HomeMy WebLinkAbout102615_ra01JEFFERSON COUNTY
BOARD OF COUNTY COMMISSIONERS
AGENDA REQUEST
TO: Board of County Commissioners
Philip Morley, County Administrator
FROM: David Goldsmith, Interim Community Development Director
DATE: October 26, 2015
SUBJECT: Resolution to adopt a Countywide Growth Management
Population Projection and Allocation for 2016 -2036 and 2018-
2038.
ATTACHMENTS: Resolution adopting population projection and allocation for
2016 -2036 and 2018 -2038
STATEMENT OF ISSUE:
The County and City of Port Townsend are each in the process of updating their GMA
comprehensive plans. This work requires coordination and agreement between the City and
County on certain items, especially future population projections and allocations, through the
Joint Growth Management Steering Committee ( JGMSC). The JGMSC has completed their
work and voted unanimously to recommend the population projection and allocation to the
Jefferson County Board of County Commissioners for formal adoption.
ANALYSIS:
The allocation formula for 20 year population projections are as follows: 70% urban and 30%
rural /resource lands, including the following: City of Port Townsend (36 %), Port
Hadlock/Irondale UGA (19.4 %), Port Ludlow Master Planned Resort (10.1 %), Brinnon Master
Planned Resort (4.5 %) and unincorporated Rural and Resource areas of the County (30 %).
The population allocation is a foundational element of the GMA Comprehensive Plan and will be
utilized in the update of the City's and the County's comprehensive plans.
Pass the proposed Resolution adopting the Countywide Growth Management Population Projection
and allocation for 2016 -2036 and 2018 -2038 as recommended by the JGMSC.
REVIEWED BY:
Philip Morley, unty dministrat r
Date
JEFFERSON COUNTY
STATE OF WASHINGTON
ADOPTING A COUNTYWIDE }
GROWTH MANAGEMENT PLANNING } Resolution No. i -15
POPULATION PROJECTION FOR }
THE PERIODS 2016 -2036 AND 2018 -2038, }
AND ALLOCATING PROJECTED URBAN }
GROWTH TO URBAN GROWTH AREAS }
AND MASTER PLANNED RESORTS }
WHEREAS, the Joint Growth Management Steering Committee ( JGMSC) was
established in 1991 pursuant to the Growth Management Act (GMA), Section 36.70A.210, as the
collaborative County and City process required by that statute to provide a framework for
adoption of a county -wide planning policy; and
WHEREAS, in 1992 the Jefferson County Board of Commissioners (BoCC) and the City
of Port Townsend, Jefferson County's only incorporated city, jointly adopted the Countywide
Planning Policies (CPPs), as required by Section 36.70A.210 of the GMA; and subsequently
amended the CPPs in 1994 to adopt the state definition of affordable housing; and
WHEREAS, CPP Policy 1.1 requires that the County work with Port Townsend to
establish updated population forecasts and allocations; and
WHEREAS, in 2003, county and city staff developed a joint methodology to update the
countywide population forecast and urban population allocations consistent with the CPPs to
address the period 2000 to 2024; and the JGMSC recommended and the County subsequently
adopted by Resolution No. 055 -03 the joint population projection and allocation including:
• Adoption of OFM's medium population projection: 2024 population: 40,139; and
allocation of the projected population growth as follows;
• 70% of growth to urban areas (UGAs & MPRs), including 36% to the Port
Townsend UGA, with the remaining urban population growth distributed between the
Tri -Area (Port Hadlock) UGA and the Port Ludlow Master Planned Resort; and
• 30% of growth to rural/resource lands; and
WHEREAS, pursuant to RCW 36.70A.130(5)(b) and RCW 36.70A.130(6)(e), Jefferson
County and the City of Port Townsend will update their Comprehensive Plans to address the plan
period 2016 -2036 (City of Port Townsend), and 2018 -2038 (Jefferson County); and
WHEREAS, in 2014 and 2015 City and County planning staff worked cooperatively to
develop a recommended update to the countywide population forecast and allocation for each
jurisdiction's new Comprehensive Plan period; and
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WHEREAS, on January 20, 2015, the Port Townsend City Council unanimously voted to
endorse the OFM medium series projection and allocate 70% of growth to urban areas (UGAs
& MPRs), including 36% to the Port Townsend UGA and directing the Joint Growth
Management Steering Committee representatives and DSD staff to present the city's position to
the Board of County Commissioners; and
WHEREAS, on October 16, 2015, the Joint Growth Management Committee met as a
body and received County and City staff's joint recommendation on population projections and
allocations for the new Comprehensive Plan periods, and the underlying methodology; and
WHEREAS, the proposed allocations are reasonable and within the range of choices
afforded to jurisdictions under the GMA and will allow for ongoing and extensive planning
efforts to proceed with respect to the 20 year planning periods listed above; and
WHEREAS, at its October 16, 2015 meeting, the JGMSC unanimously voted tc
recommend to the Jefferson County Board of Commissioners that the County adopt the
recommended population forecast and allocation for the Comprehensive Plan periods;
NOW, THEREFORE, be it resolved by the Board of County Commissioners for Jefferson County,
Washington, in regular session assembled, does hereby resolve as follows:
Adoption of Countywide Growth Management Population Projection. Based on the
concurrence of the City of Port Townsend and the recommendation the Joint Growth
Management Steering Committee, the medium countywide population forecast by the
Washington State Office of Financial Management (OFM) as displayed in bold in TABLE
below is hereby adopted for the respective comprehensive planning periods 2016 -2036 and
2018 -2038:
TABLE 1: OFM Population Projection
Year
Population
(Low)
Population
(Medium)
Population
(High)
2036
27,426
38,349
49,638
2038
27,427
39,221
51,201
2. Adoption of Countywide Population Growth Allocation. Based on the concurrence of the
City of Port Townsend and the recommendation the Joint Growth Management Steering
Committee, the following population growth allocations as displayed in TABLE 2A and
TABLE 2B below are hereby adopted for the respective comprehensive planning periods
2016 -2036 and 2018 -2038:
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TABLE 2A. Jefferson County and City of Port Townsend 20 -Year Population Projection
and Allocation (2016 -2036)
TABLE 3B. Jefferson County and City of Port Townsend 20 -year Population
Projection and Allocation (2018 -2038)
2010
Allocation
Projected
Estimated
Projected
(2010 -2036)
Population
of Total
Growth
Growth
Population
Projected
County-
(2010-
(2016-
2036
Compound
wide
2036)
2036)
Annual
Growth
Growth Rate
Port Townsend
9,113
36%
3,052
2,711
12,165
1.12%
UGA (Incorporated)
Port Hadlock/
3,580
19.4%
1,645
1,461
5,225
1.47%
Irondale UGA
(Unincorporated)
Port Ludlow MPR
2,603
10.1%
856
760
3,459
1.11%
(Unincorporated)
Brinnon MPR
--
4.5%
381
339
381
25.68%
(Unincorporated)
Subtotal of UGAs &
15,296
70%
5,934
5,271
21,230
1.27%
MPRs
Unincorporated
14,576
30%
2,543
2,260
17,119
0.62%
Rural & Resource
Areas
County -wide Total
29,872
100%
8,477
7,531
38,349
0.97%
TABLE 3B. Jefferson County and City of Port Townsend 20 -year Population
Projection and Allocation (2018 -2038)
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2010
Allocation
Projected
Estimated
Projected
(2010 -2038)
Population
of Total
Growth
Growth
Population
Projected
County-
(2010-
(2018-
2038
Compound
wide
2038)
2038)
Annual
Growth
Growth Rate
Port Townsend UGA
9,113
36%
3,366
2,814
12,479
1.13%
(Incorporated)
Port Hadlock/
3,580
19.4%
1,814
1,516
5,394
1.48%
Irondale UGA
(Unincorporated)
Port Ludlow MPR
2,603
10.1
944
789
3,547
1.11%
(Unincorporated)
Brinnon MPR
--
4.5%
421
352
421
26.16%
(Unincorporated)
Subtotal of UGAs &
15,296
70%
6,545
5,471
21,841
1.28%
MPRs
Unincorporated
14,576
30%
2,804
2,445
17,380
0.63%
Rural & Resource
Areas
County -wide Total
29,872
100%
9,349
7,816
39,221
0.98%
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3. Adoption of Allocation Methodology Summary. The Allocation Methodology Summary in
EXHIBIT A is attached hereto and incorporated herein as a summary of the methodology
used to develop the adopted population projections and growth allocation.
4. This Resolution supplants and replaces Jefferson County Commission Resolution 455 -03 and
renders that 2003 Resolution null and void.
Approved and signed this day of October, 2015.
Seal:
Attest:
JEFFERSON COUNTY
BOARD OF COMMISSIONERS
David W. Sullivan, Chairman
Phil Johnson, Member
Carolyn Avery Kathleen Kler, Member
Deputy Clerk of the Board
Approved as to Form Only:
David Alvarez
Deputy Prosecuting Attorney
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EXHIBIT A
Staff Recommended Population Projections
for Comp Plan Updates
- Allocation Methodology'
POPULATION PROJECTION: The county and city staff recommend adopting OFM's medium
series projection.
Table 1: OFM 2012 Projections
Year
Population
(Low)
Population
(Medium)
Population
(High)
2036
27,426
38,349
49,638
2038
27,427
39,221
51,201
Adoption of this projection would bring the county and city squarely into GMA compliance with
regard to population projections under sections 36.70A.130 and .110 RCW. OFM's low
projection for 2036 and 2038 shows a population that is less than what it already is in 2015.
OFM's high projection shows a growth pattern that is much greater than actual growth for the
past 15 years. For these reasons, the staff recommends adoption of OFM's medium series
projection extended to 2036 for the City and 2038 for the County unincorporated areas as the
growth management planning population to be used in updating the comprehensive plans of the
city and county.
ALLOCATION:
Using the OFM medium series projection for future GMA planning efforts, a reasonable urban
versus rural population distribution must be determined. Once this urban component of growth
is identified, specific allocations of urban population growth must be made to the county's urban
areas.
It should be understood that while selection of a countywide population projection falling within
the OFM forecast range is mandatory, the manner in which this population is allocated within a
county is entirely discretionary under the GMA, provided that all projected urban growth is
allocated to properly designated urban areas.
In 2003 (resolution 55 -03), the allocation methodology remained consistent with the JGMSC's
prior efforts, specifically:
• Used the original, "three UGA" Watterson West Forecast developed in December of
1994 as the basis for the urban /rural disaggregation, rather than the "two UGA" forecast
adopted by the JGMSC in March of 1996;
• Identified the percentage of countywide growth projection to occur within the Port
Townsend UGA, Tri -Area UGA and Port Ludlow MPR, respectively, under the original
Watterson West forecasF; and
1 8- 20 -15. Revised to include a County 20 -year planning period of 2018 -2038
2 Note: Consistent with the forecast and allocation adopted by the JGMSC in 1996, it was assumed that 90% of the projected
growth within the Oak Bay /Port Ludlow planning area (planning area #7) would occur within the Port Ludlow MPR; it was further
assumed that 90% of the growth forecast for the Tri -Area planning area (planning area #3) would occur within the Tri -Area UGA.
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• Allocated a proportionate share of the 2000 - 2024 projected countywide growth under
the OFM medium series projection to the Port Townsend and Tri -Area UGAs and the
Port Ludlow MPR.
Application of this approach resulted in a total of approximately 70% of the county's total 2000 -
2024 growth being allocated to urban areas, with the balance of growth being directed to
unincorporated rural and resource areas of the county. Some 36% of the projected countywide
growth would be planned for and accommodated within the Port Townsend UGA, while a
combined 34% would be accommodated within Tri -Area UGA and Port Ludlow MPR, shown
below.
Table 2. 2003 Jefferson County and City of Port Townsend
20 -Year Population Projection and Distribution
Similar to the 2003 methodology, the approach for the 2016 and 2038 updates is to
• Retain the urban to rural disaggregation of 70% of the county's total growth being
allocated to urban areas with the 30% balance being directed to unincorporated rural
areas.
• Allocate 36% of the projected countywide growth to the Port Townsend UGA
See Table 3A and Table 3B below.
s In 2004, the Tri -Area UGA became known as the Port Hadlock/Irondale UGA. Tri -Area is used here for
consistency.
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Anticipated
Percentage of
(2003) Projected
Growth
Total Countywide
Compound Annual
(2000 -2024)
Growth (Res. 55-
Growth Rate
03)
Port Townsend UGA
4,985
36%
1.97%
(Incorporated)
Tri -Area UGA'
2,353
17%
2.76%
(Unincorporated)
Port Ludlow MPR
2,353
17%
4.14%
(Unincorporated)
UGA /MPR Total
9,691
70%
2.45%
Unincorporated
4,149
30%
1.09%
Rural &
Resource Areas
Countywide Total
13,840
100%
1.78%
Similar to the 2003 methodology, the approach for the 2016 and 2038 updates is to
• Retain the urban to rural disaggregation of 70% of the county's total growth being
allocated to urban areas with the 30% balance being directed to unincorporated rural
areas.
• Allocate 36% of the projected countywide growth to the Port Townsend UGA
See Table 3A and Table 3B below.
s In 2004, the Tri -Area UGA became known as the Port Hadlock/Irondale UGA. Tri -Area is used here for
consistency.
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Table 3A. 2015 Jefferson County and City of Port Townsend 20 -Year Population
Projection and Distribution (2016 -2036)
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
2010
Allocation
Projected
Estimated
Projected
(2010 -
Population
of Total
Growth
Growth
Population
2036)
4
County-
(2010-
(2016-
2036'
Projected
wide
2036)5
2036)6
Compound
Growth
Annual
Growth
Rate$
Port Townsend
9,113
36%
3,052
2,711
12,165
1.12%
UGA (Incorporated)
Tri -Area UGA'
3,580
19.4%
1,645
1,461
5,225
1.47%
(Unincorporated)
Port Ludlow MPR
2,603
10.1%
856
760
3,459
1.11%
(Unincorporated)
Brinnon MPR
--
4.5%
381
339
381
25.68%
(Unincorporated)
- --
UGA /MPR Total
15,296
70%
5,934
5,271
21,230
1.27%
Unincorporated
14,576
30%
2,543
2,260
17,119
0.62%
Rural &
Resource Areas
County -wide Total
29,87210
100%
8,477
7,531
38,349"
0.97%
4 Source: Estimated using tract and block data, 2010 U.S. Census
5 Formula: 2036 total county population less 2010 total county population allocated as per percentages in
Column C.
6 Formula: 2036 total county population less OFM's 2016 Projection for total county population; allocated
as per percentages in Column C.
' Formula: B + D
8 CAGR = (Ending Value /Beginning Value) ^(1 / # of Years) - 1
9 In 2004, the Tri -Area UGA became known as the Port Hadlock /Irondale UGA. Tri -Area is used here for
consistency.
10 Source: 2010 U.S. Census
11 Source: Washington Office of Financial Management, 2013
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Table 3B. 2015 Jefferson County and City of Port Townsend 20 -year Population
Projection and Distribution (2018 -2038)
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
2010
Allocation
Projected
Estimated
Projected
(2010 -2038)
Population
of Total
Growth
Growth
Population
Projected
12
County-
(2010-
(2018-
2038
Compound
wide
2038)
2038)13
Annual
Growth
Growth Rate
Port Townsend UGA
9,113
36%
3,366
2,814
12,479
1.13%
(Incorporated)
Tri -Area UGA 14
3,580
19.4%
1,814
1,516
5,394
1.48%
(Unincorporated)
Port Ludlow MPR
2,603
10.1
944
789
3,547
1.11%
(Unincorporated)
Brinnon MPR
--
4.5%
421
352
421
26.16%
(Unincorporated)
UGA /MPR Total
15,296
70%
6,545
5,471
21,841
1.28%
Unincorporated
14,576
30%
2,804
2,445
17,380
0.63%
Rural &
Resource Areas
County -wide Total
29,87215
100%
9,349
7,816
39,221
0.98%
Consistent with prior methodology, 36% of the projected county -wide growth would be
planned for and accommodated within the Port Townsend UGA. The adjusted urban
allocations within the County reflect:
Port Townsend UGA — In regards to residential land, the city has a theoretical
carrying capacity of over 30,000 people and thus, is adequately sized to
accommodate anticipated future urban growth (12,165 by 2036). Assuming a
population increase of 2,711 at 1.98persons /household, approximately 1,369
additional units will be needed by the end of the City's 20 year planning
period at 2036
Tri -Area - The percentage allocated to Tri -Area (Port Hadlock/Irondale) UGA
is expected to increase once sewer service is available. The project has
building permits issued for the first phase of the system, and the County is
seeking the funding to construct the system. Anticipated growth will not likely
be a straight -line increase. Rather it is expected that once the system is
constructed, population will increase rapidly. The population projections for
this area assume development at urban densities with sewer service
available. Assuming 2.0 persons per household, to accommodate the
projected population increase of 1,516, approximately 758 additional units
12 Source: Estimated using tract and block data, 2010 U.S. Census
13 Source: Estimated based on OFM's 2018 Projection for Jefferson County (31,405) and percentages in
Column C.
14 In 2004, the Tri -Area UGA became known as the Port Hadlock /Irondale UGA. Tri -Area is used here for
consistency.
15 Source: 2010 U.S. Census
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will be required by the end of the County's 20 year planning period at 2038
(1,516/2 = 758 DU's).
Port Ludlow Master Planned Resort was an existing MPR at the time of GMA
adoption. According to U.S. Census data, the 2010 population of Port Ludlow
was 2,603, with an estimated population per residence of 1.9 persons. The
development agreement adopted in 2000 provides for a cap of 2,250
residential "Measurement Equivalent Residential Units" (MERU's). MERU is
the measurement and transfer mechanism for capping total development
within the MPR. One residential MERU equates to one residential unit and
equals 200 gallons per day of sewer waste water flow. In 2015, 1,544
residential dwelling units (DU's) had been constructed, leaving 706 DU's
remaining. Maximum buildout of Port Ludlow with a range of 1.4 -1.9 people
per residence equates to 3,375- 4,275. Assuming a 75% buildout at 1.49
persons per household results in an estimated population increase of 789,
meaning approximately 529 additional units will be needed by the end of the
County's 20 year planning period at 2038. Given slower than anticipated
growth, Jefferson County does not expect full buildout of Port Ludlow to occur
within the 20 -year planning period.
Brinnon future MPR land use designation was established in 2008. Approval
by the Board of County Commissioners of zoning regulations and a
development agreement is still required prior final establishment of the MPR
and project construction. The maximum number of residential units for the
MPR is capped at 890 units with a 35% maximum for permanent occupancy.
35% of 890 is 312units. Assuming a population increase of 352 during the 20
year planning period, at 1.5 persons per residence, approximately 235
additional units (or 75% buildout) will be needed by the end of the County's
20 year planning period at 2038. Note: the higher population values shown in
Column's D and F in Tables 3 and 3A are theoretical amounts assuming
growth occurred from 2010 to 2038.
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