HomeMy WebLinkAboutPopulation GrowthWho Are We? Planning Attributes of Jefferson County
Department of Community Development, July 6, 2016
POPULATION
The population of Jefferson County in 2015 = 30,880 (9,380 in Port Townsend, 21,500 in
unincorporated county).
Population change represents the balance of births, deaths (natural increase) and net migration
(entering and leaving the county).
From 2010-2015, Jefferson County population changed by +1,008 persons. The natural increase
was -728 persons and net migration was +1,736 persons. That shows that our population
increase isn’t supported by births, but by people moving here.
Since 2010, the county population grew by 1.2%
According to U.S. Census Bureau QuickFacts, the county’s residents in the 65 and older category
made up 33.3% of its population compared to 14.9% of the state’s population.
State demographers at the Office of Financial Management (OFM) develop population growth
scenarios in three numerical forecasts: low, medium, and high. Jefferson County and Port
Townsend selected the Medium Population Forecast.
PLANNING HORIZON
The State Growth Management Act (GMA) requires jurisdictions to project plans into the future 20-
years. Since Jefferson County received a GMA planning extension from 2016 to 2018, our 2016-2036
planning period will extend to 2038, and we have adopted numbers to 2038.
Population Projection (OFM)
Year Population
(Low)
Population
(Medium)
Population
(High)
2036 27,426 38,349 49,638
2038 27,427 39,221 51,201
ALLOCATION OF POPULATION
Using the OFM Medium Series projection for future GMA planning efforts, a reasonable urban versus
rural population distribution must be determined. Once this urban component of growth is identified,
specific allocations of urban population growth must be made to the county’s urban areas.
City and county plans retain the urban-to-rural disaggregation of 70% of the county’s total
growth being allocated to urban areas, with the 30% balance being directed to unincorporated
rural areas.
36% of the projected countywide growth is allocated to the Port Townsend Urban Growth Area
(UGA).
The allocation between geographic planning areas assists with planning of zoning, housing,
roads, facilities, and other long-term issues.
(over)
Who Are We? Planning Attributes of Jefferson County
Department of Community Development, July 6, 2016
Jefferson County and City of Port Townsend 20-year Population
Projection and Allocation (2018-2038)
2010
Population
Allocation
of Total
County-
wide
Growth
Projected
Growth
(2010-
2038)
Estimated
Growth
(2018-
2038)
Projected
Population
2038
(2010-2038)
Projected
Compound
Annual
Growth Rate
Port Townsend UGA
(Incorporated)
9,113 36% 3,366 2,814 12,479 1.13%
Port Hadlock/ Irondale
UGA
(Unincorporated)
3,580 19.4% 1,814 1,516 5,394 1.48%
Port Ludlow MPR
(Unincorporated)
2,603 10.1 944 789 3,547 1.11%
Brinnon MPR
(Unincorporated)
-- 4.5% 421 352 421 26.16 %
Subtotal of UGAs &
MPRs
15,296 70% 6,545 5,471 21,841 1.28%
Unincorporated
Rural & Resource Areas
14,576 30% 2,804 2,445 17,380 0.63%
County-wide Total 29,872 100% 9,349 7,816 39,221 0.98%
From Jefferson County Resolution Number 38-15
HOUSING (Census QuickFacts)
The number of persons per household varies within the county. The average persons per
household is 2.15). This helps planners calculate the number of additional housing units needed
to accommodate an estimated population.
Housing units increased by 254 from 17,767 units in 2010 to 18,021 units in 2015.
The owner-occupied housing unit rate, 2010-2014 for Jefferson County is 74.7%
INCOME AND POVERTY (Census QuickFacts)
Jefferson County’s median household income in 2010-2014 (2014 dollars) = $47,202
Persons in poverty in Jefferson County = 14.1%
The unemployment rate has dropped from the double-digits since the great recession and is
currently at 6.4% (November 2015).
Percent of county residents served by public assistance programs in FY 2015 = 13.4% (OFM
County Profile).
Preliminary November 2015 figure for civilian work force in Jefferson County was 11,054.