HomeMy WebLinkAbout02012021_Schumacher_PCR Testing.2From:Stephen Schumacher
Cc:Board of Health; Tom Locke; Allison Berry, Clallam County Health Officer
Subject:New hope for "negative cases" before Feb. 14
Date:Monday, February 1, 2021 12:43:13 PM
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Dear Jefferson County Commissioners,
Watching the Zoom of this morning's BoCC meeting, I noted that Dr.
Locke did not answer or even address any of my questions at bottom,
so they are all still on the table. I'm mystified by his
mischaracterization of well-documented concerns over 90% false
positive rates at high cycle counts as "nitpicky" and his
easily-refuted opinion that PCR tests are "highly accurate".
Philip Morley observed that Jefferson Healthcare handles only a small
percentage of our county's PCR testing, with most conducted by UW and
others. If so, that raises the additional question:
7) What Cycle Threshold is used by each organization performing PCR
testing in our county, and approximately what percentage of testing
is done by each organization?
Because of the critical importance of the cycle count in evaluating
the significance of a positive PCR test result, both pieces of
information need to be reported to individuals as well as in overall
county statistics.
Dr. Locke's report began by warning about a tripling of cases with 26
new ones last week if I heard correctly. But what are the cycle
counts of these new cases? It makes a huge difference whether they
were found positive after 20 amplification cycles or after 45 cycles.
My interest is getting at the truth, not politics. But today's
meeting seemed concerned about county cases showing percentage
improvements before a Feb. 14 deadline One way to achieve that in a
hurry might be to re-examine recent cases and reclassify any that
were incorrectly counted due to amplification cycles higher than 33,
then continue using that rule for new cases. Not only would that be
the right thing to do, it might achieve the "negative cases" Greg
ruefully joked are needed!
Yours truly,
Stephen Schumacher
2023 E. Sims Way #200
Port Townsend, WA 98368
(360) 821-9509
--- Pubic Comment sent 8:28 PM 1/31/2021 ---
Dear Jefferson County Commissioners,
On September 2, 2020, I sent the following Public Comment to the
Jefferson County Board of Health and Health Officer Dr. Tom Locke:
"Per the August 29 New York Times report [of 90% false positives at
40-cycle threshold], I'm concerned about the criteria used todetermine confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Jefferson County. Do allthese cases exhibit symptoms, or are "cases" being equated topositive test results? If the latter, what percentage of casesexhibit symptoms? Are positive test results being recorded using PCRtests, and if so, what is the Cycle Threshold value used for these tests?"
I never received any answers to these questions nor have seen themaddressed by Dr. Locke in the press.
Last week the Port Townsend Free Press reported that JeffersonHealthcare is "using a PCR assay with a 45-cycle threshold, wellbeyond the outer limits of reliability."https://www.porttownsendfreepress.com/2021/01/25/is-jefferson-county-health-department-overstating-covid-case-numbers/
This revelation raises various accountability issues, including:
1) Why did our county have to wait nearly 4 months to learn about its45-cycle threshold from a fortuitous Public Records Request?
2) Since Dr. Locke was also Clallam Health Officer until recently, isthis same unreliable 45 Ct test also in use throughout Clallam County?
3) Was the choice to use this 45 Ct test ever discussed and approvedby the Jefferson County Board of Health or County Commissioners? Ifnot, was it ever even reported and its significance explained to them?
4) Does Dr. Locke or anybody else keep statistical track ofcumulative cycle counts for positive tests and resulting cases in ourcounty, or is this info unavailable or being ignored? Could thisinformation be regularly published in the media, or at least be madeavailable upon request?
5) Does our county always order a second test following a positivePCR result, and if not, how often and on what basis? Are allpositive tests treated as COVID-19 cases regardless of symptoms, andif not, how often has high cycle count been used to discard extremelyweak positive test results?
6) How many county residents have been reported as cases,quarantined, and contact-traced based on cycle counts above 33, whenthe CDC shows "it is extremely difficult to detect any live virus ina sample above a threshold of 33 cycles"?
Yours truly,Stephen Schumacher2023 E. Sims Way #200Port Townsend, WA 98368