HomeMy WebLinkAbout029Michelle Farfan
From:
Sent:
To:
Cc:
Subject:
Attachments:
David W, Johnson < djohnson@cojefferson.wa.us >
Tuesday, May 27,2014 1l-:10 AM
Barbara Moore-Lewis
David W. Johnson
FW: Pleasant Harbor SEIS
MPR SEIS 5-22[3].docx
FYI as requested.
From : Ga rth Man n Ima ilto:Ga rth. Ma nn @statesmangroup.com]
Sent:Saturday, May 24,2074 5:53 AM
To: David W. Johnson
Subject: [BULK] FW: Pleasant Harbor SEIS
David
Here is the DRAFT report form the Economist at Wright Johnson LLC pursuant to the jobs being created at Pleasant
Harbor Marina and Golf Resort & SPA.
Please provide a quick read and let us know if this report meets your requirements before the final package is included
in the SEIS.
Thank you
Garth
M. Garth Mann
President & C.E.O
P:403-256-4151
M:4O3-899-9222
F:403-256-6100
7370 Sierra Morena Blvd. S.W.
Calgary, Alberta
T3H 4H9
www.statesm a ngro u p.ca<http ://www.statesma ngrou p.ca/>
From: marianna tarantur [mailto:marianna@wrightjohnsonllc.com]
Sent: Friday, May 23, 2014 9:14 AM
To: Garth Mann
Cc: Mac Apple
Subject: Re: Pleasant Harbor SEIS
HiGarth:
Attached is the SEIS report from the economist. Please let me know if you have questions.
Marianna
1
From:Garth Mann <Garth.Mann@statesmangroup.com<mailto:Garth.Mann@statesmangroup.com>>
Date:Thursday, May 75,2014 9:32 PM
To : a z <ma ria nna @wrightjohnsonllc.com<mailto:marianna @wrightjohnsonllc.com>>
Subject: RE: Pleasant Harbor SEIS
Thank you...we are being pressured by the County
M. Garth Mann
President & C.E.O
P:403-256-4151
M:403-899-9222
F:403-256-6100
7370 Sierra Morena Blvd. S.W.
Calgary, Alberta
T3H 4H9
www.statesma ngro u p.ca<http ://www.statesm a ngrou p.ca/>
From: Marianna Tarantur Imailto:marianna@wrightjohnsonllc.com]
Sent: Thursday, May 15, 2014 7 :32 PM
To: Garth Mann
Cc: Thomas Martin
Subject: Re: Pleasant Harbor SEIS
I will get you an update ASAP but I know the economist is working on it.
Marianna
Sent from my iPhone
On May 15,2OL4, at 9:30 PM, "Garth Mann"
<Ga rth. Mann @statesmangrou p.com<mailto:Garth. Mann@statesmangroup.com>> wrote
Marianna:
Please read below.....HELP !
M. Garth Mann
President & C.E.O
P:403-256-4151
M:4O3-899-9222
F:403-256-6100
7370 Sierra Morena Blvd. S,W.
Calgary, Alberta
T3H 4H9
www.statesma ngro u p.ca<http ://www.statesma ngrou p.ca/>
From: peckassoc@comcast.net<mailto:peckassoc@comcast.net> [mailto:peckassoc@comcast.net]
Sent:Thursday, May 15,20L4 3:35 PM
To:Garth Mann
Cc: Paul Hospelhorn - USA
2
Subject: Pleasant Harbor SEIS
Ga rth,
The SEIS issue date may have to be moved back again by at least 2 weeks if the economic report that Karen had
requested is not received by the end of next week. lf the schedule moves again - the end of the approval process will be
delayed into 20L5.
Do you have an expected date for the report?
Dwight's General Sewer Plan has received an initial review by Karen and corrections made by Dwight. The completed
drafts Water Plan and General Sewer Plan are expected no later than May 27.
Thank you
Craig
3
wRTGHT JOHNSON
professional authors and analysts
An Economic Analysis of Earnings
Pursuant to Jefferson County Board of County Commissioners' Condition
639 for the PleasantHarbor Master Planned Resort (XTIPR)
By
Wright Johnson ,LLC
May 201,4
205 !7orth Avenue, Suite 201, Palm Beach, FL 33480
Telephone: (561) 282-6099
Email: info@wrightj ohnsonllc. com
1. Introduction
Wright Johnson, T T.Q, ('\UfJ') has been tetained to perform an economic assessment of earnings of
the Pleasant Harbor Master Planned Resott (IvtPR) employees in conformity with the Jefferson
County Board of County Commissionets' condition 639, which states:
"The developer shall commission a study of the number of jobs expected to be created as a
ditect or indirect result of the MPR that ean 80oh or less of the Brinnon ^re ^yet^gemedian income (AMD. The developer shall provide affordable housing (e.g., no mote than
30o/o of household income) fot the Brinnon MPR workers roughly ptopottional to the
number of jobs created that earn 80%o or less of the Bdnnon area AMI. The developer may
satisfr this condition through dedrcation of land, payment of in lieu fee, or onsite housing
development."
2. Methods & Assumptions
The analysis considers the impacts of the construction and operation of the MPR project, which will
operate vrithin the following industry clusters:1
Non-Residential Building Construction - NAICS code 2362: This industry comprises
establishments primarily tesponsible for the construction (including new work, additions, alterations,
maintenance, and repatrs) of commercial and institutional buildings and related structures, such as
stadiums, gtain elevatots, and indoor swimmtng facilities. This industry includes establishments
tesponsible for the on-site assembly of modular or prefabricated commercial and institutional
buildings. Included in this industry are commercial and institutional building general contractors,
commercial and institutional building fot-sale builders, commetcial and institutional building design-
build firms, and commercial and institutionat building project construction management firms.
Utility System Constuction - NAICS code 237t This industry comprises establishments
primarily engaged in the construcdon of watet and sewer lines, mains, pumping stations, treatrnent
plants, and stotage tanks. The wotk pedotmed may include new work, reconstruction, tehabiJitation,
and repairs. Specialty trade contractors ate included in this group if they are engaged in activities
primarily related to water, sewer line, and related structures construction. All structures (including
buildings) that are integal parts of water and sewer networks (e.g., storage tanks, pumping stations,
water tfeatrnent plants, and sewage tteatment plants) ate included in this industry.
Food and Beverage Stotes- NAICS code 445: Industries in the Food and Beverage Stores
subsector usuah retail food and bevetage merchandise from fixed point-of-sale locations.
Establishments in this subsectot have special equipment (e.g., fteezers, refr{gerated display cases,
1 NAICS code definitions provided by the U.S. Census Buteau.
Page l1
To accomplish this, the analysis estimates the number of direct and indfuect jobs associated with the
project, as well as average urages associated with these jobs. The analysis utilizs5 the RIMS II model
to estimate these jobs and wages as discussed below.
refdgerators) for displaying food and beverage goods. They have staff tained in the processing of
food ptoducts to guarantee the propet storage and sanitary conditions required by regulatory
authority.
Amusement, Gambling, and Recteation Industries - NAICS 77i: Industries in the
Amusement, Gambling, and Recreation Industries subsector (1) operate facilities where patrons can
primarily engage in sports, recreation, amusement, ot gambling activities andf or (2) provide other
amusement and recreadon services, such as supplying and servicrng amusement devices in places of
business operated by others; operating sports teams, clubs, or leagues engaged in plapng games for
recteational purposes; and guiding tours without using transportation equipment.
Accommodation - NAICS code 721: Industries in the Accommodation subsector ptovide
lodgtng or shott-term accolilnodations for travelers, vacadoftets, and othets. There is a wide range
of establishments in these indusries. Some provide lodgtng only; while others provide meals,
laundry services, and recreadonal facilities, as well as lodging. Lodgrng establishments are classified
in this subsectot even if the ptovision of complementary services generates more revenue. The types
of complemeflt^ry services provided vary ftom establishment to establishment.
Food Services and Drinking Places - NAICS 722: lndustries in the Food Senices and Drinking
Places subsectot prepare meals, snacks, and bevetages to customer order for immediate on-premises
and off-premises consumption. There is a wide range of establishments in these industries. Some
ptovide food and drink only; while others provide various combinations of seating space,
warterfwutress services and incidental amenities, such as limited entertainment. The industries in the
subsector are grouped based on the type and level of services provided. The industry groups are
special food services, such as food service contractors, caterets, and mobile food services; drinking
places; and restaurants and other eating places.
A summary of the proposed project costs is as follows:
Building Construction: Construcdon cost of ptoject buildings is estimated at$13,526,716 (:r;,2014
dollars). This includes only the hard construction costs and excludes marketing, engineering, legal,
insutance, taxes, design and permitting, sales tax, and condngency costs.
As the cuffent RIMS II multipliers are based on 2010 data, we must deflate the construction
expenditures to 2010 dollats. Accotding to the Tumer Construcdon Building Cost Index,
construction costs have been on an increase fuom 2010 thtough 2074. The cost index in 2010 was
799 vs. the 1st quarter 2074 cost index of 885. Thetefore, the construcdon costs for this project will
need to be reduced to 201,0 dollars.
Maritime Village
Construction Camp
Remodeling Projects
$ 8,997,700
200,000
669,536
3.660.480
TOTAL CONSTRUCTION COSTS $ 7i,526,716
Marina Docks/Fuel Lines
Page l2
Summirrv of Estimatcd Construction Costs
Desctiption Arnount
Qurlur
lst QuarEr 2O!.4
4th Orarter 2ofil
3rd QuarEr 2offi
2nd QuarEr 2OfiI
885
878
868
859
A95
o.80
1,.15
1.05
L1A
Ycar
2o.L3
20L2
20.41
2010
200s
2008
20,07
2006
2005
2004
2003
2o,o2
20,01,
864
830
8L2
799
832
908
854
793
7L7
655
62L
619
613
AT
4.1,
2.L
1-6
4.O
€.4
6.3
7.7
10.6
9.5
5.4
0.3
1-O
3,0
The Turner BuHdirS Cost lnder is determined by the
followlng factors conddered on a nationr|id€ basis:
labor rate$ and productlvlty, material prlces and the
competltive condltion of the marletplace.
IUtner
To convert this figwe to 2010 dollats we use the 2074 index of 885 and divide it by the 2010 index
of 799. This gives us a figute of 885/799 = 1.108. To convett thefi1,3,526,716 cost 1n2014 dollars
to 2010 dollats, rJr.e2074 expenditure is diyided by 1.108, to yield fi72,272,255.
Infrastructute Consuuction: Infrastructure construction cost is estimated at $25,507,764 (n 2014
dollars). This amount does not include sales tax, design, survey, permit, inspection and contingency
fees.
2014 Dollars 2010 Dollars
$73,526,776 $72,272,255
Page l3
Avreragp lnder
Building Construction Expenditute 2074 Dollats vs. 2010 Dollats
US Highway 101
Black Point Road
\)[DFW Boat Access Road
Madtime Area
Water
W'astewater Reclamation Plant CIfRP)
Miscellaneous
572,397
796,735
169,500
2,348,740
1,064,000
4,102,000
17.064.992
$
$ 25,587,764
Strrnrnary of Estimirted Infrastructure Construction Costs
2014 Dollars 2010 Dollars
$25,507,764 ff23,029,043
To convert this figute to 2010 dollars we use the 201,4 index of 885 and divide it by the 2010 index
of 799. This gives us a figure ot885/799 = 1.108. To convert the $25,507,764 n 2014 dollars to
2010 dollats, the 2014 expenditure is divided by 1.108, to yield $23,029,043.
Facility Opetations: Per the Developer, the total annual operadons cost of the project will be
$3.423 million (n 2014 dollars). The project will include multiple operating components, including
food service, marina, accommodadon, recreadon and retail. Operations cost breakdown for these
industries is summarized below.
Village Retail
This portion of the project includes grocery store tetail with an estimated operating cost of
$466,005. These costs are provided n 2014 dollars. To convett this figure to 2010 dollars we use
the 201,3 Consumet Price Index (CP! fot food and beverage, which is 237.0 and divide it by the
Village
Marina
TTA (fun center)
Suites
Food Services
445-Food and Beverage Stores
7 l3-Amusement, Gambling, and
Recreation Industries2
721-Accommodation
722-Food Services and Drinking
Places
466,005
643,182
1,275,796
453,314
584"340
$
Suntntarv of Estimatctl Opcrations (losts
2 Office/bookkeeping operating costs are included in the Marina/TTA operations.
Page l4
Inftastructure Construction Expeuditure 2014 Dollars vs. 2010 Dollars
Dcscription NAICS Code Operations
Cost
2014 Dollars 2010 Dollats
$466,005 fi432,609
2010 CPI of 220.0. This gives us a figure of 237.0/220.0 = 1.077. To convert the $466,005 tn 2014
dollats to 2010 dollats, the 2074 expenditure is divided by 1 .077 , to yield ff432,609 .
Am u sem e nt an d Re cre atio n
This portion of the project includes Marina and Family Fun Centet uses with an esdmated combined
opetating cost of $1,918,978. These costs are provided n 201,4 dollars. To convert this figure to
2010 dollars we use the 2073 Consumet Price Index (CPI) for recteation, which is 115.3 and divide
it by the 2010 CPI of 713.3. This gives us a figure of 115.3/1.13.3 = 1.01,7. To convert the
$1,918,978 tn 2014 dellats to 201,0 dollars, the 2074 expenditute is divided by 7,01,7, to yield
$1,886,464.
S uites f Accommodations
This portion of the project includes guest suites with an estimated operating cost of $453,314.
These costs are provided Ln 2014 dollars. To convert this figrue to 2010 dollars we use the 2074
Consumet Pdce Index (CPD' fot lodging away ftom home, which is 148.4 and divide it by the 2010
CPI of 133.7. This gives us a figure of 148.4/133.7 = 1..770. To convert the $453,3141n2014
dollats to 2070 dollars, rhe 2014 expenditure is divided by 1 . 1 1 0, to yield $408,226.
Food Seruices
This portion of the ptoject includes food services space urith an estimated operating cost of
$584,340. These costs are provided n 2014 dollars. To convert this figure to 2010 dollars we use
the 2013 Consumet Price Index (CP! for food and beverage, which is 237.0 and divide it by the
2010 CPI of 220.0. This gives us a figue of 237.0/220.0 = 7.077. To convert the $584,340 n 2014
dollars to 2010 dollars, rhe 2074 expenditute is divided by 7.077, to yield $542,463.
3 Lodging away from home is the only CPI component used in this analysis for which 2074 data is available. Analysis
uses the latest CPI data as of April 2074. Latest data for all other components is through December 2013.
2014 Dollars 2010 Dollars
$1,918,978 $1,996,464
2074Dollarc 2010 Dollars
$453,314 $408,226
Page l5
Operating Cost 2014 Dollars vs. 2010 Dollars
Operatiag Cost 2014 Dollars vs. 2010 Dollars
Operating Cost 2014 Dollars vs. 2010 Dollars
2014 Dollars 2010 Dollars
$584,340 $542,463
Given these construcdon costs, the RIMS II model can be used to estimate direct and indfuect
employment associated with the proiect.
3. Findings & Calculations
Shown in the chart below are the actual RIMS II final demand and employmeflt multipliers for
Jefferson County, WA. These multipliers are used to estimate employment associated with the
ptoject.
RIMS II Multipliets (2002/2010)
Total Multipliers for Output, Earnings, Employment, and Value Added by Detailed Industry
effercon WA
B uildins C ons truction and Cons truction o f Infrastructure
Fot the construction sector OIAICS code 230000) the final demand multiplier is 9.7481 and the
employment multiplier ts 7.5747. The final demand multiplier is used to determine the total number
of jobs produced based on the expendrtures for construction of the ptoject's buildings. This figure
is$72.21,2 million (in 2010 dollats). Therefore thete would be$12.212 times 9.7481., or 719.046 jobs
supported by this project, including dirssl and indirect jobs.
The final demand multiplier is also used to determine the total number of jobs produced based on
the expenditutes fot construction of the project's inftasttucture. This figure is $23.029 million (in
2010 dollats). Therefote thete would be $23.029 times 9.7481, or 224.489 jobs supported by this
ptoject, including ditect and indirect jobs.
Tables 3-1 and 3-2 show the combined economic impact of the ptoject's building and infrastructure
construcdon expenditures fot the 20 majot industrial classifications in the RIMS II input/output
model.
Multiplier
Final Demand Direct EffectIndustryOutput
(dollats)
Eamings
(dollats)
Employment
(iobs)
Value-added
(dollars)
Earnings
(dollats)
Employment
(iobs)
Construction (230000)1.4324 0.4448 9.7481 0.7510 1.3304 1.5147
Retail Trade (4A0000)1.3464 0.3986 13.9498 0.8737 7.2609 1.2553
Amusement and
Recreation Industries
o13800)
1.3790 0.4170 25.6376 0.8563 1.2881 1.1400
Hotels, Motels and Other
Accommodations
o21A00)
1.3920 0.3159 13.411.6 0.8141 1.5268 1.3275
Food Services and
Drinking Places (722000)1.3993 0.4169 19.6494 0.7622 1.3132 7.7907
Page l6
Operating Cost 2014 Dollars vs. 2010 Dollam
Industry group
Agdculture, forestry, fishing
Mining
Utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale trade
Retail tade
Transpotation and warehousing
Information
Finance and insurance
Real estate and rental and leasing
Professional, scientific, services
Management of companies
Administrative and waste management
Educational services
Health care and social assistance
Arts, entertainment, and recreadon
Accommodation
Food services and drinking places
Other services
Households
Total 343.532 $ 50,486,685 $ 15,675,330
Employment
0.543
2.329
't.026
227.853
9.018
2.079
36.084
2.284
t.621
7.945
8.500
5.632
0.039
3.41,5
2.736
13.257
2.764
2.763
11.485
6.654
2.714
Output
81,055 $
384,730
472,233
35,406,933
2,132,099
467,661
3,245,724
271,,359
366,510
595,578
2,431.,650
891,605
70,572
225,544
119,820
1,444,993
97,627
260,796
697,779
895,729
Earnings
17,621
91,055
84,579
t',t ,837,552
401,757
733,977
7,077,425
702,200
88,103
123,345
98,676
34g,gg9
3,524
88,103
38,765
606,150
31,777
74,007
222,020
260,796
21,145
$
Table3-1 showsthattherewillbe atotalof 343.532 newiobscreatedftomtheconstructionof the
project's buildings and infrastructure. Total output urill increase by about $50.487 million, while
total household earnings will increase by about $15.675 million.
Table 3-2 shows that output per new worker for the construction sector would be about $155,394,
with avemge annual earnings of about $51,953. For all new workers, the corresponding fi.gures are
fi746,963 and $45,630.
Page l7
Table 3-1. Increase in Employment, Oulput, and Earnings for $35.241million (2010
dollars) in Construction Expenditures
Industry grcup
Agriculture, forestry, fi shing
Mining
Utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Transportation and warehousing
Information
Finance and insurance
Real estate and rental and leasing
Ptofessional, scientific, services
Management of companies
Administrative and waste management
Educational services
Health care and social assistance
Arts, entertainment, and recreation
Accommodation
Food services and ddnking places
Other services
Households
Total 343.532$146,963$45,630
Employment
0.543
2.329
7.026
227.853
9.018
2.079
36.084
2.284
1.627
1.945
8.500
5.632
0.039
3.415
2.736
73.257
2.164
2.763
77.485
6.654
2.714
Output/
Employee
$ 149,351 $
764,902
460,497
155,394
236,420
222,034
99,950
778,827
226,087
306,159
286,070
758,323
)1) 1)1at -tt at
66,047
56,706
709,043
42,345
94,388
60,755
734,534
Earnings/
Employee
32,468
34,796
82,474
57,953
44,549
64,407
28,030
44,753
54,348
63,406
17,609
67,952
90,909
25,900
18,1.52
45,745
74,658
26,786
tg,33t
39,795
7,792
Villaoe Retail
-
The final demand multiplier for the Retail Trade industry is 13.9498 and the employment multiplier
ts 7.3464. The final demand multiplier is used to determine the total number of jobs produced by
operating expenditures of the retail portion of the project. This figure is $432,609 (in 2010 dollars).
Therefote there would be $0.433 times 13.9498, or 6.035 jobs supported by this project, including
direct and indkect jobs.
Tables 3-3 and 3-4 show the economic impact of operating expenditures of the retail portion of the
project for the 20 najor industrial classifications in the RIMS II input/output model.
Page l8
Table 3-2. Oulput and Eamings Per New Worket for $35.241 million (2010 dollar$) in
Constnrction
Industry group
Agriculture, forestry, fishing
Mining
Utilities
Constnrction
Manufacturing
Wholesale trade
Reail trade
Transportation and warehousing
Information
Finance and insurance
Real estate and rental and leasing
Professional, sciendf,tc, services
Management of companies
Administrative and waste management
Educational services
Health care and social assisance
Arts, entertainmeflt, afld recreadon
Accommodation
Food services and drinking places
Other services
Households
Employment
0.009
0.001
0.020
0.019
0.051
0.016
5.018
0.066
0.039
0.026
0.222
0.032
0.001
0.056
0.028
0.145
0.027
0.027
0.138
0.065
0.030
Ouput Earnings
$7,277 $
87
9,085
2,942
8,782
3,634
451,601
6,922
7,052
8,003
37,037
3,591
173
3,591
7,557
L5,790
1,168
2,596
8,349
9,307
7,644
995
1,990
1,039
140,571
3,201
1,860
7,644
2,423
7,574
87
7,429
519
6,619
389
735
2,639
2,596
216
303
172,357Total6.03s $582,465 $
Table 3-3 shows that there will be atotil of 6.035 new jobs created from the operation of the retail
Pottion of the project. Total output will increase by about fi582,465, while total household earnings
will increase by about fi772,357.
Table 3-4 shows that output per neu/ worker for the tetail trade sector would be about $89,991, with
^verage
annual eamings of about $28,000. For all new workers, the corresponding figures are
$96,518 and $28,560.
Page l9
Table 3-3. Increase in Employment' Ouqlu! and Earnings for $432,609 (2010 dollars) in
Retail Operations
Industry Soup
Agriculture, forestry, fishiag
Mining
Utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale ttade
Retail trade
Transportation and warehousing
Information
Finance and insurance
Real estate and rental and leasing
Professional, scientific, services
Management of companies
Administrative and waste management
Educational services
Health cate and social assistance
Arts, entertainment, and recreadon
Accommodation
Food services and drinking places
Other services
Households
Total 6.035$96,518$28,560
Employment
0.009
0.001
0.020
0.019
0.051
0.016
5.018
0.066
0.039
0.026
0.222
0.032
0.001
0.056
0.028
0.145
0.027
0.027
0.138
0.065
0.030
Output/
Employee
$ 136,585
766,667
464,602
155,963
171,ggg
223,404
99,997
104,787
192,723
31.1.,449
166,764
113,699
))) ,)')2aarale
63,895
56,426
109,118
42,789
94,637
60,502
742,290
Earnings/
Employee
$ 34,1.46
84,071
52,752
38,950
63,830
28,000
48,461
48,045
63,973
10,910
47,945
171,717
25,404
18,809
45,740
14,263
26,814
79,122
39,709
7,246
Amusement and Recteation
The final demand multiplier for the Amusement and Recread.on industry is 25.6376 and the
employment multiplier is 1.3790. The final demand multiplier is used to determine the total number
of jobs produced based on operadng expenditures for the Marina and Family Fun Center portions
of the project. This figure is $1,886,464 (ll:2010 dollars). Therefore there would be $1.886 times
25.637 6, or 48.365 jobs supported by this ptoject, including dirsgl and indirect jobs.
Tables 3-5 and 3-6 show the economic impact of operating expenditures for the recreation portion
of the project for the 20 ma)or industrial classifications in the RIMS II input/output model.
Page ll0
3-4. Output and Earnings Per New Worket f<x $432,609 (20A0 dollars) in Retail
Industry group
Agriculture, forestry, fishing
Mining
Utilities
Construcdon
Manufacturing
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Transpotation and warehousing
Information
Finance and iosurance
Real estate and rental and leasing
Professional, scientifi c, services
Management of companies
Administrative and waste managemerit
Educational services
Health care and social assistance
Arts, entertainment, and recreation
Accommodation
Food services and &inking places
Other services
Households
Employment
0.039
0.003
0.123
0.093
0.244
0.069
0.961
0.156
0.743
0.702
1.095
0.158
0.006
0.333
0.766
0.667
42.699
0.156
0.706
0.377
0.136
Output
s$
Earnings
48.36s $
6,791
566
56,971
14,526
43,389
15,280
86,400
16,790
26,599
31.,693
775,630
79,679
1,,321.
22,449
9,62',1.
72,063
1,995,996
14,774
42,823
48,293
2,601,434 $
1,321,
189
10,376
4,905
9,621
4,339
26,976
7,357
6,791
6,603
72,073
8,112
566
8,678
3,018
30,183
614,044
4,150
1.3,593
13,01,7
1,1,32
Total 787,033
Table 3-5 shows that there will be a total of 48.365 new jobs created from the operation of
recreation portion of the project. Total output will increase by about $2.601 million, while total
household eamings will increase by about $787,033.
Table 3-6 shows that output per new worker fot the recteation sector would be about $44,401, with
^vew,ge
annual eamings of about $14,381. For all new workers, the corresponding figures ate
$53,788 md$76,273.
Page 111
Tabte 3-5. Increase in Emptoymentr Oulput, and Eatnings fot $1.886 million (2010 doltars)
in Recreation Operations
Industry gfoup
Agricultue, forestry, fishing
Mining
Utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Transportation and warehousing
Information
Finance and insurance
Real estate and rental and leasing
Professional, sciendftc, services
Management of companies
Administrative and waste management
Educational services
Health care and social assistance
Atts, entertainment, and recreation
Accommodation
Food services and drinking places
Other services
Households
Total 48.365 $53,788 $ 16,273
Employment
0.039
0.003
0.123
0.093
0.244
0.069
0.961
0.156
0.143
0.102
1.095
0.158
0.006
0.333
0.766
0.667
42.699
0.156
0.706
0.377
0.736
Output/
Employee
$ 173,077 $
166,667
463,902
155,970
778,156
227,91.9
89,945
t07,g7g
196,016
377,171
760,434
724,402
225,806
67,394
57,823
109,049
44,407
94,545
60,695
752,290
Eamings/
Employee
33,654
55,556
84,485
52,632
39,504
63,01.4
28,083
47,273
47,493
64,875
11,029
51,435
96,774
26,049
78,747
45,675
1.4,397
26,667
79,251
47,047
8,310
Suites /A ccommodations
The final demand multiplier fot the Accommodations industry is 73.4776 and the employment
multipliet ts 7.3920. The final demand multiplier is used to determine the total number of jobs
produced based on operating expenditues fot the guest suites portion of the project. This figure is
$408,226(in2010dollars). Thereforetherewouldbe$0.408times13.4176,or5.475jobssupported
by this ptoject, including di'ect and indirect jobs.
Tables 3-7 and 3-8 show the economic impact of operating expenditures for the accommodations
portion of the ptoject for the 20 ma)or industrial classifications in the RIMS II input/oulput model.
P age l12
Tabte 3-6. Oulput and Earnings Per New lforker for $1.886 million (2010 dollarc) in
Recreation
Industry group
Agriculture, forestry, fishing
Mining
Utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale trade
Retail uade
Transportation and warehousing
Information
Finance and insurance
Real estate and rental and leasing
Professional, scientif,rc, services
Management of companies
Administmtive and waste management
Educational services
Health care and social assistance
Arts, entertainment, and recreadon
Accommodation
Food services and drinking places
Other senrices
Households
Total
Employment
0.005
0.001
0.036
0.037
0.052
0.011
0.767
0.140
0.028
0.018
0.157
0.032
0.002
0.082
0.018
0.109
0.024
4.162
0.307
0.067
0.022
Output
$$
Earnings
776
1,22
1.6,81.9
5,71.5
9,961
2,327
14,982
13,96L
5,71.5
5,674
27,106
3,960
367
5,878
980
17,879
1,021,
411,818
78,574
10,532
763
47
3,062
't,91.9
2,723
694
4,654
8,083
1,429
1,194
1.,715
7,633
163
2,082
327
4,980
367
85,523
5,878
2,898
163
s.47s $568,169 $729,081
Table 3-7 shows that there will be a totzl of 5.475 new jobs created from the operation of
accommodad.on amenities portion of the project. Total oulput will increase by about $568,169,
while total household eamings will increase by about $129,081.
Table 3-8 shows that output per new worker for the accommodation sector would be about $98,941,
with average annual earnings of about ff20,547. For all new u/orkers, the corresponding figures are
fi1,03,777 and$23,577.
Page 113
Table 3-7. Increase in Employment, Output alnd Earnings for $4081226 Q0l0 dollars) in
Accommodations Operations
Industry group
Agdculture, forestry, fi shing
Mining
Utilities
Constnrction
Manufacturing
Wholesale trade
Retail uade
Ttansportation and warehousing
Information
Finance and insurance
Real estate and rental and leasing
Professional, sciendftc, services
Management of companies
Administrative and waste management
Educational services
Health care and social assistance
Arts, entertainment, and receadon
Accommodation
Food services and drinking places
Othet seryices
Households
Total 5.475$103,777$23,577
Employment
0.005
0.001
0.036
0.037
0.052
0.011
0.767
0.740
0.028
0.018
0.157
0.032
0.002
0.082
0.018
0.109
0.024
4.762
0.307
0.067
0.022
Output/
Employee
$ 743,939 $
766,667
463,964
754,967
793,344
220,930
89,963
99,738
204,679
373,063
772,737
722,475
236,842
77,928
55,772
709,275
42,882
98,947
60,586
157,509
Earnings/
Employee
30,303
55,556
84,459
57,991.
47,204
65,891
27,974
57,743
51,170
65,315
70,926
50,505
105,263
25,475
19,391
45,813
15,437
20,547
19,774
43,346
7,313
Food Services
The final demand multiplier for the Food Services industry is 19.6494 and the employment
multiplier is 1.3993. The final demand multiplier is used to determine the total number of jobs
produced based on operating expenditures for the food services portion of the project. This figure
ts $542,463 (in 2010 dollats). Therefore there would be $0.542 times 79.6494, or 10.659 jobs
supported by this project, including ditect and indirect jobs.
Tables 3-9 and 3-10 show the economic impact of operating expenditures for the food seryices
portion of the project for the 20 maior industrial classifications in the RIMS II input/output model.
Page 114
able 3-8. Oulput and Earnings Pcr New Worket for Q010 dollats) in
Accommcdations
Industry group
Agriculture, forestry, fishing
Mining
Utilities
Construction
Manufacruring
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Transportation and watehousing
Information
Finance and insurance
Real estate and rental and leasing
Professional, sciendfi c, services
Management of companies
Administrative and waste management
Educational services
Health care and social assistance
Arts, entertainment, and recreation
Accommodation
Food services and drinking places
Other services
Households
Employment
0.019
0.001
0.034
0.026
0.704
0.031
0.292
0.099
0.041
0.025
0.274
0.038
0.002
0.061
0.031
0.190
0.052
0.052
9.157
0.091
0.039
Output Earnings
10.6s9 $
2,875
163
15,677
4,068
23,489
6,835
26,309
1,0,1,44
7,703
7,866
47,1.94
4,557
542
4,340
1.,692
20,722
1,953
4,882
554,886
1,3,1,28
759,015 $226,207
$$597
54
2,821,
1,356
3,960
1,953
8,191
5,425
2,007
1,627
2,984
1,ggg
217
1,573
542
8,679
705
1,410
176,1,92
3,699
325
Total
Table 3-9 shows that there will be a total of 10.659 new jobs created from the operation of food
services portion of the project. Total output will increase by about $759,015, while total household
eamings will increase by about fi226,207.
Table 3-10 shows that output per new worker fot the food services sector would be about $60,597,
with average annual earnings of about $79,247. For all flew workets, the corresponding figures are
$71,208 ^ndfizl,222.
Page 115
Table 3-9. Increase in Employ3."33"?ut, and Earnings for.$542,463 (2010 dollats) in
Food Seryices Operations
Industry group
Agriculture, forestry, fishing
Mining
Utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
\iTholesale uade
Retail trade
Transportation and warehousing
Information
Finance and insurance
Real estate and rental and leasing
Profes sional, scientiFrc, services
Management of companies
Administrative and waste management
Educational services
Health care and social assistance
Arts, entertainment, and recreation
Accommodation
Food services and &inking places
Other senrices
Households
Total 10.659$71,208$21,222
Employment
0.019
0.001
0.034
0.026
0.104
0.031
0.292
0.099
0.041
0.025
0.274
0.038
0.002
0.061
0.031
0.190
0.052
0.052
9.757
0.091
0.039
Output/
Employee
$ 154,519
757,895
464,630
1,55,925
224,935
223,009
90,065
702,730
796,942
311,759
772,175
779,149
277,391
77,620
55,062
709,172
37,578
94,742
60,597
144,823
Earnings/
Employee
, 32,070
52,632
83,601
57,975
37,922
63,717
28,041.
54,675
48,684
64,378
10,885
49,645
96,957
25,962
17,762
45,701
73,570
27,797
79,247
40,694
8,310
$
4. Conclusion
The purpose of the analysis is to estimate the number of direct and indirect jobs associated with the
MPR ptoject and determine aver^ge wages coresponding to these jobs. Given these estimates, as
summarized above, the analysis can determine the numbet of jobs associated with the project that
will eatn ^fl avetage wage of 8070 ot less of the Brinnon atea average median income (AMD.
The Brinnott ^re median income is estimated at$42,6794 and 807o of this AMI amount is estimated
at$34,743.
a U.S. Census Bureau, 2008-2012 American Community Suwey. "Selected Economic Chatacteristics." Data for
Brinnon, lfashin$on.
Page 116
Table 3-10. Output and Earnings Per New Worker for Food(2010
Serices
Construcdon
Table 3-2 shows that an estimated 67 construction-telated iobs will have avetage earnings of 80%
or less of the Brinnon area AMI. This includes direct and indirect jobs associated with the MPR
ptoject construcdon and is summarized below, with average wages for each industry Soup.
Construction: Total Direct and Inditect obs at ot Below the Bdnnon Area AMI
Ooerations
-
Tables 3-4,3-6,3-8, and 3-10 show that an estimated 67 opetations-telated jobs will have average
eamings of 80o/o or less of the Brinnon atea AMI. This includes direct and indirect jobs associated
with the MPR project operation and is summadzed below, with average wages for each industry
soup.
: Total Direct and Inditect obs at ot Below the Brinnon Area AMI
5. About RIMS II Final Demand Methodology
Agriculture, fotestry, fishing
Retail trade
Real estate and rental and leasing
Administrative and waste management
Educational senrices
Arts, entertainment, and recreadon
Accommodation
Food services and drinking places
Total
0.543
36.084
8.500
3.415
2.136
2.764
2.763
11.485
67.089
32,468
29,030
11,609
25,800
78,752
1.4,659
26,786
19.331
23,586
$
$
Agticulture, fotestry, fishing
Retail trade
Real estate and rental and leasing
Administative and waste management
Educational serr.ices
Arts, entertainment, and tecteation
Accommodation
Food services and ddnking places
Total
0.072
6.438
1.748
0.532
0.242
42.802
4.397
10.307
66.538
33,055
29,01,2
1,0,982
25,882
18,187
74,390
20,ggl
19.238
16,918
$
$
The following material has been condensed fiom the RIMS II Uset Handbook
Intoduction and Genetal Comments
Effective planning for public- and private-sector projects and programs at the State and local levels
tequires a systemad.c analysis of the economic impacts of these projects and progtams on affected
Page 117
Earnings/
EmployeeIndustry gtoup Employment
Industry group Employment Eamings/
Employee
regions. In turn, systematic analysis of economic impacts must account for the inter-industry
relationships within regions because these relationships largely determine how regional economies
are likely to respond to project and program changes. Thus, tegional input-output (I-O) multipliers,
which account for inter-rndustry telationships within regions, are usefirl tools for conducting
regional economic impact analysis.
In the 1970s, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) developed a method for estimating regional
I-O muttipliers known as RIMS (R.egional Industrial Multiplier System), which was based on the
wotk of Gatnick and Drake. In the 1980s, BEA completed an enhancement of RIMS, known as
RIMS II (X.egional Input-Output Modeling System), and published a handbook for RIMS II users.
In 7992, BEA published a second edition of the handbook in which the multipliers were based on
more recent data and improved methodology. In 7997, BEA published a third edition of the
handbook that ptovides more detail on the use of the multipliets and the data sources and methods
for estimating them.
RIMS II is based on an accounting framework called an I-O table. For each industry, an I-O table
shows the industrial distribution of inputs purchased and outputs sold. A tlpical I-O table ifl RIMS
II is derived mainly from two data sources: BEA's national I-O table, which shows the input and
ouq)ut structure of neatly 500 U.S. industries, and BEA's regional economic accounts, which are
used to adjust the national I-O table to show a region's industrial structure and trading pattems.
Using RIMS II fot impact analysis has several advantages. RIMS II multipliers can be estimated for
any region composed of one or mote cound.es and for any industry, or group of industries, in the
national I-O table. The accessibility of the main data sources for RIMS II keeps the cost of
estimating regional multipliets relatively low. Empirical tests show that estimates based on relatively
expensive surveys and RIMS Il-based estimates are similar in magnitude.
BEA's RIMS multipliers can be a cost-effective way fot analysts to esdmate the economic impacts of
changes in a regional economy. However, it is impottant to keep in mind that, like all economic
impact models, RIMS provides approximate order-of-magnitude estimates of impacts. RIMS
multipliets ate best suited for estimating the impacts of small changes on a reg'ional economy. For
some applications, users may want to supplement RIMS estimates with information they gather
from the region undergoing the potential change. To use the multipliers for impact analysis
effectively, users must provide geogtaphically and industrially detailed information on the initial
changes in output, earnings, or employment that are associated vrith the project or program under
study. The multipliets can then be used to esdmate the total impact of the proiect or program on
regional ouq)ut, eamings, and employment.
RIMS II is widely used in both the public and private sector. In the public sector, for example, the
Departrnent of Defense uses RIMS II to estimate the regional impacts of military base closings.
State transpotation departrnents use RIMS II to estimate the regional impacts of airpot
construction and expansion. In the pdvate-sectot, analysts and consultants use RIMS II to estimate
the regional impacts of a vaiety of ptojects, such as the development of shopping malls and sports
stadiums.
RIMS II Methodology
RIMS II uses BEA's benchmatk and annual I-O tables fot the nation. Since a particular region may
not contain all the industries found at the national level, some dirsgl input requirements cannot be
Page 118
supplied by that tegion's industries. Input requirements that are not produced in a study region are
identified using BEA's regional economic accounts.
The RIMS II method for estimating regional I-O multipliers can be viewed as a thtee-step process.
In the fust step, the producer portion of the nadonal I-O table is made region-specific by using six-
digrt NAICS location quodents Gar. The LQs estimate the extent to which input requirements are
supplied by firms within the region. RIMS II uses LQs based on two types of data: BEA's personal
income data (by place of residence) are used to calculate LQs rn the service industries; and BEA's
wage-and-salary data. @y place of wotk) ate used to calculate LQs in the non-service industries.
In the second step, the household row and the household column from the national I-O table ate
made region-specific. The household row coefficients, which are derived from the value-added row
of the national I-O table, are adjusted to teflect tegional eamings leakages resulting ftom individuals
working in the region but residing outside the region. The household column coefficients, which are
based on the personal consumption expenditute column of the national I-O table, are adjusted to
account for regional consumption leakages stemming fiom petsonal taxes and savings. In the last
step, the Leontief inversion approach is used to esdmate multipliers. This inversion approach
produces output, earnings, and employment multipliers, which can be used to trace the impacts of
changes in final demand on and indirecdy affected industdes.
Accutacy of RIMS II
Empirical evidence suggests that RIMS II commonly yields multipliers that arc not substantially
different in magnitude from those generated by regional I-O models based on relatively expensive
srrrveys. For example, a comparison of 224 industry-specific multipliets ftom survey-based tables for
Colorado, Washington, and West Virginia indicates that the RIMS II ^verage multipliets
overestimate the average multipliets from the survey-based tables by approximately 5 percent. For
the majodty of indrvidual industry-specific multipliers wrthin these states, the difference between
RIMS II and suwey-based multipliets is less than 10 percent. In addition, RIMS II and survey
multipliers show statistically similar distributions of affected indusuies.
Advantages of RIMS II
There are numerous advantages to using RIMS II. First, the accessibility of the main data sources
makes it possible to esdmate regional multipliets without conducting relatively expensive srrveys.
Second, the level of industrial detail used in RIMS II helps avoid aggtegation errors, which often
occur when industries are combined. Third, RIMS II multipliers calr be compated across areas
because they are based on a consistent set of estimating procedures nationwide. Fourth, RIMS II
multipliers ate updated to teflect the most recent local-arca wage-and-salary znd personal income
data.
Overview of Different Multipliets
RIMS II provides users with five types of multipliers: final demand multipliets for oulput, for
eatnings, and for employment; and direct-effect multipliers for earnings and for employment. These
multipliets measure the economic impact of a change in final demand, in eatnings, or in employment
on a region's economy.
Page 119
The final demand multipliers for output are the basic multipliers from which all other RIMS II
multipliers are derived. In this table, each column entry indicates the change in output in each row
industry that results from a $1 change in final demand in the column industry. The impact on each
row industry is calculated by multiply-g th" f,nal demand change in the column industry by the
multiplier for each row. The total impact on regional output is calculated by muttiplytng the final
demand change in the column industry by the sum of all the multipliets for each tow except the
household row.
RIMS II provides two types of multipliers for estimating the impacts of changes on eamings: final
demand multipliers and direct effect multipliers. These multipliets ate dedved from the table of
final demand output multipliers.
The final demand multipliers for earnings can be used if dzta on final demand changes are avarlzble.
In the final demand eatnings multiplier table, each column entry indicates the change in earnings in
each row industry that results frorn a $1 change in final demand in the column industry. The impact
on each row industry is calculated by multiplying the final demand change in the column industry by
the multipliers for each tow. The total impact on tegional earnings is calculated by muttiplyng the
final demand change in the column industry by the sum of the multipliers for each row.
Employment Multipliets
RIMS II provrdes two types of multipliers for estimating the impacts of changes on employment:
final demand multipliers and direct effect multipliers. These multipliers are derived ftom the able
of final demand output multipliers.
The final demand multipliers for employment can be used if the data on final demand changes are
available. In the final demand employment multiplier table, each column entry indicates the change
in employment in each row industry that tesults from a $1 million change in final demand in the
column industry. The impact on each tow industry is calculated by multiplyrng the final demand
change in the column industry by the multiplier for each row. The total impact on regional
employment is calculated by multiplying the final demand change in the column industry by the sum
of the multipliets fot each row.
The direct effect multipliers for employment can be used if the data on the initial changes in
employment by industry xe avaiTable. In the direct effect employment multiplier table, each entry
indicates the total change rn employment in the region that results from a change of one job in the
tow industry. The total impact on regional employment is calculated by multiplyrng the initial
change in employment in the row industry by the multiplier for the row.
Choosing a Multipliet
The choice of multiplier fot estimating the impact of a project on output, earnings, and employment
depends on the availability of estimates of the initial changes in final demand, earnings, and
employment. If the estimates of the initial changes in all three measrues are avulable, the RIMS II
user can select any of the RIMS II multipliers. In theory, all the impact estimates should be
consistent. If the available estimates are limited to initial changes in final demand, the user can select
a final demand multiplier for impact estimation. If the available estimates are limited to initial
changes in earnings or employrnent, the user can select a direct effect multiplier.
Page 120
The EB-5 regulations ptovide that "jobs created inditsgtly" by a regional center- affiliated business
may be credited to foteign investots who made a qualifying investment in the business. To show
this job cteation, "reasonable" methodologies may be used. 8 CFRS204.6(-)(7). The RIMS II
input/output model has been recognized by the USCIS as an acceptable methodology for showing
job creation resulting ftom a regional center- affrhated investment project.
Page 121