - Longitudinal Profiles for Model Scenarios ........................141 Figure 95. Big Quilcene Model Scenarios - Resulting Temperature Changes ............... ............................144 Figure 96. Big Quilcene Model Scenarios - 7 -Day Max Moving Ave of the Daily Max ..........................145 Figure 97. Big Quilcene Model Scenarios - Longitudinal Profiles for Model Scenarios ...........................146 Figure 98. Tarboo Creek Model Scenarios - Resulting Temperature Changes .............. ............................149 Figure 99. Tarboo Creek Model Scenarios — 7 -Day Max Moving Ave of the Daily Max .........................150 Figure 100. Tarboo Creek Model Scenarios — Longitudinal Profiles for Model Scenarios ........................151 Figure 101. Chimacum Creek Model Scenarios — Resulting Temperature Changes (a) . ............................157 Figure 102. Chimacum Creek Model Scenarios — Resulting Temperature Changes (b) ............................158 Figure 103a. Chimacum Model Scenarios — 7 -Day Max Moving Ave of the Daily Max ..........................159 Figure 104. Chimacum Model Scenarios — Longitudinal Profiles for Model Scenarios ............................160 Figure 105. East Chimacum Creek Model Scenarios — Resulting Temperature Changes ..........................163 Figure 106. East Chimacum Model Scenarios — 7 -Day Max Moving Ave of the Daily Max (a) ...............164 Figure 107. East Chimacum Model Scenarios — 7 -Day Max Moving Ave of the Daily Max (b) ..............165 Figure 108. East Chimacum Model Scenarios — Longitudinal Profiles for Model Scenarios ....................166 Table of Tables Table 1. Spatial Data Types and Associated Applications ................................................. ..............................7 Table 2. Waterbodies and Extents, and Times TIR Surveyed .......................................... .............................15 Table3. Atmospheric Conditions ...................................................................................... .............................19 Table4. TIR Accuracy Statistics ...................................................................................... .............................19 Table 5. Tributaries, surface springs, and other detected surface inflows ....................... .............................21 Table 6. Little Quilcene River tributaries, surface springs, and other detected surface inflows ...................26 Table 7. Stream Extent Digitized and Segmented into 25 meter Nodes .......................... .............................45 Table 8. Sampled Vegetation Height Statistics - Big Quilcene River .............................. .............................57 Table 9. Sampled Vegetation Height Statistics - Little Quilcene River ........................... .............................59 Table 10. Sampled Vegetation Height Statistics — Leland Creek ..................................... .............................61 Table 11. Sampled Vegetation Height Statistics — Tarboo Creek .................................... .............................63 Table 12. Sampled Vegetation Height Statistics — Chimacum Creek .............................. .............................66 Table 13. Sampled Vegetation Height Statistics — East Chimacum Creek ...................... .............................68 Table 14. Flow and Temperature Monitoring Locations and Site Identification ............. .............................73 Table 15. Instantaneous Flow Monitoring Sites ............................................................... .............................79 Table 16. Fitted Bottom Width and Side Slope Ratios (Z) .............................................. .............................82 Table 17. Seven (7) day moving average daily maximum (7 -day stat) temperatures ...... .............................97 Table 18. Model Validation Statistics .............................................. ............................... ............................122 Table 18. Little Quilcene River - Maximum Temperatures per Model Run ................... ............................137 Table 19. Little Quilcene River — Temperature Changes per Model Run ....................... ............................138 Table 20. Big Quilcene River - Maximum Temperatures per Model Run ...................... ............................142 Table 21. Big Quilcene River — Temperature Changes per Model Run ......................... ............................143 Table 22. Tarboo Creek - Maximum Temperatures per Model Run ............................... ............................147 Table 23. Tarboo Creek — Temperature Changes per Model Run ... ............................... ............................148 Table 24. Chimacum Creek - Maximum Temperatures per Model Run ......................... ............................152 Table 25. Chimacum Creek — Temperature Changes per Model Run ............................ ............................155 Table 24. East Chimacum Creek - Maximum Temperatures per Model Run ................. ............................161 Table 25. East Chimacum Creek — Temperature Changes per Model Run ..................... ............................162 Acknowledgments Ted Labbe from the Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribe (PGST) provided project management and oversight through its Department of Natural Resources, Habitat Program. Ted's leadership and the Tribe's commitment to this project is evident in every phase. Glenn Gately from the Jefferson County Conservation District (JCCD) helped design and implement extensive monitoring for this project. His knowledge of the stream systems, access, and past monitoring proved invaluable to the project. Members of the WRIA 17 /east Jefferson County watershed planning unit helped in scenario development and document review. The Washington Department of Ecology recognized the value of determining flow /temperature relationships and funded the effort with grant # G0400297. Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Project Description The study area is located in the northeat region of the Olympic Peninsula (Washington) and includes: Chimacum Creek, East Chimacum Creek, Big Quilcene River, Little Quilcene River, Leland Creek and Tarboo Creek. Working together under the WRIA 17 /east Jefferson County watershed planning unit, the Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribe (PGST) and Jefferson County Conservation District QCCD) initiated this joint project to monitor and analyze summer stream temperature -flow conditions in these six priority watersheds during 2004. Part of this effort includes data collection to acquire calibrated thermal infrared radiometry (TIR) data in 28.5 miles of stream, collect and compile additional field data (flow, morphology, riparian and temperature), and post - process LiDAR data. These data will serve as primary inputs for hydrodynamic and water temperature models developed to define June to October stream temperature flow relationships. JCCD and PGST lead this overall project (e.g., TIR acquisition and model development/calibration efforts), collaborating with other W 17 PU stakeholders to collect stream flow and temperature ground - truthing data. The Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribe provided project management and oversight through its Department of Natural Resources, Habitat Program. As with any study, identifying analytical objectives and primary questions are important initial steps. The scope of work outlines objectives, based on similar projects in other watersheds and the field knowledge of JCCD and PGST of the target watersheds. The primary objective is to collect data and perform analysis that evaluates flow, morpholog and riparian influence of seasonal temperature patterns. The methods used include remote sensing, data processing and deterministic modeling. All methods are publicly available, open source and peer reviewed, lending a scientific credibility to this effort. Study Area The Quilcene, Chimacum, Leland and Tarboo watersheds are located in Jefferson County, on the northeast portion of the Olympic Peninsula, Washington. These watersheds drain forested and agricultural lands with varying degrees of anthropogenic influences, including: flow reductions and withdrawals, riparian vegetation disturbance and morphology alterations. Study Area Targeted Stream Sections in Red Port 1 Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 1 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Water Usage Surface and subsurface withdrawals are extensive in the study area (WRIA 17, 2003). For example, consumptive water rights total more than 30 cfs on the Big Quilcene River and more than 10 cfs on the Little Quilcene River. In addition, the Quilcene National Fish Hatchery has water rights for 40 cfs from the Big Quilcene River and 25 cfs from Penny Creek, though both volumes are returned to the river downstream from the hatchery. Given that the Big Quilcene 90% exceedance flows in July and August are estimated to be 66 and 36 cfs respectively, the impact of these potential diversions on both physical and thermal habitats is targeted in this study. In addition to large surface water withdrawals, there are also numerous small surface and groundwater withdrawals for single and multi - family domestic use that may impact the stream flow conditions. The alluvial unconfined reaches of the study reaches are connected to shallow groundwater and experience varying levels of hyporheic exchange. The extent of hyporheic influence on surface hydraulics and temperature patterns is often difficult to quantify, along with subsurface hydraulics and thermodynamics. It has been shown that surface and subsurface waters can exhibit a high degree of interrelated temperature behavior in alluvial floodplains (Boyd et al., 2004, Poole and Berman 2001). It is also established that shallow groundwater wells can effectively reduce surface flows in these highly connected floodplains (Poole et al., 2002). Shallow groundwater exchange, both heat and mass, are considered in this study. Fisheries and Aquatic Habitat The study area is home to native coho and chum salmon and sea -run cutthroat and steelhead trout. Chinook and pink salmon also have limited use of the streams in the study area (WRIA 17, 2003). Puget Sound chinook are present in WRIA 17, it is unclear whether native chinook runs still exist in Hood Canal, since this stock has mixed significantly with a variety of supplemented hatchery stocks. Of the streams included in this analysis, summer chum salmon use the Big Quilcene River, the Little Quilcene River and Chimacum Creek. Inconsistent adult chinook returns to the Big Quilcene River and Tarboo Creek are likely comprised of artificially supplemented stocks. Fall chum in the Quilcene Bay and Dabob Bay sub -basins are considered healthy (WRIA 17, 2003). Coho stocks are depressed in Quilcene and Dabob watersheds. Very little is known about winter steelhead populations. General salmonid habitat requirements are described as follows in WRIA 17, 2003: "Each species depends upon adequate freshwater flow and water quality, ample spawning gravels, a functional riparian zone, and instream habitat structures such as large woody debris, large boulders, and pools. All species also depend upon healthy and productive nearshore and estuarine habitats, although chum and chinook salmon tend to rely on these habitats for greater periods of time than do coho [and] steelhead... In the Prepared by Watershed Sciences � � Page 2 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA nearshore and estuarine environments, high salt marsh, eelgrass, and shallow habitats are critical to all species as they make the transition to the marine environment. " Figure 1. Historical Summer Chum Escapement (NOAA Fisheries Data) For the purposes of this study, we compared observed and modeled stream temperatures to proposed Washington State water quality criteria, which were developed to protect salmon and trout thermal habitat needs. The Washington State criteria require that the highest 7 -day average of daily maximum (7- DADMax) water temperatures not exceed 16 °C to protect salmon and trout spawning, rearing, and migration. In addition, a separate threshold of 13 °C applies in select streams with spawning populations of threatened summer chum salmon and other sensitive stocks during the period September 15 to July 1. At the time of this study, these standards had not yet been formally adopted. For more current information, please refer to the Washington Department of Ecology water quality standards website: http: / /www.ecy.wa.goy /programs /wq /swgs /index.html. Local observations indicate that for the Quilcene River system that summer chum salmon spawning occurs between August 15th through October 15t'`, and September lst through October 15th for the Chimacum stream system.' 1 Al Latham, Jefferson County Conservation District, e-mail communication. Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 3 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Salmon & Trout Thermal Needs 16 °C Rearing & Migration All Study Streams All Year Summer Chum Salmon Thermal Needs 16 °C Rearing & Migration All Study Streams July 1St to September 15th 13 ()C Spawning &I ncubation All Study Streams, Excluding East Chimacum September 15th to July 1St Note: The values above are used in this report to assess river temperature in relation to the thermal limits for salmonid life stages. For chum salmon these are not regulatory values. A compelling case can be made for slight variations in the timing of chum salmon life stages. An effort has been made to balance literature /research values with local observations. Human activities and land uses have historically degraded salmon habitat. Some of these activities continue today. Further, future pressures on habitat can be expected by increases in population and development. "Forest practices, agriculture, rural development and shoreline development have had negative effects. For example, timber harvest on state and private forestlands, if not managed properly, can result in reduced riparian habitat and increased sediment loads in streams. These changes can result in higher water temperatures, lack of large woody debris, reduced woody debris recruitment, and smothering of spawning gravels, all of which are detrimental to salmonids" (WRIA 17, 2003). An obvious habitat reduction stems from withdrawing surface water flows. The reduction of both physical and thermal habitats associated with flow reductions is implicated as critical for summertime salmonid uses, such as summer chum salmon. Agricultural land use in the floodplains of many WRIA 17 sub - basins simplify morphology through direct channelization and/or reduced bank stability that alters entrenchment and meandering patterns. Reduced channel complexity is exacerbated by road placement, draining beaver ponds, and removing/disturbing floodplain vegetation. Residential development also reduces riparian function through activities that remove and alter vegetation. Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 4 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA WRIA 17 (2003) notes land use changes that are having positive impacts on habitat quality (as taken directly, page 44): X The US Park Service and US Forest Service lands in WRIA 17 have some of the best habitat conditions in the watershed. The Park Service strives to maintain natural habitats through preservation, and the Forest Service has implemented a Riparian Reserve Program to provide functioning riparian habitat that ensures conifer canopy cover for water temperature control, large woody debris recruitment, streambank stability, and migratory corridors for wildlife species. X Changes to forest practices regulations have improved protection of streams and wetlands. X Agricultural landowners have changed their management techniques and implemented best management practices that improve and protect water quality and fish habitat (Jefferson County Conservation District, 2003). Project Objectives This project is developed to spatially characterize surface water temperatures and stream flow conditions over 28.5 miles of stream, employing thermal infrared radiometry, networks of continuous temperature data loggers and stream flow gages, as well as additional instantaneous flow measurements and miscellaneous habitat data. The following objectives are designed to provide the W 17 PU with a tool for formally relating stream flow to summer to fall water temperature dynamics. The W17 PU intends to use these models to determine acceptable minimum instream flow levels for the purposes of protecting aquatic ecosystems. The data collection and analysis completed in this study may support the future restoration of these streams, all of which are formally listed for temperature on the State of Washington's Clean Water Act 303(d) list of impaired waterbodies. The objectives of the proposed effort are outlined below: • Spatially characterize surface water temperatures and stream flow conditions over 28.5 miles of stream, employing thermal infrared radiometry, networks of continuous temperature data loggers and stream flow gages, as well as additional spot flow measurements and habitat data. • Using other available remote sensing and spatial data, characterize riparian shading patterns, dynamic surface hydraulics, geomorphology, near- stream land cover, and surface and subsurface water exchange patterns. • Integrate collected and compiled data sets into a suite of models to simulate water temperature dynamics in the target streams. • Present the data and overall model to W 17 stakeholders, demonstrating its application to in- stream flow setting scenario development. Train watershed stakeholders in the use and manipulation of the integrated stream temperature - flow models. Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 5 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Primary Questions to Be Addressed • What are the seasonal patterns and spatial distributions of stream temperatures? • How do existing land and water uses affect stream temperatures spatially and temporally? • What are the seasonal and spatial distributions of physical and thermal habitat? • How do stream withdrawals affect physical and thermal habitat? • Some scenarios create only a small temperature increase. Does that mean that it doesn't affect fisheries? • What are primary and secondary influences of land cover upon surface water thermal habitat, as simulated by the model? • Under what conditions can restoration efforts recreate pre - settlement physical and thermal habitats? Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 6 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA 1. Data Type and Applications - Overview 1.1 Remote Sensing Data Types Widely available ground level data sources include continuous temperature data, flow rates (gage and instantaneous data) and stream morphology surveys. While these ground level data are useful, their limited spatial distribution necessitates the development of spatially continuous data. Exclusive use of ground level data forces extrapolation and introduces errors. The widespread use of spatial data is required for a methodology that captures the thermal uniqueness and variability inherent to the study area. Analytical methods rely upon these data to characterize landscape and riverine features and quantify their spatial distributions. Some description of the data sources and methods for derivation is warranted (see the table below). Table 1. Spatial Data Types and Associated Applications Spatial Data Type Application Orthophotography: Map land cover, stream position and morphology LiDAR': Measure valley /channel morphology, land cover height and density Thermal Infrared: Surface water temperatures, direct observation, quantify surface and subsurface inflows 1.1.1 Orthophotography Spatial Data Extracted • Preliminary Stream Mapping Other Uses • Cross -check LiDAR Data A digital orthophoto quad (DOQ) is an aerial photograph digital image (without displacements caused by the camera angle and terrain). DOQs are projected in map coordinates, combining the image characteristics of a photograph with the geometric qualities of a map. Panchromatic DOQs were acquired in 2002 at 1 meter resolution. These photos were used to digitize stream position, data that are then refined with LiDAR bare earth data. It was difficult to distinguish features in Chimacum, Tarboo and Leland Creeks, along with other areas where vegetation obscures the streams. In cases where the stream cannot be visually identified, LiDAR data was the sole dataset used to map stream position. 2 LIDAR is an acronym for Light Detection and Ranging. Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 7 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA DOQs were also used to visually inspect LiDAR data and to identify ground objects (e.g., trees, houses, road grades, etc.). The figure below displays DOQs for the entire study area at various resolutions. Figure 2. Digital Orthophoto Quads (A) Entire Study Area (B) Zoomed to 1:10, 000 scale (C) Zoomed to 1:2, 000 scale (the scale at which stream manning and data sampling is performed) Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 8 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA 1.1.2 Thermal Infrared Radiometry (TIR) Spatial Data Extracted • Longitudinal Temperature Patterns • Groundwater and hyporheic flows • Tributary temperatures • Thermal refugia Thermal infrared radiometry (TIR) data measures the skin water temperature (outermost portion of the water column). Since water is nearly opaque to longer wavelengths (8- l2µ) there is little penetration of the water surface. With a well mixed water column (as occurs in flowing water), TIR effectively measures water column temperature. TIR data is comprised of a digital image of recorded radiation across the full 12 -bit dynamic range. When sampled with aerial platforms the digital imagery maintains a continuous image overlap and less than 0.5 meter pixel. Measured values are directly converted to a temperature from calibration with ground level monitors, matching TIR accuracy with monitoring accuracy (approaching f0.5 0C). TIR data collection is usually timed to capture near maximum daily stream temperatures with sampling occurring longitudinally over the center of the stream channel and the sensor in a vertical position. Figure 3. TIR Images (A) Helicopter platform with TIR System (B) Little Quilcene River ground image (C) TIR data collected at the mouth of the Little Quilcene River. Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 9 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Direct observation of spatial temperature patterns and thermal gradients is a powerful application of TIR derived stream temperature data (Faux et al. 2001). Thermally `interesting' areas can be identified in a longitudinal stream temperature profile and related directly to specific sources (i.e. water withdrawal, tributary confluence, land cover patterns, point sources, etc.). Subsurface flows (i.e. hyporheic, springs, seeps, etc.) are usually apparent, and often dramatic, in TIR data. Major diversions of flow, impoundments and channel modifications also create complex thermal patterns. 1.1.3 LiDAR Spatial Data Extracted • Final Stream Mapping • Stream Gradient • Topographic Shade • Stream Bank Elevation • Vegetation Height Light detection and ranging (LiDAR) offers extremely accurate high - resolution elevation mapping (Dubayah et al., 2000). LiDAR measures multiple light returns to the sensor. Sample point density is a function of light returns to the sensor, but in general, is very dense. The first return (reflected from a surface and received by the sensor) is from the closest object to the sensor (likely the top of vegetation — Raw LiDAR). The last return received by the sensor is usually from the object farthest from the sensor (likely the ground — Bare Earth LiDAR). Although, applications have been somewhat limited to date, LiDAR has been demonstrated to map topographic detail with a high level of accuracy and resolution (Lefsky et al. 2002, Boyd et al., 2004). LiDAR produces very large data sets that are easily sampled in GIS. The use of LiDAR data in this project represents a significant improvement over the methods employed using other elevation and simplified morphology data (Spies et al. 2003). Further, the inclusion of LiDAR data is relatively simple and efficient, given the sampling tools developed for Heat Source and other applications (Boyd and Kasper, 2003). LiDAR data was collected for the entire study area. The LiDAR data was obtained during leaf -off conditions (December - March) in 2002. The UDAR data has point spacing 1.5 m (4.9 ft) with 50% overlapping edges. The bare earth sample density decreases considerably in dense vegetation. Bare earth LiDAR data refers to the lowest return for a sample point, and raw data refers to the highest return for a sample point. Automatic geometric filtering (virtual deforestation, or'VDF') is used for bare earth data development. It is unclear whether this classification is supervised and statistically tested. Documentation supplied with the data does not include vertical or horizontal accuracy statistics. Figure 4. LiDAR data for Little Quilcene River. Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 10 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA 1:1,000 scene in plan view, oblique bare ground and first return data Raw data points first return and bare earth data) were used to generate a triangulated irregular network (TIN) dataset that interpolates elevations between sample points.3 A one meter first return and bare earth GRID data sets was then developed from the TIN. All data extraction sampled the GRID data. (A) Topo shaded first return data (B) Bare Earth Data (C) First Return Data •....... Shade Relief .,._ 3 A triangulated irregular network (TIN) is a surface representation derived from irregularly spaced points with x, y coordinates and a z value and break line features. Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 11 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA 1.2 Ground Level Data Types 1.2.1 Flow Data PGST and JCCD collected flow data from numerous locations, as shown in the figure below. Measurements were taken during a low flow condition in the last week of July, 2004. 1.2.2 Temperature Data PGST and JCCD collected continuous temperature data from numerous locations, as shown in the figure below. Hourly measurements were taken from May to October, 2004. Figure 5. Continuous Temperature and Instantaneous Flow Measurement Sites Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 12 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA 2. Thermal Infrared Radiometry (TIR) Analysis Survey Date: July 29, 2004 Working together under the WRIA 17 /east Jefferson County watershed planning unit, Watershed Sciences, Inc., the Jefferson County Conservation District, and the Port Gamble S'Kallam Tribe embarked on a joint project to monitor and model summer stream temperature -flow conditions in six priority watersheds during 2004. As part of this study, airborne thermal infrared (TIR) data were collected on 28.5 miles of stream. The TIR images provide information about spatial stream temperature variability and can illustrate changes in the interacting processes that determine stream temperature. In most cases, these processes are extremely difficult to detect and quantify using traditional ground -based monitoring techniques. The imagery and derived data generated from the TIR are contained in an associated geographic information system (GIS) database. This report provides a detailed description of the work performed, including methodology and quantitative assessments of data quality. In addition, the report presents and discusses the spatially continuous longitudinal temperature profiles derived from the imagery. These profiles describe how temperatures vary along the stream gradient and are the basis for the follow -on modeling effort. Sample images are also contained in this document. The images illustrate some of the thermal features, channel characteristics, and hydrologic processes discussed in the report. The images are not meant to be comprehensive, but provide examples of image scenes and interpretations contained in the database associated with this report. 2.1 Methods 2.1.1 Data Collection Instrumentation: Images were collected with TIR (8 -12µ) and visible -band cameras attached to a gyro - stabilized mount on the underside of a helicopter. The two sensors were aligned to present the same ground area, and the helicopter was flown longitudinally along the stream channel with the sensors looking straight down. Thermal infrared images were recorded directly from the sensor to an on -board computer in a format in which each pixel contained a measured radiance value. The individual images were referenced with time and position data provided by a global positioning system (GPS). Flight Parameters: The streams included in this study were surveyed at a target altitude of 1200 ft above ground level (AGL). The flight altitude was selected to provide a relatively high spatial resolution in the channel while still capturing side channels and meander bends. With the exception of Leland Creek, all streams were flown in the upstream direction. Leland Creek was surveyed downstream from Leland Lake to its mouth. Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 13 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble.S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Figure 6. Sensor mount used for the TIR and color video stream surveys. Image Characteristics: Images were collected sequentially with 40% or greater vertical overlap. The surveys in the east Jefferson County were conducted at 1200 ft above ground level, presenting a ground width of approximately 130 meters with a spatial resolution of ---0.4 meters. Ground Control: Watershed Sciences deployed in- stream data loggers prior to the flight in order to ground truth (i.e. verify the accuracy of) the TIR data. The data loggers were placed at access points throughout the watershed with at least one instrument deployed in each surveyed stream. The distribution of the in- stream data loggers allowed for checking radiant temperatures at regular intervals over the duration of the survey. Meteorological data including air temperature and relative humidity were recorded in the basin using a portable weather station (Onset) located at the Jefferson County International Airport. Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 14 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA 2.1.2 Study Area Figure 7. WIRA 17/East Jefferson County Study Area Table 2. Waterbodies and Extents, and Times TIR Surveyed Ntime uilcene R. Extent Mouth to Elbow Creek River Miles 6.4 Time 24111- 13:56 -14:13 -Big Little Quilcene R. Mouth to Dry Creek 6.9 14:18 -14:35 Leland•Cr. Leland Lake to Mouth 4.3 14:38 -14:55 Tarboo Cr. Mouth to Headwaters 6.4 14:58 -15:15 Chimacum Cr. Mouth to Town of Center 9.3 16:04 -16:27 E Chimacum Cr. Mouth to Headwaters 6.2 16:32 -16:46 Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 15 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA 2.1.3 Data Processing Calibration: Measured radiance values contained in the raw TIR images were converted to temperatures based on the emissivity of water, atmospheric transmission effects, ambient background reflections, and the calibration characteristics of the sensor. The atmospheric transmission value was modeled based on the air temperatures and relative humidity recorded at the time of the survey. The radiant temperatures were then compared to the kinetic temperatures measured by the in- stream data loggers. The in- stream data were assessed at the time the image was acquired, with radiant values representing the median of ten points sampled from the image at the data logger's location. Calibration parameters were fine -tuned to provide the most accurate fit between the radiant and kinetic temperatures. Interpretation and Sampling_ Once calibrated, the images were integrated into a GIS in which an analyst interpreted and sampled stream temperatures. Sampling consisted of querying radiant temperatures (pixel values) from the center of the stream channel and saving the median value of a ten -point sample to a GIS database file. The temperatures of detectable surface inflows (i.e. surface springs, tributaries) were also sampled at their mouth. In addition, data processing focused on interpreting spatial variations in surface temperatures observed in the images. Geo- referencing: The images are tagged with a GPS position at the time they are acquired. Since the TIR camera is maintained at vertical down -look angles, the geographic coordinates provide an accurate index to the location of the image scene. Due to the relatively small footprint of the imagery and independently stabilized mount, image pixels are not individually registered to real world coordinates. In order to provide further spatial reference, the TIR images were assigned a river mile based on a routed stream layer. Temperature Profiles: The median temperatures for each sampled image were plotted versus the corresponding river mile to develop a longitudinal temperature profile. The profile illustrates how stream temperatures vary spatially along the stream gradient. The location and median temperature of all sampled surface water inflows (e.g. tributaries, surface springs, etc.) are included on the plot to illustrate how these inflows influence the main stem temperature patterns. Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 16 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA 2.2 Thermal Image Characteristics Surface Temperatures: Thermal infrared sensors measure TIR energy emitted at the water's surface. Since water is essentially opaque to TIR wavelengths, the sensor is only measuring water surface temperature. Thermal infrared data accurately represents bulk water temperatures where the water column is thoroughly mixed; however, thermal stratification can form in reaches that have little or no mixing. Thermal stratification in a free flowing river is inherently unstable due to variations in channel shape, bed composition, and in- stream objects (i.e. rocks, trees, debris, etc.) that cause turbulent flow and can usually be detected in the imagery. Occurrences of thermal stratification interpreted during analysis are identified in the results section for each survey. Expected Accuracy Thermal infrared radiation received at the sensor is a combination of energy emitted from the water's surface, reflected from the water's surface, and absorbed and re- radiated by the intervening atmosphere. Water is a good emitter of TIR radiation and has relatively low reflectivity (— 4 to 6 %). During calibration, a correction is included to account for average background reflections. However, variable water surface conditions (i.e. riffle versus pool), slight changes in viewing aspect, and variable background temperatures (i.e. sky versus trees) can result in differences in the calculated radiant temperatures within the same image or between consecutive images. The apparent temperature variability is generally less than 0.6 °C (Torgersen et al. 2001). However, the occurrence of reflections as an artifact (or noise) in the TIR images is a consideration during image interpretation and analysis. In general, apparent stream temperature changes of < 0.6 °C are not considered significant unless associated with a surface inflow (e.g. tributary). Differential Heatins: In stream segments with flat surface conditions (i.e. pools) and relatively low mixing rates, observed variations in spatial temperature patterns can be the result of differences in the instantaneous heating rate at the water's surface. In the TIR images, indicators of differential surface heating include seemingly cooler radiant temperatures in shaded areas compared to surfaces exposed to direct sunlight. Shape and magnitude distinguish spatial temperature patterns caused by tributary or spring inflows from those resulting from differential surface heating. Unlike with thermal stratification, surface temperatures may still represent bulk water conditions if the stream is mixed. Feature Size and Resolution: A small stream width logically translates to fewer pixels "in" the stream and greater integration with non -water features such as rocks and vegetation. Consequently, a narrow channel (relative to the pixel size) can result in higher inaccuracies in the measured radiant temperatures (Torgersen et. al. 2001). In some cases, small tributaries were detected in the images, but not sampled due to the inability to obtain a reliable temperature sample. Temperatures and Color Maps: The TIR images collected during this survey consist of a single band. As a result, visual representation of the imagery (in a report or GIS Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 17 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA environment) requires the application of a color map or legend to the pixel values. The selection of a color map should highlight features most relevant to the analysis (i.e. spatial variability of stream temperatures). For example, a continuous, gradient style color map that incorporates all temperatures in the image frame will provide a smoother transition in colors throughout the entire image, but will not highlight temperature differences in the stream. Conversely, a color map that focuses too narrowly cannot be applied to the entire river and will "washout' ' terrestrial and vegetation features. The method used to select a color map for the report images attempts to accomplish both. The map is based on using discrete colors to represent the range of water temperatures observed during the analysis based on 1 °C or 0.5 °C increments and a linear gray scale to represent temperatures above the maximum observed water temperature. The images below provide an example of three different color maps applied to the same thermal image. Figure 8. Various Color Maps and True Color Image Prepared by Watershed Sciences � � � � � �� ��� Page 18 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis fort Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA 2.3 Results 2.3.1 Weather Conditions Table 3. Atmospheric Conditions 7129104 at Je erson County International Airport 13:30 80.8 27.1 47.4 14:00 80.1 26.7 46.9 14:30 81.5 27.5 45.8 15:00 81.5 27.5 43.3 15:30 1 81.5 27.5 43.8 16:00 81.5 27.5 45.8 16:30 78.0 25.6 48.9 17:00 77.3 25.2 51.5 2.3.2 Thermal Accuracy The table below summarizes a comparison between the kinetic temperatures recorded by the in- stream data loggers and the radiant temperatures derived from the TIR images. At some points, the table shows readings for the same sensor location at different times of the day. These sensors were flown over on surveys of different streams due to the proximity to both streams (e.g. near confluences). Multiple passes allowed additional verification at different times of the day. Table 4. TIR Accuracy Statistics Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 19 Big uilcene River Av . Abs. Di . = 0.3 °C ui10116 14:00 0.4 17.7 17.3 0.4 ui10286 14:06 2.6 16.5 16.4 0.1 ui10466 14:12 5.7 12.7 13.1 -0.4 Little Quilcene River /Leland Creek Av . Abs. Di . = 0.1 °C 1 u0104 14:22 0.8 18.4 18.4 0.0 le 0079 14:41 3.1 21.5 21.3 0.2 le 0383 14:54 0.8 18.6 18.8 -0.2 Tarboo Creek (Avg. Abs. Di . = 0.2 °C tar0091 15:02 1 0.7 1 17.1 16.9 0.2 tar0247 15:08 1 3.2 15.0 15.1 -0.1 Chimacum /East Chimacum Creeks Av . Abs. Di . = 0.0°C chim0197 16:11 2.1 18.7 18.7 0.0 chim0517 16:21 7.0 15.9 16.0 -0.1 echm03O6 16:42 4.4 15.8 15.8 0.0 Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 19 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA The average absolute temperature accuracies were within the desired accuracy of f0.5 0C. The range of temperature differences was also consistent with those observed during other surveys conducted in the region over the past six years. 2.3 Big Quilcene River 2.3.1 Longitudinal Temperature Profile The figure below illustrates the median sampled temperatures plotted versus river mile for the Quilcene River from the mouth to Elbow Creek (river mile 6.4). Tributaries and other sampled inflows (i.e. springs /seeps) are labeled on the profile by river mile and summarized in the associated table. 19 v 18 a� m m 17 L m 16 a E m m 15 .r ca 14 3 y 13 12 Figure 9. Big Quilcene River longitudinal profile sampled from TIR data O O O ti CO LO d' M N O r r Distance From Mouth (KM) Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 20 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Table 5. Tributaries, surface springs, and other detected surface inflows Tributary Hatchery Return (LB) qui10294 4.3 2.7 16.1 16.3 -0.2 Unnamed (LB) qui10297 4.4 2.7 15.4 16.3 -0.9 Unnamed (RB) qui10326 5.2 3.2 14.9 15.1 -0.2 Spring Spring (LB) quil0161 1.6 1.0 15.9 17.2 -1.3 Spring (RB) qui10182 2.0 1.2 13.4 16.9 -3.5 Spring (RB) qui10187 2.1 1.3 15.7 17.6 -1.9 Spring (LB) qui10210 2.3 1.5 12.8 17.1 -4.3 Spring/Seep (LB) quil0250 3.3 2.1 15.7 16.3 -0.6 Spring (RB) qui10253 3.4 2.1 14.6 16.7 -2.1 Spring (RB) quil0308 4.6 2.9 13.5 15.7 -2.2 2.3.2 Observations and Analysis Water temperatures in the Big Quilcene River exhibited an overall downstream warming trend gaining -5.2 °C (12.5 °C -> 17.7 °C) over the surveyed extent. However, within this general pattern, the Big Quilcene showed a high degree of local thermal spatial variability. The local variability was due to a number of factors occurring along the stream gradient. Between river mile 6.0 and 4.0, the Big Quilcene River flowed through a relatively confined canyon and stream temperatures showed a consistent increase from - 12.5 °C to - 14.6 °C. Two tributary inflows were detected in this reach (miles 4.5 and 4.6), but were not sufficiently visible to obtain an accurate temperature sample. From river mile 4.0 to 3.6, stream temperatures remained relatively consistent (- 14.6 °C) before increasing to - 16.0 °C at river mile 3.3. Inspection of the imagery illustrated a clear shift in channel morphology at river mile 3.6 from a relatively confined channel with immediate riparian vegetation to more complex channel morphology with gravel bars and often multiple channel paths. The relatively sharp increase in temperatures at this location indicates a corresponding alteration in the thermodynamic processes that govern stream heating. At river mile 3.2, an unnamed tributary contributes cooler water (14.9 °C) to the Big Quilcene River and lowers main stem temperatures by - 0.9 °C. Downstream of this tributary, seven spring inflows were detected, which contributed to localized temperature differences in the stream. The springs varied in size and generally emerged from the channel substrate suggesting the influence of hyporheic flow processes on local temperature patterns (reference sample images). Smaller inflows were named "spring/seeps" in this report and in the associated database to distinguish them from larger, more distinct inflows. Multiple surface inflows were detected and sampled Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 21 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA around the fish hatchery at river mile 2.7. The outflow of the hatchery was distinct in the imagery; however, the origin of a cooler side channel along the left bank near the hatchery (classified as an unnamed tributary) was less distinct. 2.3.3 Sample Images The following pages contain images from the survey of the Quilcene River including a brief discussion. Figure 10. TIR Image: Big Quilcene River Mouth. The image pair above shows the mouth of Quilcene River at Quilcene Bay. The Quilcene River was 18.0 °C while Quilcene Bay varied from 21°C to 24°C. Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 22 Quilcene and Chmacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Figure 11. TIR Image: Big Quilcene River Springs /Seeps (river miles 1.2 and 1.3). The image pairs above show the locations of springs /seeps at river miles 1.2 (top) and 1.3 (bottom). The spring in the top image is easily detected due to its cooler temperature, but riparian vegetation and visible shadows make it difficult to determine its source. The spring in the bottom image clearly emerges from the gravel bar at the downstream end of the bend in the river. Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 23 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Figure 12. TIR Image: Big Quilcene River Spring (river miles 1.5 and 2.1). The image pairs above illustrate the springs detected at river miles 1.5 (top) and 2.1 (bottom). In both cases, the cool water emerges on the downstream end of perennial side channels indicating that these channels are important pathways for sub - surface flow during the summer months. Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 24 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA The image pair above shows the location of a spring on the right bank of the Big Quilcene River at river mile 2.9. The image pair above shows the confluence of an unnamed tributary (14.9 °C) on the right bank of the Big Quilcene River at river mile 3.2. The tributary, which originates on the NW slope of Mt. Walker, is a cooling source to the Big Quilcene River. Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 25 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA 2.4 Little Quilcene River 2.4.1 Longitudinal Temperature Profile The figure below illustrates the median sampled temperatures plotted versus river mile for the Little Quilcene River from the mouth to Dry Creek (river mile 6.9). Tributaries are labeled on the profile by river mile and summarized in the table below. Figure 15. Little Quilcene River longitudinal profile. 22 21 U 20 19 T) 18 0 17 CL E 16 H 15 m 14 a� 13 U) 12 11 ill ■ 9.s -+- Little Quilcene River ■ Tributary ■ 4.4 N r O O O P CO Cn � M N O T ! T Distance From Mouth (mile) Table 6. Little Quilcene River tributaries, surface springs, and other detected surface inflows Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 26 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA 2.4.2 Observations and Analysis The Little Quilcene River was heavily canopied through much of the survey extent. Despite the canopy, surface water was visible at regular intervals, which allowed for almost continuous sampling of radiant temperatures and creation of the longitudinal temperature profile. However, the canopy masked the edges of the stream and made it difficult to detect and sample tributaries and other surface inflows. Only two surface inflows were detected during the analysis of the Little Quilcene River. Both were relatively small and contributed water that was cooler than the main stream. Mapped tributaries such as Leland Creek, Howe Creek, and Ripley Creek were not visible at their confluence with the Little Quilcene. At the upstream end of the survey, water temperatures in the Little Quilcene River were relatively cool (13.0°C at mile 6.8) and warmed downstream to 14.6 °C by mile 5.2. Between mile 5.2 and 5. 1, water temperatures exhibited a sharp apparent increase of — 1.5 °C. Inspection of the imagery and topographic base maps showed that Howe Creek enters the Little Quilcene at this location, but was not visible through the forest canopy. The dramatic increase in water temperatures at this location suggests a thermal response to the inflow of Howe Creek, although this could not be verified. Downstream of the Howe Creek confluence, water temperatures continued to increase reaching — 18.0 °C at river mile 3.1. The longitudinal profile illustrated some local thermal variations. However, these variations were at or just above the noise levels typically associated with TIR remote sensing (i.e. t0.5 °C) and possible sources of variability could not be identified from the imagery. Moving downstream, water temperatures decreased by —1.2 °C between river miles 3.2 and 2.6 and remained relatively consistent (f0.4 °C) to mile 1.9. Inspection of the topographic base maps shows that this change in the temperature pattern begins as the Little Quilcene emerges from the canyon and continues to the confluence of Leland Creek (mile 1.6). A small, unnamed tributary was sampled at mile 2.7 and contributed cooler water to the main stream. However, the overall change in the downstream heating rate suggests a thermal response to the change in morphology possibly associated with some sub - surface discharge. From river mile 1.6 (confluence of Leland Creek), stream temperatures increased steadily reaching — 19.2 °C at Quilcene Bay. Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 27 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA 2.4.3 Sample Images Figure 16. TIR Image: Little Quilcene River Mouth The image pair above shows the mouth of the Little Quilcene River and Quilcene Bay. The temperature of the Little Quilcene was 20.3 °C while Quilcene Bay's temperature ranged from 24.5 °C to 26.5 °C. Prepared by Watershed Sciences � ��� � � Page 28 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Figure 17. TIR Image: Little Quilcene River at Leland Creek Confluence (river mile 1.6) The image pair above shows the confluence of the Little Quilcene River (17.7 °C) and Leland Creek. Riparian canopy masked the mouth of Leland Creek, which prevented the sampling of radiant temperatures at this location. Figure 18. TIR Image: Little Quilcene River Channel Characteristics (river mile 2.2) The image pair above shows characteristics of the Little Quilcene River at river mile 2.2. The riparian canopy masked much of the stream surface. The stream surface was visible at regular intervals, which allowed temperature sampling. However, the small size of the stream, combined with the riparian canopy made it difficult to detect other surface inflows and to assess channel characteristics. Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 29 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble YKlallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA 2.5 Leland Creek 2.5.1 Longitudinal Temperature Profile The figure below illustrates the median sampled temperatures plotted versus river mile for Leland Creek from Leland Lake (river mile 4.3) to the mouth. There were no tributaries or surface inflows sampled during the analysis of Leland Creek. 27 26 v 25 v► d 24 d .�. 23 L 6.22 E 21 L d 3 20 19 18 17 16 Figure 19. Leland Creek longitudinal profile sampled from TIR data -* Leland Creek 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 t� W to M N O Distance From Mouth (KM) 2.5.2 Observations and Analysis The TIR survey of Leland Creek started at the outlet of Leland Lake. The surface temperature of the lake was warm (- 26.1 °C), but there is evidence in the TIR imagery that the lake is thermally stratified with cooler water at deeper depths. However, Leland Creek flows from the surface of the lake and its initial temperatures are consistent with the lake's surface. Surface water was only visible for —0.1 miles downstream of the lake before the creek disappeared into a meadow /marsh (mile 4.1). Moving downstream, surface water in Leland Creek was visible again closer to the downstream end of the marsh, near Hwy 101 at mile 3.3. At this point, surface water temperatures were — 19.6 °C, but increased sharply downstream reaching 22.8 °C at mile Prepared by Watershed Sciences m Page 30 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA 3.0. At mile 3.0, the surface water again disappeared into a meadow /marsh. While the channel location was evident in the imagery, the stream had little or no visible surface water between miles 3.0 and 2.3. From mile 2.3 to the Little Quilcene confluence, Leyland Creek was small (relative to pixel size) and often difficult to detect through the forest canopy. Consequently, radiant temperatures were sampled at irregular intervals over this reach. The samples that were acquired showed that stream temperatures ranged between 18.9 °C and 19.9 °C with no definitive pattern of heating or cooling. 2.5.3 Sample Images Figure 20. TIR Image: Leland Creek Channel Characteristics (river mile 1.4) The image pair above shows a portion of Leland Creek at river mile 1.4 with characteristic channel conditions for the stream, including intermittent water and heavy canopy. Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 31 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA 2.6 Tarboo Creek 2.6.1 Longitudinal Temperature Profile The figure below illustrates the median sampled temperatures plotted versus river mile for Tarboo Creek from the mouth to the headwaters (river mile 6.4). No tributaries or other surface inflows were sampled during the analysis of Tarboo Creek. Figure 21. Tarboo Creek longitudinal profile sampled from TIR data 21 -•- Tarboo Creek 20 0 0019 V 3 18 ca L L 17 E as L 16 d w 3 15 d 14 N 13 12 1 �--- 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Distance From Mouth (mile) 2.6.2 Observations and Analysis Surface water was intermittent in Tarboo Creek throughout most of the survey extent. The combination of small stream channel, intermittent surface water, riparian canopy, and generally low terrain relief presented operational challenges in following Tarboo Creek. The survey was maintained through detection of the channel in the imagery and course adjustments from a digital moving map display. Only one radiant temperature sample was taken between river miles 6.0 and 3.8 due to an inability to detect the stream surface through the forest canopy. In general, when the TIR sensor is looking vertically down (i.e. at NADIR), the stream surface is detected intermittently through the forest canopy. This is true even on very small streams. Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 32 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA However, the surface of Tarboo Creek was rarely detected in the upper two miles, suggesting the combination of a very reduced (or non - existent) surface flow with heavy riparian canopy. When the stream was detected, such as the two samples at miles 3.8 and 3.7, the visible channel was very narrow. Surface water was progressively more detectable downstream of mile 2.8 and water temperatures exhibited a general downstream warming trend. 2.6.3 Sample Images Figure 22. TIR Imager Tarboo Creek at mouth The image pair above shows the mouth of Tarboo Creek, with the main stem temperature ranging from 20.3 °C to 17.7 °C just upstream of the mouth. Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 33 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Figure 23. TIR Image: Tarboo Creek Channel Characteristics (river miles 0.6 & 1.6) The image pairs above show typical channel characteristics of a small channel and heavy canopy at river mile 0.6 (top) and a wet grass channel at river mile 1.6 (bottom). The canopy and apparent lack of surface flow through some reaches made it difficult to continuously map temperature patterns in Tarboo Creek. Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 34 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA 2.7 Chimacum Creek 2.7.1 Longitudinal Temperature Profile The figure below illustrates the median sampled temperatures plotted versus river mile for Chimacum Creek from the mouth to the city of Center (river mile 9.3). Only one unnamed tributary (mile 9.3) was sampled during the analysis of Chimacum Creek. Figure 24. Chimicum Creek longitudinal profile sampled from TIR data `ZI 23 m22 CD �o m 21 .r m 20 CL E 19 H 18 m 17 16 15 14 -•- Chimacum Creek --m-Tributary j CC 0 It M N O O O 1- CO O d M N V- O r r r r r r �- Distance From Mouth (KM) 2.7.2 Observations and Analysis At the upstream of the survey (mile 9.3), water temperatures in Chimacum Creek were - 16.0 °C. The survey ended at a point where the creek channel appeared as a ditch flowing from the west and was joined by another ditch from the south. The southern ditch was classified as a tributary and was considerably warmer (23.1 °C) than Chimacum Creek. Below the ditch (mile 9.3), the creek enters a wooded area where it was largely masked by the riparian canopy. At the upstream end of the wooded area, the stream was still visible through the canopy, allowing some temperature samples. At the downstream end Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 35 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA (mile 8.8), the stream channel enters a field/meadow where surface water was only intermittently visible. In this reach, the visible surface water generally occurred at impoundments such as dams and road crossings. The relatively cool water temperatures ( <16.7 °C) at sampled locations suggest that there is some sub - surface flow through the channel that is forced to the surface at the impoundments. Although occasionally masked by riparian canopy, the surface water in Chimacum Creek was visible again between miles 7.2 and 4.2 allowing temperature sampling at regular intervals along the stream gradient. Through this reach, stream temperatures overall increased from — 15.9 °C (mile 6.9) to 21.6 °C (mile 4.2). Within this reach, a variation in the prevailing temperature trend was observed between miles 6.4 -> 5.4 where temperatures were relatively consistent (- 17.4 °C). From mile 4.2 to 3.8, Chimacum Creek is a straightened ditch with very little visible surface water. No temperature samples were obtained through this reach. Near the town of Chimacum, surface water was again visible and temperatures had cooled slightly from upstream areas suggesting some sub - surface recharge to the channel at this location. Surface water was intermittently visible through a wooded area downstream of the town of Chimacum, but disappeared again near the confluence of East Chimacum Creek at mile 3.3. Surface water was again visible at mile 2.4 where radiant temperatures were measured at 18.4 °C. Water temperatures in Chimacum Creek remained between 18.4 °C and 19.2 °C in the lower 2.4 miles with no definitive warming or cooling trend. Prepared by Watershed Sciences �� ��� Page 36 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA 2.7.3 Sample Images Figure 25. TIR Image: Chimacum Creek at mouth The image pair above shows the mouth of Chimacum Creek with the water temperatures increasing from 18.7 °C to 19.6 °C at the mouth. Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 37 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Figure 26. TIR Image: Chimacum Creek Channel Characteristics (river mile 1.7) The image pair above shows Chimacum Creek at river mile 1.7 which made a regulated sampling interval difficult. The images are an example of how the riparian canopy masked the stream channel in wooded areas along the creek. Figure 27. TIR Image: Chimacum Creek Channel Characteristics (river mile 2.8) The image pair above shows stream channel of Chimacum Creek at river mile 2.8. The channel location is obvious in the TIR image due to cooler grass /vegetation. However, there is not visible surface water, so the stream was not sampled in this reach. Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 38 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Figure 28. TIR Image: Chimacum Creek Channel Characteristics (river mile 5.2) The image pair above shows the channel of Chimacum Creek at river mile 5.3. The image illustrates general conditions through much of the open meadow reaches in Chimacum Creek. Figure 29. TIR Image: Chimacum Creek Channel Characteristics (river mile 8.2) The image pair above shows an in- stream barrier at river mile 8.6. In this reach, surface water was generally only visible below or above impoundments in the stream. Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 39 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA 2.8 East Chimacum Creek 2.8.1 Longitudinal Temperature Profile The figure below illustrates the median sampled temperatures plotted versus river mile for East Chimacum Creek from the mouth to the headwaters (river mile 6.2). No tributaries or other surface inflows were detected during the survey of East Chimacum Creek. Figure 30. East Chimicum Creek longitudinal profile sampled from TIR data 24 23 v 22 as a 21 20 19 CL E 18 H m 17 w eo 16 d 4 15 to 14 13 12 -♦- East Chimacum Creek I I*- O LO V M N r O Distance From Mouth (mile) 2.8.2 Observations and Analysis Although the TIR survey followed the full length of East Chimacum Creek, the stream surface was very small and radiant temperature samples were taken at irregular intervals. Only 15 temperature samples were acquired over the lower 4.2 miles. Of these, nine samples (all upstream of river mile 0.8) were less than 16.7 °C. These relatively cool temperatures suggest that the surface water visible in the imagery was predominately due to sub - surface recharge from within the channel. In general, the channel characteristics and spatial temperature response were similar to those observed in Chimacum Creek. Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 40 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA 2.8.3 Sample Image Figure 31. TIR Image: East Chimacum Creek Channel Characteristics (river mile 1.0) The image pair on the left shows a section of East Chimacum Creek where the channel consists primarily of wet grass at river mile 1.0. The channel condition illustrated above was characteristic of this stream. 2.9 Summary of Survey Results The size and intermittent surface flow observed in Leland Creek, Tarboo Creek, and East Chimacum Creek presented operational challenges, since these streams were often difficult to follow in low relief, heavily canopied areas. However, the TIR survey proceeded using the thermal imagery and digital maps to find the channel and was ultimately successful in mapping spatial temperature patterns. Radiant temperatures derived from the imagery were consistent with the target accuracy of t0.5 0C when compared to the in- stream data loggers. The Big and Little Quilcene Rivers were the only streams with visible continuous surface flow (i.e., detected in the TIR data) throughout the surveyed extent. On the Big Quilcene, a number of cold springs and seeps were detected within the hyporheic zone suggesting that sub - surface discharge within this zone is an important component of the thermal structure of the lower Big Quilcene River. The Little Quilcene River was smaller and did not have the large alluvial gravel bars noted in the lower reaches of the Big Quilcene. Consequently, no identifiable sub - surface discharges were observed in this stream. However, the longitudinal temperature profile of the Little Quilcene River illustrates Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 41 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA thermal response to surface inflows and shifts in the downstream heating rates associated with transitions in morphology. The other streams surveyed each had reaches with intermittent surface flow. The TIR imagery illustrated thermal response to the surface/sub-surface exchanges that occurred along the stream course. However, the occurrence of the surface water was often isolated over relatively short (e.g. less than 1 mile) segments. Although intermittent flow and masking of the stream surface by riparian vegetation resulted in often irregular sampling intervals, enough temperature samples were obtained to provide a reasonable representation of how temperatures vary along the stream gradient. In addition, color video and TIR images provide a snap shot of stream and channel conditions during the heat of the summer. This report presents the spatial temperature patterns derived from the TIR imagery and offers some hypotheses on the processes influencing spatial temperature patterns. These hypotheses and observations are considered a starting point for more rigorous spatial analysis, temperature modeling, and fieldwork. Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 42 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA 3. LiDAR Data Sampling and Analysis Sampling of LiDAR first and last return data was performed using TTools 7.0, an ArcView extension offering a suite of tools designed to automatically sample spatial data sets used as inputs for Heat Source. TTools 7.0 is designed to assemble high- resolution ( <1:2,000 geographic scale) spatial databases. Figure 32. LiDAR scene on Big Quilcene River near the Fish Hatchery 3.1 Stream Position and Data Nodes 3.1.1 Data Sources • Orthophotography • LiDAR Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 43 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA 3.1.2 Sampling Methods Stream polyline accuracy is a function of the mapping scale and underlying data accuracy. For example, a stream polyline at 1:100,000 mapping scale simplifies sinuosity and has local horizontal inaccuracies (sometimes in excess of 200 feet). A 1:100,000 stream polyline will result in inaccurate reference points and oversimplified stream position. A stream polyline digitized at <1:5,000 mapping scale will properly identify stream position and will yield accurate reference points for sampling. Stream digitizing was performed at a 1:1,500 scale using bare earth LiDAR data and 1 meter contours developed from bare earth LiDAR data. Digitized stream position is used to develop data nodes (reference points) for sampled/derived data generated with the TTools extension. Once a stream polyline has been digitized, it is segmented at 25 meter intervals to produce a point data layer (shapefile). This point data theme is then used to sample other parameters (and data generated is associated with these discrete points). Figure 33. LiDAR scene on Tarboo Creek. Digitized stream polyline segmented at 25 meter interval provide nodes (blue dots) for sampling spatial data. Area is obscured by vegetation and stream is small, making detection possible only with bare earth LOAR data. First Return Bare Earth Model Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 44 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA 3.1.3 Results Table 7. Stream Extent Digitized and Segmented into 25 meter Nodes Stream Tarboo Creek Leland Creek Little Quilcene River Quilcene River Chimacum Creek East Chimacum Creek 3.2 Stream Aspect 3.2.1 Data Sources Length (1:5,000 Nodes scaled) 11.225 KM 449 7.550 KM 302 11.300 KM 452 11.075 KM 443 23.875 KM 955 11.250 KM 450 • Stream Node Positions (from bare earth LiDAR data) 3.2.2 Sampling Methods The stream aspect is defined as the angle that exists between the velocity vector ( U ) and true north (0*). TTools calculates this angle as the angle between each of the stream data nodes. Valley aspect is also sampled and assigned to stream data nodes. The divergence (difference between stream and valley aspects) can then be used to calculate sinuosity and is used directly for simulating hyporheic flows. Figure 34. Stream aspect is calculated by calculating the angle between two stream nodes. Stream kit Asped _ 950 7 i Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 45 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA 3.2.3 Results Figure 35. Stream and valley aspect, along with absolute divergence between stream and valley aspects Tarboo Creek 3M ~ — — -- 136 315 awsteem Aspect .VaNyAspeit 276. 8 226 t3fi . "s. ' n Is N3 0 p '.N h N I N h N n,'Nh Nh N h Nh HP N h Nh N �8. N !N P,.N h S7. h,NP M'hN AC4 N NN N RIver RN River KIN Leland Creek 300 135 136 315 ewstramA.yect — VJIeVAspect 270 x' 90 225 CA x,135 13a - 4 y: m�46. y 45 Q ._ eVq a2 aq �. aQ e2 —' w •— eq _ e2 ^. a3 na - °Q - . a3 ni - _ Rver KM -.- - - R.r KM Little. River 360 _��._.._._ : °--- __�e:d�.._...._ -135 1e *ewn Pepect ^ Vakro ftect 315 270 ffi 225 go 180 ZS r 8 136- 2' V 0 >3 D u QQ. CI 9 rQ N.. S'Q iQ lq M M GQ fi W 'n dt I CQ 'n Q. q M ee Nn eq I q q cQ I vQ 1q aD C'1 .Q IQ'aQ C! R d? -Cl. CQ F! Rver KM River KM Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 46 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Figure 35 (cont). Stream and valley aspect, along with absolute divergence between stream and valley aspects .bag Quileene River 360 360 31 360 315 - w� Stream A%pect 315 270 i --MiNeyAspect a N 225 270 225 E c 11-9 iso a i3 225 ' 180 .Jj1 .. E 180 3° 90 z. 1135 0 46 0 tz o 135 a 90 90. 45 0 46 0 0 ^ED.- m.- _m�ro. -m ^EO ^d7- .- m.- .m ^a3. ^m '• ^. m^ m^ GD a0.7m.r•ro.�m'�m�-m ^ab- '-m ^ -m'�- � -GG WGOOD:CD.M1.f�maD 4i Yi.Q -V (°): C/HN ^�.G.G �S]:G -W. Cp OD'f�Iti GD OD �[f Y'i7 !C a'; C'i Flyer KM KM Biver KM Chimacum Creek QM Q at ^_ Y flyer KM ^River KM East Chimacum Creek Streamf�ect — \,AIIeyAspect 360 31 e .315 6 i INTO 270 225 #8 225 TM E c 11-9 iso ISO 135 .Jj1 .. 3° 90 z. 45 0 46 0 0 r2 �'1 aR �'2 aQ.�"k. OR t"L a4 r'!. 04 �'! aR �'t a4 M 04 cl aQ M M M f St QM Q at ^_ Y flyer KM ^River KM East Chimacum Creek Streamf�ect — \,AIIeyAspect 360 31 2 2 315 .315 6 � 270 270 225 #8 225 TM E c 11-9 iso ISO 135 'S M 135 -C 3° 90 z. 45 0 46 0 0 r2 �'1 aR �'2 aQ.�"k. OR t"L a4 r'!. 04 �'! aR �'t a4 M 04 cl aQ M M M Flyer KM River KM Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 47 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA 3.3 Stream Gradient and Sinuosity 3.3.1 Data Sources • Stream Nodes Layer • LiDAR 3.3.2 Sampling Methods Stream elevation is measured from the bare earth LiDAR (1 meter DEM). To help find the lowest pixel nearest to the stream segment node, TTools samples 25 pixels: the pixel that falls directly on the stream segment node and two pixels in each direction surrounding it. The lowest elevation sampled is assigned to the stream segment node. Figure 36. The procedure for sampling stream elevation involves twenty five discrete samples in a radial pattern to locate the lowest datum. Stream gradient is calculated from the elevation of the stream node and the distance between nodes. Gradients are calculated as: Stream Gradient Calculation, S o - z; -z;. — i -i� •dx Variables, Measured /Known dx : Distance Step (m) i : Stream Data Node i" : Last Stream Node Where (zi. > z; ) z : Elevation (s) Calculated SO: Stream Gradient (unitless) (Eq. 1) Stream sinuosity is determined from the absolute angle of divergence (the difference between stream aspect and valley aspect) and distance between stream data nodes. From Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 48 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA these data the stream length and valley length can be calculated, allowing the calculation of sinuosity. Results are presented in Figure 37, page 50. Stream Sinuosity Calculation, i+10 dx Sin = Lsheam _ i i +10 Lvalley COS(Bstream — evalley) dx i Variables, Measured /Known dx : Distance Step (m) i : Stream Data Node i +10: Stream Data Node 250 meters Downstream Lstream : Stream Length (m) Lvauey : Valley Length (m) Bs�eQ1„ : Stream Aspect (degrees) evalley : Valley Aspect (degrees) Calculated Sin: Stream Sinuosity (unitless) (Eq. 2) Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 49 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA 3.3.3 Results Figure 37. Stream gradient \t and sinuosity Tarboo Creek Leland Creek Sbw96�y -.. ^"–iili%%f w5�atios�r - °'C�ti+taen! 4 °^ �. T5%. 4 7di95 - - 2 296 2 2d 1 : Sl h, #+f a r' @ Ci Q t - !� 14 : Sd ii ODS PAV KM Niter KM LiWe Qudcene River B4 Qu&rne iuver i 3t?x a fO9G o soAi1 "aIyssO/y: "°` #teal4Mi 2$ai �sl%1K3ily °– Grs4fsnf_- G. 4 15% 2 3b6 2 bgts^yt Ba *r Ebb` 09 # 03. W .'"! W Ct.4f. S'2 {Q i�4. 14'0411@ OA a4 t4 64 M � -Ot 14 [9 �} �. W W $ @ h K # #.O' �fA Ri' V OY T7 SV N � e• C C � Y�Sj r IKk •^. CT .• 1p v elE r. cR .- qq r. %P! r #.r q r � e. �_ W � W W O8 W A n. O # W a �' +�i d0 i9 N �q n r �y C! rdw VM RAW KM OUmacm Creek zwt M#nac a C'ree'k r�wSkaas� – °$vat$brk ws5ire�eliyr - t3rasi 4 74% 4 2.594 ZO% 2 a59s �a 1 OA% 9 ANAL 3�whwa ANAL 0." � c"�ri a W ��Wa4 aeW a<kW c+a as�4, rya, �p:od�r�� #afalk�fs+�vk9`�m�i�� + �w�'+ �M�eBasata�eawr4 +gs�raa�aFwa4��ni +- R�WW�mr .t« #rn+aeca�rvv�ranrr�Rrat� MW KM row KM Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 50 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA 3.4 Topographic Shade 3.4.1 Data Sources • Stream Nodes Layer • LiDAR 3.4.2 Sampling Methods The maximum topographic shade angle is calculated to the east, south and west, relative to the stream segment node. In each direction (east, south and west) TTools steps away from the stream sampling the 1 meter bare earth LiDAR pixels for elevation and calculating topographic shade angle. TTools records the value and the X and Y coordinates of the point that represents maximum topographic shade angle. While this description is fairly simple, the methodology is actually quite complex. The overriding intent of topographic shade calculation focuses on locating the local maximum associated with each data node in the three direction (East, West and South). Generally, there are near field (stream bank, valley morphology, etc.) and far field (hills, mountains, etc.) topographic features that combine to form topographic shade. In terms of the local effect of topographic shade, only the highest directional topographic angle (and not necessarily the highest topographic feature) is a controlling factor. With this background, the search regime for the maximum topographic feature must include both the near and far field. Near - field: Far - Field: Each of first 25 DEM User determines sample cells is sampled. - distance and interval - TTools records the max topographic shade angle. Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 51 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA The near field search is higher resolution, because the distance from the stream is small, increasing the importance of even small elevation differences from stream banks and morphology. The near field search directionally samples each DEM 1 meter pixel for a total of twenty five pixels away from the stream. The highest near field topographic shade angle, for all three directions, is stored in memory for each stream node. The far field search for the maximum topographic shade angle typically targets large features (hills, mountains, etc.) and spans greater distances from the stream. These factors allow a more coarse sampling resolution (and allow greater sampling interval distances). The higher of the two maximum topographic shade angles (near field and far field) is entered in the stream node database as the greatest topographic shade angle. This procedure is repeated for directions due east (90 °), south (180 °) and west (2700). Topographic Shade Calculation, OT =tan-' (�_LT T -Zi / Variables, Measured/Known dx : Distance Step (m) i : Stream Data Node LT: Distance from Stream Data Node `i' to topographic feature z: Elevation (s) zT : Elevation of Topographic Feature (s) Calculated ()T: Topographic Shade (degrees) (Eq. 3) Prepared by Watershed Sciences �� Page 52 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA 3.4.3 Results Figure 38. Topographic Shade Angles Tarboo Creek Leland Creek -. 00 .:, n- 50 2,40 `{ a fr` - 20 0 J 10 . Potter KM ° � ° a' c°4 M ^ Q1 Flyer ter ° .6 Little Nicene Raver Bag Quilcene Aver 00 so „ a �. 50c CD i 40 41 30`�n�.r.:'. ". - a 30 0 ci V a Flyer KM n N °� sx Wa Po VN KM to N c Chamacum Creek East Chamacum Creek 00 s v 50 "'�"c �' sr t 140 Crt 30 20 �. {�` 30 10 i"!ty NN W IIVV � Q 6. W {•b�Q W � V ' N a4 ... W M1 9i m Q S Potter KM T ' W 40' ^�' m °t - Flyer KM KMS CR c4 M . !ri ,°�° IR a Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 53 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA 3.5 Near Stream Vegetation Height 3.5.1 Data Sources • Stream Nodes Layer • LiDAR 3.5.2 Sampling Methods The role of near stream land cover in maintaining a healthy stream condition and water quality is well documented and accepted in scientific literature (Beschta et al. 1987). Near stream land cover has several influences upon the stream and the surrounding environment that warrant listing: • Regulating radiant heat in stream thermodynamic regimes. • Channel morphology is often highly influenced by land cover type and condition by affecting flood plain and instream roughness, contributing coarse woody debris and influencing sedimentation, stream substrate compositions and stream bank stability. • Creating a thermal microclimate that generally maintains cooler air temperatures, higher relative humidity and lower wind speeds along stream corridors. • Instream nutrient cycles are affected by near stream land cover. With the recognition that near stream land cover is an important parameter in influencing water quality, the development of land cover data sets should be a high priority. Variable land cover conditions require a higher resolution than most currently available GIS land cover data sources. To meet this need, LiDAR data are extensively utilized. TTools relies on a radial sampling pattern for near stream land cover. Radial land cover sampling occurs for every stream data node at four 15 meter intervals in the northwest, west, southwest, south, southeast, east, and north east directions (North is not sampled since the sun does not shine from that direction in the northern hemisphere, and shadows will not be cast in a southerly direction). A database of land cover type is created for each stream data node. The figure below shows the radial sampling pattern and example of data sampling with LiDAR data. Once vegetation height is sampled, it can then be averaged for the left and right banks. This is done only for presentation purposed. All modeling uses the raw vegetation height data. Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 54 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Figure 39. Vegetation Sampling Methodology. Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 55 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA 3.5.3 Results tigure 4U. Sampled Vegetation Height -Big Quilcene River (Note Missing LiDAR Data Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 56 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Eigure 41. Sampled Vegetation Height Statistics - Big Quilcene River Percentiles 2`ayY Count Max Min 5th 25th 50th 50 95th 10.0 -11.0 No Data No Data No Data , No Data No Data No Data No Data 3,. _ ? A Min No Data No Data No Data No Data No Data No Data 8.0 -9.0 No Data No Data No Data No Data a 5th Percentile No Data «+ 40 7.0 -8.0 No Data No Data No Data No Data No Data Y No Data 25th Percentile 6.0 -6.3 308 28.2m 0.0M 0.0M 0.0M 0.1 m 0.9m 18.5m 5.0 -6.0 1,120 38.8m 0.0M 0.0M 30 0.1 m 0.5m w 50th Percentile 4.0 -5.0 1,120 35.8m 0.0M 0.0M (Median) 0.2m 1.2m 16.9m 3.0 -4.0 m 75th Percentile 44.6m t31 20 0.0M x` 95th Percentile 0.8m 21.0 m 2.0 -3.0 1,120 33.2m 0.0M 0.0M � 0.1 m e i 11.6m 1.0 -2.0 1,119 43.0 m 0.0M 0.0M 0.0M 10 Max 2.3m 19.4m 10 1,148 23.4m 0.0M 0.0M 0.0M 0.2m 0.9m 7.0 m Total 7,055 44.6 m 0.0 m 0.0 m 0.0 m 0.2 m 0 14.9 m O O O T! CD ° o o CD �A - s Cb s ri o 6 06 d ° C� Q M N Ate' :6 s Cb ; o ry �4. r River KM r� a Table 8. Sampled Vegetation Height Statistics - Big Quilcene River Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 57 Percentiles Rivermiles Count Max Min 5th 25th 50th 75th 95th 10.0 -11.0 No Data No Data No Data No Data No Data No Data No Data No Data 9.0 -10.0 No Data No Data No Data No Data No Data No Data No Data No Data 8.0 -9.0 No Data No Data No Data No Data No Data No Data No Data No Data 7.0 -8.0 No Data No Data No Data No Data No Data No Data No Data No Data 6.0 -6.3 308 28.2m 0.0M 0.0M 0.0M 0.1 m 0.9m 18.5m 5.0 -6.0 1,120 38.8m 0.0M 0.0M 0.0M 0.1 m 0.5m 11.2m 4.0 -5.0 1,120 35.8m 0.0M 0.0M 0.0M 0.2m 1.2m 16.9m 3.0 -4.0 1,120 44.6m 0.0M 0.0M 0.0M 0.2m 0.8m 21.0 m 2.0 -3.0 1,120 33.2m 0.0M 0.0M 0.0M 0.1 m 0.6m 11.6m 1.0 -2.0 1,119 43.0 m 0.0M 0.0M 0.0M 0.2m 2.3m 19.4m 0.0 -1.0 1,148 23.4m 0.0M 0.0M 0.0M 0.2m 0.9m 7.0 m Total 7,055 44.6 m 0.0 m 0.0 m 0.0 m 0.2 m 0.9 m 14.9 m Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 57 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Figure 42. Sampled Veizetation Heisht - Little Ouilcene River Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 58 � lo o 0 JA y�g RiverKM 5'4 z - .X, 60 �`=+• i "ar±Y 4"'a�k"'s �.- 's 9Yi'Y��i' 'v' ��'fl�"k ,tld 50 z 40 IM 30 _ C cc j� LOY` OP,t �Oar w�aom. � vo ao River ACM M M CO E c- OD E E em u. 2 1. fV O to I— Ua Cj C a 0 Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 58 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA rigure 43. Sampled Vegetation Height Statistics - Little Quilcene River Percentiles Rivermiles Count Max Min 5th 25th 50th 75th 95th 11.3 -11.0 50 53.5 m 0.0 m 0.0 m 1.8 m 11.6 m 27.6 38.6 i� Min 1,120 48.0m 0.0M 0.5m 5.3m 40 36.5 9.0 -10.0 a 5th Percentile 45.3m 0.0M 0.0M 0.9m 9.4m 21.0 36.9 8.0 -9.0 1,120 ig 25th Percentile 0.0 m 0.0 m 0.1 m 0.8 m 10.0 29.9 7.0 -8.0 1,120 43.4 m 0.0 m 0.0 m 30 1.6 m 12.0 a 50th Percentile +� 1,120 54.7 m 0.0 m (Median) 0.1 m 0.7 m 5.1 22.0 ■ 75th Percentile 1,120 46.3 m 0.0 m 0.0 m 0.2 m t 20 34.6 4.0 -5.0 �. 95th Percentile : � 0.0M � 0.0M 0.2m 3.2 24.0 3.0 -4.0 1,120 iw Max 0.0 m 10 0.1 m ' 4.2 25.3 2.0 -3.0 1,120 41.7m 0.0M 0.0M 0.1 m Y� r 2.9 24.1 1.0 -2.0 1,092 47.1 m 0.0 m 0.0 m 0.0 m 0.2 m CD. 13.9 0.0 -1.0 ch °o o h" 0.0M 0.0M p m o �ry 2.8 Total d 54.7 m 0.0 m 0.0 m c5 d �a4a 9.0 30.7 River KM Table 9. Sampled Vegetation Height Statistics - Little Quilcene River Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 59 Percentiles Rivermiles Count Max Min 5th 25th 50th 75th 95th 11.3 -11.0 364 53.5 m 0.0 m 0.0 m 1.8 m 11.6 m 27.6 38.6 10.0 -11.0 1,120 48.0m 0.0M 0.0M 0.5m 5.3m 19.5 36.5 9.0 -10.0 1,120 45.3m 0.0M 0.0M 0.9m 9.4m 21.0 36.9 8.0 -9.0 1,120 46.9 m 0.0 m 0.0 m 0.1 m 0.8 m 10.0 29.9 7.0 -8.0 1,120 43.4 m 0.0 m 0.0 m 0.3 m 1.6 m 12.0 28.1 6.0 -7.0 1,120 54.7 m 0.0 m 0.0 m 0.1 m 0.7 m 5.1 22.0 5.0 -6.0 1,120 46.3 m 0.0 m 0.0 m 0.2 m 1.6 m 20.2 34.6 4.0 -5.0 1,120 44.6m 0.0M 0.0M 0.0M 0.2m 3.2 24.0 3.0 -4.0 1,120 42.6 m 0.0 m 0.0 m 0.1 m 0.5 m 4.2 25.3 2.0 -3.0 1,120 41.7m 0.0M 0.0M 0.1 m 0.4m 2.9 24.1 1.0 -2.0 1,092 47.1 m 0.0 m 0.0 m 0.0 m 0.2 m 1.0 13.9 0.0 -1.0 1,120 21.5m 0.0M 0.0M 0.0M 0.0M 0.4 2.8 Total 12,684 54.7 m 0.0 m 0.0 m 0.1 m 0.7 m 9.0 30.7 Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 59 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA IM :. - — , Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 60 + „r hx w t � T k � 3 • • • e , • Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 60 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Te 4S. Sampled Vegetation Height Statistics - Leland Creek 60 xL is Table 10. Sampled Vegetation Height Statistics - Leland Creek Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 61 Percentiles Rivermiles Count Max Min 5th 25th 50th 75th 95th 7.6 -7.0 616 30.9 m 0.0 m 0.0 m 0.0 m 0.1 m 0.2 m 1.4 m 6.0 -7.0 1,120 31.3m 0.0M 0.0M 0.1 m 0.3m 1.4m 14.4m 5.0 -6.0 1,120 28.2m 0.0M 0.0M 0.0M 0.1 m 0.7m 7.7m 4.0 -5.0 1,120 35.7m 0.0M 0.0M 0.0M 0.4m 2.1 m 17.2m 3.0 -4.0 1,120 45.3m 0.0M 0.0M 0.1 m 0.8m 10.1 m 29.8m 2.0 -3.0 1,120 39.8m 0.0M 0.0M 0.1 m 0.9m 9.0m 28.1 m 1.0 -2.0 1,120 47.2m 0.0M 0.0M 0.2m 1.0M 8.0m 28.2m 0.0 -1.0 1,148 40.5m 0.0M 0.0M 0.1 m 0.8m 7.8m 25.0m Total 8,484 47.2 m 0.0 m 0.0 m 0.0 m 0.4 m 3.2 m 23.1 m Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 61 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'KIal1am Tribes Jefferson County, WA Yigure 46. SatnDled Veeetation Height -Tarboo Creek Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 62 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Figure 47. Sampled Vegetation Height Statistics - Tarboo Creek Table 11. Sampled Vegetation Height Statistics - Tarboo Creek Percentiles Rivermiles Count Max Min 5th 25th 50th 75th 95th 11.0 -11.25 280 24.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 > y 0.2 10.8 10.0 -11.0 1120 43.7 C % 0.0 0.3 2.9 10.6 3 9.0 -10.0 1120 43.0 0.0 0.0 W Min _ 13.4 + i 8.0 -9.0 1120 48.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 6.9 29.0 7.0 -8.0 1120 41.4 0.0 ■ 5th Percentile 0.1 _ 5.0 F 6.0 -7.0 1120 44.2 0.0 2 a 0.1 ■ 25th Percentile 22.1 0 1120 37.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2 z 4.0 -5.0 ■50th Percentile 32.3 CD 0.0 5 k �, 'r' S+:{ I ¢��. ` x '� � � �' '�..�� x� � , (Median) 0.2 6.6 3.0 -4.0 � ~° 35.9 ■ 75th Percentile 0.0 0.0 1 0.2 2.3 2.0 -3.0 1120 45.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 15.0 1.0 -2.0 1120 40.3 195th Percentile 0.0 0.1 0.9 _,. 28.1 0.0 -1.0 1120 40.8 0.0 �M 0.0 ■ Max 10.1 29.2 Total 12600 48.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 i 23.4 N O O ° of ° 0 0 ^ cc CO a o o M LO c7 N River KM ° Table 11. Sampled Vegetation Height Statistics - Tarboo Creek Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 63 Percentiles Rivermiles Count Max Min 5th 25th 50th 75th 95th 11.0 -11.25 280 24.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 10.8 10.0 -11.0 1120 43.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.9 10.6 20.0 9.0 -10.0 1120 43.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 5.7 13.4 26.2 8.0 -9.0 1120 48.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 6.9 29.0 7.0 -8.0 1120 41.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 5.0 29.7 6.0 -7.0 1120 44.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.9 22.1 5.0 -6.0 1120 37.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 15.4 4.0 -5.0 1120 32.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 6.6 3.0 -4.0 1120 35.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.3 2.0 -3.0 1120 45.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 15.0 1.0 -2.0 1120 40.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 12.2 28.1 0.0 -1.0 1120 40.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 10.1 29.2 Total 12600 48.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 4.5 23.4 Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 63 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Prepared by Watershed Sciences �� ��� Page 64 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 65 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Table 12. Sampled Vegetation Height Statistics - Chimacum Creek Percentiles Rivermiles Count Max Min 5th 25th 50th 75th 95th 23.0 -23.9 980 35.5 m 0.0 m 0.0 m 0.0 m 0.1 m 0.8 m 26.2 m 22.0 -23.0 1,120 28.5m 0.0M 0.0M 0.0M 0.0M 0.1 m 1.6m 21.0 -22.0 1,120 30.3m 0.0M 0.0M 0.4m 5.4m 10.9m 15.8m 20.0 -21.0 1,120 50.0m 0.0M 0.0M 0.8m 3.6m 8.9m 23.0m 19.0 -20.0 1,120 49.3m 0.0M 0.0M 0.7m 3.4m 11.6m 24.4m 18.0 -19.0 1,120 52.1 m 0.0M 0.0M 0.3m 1.2m 8.2m 25.7m 17.0 -18.0 1,120 43.1 m 0.0M 0.0M 0.0M 0.2m 5.6m 23.2m 16.0 -17.0 1,120 42.7m 0.0M 0.0M 0.0M 0.0M 0.2m 20.0m 15.0 -16.0 1,120 40.8m 0.0M 0.0M 0.0M 0.1 m 1.1 m 23.9m 14.0 -15.0 1,120 2.4m 0.0M 0.0M 0.0M 0.0M 0.1 m 0.3m 13.0 -14.0 1,120 12.7m 0.0M 0.0M 0.0M 0.0M 0.1 m 0.3m 12.0 -13.0 1,120 43.8m 0.0M 0.0M 0.0M 0.5m 6.2m 28.2m 11.0 -12.0 1,120 7.0m 0.0M 0.0M 0.0M 0.0M 0.1 m 0.6m 10.0 -11.0 1,120 15.5m 0.0M 0.0M 0.0M 0.1 m 0.2m 0.3m 9.0 -10.0 1,120 1.0M 0.0M 0.0M 0.0M 0.0M 0.2m 0.3m 8.0 -9.0 1,120 8.5m 0.0M 0.0M 0.0M 0.1 m 0.2m 0.4m 7.0 -8.0 1,120 9.6m 0.0M 0.0M 0.0M 0.1 m 0.2m 0.8m 6.0 -7.0 1,120 39.8 m 0.0 m 0.0 m 0.1 m 0.7 m 12.1 m 25.6 m 5.0 -6.0 1,120 27.7m 0.0M 0.0M 0.0M 0.2m 0.4m 6.2m 4.0 -5.0 1,120 32.1 m 0.0M 0.0M 0.1 m 0.4m 2.8m 19.2m 3.0 -4.0 1,120 41.4m 0.0M 0.0M 0.2m 2.3m 13.3m 26.0m 2.0 -3.0 1,120 49.4m 0.0M 0.0M 0.2m 3.5m 16.7m 26.4m 1.0 -2.0 1,120 45.5m 0.0M 0.0M 0.6m 6.7m 19.5m 32.1 m 0.0 -1.0 1,148 47.2m 0.0M 0.0M 0.1 m 6.0m 17.3m 32.9m Total 26,768 52.1 m 0.0 m 0.0 m 0.0 m 0.2 m 3.2 m 22.8 m Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 66 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA rigure -*)U. Jambled Vegetation Hemht — East C;hlmacum Creek '1"r.L 4 { KP N i rdver KM I- ' �y,p tP1 ' VLU 60 50 �� IM ZQ IM IV > 0 LP a' o m CD CO - U? ti OD � � ch ui River KM 00 0 E u 0 , a) N PE LO r-.: � Q4P CN m N O Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 67 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Figure 51. Sampled Vegetation Height Statistics - East Chimacum Creek 4 Percentiles Rivermiles Count Max Min 5th 5 50th 75th 95th 11.0 -11.25 280 24.3m 0.0M 0.0M 0.0M 0.2m 1.0m 12.0m 10.0 -11.0 1,120 40.4m 0.0M 0.0M f 0.2m 0.8m 14.1 m 9.0 -10.0 E 43.9m 0.0M 0.0M 0.4m 2.7m 13.8m m Min 8.0 -9.0 1,120 32.5m 0.0M Cs 0.0M 0.1 m ■ 5th Percentile 2 7.0 -8.0 1,120 27.1 m Z 0.0M 3 a 25th Percentile 0.8m 10.6m 6.0 -7.0 1,120 2 0.0 M 0.0 M v ■ 50th Percentile 0.0 M 0.1 m (Median) 1 1,120 3.2 m ■ 75th Percentile 0.0 m 0.0 m 0.0 m 0.1 m 0.2 m 4.0 -5.0 1,120 95th Percentile 0.0M 0.0M 0.0M 0.0M 0.1 m 0.2m 3.0 -4.0 1,120 10.0m 0.0M 0.0M ■ Max 0.0M r � 0.2m 2.0 -3.0 1,120 3.8m 0.0M 0.0M 0.0M 0.0M 0.1 m 0.2m 1.0 -2.0 LO 15.7m 0.0M 0.0M 0.1 m 0 ?S A9 1.1 m CP 0 0 0 22.4m 0.0M 0 o o c o u q N 0.3m Qo' cc U'j o 43.9 m 0.0 m C4 0.0 m 0.1 m River KM c Table 13. Sampled Vegetation Height Statistics - East Chimacum Creek Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 68 Percentiles Rivermiles Count Max Min 5th 25th 50th 75th 95th 11.0 -11.25 280 24.3m 0.0M 0.0M 0.0M 0.2m 1.0m 12.0m 10.0 -11.0 1,120 40.4m 0.0M 0.0M 0.0M 0.2m 0.8m 14.1 m 9.0 -10.0 1,120 43.9m 0.0M 0.0M 0.4m 2.7m 13.8m 27.2m 8.0 -9.0 1,120 32.5m 0.0M 0.0M 0.0M 0.1 m 0.3m 16.5m 7.0 -8.0 1,120 27.1 m 0.0M 0.0M 0.0M 0.1 m 0.8m 10.6m 6.0 -7.0 1,120 4.0 m 0.0 M 0.0 M 0.0 M 0.0 M 0.1 m 0.3 m 5.0 -6.0 1,120 3.2 m 0.0 m 0.0 m 0.0 m 0.0 m 0.1 m 0.2 m 4.0 -5.0 1,120 40.5m 0.0M 0.0M 0.0M 0.0M 0.1 m 0.2m 3.0 -4.0 1,120 10.0m 0.0M 0.0M 0.0M 0.0M 0.1 m 0.2m 2.0 -3.0 1,120 3.8m 0.0M 0.0M 0.0M 0.0M 0.1 m 0.2m 1.0 -2.0 1,120 15.7m 0.0M 0.0M 0.1 m 0.2m 0.3m 1.1 m 0.0 -1.0 1,148 22.4m 0.0M 0.0M 0.0M 0.1 m 0.3m 4.0m Total 12628 43.9 m 0.0 m 0.0 m 0.0 m 0.1 m 0.2 m 10.9 m Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 68 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA 3.6 Historical Vegetation Analysis 3.6.1 Data Sources • Historical Vegetation Analysis — Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribe • Bahls, P. and J. Rubin. 1996. Chimacum watershed coho restoration assessment. report for Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribe 3.6.2 Sampling Methods Historical riparian vegetation information suggest that the land cover distributions were predominantly conifer, with some hardwood/conifer communities. Wetland and marsh areas comprised a small (13 %) of the overall land cover distribution, although it is likely that wetland communities were frequently located along stream corridors. "While it appears that Tarboo was indeed dominated by conifer - spruce bottomlands, Chimacum was not. There was a mosaic of large and small beaver ponds, huge open areas of spirea and crabapple. The assumption that Chimacum was dominated by conifer forest is probably not the case. However, there may have been alot more shrub shade and cold water from springs and other storage behind beaver dams than there is now, but complex." ( Bahls, e-mail communication) Bahls and Rubin (1996) describe historical vegetative /morphologic conditions that trend toward more woody riparian vegetation, relative to contemporary conditions. This generalization holds for a much of the study area. However, some lower gradient areas, especially Chimacum reaches, were dominated by non -woody wetland species, offering complex alluvial morphology with frequent beaver disturbance, instead of the contemporary single thread channels that prevail today. Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 69 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA 3.6.3 Results Figure 52. Historical Riparian Vegetation Distribution (PGST Data The modeled vegetation scenarios are simplified to reflect a general increase in woody vegetation and later seral stages, both indicative of the historical condition. It is acknowledged that the scenarios are locally imprecise, under- and over - stating the historical condition, depending on the location. At this time, it is not practical, or even scientifically defensible, to simulate a true historical vegetation condition. In this context, the simulated vegetation scenarios should be recognized as simple approximations of increases woody vegetation. They are not accurate representations of a historical condition. Prepared by Watershed Sciences � � � �� � Page 70 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Figure 53. Vegetation Species Average Growing Height Based Upon Measured Data in Pacific Northwest Coastal Areas. Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 71 Chapman- Richards Asymptotic Non - Linear Regression Module H = 1.37 + (bo[1 — exp(b1 -D BH)]b2 ) (Richards, 1959) DBH Calculated Height Species Site Class (inches) bo bl b2 (feet) (meters) Sitka Spruce 1 to 2 40.0 65.3 -0.012 0.968 155.1 47.3 Douglas Fir 1 to 2 19.1 85.6 -0.010 0.935 108.7 33.2 Western Hemlock 1 to 2 14.9 60.9 -0.022 1.078 122.6 37.3 Western Red Cedar All 18.9 55.2 -0.012 0.911 78.9 24.1 Bigleaf Maple All 11.3 30.2 -0.037 0.813 62.1 18.9 Red Alder 1 to 3 9.2 37.4 -0.023 0.762 46.2 14.1 50 45 40 35 v r 30 m = 25 c 3 20 v 15 L Q 10 5 0 Sitka Spruce Douglas Fir Westem Westem Red Bigleaf Maple Red Alder Hemlock Cedar Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 71 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Page Left Bank Intentionally Prepared by Watershed Sciences �� � Page 72 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA 4. Flow and Temperature Data Table 14. Flow and Temperature Monitoring Locations and Site Identification Waterbody Tarboo Creek Little Quilcene River Big Quilcene River Leland Creek Penny Creek Howe Creek Chimacum Creek East Chimacum Creek Bamhouse Creek Naylors Creek Putaansuu Creek Station ID Bahls Station 1 Bah1s Station 4 Bahls Station 11 Balhs Station 13 Balhs Station 18 Balhs Station 21 Balhs Station 23 Bahls Station 24 Bahls Station 25 JCCD_TB /0.9 JCCD_TB /2.4 JCCD_TB /4.0 JCCD_CY /0.1 Bahls Station 30 PGST_LQU PGST_LQ2 PGST_LQL USGS_LQS6 USGS_LQS7 PGST_BQU USGS_BQS 1 PGST_BQM PGST_BQ2 PGST_BQL USGS_BQS5 PGST_LL2 PGST_LL3 PGST_LL4 PGST_LL5 USGS_BQS2 PGST_HOW JCCD_CH /0.1 JCCD_CH /2.3 JCCD_CH /3.4 JCCD_CH /6.7 JCCD_CH /9.3 JCCD_ECH/0.2 JCCD_ECH/1.0 JCCD_ECH /5.3 JCCD_BH /1.0 JCCD_NA/0.2 JCCD PU /0.4 Description At Mouth Downstream Dabob PO Road Downstream End of McDonald Property Upstream Junction with Tributary on McDonald Upper Yarr Dabob PO Road Edwards Worthington Center Road Coyle (EF Tarboo) Creek At ANE property PTQ3000 Rd Below Ripley Creek Hwy 101 Center Road Near McInnis Rd Falls View Campground Hiddendale Hwy 101 Glen Logie Road Rodgers Street Bridge Power lines Hwy 101 Deer Carcass Leland Tributary, Larch Road Upper Leland Tributary, Hwy 101 USFS Access Road Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 73 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA 4.1 Continuous Flow Measurements and Derived Flows 4.1.1 Data Sources • Washington DOE Gages (2004 Provisional Data) • USGS 10 meter DEM 4.1.2 Sampling Methods HEC- GeoHMS was used to calculate flow accumulations and delineate contributing watershed drainage areas (see http: / /www.hec.usace. army .mil /software/hec- hms/hechms- geohms.html). Continuous flow data measured at known gages were then extrapolated to upstream and tributary areas using weighted drainage area, as follows: where, A. Qi,t = A, QT,t T (Eq 5) Qij: Flow at outlet of drainage area I, at time t (cros) QT,t: Total flow at gage from all drainage areas, at time t (cros) A;: Drainage area i (m2) AT: Total drainage area above known gage (m) Measured instantaneous values (late July PGST and JCCD measurements) were used to check the accuracy of base flow estimates, and where deviations were observed, additions /subtractions were performed so that flow estimated match. The volumes added or subtracted from tributaries were accounted for in the upstream boundary condition, so that the mass balance is preserved. 4.1.3 Results State of Washington flow gages are located on each of the streams in the study area. Flows range considerably. Based upon these data collected during the study period (2004), the Big Quilcene and Little Quilcene Rivers median flows (as presented below) of 42 and 17 cfs, respectively. Chimacum and Tarboo Creeks have median flows of 6 and 2 cfs, respectively. Derived time series flow data are developed for modeled boundary conditions using Equation 5. Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 74 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Figure 54. Gage Data (Department of Ecology, River and Stream Monitoring, 3 0 LL : / /fortress. 1000 100 10 sta =1 —Big Quilcene River —Little Quilcene — Chimacum Creek — Tarboo Creek M v," b&6.- _�" . 'L jhkk- MMA -- - - - -.. - -- --------------------------- --- ---- -- - --------- - - - - -- -- - - - - -- - -��� -- - - - - -- - ------- hL- - - - - - - - - - w- - - - - ->A - - -- -- -� -- 1 Median Flows (6/1-9/30,2004) River /Stream (cfs) r 00 to N �j N M Q N M N CO M O h '.t r e V C` Little Quilcene CA 00 W 0.48 Chimacum Creek 5.84 0.17 Tarboo Creek 2.39 0.07 2004 Gage ID Latitude Longitude River mile Chimacum 17BO50 48 03'00" N 122 47'03" W 0.3 Tarboo 176060 47 52'08" N 122 48'57" W 0.5 Little Quilcene 17DO60 47 49'48" N 122 52'28" W 0.7 Big Quilcene 17AO60 47 49'06" N 122 52'56" W 0.2 Note: The flow drops in the Big Quilcene River provisional data (5/29 and 6/29) have little impact the modeling since they are outside of the period of interest. Prepared by Watershed Sciences f Page 75 Median Flows (6/1-9/30,2004) River /Stream (cfs) (cros) Big Quilcene River 42.45 1.20 Little Quilcene 16.95 0.48 Chimacum Creek 5.84 0.17 Tarboo Creek 2.39 0.07 Note: The flow drops in the Big Quilcene River provisional data (5/29 and 6/29) have little impact the modeling since they are outside of the period of interest. Prepared by Watershed Sciences f Page 75 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA 55. Bijz Quilcene Kiver: Area Weighted Venved Nows — Measured: Big Quilcene River Derived: Upper (PGST_BQU) — Derived: Penny 1000 MI 0 LL 10 ---------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------- Aely Error at Gage 1 O O N O cD CO O 1­ M O 1­ mt e— O C D ` N N N N N t` ti O O O O O O 2004 Figure 56. Little Ouilcene River: Area Weiehted Derived Flows — Measured: Little Quilcene —Derived: Upper (PGST_LQU) Derived: Leland (PGST_LEL) -o- Derived: Ripley -p- Derived: Howe 1000 100 10 0 L 1 0.1 0.01 O O N O (O M ` N N z CO CG W 1- O 1- M CO CN 04 2004 .0 aj � O W Sm Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 76 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA in 3 1 LL 42 v 3 0 LL 0.1 ihh7 10 1 r figure 57. Tarboo Creek: Area Weighted Denved Mows Measured: Tarboo Creek ► Derived: EF Tarboo —Derived: Upper (JCCD TB /4.0) - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - -- - - - - -- - -- - - 't - i� -.�J• - - - - - - - Ay�N M A�N � N ----rti- - -- -- j'~ --- ^- --- --- - -- -- - ------------------ +.� * - - - - -� � M 0 N O CC M O I­ M O 1 d' — � � � O Z25 ('O ` N N ti ` N N Co ` - N M ` N N c0 co co h i I- ao O ao CO CT> O O 2004 Eigure 58. Chimacum Creek: Area Weighted Derived Flows — Measured: Chimacum Creek Derived: E Chimacum (ECH /0.2) -- Derived: Trib (NA/0.2) Derived: JCCD CH /9.3 =tea i I E�- �- PF I 0.1 r CO u7 N O Co M O 1- M O I­ CO ` ` (O Co Co fz r- r- O 00 CO CO O O CA 2004 Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 77 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Figure 59. East Chimacum Creek: Area Weighted Derived Flows i- Derived: E Chimacum (ECH /0.2) •- Derived: Lower E Chimacum (CH /0.1) Derived: Upper E Chimacum (CH /3.3) 10.00 -r ---- 1.00 0 ---------- rti -_ `- _________ _- _______ - -� _ __________ ______ ....._________ 0.10 r CO Ln N 0) <O M CEO CO W 0 C ~ � O 1- CM O Q Q aD 2004 4.2 Instantaneous Flow Measurements 4.2.1 Data Sources • Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribe • Jefferson County • Bahls, 2002 0�0 a�0 CO O rn O> OM 4.2.2 Results Instantaneous flow measurements are used to describe ungaged streams and inflows, as well as upstream portions of the gaged streams /rivers. These data help validation of simulated flows and derived flows. Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 78 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Table 15. Instantaneous Flow Monitoring Sites Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 79 Flow ID Date Time cfs cros PGST_LQU 7/23/2004 10:00 8.2 0.233 PGST_LQ2 7/23/2004 11:00 14.9 0.421 Little Quilcene River PGST_LQL 7/23/2004 12:00 14.9 0.421 USGS_LQS6 7/22/2004 2:00 17.2 0.486 USGS_LQS7 7/23/2004 9:00 16.5 0.467 PGST_BQU 7/22/2004 13:35 56.5 1.599 USGS_BQS1 7/22/2004 10:45 51.0 1.444 PGST_BQM 7/22/2004 9:45 61.5 1.741 Big Quilcene River PGST_BQ2 7/22/2004 14:30 56.6 1.602 PGST_BQL 7/22/2004 11:35 60.5 1.714 USGS_BQS5 7/22/2004 12:10 56.3 1.595 PGST_LL2 7/23/2004 13:30 1.1 0.031 PGST_LL3 7/23/2004 15:00 0.4 0.012 Leland Creek PGST_LL4 7/23/2004 AM 0.004 0.000 PGST_LL5 7/23/2004 16:00 0.24 0.007 Penny Creek USGS_BQS2 7/22/2004 10:50 4.51 0.128 Howe Creek PGST_HOW 7/23/2004 9:00 5.73 0.162 JCCD_CH /0.1 7/23/2004 9:47 4.27 0.121 JCCD_CH /2.3 7/23/2004 10:10 3.04 0.086 JCCD_CH /3.4 7/23/2004 10:42 2.78 0.079 JCCD_CH /6.7 7/23/2004 13:00 2.17 0.061 Chimacum Creek JCCD_CH /9.3 7/23/2004 14:18 0.82 0.023 NA/0.2 7/23/2004 14:36 0.215 0.006 PU /0.4 7/23/2004 13:38 0.130 0.004 BH /1.0 7/23/2004 12:22 0.015 0.547 JCCD_ECH/0.2 7/23/2004 11:33 0.61 0.017 East Chimacum Creek JCCD_ECH/1.0 7/23/2004 12:02 0.75 0.021 JCCD_ECH/5.3 7/23/2004 11:24 0.63 0.018 Barnhouse Creek JCCD_BH /1.0 7/23/2004 12:22 0.55 0.016 Naylors Creek JCCD_NA/0.2 7/23/2004 14:36 0.22 0.006 Putaansuu Creek JCCD_PU /0.4 7/23/2004 13:38 0.07 0.002 JCCD_TB /0.9 7/26/2004 11:46 1.49 0.042 JCCD_TB /2.4 7/26/2004 11:05 1.13 0.032 JCCD_TB /4.0 7/26/2004 10:10 0.46 0.013 JCCD_CY /0.1 7/26/2004 12:45 0.39 0.011 Bahls Station 1 7/22/2002 0.10 0.0026 Bahls Station 4 7/22/2002 0.02 0.0007 Bahls Station 6 7/23/2002 0.08 0.0022 Tarboo Creek Bahls Station 11 7/24/2002 0.08 0.0024 Bahls Station 13 7/28/2002 0.10 0.0029 Bahls Station 18 7/30/2002 0.33 0.0093 BAN Station 21 7/31/2002 1.60 0.0454 Bahls Station 23 8/1/2002 0.27 0.0077 BAN Station 24 8/1/2002 1.13 0.0320 Bahls Station 25 8/1/2002 0.073 0.0021 Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 79 U �O ti .ti qr v Ol r. bA O O _O w y O O 0 w 'z o) w U ti F, Q% O O h IP- X m� „a p z 2 m •••_ _•J,� m m z z m m m O 00 bA «S P- N N U 3 b a Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA 4.3 Bathymetry Data 4.3.1 Data Sources • Instream Flow Measurements 4.3.2 Results The `Channel Angle — z' represents the channel side slope ratio and can be used to configure a basic trapezoidal channel dimension to match the basic channel geometry. Channel profile information (measured when collecting instream flow data) is used for estimating the channel side slope angle and bottom width of the channel (see Table below). The derived channel shapes are shown over the known channel shapes in the following figures. Width Bottom Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 81 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Table 16. Fitted Bottom Width and Side Slope Ratios (Z) WidthB. Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 82 ttoro (m) Z1 ZZ R SE (m) Little Quilcene @ PTQ3000 Rd 0 0.47 0.12 0.85 0.06 Little Quilcene below Ripley Creek 0 0.39 0.24 0.96 0.05 Little Quilcene @ Hwy 101 2.65 0.43 1.24 0.65 0.05 Little Quilcene @ Center Rd 2.13 0.14 0.32 0.87 0.06 Little Quilcene River nr McInnis Rd 1.46 0.16 0.12 0.95 0.02 Big Quilcene R @ Falls View Cmpgmd 9.53 0.09 2.00 0.90 0.07 Big Quilcene at Hiddendale 11.58 0.28 0.14 0.52 0.09 Big Quilcene River @ Hwy 101 11.58 0.78 0.049 0.86 0.06 Big Quilcene River @ Glen Logie Rd 7.25 0.44 0.21 0.85 0.07 Big Quilcene River @ Rodgers St Bridge 1.22 0.06 0.17 0.81 0.08 Big Quilcene River @ Power lines 1.83 0.05 0.05 0.89 0.03 Leland @ Hwy 101 1.98 0.33 0.33 1.00 0.00 Leland Creek @ Deer Carcass 1.28 0.22 0.23 0.88 0.02 Tarboo Creek - Bahls Station 1 4.00 0.25 0.63 0.83 0.21 Tarboo Creek - Bahls Station 4 5.10 0.52 0.52 0.92 0.13 Tarboo Creek - Bahls Station 11 4.05 1.11 1.23 0.87 0.09 Tarboo Creek - Bahls Station 13 1.70 0.37 0.47 0.85 0.13 Tarboo Creek - Bahls Station 18 1.20 0.98 0.65 0.95 0.10 Tarboo Creek - Bahls Station 21 3.65 0.30 0.97 0.95 0.06 Tarboo Creek - Bahls Station 23 2.10 1.08 0.78 0.90 0.10 Tarboo Creek - Bahls Station 24 3.80 0.28 2.60 0.95 0.07 Tarboo Creek - Bahls Station 25 2.50 0.90 0.72 0.93 0.09 Tarboo Creek - Bahls Station 30 2.58 0.34 0.56 0.91 0.11 Tarboo Creek - Station TB /0.9 2.13 0.30 0.15 0.78 0.01 Tarboo Creek - Station TB /2.4 1.22 0.34 0.34 0.95 0.01 Tarboo Creek - Station TB /4.0 0.82 1.20 3.61 0.86 0.01 Chimacum Creek - Station CH /0.1 2.74 0.35 0.64 0.77 0.11 Chimacum Creek - Station NA/0.2 0.49 0.66 3.28 0.83 0.01 Chimacum Creek - Station PU /0.4 0.58 0.66 1.31 0.78 0.02 Chimacum Creek - Station BH/1.0 0.55 0.87 0.37 0.73 0.03 Chimacum Creek - Station CH/2.3 3.05 0.43 0.16 0.84 0.03 Chimacum Creek - Station CH/3.4 3.05 0.17 0.21 0.88 0.04 Chimacum Creek - Station CH/6.7 2.56 0.14 0.26 0.93 0.02 Chimacum Creek - Station CH/9.3 0.37 0.11 0.24 0.89 0.01 East Chimacum Creek - Station ECH /0.2 0.98 1.15 0.09 0.87 0.01 East Chimacum Creek - Station ECH/1.0 0.98 0.25 0.42 0.94 0.02 East Chimacum Creek - Station ECH/5.3 0.18 7.22 0.30 0.95 0.01 Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 82 O N CD LO CV Oo - --------- CNI q4dea M DD rn LO (D LO LO U) C, V N N N N o U J 0 Ol 0 O 0 0 C, CO cc c O 0 clq 0 CO 0 Iq 0 0 O C', . 0 co o co 0 (W) 44dea W 4;dea M DD rn LO LO V N N o 0 Ol 0 O 0 0 C, CO cc c F-0 (W) tadea Lad-O M DD rn U �o ti `AI cc4 C� v 0� ti ^M N U O N Fr A ill Q� N a N Eb w bq ai b 0.! 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Leland Creek Bathymetry and Derive 'Trapezoidal Channel Hwy 101 Deer Carcass Width (m) 0 1 2 3 0 0 -- -- 0 0.005 0.02 .04 0 0.01 0.015 m 0.02 0.025 0.06 E 0.08 m 0.1 0.12 0.14 0.03 0.16 0.035 0.18 Width (m) 1 2 Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 95 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA 4.4 Continuous Stream Temperature Data 4.4.1 Data Sources • Instream Temperature Measurements 4.4.2 Sampling Methods Thermistors were deployed following Washington DOE protocols from May through October. 4.4.3 Results Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribe and Jefferson County staff deployed instream thermographs from May to October, 2004. From these data, seven (7) day moving average daily maximum (7 -day stat) temperatures were calculated and are presented in Table 17. Figure 67. Summary of Maximum 7 -Day Moving Average of Daily Maximums (for July, August and September, 2004) v 22 vi 21 20 ?+ 19 p 18 c 17 m a 16 015 .0 14 X 13 g 12 � 11 10 q ro n n o o v, N OR Co v, C � V q � G � C fV Aga O � M �S�j c0 t�SCj cG 1�S�j OSSf W O �Sj � �SNj t�S+j> 1�ggy J J Y } Y Y .gg� Y Y Yq� Y gY� gY� C E E E E E E U '> U U U a U U U U U U U o U o c� O g 0 C! C7 Sppp E E E E 7E E E E E E E E E E J N m m m 's m m L S "C Q V U V U U U U U U U U J d F H 'C m m m W co W m J Q, J W E E E E E E E E E w m H L L L L L L L L L L W W W W W W U U U U U U U U U U Prepared by Watershed Sciences � � �� Page 96 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Table 17. Seven (7) day moving average daily maximum (7 -day stat) temperatures ID SITE NAME Tem erature Statistics °C Absolute Max 7-Day Ave. Max July Aug Sept PGST LEL Leland Creek, Lower 20.3 18.7 17.5 14.5 JCCD LL /0.0 Leland Creek,RM 0.0 19.4 19.6 18.4 15.7 JCCD LL /1.8 Leland Creek, RM 1.8 20.4 19.4 18.6 15.3 PGST B L Big uilcene, Lower 18.6 18.0 17.9 14.4 PGST B M Big uilcene, Middle 16.8 16.3 16.4 13.1 PGST NFH Big uilcene @ Hatchery 17.4 16.7 16.9 13.5 PGST B U Big uilcene, Upper 13.6 13.3 13.4 11.1 PGST L CR Little Quilcene @ Center Rd 19.4 18.4 17.4 14.1 PGST L U Little Quilcene, Upper 15.6 14.7 14.4 11.6 JCCD L /1.6 Little Quilcene, RM 1.6 18.4 17.4 16.4 13.5 JCCD TB /0.9 Tarboo Creek, RM 0.9 17.4 16.7 16.4 14.2 JCCD TB /2.6 Tarboo Creek, RM 2.6 17.0 16.2 15.6 13.4 JCCD TB /4.0 Tarboo Creek, RM 4.0 15.7 14.6 14.1 12.4 PGST TB/Yarr Tarboo trib at Yarr Farm 26.0 21.2 17.5 14.1 JCCD CH /0.1 Chimacum Creek, RM 0.1 19.7 18.7 17.4 14.6 JCCD CH/1.1 Chimacum Creek, RM 1.1 18.7 18.2 16.9 15.0 JCCD CH/3.9 Chimacum Creek, RM 3.9 22.2 21.2 18.6 15.6 JCCD CH/5.3 Chimacum Creek, RM 5.3 19.2 18.7 17.0 14.9 JCCD CH/6.1 Chimacum Creek, RM 6.1 19.0 18.1 17.0 13.8 JCCD CH/6.5 Chimacum Creek, RM 6.5 17.4 16.6 15.9 13.3 JCCD CH/6.7 Chimacum Creek, RM 6.7 16.4 16.0 15.2 13.1 JCCD CH /7.0 Chimacum Creek, RM 7.0 16.4 14.7 14.4 13.4 JCCD CH/9.0 Chimacum Creek, RM 9.0 16.4 15.7 15.1 12.7 JCCD CH/9.4 Chimacum Creek, RM 9.4 15.0 14.3 13.9 11.9 JCCD ECH/0.1 East Chimacum, RM 0.1 20.2 19.4 18.2 14.5 JCCD ECH/1.1 East Chimacum, RM 1.1 18.2 17.8 16.3 14.0 JCCD ECH/1.2 East Chimacum, RM 1.2 18.8 18.2 16.4 13.9 JCCD ECH /2.8 East Chimacum, RM 2.8 16.6 15.9 15.4 12.7 JCCD ECH/3.3 East Chimacum, RM 3.3 16.1 15.6 15.1 12.8 JCCD ECH /5.4 East Chimacum, RM 5.4 13.7 13.1 12.8 11.7 Possibly Out of Water Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 97 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Figure 68. Big Quilcene River Continuous Temperature Data and 7 -Day Statistics Prepared by Watershed Sciences H�Page 98 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Figure 69. Little Quilcene River Continuous Temperature Data and 7 -Day Statistics • Little Quilcene, Upper (PGST -LQU) ■ Litttle Quilcene, LQ 1.7 • Litttle Quilcene, Center Rd. (PGST -LQCR) 20 18 ems.. 16 z E 14 f ` E H 12 E i i 10 N I 8 i 6 CO U') �_ CD _� N O CO M O P i1 O O 8- N N M O I� et O N fM r N N C r N CO tO n i. r� ao co aD ao rn rn rn � o 0 0 2004 20 �. 18 0 0 16 m C1 14 I E I S 12 o � g 10 R O 8 6 CO O O N O �p N N n ` N N 884 \ N CM -99- r N CO f� CO t� f� h CD O CO CD O O O r r O P 2004 Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 99 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Figure 70. Tarboo Creek Continuous Temperature Data and 7 -Day Statistics Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 100 i 1. rM 77:1 T WIT Pr F&I FA Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 100 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Figure 71. Leland Creek Continuous Temperature Data and 7 -Day Statistics Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 101 MOM III 4 Neill -4 Elk MAIN 41 Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 101 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Figure 72. Chimacum Creek Continuous Temperature Data and 7 -Dav Statistics Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 102 I� ,I IIIr � Yz, II. F , III I� r li r ' ti �` � ', IF 7 �. � l i ���� fIWO II 1 '1IN► I III III li!�� h- ������ 11 � :,•�- III III, ,t.: -�A Ak Am lit I� III III I Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 102 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble SKIallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Figure 73. East Chimacum Creek Continuous Temperature Data and 7-Day Statistics Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 103 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'WIallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA 4.4.4 Was 2004 a "normal' year for stream temperature? Over the July through September, 2004 was slightly warmer than 2001 and 2002, and more similar to 2003. July was warm and similar to 2003, with median values about 1 °C warmer than 2001 and 2002. August temperatures were less than 2003, roughly equivalent to 2002 and warmer than 2001. The coolest September temperatures of the four year record occurred in 2004. In general, the summertime temperature trended warmer in July, about average in August and cooler in September. Inter - Annual Variation in Stream Temperature (°C) at Lower Big Quilcene Monitoring Site (BQL) — 7 -Day Average of Daily Maximum (7- DADMax) 19 — - - - — - --- M - 2001 —2002 —2003 —2004 18 -------------- . -- hp. Ew . 125 17 ---------- t -. - -- - - -- - - -`� ----------------------------- c.. 16 - - - - - -'- --- - - - - -- - -- - - -- -- ------------------- G15 - - -- - - - - - - - -- - - - - -- - - x -- ----------------- m�° 4-' 14 j t : x 13. = -- -- - - - - - -- -------------- - - - - -- -- Q 12 ------- ---------------------------------------- --------- �a D �C 10 O LO N O �_ N O O N_ O CD th O iz � r O � � � O O �I 01 LD 17 3 'Lou 16 CL 0 15 9 14 `" 13 0 c 12 11 V 10 Median 2001 -2004 Inter - Annual Variation July -Sept July August September Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 104 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA The table below summarizes 7 -Day average of daily maximum (7- DADMax) water temperatures measured at the lower Big Quilcene River location (BQL). Measurements span the July through September, for 2001 through 2004, allowing inter - annual variation comparisons. Statistical Comparison of Inter - Annual Variation in Stream Temperature ( °C) at Lower Big Quilcene Monitoring Site (BQL) - 7 -Day Average of Daily Maximum (7- DADMax) Percentiles Period Year Min 25th 50th 75th Max July 2001 12.3 13.6 14.2 14.9 17.7 through 2002 11.1 13.0 13.9 15.0 16.4 September 2003 12.6 13.7 15.2 16.3 17.0 2004 12.1 13.0 14.9 16.6 18.0 2001 12.4 13.6 14.4 15.1 16.1 July 2002 11.1 13.1 13.8 14.5 15.4 2003 12.6 14.6 16.3 16.6 17.0 2004 12.7 14.6 16.4 17.3 18.0 2001 13.4 14.2 14.9 16.3 17.7 August 2002 13.0 14.7 15.2 15.6 16.4 2003 15.1 15.5 15.9 16.2 16.8 2004 14.4 14.9 15.5 17.2 17.9 2001 12.3 12.8 13.6 14.1 14.7 September 2002 12.1 12.5 13.0 13.5 14.4 2003 12.7 13.0 13.6 13.8 15.7 2004 1 12.1 12.4 12.7 13.5 1 14.4 Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 105 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA 4.5 Continuous Atmospheric Data 4.5.1 Data Sources • Air Temperature Measurements in Forested and Open Areas 4.5.2 Sampling Methods Same as Instream Temperature Measurements, excluding placement 4.3.3 Results Air temperatures in forested and open areas diverged considerably, with open areas recording warmer daytime temperatures and cooler nighttime temperatures. In the Leland Creek comparison, open areas averaged up to 11 °C warmer in the daytime and 3 °C degrees cooler in the nighttime. In the Chimacum Creek comparison, open areas averaged up to 3 °C warmer in the daytime and 3 °C degrees cooler in the nighttime. The large difference likely reflects characteristics of the local site, such as degree of vegetation cover. Third ordered polynomial regressions were fitted to the divergence data with moderate correlation coefficients: 0.57 for Leland and 0.40 for Chimacum. The poor correlation suggests significant inter -day variability between open and forested air temperatures. Hourly relative humidity and cloud cover data are available from Port Angeles and Bremerton weather stations. The Bremerton weather station malfunctioned and failed to record data during the month of August. Data from the Port Angeles weather station is presented below and used in all of the models. Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 106 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Figure 74. Leland Creek Air Temperature Data Comparison Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 107 Leleand Creek: Air Temperature 35 •f 1 1 5 + r \ •� f \IN 30 /M1.S Yr 't`,1.. f .p+"yr..l. +t . r t •f � \ �J.1\ A•\ •! t � r •t 411 ii\t t �YI .4 t R 25 ; !�I i ;,�5 �j v d 20 'M.S�• w + ttjj�l5 Ci r= \ \ f fw . \ ' y • t � E 15 I \ �� r H 7 1 M a 10 5 0 LO N ti �_ co N (O N O .N- () (ZG N N (Z h:. iz ; O a O r 2004 Air Temperature Deviation Between Open Area and Forested Area R2 = 0.57 16 14 0 12 c 10 • • • v 8 c 6 d • 4 • � 2 L E 0 F 'a -2 -4 -6 0 4 8 12 16 20 Hour of Day Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 107 Leland (Forest) • - • - • • - Leland (Open) •f 1 1 5 + r \ •� f \IN •\ .f �. \ /M1.S Yr 't`,1.. f .p+"yr..l. +t . r t •f � \ �J.1\ A•\ •! t � r •t 411 ii\t t �YI .4 t R ; !�I i ;,�5 'M.S�• + ttjj�l5 r= \ \ f fw . \ ' y • t � \ t I \ �� r • 7 1 M Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 107 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Figure 75. Chimacum Creek Air Temperature Data Comparison Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 108 Chimacum Creek: Air Temperature 35 r: ' Chim (Forest) - - - - . - - Chim (Open) 30 ci 25 rI5 , r , L 20 L E 15 ` m , / a 10 i;III .•,•I M I r _ _ r •I � � r � 5 •, III � I I ,�ti r I I 0 LO N 04 N 0 ti N O O O N co 25 � � � O r 2004 Air Temperature Deviation Between Open Area and Forested Area R2 = 0.40 15 V ° 10 C • > 5 0 m CL E • m ~ L -5 Q -10 0 4 8 12 16 20 Hour of Day Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 108 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble Mallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Figure 76. Port Angeles Relative Humidity and Cloud Cover Data wa Cloud Cover —Relative Humidity Suspect Data 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 109 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA 5. Stream Temperature Model A detailed description of Heat Source, the model used in this analysis, is presented in Appendix A. 5.1 Model Overview Stream temperatures change in response to heat transfer and mixing with tributaries and groundwater. Heat sources4 and sinks5 from the atmosphere (solar radiation, heat imparted from air temperature, evaporation and other radiant sources), the alluvial aquifer and the ground (heat transferred between the stream and the streambed). Ultimately these processes can be broken down into heat transfer and mass transfer. While these processes may seem complex, humans are actually intimately familiar with how water heats and cools. The processes listed below are experienced by humans in everyday life. Heat transfer processes: • Solar radiation is what you feel when exposed to the mid -day sun (and why we seek out shade when we are hot), • Thermal radiation is the heat you feel when you hold your hand close to a warm object, without actually touching it (like a hot flame), • Conduction is the warmth or coolness you feel when you touch another object (like the top of your desk or when you jump into a cold lake), • Convection is the transfer of heat that accompanies turbulent air over an object (just like a convection oven), • Evaporation is the cooling that results when water evaporates (which is the cooling you experience when you perspire). Mass transfer processes: • Advection is the transfer of heat downstream carried by river flow (analogous to being washed downstream) • Dispersion is the mixing of heat due to turbulent flows (similar to the diffusion. This is how you can smell perfume across a room), • Tributaries can transfer heat when waters mix at different temperatures, 4 Sources of heat refer to heat gained by the stream 5 Sinks of heat refer to heat lost by the stream Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 110 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S`Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA • Groundwater /Springs usually a source for cool water that mixes with streams. Hyporheic Exchange is the transfer of water flowing through the sediments /substrate with stream water. These flows tend to moderate heating and/or create cooling. Research investigating hyporheic flows is relatively new and therefore many people may not immediately be familiar with this process. However the cooling influence of shallow groundwater or hyporheic flows is an integral part of properly functioning alluvial stream systems. Parameters that affect stream temperature can be grouped as near stream land cover (vegetation), morphology and hydrology. Many of these stream parameters are interrelated (i.e., the condition of one may impact one or more of the other parameters). These parameters affect stream heat transfer processes and stream mass transfer processes to varying degrees. Regardless of scale, many of these parameters exhibit considerable spatial variability. For example, channel bathymetry measurements can vary greatly over small stream lengths. To further complicate matters, some parameters can have a diurnal and seasonal (temporal) component as well as spatial variability. Water temperature change (AT,,,) is a function of heat transfer to a discrete volume and may be described in terms of changes in heat per unit volume. With this basic conceptual framework, it is possible to discuss stream temperature change as a function of two variables: heat and mass transfer. Water Temperature Change as a Function of Heat Exchange per Unit Volume, oT « HHeat (Brown, 1969) " Volume • Heat transfer relates to processes that change heat in a defined water volume (or mass). There are several thermodynamic pathways that can introduce or remove heat from a stream. For any given stream reach heat exchange is closely related to the season, time of day, the surrounding environment and the stream characteristics. Heat transfer processes can be dynamic and change over relatively small distances and/or time periods. Several heat transfer processes can be affected by human activities. • Mass transfer relates to transport of flow volume downstream, instream mixing and the introduction or removal of water from a stream. For instance, flow from a tributary will cause a temperature change if the temperature is different from the receiving water. Mass transfer commonly occurs in stream systems as a result of Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 111 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA advection, dispersion, groundwater exchange, hyporheic flows, surface water exchange and other human related activities that alter stream flow volume. The simple relationship presented by Brown (1969) demonstrates that large volume streams are less responsive to temperature change, and conversely, low flow streams will exhibit greater temperature sensitivity (and greater rates of stream temperature change). Specifically, stream flow volume will affect the wetted channel dimensions (width and depth), flow velocity (and travel time) and the thermal assimilative capacity6. Human related reductions inflow volume can have a significant influence on stream temperature dynamics, most likely increasing diurnal variability in stream temperature. Heat Transfer Processes Stream temperature change is an expression of heat exchange between a stream and its environment. The heat transfer processes that control stream temperature include solar radiation ( (Dsotar), longwave (thermal) radiation (Otongwave), streambed conduction ( (Dstreambed), stream/air convection (Ooonvedi.n) and evaporation (0evaporation) (Wunderlich, 1972, Jobson and Keefer, 1979, Beschta and Weatherred, 1984, Sinokrot and Stefan, 1993, Boyd, 1996). Hence, the net heat energy flux (4)t,,t,,1) consists of summation of these heat transfer processes. With the exception of solar radiation, which only delivers heat energy, these processes are capable of both introducing and removing heat from a stream. Stream shade is an important regulator of shortwave radiation heat transfer to a stream that can create significant instream temperature increases (i.e. by loC or more) over spatial scales ranging from a stream segment (i.e. �z1 km) to the watershed scale (Brown 1969, Beschta and Weatherred, 1984, Boyd 1996). 6 The thermal assimilative capacity refers to the amount of heat change in a water column to cause specific temperature response. ' Air/Water convection includes both turbulent and free surface conduction. Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 112 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA The ultimate source of heat energy to a stream is solar radiation (both diffuse and direct). Secondary sources of heat energy include longwave radiation, from the atmosphere and near stream vegetation, streambed conduction and in some cases, groundwater exchange at the water - substrate interface. Several processes dissipate heat energy at the air -water interface, namely: evaporation, convection and back radiation. Heat energy is acquired by the stream system when the flux of heat energy entering the stream is greater than the flux of heat energy leaving. The net heat energy flux provides the rate at which energy is gained or lost per unit area and is represented as the instantaneous summation of all heat energy components. An example of heat transfer processes is presented in Figure below. Figure 77. Simulated Heat Transfer Processes: Big Quilcene River at Mouth, August Note the temporal variability in all processes, and the combined heat transfer (black line) Mass Transfer Processes Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 113 Net Heat Energy Continuity, (D total — (D solar + 4D longwave + 10 evaporation + (D convection + 10 streambed —Total Heat SolarRad. AirConv. Bed Cond. Evap. - LW Rad. 800 700 ^ }' 800 ----- ;_ --------------- ._ __ ;_ __ ,_ _ ____ -- --------------- 500 � - - - - - - - _ - - -- 400 300 b- 200-- Li 100 2 0 -100 - - j- -------- ` - - - - -- ------ -200 -- -- ------ ------- -------- ------- -- - --- ---- : - - - - - -- r - - - -- - - -- - - - -- -300 T �_Mr III T M CO CD �73 CD r r in r- C" T CI) r r r- Cll CU LO r_ C" T CU CU N M CD CO co CD cm CD C4 CD CPS Cn Mass Transfer Processes Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 113 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Mass transfer processes refer to the movement and mixing of water throughout a stream system. The downstream transport of dissolved/suspended substances and heat associated with flowing water is called advection. Dispersion results from turbulent diffusion that mixes the water column. Flowing water is usually well mixed vertically, largely a result of dispersion. Stream water mixing with inflows from surface tributaries and subsurface (groundwater) sources moves water and heat within the stream system. These processes (advection, dispersion and mixing of surface and subsurface waters) redistribute the heat of a stream system via mass transfer (Boyd and Kasper, 2003). Advection refers to the water that is transported by gravity driven river flow in the downstream direction. In the case of water temperature, no heat energy is lost or gained by the system during advection, assuming the heat from mechanical processes, such as friction and compression, is negligible. Advection is simply the rate at which water and the dissolved/suspended substances and heat are transferred downstream. Lateral Velocity Distribution Vertical Velocity Distribution Channel Edge (Left Bank) V Water Surface Flow Flow �y Channel Edge (Right Bank) Channel Bottom Dispersion Defined. Dispersion is the mixing that occurs from turbulence caused by vertical and lateral flow variations. Velocity is a function of depth, width and channel roughness (frictional forces at the boundaries). The vertical and horizontal gradient in flow velocity causes tumbling and eddy effect mixing Dispersion refers to the mixing caused by turbulent diffusion. Natural stream systems flows are often vertically mixed due to turbulent diffusion of water molecules. Turbulent flows result from a multi - dimensional variable flow velocity profile, with lower velocities occurring near the boundaries of the channel (i.e. channel bottom and stream banks). Higher velocities occur farthest away from channel boundaries, commonly at the top and Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 114 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA center of the water column. The velocity profile results from the friction between the flowing water and the rough surfaces of the channel. Since water is flowing at different rates through the channel cross - section, turbulence is created, and vertical mixing results. Dispersion mixes water molecules at a much higher rate than molecular diffusion. Turbulent diffusion can be calculated as a function of stream dimensions, channel roughness and average flow velocity. Dispersion occurs in both the upstream and downstream directions. Mixing external flows (tributaries, groundwater inflows, point sources, etc.) with receiving waters will change the water heat when the respective temperatures are different (as a function of stream and inflow volumes and temperatures). Remote sensing using thermal infrared radiometry (TIR) can easily identify areas where heat change occurs due to mixing with surface and subsurface waters. This report locates and quantifies subsurface inflows by detecting temperature changes apparent in the TIR data. Sources of Stream Warming and Cooling Stream and river temperatures are dynamic over large spatial scales, regardless of anthropogenic activities and associated human sources of heating/cooling. The temporal variability in natural background hydrology, land cover succession and morphology combine to create a complex and somewhat dynamic background thermal condition. The thermal background condition is a range, instead of a static condition. Natural sources that may increase stream temperature include scouring effects on morphology and floodplain vegetation, drought, fires, insect damage to near stream land cover, diseased near stream land cover and windthrow and blowdown in riparian areas. The processes in which natural sources affect stream temperatures include increased stream surface exposure to heat transfer processes, altered microclimates and flow modifications. Legacy morphology conditions and land cover distributions can sometimes be caused by natural disturbances. Overall, the extent of natural disturbances on near stream land cover, channel morphology and hydrology is not well documented in the literature and complicated by geologic time scales. Factors that cool streams and rivers that are of non -human origin can be broken into mass and heat transfer sources. Conditions that reduce radiant heat exposure will prevent or reduce rates of stream heating, and in some cases reduce stream heating rates and gradients. Such conditions include the persistent effects of shade produced from riparian Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 115 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA vegetation, stream surface area reduction via healthy equilibrium morphology, cool near stream microclimates that occur in well vegetated riparian corridors and mixing with the alluvial aquifer. There are also episodic cooling effects that reduce radiant heat exposure such as cloudiness (or any other form of vapor and particulate matter in the overlaying air mass), cool air temperatures that reduce thermal radiation emission from the atmosphere, vegetation and topography that is received by a stream and windy conditions that increase evaporative cooling. Natural mass transfers of inflow (tributaries, springs, etc.) can obviously heat and cool the receiving water. Typically subsurface water is cooler than surface water. Cooler subsurface waters tend to come from deeper ground water sources and snowmelt sources. Shallow groundwater and hyporheic flows typically have warmer temperatures relative to deep cold subsurface sources of flow (Bartolino and Niswanger, 1999). Streams and Rivers Are Thermally Unique Recent literature indicates that each hydrologic system (regardless of scale) is thermally unique (Boyd and Kasper 2003, Faux et al. 2001, Torgersen et al. 2001, Torgersen et al. 1999). A definition of stream temperature uniqueness recognizes that the longitudinal temperature profile, as well as spatial and temporal dynamics, defined at virtually any scale, applies only to one stream, river or network. Stream temperature distributions are highly characteristic of individual stream/river reaches and these unique temperature patterns are expressed inter - annually ( Torgersen et al. 1995). Stream and river systems are not only hydrologically and thermally unique, but also complex, since thermal patterns result from complex interactions between interrelated parameters (Boyd and Kasper 2003). These interrelated parameters can cause simultaneous thermal changes that amplify or mask the thermal effects of other processes. Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 116 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Figure 78. Thermal Infrared Radiometer Data (July 29h, 2004 –2:00-4:00 PM) Stream Temperature Patterns are Unique: • Exhibits different temperature patterns across multiple scales • Patterns result from uniquely distributed temporal thermal and hydrologic processes • Thermal and hydrologic processes reflect the condition of the floodplain, riparian area morphology, hydraulics, human land/water use and atmospheric conditions. 24-- —Chimacum 23- Creek 22 - —East Chimacum f 1\ Creek 0 21- 4) —Tarboo Creek S20- tv 19- Little Quilcene 18- River _&A1%jE 17 now Big Quilcene 6. River 16 - AA M 15- 14- 13-- 12- 11 10 Distance From Mouth (KM) Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 117 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Data and Methods High resolution spatial data sets serve as analytical inputs. These spatial data sets, coupled with analytical models, can go much further than simply describing selected processes over a reach level scale (i.e. shade heat moderation over a 1 km section of any given stream). Instead this approach offers a comprehensive analytical framework that does equally well at describing all heat and mass transfer processes, both localized and cumulative effects, over large scales (over the entire basin). Considerations for complicated and interrelated processes (i.e. hyporheic flow relations to morphology, land cover, valley landform and land use practices) are developed to capture recent scientific advances in our understanding, while cognizant of the limitations of data and knowledge gaps. This methodology represents an evolution of the literature that recognizes thermal uniqueness, explains interrelated causal factors and derives relations to land management and the biological resources. Methodology robustness stems from an incorporation of improvements and advancements where appropriate based upon the input from other cooperators /researchers, the literature and resource managers. Guiding fundamental principles of the methodology can be summarized as follows: • Streams and rivers are thermally unique over virtually any scale. Data and analysis address these unique thermal patterns at the landscape scale, • The analysis captures thermal and hydrologic uniqueness with high resolution (less than 1:5,000) spatially continuous data that complements traditional ground level data, • The methodology is fraught with analytical complexity. Very few simplifications, assumptions or omissions are evident, • Where possible, considerations for the interrelatedness between parameters are built into the methodology, • Analysis is performed without preconceived notions of parameter and process sensitivity, and ultimately, model outputs, and • Analytical resolution is scaled to match the high resolution offered from spatial data (GIS and remote sensing). Aside from computational speed, analytical modeling is best performed using deterministic methods over relatively short time and distance finite difference steps. Model operation resolution matches the dynamic nature of stream temperature that tends to occur over small scales across a variable landscape, and sometimes in a brief period of time. Heat Source calculates all thermodynamic and hydraulic processes that affect both heat and mass transfer (Boyd, 2004). Alluvial aquifer hydraulic gradients are assumed to Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 118 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA mimic stream hydraulic gradients in the near field. Heat Source calculates a multitude of processes for subsurface hydraulics and thermodynamics. Important parameters in the model (as they pertain to heat and mass transfer) are: • Bathymetry is accurately estimated, • Flows are well characterized in the study area, • External flows (tributaries, hyporheic flows and withdrawals) can be input into the model, • Flow variable processes are simulated (seasonal bar emergence, pooling, riffles, etc.), • Data outputs include important parameters (energy grade lines, hydraulic dimensions, etc.), • Simulation periods can be long. • Surface and subsurface heat flux processes, • Mass transfer heat flux processes, • Longitudinal hyporheic exchanges and heat transfer, • Surface water temperature and alluvial aquifer temperature. • Hydraulic conductivity$ of the alluvium, • Sediment depth9 of the alluvium underlying the stream (based on field/well measurements and LiDAR data), • Water balance of the system, including surface and alluvial aquifer (calculated by model), • Surface and alluvial aquifer flow rates /regime (calculated by model), • External flows and withdrawals from the surface and alluvial aquifer (based on field measurements, personal communication and water rights), • Hydraulic head of the alluvial aquifer (calculated by model), and • Wetted surface area over which exchange occurs (calculated by model). For a detailed summary of Heat Source, please refer to the Heat Source User's Manual (Boyd and Kasper, 2002). e Hydraulic conductivity is a measure of porosity that relates velocity and hydraulic gradient in Darcy's Law. s Sediment depth is the thickness of alluvium underlying the stream channel. Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 119 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble. S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA 5.2 Calibration Methods General Notes: 1. It is apparent that cloudiness (measured in Port Angeles) is not correct for several days. These data were not changed, however. 2. Data indicate that air temperatures significantly vary within the study areas, particularly in forest canopy compared to open areas. 3. Ungaged flows are estimated (watershed area weighted average) and checked against measured instantaneous data. This method is a crude estimate, particularly in the case of inter- stream water transfers (diversion from Little Quilcene to Howe Creek, transfers of from Penny Creek to the fish hatchery, diversions and agriculture returns, ponds or reservoirs, etc.). 4. The small streams (Chimacum, East Chimacum and Tarboo) are difficult to distinguish in the LiDAR data and may not be positioned exactly. 5.2.1 Little Quilcene River The Little Quilcene River was a relatively easy model to calibrate, largely because it has a large flow rate and is well characterized in the LiDAR data. Calibration followed standard methods and produced fairly accurate RMSE values of 0.65 - 0.74 °C. Calibration Notes: 1. Initially too hot and variable 2. Set Overhanging Vegetation Density to 95% 3. Set Sediment Depth to 0.5 m 4. Reduced Thermal Radiation (slightly) from Vegetation to 95% of Potential 5. Increased Evaporation Coefficients a and b to 0.0000000025 6. Manning's n of 0.15 is used to calibrate to measured wetted depth 5.2.2 Big Quilcene River The Big Quilcene River was difficult to warm to the measured values. Overhanging vegetation density was reduced in some areas to promote heating. Evaporation was also reduced to promote heating. Calibration followed standard methods and produced fairly accurate RMSE values of 0.56 - 0.96 °C. Calibration Notes: 1. Initially too cold 2. Set Overhanging Vegetation Density to 25 -100% 3. Set Sediment Depth to 0.5 m and Added Constant 1 °C to Streambed 4. Thermal Radiation from Vegetation set to 100% of Potential 5. Decreased Evaporation Coefficients a and b to 0.000000001 6. Manning's n of 0.10 is used to calibrate to measured wetted depth Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 120 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA 5.2.3 Tarboo Creek Tarboo Creek is a very low flow stream that proved challenging to simulate. Flow routing initially tended to underestimate stream depth and over estimate flow velocity. The stream is very sensitive to shading patterns and thermal radiation from the atmosphere and vegetation. Emergent and overhanging vegetation sampled from LiDAR provides most of the current shading in the low gradient pasture /meadows portions. Despite these challenges, good model accuracies were achieved with RMSE of 0.77 - 0.82 °C. Calibration Notes: 1. Initially too hot 2. Set Overhanging Vegetation Density to 90 -100% 3. Reduced Sediment Depth to 0.25 m 4. Reduced Thermal Radiation from Vegetation to 35% of Potential 5. Increased Evaporation Coefficients a and b to 0.000000002 6. A constant Manning's n of 0.35 is used to calibrate to measured wetted depth 7. Included withdrawal and accretion volumes visible in flow measurements 8. Assumed accretion flows return at same temperature as stream 5.2.4 Chimacum Creek Chimacum Creek is a long low flow stream that traverse several pastures /meadows, and infrequently through short distances of mixed canopy riparian areas. The model is extremely difficult to calibrate. In particular, data indicate that areas of the stream have virtually no diurnal profile, suggesting that accretion flows are dominate over surface heat energy exchange. The stream resembles a wetland without a clearly defined channel in some upper sections. In these areas, emergent vegetation is an important component of the heat energy processes via wind attenuation. The overall calibration is poor, with RMSE statistics in ranging from 0.87 - 1.80 °C. In particular, early season accuracies are poor (June and early July). Calibration Notes: 1. Initially too hot and variable 2. Set Overhanging Vegetation Density to 60 -100% 3. Set Sediment Depth to 0.5 m 4. Reduced Thermal Radiation (slightly) from Vegetation to 95% of Potential 5. Reduced Evaporation Coefficients a and b to 0.000000001 6. Manning's n of 0.25 -0.50 are used to calibrate to measured wetted depth 5.2.5 East Chimacum Creek Calibration of East Chimacum Creek followed similar procedures as those used for Chimacum Creek. It was difficult to maintain cool temperatures in the stream without increasing emergent/overhanging vegetation density and reducing thermal radiation from Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 121 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA vegetation. Hydraulics are calibrated to match measured wetted depth data. The overall calibration is poor, with RMSE statistics in ranging from 1.10- 1.93°C. In particular, early season accuracies are poor (June and early July). Calibration Notes: 1. Initially too hot and variable 2. Set Overhanging Vegetation Density to 65 -95% 3. Set Sediment Depth to 0.25 m 4. Reduced Thermal Radiation from Vegetation to 25% of Potential 5. Used Default Evaporation Coefficients a and b 6. Manning's n of 0.50 is used to calibrate to measured wetted depth 5.3 Validation Statistics Table 18. Model Validation Statistics Root Mean Square Correlation Error Coefficient Drainage Site RMSE R2 Little Quilcene River PGST LQ1.70 0.74 °C 0.89 PGST L 1.45 0.65 °C 0.86 Big Quilcene River PGST NFH 0.65 °C 0.92 PGST B M 0.56 °C 0.91 PGST B L 0.96 °C 0.90 Tarboo Creek JCCD TB2.45 0.85 °C 0.82 JCCD TB0.90 0.83 °C 0.77 Chimacum Creek JCCD CH 9.0 0.90 °C 0.63 JCCD CH 7.0 0.870C 0.78 JCCD CH 6.7 1.01 °C 0.59 JCCD CH 6.5 1.07 °C 0.67 JCCD CH 6.1 1.13 °C 0.64 JCCD CH 5.3 1.85 °C 0.47 JCCD CH 3.9 1.79 °C 0.62 JCCD CH 1.1 1.22 °C 0.66 JCCD CH 0.1 1.80 °C 0.67 East Chimacum Creek JCCD ECH 3.3 1.100C 0.70 JCCD ECH 2.8 1.18 °C 0.69 JCCD ECH 1.2 1.58 °C 0.65 JCCD ECH 1.0 1 1.79 °C 0.61 JCCD ECH 0.1 1 1.93 °C 0.70 Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 122 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA 5.3.1 Little Quilcene River Figure 79. Little Ouilcene Validation Statistics 29 29 27 PGST LQ1.7 RKM Z.90 —Measured 27 - -PGST LQCR RKM 1.45 — Measured 25 — Simulated Stream 25 — Simulated Stream 623 - -- Simulated Sediment 623 Simulated Sediment X21 X21 019 d 19 CL E 17 m 17 E 15 E 15 113 y 13 11 R2 =0.89 11 R2 =0.86 9 RMSE= 0.74 °C 9 RMSE = 0.65 °C 7 7 C 7 c c 3> 5 w rn a) cm n m a a 7 7 7 7 7 7 y m m N c 7 c c > >> 5 a 7 3 w w w a a a a a 7 7 7 7 m d m m N� N N r N N M O 1� N M n N N N N `" N N M O N M ^ r N N y K 4 nj Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 123 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA 21 19 617 v (� 15 i C13 F- E11 v� 9 7 5� 0 r Figure 80. Little Quilcene Longitudinal Profiles Compared to TIR Data I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I Pot I I I, ..... I I � I I• I I I ...... I I �I I I I I I I I I i 1 I I 1 I I I I I 1 I I 1 I I i I I J _ _ _ _ J _ _ _ _ _I_ _ _ _ _ L _ _ _ _ L I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 1 I I I I I I I i I I I I I I I I I 1 IL- O> O r- CO to CO N O Stream km — 7/29/04 3:00 -- 7/29/04 6:00 7/29/04 9:00 — 7/29/04 12:00 — 7/29/04 15:00 - 7/29/04 18:00 — 7/29/04 21:00 ■ ■ • Continuous Data • . TIR - 7/29 14:30 Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 124 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA 5.3.2 Big Quilcene River Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 125 Figure 81. Big Quilcene Validation Statistics 21 R2 =0.92 21 R2 =0.91 PGST BQM RKM 4.41 PGST NFH RKM 5.08 19 RMSE = 0.65 °C 19 RMSE= 0.56 °C t,17 v 17 m 1515 E13 E 13 � H E 11 Ell I LD cc H in 9 9 — Measured —Measured 7 Simulated Stream 7 - Simulated Stream - - Simulated Sediment Simulated Sediment 5 5 c > > w a a c N N > > ; Q � °( N N Cn N N fV 21 R2 =0.90 PGST BQL RKM 1.38 19 RMSE= 0.96 °C 17 L 15 E 13 Pr � 9 E11 r, 6 9 �y — Measured 7 Simulated Stream Simulated Sediment 5 > ? ? Q N r N N N a �� iOVI PG"� FH Sys f � ° +Y Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 125 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA 21 19 17 v 3 15 E13 m E 11 9 7 5 Figure 82. Big Quilcene Longitudinal Profiles Compared to TIR Data I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I I I - - - -- - -� - -- - -ti. - - -� -.r - --- +rte' - -�- - =- I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I —7/29/04 0:00 —7/29/04 3:00 7/29/04 6:00 7/29/04 9:00 - - - --- 7/29/04 12:00 —7/29/04 15:00 7/29/04 18:00 —7/29/04 21:00 ■ Continuous ' Data • Sarr�leA FLIR Co CO LO et M N O Stream km Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 126 Quileene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble SIKIallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA 5.3.3 Tarboo Creek Figure 83. Tarboo Creek Validation Statistics 25 25 - —Measured Measured 23 - I 23 - Simulated Stream Simulated Stream 21 - 21 - Simulated Sediment Simulated Sediment a 17 - all 7 1 - I 8.15 0 cL 15 E E 913 X13 E E X11 j I 9 R2=0.77 7- JCCD TB2.4 RKM 5.75 R2=0.82 7- JCCD TB0.9 RKM 1.60 RMSE = 0.83 °C RMS E=2.85,0,. 5 5 , 3 -5 75 rn m > 0 M M M CL M C a C 3 M a CL a a a C� C9 aN arn N 6 6 N N N N I'- Ob C11 N 0) CM CIJ N C6 .L 4 - CIJ CN pp ii Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 127 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA 23 21 — 19 v 0 17 w L° 15 m CL E 13 E 11 E' v) 9 7 5 Figure 84. Tarboo Creek Longitudinal Profiles Compared to TIR Data I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I ----- +----- + - - - -- - - - -- -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I S I I I I I I I 1 I t I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I 1 I I I 1 I I 1 I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - '� - - - - - -- - - - - - -1 ------ 1------ I------ I I 1 I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 1 I I 00 1� (fl d M N r- O Stream km — 7/29/04 0:00 — 7/29/04 3:00 7/29/04 6:00 7/29/04 9:00 — 7/29/04 12:00 — 7/29/04 15:00 7/29/04 18:00 — 7/29/04 21:00 a • l Continuous I( Data • Sampled FUR Prepared by Watershed Sciences ��� Page 128 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA 5.3.4 Chimacum Creek Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 129 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Figure 86. Chimacum Creek Validation Statistics (a Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 130 25 25 — Measured — Measured 23 23 - Simulated Stream Simulated Stream 21 21 �j Simulated Sediment Simulated Sediment 19 19 L 17 17 E15 15 13 13 E E 11 11 9 R2 =0.63 co 9 R2 =0.78 RMSE= 0.90 °C RMSE = 0.87 °C 7 7 JCCD CH9.0 RKM 1&45 JCCD CH7.0 RKM 1290 5 5 ............. > > > > > m C > > > > > m m ? 7 N Q Q G? T 7 % N Q Q m cn N N N t0 N N 00 r N 0) N to N 25 25 — Measured —Measured 23 23 Simulated Stream -- Simulated Stream 21 21 V - -- - Simulated Sediment v - -- Simulated Sediment 19 19 17 L 17 15 E 15 E 1� 13 F!- 13 W A 11 11 vi 9 R2 =0.59 0) 9 RZ =0.67 RMSE= 1.01 °C RMSE= 1.07 °C 7 7 JCCD CH6.7 RKM 12.60 JCCD CH6 5 RKM 1205 5 5 7 > > > 3 j m CL CL 67 7 CL 7 7 N CL N N� Q Q T T ? 7 N Q 4 N r N t0 N O N N N 01 CO <O N N Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 130 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Figure 87. Chimacum Creek Validation Statistics (b Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 131 25 25- Measured Measured 23 - 23 - Simulated Stream Simulated Stream 21 - 21 - --- Simulated Sediment Simulated Sediment 19 - 19- -a 17 - B 17 - 15- CL 15- E E 0 13 - 0 1.- 13- E E 9 - R2 =0.64 .6�4 U) 9- R2=0.47 7 M _1 RMSE= 1.13 °C 7- RMSE= 1.85 °C 5 I.JCqCq CH6 I RK 11 .3 CH5 5 1 JC19R , 3 MR 10.3 , 11 75 5 0) C) CL 06 (D C r- rn 0) CL CL co CD (N (N 0) M (0 a Cv co (N CM CD 04 0 04 25 - 25- Measured Measured 23 - 23 - Simulated Stream Simulated Stream 21 21- imulated Sediment Simulated Sediment 19 - 19- 17 - 17- 125 cL 15 - I Y cL 15- E E 13 - 13 - E E 9 - R2 =0.62 Go 9 - R2=0.66 7 RMSE = 1.79 °C 7 RMSE= 1.22 °C 5 ..JM eH,3j9 ,R" 7.78, 5 JCqQ CHI ,1 R" - Z 78, 1 1 .. ... .. ........ r- 75 75 05 0) > > 0) 0 CL CL C, CD 0? 00 N N Q N N CD ('N A N 04 25 Measured 23 - Simulated Stream 21 - Simulated Sediment 19- 17 - E S. 15 - E 13 - E 11 9 R2=0.67 RMSE = 1.80 °C 7 - JCCD CHO " 1 RKM 0.88 5 ......... ... . .. . ........ C 75 75 0) 0) CL CL CM Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 131 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble ,S,'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA 23 21 19 U 17 15 CL E 13 E � 11 9 7 Figure 88. Chimacum Creek Longitudinal Profiles Compared to TIR Data I I , ; v- - - - - -- - - - - - -- - - ; - - - - -r - - - - -- ■ - - - - 4 - - - - - L- - - - - - - - - - - 5 00 (o cr N O Co Co d' N O r r r r r Stream km —7/29/04 0:00 —7/29/04 3:00 7/29/04 6:00 7/29/04 9:00 — 7/29/0412:00 —7/29/04 15:00 7/29/0418:00 — 7/29/04 21:00 w ■ Continuous Data ■ • Sampled FUR Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 132 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA 5.3.5 East Chimacum Creek 89. East Chimacum Creek Validation Statistics (a 19 17 E16 13 F11 E A 9 7 JCCD ECH3.3 RKM 5.68 Measured i'W - Simulated Stream R2 =0.70 - Simulated Sediment RMSE= 1.10 °C 5 N fb N 5 -5 -5 N M p f� I � rn M Q Q m � m da � a @a CmI N en ^ N N An, 17 X15 ED 0 13 r11 b 9 (A 7 JCCD ECH2.8 RKM 4.00 Measured - Simulated Stream R2 =0,69 -- Simulated Sediment RMSE= 1.18 °C 5 c c c > >>> rn rn w w rn a s c� a C9 ab LO N N N N M r N N 21 19 617 15 c.13 E m 11 y 9 7 5 N C-4 CO tr N N f� d N M ;t N N Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 133 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Figure 90. East Chimacum Creek Validation Statistics (b 19 21 JCCD EC 0 KM 1.25 JCCD ECH 1 RKM 0.10 17 + 19 915 17 v £ 13 I {{ 15 f yy 113 j� E £ H9 — Measured 9 — Measured f " 7 Simulated Stream R2 =0.61 Simulated Stream R2 =0.70 - Simulated Sediment RMSE= 1.79 °C 7 - Simulated Sediment RMSE= 1.93 °C 5 5 c c c > > >> rn 7 7 a 7 rn rn rn a a a a > > q m c 7 c c > >> w w > > 7 7 a rn w a a a a 7 7 3 m 0) m 0) N N N C4 n N 4 N� N N M N N N N Figure 91. East Chimacum Creek Longitudinal Profiles Compared to TIR Data 23 %31■ 19 617 9- 120 15 E H 13 E N01 11 9 7 L _ _ _ _ I I I I 1 I I I I ii I I I I I I I I I I I I I I t I I I I I 1 1 1 I I I i I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I • I L I 1 I ■ I '1 If '" I. I I I r 1 1 I I I I I i I I I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I 1 1 I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I _ _ _ _ _ _I _ _ _ _ _I_ I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 5 0 07 00 P. w WA "t M N P O Stream km — 7/29/04 0:00 — 7/29/04 3:00 7/29/04 6:00 7/29/04 9:00 — 7/29/04 12:00 — 7/29/04 15:00 7/29/04 18:00 — 7/29/04 21:00 ■ i r l Continuous I( Data ■ • Sampled FUR Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 134 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA 5.4 WRIA 17 Stream Temperature Model Scenarios Assumptions Scenario 1— Development Trend All pending water right applications and proposed rural development water reserves are fully appropriated. The proposed rural development water 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 reserves include additional withdrawals of: 0.33 cfs in Big Quilcene, 0.98 cfs in Little Quilcene, 2.36 cfs in Chimacum, and 0.06 cfs in Tarboo subbasins. Scenario 2 — Modified Development Trend All proposed rural development water reserves are fully appropriated, but no additional pending water right applications are appropriated. The 2,3 proposed rural development water reserves include additional withdrawals of. 0.310 cfs in Big Quilcene, 0.057 cfs in Little Quilcene, 0.029 cfs in Chimacum, and 0.019 cfs in Tarboo subbasins. Scenario 3 — Restore 10% of withdrawal flows No additional water withdrawal over current conditions, with restoration of 10% of current withdrawal volumes. This includes restoration of 2.83 cfs 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 in Big Quilcene, 1.40 cfs in Little Quilcene, 1.16 cfs in Chimacum, and 0.37 cfs in Tarboo subbasins. Scenario 4 — Restore 50% of withdrawal flows No additional water withdrawal over current conditions, with restoration of 50% of current withdrawal volumes. This includes restoration of. 14.17 cfs 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 in Big Quilcene, 7.01 cfs in Little Quilcene, 5.81 cfs in Chimacum, and 1.83 cfs in Tarboo subbasins. Scenario 5 — Restore riparian vegetation No additional water withdrawal or flow restoration over current conditions, with extensive riparian forest cover restoration. In addition, this includes 7,8 reduction of active channel widths in the lower Big Quilcene River to levels approaching a condition more similar to historical, circa 1870. Scenario 6 — Reduce flows 10% Reduce average daily flows by 10% based upon 2004 Flow Data Scenario 7 — Reduce flows 30% Reduce average daily flows by 30% based upon 2004 Flow Data Scenario 8 — Increase flows 10% Increase average daily flows by 10% based upon 2004 Flow Data Scenario 9 — Combination of 5 and 8 7,8 Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 135 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Scenario Assumptions 1. Information on groundwater rights, claims, and exempt wells, as well as surface water rights and claims were derived from the WRIA 17 Stage 1 Technical Analysis (Golder and Associates, October 2000). Information on groundwater and surface water use applications were derived from the WRIA 17 Subbasin Data Summary Sheets (Cascadia Consulting Group, May 2004). Ian Jablonski (City of Port Townsend) and Bill Graham (JeffCo PUD) clarified inconsistencies reported in the Stage 1 Technical Analysis for withdrawals in the Big Quilcene River and Chimacum Creek subbasins, respectively. 2. All groundwater rights and claims were assumed to be in full use. Average annual rates were used, not the higher instantaneous limits since long -term impacts from groundwater pumping were presumed to be more important. 3. All exempt wells were assumed to be in full use at a rate of 350 gallons per day. 4. Golder and Associates (2000) reported water rights, claims, and exempt wells for the larger Dabob - Thorndyke planning area, only a portion of which includes the Tarboo Creek subbasin. Based on a review of GIS exhibits, we assumed that one- third of all Dabob - Thorndyke groundwater rights, claims, and exempt wells were in the Tarboo Creek subbasin. Similarly, we assumed that two- thirds of all Dabob- Thorndyke surface water rights and claims were in the Tarboo Creek subbasin. 5. We lacked detailed information on hydraulic continuity of groundwater withdrawal for each stream. For all groundwater withdrawals (rights, claims, and exempt wells), we used 50% of reported volumes. This assumes that either half of withdrawn volumes were in hydraulic continuity with streams and fully consumed with no return flow to streams. Alternatively, this assumes that half of withdrawn volumes return to streams via septic system recharge of shallow groundwater reserves. 6. For the Chimacum subbasin and the JeffCo PUD- operated Quimper Water System, we did not account for out -of -basin water transfers to Indian and Marrowstone Islands since current reported transfer volumes amount to only 0.07 cfs, or 1.6% of total groundwater withdrawal for the entire Chimacum subbasin. 7. Reductions in channel width in the Big Quilcene River to levels approaching historical conditions, circa 1870, were performed only for channels that currently exceed these widths. 8. Includes restoration of 15 m -wide buffers with tree heights of at least 25 m, where current conditions are less than these thresholds. Data from historical conditions, circa 1870, demonstrate that riparian vegetation in excess of 25 meter height were predominant. However, the modeled vegetation scenario assumes continuous riparian vegetation without disturbance and with uniform physical attributes, which likely overstates the ability of vegetation to shade the stream. Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 136 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA 5.4.1 Little Quilcene River Table 19. Little Quilcene River - Maximum Temperatures per Model Run STATION ID SITE NAME Model Run Tem erature C Absolute Max 7-Day Ave. Max July Aug Sept JCCD_LQ /1.7 Little Quilcene, RM 1.7 Measured 18.4 17.4 16.9 14.7 Simulated 18.7 17.6 17.4 15.4 Scenario 1 18.7 17.8 17.7 15.6 Scenario2 18.5 17.7 17.4 15.4 Scenario3 18.1 17.4 17.1 15.1 Scenario4 17.1 16.5 16.2 14.4 Scenario5 16.0 15.1 14.8 14.1 Scenario6 18.7 17.8 17.6 15.5 Scenario? 19.2 18.2 18.1 16.0 Scenario8 18.2 17.5 17.2 15.3 Scenario9 16.1 15.2 15.0 14.4 PGST_LQCR Little Quilcene at Center Rd Measured 19.4 18.4 18.1 15.5 Simulated 19.4 17.9 17.7 15.9 Scenario 1 19.0 18.1 17.9 16.0 Scenario2 18.8 17.9 17.8 15.9 Scenario3 18.5 17.7 17.5 15.6 Scenario4 17.6 17.0 16.7 14.9 Scenario5 16.2 15.7 15.2 14.5 Scenario6 18.9 18.0 17.9 16.0 Scenario? 19.3 18.3 18.3 16.3 Scenario8 18.6 17.8 17.6 15.7 Scenario9 16.3 15.8 15.4 14.8 Scenario 1- Development Trend o Scenario 2 - Modified Development Trend Scenario 6 - Reduce flows 10 /o Scenario 3 - Restore 10% of withdrawal flows Scenario - Reduce flows 1 /o 8 Scenario 8 Scenario 4 - Restore 50% of withdrawal flows -Increase flows 10% Scenario 5 - Restore riparian vegetation Scenario 9 - Combination of 5 and 8 Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 137 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Table 20. Little Quilcene River - Temperature Changes per Model Run Site - Scenario Simulated Temperature Change C Absolute Max 7-Day Ave. Max July August September JCCD L /1.7 - Scenariol 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 PGST L CR - Scenariol -0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 JCCD L /1.7 - Scenario2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 PGST L CR - Scenario2 -0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 JCCD L /1.7 - Scenario3 -0.6 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 PGST L CR - Scenario3 -0.9 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 JCCD L /1.7 - Scenario4 -1.6 -1.1 -1.2 -1.0 PGST L CR - Scenario4 -1.8 -0.9 -1.1 -0.9 JCCD L /1.7 - Scenario5 -2.7 -2.5 -2.6 -1.4 PGST L CR - Scenario5 -3.2 -2.2 -2.5 -1.3 JCCD L /1.7 - Scenario6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 PGST L CR - Scenario6 -0.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 JCCD L /1.7 - Scenario7 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 PGST L CR - Scenario? -0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 JCCD L /1.7 - Scenario8 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 PGST L CR - Scenario8 -0.8 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 JCCD L /1.7 - Scenario9 -2.7 -2.5 -2.6 -1.4 PGST L CR - Scenario9 -3.2 -2.2 -2.5 -1.3 Scenario 1- Development Trend Scenario 6 -Reduce flows 10% Scenario 2 - Modified Development Trend Scenario 3 - Restore 10% of withdrawal flows Scenario 7 - Reduce flows % 10% Scenario 4 - Restore 50% of withdrawal flows Scenario 8 - Increase flows 5 a nd 8 a Scenario 5 - Restore riparian vegetation Scenario 9 - Combination of 5 Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 138 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Figure 92. Little Quilcene, Model Scenarios — Resulting Temperature Changes ■ July ■ August a September JCCD LQ/1.7 - Scenariol PGST LQCR - Scenariol JCCD LQ11.7 - Scenario2 PGST LQCR - Scenario2 JCCD LQ/1.7 - Scenario3 PGST LQCR - Scenario3 JCCD LQ11.7 - Scenario4 PGST LQCR - Scenario4 JCCD LQ/1.7 - Scenario5 PGST —LQCR - Scenario5 JCCD LQ/1.7 - Scenario6 PGST LQCR - Scenario6 JCCD LQ/1.7 - Scenario7 PGST LQCR - Seenario7 JCCD LQ11.7 - Scenario8 PGST LQCR - Scenario8 JCCD LQ/1.7 - Scenario9 PGST LQCR - Scenario9 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 Resulting Change in 7 -Day Maximum Moving Average of Daily Maximums rC) Scenario 1— Development Trend o Scenario 2 — Modified Development Trend Scenario 6 —Reduce flows 10/0 Scenario 3 — Restore 10% of withdrawal flows Scenario 7 — Reduce flows 30 /o Scenario 4 — Restore 50% of withdrawal flows Scenario 8 — Increase flows 10% Scenario 5 — Restore riparian vegetation Scenario 9 — Combination of S and 8 Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 139 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA 93. Little Model Scenarios Measured — Simulated — Scenariol — Scenado2 — Scenario3 -- Scenario4 Scenado5 - Scenario6 — Scenario7 — Scenar1o8 — Scenario9 Thermal Limits 16 °C Rearing, Migration & Spawning All Study Streams All Year 13 °C Summer Chum Spawning & Incubation September 15 to July 1 Model Scenarios — 7 IV 18 c 17 � 16 40915 0 a C E 14 � E E 13 oa E 12 11 0 10 9 IV 18 w 0 c 17 m 16 915 E 14 o E 13 E� E 12 � 11 4 10 9 Max Moving Ave of the Daily Max I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I - --I I I I I I I I I I I I I - - -- - - -- - - - -- -- - - - -- I 1 1 _ _ J _ _ _I _ _ _ _I_ _ _ _ _ L _ L _ _ L _ _ 1 _ i I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 I I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I 1 1 I I I I I I _1_.. L._ L.___ L -- I I I I I I I I h N N ra � It: N n ; N M O n N M P� ::! N N i� 01 iz a3 2004 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 I I ! I - i -- i - -i -- I-------- ±- -I - - -' ' -- -- i _r_ T__ T-- T__,__,___I___I___I___I___r__' T_ I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I -- -- ' - - + -- -- - -- I------ I------ I- - - F' - - - -+ - - + -4 PG$T LgCR" 1r '45 I I I I I I I I I I I I za is ca n r` 403 °' rn rn rn 2004 Scenario 1– Development Trend Scenario 6 – Reduce flows 10% Scenario 2 – Modified Development Trend Scenario 3 – Restore 10% of withdrawal flows Scenario 7 – Reduce flows 30% Scenario 4 – Restore 50% of withdrawal flows Scenario 8 – Increase flows 10% Scenario 5 – Restore riparian vegetation Scenario 9 – Combination of 5 and 8 Prepared by Watershed Sciences � � � Page 140 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA 94. Little Vuilcene Model Scenarios — Lon2itudinal Yrotiles for Model scenarios 21 V 20 a 0 0 i' 19 0 N a; 18 N A 7 17 w Q 16 c 'a 15 c 0 J 14 Thermal Limits 16 °C Rearing, Migration & Spawning All Study Streams, All Year 13 °C Summer Chum Spawning & Incubation September 15 to July 1 a? Oq Cq OR Oq OR CR OR Cq Oq rn ad i. W W) v ai cm o 2004 Model Scenarios — Measured — Simulated — Scenariol — Scenario2 — Scenario3 --Scenario4 - Scenario5 ---- Scenado6 — Scenario7 — Scenado8 — Scenado9 Scenario 1- Development Trend o Scenario 2 - Modified Development Trend Scenario 6 - Reduce flows 10/0 Scenario 3 - Restore 10% of withdrawal flows Scenario 7 - Reduce flows /o 1 Scenario 4 - Restore 50% of withdrawal flows Scenario 8 - Increase flows 10% Scenario 5 - Restore riparian vegetation Scenario 9 - Combination of 5 and 8 Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 141 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA 5.4.2 Big Quilcene River Table 21. Big Quilcene River - Maximum Temperatures per Model Run STATION ID SITE NAME Model Run Tem erature °C Absolute Max 7- ay Ave. Max July Aug Sept PGST_NFH Big Quilcene @ Hatchery Measured 17.4 16.6 16.9 14.5 Simulated 17.5 15.7 16.7 14.6 Scenario 1 17.6 15.7 16.7 14.6 Scenario2 17.6 15.7 16.7 14.6 Scenario3 17.2 15.5 16.4 14.4 Scenario4 16.2 15.0 15.6 13.7 Scenario5 14.4 13.8 14.0 12.4 Scenario6 18.5 16.1 17.4 15.2 Scenario7 22.4 17.5 20.1 18.0 Scenario8 16.9 15.4 16.2 14.2 Scenario9 14.2 13.8 13.9 12.3 PGST_BQM Big Quilcene, Middle Measured 16.8 16.2 16.4 14.1 Simulated 17.6 15.6 16.6 14.7 Scenario l 17.7 15.6 16.7 14.7 Scenario2 17.7 15.6 16.7 14.7 Scenario3 17.3 15.5 16.4 14.5 Scenario4 16.4 15.2 15.8 13.9 Scenario5 14.3 13.7 13.8 12.3 Scenario6 19.4 15.9 17.4 15.9 Scenario7 18.4 16.3 17.4 15.4 Scenario8 16.8 15.3 16.1 14.2 Scenario9 14.2 13.7 13.7 12.2 PGST_BQL Big Quilcene, Lower Measured 18.6 17.9 18.0 15.5 Simulated 19.5 17.3 18.4 15.8 Scenario 1 19.5 17.4 18.4 1 15.9 Scenario2 19.5 17.4 18.4 15.9 Scenario3 19.1 17.2 18.1 15.6 Scenario4 18.1 16.5 17.3 15.0 Scenario5 15.0 14.3 14.3 12.8 Scenario6 20.9 17.8 19.1 16.6 Scenario7 21.4 18.6 19.9 17.0 Scenario8 18.6 16.9 17.7 15.4 Scenario9 14.8 14.2 14.2 12.7 Prepared by Watershed Sciences ��� Page 142 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Table 22. Big Quilcene River - Temperature Changes per Model Run Site - Scenario Simulated Tem erature Change °C Absolute Max 7-Day Ave. Max July August September PGST NFH - Scenariol 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 PGST B M - Scenariol 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 PGST B L - Scenariol 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 PGST NFH - Scenario2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 PGST B M - Scenario2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 PGST B L - Scenario2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 PGST NFH - Scenario3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 PGST B M - Scenario3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 PGST B L - Scenario3 -0.4 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 PGST NFH - Scenario4 -1.3 -0.7 -1.1 -0.9 PGST B M - Scenario4 -1.2 -0.5 -0.8 -0.7 PGST B L - Scenario4 -1.4 -0.8 -1.1 -0.8 PGST NFH - Scenario5 -3.1 -1.8 -2.7 -2.2 PGST B M - Scenario5 -3.3 -1.9 -2.8 -2.4 PGST B L - Scenario5 -4.5 -3.0 -4.0 -3.0 PGST NFH - Scenario6 1.0 0.4 0.7 0.6 PGST B M - Scenario6 1.8 0.3 0.8 1.2 PGST B L - Scenario6 1.4 0.4 0.8 0.8 PGST NFH - Scenario7 4.9 1.8 3.4 3.4 PGST B M - Scenario7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 PGST B L - Scenario7 1.9 1.3 1.5 1.2 PGST NFH - Scenario8 -0.6 -0.3 -0.5 -0.4 PGST B M - Scenario8 -0.8 -0.3 -0.6 -0.5 PGST B L - Scenario8 -0.9 -0.4 -0.6 -0.5 PGST NFH - Scenario9 -3.3 -1.9 -2.8 -2.3 PGST B M - Scenario9 -3.4 -1.9 -2.9 1 -2.4 PGST B L - Scenario9 -4.7 -3.1 -4.2 -3.2 Scenario 1- Development Trend Scenario 6 - Reduce flows 10% Scenario 2 - Modified Development Trend o 8 1 /o Scenario 3 - Restore 10% of withdrawal flows Scenario - Reduce flows Scenario 4 - Restore 50% of withdrawal flows Scenario 8 - Increase flows 10% Scenario 5 - Restore riparian vegetation Scenario 9 - Combination of 5 and 8 Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 143 I Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Figure 95. Big Quilcene Model Scenarios — Resulting Temperature Changes ■ July ■ August r September PGST NFH - Scenariol PGST BQM - Scenariol PGST BQL - Scenariol PGST NFH - Scenario2 PGST - BQM - Scenario2 I I 1 PGST BQL - Scenario2 PGST NFH - Scenario3 PGST BQM - ScenadO PGST-BQL - Scenado3 I I I I I I I I PGST _ NFH - Scenario4 I I I I I I I PGST BQM - Scenario4 PGST _ BQL - Scenario4 I I I I I I I PGST NFH - Scenario5 PGST BQM - Scenario5 PGST BQL - Scenario5 PGST NFH - Scenario6 PGST BQM - Scenario6 PGST BQL - Scenado6 PGST NFH - Scenario7 PGST _ BQM - Scenario7 I I I I I I I I PGST BQL - Scenario7 PGST—NFH - Scenario8 PGST BQM - Scenario8 PGST _ BQL - Scenario8 I I I I I I I I PGST NFH - Scenario9 PGST BQM - Scenario9 - I I I I I I PGST-BQL - Scenario9 I 1 I I -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 Resulting Change in 7 -Day Maximum Moving Average of Daily Maximums ( *C) Scenario 1— Development Trend Scenario 6 —Reduce flows 10% Scenario 2 — Modified Development Trend o Scenario 3 — Restore 10% of withdrawal flows Scenario 7 — Reduce flows 30 /o Scenario 4 —Restore 50% of withdrawal flows Scenario 8— Increase flows 10% Scenario 5 — Restore riparian vegetation Scenario 9 — Combination of 5 and 8 Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 144 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Figure 96. Big Quilcene Model Scenarios — 7 -Day Max Moving Ave of the Daily Max Model Scenarios —Measured Simulated Scenadol Scenario2 Scenario3 Scenario4 Scenario5 -- - Scenario6 Scenario? Scenario8 Scenado9 Thermal Limits 16 °C Rearing, Migration & Spawning All Study Streams All Year 13 °C Summer Chum Spawning & Incubation >tember 15 to July 1 21 >. 20 a 19 0 18 17 a : 18 w s ; is 14 ¢ 13 E 12 g 11 10 9 21 20 a 19 m 18 17 a a 18 15 14 2 13 E 12 11 4 10 9 za I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I --- - - - - -- -- - - - - -- I I I I I I I I I I 1 I 1 I _ I I I I I I I r- I 1 I I 1 I I_ _ -I- _ -4 I I I I -- -+ +-- I - --� -- -- I - -'4 -- - 1 - -+ - I I I I I I I I I I I 1,- 1 11 I 1 1 I -- 1-- T-- r-- I-- r-- - r-- -- 1-- 7-- r-- I - -� -- - -I -� N r N N _O I� N cry 9 N fa to 1� n r � � � � Oi Oi Oi 2004 LPPST$Pg4- 41-- T-- ;-- ,-- r-- - - - -�- -I I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I 1 1 1 --------------- I I 1 I 1 __TiI I I I- -- 'J -- L - -I -ij I I I I I I I I I I I ! I 1 I I I I I '. I I I I I I I I I I --- I-- T-- r-- 1-- r-- r- -- -r - -r- r-- r-- 1 - -_T a 20 a 19 m 18 17 R 18 W M .5. 15 2JE 14 � 2 13 E 12 11 Q 10 9 M c 03 as 2004 I -_J_ 'I__J_ I- - '4 - L -1- - -I - }' - -I- - 4 I I I I I I I I I I 1 I I 2004 Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 145 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA 20 V g 19 a °o 18 0 N N 17 m 16 w LO 15 E '6 14 0 J 13 97. 13i2 Ouilcene Model Scenarios — Loni?itudim Thermal Limits 16 °C Rearing, Migration & Spawning All Study Streams, All Year 13 °C Summer Chum Spawning & Incubation September 15 to July 1 Profiles for Model Scenarios -- r - -r -- - -� - - -i -- - - -r -- r -.7 - - -r- - - ! - - ! - - -- - - -' -- a> rn v rn v G? 114: o� v rn v rn v 2004 Model Scenarios — Measured — Simulated — Scenariol — Scenario2 — ScenI — ScenI - ScenI - - -- Scenario6 — Scenario7 — Scenario8 — Scenario9 Scenario 1– Development Trend Scenario 6 –Reduce flows 10% Scenario 2 – Modified Development Trend o Scenario 3 – Restore 10% of withdrawal flows Scenario 7 – Reduce flows 30 /o Scenario 4 – Restore 50% of withdrawal flows Scenario 8 – Increase flows 10% Scenario 5 – Restore riparian vegetation Scenario 9 – Combination of 5 and 8 Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 146 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA 5.4.3 Tarboo Creek Table 23. Tarboo Creek - Maximum Temperatures per Model Run STATION ID SITE NAME Model Run Tem erature °C Absolute Max 7-Day Ave. Max July Aug Sept JCCD_TB /2.6 Tarboo Creek, RM 2.6 Measured 16.2 16.2 15.8 14.6 Simulated 16.3 15.7 15.5 14.6 Scenario 1 16.3 15.7 15.5 14.7 Scenario2 16.2 15.7 15.5 14.7 Scenario3 16.0 15.5 15.3 1 14.5 Scenario4 15.5 15.0 14.8 14.0 Scenario5 16.2 15.7 15.4 14.3 Scenario6 16.3 15.7 15.5 14.7 Scenario? 16.3 15.8 15.6 14.7 Scenario8 16.2 15.7 15.5 14.6 Scenario9 16.2 15.7 15.4 14.3 JCCD_TB /0.9 Tarboo Creek, RM 0.9 Measured 17.4 16.8 16.5 15.5 Simulated 18.4 17.6 17.6 16.8 Scenario l 18.4 17.6 17.6 16.9 Scenario2 18.4 17.6 17.6 16.8 Scenario3 18.1 17.4 17.3 16.6 Scenario4 17.3 16.7 16.6 15.9 Scenario5 16.5 15.9 15.8 15.3 Scenario6 18.4 17.6 17.6 16.9 Scenario? 18.5 17.7 17.6 16.9 Scenario8 18.3 17.5 17.5 16.8 Scenario9 16.5 15.9 15.8 15.3 Scenario 1- Development Trend o Scenario 2 - Modified Development Trend Scenario 6 - Reduce flows 10/0 Scenario 3 - Restore 10% of withdrawal flows Scenario 7 - Reduce flows /o 1 Scenario 4 - Restore 50% of withdrawal flows Scenario 8 - Increase flows 10% Scenario 5 - Restore riparian vegetation Scenario 9 - Combination of 5 and 8 Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 147 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Table 24. Tarboo Creek - Temperature Changes per Model Run Site - Scenario Simulated Temperature Change C Absolute Max 7 Day Ave. Max July August September JCCD TB/2.6 - Scenariol 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 JCCD TB /0.9 - Scenario l. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 JCCD TB /2.6 - Scenario2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 JCCD TB /0.9 - Scenario2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 JCCD TB /2.6 - Scenario3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 JCCD TB /0.9 - Scenario3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 JCCD TB /2.6 - Scenario4 -0.8 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 JCCD TB /0.9 - Scenario4 -1.1 -0.9 -1.0 -1.0 JCCD TB /2.6 - Scenario5 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3 JCCD TB /0.9 - Scenario5 -1.9 -1.7 -1.8 -1.5 JCCD TB /2.6 - Scenario6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 JCCD TB /0.9 - Scenario6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 JCCD TB/2.6 - Scenario7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 JCCD TB /0.9 - Scenario7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 JCCD TB /2.6 - Scenario8 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 JCCD TB /0.9 - Scenario8 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 JCCD TB /2.6 - Scenario9 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 JCCD TB /0.9 - Scenario9 -1.9 -1.7 -1.8 -1.6 Scenario 1- Development Trend Scenario 6 - Reduce flows 10% Scenario 2 - Modified Development Trend o Scenario 3 - Restore 10% of withdrawal flows Scenario 7 - Reduce flows 30 /o Scenario 4 - Restore 50% of withdrawal flows Scenario 8 - Increase flows 10% Scenario 5 - Restore riparian vegetation Scenario 9 - Combination of 5 and 8 Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 148 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Figure 98. Tarboo Creek Model Scenarios — Resulting Temperature Changes ■ July ■ August ■ September JCCD TB/2.6 - Scenario1 JCCD TB /0.9 - Scenariol JCCD TB/2.6 - Scenario2 JCCD—TB/0.9 - Scenario2 JCCD TB/2.6 - Scenario3 JCCD TB /0.9 - Scenario3 JCCD TB /2.6 - Scenario4 JCCD TB /0.9 - Scenario4 JCCD TB/2.6 - Scenario5 JCCD TB/0.9 - Scenario5 JCCD TB/2.6 - Scenario6 JCCD TB /0.9 - Scenario6 JCCD—TB/2.6 - Scenario7 JCCD TB /0.9 - Scenario7 JCCD TB /2.6 - Scenario8 JCCD TB /0.9 - Scenario8 JCCD TB/2.6 - Scenario9 JCCD TB /0.9 - Scenario9 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 Resulting Change in 7 -Day Maximum Moving Average of Daily Maximums ( *C) Scenario 1— Development Trend Scenario 6 — Reduce flows 10% Scenario 2 — Modified Development Trend Scenario 3 — Restore 10% of withdrawal flows Scenario 7 — Reduce flows 30 /o Scenario 4 — Restore 50% of withdrawal flows Scenario 8 — Increase flows 10% Scenario 5 — Restore riparian vegetation Scenario 9 — Combination of 5 and 8 Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 149 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Figure 99. Tarboo Creek Model Scenarios — 7 -Day Max Moving Ave of the Daily Max Model Scenarios Measured —Simulated — Scenariol — Scenado2 — Scenario3 — Scenario4 - Scenarios ... -- _. Scenado6 — Scenado7 — Scenario8 — Scenado9 Thermal Limits 16 °C Rearing, Migration & Spawning All Study Streams All Year 13 °C Summer Chum Spawning & Incubation September 15 to July 1 18 T w 17 0 m 16 Q 15 a a E 14 � E E 1 13 2 E 12 o' 11 10 b N W CO fa ca 9 i_ I 1 1 1 i I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I 1 I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I 1 1 I I I I I I I I I - -r - r- -r - -rt- - - - -I - --r--r--r--r--Y- 1 I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I 1 J - _ J _ _ _I_ _ _1_ _ _ L L _ _ 1 - _ 1 _ _ 1 _ I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 -- I - - - I - -- I I I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I --+--+--+--+-- -1 -------- i--- I--- I--- F-- F - - + -- - I I I I I I I I I I I I I t I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I f I I I I I I 1 JGCD t2.4 KM .75 18 T 17 m 16 Q 15 E 14 M E E1 13 E 12 11 10 M N \ M O V, N M 1' r N N 2004 I I I I I 1 I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I 1 - -L -- -- - -� - -J - -- ----- I- - -I - -- -- L---- - - - - -- I I I 1 I I I I I I 1 1 1 I I I I I I 41- I - - I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 11 1 I I I I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I t I I I I I I I I I I I I �ni/n Tdr1 n dvu •ICn I I I I I I I I I I In O N N ^ r N N ^MOS O N Ch N N 2004 Scenario 1– Development Trend o Scenario 2 – Modified Development Trend Scenario 6 –Reduce flows 10/0 Scenario 3 – Restore 10% of withdrawal flows Scenario 7 – Reduce flows /o Scenario 4 – Restore 50% of withdrawal flows Scenario –Increase flows 1 10% 9 Scenario 9 Scenario 5 – Restore riparian vegetation – Combination of 5 and 8 Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 150 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Figure 100. Tarboo Creek Model Scenarios — Longitudinal Profiles for Model Scenarios 20 V 19 CL 00 M 18 a 0 0 N 17 m 16 w 0 15 c 14 c 0 J 13 Thermal Limits 16 °C Rearing, Migration & Spawning All Study Streams, All Year 13 °C Summer Chum Spawning & Incubation September 15 to July 1 OR ao 0o Co aq CR OR w I­ Co KO 19t M N 0 2004 Model Scenarios — Measured — Simulated — Scenadol — Scenario2 — Scenado3 — Scenado4 - - - - -- Scenario5 — Scenado6 — Scenario7 — Scenario8 — Scenado9 Scenario 1— Development Trend a Scenario 2 — Modified Development Trend Scenario 6 —Reduce flows 10/0 Scenario 3 — Restore 10% of withdrawal flows Scenario 7 — Reduce flows /o 1 Scenario 4 — Restore 50% of withdrawal flows Scenario 8 — Increase flows 10% Scenario 5 — Restore riparian vegetation Scenario 9 — Combination of 5 and 8 Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 151 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA 5.4.4 Chimacum Creek Table 25. Chimacum Creek - Maximum Temperatures per Model Run STATION ID SITE NAME Model Run Tem erature C 7 -Da Ave. Max Absolute Max July Aug Sept JCCD CH/9.0 Chimacum Creek, RM 9.0 Measured 16.4 15.7 15.1 13.7 Chimacum Creek, RM 9.0 Simulated 16.6 16.2 15.6 14.5 Chimacum Creek, RM 9.0 Scenariol 16.9 16.5 15.8 14.9 Chimacum Creek, RM 9.0 Scenario2 16.7 16.2 15.6 14.5 Chimacum Creek, RM 9.0 Scenario3 16.4 15.9 15.3 14.4 Chimacum Creek, RM 9.0 Scenario4 15.7 15.3 14.7 13.9 Chimacum Creek, RM 9.0 Scenario5 16.6 16.1 15.5 14.5 Chimacum Creek, RM 9.0 Scenario6 16.7 16.2 15.6 14.6 Chimacum Creek, RM 9.0 Scenario? 16.9 16.4 15.8 14.7 Chimacum Creek, RM 9.0 Scenario8 16.6 16.1 15.5 14.5 Chimacum Creek, RM 9.0 Scenario9 16.6 16.1 15.5 14.5 JCCD CH/7.0 Chimacum Creek, RM 7.0 Measured 16.4 14.7 14.6 14.2 Chimacum Creek, RM 7.0 Simulated 16.9 16.2 16.2 15.7 Chimacum Creek, RM 7.0 Scenariol 19.1 17.4 18.1 18.1 Chimacum Creek, RM 7.0 Scenario2 16.9 16.2 16.2 15.7 Chimacum Creek, RM 7.0 Scenario3 16.3 15.7 15.7 15.3 Chimacum Creek, RM 7.0 Scenario4 15.3 14.9 14.8 14.3 Chimacum Creek, RM 7.0 Scenario5 16.4 15.9 15.8 15.1 Chimacum Creek, RM 7.0 Scenario6 17.1 16.3 16.3 15.8 Chimacum Creek, RM 7.0 Scenario? 17.9 17.1 17.1 16.5 Chimacum Creek, RM 7.0 Scenario8 16.8 16.1 16.1 15.6 Chimacum Creek, RM 7.0 Scenario9 16.3 15.8 15.7 15.0 JCCD CH/6.7 Chimacum Creek, RM 6.7 Measured 16.4 16.0 15.4 14.6 Chimacum Creek, RM 6.7 Simulated 16.4 16.0 16.1 1 15.7 Chimacum Creek, RM 6.7 Scenariol 18.5 17.4 17.8 17.9 Chimacum Creek, RM 6.7 Scenario2 16.4 16.1 16.1 15.7 Chimacum Creek, RM 6.7 Scenario3 15.8 15.6 15.6 15.2 Chimacum Creek, RM 6.7 Scenario4 15.0 14.8 14.7 14.3 Chimacum Creek, RM 6.7 Scenario5 15.9 15.6 15.5 15.0 Chimacum Creek, RM 6.7 Scenario6 16.5 16.2 16.2 15.8 Chimacum Creek, RM 6.7 Scenario? 17.2 16.9 16.9 16.5 Chimacum Creek, RM 6.7 Scenario8 16.3 15.9 16.0 15.6 Chimacum Creek, RM 6.7 Scenario9 15.8 15.5 15.4 14.9 JCCD CH /6.5 Chimacum Creek, RM 6.5 Measured 17.4 16.6 16.0 14.9 Chimacum Creek, RM 6.5 Simulated 16.8 16.6 16.6 16.0 Chimacum Creek, RM 6.5 Scenariol 18.7 17.6 17.8 17.9 Chimacum Creek, RM 6.5 Scenario2 16.9 16.6 16.7 16.0 Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 152 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA STATION ID SITE NAME Model Run Tem erature °C 7 -Da Ave. Max Absolute Max July Au Se t Chimacum Creek, RM 6.5 Scenario3 16.4 16.2 16.2 15.6 Chimacum Creek, RM 6.5 Scenario4 15.5 1 15.3 15.1 14.5 Chimacum Creek, RM 6.5 Scenario5 16.4 16.0 15.9 15.3 Chimacum Creek, RM 6.5 Scenario6 17.0 16.7 16.7 16.1 Chimacum Creek, RM 6.5 Scenario? 17.6 17.3 17.3 16.7 Chimacum Creek, RM 6.5 Scenario8 16.7 16.5 16.6 15.9 Chimacum Creek, RM 6.5 Scenario9 16.3 15.9 15.8 15.3 JCCD CH/6.1 Chimacum Creek, RM 6.1 Measured 19.0 18.1 17.4 15.5 Chimacum Creek, RM 6.1 Simulated 17.5 17.1 17.1 16.4 Chimacum Creek, RM 6.1 Scenariol 19.2 1 18.2 18.2 18.2 Chimacum Creek, RM 6.1 Scenario2 17.6 17.2 17.2 16.5 Chimacum Creek, RM 6.1 Scenario3 17.0 16.7 16.7 16.0 Chimacum Creek, RM 6.1 Scenario4 15.9 15.7 15.6 14.9 Chimacum Creek, RM 6.1 Scenario5 16.4 16.0 15.9 15.5 Chimacum Creek, RM 6.1 Scenario6 17.7 17.2 17.3 16.5 Chimacum Creek, RM 6.1 Scenariol 18.3 17.8 17.9 17.1 Chimacum Creek, RM 6.1 Scenario8 17.4 17.0 17.0 16.4 Chimacum Creek, RM 6.1 Scenario9 16.4 16.0 15.9 15.5 JCCD CH /5.3 Chimacum Creek, RM 5.3 Measured 1 19.2 18.7 18.1 16.8 Chimacum Creek, RM 5.3 Simulated 18.4 18.0 18.0 17.1 Chimacum Creek, RM 5.3 Scenariol 20.6 19.4 19.4 19.1 Chimacum Creek, RM 5.3 Scenario2 18.5 18.0 18.0 17.1 Chimacum Creek, RM 5.3 Scenario3 17.7 17.3 17.3 16.6 Chimacum Creek, RM 5.3 Scenario4 16.1 15.9 15.9 15.3 Chimacum Creek, RM 5.3 Scenario5 16.6 16.1 16.1 15.8 Chimacum Creek, RM 5.3 Scenario6 18.6 18.1 18.2 17.2 Chimacum Creek, RM 5.3 Scenariol 19.5 18.9 19.0 17.8 Chimacum Creek, RM 5.3 Scenario8 18.3 1 17.8 17.8 17.0 Chimacum Creek, RM 5.3 Scenario9 16.5 16.1 16.0 15.7 JCCD CH /3.9 Chimacum Creek, RM 3.9 Measured 22.2 21.3 20.5 17.3 Chimacum Creek, RM 3.9 Simulated 21.3 20.6 20.3 18.1 Chimacum Creek, RM 3.9 Scenariol 22.3 21.6 21.1 18.8 Chimacum Creek, RM 3.9 Scenario2 1 21.4 20.6 20.3 18.1 Chimacum Creek, RM 3.9 Scenario3 20.4 19.7 19.5 17.7 Chimacum Creek, RM 3.9 Scenario4 18.0 17.7 17.4 16.4 Chimacum Creek, RM 3.9 Scenario5 16.4 16.0 15.8 15.6 Chimacum Creek, RM 3.9 Scenario6 21.5 1 20.7 20.4 18.2 Chimacum Creek, RM 3.9 Scenariol 22.1 21.3 20.9 18.5 Chimacum Creek, RM 3.9 Scenario8 21.1 20.4 20.1 18.0 Chimacum Creek, RM 3.9 Scenario9 16.3 16.0 1 15.7 15.6 JCCD CH /1.1 Chimacum Creek, RM 1.1 Measured 18.7 18.2 1 17.3 16.2 Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 153 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA STATION ID SITE NAME Model Run Tem erature C 7 -Da Ave. Max Absolute Max July Aug Sept Chimacum Creek, RM 1.1 Simulated 18.8 18.3 18.4 17.1 Chimacum Creek, RM 1.1 Scenariol 18.9 18.5 18.5 17.5 Chimacum Creek, RM 1.1 Scenario2 18.8 18.3 18.4 1 17.1 Chimacum Creek, RM 1.1 Scenario3 18.6 18.2 18.2 16.9 Chimacum Creek, RM 1.1 Scenario4 18.0 17.8 17.7 16.5 Chimacum Creek, RM 1.1 Scenario5 16.0 15.2 15.1 15.2 Chimacum Creek, RM 1.1 Scenario6 18.3 17.8 17.8 17.4 Chimacum Creek, RM 1.1 Scenario? 18.5 18.0 18.0 17.6 Chimacum Creek, RM 1.1 Scenario8 18.2 17.7 17.7 17.3 Chimacum Creek, RM 1.1 Scenario9 16.0 15.1 15.1 15.2 JCCD CH /0.1 Chimacum Creek, RM 0.1 Measured 19.7 18.7 18.0 16.3 Chimacum Creek, RM 0.1 Simulated 19.0 18.5 18.5 17.4 Chimacum Creek, RM 0.1 Scenario 1 19.0 18.5 18.5 17.7 Chimacum Creek, RM 0.1 Scenario2 19.0 18.5 18.5 1 17.4 Chimacum Creek, RM 0.1 Scenario3 19.0 18.5 18.5 1 17.3 Chimacum Creek, RM 0.1 Scenario4 18.6 18.2 18.2 16.8 Chimacum Creek, RM 0.1 Scenario5 16.1 15.4 15.2 15.3 Chimacum Creek, RM 0.1 Scenario6 18.6 18.1 18.1 17.5 Chimacum Creek, RM 0.1 Scenario? 18.8 18.2 18.2 17.6 Chimacum Creek, RM 0.1 Scenario8 18.5 18.1 18.0 17.4 Chimacum Creek, RM 0.1 1 Scenario9 16.1 15.4 15.2 15.3 Scenario 1- Development Trend ° Scenario 2 - Modified Development Trend Scenario 6 -Reduce flows 10 /o Scenario 3 - Restore 10% of withdrawal flows Scenario 7 - Reduce flows 30% Scenario 4 - Restore 50% of withdrawal flows Scenario 8 - Increase flows 10% Scenario 5 - Restore riparian vegetation Scenario 9 - Combination of 5 and 8 Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 154 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Table 26. Chimacum Creek - Temperature Changes per Model Run Simulated Temperature Change (°C) Absolute 7 -Day Ave. Max Site - Scenario Max July August September JCCD_CH/9.0 - Scenariol 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 JCCD_CH/7.0 - Scenariol 2.2 1.2 2.0 2.4 JCCD_CH/6.7 - Scenariol 2.1 1.3 1.8 2.2 JCCD_CH/6.5 - Scenariol 1.9 1.0 1.2 1.9 JCCD_CH/6.1 - Scenariol 1.7 1.1 1.1 1.8 JCCD_CH/5.3 - Scenariol 2.2 1.4 1.4 2.0 JCCD_CH/3.9 - Scenariol 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.7 JCCD CH/1.1- Scenariol 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 JCCD_CH/0.1 - Scenariol 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 JCCD_CH/9.0 - Scenario2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 JCCD_CH/7.0 - Scenario2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 JCCD_CH/6.7 - Scenario2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 JCCD_CH/6.5 - Scenario2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 JCCD_CH/6.1 - Scenario2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 JCCD_CH/5.3 - Scenario2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 JCCD_CH/3.9 - Scenario2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 JCCD_CH/1.1 - Scenario2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 JCCD_CH/0.1 - Scenario2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 JCCD_CH/9.0 - Scenario3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 JCCD_CH/7.0 - Scenario3 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 JCCD_CH/6.7 - Scenario3 -0.6 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 JCCD_CH/6.5 - Scenario3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 JCCD_CH/6.1 - Scenario3 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 JCCD_CH/5.3 - Scenario3 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.5 JCCD_CH/3.9 - Scenario3 -0.9 -0.8 -0.8 -0.4 JCCD_CH/1.1 - Scenario3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 JCCD_CH/0.1 - Scenario3 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 JCCD_CH/9.0 - Scenario4 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 -0.6 JCCD_CH/7.0 - Scenario4 -1.6 -1.2 -1.4 -1.4 JCCD_CH/6.7 - Scenario4 -1.4 -1.2 -1.4 -1.4 JCCD_CH/6.5 - Scenario4 -1.3 -1.3 -1.5 -1.5 JCCD_CH/6.1 - Scenario4 -1.6 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6 JCCD_CH/5.3 - Scenario4 -2.3 -2.0 -2.1 -1.8 JCCD_CH/3.9 - Scenario4 -3.3 -2.9 -2.8 -1.7 JCCD_CH/l.I - Scenario4 -0.8 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 JCCD_CH/0.1 - Scenario4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.6 JCCD_CH/9.0 - Scenario5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 JCCD_CH/7.0 - Scenario5 -0.5 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 JCCD_CH/6.7 - Scenario5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.7 JCCD_CH/6.5 - Scenario5 -0.4 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 JCCD_CH/6.1 - Scenario5 -1.1 -1.2 -1.3 -0.9 JCCD_CH/5.3 - Scenario5 -1.8 -1.9 -1.9 -1.3 JCCD CH/3.9 - Scenario5 -4.9 4.5 -4.5 -2.5 Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 155 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Scenario 1- Development Trend Scenario 6 - Reduce flows 10% Scenario 2 - Modified Development Trend Scenario 3 - Restore 10% of withdrawal flows Scenario 7 - Reduce flows % 1 Scenario 4 - Restore 50% of withdrawal flows Scenario 8 - Increase flows 10% Scenario 5 - Restore riparian vegetation Scenario 9 - Combination of 5 and 8 Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 156 Simulated Temperature Change CC) Absolute 7 -Day Ave. Max Site - Scenario Max July August September JCCD_CH/1.1 - Scenario5 -2.8 -3.2 -3.3 -1.9 JCCD_CH/0.1 - Scenario5 -2.9 -3.1 -3.3 -2.1 JCCD_CH/9.0 - Scenario6 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 JCCD_CH/7.0 - Scenario6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 JCCD_CH/6.7 - Scenario6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 JCCD_CH/6.5 - Scenario6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 JCCD_CH/6.1 - Scenario6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 JCCD_CH/5.3 - Scenario6 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 JCCD_CH/3.9 - Scenario6 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 JCCD_CHJ1.1 - Scenario6 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 0.3 JCCD_CH/0.1 - Scenario6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 0.1 JCCD_CH/9.0 - Scenario7 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 JCCD_CH/7.0 - Scenario7 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 JCCD_CH/6.7 - Scenario7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 JCCD_CH/6.5 - Scenario7 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 JCCD_CH/6.1 - Scenario7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 JCCD_CH/5.3 - Scenario7 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.8 JCCD_CW3.9 - Scenario7 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.3 JCCD_CH/1.1 - Scenario7 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 0.5 JCCD_CH/0.1 - Scenario7 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 0.2 JCCD_CH/9.0 - Scenario8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 JCCD_CH17.0 - Scenario8 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 JCCD_CH/6.7 - Scenario8 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 JCCD_CH/6.5 - Scenario8 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 JCCD_CH/6.1 - Scenario8 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 JCCD_CHJ5.3 - Scenario8 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 JCCD_CW3.9 - Scenario8 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 JCCD_CH/1.1 - Scenario8 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 0.2 JCCD_CH/0.1 - Scenario8 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 0.0 JCCD_CH/9.0 - Scenario9 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 JCCD_CH/7.0 - Scenario9 -0.6 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 JCCD_CH/6.7 - Scenario9 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.8 JCCD_CH/6.5 - Scenario9 -0.5 -0.7 -0.8 -0.7 JCCD_CH/6.1 - Scenario9 -1.1 -1.2 -1.3 -1.0 JCCD_CH/5.3 - Scenario9 -1.9 -1.9 -2.0 -1.3 JCCD_CH/3.9 - Scenario9 -5.0 4.6 -4.6 -2.5 JCCD_CH/1.1 - Scenario9 -2.8 -3.2 -3.3 -1.9 JCCD CH/0.1 - Scenario9 -2.9 -3.1 -3.3 -2.2 Scenario 1- Development Trend Scenario 6 - Reduce flows 10% Scenario 2 - Modified Development Trend Scenario 3 - Restore 10% of withdrawal flows Scenario 7 - Reduce flows % 1 Scenario 4 - Restore 50% of withdrawal flows Scenario 8 - Increase flows 10% Scenario 5 - Restore riparian vegetation Scenario 9 - Combination of 5 and 8 Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 156 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA l U l . C;h;imacum Creek Model Scenarios - Kesultmg Temperature Changes (a ■ July ■ August a September JCCD_CH/9.0 - Scenariol JCCD_CHR.0 - Scenariol JCCD_CH /6.7 - Scenariol JCCD_CH /6.5 - Scenariol JCCD_CH/6.1 - Scenariol JCCD_CH/5.3-Scenariol JCCD_CH/3.9 - Scenariol JCCD_CH /1.1 - Scenariol JCCD_CH /0.1 - Scenariol JCCD_CH/9.0-Scenario2 JCCD_CH17.0 - Scenario2 JCCD_CH /6.7 - Scenario2 JCCD_CH/6.5 - Scenario2 JCCD_CH /6.1 - Scenario2 JCCD_CH /5.3 - Scenario2 JCCD_CH /3.9 - Scenario2 JCCD_CH /1.1 - Scenario2 JCCD_CH /0.1 - Scenario2 JCCD_CH/9.0 - Scenario3 JCCD_CH17.0 - Scenario3 JCCD_CH /6.7 - Scenario3 JCCD_CH/6.5 - Scenario3 JCCD_CH /6.1 - Scenario3 JCCD_CH /5.3 - Scenario3 JCCD_CH /3.9 - Scenario3 JCCD_CH /1.1 - Scenario3 JCCD_CH /0.1 - Scenario3 JCCD_CH/9.0 - Scenario4 JCCD_CH17.0 - Scenario4 JCCD_CH /6.7 - Scenario4 JCCD_CH /6.5 - Scenario4 JCCD_CH /6.1 - Scenario4 JCCD_CH/5.3-Scenario4 JCCD_CH /3.9 - Scenario4 JCCD_CH /1.1 - Scenario4 JCCD_CH /0.1 - Scenario4 JCCD_CH/9.0 - Scenario5 JCCD_CH/7.0 - Scenario5 JCCD_CH/6.7 - Scenario5 JCCD_CH /6.5 - Scenario5 JCCD_CH /6.1 - Scenario5 JCCD_CH /5.3 - Scenario5 JCCD- CH /3.9 - Scenario5 JCCD_CH /1.1 - Scenario5 JCCD CH /0.1 - Scenario5 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 Resulting Change in 7 -Day Maximum Moving Average of Daily Maximums (*C) Scenario 1- Development Trend o Scenario 2 - Modified Development Trend Scenario 6 -Reduce flows 10/0 Scenario 3 - Restore 10% of withdrawal flows Scenario 7 - Reduce flows /o 1 Scenario 4 - Restore 50% of withdrawal flows Scenario 8 - Increase flows 10% Scenario 5 - Restore riparian vegetation Scenario 9 - Combination of 5 and 8 Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 157 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Figure 1 U2. Chimacum Creek Model Scenarios - Resulting Temperature Changes (t ■ July ■ August a September JCCD-CH/9.0 - Scenario6 ; JCCD-CH/7.0 - Scenario6 JCCD-CH/6.7 - Scenario6 JCCD CH /6.5 - Scenario6 JCCD-CH/6.1 - Scenario6 JCCD-CH/5.3 - Scenario6 JCCD-CH/3.9 - Scenario6 JCCD_CH /1.1 - Scenario6 JCCD CH /0.1 - Scenario6 JCCD-CH/9.0 - Scenario7 JCCD CH/7.0 - Scenario7 _ I I I I I I I I JCCD-CH/6.7 - Scenario7 JCCD CH /6.5 - Scenario7 JCCD CH/6.1 -Scenario7 JCCD-CH/5.3 - Scenario7 1 I I I I I I JCCD CH/3.9 - Scenario7 - I I I I I I I JCCD-CH/1.1 - Scenario7 JCCD-CH/0.1 - Scenario7 JCCD CH /9.0 - Scenario8 JCCD CH17.0 - Scenario8 JCCD-CH/6.7 - Scenario8 I I I I I I I I JCCD-CH/6.5 - Scenario8 JCCD-CH/6.1 - Scenario8 JCCD-CH/5.3 - Scenario8 JCCD CH/3.9 - Scenario8 JCCD-CH/1.1 - Scenario8 I I I I I I I I JCCD_CH /0.1 - Scenario8 JCCD-CH/9.0 - Scenario9 JCCD_CH17.0 - Scenari09 JCCD_CH/6.7 - Scenario9 JCCD CH/6.5 - Scenario9 JCCD_CH /6.1 - Scenario9 JCCD-CH/5.3 - Scenario9 JCCD CH/3.9-Scenario9 JCCD-CH/1.1 - Scenario9 JCCD CH /0.1 - Scenario9 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 Resulting Change in 7 -Day Maximum Moving Average of Daily Maximums (*C) Scenario 1- Development Trend Scenario 6 - Reduce flows 10% Scenario 2 - Modified Development Trend Scenario 3 - Restore 10% of withdrawal flows Scenario 7 - Reduce flows 30% Scenario 4 - Restore 50% of withdrawal flows Scenario 8 - Increase flows 10% Scenario 5 - Restore riparian vegetation Scenario 9 - Combination of 5 and 8 Prepared by Watershed Sciences � �� �� Page 158 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Figure 103a. Chimacum Model Scenarios - 7-Day Max Moving Ave of the Daily Max JCCD CH6.5 RKM 1Z05 T 19 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I Model Scenarios - A18 1 Measured o -- -- 1-- - - -� -- -- 1-- f-- +-- * - -� -- ------- -I - -�- Simulated I I I I I I I I I I I ci 16 Scenado1 -- 14 --'-- -- - - - -! - ---- - - -' -- - ' - - -' -- '- Scenado2 o E I Z' 'j� 13 l0 -- - - - -- -- - - = - -' -- - -I - -- Scenado3 E 12---- -------- ,-- -I - - -- i -- T ------- - - - -,- - -, - -j E A Scenano4 10 I I I _- T- _r__r_- r__I___I___1__,_ ----- -- Scenado5 I I 1 1 1 1 A -- Scenado6 8 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I p� N N ti v N ` N M N N Scenario? n n C JCCD CH5.3 RKM 10.30 20" Scenado8 20 -- r---- r---- r--° r— I--°-- r— r-- r-- -- r--- r--- -r- ---- r- -- r- -�--'� Scenado9 _T ,s 1 I I -- -- - - -1 -- - -�- - -- t-- Y - -I -- ---- 1 - - -I -- - I I I I I I I I I I I I I I a 16 -- -- - - -I -- -- -+ - -- -- ---- I-- - - -� -� I I Thermal Limits 16 p.. > L I I I 160C T - 14 I - - 1 - - -1- Rearing, Migration & -- -I -- -- -- - -- -- - - -' -- - -1 - 1 1 1 awnm Spawning 0 s 2 .- 13 ----- - - - - -- ; -- ------ - - - - -, - ,z - - -- -- -- -- - -; - -; - -; - -; - - - -, --- - - -1 -- All Study Streams e I ; r , All Year -- r-- I--- I___ I__,-- ,-- T__T-- r-- r-- r-- I - - -I -- I -- 19 I I I 1 I I 13 °C � -- Y--_____- 1-- y__- 1_ _Y__t__Y__r__t.._- I___I___I__y_ I I I I 1 I E Summer Chum 8 LO R; M o�: N M N N Spawning & Incubation JCCD CH1.1 RKM 2.78 2004 zo September 15 to July l j 1 I I I ,s -- I--- 1--- I-- �-- �-- ,-- �-- T-- Y-- �-- Y-- I--- 1-- -I - -,- I I I I I I I I I I I I ro 17 16 -- - - - -1 -- -- - -- +- - ------ - - -� -� I I I I v I C 7 14 .O - - 1 -- 1 - - -1 -- 1 -- - -- -- -' -- - -I -- �- 2 9 13 I I I 7 12 1 1 I I I 10 I I I I r - - r - - --- I - - -I- �- I I I I 1 8 'n N N N M P N M e N N N 2004 Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 159 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Figure 104. Chimacum Model Scenarios — Longitudinal Profiles for Model Scenarios 24 «� 23 a 22 °o M 21 20 N 19 18 c 17 CL 16 C 15 0 14 J 13 Thermal Limits 16 °C Rearing, Migration & Spawning All Study Streams, All Year 1300 Summer Chum Spawning & Incubation September 15 to July 1 i f � i r 1 _ , r'- w to V CM N e C CA Co r- CC LO qtmN —0 2004 Model Scenarios Measured — Simulated — Scenariol — Scenario2 — Scenario3 Scenario4 - -- Scenario5 --- Scenaro6 — Scenado7 — Scenario8 — Scenario9 Scenario 1— Development Trend Scenario 6 — Reduce flows 10% Scenario 2 — Modified Development Trend Scenario 3 — Restore 10% of withdrawal flows Scenario 7 — Reduce flows 30% Scenario 4 — Restore 50% of withdrawal flows Scenario 8 — Increase flows 10% Scenario 5 — Restore riparian vegetation Scenario 9 — Combination of 5 and 8 Prepared by Watershed Sciences ��n� Page 160 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA 5.4.5 East Chimacum Creek Table 27. East Chimacum Creek - Maximum Temperatures per Model Run STATION ID SITE NAME Model Run Tem erature °C Absolute Max 7 -Da y Ave. Max July Aug Sept JCCD_ECH/3.3 East Chimacum, RM 3.3 Measured 16.1 15.7 15.2 13.9 Simulated 16.5 15.4 15.3 14.6 Scenario5 15.9 14.9 14.9 14.2 Scenario6 16.6 15.5 15.5 14.7 Scenario? 17.1 15.9 15.9 14.9 Scenario8 16.4 15.2 15.2 14.5 Scenario9 15.8 14.9 14.8 14.1 JCCD_ECH/2.8 East Chimacum, RM 2.8 Measured 16.6 16.0 15.4 14.0 Simulated 16.9 15.9 16.0 15.5 Scenario5 16.0 15.0 15.0 14.7 Scenario6 17.0 16.0 16.1 15.6 Scenario? 17.5 16.4 16.5 15.9 Scenario8 16.8 15.8 15.9 15.4 Scenario9 15.9 14.9 14.9 14.6 JCCD_ECH/1.2 East Chimacum, RM 1.2 Measured 18.8 18.2 17.1 15.7 Simulated 17.8 17.2 17.4 16.6 Scenario5 16.1 15.2 15.2 15.0 Scenario6 18.0 17.4 17.5 16.8 Scenario? 18.4 17.7 17.9 17.1 Scenario8 17.7 17.1 17.2 16.5 Scenario9 16.1 15.1 15.1 15.0 JCCD_ECH/1.1 East Chimacum, RM 1.1 Measured 18.2 17.8 16.9 15.6 Simulated 18.0 17.2 17.2 16.6 Scenario5 16.2 15.4 15.3 15.0 Scenario6 18.2 17.3 17.4 16.7 Scenario? 18.7 17.7 17.7 17.0 Scenario8 17.8 17.0 17.0 16.5 Scenario9 16.1 15.3 15.2 1 15.0 JCCD_ECH/0.1 East Chimacum, RM 0.1 Measured 20.2 19.4 18.6 16.4 Simulated 18.8 17.7 17.7 17.3 Scenario5 16.5 15.2 15.2 15.2 Scenario6 18.9 17.8 17.8 17.4 Scenario? 19.2 17.9 18.0 17.6 Scenario8 18.7 17.7 17.7 17.2 Scenario9 16.4 15.2 15.1 15.1 Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 161 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Table 28. East Chimacum Creek - Temperature Changes per Model Run Site - Scenario Simulated Temperature Change C Absolute Max 7 Day Ave. Max July August Septembe r JCCD ECH/3.3 - Scenario5 -0.6 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 JCCD ECH/2.8 - Scenario5 -0.9 -0.9 -1.0 -0.8 JCCD ECH/1.2 - Scenario5 -1.7 -2.1 -2.2 -1.6 JCCD ECH /1.1 - Scenario5 -1.8 -1.8 -1.9 -1.6 JCCD ECH/0.1 - Scenario5 -2.3 -2.5 -2.5 -2.1 JCCD ECH/3.3 - Scenario6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 JCCD ECH/2.8 - Scenario6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 JCCD ECH/1.2 - Scenario6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 JCCD ECH /1.1 - Scenario6 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 JCCD ECH/0.1 - Scenario6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 JCCD ECH/3.3 - Scenario7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 JCCD ECH /2.8 - Scenario7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 JCCD ECH/1.2 - Scenario7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 JCCD ECH/1.1 - Scenario7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 JCCD ECH/0.1 - Scenario7 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 JCCD ECH/3.3 - Scenario8 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 JCCD ECH/1.2 - Scenario8 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 JCCD ECH/2.8 - Scenario8 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 JCCD ECH /1.1 - Scenario8 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 JCCD ECH/0.1 - Scenario8 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 JCCD ECH/3.3 - Scenario9 -0.7 -0.5 -0.6 -0.5 JCCD ECH/2.8 - Scenario9 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -0.9 JCCD ECH/1.2 - Scenario9 -1.7 -2.2 -2.3 -1.6 JCCD ECH/1.1 - Scenario9 -1.9 -1.9 -2.0 -1.6 JCCD ECH/0.1 - Scenario9 -2.4 -2.5 -2.6 -2.2 Scenario 1- Development Trend Scenario 6 -Reduce flows 10% Scenario 2 - Modified Development Trend Scenario 3 - Restore 10% of withdrawal flows Scenario 7 - Reduce flows 30% Scenario 4 - Restore 50% of withdrawal flows Scenario 8 - Increase flows 10% Scenario 5 - Restore riparian vegetation Scenario 9 - Combination of 5 and 8 Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 162 . L Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Figure 105. East Chimacum Creek Model Scenarios — Resulting Temperature Changes JCCD ECH /3.3 - Scenario5 JCCD ECH /2.8 - Scenario5 JCCD_ECH /1.2 - Scenario5 JCCD ECH /1.1 - Scenario5 JCCD ECH /0.1 - Scenario5 JCCD_ECH/3.3 - Scenario6 JCCD ECH /2.8 - Scenario6 JCCD ECH /1.2 - Scenario6 JCCD_ECH /1.1 - Scenario6 JCCD ECH /0.1 - Scenario6 JCCD ECH /3.3 - Scenario7 JCCD ECH /2.8 - Scenario7 JCCD_ECH /1.2 - Scenario7 JCCD ECH /1.1 - Scenario7 JCCD ECH /0.1 - Scenario7 JCCD ECH /3.3 - Scenario8 JCCD ECH /1.2 - Scenario8 JCCD ECH /2.8 - Scenario8 JCCD ECH /1.1 - Scenario8 JCCD ECH /0.1 - Scenario8 JCCD ECH/3.3 - Scenario9 JCCD ECH /2.8 - Scenario9 JCCD ECH /1.2 - Scenario9 JCCD ECH /1.1 - Scenario9 JCCD ECH /0.1 - Scenario9 -3 ■ July ■ August a September 3 -2 -1 0 1 2 Resulting Change in 7 -Day Maximum Moving Average of Daily Maximums ( *C) Scenario 1— Development Trend o Scenario 2 — Modified Development Trend Scenario —Reduce flows 1000 Scenario 3 — Restore 10% of withdrawal flows Scenario 7 7 — Reduce flows /o 1 0% Scenario 4 — Restore 50% of withdrawal flows Scenario 8 — Increase flows 1 Scenario 5 — Restore riparian vegetation Scenario 9 — Combination of 5 and 8 Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 163 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Figure 106. East Chimacum Model Scenarios — 7 -Day Max Moving Ave of the Daily Max (a) Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 164 20 T 19 I I I I I I -- -- -- -- -- -- -I - -�- Model Scenarios a r r r r r r-- r- ,�CCIy EC;H3.� Ri�M 568 I I I I I I I I u 18 -- r-- r-- I--- r- �-- �-- T-- r-- r-- r-- r-- r-- r - -r -�- Measured I I I I I 17 --r--r-----------r--r--r--r--r--r--r--r--I- Simulated 18 15 - - -- ------ - - -- -- Scenariol CE •s o 14 -- -- r- -r - -I- - -� - --r - r- -r-- I - --I- Scenario2 13 12 I I I I I I - -, - -i ----- -I - - -- -- -- - -r -- - - - - -I- Scenano3 a ,-- i r r 11 - -r -- -- r-- t - -� -- - - r-- r-- r - -r - -i - -, -I - -- -- Scenario4 a 10 ------------------------------------------ I I I I I I I I � I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 I - Scenario5 9 --,---,------,---,--,--;--r--------,---,---,------I- 8 --- cenario6 m r o n r> o n v v ao za Fa n as as Scenario? 2004 20 r-- -- --,-- -r-- -r - r- -r- r-- r- -,-- -, -- r- , - Scenario8 - _I J(riCD ECH2.8 RKA4 4.00 Scenaro9 a 1s -- I--- I--- I-- �-- �-- �-- +-- +-- ---- �-- �-- I--- I--- I - --I- I I I I spy 17-- 16 -- I--- I--- I-- �-- �-- �-- �-- +-- �-- �-- I--- I--- I--- I - --I- I I I I I Thermal Limits ` > U 16 0C c E t I I I C E 14 I I I I I I I I I I Rearing, Migration 8 13 - -- - --- - - - - ----- - - - -- ---- - - - - -- I Spawning _' 12 All Study Streams r= 11 -- ---- - - -; -- -- ;-- T__T - -r -- - -� - -I - I -- All Year I I I I I 9 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I --r--------I--ti--rt--Y--t--r--r--r-----------1- 8 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I C r D N M m NO 'w 2004 20 -r —� - -r-- r— 19 I I I I I I I -- -- r-- r-- r-- r-- i - - -i -- - -7- '.Z- yg. f�'RNI;T. %3', i 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I t W 17 18 - -I-- - - --I- "{- - +-- �' - -F -- -- I--- I--- I - -'�- I I I I I I I I I I I v 15 __L__I __ _ J _ _ _L__L__ _ I___I__J__J_ C 'p 14 __I_ I-- - I E •p( 13 - - - - I I I I I - - - , I----- - - -, - -� - -� - -� - - - -- -- i- 10 I 1 I I I £ 12 - -r - ---- -, - - -- i -- r - -T - -r - -r - -r -- - -, -- - -- I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 8 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I N N N N r N N N f+1 n e3 i3 I. 2004 Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 164 t Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Figure 107. East Chimacum Model Scenarios - 7 -Day Max Moving Ave of the Daily Max (b) Model Scenarios Measured Simulated Scenario1 Scenario2 Scenario3 Scenario4 Scenario5 - Scenario6 Scenario? Scenario8 Scenario9 Thermal Limits 16 °C Rearing, Migration & Spawning All Study Streams All Year 20 r 19 is 18 ° 17 m 16 a 15 E 14 13 12 e '� 11 a 10 9 8 20 a. 19 18 w ° 17 m 16 Qi15 N s ; 14 13 12 11 10 r 9 8 ,/I:CD €6kia-0RI CAS- ��S---- t-- r-- r-- r---- - - - - -- - I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I -- �-- 1--- I--- I - -'�- .' •. - +-- } - -� -- --1---1---1---1 - 1 1 I - j----- ,---- ,----- -- -I- - - -I -` I I I I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I I 1 I I I I j I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I N N N N M N M C N N LO 2004 €6084-f'FK I 1 I I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 I 1 I I I I I I 1 I I I - - - -- - - - -- - - - - -- I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 2004 Scenario 1— Development Trend o Scenario 2 — Modified Development Trend Scenario 6 —Reduce flows 10% Scenario 3 — Restore 10% of withdrawal flows Scenario 7 — Reduce flows 1 /o Scenario 4 — Restore 50% of withdrawal flows Scenario 8 — Increase flows 10% Scenario 5 — Restore riparian vegetation Scenario 9 — Combination of 5 and 8 Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 165 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA Figure 108. East Chimacum Model Scenarios — Longitudinal Profiles for Model Scenarios 21 v 20 CL 00 19 M t $ 18 O N N 17 16 W CL 15 Ta 14 c 13 O J 12 Thermal Limits 16 °C Rearing, Migration & Spawning All Study Streams. All Year I 1 I I I 1 I I I 1 I 1 I i 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I - ---+- - - - - I - ---- I----- F-------- -I - - -- - - - -"�- I I I I I I I I I I 1 I f I I I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I I 14: v v v Nt v, v 1 v v O CC t` CG LO CM N O 2004 Model Scenarios —Measured — Simulated — Scenariol — Scenario2 — Scenario3 — Scenario4 Scenarios -- Scenario6 — Scenario7 — ScenarioB — Scenario9 Scenario 1— Development Trend o Scenario 2 — Modified Development Trend Scenario 6 —Reduce flows 1000 Scenario 3 — Restore 10% of withdrawal flows Scenario 7 — Reduce flows 1 /o Scenario 4 — Restore 50% of withdrawal flows Scenario 8 — Increase flows 10% Scenario 5 — Restore riparian vegetation Scenario 9 — Combination of 5 and 8 Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 166 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA 6. Discussion What are the seasonal patterns and spatial distributions of stream temperatures? July was the warmest stream temperature period, with August also producing fairly warm stream temperatures. Some reaches of Chimacum Creek also experienced a warm period in June, a phenomenon that the models could not simulate. Stream temperature spatial distributions are fairly variable, but generally follow a classic heating pattern in the downstream direction. How do existing land and water uses affect stream temperatures spatially and temporally? Results demonstrate that land uses that reduce flows will typically warm the study streams in July, August and September. It follows that land and water uses that promote increases in instream fows have a moderating effect and reduce stream temperatures during this period. Increases in riparian vegetation had large cooling effects in all cases. What are the seasonal and spatial distributions of physical and thermal habitat? This report considers thermal habitat as follows: Salmon & Trout Thermal Needs Summer Chum Salmon Thermal Needs 16DC Rearing & Mgration 16oC Rearing & Mgrabon All Study Streams All Study Streams All Year July 1St to September 15th 13oC Spawning & Incubation All Study Streams, Excluding East Chimacum September 15th to July 15t Under these thermal limits, very few reaches of the study streams offer optimal thermal habitats to salmonids, for rearing, migration, spawning and egg incubation. Exceptions include the upper Big Quilcene River, upper Little Quilcene River, upper Tarboo Creek (above RM 4.0), upper Chimacum Creek (above RM 7.0) and East Chimacum Creek (above RM 5.4). The model simulation results per flow and riparian scenario indicate that combinations of flow increases and riparian vegetation enhancements will create a significant improvement in thermal habitat (see models scenarios for results). How does irrigation and flow management affect physical and thermal habitat? Flow management that reduces stream flow decreases physical habitat (by reducing the wetted extent of the channel) and decreases thermal habitat by allowing increased stream Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 167 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble S'Klallam Tribes Jefferson County, WA warming. Management that increases stream flows creates the opposite effects, increasing both physical and wetted habitat. Some scenarios create only a small temperature increase. Does that mean that it doesn't affect fisheries? It is important to consider why some flow decreases create only small temperature increases. In the case of the Big and Little Quilcene Rivers for scenario 2 (modified development trend), small flow reductions are not significant enough for the model to create a large temperature response. In short, these streams do not respond to very small flow decreases because they have large flows, relative to the modeled withdrawal rates (i.e., as a percentage of instream flow). In the case of Chimacum and East Chimacum Creek, along with Tarboo Creek, the extreme low flows and slow travel times over many miles allows for these streams to reach a thermal equilibrium with the surrounding environment. Therefore, decreases in flows offer little increased warming because they simply cannot warm anymore. The thermal environment governs maximum temperatures, and these streams are likely near or at these temperatures in their contemporary condition. In short, these streams do not warm much because they are already warm. In either case, does this mean that these flow reductions and small temperature responses are not likely to affect fisheries? Results in this report indicate that all of the study streams are in an artificially warmed contemporary condition during critical periods of the summer chum life history. Management that fails to promote improvements in physical and thermal habitats, will maintain these stressful contemporary conditions. An easy way to answer this question is to acknowledge that flow decreases already are adversely affecting fisheries, any additional increases in temperature exacerbate the problem, and failure to cool stream temperature maintains the problem. What are primary and secondary influences of land cover upon surface water thermal habitat, as simulated by the model? Riparian land cover provides shade as a function of vegetation height and density, as well as proximity to the stream. Solar radiation is the largest potential heat source to a stream, and therefore stream shading is important in reducing the rate of heating during the daytime. The primary influence of vegetation on thermal habitats is reducing the rate of heating of a stream, resulting in cooler daily maximum temperatures (Boyd, 19996, Boyd and Kasper, 2002, Beschta et al. 1987, Beschta and Weatherred,1984). Riparian vegetation also emits thermal radiation that can be received by the stream. This may serve to insulate the stream and provide warming, especially during nighttime. The result is that a stream often has less diurnal (daily) variation in temperatures. Increased riparian vegetation will buffer temperature, reducing daytime temperatures, and Prepared by Watershed Sciences Page 168 Quilcene and Chimacum Temperature Analysis Port Gamble SX/allam Tribes Jefferson County, WA potentially slightly increasing nighttime temperatures temperatures (Boyd, 19996, Boyd and Kasper, 2002, Beschta et al. 1987, Beschta and Weatherred,1984). Under what conditions can restoration efforts recreate pre- settlement physical and thermal habitats? It is extremely difficult to reproduce a theoretical and defensible understanding of historical conditions that is robust. In this effort, the investigators do not claim to have done so. Instead, the elements that are quantified and changed to match a condition closer to pre - settlement are flow and riparian vegetation. By minimizing water withdrawals from streams and promoting late -seral riparian vegetation, these elements will begin to trend toward a historical condition that promotes consistently cooler stream temperatures. Morphology and floodplain function are also an important elements that have undergone extensive modifications in the post - settlement period. Little effort has been made in this study to quantify the morphologic changes, including: wetland functions, floodplain connection/condition, channel condition and sediment regimes. These stream parameters are important, and a certainly understated in this study by their omission. 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