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Hollinger, Kristy < khollinger@eaest.com >
Wednesday, October L5,2014 3:06 PM
David W. Johnson (djoh nson@co jefferson.wa.us); peckassoc@comcast.net
Schipanski, Rich
Pleasant Harbor - Economic Report
MPR SEIS L0-14 [2].docx
Hi David and Garth,
Attached is the Economic Report from Wright Johnson, which we received last night. Rich and I think it looks good, as it
now evaluates jobs at or below 80%of the area AMlfor all phases of the project, instead of just Phase l. The only
revision we requested was for the addition of a couple sentences explaining the basic project parameters on which their
analysis is based.
Now that we have the report, we should have a finaldraft of the SEIS to you by Friday.
Thanksl
Kristy
Kristy M. Hollinger
Planner
@t
EA Engineering, Science and Technology, lnc.
2200 Sixth Ave, Suite 707 | Seattle, WA 98121
(t) 206.452.5350 ext. 1726 | (0 206.443.7646
khollinger@eaest.com
http://www.eaest.com
1
$ ,"ror" printing, think about EI{VTRoNMENTAL responsibility
\T/RIGHT JOHNSON
professional authors and analysts
An Economic Analysis of Earnings
Pursuant to Jefferson Counfy Board of County Commissioners' Condition
639 for the Pleasant Hatbor Master Planned Resort (MPR)
By
Wright Johnson ,LLC
October 2014
205 Woth Avenue, Suite 201, Palm Beach, FL 33480
Telephone: (561) 282-6099
Email: info@wnghtj ohnsonllc. com
1. Introduction
Wnght Johnson, LLC, ("WJ") has been retained to perform an economic assessment of earnings of
the Pleasant Harbor Master Planned Resort (I\,IPR) employees in conformity with the Jefferson
County Board of County Commissioners' condition 639, which states:
"The developer shall commission a study of the number of jobs expected to be created as a
direct or inditect result of the MPR that earn 80o/o or less of the Brinnon ^te average
median income (AMD. The developer shall provide affordable housing (e.g., no more than
30o/o of household income) for the Brinnon MPR workers roughly proportional to the
number of jobs created that earn 800/o or less of the Brinnon atea AMI. The developer may
satis$r this condition through dedication of land, payment of in Iieu fee, or onsite housing
development."
To accomplish this, the analysis estimates the number of direct and indirect jobs associated with the
project, as well as average wages associated with these jobs. The analysis utilizes the RIMS II model
to estimate these jobs and wages as discussed below.
2. Methods & Assumptions
The analysis considers the impacts of the construction and operation of the MPR project, which will
operate within the following industry clusters:1
Residential Building Construction - NAICS code 2361: This industry comprises establishments
primanly responsible for the construction or remodeling and renovauon of single-famiiy and
multifamily residential buildings. Included in this industry are residential housing general contractors
(i.e., new construction, remodeling, or renovating existing residential structures), for-sale buildets
and remodelers of residential structures, residential ptoject construction management firms, and
residential design-build fums.
Non-Residential Building Construction - NAICS code 2362: This industry comprises
establishments primarily responsible for the construction (including new work, additions, alterations,
maintenance, and repairs) of commercial and institutional buildings and related structures, such as
stadiums, grain elevators, and indoor swimming facilities. This industry includes establishments
responsible for the on-site assembly of modular or prefabricated commercial and institutional
burldings. Included in thrs rndustry are commercial and institutional building general contJactors,
commercial and insntutional building fot-sale buildets, commetcial and institutional buitding design-
build fums, and commercial and institutional building project construction management frrms.
Utility System Construction - NAICS code 2371: This industry comprises establishments
primarily engaged in the construction of watet and sewer lines, mains, pumping stations, treatment
plants, and storage tanks, The work performed may include new work, reconstruction, rehabilitation,
and repairs. Specialty trade contractors are included in this group if they are engaged in activities
pnmarily related to water, sewer line, and related structures construction. AII structures (including
1 NAICS code definitions provided by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Page ll
buildings) that are integral parts of water and sewer networks (e.g., storage tanks, pumping stations,
water treatment plants, and sewage treatment plants) ate rncluded in this rndustry.
Food and Beverage Stores- NAICS code 445: Indusfties rn the Food and Beverage Stores
subsectot usually retail food and bevetage metchandise from fixed point-of-sale locations.
Establishments in this subsector have special equipment (e.g., fueezers, refrigerated display cases,
refrigerators) for displaying food and beverag. goodr. They have staff trained in the pro.esting of
food products to guarantee the proper storage and sanitary conditions required by regulatory
authority.
Miscellaneous Stote Retailers - NAICS 453: Industries in the Miscellaneous Store Retailers
subsector retail merchandise from fxed point-of-sale locations (except new or used motor vehicles
and parts; new furnirure and home furnishings; new appliances and electronic products; new
building materials and garden equipment and supplies; food and beverages; health and personal care
goods; gasoline; new clothing and accessories; and new sporing goods, hobby goods, books, and
music). Establishments in this subsector include stores with unique characteristics like florists, used
merchandise stores, and pet and pet supply stores as well as other store retailers.
Amusement, Gambling, and Recteation Industries - NAICS 77i: Industries ln the
Amusement, Gambhng, and Recreation Industties subsector (1) operate facilities where patrons can
primarily engage in sports, recreation, amusement, or gambling activities andf or (2) provide other
amusement and recreation seryices, such as supplyrng and servicing amusement devices in places of
business operated by others; opetating sports teams, clubs, or leagues engaged in playing games for
recreational purposes; and guiding tours without using transportation equipment.
Accommodation - NAICS code 721 Industries in the Accommodation subsector provide
lodgrng or short-term accommodations for travelers, vacationers, and others. There is a wide range
of establishments in these rndustries. Some provide lodgtng only; while others provide meals,
laundry services, and recteational facilities, as well as lodging. Lodgrng establishments are classified
in this subsector even if the provision of complementary services generates more revenue. The types
of complementary services provided vary fuom establishment to establishment.
Food Services and Ddnking Places - NAICS 722: Industries in the Food Sewices and Drinking
Places subsector prepare meals, snacks, and beverages to customet otdet fot immediate on-premises
and off-premises consumption. There is a wide range of establishments in these industries. Some
provide food and dnnk only; while others provide vadous combinations of seating space,
warterf waittess services and incidental amenities, such as limited entertainment. The industries in the
subsector are grouped based on the type and level of seryices provided. The rndustry groups are
special food services, such as food service conftactors, caterers, and mobile food services; ddnking
places; and restaurants and other eating places.
Other Perconal Services - NAICS 8129: This industry group comprises establishments primadiy
engaged in ptoviding personal sewices (except petsonal care services, death care services, or dry-
cleaning and laundry services), This includes Pet Care (except Veterinary) Services, Photofrnishing,
Parking Lots and Garages, and All Other Petsonal Services, including Wedding Chapels.
Petsonal Cate Services - NAICS 8121 This industry group comprises establishments that
provide appearance care services to individual consumets. These include Hair, Nail, and Skin Care
Services and Other Petsonal Care Services.
P age 12
Lessors of Nontesidential Buildings (except Miniwarehouses) - NAICS 53112: This industry
comprises establishments primarily engaged in acting as lessors of buildings (except miniwarehouses
and self-storage units) that arc not used as residences or dwellings. Included in this industry are: (1)
owner-lessors of nonresidenual buildings; (2) establishments renting real estate and then acting as
lessors in subleasing it to others; and (3) establishments providing full service office space, whether
on a lease or service contract basis.
Water, Sewage and Othet Systems - NAICS 2213: Industries in tlus sector include water
treatment plants, water supply systems, sewer systems, andf or sewage treatment facilities that
collect, treat, and dispose of waste.
The proposed project will be constructed and operated in four distinct phases. A summary of the
proposed project construction expenditure and operating employment data is summarized below, by
phase:
Construction: Construction cost of the project is estrmated ^t fi201,,473,493 (n 2014 dollars) over
the four phases. This includes only the hard consftuction costs and excludes matketing, engineering,
legal, insurance, taxes, design and permitting, sales tax, and contingency costs (soft costs). Soft costs
are shown in the below tables, but are not included in the total amount shown for each phase.
Offsite Work
Site Work & Infrastructure
Buildings
Remodeling Projects
Marina Dock/Fuel Lines/Sanitary Updates
Engineering & Consultants*
Legal, Insurance, Taxes*
Marketing*
752,397
30,261,236
10,497,700
688,536
3,660,480
3,335,737
1,181,649
512,170
$
Consulting Fees*
Fees and Permits*
Site Work
Excavation
Construction
General and Administration*
Contingency+
317,000
217,000
940,000
1 35,1 00
32,184,810
4,3 50,000
650,000
$
Sumnrarl'of Estimatcd Construction Costs
Page l3
Phase l-Maritime Center & Infrastructure
Phase I Total s 45,860"349
Phase 2-Olympic Yillage Center & Golf Course
Phase 2Total $ 33,259,910
Consulting Fees*
Fees and Permits*
Site Work
Excavation
Construction
General and Administration*
Contingency*
400,000
435,000
675,000
268,000
32,086,234
3,673,700
400,000
$
Consulting Fees*
Fees and Permits*
Site Work
Excavation
Construction
General and Administration*
Contingency*
132,000
103,000
90,000
123,000
6,172,000
120,000
$
Consulting Fees*
Fees and Permits*
Site Work
Excavation
Construction
General and Administration*
Contingency*
$ 1,036,000
980,000
1,435,000
1,506,000
79,938,000
12,560,000
1,980,000
*Not included in total
As the current RIMS II multipliers are based on 2010 data, we must deflate the construction
expenditures to 2010 dollars. According to the Turnet Construction Building Cost Index,
construction costs have been on an increase from 2070 through 201,4. The cost index in 2010 was
799 vs. the 2nd quarter 201.4 cost index of 896. Therefote, t1le construction costs fot this ptoject
will need to be reduced to 2010 dollars.
Page l4
EEttilllisDescription
Phase 3-Golf Course Center & Terraces
s 33,029,234Phase 3 Total
Phase 3-Staff Housing
$ 6J85,000Phase 3 Total
Phase 4-Seaview Villas & Alpine Vistas
$
$
82,879,000Phase 4 Total
TOTAL
2nd Quarter 2O14
1st Quarter 2014
4th Quarter 2013
3rd Quarter 2013
2013
20L2
20t1,
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
200s
2004
2003
2002
1.24
0.80
1.15
896
885
878
868
864
830
812
799
&i2
908
854
793
777
6s5
62!
619
613
4.1,
2.L
1.6
-4.0
-8.4
6.3
7.7
10.6
9.5
5.4
0.3
1.0
3.0
The Turner Building Co$t lndex is dctermined by the
following factors considered on a *ationwide basls:
labar rates and productivity, material prlces and the
cornpetitive co*dltion ol the marketplace.
To convert this figure to 2010 dollars we use the 2074 index of 896 and divide it by the 2010 index
of 799. Thisgivesusafigure of 896/799=1..1.21.. Toconvettthe$201,473,493 costin2074dollarc
to 2010 dollars, rhe 2074 expenditute is divided by 1..1.21., to yield $179,608,684.
Facilitv Ooerations: Per the Develooer- the oroiect will senerate an estimated225 direct ooeratins
jobs thtough various operatlng components over the fout phases as summarized below.
lirrner
Phase 2014 Dollars 2010 Dollats
$40,895,557Phase 1 $ +s,960,349
33,259,970 29,659,229Phase 2
Phase 3 39,474,234 35,747,291
Phase 4 82,879,000 73,906,608
$ 179,608,684Total$ 201,413,493
Page l5
Aversge lndex
Building Construction Expenditure2Al4 Dollars vs. 2010 Dollars
Food Services
Marina*
TTA (fun center)
Suites
Village
722-Food Services and Drinking Places
713-Amusement, Gambling, and Recreation Industries
721-Accommodation
445-Food and Beverage Stores
13
11
Suites*
Food Services
Wedding Chapel
Spa
Convention Center
Gift Shop
Recreation
Waste Water
721-Accommodation
722-Food Services and Drinking Places
8129-Other Personal Services
8 I 2 1-Personal Care Services
531 12-Lessors of Nonresidential Buildings
45 3 -Miscellaneous Store Retailers
713-Amusement, Gambling, and Recreation
2t
I
2t
6
J
44
Industries
2213-Water , Sewage and Other Systems
Golfx
Food Services
Waste Water
7 l3-Amusement, Gambling, and Recreation Industries
722-Food Services and Drinking Places
2213-Water, Sewage and Other Systems
7
5
4
Waste Water 2213-Water, Sewage and Other Systems
*It should be noted that Security, Shuttle, FaciJities, and Offices positions ate included in
these operating components.
Given these construction costs and operating jobs, the RIMS II model can be used to estimate direct
and indirect construction and indirect employment associated with the project.
Page l6
Sunr of Estimated
Description Implo.vees
Phase 1-Maritime Village Center & Infrastructure
Phase 2-Olympic Village Center & Golf Course
Phase 1 Total
Phase 2Total
b:!
109
Phase 3-Golf Course Center & Terraces
Phase 3 Total 46
Phase 4-Seaview Villas & Alpine Vistas
Phase 4 Total
TOTAL
5
5
225
3. Findirgr & Calculations
Shown in the chart below are the actual RIMS II Frnal demand and employment multipliers for
Jefferson County, $7A. These multipliers are used to estimate employment associated with the
ptoject.
RIMS II Multipliers (2002/2010)
Total Multipliers for Oulput, Earnings, Employment, and Value Added by Detailed Industry
effetson WA
Buildinp Construction and Construction of Infrasttuctute
For the construction sector O{AICS code 230000) the final demand multiplier is 9.7481 and the
employment muluplier is 1.51,47. The final demand multiplier is used to determine the total numbet
of iobs produced based on the expenditures fot construction of the project's buildings. This figure
is $179.609 milhon (in 2010 dollars). Therefore therewouldbe $179.609 times 9.7481,or7,750.825
jobs supported by this project, including ditect and rnditect jobs for all four phases.
Tables 3-1 and 3-4 show the combined economic impact of the project's building and infrastructure
consftuction expenditures, by phase, for the 20 major industrial classifications in the RIMS II
input/output model.
Page l7
Multiplier
Final Demand Direct Effect
Industry
Output
(dollars)
Eamings
(dollats)
Employment
(jobs)
Value-
added
(dollars)
Earnings
(dollars)
Employment
(jobs)
lVater, Sewage, and Othet
Systems (221300)1.3818 7.0101 0.8864 1.4796 1.6666
Construction (230000)1.4324 0.4448 9.7481 0.757 1.3304 1.5147
Retail Trade (4A0000)1.3464 0.3986 13.9498 0.8737 1.2609 1.2553
Real Estate (531000)1.2115 0.183 74.2139 1.3823 7.7363
Amusement and Recreation
Industries (713800)1.3790 0.4170 25.6376 0.8563 1.2881 1.1400
Hotels, Nlotels and Other
Accommodations (721A00)1.3920 0.3159 13.4716 0.8141 1.5268 1.3275
Food Services and Drinking
Places (722000)1.3993 0.41.69 79.6494 0.7622 1.3132 1.1907
1.2770 1.3369Personal Care Services
(812100)1.4149 0.4758 13.6848 0.9095
5.2349 0.7251 1.4955 1.7028Other Personal Services
(812e00)1.2447 0.1967
0.3283
0.9235
Industry group
Agricu lture, forestry, fi shing
Mining
Utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale trade
Retailtrade
Transportation and warehousing
Information
Finance and insurance
Real estate and rental and leasing
Professional, scientific, services
Management of companies
Administrative and waste management
Educational services
Health care and social assistance
Arts, entertainment, and recreation
Accommodation
Food services and drinking places
Other services
Households
Output/ Employee
$ t 49,351
164,902
460,491
155,394
236,420
222,034
gg,g50
119,927
226,087
306,159
286,070
158,323
272,727
66,047
56,106
109,043
42,345
94,388
60,755
134,534
Earnings/Employee
$ 32,468
34,796
82,474
5 1,953
44,549
64,407
28,030
44,753
54,348
63,406
11,609
61,952
90,909
25,900
1 9,1 52
45,745
14,659
26,786
lg,33l
39,195
7,792
Employment
0.630
2.703
1.190
264.410
10.465
2.413
41.873
2,650
1.881
2.257
9.864
6.535
0.045
3.963
2.478
15.377
2.511
3.206
13328
7.721
3.149
Total 398.650 $146,963 $45,630
Table 3-1 shows an estimated 398.650 employees will be created by construction activities in Phase 1
of the project. Output per new worker for the construction sector would be about $155,394, with
^yer^ge
annual earnings of about $51,953. For all new workers, the corresponding figutes ate
ffl46,963 and $45,630.
Page l8
Table 3-1. Output and Earnings Per New Worker for Construction Expenditures-
Phase I
Industry group
Agriculture, forestry, fi shing
Mining
Utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale trade
Retailtrade
Transportation and warehousing
Information
Finance and insurance
Real estate and rental and leasing
Professional, scientific, services
Management of companies
Administrative and waste management
Educational services
Health care and social assistance
Arts, entertainment, and recreation
Accommodation
Food services and drinking places
Other services
Households
Total
OutpuU Employee
$ 149,351
164,902
460,481
155,394
236,420
222,034
89,950
118,827
226,087
306,159
286,070
159,323
272,727
66,047
56,106
109,043
42,345
94,388
60,755
134,534
146,963 $
EarningslEmployee
s 32,468
34,796
92,474
51,953
44,549
64,407
29,030
44,753
54,349
63,406
I1,609
61,952
90,909
25,800
lg,l52
45,745
14,659
26,786
19,331
39,195
7,792
Employment
0.457
1.960
0.863
191.762
7.590
l.750
30.368
1.922
1.364
1.637
7.154
4.740
0.033
2.874
r.797
I 1.152
1.821
2.325
9.666
5.600
2.284
289.118 S 45,630
Table 3-2 shows an estimate d 289 .1,1 8 employees wiII be cteated by construction activities in Phase 2
of the project. Output and earnings per employee data for construction and total employees will be
the same as in Phase 1.
Page l9
Table 3-2. Output and Earnings Per New Worker for Construction Expenditures-
Phase 2
Industry group
Agriculture, forestry, fi shing
Mining
utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale trade
Retailtrade
Transportation and warehousing
Information
Finance and insurance
Real estate and rental and leasing
Professional, scientific, services
Management of companies
Administrative and waste management
Educational services
Health care and social assistance
Arts, entertainment, and recreation
Accommodation
Food services and drinking places
Other services
Households
Total
Output/ Employee
$ 149,351
164,902
460,481
155,394
236,420
222,034
89,950
llg,g27
226,097
306, I 59
296,070
159,323
272,727
66,047
56,106
109,043
42,345
94,3 gg
60,755
134,534
146,963 $
Earnings/Employee
$ 32,468
34,796
82,474
51,953
44,549
64,407
28,030
44,753
54,348
63,406
I 1,609
61,952
90,909
25,800
1 9,1 52
45,745
14,659
26,786
19,33 1
39,195
7,792
45,630
Employment
0.541
2.323
t.023
227.245
8.994
2.074
35.987
2.278
1.617
L940
8.478
5.617
0.039
3.406
2.130
t3.215
2.158
2.756
I 1.455
6.636
2.706
342.6t6 $
Table 3-3 shows an estimated 342,61,6 employees will be cteated by construction activities in Phase 3
of the project.
Page 110
Table 3-3. Output and Earnings Per New Worker for Construction Expenditures-
Phase 3
Industry group
Agriculture, forestry, fi shing
Mining
utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Transportation and warehousing
Information
Finance and insurance
Real estate and rental and leasing
Professional, scientifi c, services
Management of companies
Administrative and waste management
Educational services
Health care and social assistance
Arts, entertainment, and recreation
Accommodation
Food services and drinking places
Other services
Households
Total
Output/ Employee
$ 149,351
164,902
460,481
155,394
236,420
222,034
gg,g50
1lg,g27
226,097
306, I 59
286,070
159,323
111 7)'7
66,047
56,106
109,043
42,345
94,3 88
60,755
134,534
146,963 S
Earnings/Employee
$ 32,468
34,796
82,474
51,953
44,549
64,407
29,030
44,753
54,349
63,406
1 1,609
61,952
90,909
25,800
lg,l52
45,745
14,658
26,786
19,331
39,195
7,792
45,630
Employment
1.138
4.885
2.151
477.843
18.913
4.360
75.673
4.789
3.400
4.080
17.826
I1.810
0.081
7.t62
4.479
27.789
4.538
5.794
24.086
t3.954
5.691
720.442 $
Table 3-4 shows an estimated720.442 employees will be created by construction activities in Phase 4
of the project.
Page 111
Table 3-4. Output and Earnings Per New Worker for Construction Expenditures-
Phase 4
Operations-Phase 1
Phase 1 of project operations rncludes Food Services, Marina and Fun Center
(Amusement/Recreation), Hotel Suites, and Retail employees. Tables 3-5 through 3-8 show the
economic impact of employees of project's Phase 1 for the 20 major industrial classifications in the
RIMS II input/output model.
Industry group
Agriculture, forestry, fi shing
Mining
Utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale trade
Retailtrade
Transportation and warehousing
Information
Finance and insurance
Real estate and rental and leasing
Professional, scientifi c, services
Management of companies
Administrative and waste management
Educational services
Health care and social assistance
Arts, entertainment, and recreation
Accommodation
Food services and drinking places
Other services
Households
OutpuU Employee
$ 154,519
l57,g95
464,630
155,925
224,935
223,009
90,065
1 02,1 30
186,842
311,159
172,175
llg,l4g
2t7,3gt
71,620
55,062
109,1 l2
37,578
94,142
60,597
144,923
EarningslEmployee
$ 32,070
52,632
83,601
51,975
37,922
63,717
28,041
54,615
48,684
64,379
10,885
49,645
86,957
25,962
17,762
45,701
13,570
27,197
t9,241
40,694
8,3 l0
Employment
0.027
0.001
0.049
0.038
0.152
0.045
0.424
0.144
0.060
0.037
0.398
0,056
0.004
0.088
0.044
0.276
0.075
0.075
13.298
0.132
0.057
Total 15.479 $71,208 $21,222
Page 112
Table 3-5. Output and Earnings Per New Worker for Phase 1-
Food Services Employees
Table 3-5 shows that there will be a total of 75.479 new jobs created from the operation of the food
and beverage portion of the project. Output per new worker for the Food Services and Drinking
Places sector would be about $60,597, with average annual earmngs of about $79,241. Fot all new
workers, the corresponding figures are $7 7,208 and $27,222.
Table 3-6 shows that there will be a total of 47.880 new jobs created ftom the operation of the
maina and fun center portion of the project. Output per new worker for the Arts, Entertainment,
Industry group
Agriculture, forestry, fi shing
Mining
utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale trade
Retailtrade
Transportation and warehousing
Information
Finance and insurance
Real estate and rental and leasing
Professional, scientific, services
Management of companies
Administrative and waste management
Educational services
Health care and social assistance
Arts, entertainment, and recreation
Accommodation
Food services and drinking places
Other services
Households
OutpuU Employee
$ 173,077
166,667
463,902
155,870
1 78,1 56
221,918
89,945
l07,g7g
186,016
3ll,lll
160,434
124,402
225,806
67,394
57,823
109,049
44,401
94,545
60,695
152,290
Earnings/Xmployee
$ 33,654
55,556
84,485
52,632
39,504
63,014
29,093
47,273
47,493
64,815
ll,02g
51,435
96,774
26,048
l8,l4l
45,675
14,3 g I
26,667
lg,25l
41,047
8,310
Employment
0.039
0.003
0.122
0.092
0.241
0.068
0.951
0.1 54
0.142
0.10 1
1,084
0.1 56
0.006
0.330
0.1 65
0.654
42.272
0.1 54
0.698
0.314
0.135
Total 47.880 $53,788 $16,273
Page 113
Table 3-6. Output and Earnings Per New Worker for Phase 1-
Amusement and Recreation Employees
andRecteationsectorwouldbeaboutfi44,40l,,withaverageannualeamingsofabout$14,381. For
all new workers, the coresponding figures are $53,788 and$1.6,273.
Table 3-7 shows that there will be a total of 6.637 new jobs created ftom the operation of the hotel
suites portion of the project. Output per new wotket for the Accommodation sector would be
about $98,941, with average annual earnings of about $20,547. For all new workers, the
corresponding figutes arc $103,777 and $23,577 .
Industry group
Agriculture, forestry, fi shing
Mining
utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale trade
Retailtrade
Transportation and warehousing
Information
Finance and insurance
Real estate and rental and leasing
Professional, scientific, services
Management of companies
Administrative and waste management
Educational services
Health care and social assistance
Arts, entertainment, and recreation
Accommodation
Food services and drinking places
Other services
Households
Total
OutpuU Employee
$ 143,939
166,667
463,964
154,967
193,344
220,930
89,863
99,738
204,679
313,063
172,737
122,475
236,842
71,928
55,172
109,275
42,882
gg,94l
60,586
I 57,509
Earnings/Employee
$ 30,303
55,556
94,459
5I,gg1
41,204
65,891
27,914
57,743
51,170
65,3 l5
10,926
50,505
105,263
25,475
l g,3g l
45,913
15,437
20,547
19,17 4
43,346
7,313
Employment
0.007
0.001
0.044
0.045
0.062
0.013
0.202
0.1 70
0.034
0.422
0.1 90
0.039
0.002
0.099
0.022
0.t32
0.029
s.046
0.372
0.081
0.027
6.637 S 103,777 S 23,577
Page l14
rable 3-7. output ii*.1ffii:f',ff;ffililorker for Phase 1-
Industry group
Agriculture, forestry, fi shing
Mining
utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale trade
Retailtrade
Transportation and warehousing
Information
Finance and insurance
Real estate and rental and leasing
Professional, scientifi c, services
Management of companies
Administrative and waste management
Educational services
Health care and social assistance
Arts, entertainment, and recreation
Accommodation
Food services and drinking places
Other services
Households
Output/ Employee
$ 136,585
166,667
464,602
155,963
171 ,888
223,404
89,991
104,781
182,123
311,448
166,764
113,699
222,222
63,895
56,426
109,1 18
42,789
94,637
60,502
142,290
EarningslEmployee
$ 34,146
84,071
52,752
38,950
63,830
28,000
48,461
48,045
63,973
10,910
47,945
I I l,l l l
25,404
18,809
45,740
14,263
26,814
19,122
39,709
7,246
Employment
0.009
0.001
0.020
0.020
0,0s3
0.017
5.2r9
0.069
0.040
0.027
0.231
0.033
0.001
0.058
0.029
0.151
0.028
0.029
0.144
0.068
0.031
Total 6.276 $96,518 $28,560
Table 3-8 shows that there will be a total of 6.276 new jobs created ftom the operation of the food
and beverage store portion of the project. Output per new worket for the Retail trade sectot would
be about $89,991, with avetage annual earnings of about $28,000. For all new wotkers, the
cortesponding figures are $96,518 and $28,560.
Page 115
Table 3-8. Output and Earnings Per New Worker for Phase l-
Food and Beverage Store Emplovees
Operations-Phase 2
Phase 2 of project opetations includes Hotel Suites, Food Services, \,)Tedding Chapel, Convention
Centet, Spa, Gift Shop, Waste \Water Management, and Recreation employees. Tables 3-9 through
3-16 show the economic impact of employees of project's Phase 2 for the 20 major industrial
classifications in the RIMS II input/output model.
Industry group
Agriculture, forestry, fi shing
Mining
utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale trade
Retailtrade
Transportation and warehousing
Information
Finance and insurance
Real estate and rental and leasing
Professional, scientifi c, services
Management of companies
Administrative and waste management
Educational services
Health care and social assistance
Arts, entertainment, and recreation
Accommodation
Food services and drinking places
Other services
Households
Output/ Employee
$ 143,939
t66,667
463,964
154,867
193,344
220,930
89,863
99,738
204,678
313,063
172,737
122,475
236,842
7l,g2g
55,172
109,275
42,992
98,941
60,586
I 57,509
Earnings/Employee
$ 30,303
55,556
94,459
5 I ,991
41,204
65,891
27,914
57,743
51,170
65,3 15
10,926
50,505
105,263
25,475
I 8,391
45,813
15,437
20,547
19,17 4
43,346
7,313
Employment
0.057
0.008
0.3 87
0.394
0.550
0.112
1.779
1.493
0.298
0.193
1.674
0.345
0.017
0.872
0.1 89
1.160
0.254
44.405
3.271
0.713
0.238
58.410 $103,777 $23,577
Page 116
Table 3-9. Output l1d lT".ings Per New Worker for Phase 2-
Hotel Suites Employees
Total
Table 3-9 shows that there will be a total of 58.410 new jobs cteated from the operation of the hotel
suites pottion of the project. Ouput per new wotket for the Accommodation sector would be
about $98,941, with average annual earnings of about fi20,547. For all new workers, the
corresponding frgues arc fi703,777 and $23,577 .
Table 3-10 shows that there will be a total of 25.005 new jobs created ftom the operation of the
food services portion of the project. Output per new worker fot the Food Services and Drinking
Page 117
Industry group
Agriculture, forestry, fi shing
Mining
utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Transportation and warehousing
Information
Finance and insurance
Real estate and rental and leasing
Professional, scientific, services
Management of companies
Administrative and waste management
Educational services
Health care and social assistance
Arts, entertainment, and recreation
Accommodation
Food services and drinking places
Other services
Households
Total
Output/ Employee
s I 54,519
157,895
464,630
155,925
224,935
223,009
90,065
1 02,1 30
186,842
3l l,l5g
172,175
| 19,149
217,391
71,620
55,062
109,112
37,578
94,142
60,597
144,923
Employment
0.044
0.002
0.079
0.061
0.245
0.072
0.685
0.233
0.097
0.059
0.643
0.090
0.006
0.142
0.012
0.446
0.122
0.122
21.481
0.213
0.092
Earnings/Employee
$ 32,070
52,632
83,601
51 ,97 5
31,922
63,717
28,041
54,615
49,694
64,378
10,885
49,645
86,957
25,962
17,762
45,701
13,570
27,197
19,241
40,694
8,3 l0
25.005 S 71,208 $21,222
Table 3-10. Output and Earnings Per New Worker for Phase 2-
Food Services Employees
Industry group
Agriculture, forestry, fi shing
Mining
utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale trade
Retailtrade
Transportation and warehousing
lnformation
Finance and insurance
Real estate and rental and leasing
Professional, scientifi c, services
Management of companies
Administrative and waste management
Educational services
Health care and social assistance
Arts, entertainment, and recreation
Accommodation
Food services and drinking places
Other services
Households
Total
Output/ Employee
$ 157,895
142,857
461,187
155,797
151,869
223,684
89,888
102,977
208,743
325,688
130,415
l19,24l
272,727
53,270
56, I 80
108,827
49,528
g3,g0g
60,458
319,509
Earnings/Employee
$ 35,088
82,192
50,725
39,720
65,789
27,896
47,466
49,1 80
66,514
10,772
50, I 36
90,909
24,949
18,727
45,345
16,509
26,266
19,015
42,733
8,824
Employment
0.002
0.000
0.007
0.009
0.042
0.007
0.084
0.040
0.030
0.014
0.142
0.024
0.000
0.096
0.009
0.054
0.014
0.017
0.067
L033
0.01I
1.703 s 237,77 4 $37,518
Places sector would be about $60,597, with average annual earnings of about $79,24t. For all new
wotkets, the coresponding figutes are $7 7,208 and $21,,222.
Table 3-11 shows that there will be a total of. 1.703 new jobs created from the operation of the
weddrng chapel portion of the project. Output per new worker for the Other Services sector would
be about $319,509, with avetage annual earnings of about fi42,733. For all new workers, the
corresponding figures are fi237 ,77 4 and $37,518.
Page 118
rabre 3-11' o"nln1#,#ffif:,H};;.X"uer ror Phase 2-
Industry group
Agriculture, forestry, fi shing
Mining
utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale trade
Retailtrade
Transportation and warehousing
Information
Finance and insurance
Real estate and rental and leasing
Professional, scientifi c, services
Management of companies
Administrative and waste management
Educational services
Health care and social assistance
Arts, entertainment, and recreation
Accommodation
Food services and drinking places
Other services
Households
Output/ Employee
s 158,730
I 97,500
466,951
155,531
206,t40
222,222
89,923
107,570
226,601
326,964
81,548
136,465
142,957
87,459
56,452
109,304
43,321
95,339
60,571
154,062
Earnings/Employee
s 31,746
62,500
85,288
51,479
39,474
64,815
28,016
43,925
54,187
67,941
10,593
58,1 66
142,857
28,603
20,161
45,543
14,440
27,542
19,429
42,017
6,309
Employment
0.003
0.001
0.022
0.044
0.01I
0.005
0.1 06
0.012
0.010
0.023
6.217
0.021
0,000
0.087
0.012
0.074
0.013
0.023
0.084
0.034
0.015
Total 6.818 S 85,248 $12,889
Table 3-12 shows that there will be a total of 6.818 new jobs created ftom the operation of the
convention center portion of the project. Output per new worker for the Real Estate and Rental
sector would be about $81,548, with average annual earnings of about $10,593. For all new workers,
the corresponding figures ate $85,248 and $12,889.
Page 119
Table 3-12. Output and Earnings Per New Worker for Phase 2-
Convention Center Emnlovees
Industry group
Agriculture, forestry, fi shing
Mining
Utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Transportation and warehousing
Information
Finance and insurance
Real estate and rental and leasing
Professional, scientific, services
Management of companies
Administrative and waste management
Educational services
Health care and social assistance
Arts, entertainment, and recreation
Accommodation
Food services and drinking places
Other services
Households
Total
OutpuU Employee
$ 147,287
142,957
459,954
155,702
199,030
222,974
89,951
106,027
tg6,g37
312,500
163,077
I lg,lg6
250,000
73,615
55,300
109,027
42,151
94,704
60,599
98,577
Employment
0.026
0.003
0.n2
0.094
0.208
0.070
t.343
0.1 84
0.1 82
0.t l8
L315
0.141
0.00s
0.281
0.1 34
0.820
0.141
0.181
0.836
2t.7tt
0.169
Earnings/Employee
s 3 1,008
71,429
83,942
52,632
40,394
64,516
27,947
47,991
48,423
64,236
10,924
47,965
83,333
27,697
19,433
45,761
14,535
27,211
19,136
36,456
7,282
28.075 $103,384 $34,768
Table 3-13 shows that there willbe atotalof 28.075 new jobs cteated from the operation of the spa
portion of the project. Output per new worker for the Other Services sector would be about
$98,577, with avetage annual earnings of about $36,456. For all new workets, the corresponding
figures are $103,384 andfi34,768.
Page 120
Table 3-13. Output and Earnings Per New Worker for Phase 2-
Spa Emrlloyees
Industry group
Agriculture, forestry, fi shing
Mining
utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Transportation and warehousing
Information
Finance and insurance
Real estate and rental and leasing
Professional, scientific, services
Management of companies
Administrative and waste management
Educational services
Health care and social assistance
Arts, entertainment, and recreation
Accommodation
Food services and drinking places
Other services
Households
Output/ Employee
$ 136,5 85
166,667
464,602
155,963
I 7l ,888
223,404
g9,gg1
104,781
182,123
311,448
166,764
113,699
))') )))
63,895
56,426
109,1 l8
42,789
94,637
60,502
142,290
Earnings/Xmployee
$ 34,146
84,071
52,752
38,950
63,830
28,000
48,461
48,045
63,973
10,910
47,945
lll,lll
25,404
18,809
45,740
14,263
26,814
19,122
39,709
7,246
Employment
0.006
0.000
0.012
0.012
0.032
0.010
3.132
0.041
0.024
0.016
0.1 39
0.020
0.000
0.035
0.017
0.090
0.017
0,017
0.086
0.041
0.0r9
Total 3.766 $96,518 $28,560
Table 3-14 shows that there will be a total of 3.766 new jobs created from the operation of the gift
shop poruon of the project. Output per new wotker for the Retail trade sector would be about
$89,991, with average annual earnings of about $28,000. For all new workers, the cottesponding
figures are $96,518 and $28,560.
P age l2l
rabre 3-r4' output tlrffiilTlti:il:x worker ror Phase 2-
Industry group
Agriculture, forestry, fi shing
Mining
Utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale trade
Retailtrade
Transportation and warehousing
Information
Finance and insurance
Real estate and rental and leasing
Professional, scientific, services
Management of companies
Administrative and waste management
Educational services
Health care and social assistance
Arts, entertainment, and recreation
Accommodation
Food services and drinking places
Other services
Households
Total
Output/ Employee
$ 173,077
166,667
463,902
I 55,970
l7g,l56
221,9t8
89,945
l07,g7g
186,016
3ll,lll
t60,434
124,402
225,906
67,384
5',1,823
109,049
44,401
94,545
60,695
152,290
Employment
0.010
0.001
0.032
0.024
0,063
0.0r8
0.249
0.040
0.037
0.026
0.284
0.041
0.002
0.086
0.043
0. l7l
I1.071
0.040
0.1 83
0.082
0.035
Earnings/Employee
$ 33,654
55,556
84,485
52,632
39,504
63,014
29,093
47,273
47,493
64,815
11,029
51,435
96,774
26,048
l8,l4l
45,675
14,3 g I
26,667
19,251
41,047
8,310
12.s40 $53,788 $16,273
Table 3-15 shows that there will be a total of 12.540 new jobs created from the operation of the
recreation portion of the project. Output per new wotker for the Arts, Entertainment, and
Recreation sector would be about $44,401,, with average annual earnings of about $14,381. For all
new workers, the corresponding figures are $53,788 and$16,273.
P age 122
Table 3-15. Output and Earnings Per New Worker for Phase 2-
Recreation Employees
Industry group
Agriculture, forestry, fi shing
Mining
utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale trade
Retailtrade
Transportation and warehousing
Information
Finance and insurance
Real estate and rental and leasing
Professional, scientifi c, services
Management of companies
Administrative and waste management
Educational services
Health care and social assistance
Arts, entertainment, and recreation
Accommodation
Food services and drinking places
Other services
Households
Output/ Bmployee
$ 144,444
173,469
238,964
155,347
216,514
))) ))")
89,986
107,200
240,854
307,255
252,166
139,423
200,000
71,809
56,433
I 09,1 83
43, I 03
95, I 56
60,730
I 40,5 l4
Earnings/Employee
$ 33,333
35,714
52,914
51,991
42,202
65,134
27,966
51,200
57,927
64,011
11,265
53,285
26,596
18,059
45,553
15,086
27,682
19,286
39,230
7,042
Employment
0.004
0.009
2.01I
0.305
0.026
0.012
0.211
0.030
0,016
0.033
0.1l0
0.1 19
0.000
0.036
0.021
0.132
0.022
0.027
0.1l6
0.067
0.027
Total 3.333 $t97,tt6 $46,832
Table 3-16 shows that there will be a total of 3.333 new jobs created ftom the operation of the waste
watef portion of the project. Output pef new worker for the Utilities sector would be about
$238,964, with average annual eamings of about $52,974. For all newwotkets, the corresponding
figures arc ff797,776 and fi46,832.
P age 123
rable 3-16. output an3.3;;il:;H,Hlilorker for Phase 2-
Operations-Phase 3
Phase 3 of project opetations includes Golf (Amusements/Recreation), Food Services, and !7aste
lWater employees. Tables 3-17 through 3-19 show the economic impact of employees of project's
Phase 3 for the 20 malor industrial classifications in the RIMS II input/output model.
Industry group
Agriculture, forestry, fi shing
Mining
utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale trade
Retailtrade
Transportation and warehousing
Information
Finance and insurance
Real estate and rental and leasing
Professional, scientific, services
Management of companies
Administrative and waste management
Educational services
Health care and social assistance
Arts, entertainment, and recreation
Accommodation
Food services and drinking places
Other services
Households
Total
Output/ Employee
$ 173,077
166,667
463,902
155,970
179,156
22l,gtg
89,945
l07,g7g
186,016
3ll,lll
160,434
124,402
225,906
67,384
57,823
109,049
44,401
94,545
60,695
152,290
Earnings/Employee
$ 33,6s4
55,556
84,485
52,632
39,504
63,014
29,093
47,273
47,493
64,815
11,029
51,435
96,774
26,048
l8,l4l
45,675
14,381
26,667
19,251
41,047
8,310
Employment
0.034
0.003
0.1 07
0.081
0.212
0.060
0.838
0.1 36
0.125
0.089
0.955
0.1 38
0.005
0.291
0.145
0.576
37.239
0.136
0.615
0.277
0.1l9
42.180 $53,788 $16,273
P age 124
Table 3-17. Output und.Illyngs,Per New Worker for Phase 3-
Golf Employees
Industry group
Agriculture, forestry, fi shing
Mining
utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale trade
Retailtrade
Transportation and warehousing
Information
Finance and insurance
Real estate and rental and leasing
Professional, scientific, services
Management of companies
Administrative and waste management
Educational services
Health care and social assistance
Arts, entertainment, and recreation
Accommodation
Food services and drinking places
Other services
Households
Total
Output/ Employee
$ 154,519
157,895
464,630
155,925
224,935
223,009
90,065
102,130
t86,842
3 I 1,159
172,175
119,149
2l7,3gl
71,620
55,062
l09,l12
37,579
94,142
60,597
144,823
Earnings/Employee
$ 32,070
52,632
83,601
51 ,97 5
71 q)')
63,717
28,041
54,615
48,684
64,378
l0,gg5
49,645
96,957
25,962
17,762
45,701
13,570
27,197
19,241
40,694
8,3 l0
Employment
0.010
0.001
0.019
0.015
0.058
0.017
0.1 63
0.055
0.023
0.014
0.1 53
0.021
0.001
0.034
0.017
0.106
0.029
0.029
5.1 15
0.051
0.022
5.954 $71,208 $2L,222
Table 3-17 shows that there will be a total of 42.180 new jobs created from the opetation of the golf
portion of the project. Output per new worker for the Arts, Entettainment, and Recreation sector
would be about fi44,407, with avetage annual earnings of about $14,381. For all new workers, the
corresponding frgutes are $ 53,7 88 and $1, 6,27 3.
Table 3-18 shows that there will be a total of 5.954 new jobs created from the operation of the food
services portion of the project. Output per new worker for the Food Services and Drinking Places
Page 125
Table 3-18. Output and Earnings Per New Worker for Phase 3-
Food Services Emnlovees
Industry group
Agriculture, forestry, fi shing
Mining
utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Transportation and warehousing
Information
Finance and insurance
Real estate and rental and leasing
Professional, scientific, services
Management of companies
Administrative and waste management
Educational services
Health care and social assistance
Arts, entertainment, and recreation
Accommodation
Food services and drinking places
Other services
Households
Output/ Employee
$ 144,444
173,469
238,964
t55,347
216,514
11) 11''
-LLrL--
89,986
107,200
240,954
307,255
252,166
139,423
200,000
71,809
56,433
109,1 83
43, I 03
95,156
60,730
140,514
EarningslEmployee
s 33,333
35,774
52,914
51,991
42,202
65,134
27,966
51,200
57,927
64,01I
11,265
53,285
Employment
0.009
0.019
4.022
0.609
0.052
0.025
0,422
0.059
0.031
0.067
0.219
0.237
0.000
0.072
0.042
0.263
0.044
0.055
0.232
0.1 33
0.054
26,596
18,059
45,553
15,086
27,682
19,286
39,230
7,042
Total 6.666 $t97,tt6 $46,832
sector would be about $60,597, with average annual earnings of about $79,241.. For all new workers,
the corresponding figures are fi71.,208 and fi21,222.
Table 3-19 shows that there will be a total of 6.666 new jobs created from the operation of the waste
water portion of the project. Output per new worker for the Utilities sector would be about
fi238,964, with average annual earnings of about fi52,974. For all new workers, the coresponding
figures are $197,176 and$46,832.
P age 126
Table 3-19. Output and Earnings Per New Worker for Phase 3-
Waste Water Employees
Operations-Phase 4
Phase 4 of project operations includes Waste $7ater employees. Table 3-20 shows the economic
impact of employees of project's Phase 4 for the 20 malor industrial classifications in the RIMS II
input/output model.
Table 3-20 shows that there will be a total of 8.333 new jobs created from the operation of the waste
water portion of the project. Output per new wotker for the Utilities sector would be about
fi238,964, with average annual earnings of about $52,914. For all new workets, the conesponding
figures arc $797,776 and $46,832.
Industry group
Agriculture, forestry, fi shing
Mining
utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Transportation and warehousing
Information
Finance and insurance
Real estate and rental and leasing
Professional, scientific, services
Management of companies
Administrative and waste management
Educational services
Health care and social assistance
Arts, entertainment, and recreation
Accommodation
Food services and drinking places
Other services
Households
Output/ Employee
$ 144,444
113,469
238,964
155,347
216,514
))) )))
89,986
107,200
240,954
307,255
252,166
139,423
200,000
71,809
56,433
1 09,1 83
43,103
95,156
60,730
140,514
Earnings/Xmployee
s 33,333
35,714
52,914
5 I ,991
42,202
65,134
27,966
51,200
57,927
64,01 I
11,265
53,285
26,596
18,059
45,553
15,086
27,682
19,286
39,230
7,042
Employment
0.01I
0.023
5,028
0.761
0.065
0,031
0.s27
0.074
0.039
0.084
0.274
0.297
0.001
0.089
0.053
0329
0.055
0.069
0.290
0.167
0.068
Total 8.333 $197,116 $46,832
P age 127
Table 3-20. Output and Earnings Per New Worker for Phase 4-
Waste Water Employees
4. Conclusion
The purpose of the analysis is to estimate the number of direct and indirect jobs associated with the
MPR project and determrne aver^ge wages cortesponding to these jobs. Given these estimates, as
summadzed above, the analysis can determine the number of jobs associated with the project that
will earn
^n^vera.ge
wage of 80o/o or less of the Brinnon ^re average median income (AM!. The
Brinnon area median income is estimated at $42,6792 and 80o/o of this AMI amount is estimated at
fi34,743.
Construction
An estimated 342 construction-related jobs will have average earnings of 80% or less of the
Brinnon area AMI. This includes direct and indrect jobs associated with the MPR ptoject
construction and is summarized below, by phase, with avetage wages for each industry group.
Consuuction: Total Direct and Inditect obs at ot Below the Brinnon Area AMI
Onerations
-
An estimated 223 operations-related iobs will have average earnings of B0o/o or less of the Bdnnon
area AML This includes direct and indirect jobs associated with the MPR ptoject operation and is
summarized below, by phase, with average wages for each industry group.
2 U.S. Census Bureau, 2008-2012 American Community Survey. "Selected Economic Characteristics." Data for
Brinnon, Washington.
Retail trade
Real estate and rental and leasing
Administrative and waste
management
Educational services
Arts, entertainment, and
recreation
Accommodation
Food services and drinking
$ 32,468
28,030
I 1,609
25,800
1 8,1 52
14,658
26,786
l g,33l
0.630
41.873
9.864
3.963
2.478
2.5n
3,206
13.328
0.457
30.368
7.154
2.874
1.797
L821
2,325
9.666
0.541
35.987
8.478
3.406
2.130
2.158
2.756
I 1.455
1.13 8
75.673
t7.826
7.162
4.479
4.538
5.794
24.086
2.766
I 83.901
43.322
17.404
10.884
l 1.028
Agriculture, forestry, fi shing
14.081
s8.s34
Page 128
# of Employees with Earnings Below Brinnon Area AMI
Industry group Earnings/
Employee Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Total
77.853 56.462 66.910 140.696 34t.921TOTAL
tions: Total Direct and Indirect obs at or Below the Brinnon Atea AMI
Agriculture, forestry, fi shing
Retail trade
Real estate and rental and leasing
Administrative and waste management
Educational services
Arts, entertainment, and recreation
Accommodation
Food services and drinking places
Phase I Total
0.082 $
6.797
L903
0.s75
0.259
42.404
5.304
14.512
71.836
32,917
28,012
10,974
25,870
18,171
14,380
20,853
19,239
Agriculture, forestry, fi shing
Retail trade
Real estate and rental and leasing
Administrative and waste management
Educational services
Arts, entertainment, and recreation
Accommodation
Food services and drinking places
Phase 2 Total
0.1 52
7.589
10.523
t.636
0.497
1l,654
44.833
26.124
103.008
31,466
27,975
10,730
26,088
18,338
14,401
20,610
19,229
$
Agriculture, forestry, fi shing
Retail trade
Real estate and rental and leasing
Administrative and waste management
Educational services
Arts, entertainment, and recreation
Accommodation
Food services and drinking places
Phase 3 Total
Agriculture, forestry, fi shing
Retail trade
Real estate and rental and leasing
Administrative and waste management
Educational services
Arts, entertainment, and recreation
Accommodation
Food services and drinking places
Phase 4 Total
$
$
0.053
1.423
1.327
0.396
0.204
37.312
0.220
5.962
46.8g7
33,293
28,044
I 1,05 I
26,139
18,092
14,381
26,991
19,244
0.01I
0.527
0.274
0.089
0.0s3
0.055
0.069
0.290
1.368
33,333
27,966
11,265
26,596
18,059
15,086
27,682
19,286
P age 129
Earnings/
f,mployee# of EmployeesIndu$try,:gf$up
Phase 1-Maritime Village Center & Infrastructure
Course
Phase 3-Golf Course Center & Terraces
Phase 4-Seaview Villas & Alpine Vistas
Total 223.t09
5. About RIMS II Final Demand Methodology
The following material has been condensed from the RIMS II User Handbook
Introduction and General Comments
Effecuve planning for public- and private-sector pro;ects and programs at the State and local levels
requires a systematic analysis of the economic impacts of these projects and ptogtams on affected
regions. In turn, systematic analysis of economic impacts must account for the inter-industry
relationships within regions because these relationships largely determrne how regional economies
are likely to respond to project and program changes. Thus, regional input-output (I-O) multipliers,
which account for inter-industry relationships within tegions, are useful tools for conducting
regional economic impact analysis.
In the 1970s, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) developed a method for estimating regional
I-O multipliers known as RIMS (X.egional Industrial Multiplier System), which was based on the
work of Garnick and Drake. In the 1980s, BEA completed an enhancement of RIMS, known as
RIMS II (R.egional Input-Output Modehng System), and published a handbook for RIMS II users.
In "1992, BEA published a second edition of the handbook in which the multipliers were based on
more recent data and improved methodology. In 7997, BEA published a thitd edition of the
handbook that provides more detail on the use of the multipliers and the data sources and methods
for estimating them.
RIMS II is based on an accounting framework called an I-O table. Fot each industry, an I-O table
shows the industrial distribution of inputs purchased and outputs sold. A typical I-O table in RIMS
II is derived mainly from rwo data soutces: BEA's national I-O table, which shows the input and
output structure of neatly 500 U.S. industries, and BEA's tegional economic accounts, which are
used to adjust the national I-O table to show a region's industrial structure and trading patterns.
Using RIMS II for impact analysis has several advantages. RIMS II mulapliers can be estimated for
any region composed of one or more counties and for any industry, ot group of industdes, in the
national I-O table. The accessibility of the main data sources for RIMS II keeps the cost of
estimating regional multipliers relauvely low. Empirical tests show that estimates based on telatively
expensive surveys and RIMS Il-based estimates are similar in magnitude.
BEA's RIMS multipliers can be a cost-effective way for analysts to estimate the economic impacts of
changes in a tegional economy. However, it is important to keep in mind that, like all economic
impact models, RIMS provides approximate order-of-magnitude estimates of impacts. RIMS
multipliets ate best suited fot estimating the impacts of small changes on a regional economy. For
some applications, users may want to supplement RIMS estimates with information they gather
ftom the region undergoing the potential change. To use the multipliets for impact analysis
effectively, users must provide geographically and industrially detailed information on the initial
changes in output, earnings, or employment that are associated with the proiect or program under
study. The multipliers can then be used to estimate the total impact of the project or program on
regional output, eatnings, and employment.
Page 130
RIMS II is widely used in both the public and pdvate sector. In the public sectot, for example, the
Department of Defense uses RIMS II to estimate the regional impacts of military base closings.
State transpottation departments use RIMS II to estimate the regional impacts of airport
construction and expansion. In the private-sectot, analysts and consultants use RIMS II to estimate
the regronal impacts of a vaiety of projects, such as the development of shopping malls and sports
stadiums.
RIMS II Methodology
RIMS II uses BEA's benchmark and annual I-O tables for the nation. Since a paticular region may
not contain all the industries found at the national level, some direct input requirements cannot be
supplied by that tegion's industries. Input requirements that are not produced in a study region are
identified using BEA's regional economic accounts.
The RIMS II method for estimaung tegional I-O multipliers can be viewed as a three-step process.
In the first step, the producer portion of the national I-O table is made region-speciFrc by using six-
digrt NAICS location quotients GaO. The LQs estimate the extent to which input requirements are
supplied by fltms within the region. RIMS II uses LQs based on two types of data: BEA's personal
income data (by place of residence) are used to calculate LQs rn the service industries; and BEA's
wage-and-salary data (by place of work) are used to calculate LQs in the non-service industries.
In the second step, the household row and the household column from the national I-O table are
made region-specific. The household row coefficients, which are derived from the value-added row
of the national I-O table, ate adjusted to reflect tegional earnings leakages tesulting ftom individuals
working in the region but residing outside the region. The household column coefficients, which are
based on the personal consumption expenditure column of the national I-O table, are adiusted to
account for regional consumpuon leakages stemming ftom personal taxes and savings. In the last
step, the Leontief inversion approach is used to estimate multipliers. This inversion approach
produces output, earnings, and employment multipliers, which can be used to trace the impacts of
changes in final demand on and indirecdy affected industries.
Accuracy of RIMS II
Empirical evidence suggests that RIMS II commonly yields multiphers that are not substantially
different in magnitude from those generated by regional I-O models based on relatively expensive
surveys. For example, a comparison of 224 rndustry-specific multipliers from survey-based tables for
Colorado, lTashington, and West Virginia indrcates that the RIMS II aver^ge multipliers
ovetestimate the average multipliers from the survey-based tables by approximately 5 percent. For
the majodty of individual industry-specific multipliers within these states, the drfference between
RIMS II and suwey-based multipliers is less than 10 percent. In addruon, RIMS II and survey
multipliers show statistically sirnilar distributions of affected industries.
Advantages of RIMS II
There are numerous advantages to using RIMS IL First, the accessibility of the main data sources
makes it possible to estimate tegional multipliers without conducting relatively expensive suryeys.
Second, the level of industrial detail used rn RIMS II helps avoid aggregation errors, which often
occur when industries are combined. Third, RIMS II multipliers can be compared actoss ateas
because they are based on a consistent set of estimating procedures nationwide. Fourth, RIMS II
Page 131
multipliers ate updated to reflect the most recent local-area wage-and-s alary and personal income
datz.
Overview of Different Multipliets
RIMS II ptovides users with five t,?es of multipliers: final demand multipliers for output, for
earnings, and for employment; and direct-effect multipliers for earnings and fot employment. These
multipliers measure the economic impact of a change in final demand, in eamings, or in employment
on a region's economy.
The final demand multipliers for output are the basic mulupliers ftom which all other RIMS II
multipliets are derived. In this table, each column entry indicates the change in ouput in each row
industry that results from a $1 change in final demand in the column industry. The impact on each
row industry is calculated by multiply-g th. final demand change in the column industry by the
multipliet for each row. The total impact on regional output is calculated by multiplying the final
demand change in the column industry by the sum of all the mulupliers for each row except the
household row.
RIMS II provides two tfpes of multipliers for estrmatlng the impacts of changes on earnings: final
demand multipliers and direct effect multipliers. These multipliers are derived from the table of
final demand output multipliers.
The final demand multipliers for earnings can be used if data on final demand changes are avatTable.
In the Frnal demand earnings multiplier table, each column entry indicates the change in earnings in
each row industry that results from a $1 change in final demand in the column industry. The impact
on each row industry is calculated by multiplying the final demand change in the column industry by
the multipliers for each row. The total impact on regional earnings is calculated by multiplying the
final demand change rn the column indusry by the sum of the multipliets fot each tow.
Employment Multipliers
RIMS II provides two types of multipliers for estimating the impacts of changes on employment:
final demand multipliers and direct effect multipliers. These multipliers are dedved from the table
of final demand output multipliers.
The final demand multipliets for employment can be used if the data on final demand changes are
available. In the final demand employment multipliet table, each column entry indicates the change
in employment in each row industry that tesults from a $1 million change in frnal demand in the
column industry. The impact on each row industry is calculated by multiplying the final demand
change in the column industry by the multipher for each row. The total impact on regional
employment is calculated by multiplying the final demand change in the column industry by the sum
of the multipliers for each row.
The direct effect multipliers for employment can be used if the data on the initial changes in
employment by industry are ava:lable, In the direct effect employment multiplier table, each entry
indicates the total change in employment in the region that results from a change of one iob in the
row industry. The total impact on regional employment is calculated by multiplying the initial
change in employment in the row industry by the multiplier for the row.
Page 132
Choosing a Multiplier
The choice of multiplier for estimating the impact of a ptoject on output, earnings, and employment
depends on the availability of estimates of the initial changes in frnal demand, earnings, and
employment. If the estimates of the initial changes in all thtee measures are avatlable, the RIMS II
user can select any of the RIMS II multipliers. In theory, all the rmpact estimates should be
consistent. If the available estimates are limited to initial changes in final demand, the user can select
a final demand multiplier for impact estimation. If the available estimates are limited to initial
changes in earnings or employment, the user can select a direct effect multrplier.
The EB-5 regulations provide that "jobs created indi"ecdy" by a regional center- affiliated business
may be credited to foreign investors who made a qualifying investment in the business. To show
this job cteadon, "reasonable" methodologies may be used. 8 CFRS204.6(-X7). The RIMS II
input/output model has been tecognized by the USCIS as an acceptable methodology for showing
job cteauon resulting from a regional centet- affiliated investment project.
Page 133
Michelle Farfan
From:
Sent:
IO:
Cc:
Subject:
Attachments:
David W. Joh nson < djohnson@co jefferson.wa.us >
Monday, October 20,20L41:05 PM
JT Cooke
peckassoc@comcast,neU David W. Johnson; Schipanski, Rich; Hollinger, Kristy; Garth
Mann
RE: Pleasant Harbor MPR
image00l-jpg
JT,
We are getting ready to release the Draft SEIS and need to final Draft of the DA & DRs. Did you do anything subsequent
to this regarding incorporating our proposed changes?
Thanks !
From: JT Cooke [mailto:jt@houlihan-law.com]
Sent:Tuesday, May 20,2014 4:50 PM
To: David W. Johnson
Cc: peckassoc@comcast.net
Subject: RE: Pleasant Harbor MPR
Thanks, David. I will take a look and get back to you.
JT
[Signature JT]
NOTICE:This communication may contain privileged or other confidential information. lf you have received it in error,
please advise the sender by reply email and immediately delete the message and any attachments without copying or
disclosing the contents. Thank you.
From : David W. Joh nson Imailto:djohnson @co.jefferson.wa. us]
Sent: Tuesday, May 20,2O!4 4:40 PM
To: JT Cooke
Cc: peckassoc@comcast.net<mailto:peckassoc@comcast.net>; David W. Johnson
Subject: RE: Pleasant Harbor MPR
JT,
Here are our proposed revisions and comments, Please review and provide a revised draft.
Thanks!
From: JT Cooke Imailto:jt@houlihan-law.com]
Sent: Friday, April L1,20t4 8:50 AM
To: David W. Johnson
Subject: Pleasant Harbor MPR
I
Hi David-
Thanks for your patience-it's been a crazy week. Attached is the draft zoning ordinance and development agreement for
the Pleasant Harbor MPR. As I mentioned, we are still finalizing other documents (ie water and sewer plans) which may
result in modifications of these documents. That said, I think we are sufficiently far enough along that it makes sense to
get the County's input at this stage.
Please let me know if you have any questions.
Thanks,
JT
[Signature JT]
NOTICE:This communication may contain privileged or other confidential information. lf you have received it in error,
please advise the sender by reply email and immediately delete the message and any attachments without copying or
disclosing the contents, Thank you,
2