HomeMy WebLinkAbout072715_cabs02County Administrator Briefing
JEFFERSON COUNTY
BOARD OF COUNTY COMMISSIONERS
AGENDA REQUEST
TO: Board of County Commissioners
Frank Gifford, Acting County Administrator
Philip Morley, County Administrator
FROM: Carl Smith, Community Development Director �—
DATE: July 27, 2015
SUBJECT: Population projections for City and County comprehensive plans.
ATTACHMENTS: A: Draft population estimates for updating the County and City comp
plans with a proposed planning period of 2018 -2038.
B. Actual growth rate information for past years.
C: Resolution No. 55 -03 adopting population projections for the period
2000 -2024
STATEMENT OF ISSUE:
The County and City of Port Townsend are each in the process of updating their GMA
comprehensive plans. This work requires coordination and agreement between the City and
County on certain items, especially future population projections, through the Joint Growth
Management Steering Committee ( JGMSC). Prior to convening a meeting of the JGMSC, staff
wants the opportunity to discuss relevant issues with the Board of County Commissioners. Staff
of both the City and County recommend convening the JGMSC as soon as possible to begin
this coordination.
ANALYSIS:
While the JGMSC could discuss and potentially amend any of the County Wide Planning
Policies, (CWPP's) as part of the comp plan update, the most pressing need is for the two
jurisdictions to agree on the 20 year future population projections and the "allocation"
(percentage split) of the future population growth between urban and rural areas within the
County. The population projections are essential to updating the comp plans because they
have a ripple effect through numerous facets of the plan, affecting planning for most other
elements, including rural and urban land capacity, transportation, capital facilities, utilities, and
essential public facilities.
Future Growth Period and Population Proiections
County and City staff have coordinated on future population projections. Previously, staff had
attempted to have the same year for adopting their comp plans (2016) and therefore, proposed
to have the same 20 year growth period of 2016 -2036. The City of Port Townsend intends to
adopt their updated comp plan by June, 2016, and County staff had previously considered
presenting the County comp plan for Board adoption by December 2016.
County Administrator Briefing
However, DCD recommends taking advantage of the full 2 -year extension for which the County
is eligible. This extension would mean a new 20 year growth period of 2018 -2038. Using the
official growth estimates from the State Office of Financial Management (OFM), this extension
results in an additional County -wide population increase of 285 more than the City's estimate for
2016 -2036. (Attachment A). Due to this increase in population for the County's planning period,
the population projections need to revised slightly, as shown in Exhibit A, Table 3A. Taking
advantage of the extension will allow additional time to address major issues, especially the
need to update the critical areas ordinance as they apply to agricultural lands. The extension will
also soften the impact to DCD staff, helping them manage the comp plan work with their existing
workloads.
Population Growth "Allocation"
Allocation means the percentage of future growth that is estimated to occur among the urban
areas and rural areas of the County. In 2003, Resolution 55 -03 (Attachment C) was adopted
that set allocations for these areas as follows: City of Port Townsend (36 %), total urban and
future urban areas (70 %) and the rural areas of the County (30 %). In discussions between
staff from the City and County, City staff recommend maintaining the same allocations for the
City, total future urban areas (34 %) and the total rural areas (30 %). For context, the City's
actual growth percentage since 1995 has ranged between 20 -23 percent of the County total
(Attachment B). Whether or not to pursue revision to the allocations is one question before the
JGMSC. County staff's perspective is that the existing allocation of 36% for the City is still
appropriate for the following reasons: (1) under the GMA, urban areas with urban services are
the logical place for directing growth; if the County were to assume a higher allocation, it has an
obligation to ensure necessary capital facilities as well as other governmental services are
planned for and funded; (2) the 20 year planning period is a substantial time period in which to
expect high accuracy in forecasting either the future population number or where it may occur.
Amendments to the County Wide Planning Policies
In addition to the population and allocation topics, there are several other potential amendments
to the County Wide Planning Policies (CWPP's) that could be addressed by the JGMSC; some
that are holdovers from prior JGMSC work and there are certain amendments proposed by staff
for potential action in the current process. These are proposed to be the subject of a future staff
briefing to the Board. The existing CWPP's can be viewed at
http: / /www co iefferson wa us/commdevelopment/PDFS/County-
wide %20PIann ina %20Policv. pdf
RECOMMENDATION:
Receive a briefing on this topic and provide any comments and direction, and indicate if the Board is
ready to schedule a meeting of the JGMSC.
REVIEWED BY:
4* 14:� //1*1 71ZJA
Frank Giffolf Adling County Administrator Date
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Population Distribution Between City of Port Townsend and Unincorporated Jefferson County
1995-2014
Source: OFM: 2014
G:IPLANNINGICompPlan and Updates MASTER FOLDEW2016 GMA Periodic UpdatelPopulation \City - County Pop split 6-15 -
15.docx
STATE OF WASHINGTON
COUNTY OF JEFFERSON
ADOPTING AN UPDATE TO THE )
COUNTYWIDE GROWTH MANAGEMENT )
PLANNING POPULATION PROJECTION, )
EXTENDING THE POPULATION PROJECTION )
TO ADDRESS THE PERIOD 2000 -2024, AND )
ALLOCATING A PORTION OF THE PROJECTED )
URBAN COMPONENT OF GROWTH TO PORT )
TOWNSEND, TRI -AREA AND PORT LUDLOW )
Section 1. Be It Resolved
A. FINDINGS:
RESOLUTION NO. 55 -03
On December 21, 1992 the Jefferson County Board of Commissioners (BoCC) and the
City of Port Townsend, Jefferson County's only incorporated city, adopted the
Countywide Planning Policies (CPPs), as required by Section .210 of the Growth
Management Act (GMA).
2. The Joint Growth Management Steering Committee (JGMSC) was established pursuant
to the GMA, RCW 36.70A.210, as the collaborative process required by that statute to
provide a framework for adoption of a county -wide planning policy.
3. The Jefferson County BoCCC adopted the Jefferson County Comprehensive Plan (the
Plan) in 1998. The Plan reflected the JGMSC s recommended 1996 -2016 forecast and the
disaggregation of the forecast population between urban and rural areas, and it included
specific allocations to the various urban areas within the county. The Plan adopted a
population forecast of 39,936 for the year 2016.
4. CPP Policy 1.1 requires that the county work with Port Townsend to establish updated
population forecasts and allocations.
5. Between February and April of 2003, consistent with direction contained in the CPP,
county and city staff developed a proposed update to the countywide population forecast
to address the period 2000 to 2024 and prepared suggested urban population allocations
for Port Townsend, the Tri-Area, and Port Ludlow.
6. City of Port Townsend staff and the County worked cooperatively in recommending an
update to the countywide population forecast and allocation for the period 2000 to 2024.
This discussion culminated in an April 16, 2003 consultant prepared recommendation
entitled "Joint Population Forecast & Allocation - Update."
�f;
RESOLUTION NO. 55 -03
Page: 2
7. The consultant prepared recommendation was adopted by the Port Townsend City Council
as the city's position on updated population forecast and allocation through a unanimous
7 -0 vote at their April 14, 2003 meeting.
8. The BoCC voted to extend the adopted countywide population forecast to address the
period 2000 through 2024. The recommended forecast, which falls within the acceptable
Washington State Office of Finanacial Management range, concludes that the countywide
population will grow an additional 13,840 during the period 2000 to 2024, to a county-
wide population of 40,139. Table 1 summarizes the recommended update to the
Countywide population forecast.
9. See Table below
Summary Table 1: Updated Jefferson County Population Forecast — 2000 -2024
Year
Population
Growth
2000
26,299
N/A
2024
40,139
13,840
Total Forecasted Growth
2000 -2024
40,139
10. See Table below
Summary Table 2: 2024 Population Projection & Allocation Summary*
2000 Population
Anticipated
Projected 2024
percentage of
Coatpound
Growth
Population
Total County-
Annual Growth
(2000-2024)
wide Growth
Rate
2000.2024
Port Townsend
UGA
8,344
4,985
13,329
36%
1.97%
(Incorporated)
Tri -Ara UGA
2,553
2,353
4,906
17%
2.76%
nine rated
Port Ludlow
1,430
2,353
3,783
17%
4.14%
MPR
(Unincorporated
UGAlMPR Total
12,327
9,691
22,018
70%
2A5%
Unincorparated
Rural &
13,972
4,149
18,121
30%
1.09%
Resources Areas
County-wide
26,299
13,840
40,139
100%
1.78%
Total
-Sources: 2000 U.S. Census and 2002 Washington State OFM Population Forecasts
RESOLUTION NO. 55 -03 Page: 3
B. CONCLUSIONS:
1. The GMA requires cities and counties to determine by September 1, 2004 whether
sufficient suitable land (i.e., urban and rural) is available to accommodate the projected
population within OFM's new 20 -year forecast range (RCW 37.A.215).
2. Jurisdictions are not precluded from updating population forecasts and plans, including
UGA boundaries, in advance of the planning required by September 1, 2004 (RCW
3670A.130 and 36.70A.215).
The Jefferson County Comprehensive Plan directed the county to work cooperatively with
the City of Port Townsend to establish updated population forecasts and urban/rural
allocation.
4. The proposed allocations are reasonable and within the range of choices afforded to
jurisdictions under the GMA. They will allow ongoing and extensive planning efforts to
proceed pending adoption of a new 20 -year population target consistent with OFM's new
2000 -2024 range.
NOW, THEREFORE, the Jefferson County Board of Commissioners adopts the following:
1: Adoption of Updated Countywide Population Forecast. Based on the concurrence of the
City of Port Townsend, the recommended countywide population forecast of 40,139 for the
period 2000 -2024 and the urban/rural allocation detailed in Summary Table 2 above, are adopted
as the GMA planning population target for Jefferson County.
Appryved this day of September, 2003.
9 v r Q
Lorna Delaney, Clerk of the Board
JEFFERSON COUNTY
Dan Tittemess,
V-A1CXA
Ju Mackey, Member