Loading...
HomeMy WebLinkAbout048Michelle Farfan From: Sent: To: Cc: Subject: Attachments: Wright Johnson Economic Report attached From: JT Cooke Imailto:jt@houlihan-law.com] Sent: Friday, November 07 ,201.4 3:02 PM To: David W. Johnson Subject: RE: Pleasant Harbor MPR Works for me. l'll send an invite out David W. Johnson < djohnson@cojefferson.wa.us > Monday, November 10,20L411:02 AM JT Cooke David W. J o h nson (dwjoh nson @ co jefferson.wa.us) Economic Analysis on Earnings Wright Johnson Report.pdf ffi H*uuHAr.* r-Anr 3$t!? fivanston &vqrlrl.rs N" $u*t* f; r Senttle. Sll\ 9$1m$ JSHI* Y, {J.T"I COOKfi ATTSftNHY 206"S4?"'!S7S Brn*cr ?0S.S4?JgS& FAx ?53"72?"$2$? Msslr* ww ur,h u u [i tr *n - la.w. conn NOTICE:This communication may contain privileged or other confidential information. lf you have received it in error, please advise the sender by reply email and immediately delete the message and any attachments without copying or disclosing the contents. Thank you. From: David W. Johnson Imailto:diohnson@cojefferson.wa.us] Sent: Friday, November 07,2074 2:27 PM To: JT Cooke Subject: RE: Pleasant Harbor MPR Yes, let's talk. How about 10am? From: JT Cooke Imailto:it@houlihan-law.com] Sent: Friday, November 07,2Ot4 2:16 PM To: David W. Johnson Cc: peckassoc@comcast.net;'Garth Mann' Subject: RE: Pleasant Harbor MPR 1 Hi David- Please see the attached revisions in response to your comments in addition to some internal revisions (all in redline). Are you available Monday for a quick call to walk through the County comments and outstanding items that still need to be addressed. Thanks, JT Eil HouLTHAN LA\n 3401 Ev*nston Avennre N, sr*it* C t Senttle, WA 98103 JOHI{ ?. il"T.} COoKE ATTORNEY 206.547.107S t06.s47.19S* 163.72r.Sa67 DIRf CT FAX MOSILE rruw"houlihan-tqw,com NOTICE: This communication may contain privileged or other confidential information. lf you have received it in error, please advise the sender by reply email and immediately delete the message and any attachments without copying or disclosing the contents. Thank you. From: David W. Johnson Imailto:djohnson@co.jefferson.wa.us] Sent: Wednesday, November 05, 2074 72:52 PM To: JT Cooke; 'Gafth Mann' Cc: David W. Johnson; peckassoc@comcast.net Subject: FW: Pleasant Harbor MPR JT, Newer versions with David Alvarez's comments. We need your response asap. Thanks! From: David W. Johnson Sent: Wednesday, October 29,2014 2:15 PM To: JT Cooke Cc: peckassoc@comcast.neU 'Schipanski, Rich'; 'Hollinger, Kristy'; 'Garth Mann'; David W. Johnson; David Alvarez Subject: RE: Pleasant Harbor MPR JT, Please review the attached, make additions/corrections and return Thanksl From: JT Cooke Imailto:it@houlihan-law.com] Sent: Friday, October 24,2014 2:01 PM To: David W. Johnson Cc: peckassoc@comcast.neu 'Schipanski, Rich'; 'Hollinger, Kristy'; 'Garth Mann' Subject: RE: Pleasant Harbor MPR 2 Hi David- Attached please find the revised zoning code and development agreement which address your comments and changes. Please let me know if you have any questions. Thanks, JT Eil HouLrHAr.r LAw 340tr Ev*nston Aven$e N, Suite C r Seattle" 1#A 98103 .l0Hl'l T. tJ;T,l CCIOXE A.TTORNEY 2ofi.54?.107S 206"547"r988 253.722.S267 NIRf CT FAX MOgILE wwy,hpulihaa-lsw,com NOTICE: This communication may contain privileged or other confidential information. lf you have received it in error, please advise the sender by reply email and immediately delete the message and any attachments without copying or disclosing the contents. Thank you. From: David W. Johnson Imailto:djohnson@co.iefferson.wa.us] Sent: Monday, October 20,2014 1:05 PM To: JT Cooke Cc: peckassoc@comcast.neU David W. Johnson; Schipanski, Rich; Hollinger, Kristy; Garth Mann Subject: RE: Pleasant Harbor MPR JT We are getting ready to release the Draft SEIS and need to final Draft of the DA & DRs. Did you do anything subsequent to this regarding incorporating our proposed changes? Thanks! From: JT Cooke [mailto:it@houlihan-law.com] Sent: Tuesday, May 20,2074 4:50 PM To: David W. Johnson Cc: peckassoc@comcast. net Subject: RE: Pleasant Harbor MPR Thanks, David. I will take a look and get back to you JT 3 Efr HoULIHAN LAW 34St Hvxnsion Avenue N, Suite C r $eattle, WA 981$3 JOHI'I T. {J.T"l CffiKE ATTOfth}ffiY ?06.547"1075 nrrucr ?06.$47'*g&0 p&x 253.7?2-826? rdo$rrf wwv.houllhan-tary,com NOTICE: This communication may contain privileged or other confidential information. lf you have received it in error, please advise the sender by reply email and immediately delete the message and any attachments without copying or disclosing the contents. Thank you. From: David W. Johnson [mailto:djohnson@co.jefferson.wa.us] Sent: Tuesday, May 20, 2074 4:40 PM To: JT Cooke Cc: oeckassoc@comcast.neU David W. Johnson Subject: RE: Pleasant Harbor MPR IT, Here are our proposed revisions and comments. Please review and provide a revised draft. Thanks! From : JT Cooke [mailto:jt@houlihan-law.com] Sent: Friday, April 11, 2014 B:50 AM To: David W. Johnson Subject: Pleasant Harbor MPR Hi David- Thanks for your patience-it's been a ctazy week. Attached is the draft zoning ordinance and development agreement for the Pleasant Harbor MPR. As I mentioned, we are still finalizing other documents (ie water and sewer plans) which may result in modifications of these documents. That said, I think we are sufficiently far enough along that it makes sense to get the County's input at this stage. Please let me know if you have any questions. Thanks, JT 4 Efi HoumHAN rAW 34O3 *vanston Avenue N, Suite C " Seatile, lirA 98103 JOHil T. #,T"} COOKE ATTSffiNUY ?06.547"1075 nrnrcr 20S.$47"1958 rAx ?53.722.826? Monrrn rwrr"houllhan*les.som NOTICE: This communication may contain privileged or other confidential information. lf you have received it in error, please advise the sender by reply email and immediately delete the message and any attachments without copying or disclosing the contents. Thank you. No virus found in this message. Checked by AVG - www.avg.com Version: 2014.0.4765 / Virus Database: 404018423 - Release Date: 10120114 5 &maf,lllh -{ r:t rlrilw w,!(? .-.-. ., ,.r 1 ll t \R,,[j,(" i!ii ''.' \], OC,T t 5 20!t ,\t liiffil\it t'il\\ilifi fltil An Economic Analpis of Earnings Ptlsuant to Jeffenon CountyBoarrd of C-ounry C-ommissioners' Condition 63gfor the Pleasant [:Iarbor]vlaster Planned Resort (IvPR) By Vright Johnson, LLC wRrcHT JOHNSON professional authors and andlysts October 2014 205 Worh Avenue, Suite 201, Palm Beach, FL 33480 Telephone: (561) 252-6099 Email info6twrightjohnsonllc.com L. Introduction Wright Johnson, LLC, (V{J") has been retained to perform an economic assessment of eamings of the Pleasant Flarbor lvlaster Planned Reson (IvPR) employees in conformiry with the Jefferson C.ounty Board of County Co mmiss ione rs' condition 63 g, whic h states : "The developer shall commission a snrdy of the number of jobs expected to be created as a direct or indircct resuh of the MPR that eam 80o/o or less of the Brinnon area average median income (AM). The developer shall provide affordable housing (e.g., no nrort than 30o/o of household income) for the Brinnon MPR wodren roughly proportional to the number of jobs created that eam 80o/o or less of the Brinnon area Alvll. The developer may satisfy this condition through dedication of land, payment of in lieu fee, or onsite housing development." To accomplish this, the analysis estimates the number of direct and indirect jobs projecq as well as average wages associated with these jobs. The anal1ris utilizes to estimate these jobs and wages as discussed below. 2. Methods & fusumptions associated wfuh the the RIIUIS II model The anatpis consi&rs the impacts of the construction and opemtion of the MPRproject" which will openrts within the following industry clusten :t Residential Building C,onstnrction - NAICS code 2167: This indrstrycornprises esablishrnents primarily responsible for the construction or remodeling and renovation of single-famity and muldfamily residential buildings. Included in this industry arc residential housing general conu?ctorr (i.e., new construction, remodeling, or renovating existing residential structures), for-sale builden and remodelen of residential structures, residential project construction nunagement firms, and residential des ign-build firns. Non-Residential Building C-onstuction - NAICS code 2362: This indr:stry comprises establishments primarily responsible for the construction (including new worlg additiors, alterations, maintenance, and rcpalrs) of commercial and instindonal buildings and related stnrctures, such as shdiums, grain elevators, and indoor swimming facilities. This indutry inctudes establishments responsible for the on-site assembly of modular or prefabricated commercial and institutional buildingp. Included in this industry are commercial and institutional building general contractolr, commercial and institutional building for-sale builders, commercial and institutional building design- build firms, and commercial and instirutional building project construction rururgement fims. Util ty System C-onstnrction - NAICS code 2371c This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in the construction of water and sewer lines, mains, pumping stations, treatment plants, and storage tanls. The workperformed mayinclude newworlq rcconstruction, rehabilitation, and rcpain. Specialry trade contractors arc included in this grcup if they are engaged in activities primarily related to water, seyrer line, and related strucnres construction. All structures (including Page ll ' NAICS code definitiors provided bythe U.S. Censrs Bureau. b"ild-g, that are i"t gral pars of water and sewer networls (e.g., storage unls, pumping stations, watertr€atrnent plants, and sewage treatment pl""ts) are included in this industry. Food and Belrcr:age Storcs- NAICS code 445: Indusuies in the Food and Beverage Stores zubsector usually reail food and beverage merchandise from fixed point-of-sale locations. Esublishrnents in this subsector have special equipment (e.g., freezers, refrigerated display cases, refrigeraton) for displaying food and beverage goo&. They have staff trained in the processing of food products to guanntee the proper stonge and sanitary conditions requirtd by regulatory authority. Misccllaneous Store Rctailers - NAICS 453: Industries in the Mscellaneous Store Retailers subsector retail merchandise from fixed point-of-sale locations (except new or used motor vehicles and parts; new fumiture and home fumishings; new appliances and electronic products; new building matfrials and ganden equipment and supplies; food and beverages; heafth and penonal care goods; gasoline; new clotling and accessories; and new sponing goods, hobby goods, bools, and music). Establishnrents in this subsector include stores with unigue characteristics like florisa, used merchandise stores, and pet and pet supplystores as well as other store retailers. Amusement Cambling, and Recrcation Industries - NAICS 7l3z Indutries in the Amusernent, Gambling, and Recreation Industries subsector (1) operate facilities where patrons can primarily enBage in spons, recreation, amtrsement, or gambling activities and/or (2) provide other arnusernent, and recreation services, such as supplying and senricing amuserrcnt devices in phces of business operated by othen; operating sports tealns, clubs, or leagues engaged in pl"yrrrg ganrcs for recreational purposes; and guiding toun without using oansponation equipmenc Accommodation - NAICS code 727: Industries in the Accomrnodation subsector provide lodging or shon-term accommodations for travelers, vacationers, and others. There is a wide range of establishments in rhese hdrstries. Some provide lodgry only; while others provide meals, I",-dty sewices, and recreational facilfuies, as well as lodg"rg. lodging esublishrrpnts are classified in this subsector even if the provision of complementary services generates more revenue. The qpes of complementary services provided vary from establishment to establishment. Food Scrvices and Drinking Places - NAICS 722: Industries in the Food Services and Drinking Places subsector preparc rreals, snacls, and beverages to custoflrer onder for imrnediate on-premises and off-prcmises consumption. There is a wide range of esablishments in these indusuies. Some provide food and drink only; while othen provide variors combinations of seating space, waiter/waitress services and incidental amenities, such as limited entertainment. The indrstries in the subsector are grouped based on the qpe and level of services provided. The industry groups are special food services, such as food service conu;Etors, cateren, and mobile food services; drinldng places; and restatu:ants and otlrer eating places. Other Personal Services - NAICS 8129: This industry group comprises establishrnena primarily engaged in providing personal services (except personal care services, death care senrices, or dry cleaning and laundry services). This includes Pet Grc (except Veterinary) Services, Photofinishing, Par{<ing Iots and Garages, and All OtherPenonal Services, including Vedding Chapels. Personal C-are Services - NAICS E12t This industry group comprises establishments that provide app€armce care services to individual consumers. These include Flair, Nail, and Skin Grr Services and Other Personal Care Services. Page l2 Lessors of Noruesidential Buildings (except Miniwarehotrses) - NAICS 53ll2z This indtxtry comprises esablishmenu primarilyengaged in acung as lessors of buildings (except miniwarehouses and self-storage units) that are not used as residences or dwellings. Included in this indwtry are: (1) owner-lessors of nonrcsidential buildings; (2) establishments renting real estate and then acting as lessors in subleasing it to others; and (l) establishments providing full service office space, whether on a lease or service contract basis. '\[ater, Sewage and Other Systems - NAICS 2213: Industries in this sector include water treatment plants, waler supply sptems, sewer s)6terns, and/or sewage treaunent facilities that collect" treat, and dispose of waste. The proposed project will be constructed and operated in four distinct phases. A summary of the proposed project constnrction expenditure and operating employment data is summarized below, by phase: C-onstnrction: C.onsuuction cost of the project is estimated at $201,413,493 (in 2014 dollars) over the four phases. This includes onlythe harrd construction costs and excludes marketing, engineering, legal, insurance, taxes, design and permining, sales ta:<, and contingencycosts (soft costs). Soft costs are shown in the below tables, btrt are not included in the total afirount shown for each phase. Marfuia DocklFuel' LineVSanitary Updates mginee*ng & Constrltants* 698,536 ,3,660,480 3,335,737 1,181,649 512,170 10,497 I*gal, Llstraoge, Taxes * Site Work & Infrastructure 752,397, 30,261,236 Buildingp- Remodeling Projects Consuking Fes* Fees and Pertrlits+ SiteWork Excavation Constnrction General .qqd Administratiot* Contingency+ 317,000 277,000 940,000 135,100 32,184,810 4,350,000 650,000 Summary of Estimated Construction Costs Amount Page l3 'Siteitir.ork. 435"000,: ,:SitUWork .,:, ' , ' , ': lii:. Construction,; ' .' .' 132i000$ ,and $ C,sntingency+ , ' 12,560-pO0 rNot included in total As the cunent RIIAS II rrnrhiplie$ are based on 2010 data, we mtst deflare the construction expenditures to 2010 dollars. According to the Turner Construction Building C-ost Index, construction costs have been on an increase from 2010 through 2014. The cost index in 2010 was 799 vs. the 2nd quarter2014 cost index of 896. Therefore, the construction costs forthis project will need to be reduced to 2010 dollars. Page l4 2nd Quartcr 2O!+ lstQusrbr2014 4fi Quarter20r:i 3rd Quarter 2013 201:l 20L2 20LL 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2oo5 2004 2003 2002 2001 898 885 878 868 L24 o.80 1-15 i-05 864 830 8L2 799 832 908 85zt 793 7L7 655 621 619 613 4.L 2.L r-6 4.0 €.4 6.3 7.7 10.6 9.5 5.4 0.3 1-0 3.0 The Turner tsuildinB Cosr lndex is rletermlned by the follolffing factors concidared on a natiorDvide basis: ldbor ratet and productivity. malErial prlces and the conlpetitiye conditisn of the markatplace. Ttmor To conven this figure to 2010 dollan we use the 2014 index of 896 and divide it bythe 2010 index of zgg. This gives ru a figure of 896/799 :1.121. To convert rhe $201,413,493 cost rr2014 dollan to 2010 dollars, rhe2014 expenditure is divided byl.l?L,to yield $179,608,684. Eacility Operations: Per the Developer, the project will generate an estimated ?25 dnect operating jobs ttuough variots operating components over the four phases as sununarized below. Page l5 Phase 2014 Dollan 2010 Dollas $ 45,860,349 $ +0,895557Phase I 29,659228Phase 2 33259,910 35,747291Phase 3 39,41+234 73,906,608Phase 4 82,8/9,000 Total $ 201,413,493 $ 179,608,684 722$osd' 2213rWatm, ,',' '.5 GolfB Sumnrarl' of Lstinrated EnrployeesNAICS CodeDescription rat Errtploy'ees *It should be noted tlrat Security, Shuule, Facilfuies, and Offices positions are included in these ope rating components. Given these construction costs and openting jobs, the RIIAS II model can be used to estimate direa and indirect constnrction and indirea employ:rent associated wirh the project. Page l6 3. Findings & C-alculations Shown in the chart below are t}e actual RII{S II final demand and employment nnrltipliers for Jefferson Cor:nry \U7A These muhiplien are used to estimate employnent associated with the ProJect. RIMS II Multiplies (2002/20t0) Total Multiplien forOupug Eamings, Employment, and Value Added by Detailed Industry efferson \r/A Building Constnrction and C.oUstnrc.So-n.gf Infrastrucuut For the construction sector (NAICS code 230000) the final denund muhiplier ls 9.7481, and the employment muldplier ;s 1.5147. The final demand muldplier is used m determine the toal number of jobs produced based on the expenditurcs for construction of the project's buildings- This figure is $179.609 million (in 2010 dollars). Thercfore there would be $179.609 times 9.7481, or l/50.825 jobs supported bythis project, including dircct and indirea jobs for all fow phases. Tables 3-1 and 3-4 show the combined economic impact of the project's building and infrastructure construction expenditures, by phase, for the 20 major industrial classifications in the RIIvXS II input/output model. Page l7 Indrstry FinalDemand DirtctEffect Ouput (dollan) Eamings (dollan) Employment (jobs) Velue- ad&d (dollen) Earnings (dollan) Emphyment frb*) lfater, Sewage, and Other Systems (221300)1.3818 0.3283 7.0101 0.8864 t.4796 t.6666 Corutnrction (230000)1.4324 0.4448 9.7481 0.757 1,330,t t.5147 ReEil Tlade (4A0000)t.346+0.3985 13.9498 0.8737 1.2609 1.2553 Real Estate (531000)1.2t15 0.183 t4.2139 0.9235 1.382i 1.1363 Amusement and Recgarion Industries (713800)1.3790 0.4t70 25.6376 0.8563 1.2881 1.1400 ltrotels, Motels and Orher Accommodations (72 1A00)1.3920 0.3159 13.4116 0.8141 1.5268 1.3275 Food Services and Drinldng Places (722000)1.3993 0.4169 19.6494 0.7622 7.3132 7.1907 Penond Care Services (812100)t.4149 0.4758 13.6848 0.9095 7.2770 7.3369 Other Penonal Services (812e00)7.2447 0.1967 5.2349 0.7251 t-+955 t.7028 Muhi rlier Industry group Agriculture, forestry, fi shing Mining Utilities Construction Manufactruing Wholesale trade Retail trade Transportation and warehousing lnforrnation Finance and insurance Real estate and rental and leasing Professional, scie,ntific, services Managernent of companies Admjnistrative and waste management Educational seryices Health care and social assistance Arts, entertainrnent, and recreation Accommodation Food senrices and drinking places Other services Households TotaI OutpuUEmployee $ 149,351 164,902 460,481 155,394 236,420 222,034 89,950 118,827 226,087 306,159 286,070 158J23 272,721 66947 56,106 109,043 42,345 94,38E 60,755 734,534 Earnings/Employee $ 32,468 34,796 82,474 51,953 44,549 64407 ' 29,030 M,753 54,348 63406 I1,609 6t9s2 90,909 25,900 I 8,1 52 45,'145 14,659 26,786 l93gt 39,195 7,792 Emplolment 0.630 2.703 1.190 264.4t0 10.465 2.413 4t.873 2.650 1.881 2.257 9.864 6.535 0.045 3.963 2.478 15.377 2.5t1 3.205 13.328 7.721 3.149 398.6s0 S 146,963 $45,630 Table 3-1 shows an estimated 398.650 employees will be created byconstruction activities in Phase 1 of the project. Output per new worker for the corstruction sector would be about $155,394, with average annual eamings of abow $51,953. For all new worlsers, the conesponding figures are $146,963 and $45,630. Page l8 Industry group Agri culturq forest4r, fishing Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale trade Retail trade Transportation and warehousing Information Finance and insurance Real estate and rental and leasing Professional, scientific, services Managemeut of companies Administrative and waste management Educational services Health care and social assistance Arts, entertainment, and recreation Accommodation Food services and drinking places Other services Households Total Emplolment 0.457 1.960 0.863 191.762 7.590 1.750 30.368 1.922 1.364 1.637 7.t54 4.740 0.033 2.874 t.797 1 1.152 1.821 2.325 9.666 5.600 2.284 289.118 S Output/ Employee $ t 49,351 164,902 460,481 155,394 236,420 222,034 E9,950 118,827 226,087 306,159 286,070 158,323 272,727 66,M7 56,106 109,043 42,345 94,388 60,755 134,534 Earningr/Employee $ 32,468 34,796 82,474 51,953 44,549 64,407 2E,030 4,753 s4348 63A06 11,609 61,952 90,909 25,800 18,152 45,745 I4,659 26,786 lg,33l 39,195 7,792 146,963 $45,630 Table 3-2 shows an estirnated 289.118 employees will be created byconstruction actffies in Phase 2 of the proiect. Output and eamings per emplo)€e data for constnrction and total emplopes will be the same as in Phase 1. I'age l9 Industry group Agriculture, forestry, fi shing Mining Utilitics Construction Manufacturing Wholesale trade Retail hade Transportation and warehousing Information Finance and insuznce Real estate and rental and leasing Professional, scie,ntific, s€n ices Mana ganent of companies Administrative and waste marngement Educational services Health care and scrial assistanse Arts, entertainment, and recreation Accommodation Food services and drinking places Other services llouseholds OutpuUEmployee $ 149,351 164,902 460y'81 155,394 236,420 222,A34 gg,g50 l7g,g27 226,087 306,159 296,070 158,323 272,727 66,M7 56,106 109,043 42,345 94,388 60,755 134,534 Earnings/Employee $ 32,468 34,796 82,474 51,953 44,549 ffi,407 29,030 44,753 54,348 63,406 11,609 61,952 90,909 25,800 18,152 45,745 14,659 26,796 19,331 39,195 7,792 Employment 0.541 2.323 1.023 227.245 8.994 2.074 35.987 2.278 1.617 1.940 8,478 5.6t7 0.039 3.406 2.130 13.215 2.158 2.756 1t.455 6.636 2.706 Total 342.616 $146,963 $45,630 Table 3-3 shows an estimated 342.616 emplopes will be created by construction activities in Phase 3 of the proiect. Page ll0 Industry group Agriculture, forestry, fi shing Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale trade Retail trade Transportation and warehousing Inforrnation Finance and irsurance Real estate and rental and leasing Professional, scientific, services Managanent o f companies Administrative and waste managemeirt Educational seryices Health care and social assistance Arts, entertainrnent, and recreation Accommodation Food services and &inking places Other sernices Households Totd OutpuU Employee $ 149,351 164,902 460,481 155,394 236,420 222,034 seBso I lg,g27 226,087 306,159 286,074 158,323 277,727 66947 56,106 109,043 42,345 94,388 60,755 134,534 Earnings/Employee $ 32,468 34,796 82,474 51,953 44,549 64,407 28,030 44,753 54,348 63,406 I1,609 61,952 90,909 25,900 18,152 45,'745 14,658 26,786 19331 39,195 7,'192 Employment 1.138 4.885 2.tst 477.843 18.913 4.360 75.673 4.789 3.400 4.080 17.826 11.810 0.081 7.162 4.4't9 27.789 4.538 5.794 24.086 13.954 s.691 720.U2 $146,963 $45,630 Table 3-4 shows an estimated 72A.MZ emplolaes will be created byconstnrction activities in Phase 4 of the project. Pagc lll Industry group Agriculhre, forestry, fi shing Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale bade Retail trade Transportation and warehousing Information Finance and insurance Real estate and rental and leasing Professional, scientifi.c, services Marngernent of courpanies Administrative and waste rnanagement Educational services Health care and social assistance Arts, entertainment, and recreation Accommodation Food services and drinking places Other services Households Total OutpuU Employee $ 154,519 157,895 4&,630 155,925 224,935 223,O09 90,065 102,130 186,U2 3 I 1,159 172,175 I lg,l49 217 391 71,620 55,062 109,112 37,579 94,142 60,597 144,823 15.479 $71,20E $ EarningilEmployee $ 32,070 52,632 83,601 51,975 37,922 63,7t7 28,04t 54,615 49,694 04378 10,885 49,6,45 86,957 25,962 17,,162 45,741 13,570 27,197 19,241 40,694 8,310 Employment 0.027 0.001 0.049 0.038 0.152 0.045 0.424 0.t44 0.060 0.037 0.398 0.056 0.004 0.088 0.044 0.276 0.075 0.075 13.298 0.t32 0.057 2t?22 Operatiorx-Phase I Phase 1 of project operations includes Food Services, Ivlarina and Fun Gnter (Amr:sernent/Recreation), Ftrctel Suites, and Retail emplopes. Tables 15 through 3-8 show the economic impact of emplopes of projeo's Phase 1 for the 20 najor industrial classifications in the RII\dS tr input/output model. Pagc 112 Table 3-5 shows that there will be a total of 15.479 new jobs creat€d from the operation of the food and beverage portion of the project. Output per new wodser for the Food Services and Drinking Places sector would be about $60,597, with average annual earnings of about $19241. For all new worlren, the corresponding figures are $71208 ard$21)22. Table 3-6 shows that there will be a total of +Z.ggO new jobs created from the operation of *re marina and fun center portion of the project. Output per new worker for t}re Arts, Entenainment, Industry group Agricultrue, forestry, fi shing Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale trade Retail trade Transportation and warehousing Information Finance and insurance Real estate and rental and leasing Professional, scientific, service.s Management of companies Adrninistrative and waste managemsnt Educational services Health care and social assistance Arts, entertainment, and recreation Accommodation Food services and drinking places Other services Households Total OutpuUEmployee $ 173,077 166,667 463,902 155,870 l7g,l56 22t,gtE 89,945 107,979 186,016 3ll,ul 160,434 |u,402 225,806 67,384 57,E23 l0g,04g 44,401 94,545 60,695 152,290 Eamings/Employee $ 33,654 55,556 E43ss 52,632 39,504 63,014 28,083 47,273 47,493 64,815 n,029 51,435 96,774 26,048 18,141 45,675 14,381 26,667 19,251 41,047 8,310 Employment 0.039 0.003 0.122 0,@2 0.241 0.068 0.951 0.154 0.142 0.101 1.084 0.1s6 0.006 0.330 0.165 0.654 42.272 0.154 0..698 0.314 0.135 47.880 $53,788 $16373 Page 113 Industry group Agricultre, forestry, fishing Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale trade Retail trade Transportation and warehousing Inforrnation Finance and insuranse Real estate and rental and leasing Professional, scie,ntific, services Man agenrent of companies Administrative and waste managernent Educational services Health carc and social assistance Arts, entertainrnent, and recreation Accommodation Food services and drinking places Other services Households OutpuU Employee $ 143,939 166,657 463,904 154,867 193,34 220,93O 89,863 99,738 2M,679 313,063 172,737 tzzA'.ts 236,842 71,928 55,172 t@,275 42,882 9g,g4l 60,586 157,509 Eamings/Employee $ 30,303 55,556 84,459 5l,ggl 41,2U 65,Egl 27,914 57J43 51,170 65,315 10,926 50,505 r05263 2s475 18391 45,913 tsA37 20,547 19,174 43,346 7,313 Employment 0.007 0.001 0.044 0.045 0.062 0.0r3 0.202 0.170 0.034 0.022 0.190 0.039 0.002 0.099 0.022 0.132 0.029 5.M6 0.372 0.081 0.027 TotaI 6.637 $t03,777 $231577 and Recreation sector would be about $44,401, with average arurual eamings of about $14J81. For all newworken, the corresponding figures are $53,788 and$L6,273. Table 3-7 shows that there will be a total of 6.637 new jobs crearcd from t}e operarion of the hotel suites ponion of the projea. Ourput per new worker for the Accommodation sector would be about $98,941, with average annual eamings of about $20,547. For all new workerc, the corresponding figurEs are $103 /77 and $23,577 . Page l14 Industry group Agriculture, forestry, fi shing Mining uriliries Constnrction Manufacturing Wholesale trade Retail trade Transportation and warehousing Information Finance and insurance Real estate and rental and leasing Professional, scie,ntific, services Managernent of companies Administrative and waste mauagement Educational services Health care and social assistance Arts, enlertainment, and recreation Accommodation Food services and drinking places Other seryices Households Total OutpuU Employee $ 136,585 t66,667 4ffi,602 155863 l7l,E88 223,4U 89,991 l04,7gl 182,123 3l1,449 lffi,.164 I13,699 222,222 63,895 56,426 109,1 l8 42,789 94,637 60,502 742,290 Earnings/Employee $ 34,146 Emplolment 0.009 0.001 0.020 0.020 0.053 0.017 5.219 0.069 0.040 0.027 0.23t 0.033 0.001 0.05E 0.029 0.15 1 0,028 0.029 0.t4 0.068 0.031 84,071 52,752 38,950 63,830 28,000 48,461 48,045 63,973 10,910 47,945 lll,lll 25,404 18,E09 45,740 14263 26,814 19,122 39,709 7,246 6.276 $96,518 $28,560 Table 3-8 shows that there will be a rctal o{ 6.276 new jobs created from the operation of the food and beverage store ponion of the prqea. Outp.rt per neu/ worker for the Retail tmde sector would be about $89991, with average annual earnings of about $28,000. For all new workers, the corresponding figures are $96,518 and $28,560. Page 115 Ooenrtions-Phase 2 Phase 2 of project opentions includes Flotel Suites, Food Services, Vedding Chapef C-onvention Crnter, Spa, Gift Shop,'Waste Water }vlanagemenq and Recreation emplopes. Tables 3-9 through 3'16 show the economic i*pr.t of employees of project's Phase 2 for the 2A m$or industrial classificatiors in the RINIS II input/output model. Industry group Agriculture, forestry, fi shing Mining Utilitics Constnrction Manufacturing Wholesale trade Retail trade Transportation and warehousin g Information Finance and insurance Real estate and rental and leasing Professional, scieirtific, services M anagement of companies Administrative and waste management Educational services Health care and social assistance Arts, e,ntertainrnent, and recreation Accommodation Food services and drinking places Other services Households OutpuU Employee $ 143,939 166,667 463,gil 154,967 t93,34 220,93O 89,963 99,738 2M,678 313,063 772,71',1 722,475 236,942 ,71,928 55,172 709,275 42,9t2 98,941 60,586 157,509 Earnings/Employee $ 30,303 55,556 94,459 51,991 41,204 65,891 27,914 5',1,743 5 l, l7o 65,315 10,926 50,505 105,253 25,475 18,391 45,813 15,437 20,547 19,174 43,346 7,313 Employment 0.057 0.008 0.387 0.394 0.550 0.1l2 1.779 1.493 0.298 0.193 1.674 0.345 0.017 0.872 0.189 1.160 0.254 44.405 3.27t 0.713 0.238 Total 5E.410 S 103,777 S 23577 Page 116 Table 3-9 shows that there will be a total of 58.410 new iobs created from the operation of the hotel suites portion of the project. Output per new worlser for the Accommodation sector would be about $98,941, with average annrul eamings of about $20,547. For all new workers, the corre qponding f igures are $103,77 7 and $23,577 . Table 3-10 shows that there vdll be a total of 25.005 new jobs created fiom the operation of the food services portion of the projea. Outprr per neqr s'orker for the Food Services and Drinking Industry gtroup Agriculture, forestry, fishing Mining Utilities Construction Manufachring Wholesale trade Retail trade Transportation and warehousing Information Finance and insurance Real estate and rental and leasing Professional, scientifi c, services Management of companies Administrative and waste management Educational senrices Health care and social assistance Arts, entertainment, and recreation Accommodation Food services and drinking places Other services Households Total Output/Employee $ 154,519 157,895 46/,630 155,925 224,935 223,009 90,065 102,130 186,842 3l I,159 172,175 I 19,149 217,391 71,620 55,062 l0g,l 12 37,578 94,142 60,597 t44,823 EanringelEmployee $ 32,070 52,632 83,601 51,975 3',7,922 63,'.l17 28,041 54,61.5 48,684 &,378 10,885 49,645 86,957 25,962 17,762 45,701 13,570 27,197 19,241 40,694 8,310 Employment 0.044 0.002 0.079 0.061 0.245 0.072 0.685 0.233 0.097 0.059 0.e3 0.090 0.006 0.142 0.072 0.446 0.122 0.t22 21.481 0.213 0,092 2s.00s $71208 $2t222 Page l17 Places sector would be about $60,597,with average annual eamings of about $1924L. For all new worlrers, the corrcsponding figures ue $71208 and$21222. Table 3-11 shows that there will be a total of 1.703 new jobs created from the operation of the wedding chapel portion of the project. O,rtput per new worker for the Other Services sector would be about $319,509, with average annual earnings of about $+2,733. For all new worlsers, t}e corresponding figures are $237,774 and $37,518. Pagc 118 Industry group Agriculture, forestry, fishing [\tlining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale trade Raail trade Transportation and warehousing Information Finance and insuance Real estate and rental and leasing Professional, scientif c, services Managernent of companies A&ninistrative and waste management Educational services Healft care and social assistance Arts, entertainment, and recreation Accorrunodation Food services and drinking places Other services Households Total OutpuU Employee $ t 57,895 142,857 461,t87 155,79'l I5I,869 223,6E4 89,88E 102,977 20E,'.l43 325,599 130,415 tt9,24l 272,727 53,270 56,180 l0g,g27 49,528 g3,g0g 60,458 319,509 Earnings/Employee $ 35,088 82,192 50,725 39,720 65,789 27,896 47,466 49,1 80 66,514 10,772 50,136 90,909 24,949 18,72',7 45,345 16,509 26,zffi 19,015 42,733 8,824 37518 Employment 0.002 0.000 0.007 0.009 0.u2 0.007 0.084 0.040 0.030 0.0r4 0.t42 0.024 0.000 0.096 0.009 0.054 0.014 0.017 0.067 1.033 0.01I 1.703 $237fi4 $ Industry group Agriculture, forestrlr, fi shing Mining utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale trade Retail trade Transportation and warehousing Information Finance and insurance Real estate and rental and leasing Professional, scie,ntific, services Managernent o f companies Administrative and waste management Educational services Health care and social assistance Arts, entertainment, and recreation Accommodation Food services and drinking places Other services Households Total OutpuU Employee $ 158,730 1g7,500 466,951 155,531 206,140 222222 89,923 107,570 226,601 326,99 81,548 136,465 142,957 87,459 56,452 109,304 43,321 95,339 60,571 154,062 Earnings/Employeo s 31,746 62,500 85,288 s1479 39,474 64,E15 28,016 43,825 54,187 67,941 10,593 58,166 t42,957 28,603 20,161 45,y3 14440 27,542 t9429 42,0t7 6,309 Employment 0.003 0.001 0.022 0.044 0,01I 0,005 0.106 0.0I2 0.010 0.023 6.2t7 0.021 0.000 0.087 0.012 0.074 0.013 0.023 0.084 0.034 0.015 6.818 S 85,248 $r2,889 Table 3-12 shows that there will be a toul of 6.818 new jobs crcarcd from the operation of the convention center portion of the proiecL Grtpot per new worlrer for the Real Estate and Rental sector would be about $81,548, with average annual eamings of about $10,593. For all new worken, the corresponding figures are $85248 and $12,889. Page 119 Industry group Agricultug forestry, fishing Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale trade Retail trade Transportation and warehousing Information Finance and insurance Real estate and rental and leasing Professional, scientific, sernices Management of companies Administrative and \paste maragemeirt Educational services Health care and social assistance Arts, eirtertainment, and recreation Accomrnodalion Food services and drinking places Other services Households OutpuU Employee $ 147287 142,957 459,854 155,702 198,030 222,874 89,951 106,027 186,937 312,500 163,077 I 19,186 250,000 73,615 55300 109,027 42,151 94,104 60,599 98,577 Eernings/Employee $ 31,008 7rA29 E3,942 52,632 40,394 4,516 27,947 47,99L 49,423 ffi,236 10,924 47,965 83,333 27,697 19,433 45,761 1453s 27211 lg,l36 361s6 7282 Emplolment 0.026 0.003 0,112 0.094 0.208 0.070 1.343 0.184 0.182 0.118 1.315 0.141 0.00s 0.281 0.134 0.820 0.141 0.181 0.836 21.771 0.t69 Total 2E.075 $103i384 $t4r768 Table 3-13 shows that there will be a total af 28.075 new jobs created from the operation of *re qpa ponion of the projecr Owput per new worker for the Other Services sector would be about $?8,577, with average annual eamings of about $36356. For all new workers, the corrcsponding figures are $103,384 and $34,768 I'}age 120 Industry group A griculture, forestry, fishing Mining utilities Constnrction Manufacturing Wholesale trade Retail trade Transportation and warehousing Information Finance and insurance Real estat€ and rental and leasing Professional, scientific, services M anagement of companies Administrative and waste rnanagement Educational services Health care and social assistance Arts, entertainment, and recreation Accommodation Food services and drinking places Other seryices Households OrtpUt/ Employee $ 136,585 166,667 46/,602 155,963 l7l,888 223,404 89,991 I04,7El 182,123 311,44E 166,7& I 13,699 222,222 63,895 56,426 109,1 lg 42,799 94,637 60,502 742,290 EarningslEmployee $ 34,146 Employment 0.006 0.000 0.012 0.012 0.032 0.010 3.132 0.041 4.024 0,016 0.139 0.020 0.000 0.03s 0.017 0.090 0.017 0.017 0.086 0.041 0.019 Total 3.766 $96,518 $ 84,071 52,752 38,950 63,830 28,000 48,461 48,045 63,9',13 10,910 47,945 lll,lll 25,404 r8,809 45,'140 14,263 26,8t4 19,t22 39,709 '7,246 28,560 Table 3-14 shows that there will be a rctal of 3J66 new jobs crcarcd from the operation of the gift shop portion of the project Output per new worker for the Retail trade sector would be about $89,991, with average annual earnings of about $28,000. For all new wor[ers, the corresponding figures are $96,518 and $28,560 Page 121 Industry group Agriculture, forestry, fi shing Mining utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale trade Retail trade Transportation and warehousing Information Finance and insurance Real estate and rental and leasing Professional, scientifi c, services Management o f companies Administrative and waste managernent Educational services Health care and social assistance Arts, entertainment, and recreation Accommodation Food services and drirking places Otler services Households TotaI OutpuUEmployee s 173,077 166,667 463,902 155,870 l7g,l56 221,918 89,945 707,879 186,016 3ll,ll1 160334 t24AO2 225,806 67,3U 57,823 109,049 44101 94,545 60,695 152,290 ErrnirygEmployee $ 33,654 55,556 84I8s 52,632 39,504 63,014 28,083 47,27t 47,493 64,815 11,029 5133s 96,714 26,U8 l8,I4l 45,675 14,381 26,667 t9251 41,u7 8,310 Employment 0.0r0 0,001 0.032 0.024 0.063 0.018 0.249 0.040 0.037 0.026 0.284 0.041 0.002 0.086 0.&13 0.171 I1,071 0.040 0.r 83 .0.082 0.035 12.540 $53,788 S 16273 Table 3-15 shows that there will be a total of 12.540 new jobs created from the openation of the recreation portion of the project. Ottput per new worker for the Ans, Entertainmeng and Recreation sector would be abotrt $44,401, with average annual earnings of abow $14,381. For all new workers, the corresponding figurcs are $53,788 and $16,273. P age 122 Industry group Agriculture, forestry, fi shing Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale trade Retail trade Transportation and warehousing Information Finance and insurauce Real estate and rental and leasing Professional, scientifi c, services Management of companies Administrative and waste managem€nt Educational senrices Health care and social assistance Arts, entertainurent, and recreation Accommodation Food sernices and drinking places Other services Households OutpuUEmployee $ 1M,444 173,469 238,964 155,347 216,514 222,222 89,986 107,200 240,954 307,255 252,165 739,423 200,000 71,E09 56,433 109,183 43,103 95,156 60,730 140,5I4 Earninge/Employee $ 33,333 35,774 52,914 5lg9l 42202 65,134 27,966 51,200 57,927 64,011 17,265 53,285 Emplolment 0.004 0.009 2.011 0.30s 0.026 0.012 0.21I 0.030 0.016 0.033 0.1l0 0.119 0.000 0.036 0.021 0.132 a.022 o.027 0.1l6 0.067 0.027 26,596 | 9,059 45,553 15,086 27,682 19,286 39,230 7,M2 46,8323.333 $t97,tt6 $ Table 3- 16 shows that there will be a total of 3.333 new jobs created from the openltion of t}e waste water ponion of the project. Output per new worker for the Utilities sector would be about $238,954, with average anntral eamingp of about $52,914. For all new workers, the corresponding figrnes arc $197,116 and $46,832. Page 123 TotaI Openrtions-Phase 3 Phase 3 of project oper:ations includes GoH (Amsemens/Recreadon), Food Services, and'Wxte Water emplopes. Tables 3-17 through 3-19 show t}e economic impact of emplopes of project's Phase 3 forthe 20 rrujor industrial classificatiors in the RIIvIS II input/output model. Industry group Agriculture, forestry, fishing Mining utilities Construction Manufactr:ring Wholesale trade Retail trade Transportation and warehousing Information Finance and insurance Real estate and rental aud leasing Professional, scientifi c, services Management of companies Administrative and waste management Educational services Health care and social assistance Arts, entertai:rment, and recreation Accommodation Food services and drinking places Other services Households OutpuU Employee $ 173,W7 166,667 4$9A2 155,870 l7g,l56 221,918 89,945 lo7,879 lE6,0l6 3ll,1ll 160,434 t24402 225,806 67,384 57,823 109,049 4,40t 94,545 60,695 t52,2gO EarningslEmployee $ 33,654 55,556 84,4E5 52,632 39,504 63,014 2E,083 4? 273 47A93 64,915 I1,029 stl3s 96,774 26,048 18,141 45,675 14,381 26,667 79,251 47,047 8,310 Employment 0.034 0.003 0.107 0.081 0.212 0.060 0.838 0.136 0.125 0.089 0.955 0.138 0.005 0.29r 0.145 0.576 37.239 0.r36 0.615 0.277 0.1l9 Total 42.180 $53,7E8 $16?73 P age 124 Table 3-L7 shows that there will be a total of +Z.1so new jobs creat€d from the operation of the golf portion of the project. Output per new worker for the Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation sector would be about $44,401, with average annual eamings of about $14181. For all new worken, the corresponding figqres are $53,788 and $L6,27 3. Table 3-18 shows that there will be a total of 5.954 new jobs created from the operation of the food services portion of the project. Output per new worker for the Food Services and Drinking Places Industry group Agriculture, forestry, fi shing Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale trade Retail trade Transportation and warehousing Information Finance and insurance Real estate and rental and leasing Professional, scisntifi c, services Management of companies Administrative and waste rnanagement Educational services Health care and social assistance Arts, entertainment and recreation Accommodation Food services and drinking places Other services Households Total OutpuUEmployee s 154,519 157,895 46l,630 155,925 224,935 223,009 90,065 102,130 186,842 3l 1,159 772,1'15 I 19,149 2L7,391 71,620 55,062 109,1 12 37,57E 94,142 60,597 144,823 Earnings/Employee $ 32,070 52,632 83,601 51,975 37,922 63,717 28,041 54,615 48,684 64,378 l0,gg5 49,645 96,957 25,962 17,762 45,701 13,570 21,197 19,241 40,694 8,310 Employment 0.010 0.001 0.019 0.015 0.058 0.0r7 0.163 0.055 0.023 0.014 0. r53 0.021 0.001 0.034 0.017 0.106 0.029 0.029 5.1 l5 0.051 0.022 s.9s4 $71,208 $21,222 Page 125 Industry group Agriculttre, forestry, fi shing Mining Utilities Consbuction Manufacttuing Wholesale trade Retail trade Transportation and warehousing Information Finance and insurance Real estate and rental and leasing hofessional, scientifi c, services Management of companies Administrative and waste management Educational services Health care and social assistance Arts, entertainrnent, and recreation Accommodation Food services and drinking places Other service,s Households Total OutpuU Employee $ t4,444 173469 23896/. 155347 216,5t4 222222 89,986 107,200 240,854 307,255 252,166 r39A23 200,000 7l,g0g 56,433 109,183 43,103 95,156 60,730 140,514 EarnlngslEmployee $ 33,333 35,774 52,914 51,991 42202 65,134 77,966 , 51,200 57,927 64,011 n265 53,295 Emplolment 0.009 0.019 4.022 0.609 0.052 0.025 0.422 0.059 0.031 0.067 0.219 0.237 0.000 0.0't2 0.042 0263 0.044 0.055 0.232 0.133 0.054 26,596 18,059 45,553 15,086 27,682 19,286 39,230 7,042 6.666 $t97,lt6 $46,832 sectorwould be about $50,597, with average annual earnings of about $1924L. For all newworlsen, the corresponding figures are $71,209 arlrd$Zt2ZZ. Table 3-19 shows drat there will be a total of 6.666 new jobs created from the operation of the waste water portion of the project. Ourput per new worker for the Lhilities sector would be about $238964, with average annrral earnings of about $52,914. For all new worlsers, the corresponding figures are $192,116 and $46,832. Pagc 126 Operations-Phase 4 Phase 4 of project operations includes 'Waste Warer emplopes. Table 3-20 shows the economic impact of employees of project's Phase 4 for the 20 major industrial cl*sifications in the RIIIS II input/output rnodel Industry group Agriculture, foresbry, fish'ng Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale trade Retail trade Transportation and warehousing Information Finance and insurance Real estate and rental and leasing Prof'essional, scientifi c, services M anagement of conrpanies Administrative and waste management Educational services Health care and social assistance Arts, entertainment, and recreation Acconunodation Food services and drinking places Other senrices Households TotaI OufuuU Employee $ 1U,444 173,469 238,99 155,347 216,514 222,222 89,986 107,200 240,854 307,255 252,166 139,423 200,000 7l,g0g 56,433 109,183 43,103 95,156 60,730 140,514 Earningr/Employee $ 33,333 35,774 52,914 51,991 42,202 65,134 27966 s1300 57,927 64,011 11,265 53,285 Ernployment 0.01I 0.023 5.028 0.761 0.065 0.031 0.527 4.074 0.039 0.084 0.274 0.297 0.001 0.089 0.053 0.329 0.055 0.069 0,290 0.167 0.06E 26,596 18,059 45,553 15,086 27,692 19,286 39,230 7,042 46,832E.333 $197,116 $ Table 3-20 shows that there will be a total of 8.333 new jobs crcated from the operation of the rpaste water portion of the prrciea. Output per new worker for the Utilities sector would be about $238,964, with average annrnl earnings of about $52,974. For all new workers, the corresponding figures are $197,176 and $46,832. Pagc 127 4. C-oncltsion The purpose of the analysis is to estimarc the number of direct and indirect jobs associated wfuh rhe MPR projea and determine average waBes corresponding to these jobs. Given these estimates, x sumnnrized above, the anabruis can determine the number of lobs associated with the project that will eam an average wage of 80o/o or less of the Brinnon arca average median incorrr (AlvII). The Brinnon area median income is estimated at$42,5792 and 80o/o of this AJvII amounr is estimated at $34,143. C-onstrucdon An estirnated 342 construction-rtlated iobs will have average earnings of 80o/o or less of the Brinnon area Alr4[. This includes direit and indirea jobs associated with the MPR project construction and is summarizcd below, byphase, with average vxages for each industrygroup. Corutuction: Total Direct and obs atorBelowthe BrinnonArce AIVII An estirnated 223 opentions-rclated iobs will have average earningp of 80o/o or less of the Brinnon area AMI. This includes direct and indirect jobs associated with the MPR project operation and is summarized below, byphase, with average wages for each industrygroup. 5{ pbov- 8 aZe 2 U.S. Gasw Buueau, 2@8-2012 American Communfty Survey. "Selected Economic Characterisrics." Data for Brinnon, Vashington 41-873 ri I 30.368 35.987 ;, forwgy,fishtuig: 1.797 i'q,: .-.:t. 1 8,1 52 :f a'6sa 26,786 Page 128 ,.:, ' ' !:,i It" ,, '..: :. Toal Direct and Indircct obs at or Below thc Brinnon Area AIVII Retail trade Real esta& and rental and leasiag ,,,,, Administrative and waste management Educational services Arls, enteilainment, and recreation s0.082fishing 32,91 Food Accornmodation Retail trade Real estate and rental.and leasing Adminishative and waste manfl gemstrt Educational services Arts, ertertainn@t, and recreatiou Accoumodafion Food services and &inking places , i61521,;,:1,;:ii;: ';1t636 : a.4:97 : 2G'12/t9,229 l4;401 Agriculture, R€tai!fiade ,' ' , :' Real estate and rpnUl and leasing Adnrinistrative and waste managcment : Ar,ts, entertainmsDt, strd rEsr€dtiorl 0.053 1.423 1,3/7 , , . ::o;gg6, i, 0.204 , 37.312 0.220 5962 $ placesdrinking Agriculture,3t,293 28,044 .l1,051 Aceommodation Food scrvices aud 14,381 26,99t 1,9'244 Retail trade Real estate and rental and leasing Administative and waste Eanageme,nt Educationa! services Arts, entertainment, and recreation Accomuodaflon Food senices and diiriking placeC 0,01I 0.527 0.274 0.089 0.053 0.055 0.069 0.290 33,333 2i,gei6 Ll,265 261596 18,059 15,086 2',1,682 19,286 $flshingforestry, Page 129 ..; '.,. .,'i IE;17trr 14J80 20,853 1.903 :0,575 0.259 42.404 s.304 14.512 5. About RIMS II Final Demand lvlethodology The following rnaterial has been condensed from ttib RII S II User t{ardbook InUoduction and C,eneral Comments Effegtive planning f.or pullic- a3d private-seitol projects3ld pn)grams at the State and local levels requires a systematic analpis of the economic impacts of these projects and programs on affected regrons. In rum, systematic *dy=ir of economic impacts must account for the intrr-industry relationships within regions becarse these relationships WZIIV determine how regional economies are lilrelyto respond to project and program changes. Thus, regional inptn-ourpur (I-O) muhiplien, which account for inter-industry relatioruhips within regiorx, are ueful ools for conducting regional economic i-pr.t analpis. In the 1970s, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) developed a method for estirnating regional I-O multipliers known as RII!6 (Regional Indtstrial }duldplier Sptem), which was based on the wor{< of Gamick and Dralc. In the 1980s, BEA completed an enhancerrrent of R[}vS, known as RIIVS II (Regional Input-Output }dodefu System), and published a handbook for RIIvts II usen. In 1992, BEA published a second edition of the handbook in which the muhipliers were based on more rrcent data and improved rnethodology. ln 1997, BEA published a thirrd edition of the handbook that provides rnore detail on the we of the muhiplien and tle data sources and methods for estimating thenr. RIIIS II is based on an accounting framework called an I-O table. For each industry, an I-O table shows the industrial distribution of inputs purchased and outpr:ts sold. A typical I-O able in RIIdS tr is derived mainlyfrcm two data sources: BEA's national I-O able, which shows t}re inprn and output structwr of nearly 500 U.S. industries, and BEA's regronal economic accouns, which are rsed to adjust the national I-O table to show a region's industrial structue and trading patten$. Using ryM,S II for rmpact analpis has several advanages. RII$ II muhipliers .T.b. estimated for any region composed of one or more counties and for any industry, or group of industries, in the national I-O table. The accessibiliry of the main data sources for RIIv6 II keeps the cost of estimating regional mylrpli91 rylativ_ely low. Empirigal-tesF show that estimates based on relatively expensive surve)6 and NlvlS Il-based estimates are similar in magnirude. BEA's RIIIS rrnrhiplien can be a cost-effective wayfor analpts to estirnate the economic impacts of changes in a regional economy. Flowever, it is important to keep in mind ttraq liLe all economic impact models, RIh{S provides approximate order-of-rnagninrde estimates of impacts. RIIIS multiplien are best suited for estirmting the impacts of small changes on a rtgional econorry. For some applications, users may want to supplement RIIvIS estimates with inforrmtion they gather from the region undergoing the potential change. To use the muhiplierc for impact analpis effectively, users must provide geogr:aphicdly and indrstrially detailed information on the initial changes in output, earnings, or employment that are associated with the proieo or prcgfirm under snrdy. The muldpliers car then be used to estimate the otal impact of the project or program on regional oulplfi, eamings, and employment. Page 130 RIIvnS II is widely used in both the public and private sector. In the public sector, for example, the Department of Defense uses RIIvS II to estimate the regional impacts of miliary base closings. State transportation departments use NJvIS II to estimate the regional impacu of airpon construction and expansion. In the private-sector, analpm and consultanu use RIIvS II to estimatr the regiond impacts of a variety of projeca, such as the development of shoppng rnalls and sporu stadiums. RIMS II Methodology RIIdS II uses BEA's benchrrark and annual I-O tables for the nation. Since a panicular region rnay not contain all the industries found at the national level, some direct input requirenrents cannot be supplied by that region's indtsries. Input reguirenrcnts that are not produced in a study region are identified using BEA's regional economic accounts. The NldS tr method for estimating regional I-O muhipliers can be viewed as a threestep prccess. In the first step, the producer portion of the national I-O table is made rcgion-specific byusing six- digit NAICS location quotients EA).The LQs estimate the extent to which input requirements are supplied byfirms wfuhin the region. RIIVXS II uses LQ based on two qpes of data: BEA's perond income d"t 0y place of residence) are used to calculate LQ i" the service industries; and BEA's wage-and-salarydata ftyplace of world are used to calculate LQs in the non-service indusuies. In the second step, t}e household row and the household colurnn from the national I-O table are made region-specific. The household row coefficients, which are derived from the value-added row of the national I-O table, are adjrsted to reflect regional earnings leakages resulting from individuals working in the region but residing outside the region. The household column coefficients, vrtr.ich are based on the personal consumption expendiurc colunur of the national I-O able, are aditsted to account for regional consumption lealsages stemming fiom penonal ta:res and savings. In the last step, the Icontief inversion approach is tsed to estirnate muldplien. This inversion approach produces output, eamings, and employrrrent muhipliers, which can be wed to trace the impacts of changes in final dermnd on and indirealyaffected indusries. Accunrcy of RIMS II Empirical evidence suggests that RIIvfi II commonly yields multiplien that are not substantially different in magrdtude from those generated by regional I-O modeli based on relative]y expensive surve)6. For example, a comparis on of 224 indr:sq^specific muhipliers from surveybased tables for C-olorado, IU(ashington, and \7est Virginia indicates that the RIilIS II avemge rrnrhipliers overcstimate the average muhipliers from the suweybased ables by approxirnately 5 percenu For the rnjorrry of individual industry-specific muhipliers within these states, the difference between RIlvlS II and surveybased muhiplien is less than 10 percent. In addition, RlJvlS II and survey muhiplien show statistically similar distributions of affected industries. Advantages of RIMS II There are numerous advantages to rsing RIMS II. Fint" the accessibilicy of the main &ta sources makes it possible rc estimate regional multipliers without conducting relatively e4pensive survq6. Second, the level of industrial detail used in RM II helps avoid aggregation errors, which often occur when indr:stries are cornbined. Third, RIItrS II mghiplien gan be compared across areas because .h.y * based on a consistent set of estimatihg procedures nationwide. Fourth, RIIvIS II Pagc l3l muhipliers are updated to reflect the rrost recent local-area wage-and-salary and penonal income data- Orrcrview of Diffe rc nt Muhiplien RII/S II provides users with five qpes of muhipliers: final derrnnd nnrltiplien for output, for eamings, and for employrnent; and direct-effect multiplien for earning;s and for employrnern. These muhiplien masure the economic impact of a change in final demand, in eamings, or in employment on a region's economy. The final demand multipliers for output are the basic multipliers from which all other RIIr6 II multipliers are derived. In this table, each column entry indicates t}e change in output in each row indrstrythat results from a $1 change in final demand in the column industry The impact on each row industry is calculated by muhiplying the final denrand change in the colurnn industry by th. muhiplier for each row. The total impact on regional outpw is calcuhted by muhiplying the final demand change in the column indusry by the sum of all the multiplien for each rcw except the household row. RII/$ II provides two types of multipliers for estirnating *re impacts demand multiplien and direct effect muhiplien. These muhiplien final derrnnd output rrnrltipliers. of changes on eamings: final are derived frcm tJre abk of The final demand multiplien for eamings can be ued if data on final denrand changes arc available. In the final dernand earnings muhiplier able, each column entry indicates the change in eamings in each row industrytlut resufts fiom a $1 change in final demand in the column indrstry. The impaa on each row industry is cahulated bymuhiplying the final demand change in the column industryby the rrnrltipliers for each row. The total impact on regional eaminp is calculated by muhiplying the final denrand change in the column industry by the sum of the multipliers for each row. E mployme rt Multiplie rs RIIIS II provides two t)?es of muhiplien for estirnating the final demard muhiplien and direct effect rnuldpliers. These of final demand output muhipliers. impacts of changes on employment: muhipliers are derived from the uble The final denrand rrnrltiplien for employment can be used if the data on final denrand changes are available . In the final demand employment multiplier table, each column entry indicates the change in employnrent in each row industry that results from a $1 million change in final denrand in the column hdutry. The impact on each row industry is calculated by nrultiplying the final demand change in the column industry by the muhiplier for each row. The mtal impaa on regiond employnrcnt is calculated by rrnrltiplying the final demand change h the column indr:stry by the sum of the multipliers for each row. The direct effect muldplien for enrployment can be used if the data on the initial changes in employrrrnt by indrstry are available. In the dircct effea employnrnt muhiplier table, each entry indicates the total.change in employment in the region that resula from a change of one job in the row industry. The total impact on regional employrnent is calculated by multiplying the initial change in employment in the row industry bythe multiplier for the row. Page 132 Choosing a Multiplie The choice of multiplier for estimating the impact of a project on output, earnings, and employment depends on the availabfiry of estimates of the initial changes in find demand, earnings, and employment. If the estimates of the initial changes in all three meas.res are available, the RINE II user can select any of the RINTS II multipliers. In theory all the impact estirnates should be consistent. If t}re available e stimates are limited to initial changes in final dermnd, the user can select a final demand multiplier for impact estfunatiorL If the available estirmtes are limited to initial changes in earnings or employmeff, the user can select a direct effect multiplier. The EB5 rcgulations provide that "jobs created indirectly'' by a regional center- affiliated business may be credited to foreign investors who made a qualifying investment in the business. To show this job creation, "reasonable" methodologies may be used. 8 CFRS204.6(*XZ). The RIIv{.S il inpr*/output model has been recognized by the USCIS as an acceptable methodology for showing job creation resulting from a rcgional center- affiliated investrnent project" l'age 133