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HomeMy WebLinkAbout2021_9_15 KGould_MandateFrom:Kincaid Gould To:Board of Health; aberry@co.clallam.wa.us; aunthank@co.clallam.wa.us; Kate Dean; Heidi Eisenhour; GregBrotherton Subject:Concern With Health Order and Case Information Requests Date:Wednesday, September 15, 2021 4:57:03 PM CAUTION: This email originated from outside your organization. Exercise caution when opening attachments or clicking links, especially from unknown senders. Dear Dr. Berry and Jefferson County Board of Health, I am writing to express my deep concern with Dr Berry’s order requiring all restaurants andbars to require proof of vaccination from their patrons. I talked about this issue at the lastCounty Commissioners Meeting, where I feel like my concerns were not addressed. TheCommissioners (other than Greg Brotherton, who disappointingly “prepared” his “response”to the public comments before hearing them, and didn’t even make an effort to address whatanybody present had said) said that this was not a decision about politics, but rather aboutscientific data. I respect that, but believe that ethics are just as important to consider in such adecision. Instead of rehashing everything I said at the last meeting, though, I will providesome new information. Most critically, the vaccines are not as effective as the media has been reporting. On April 20,2021, an article called “COVID-19 vaccine efficacy and effectiveness—the elephant (not) inthe room” was published in the highly respected medical journal The Lancet. If you haven’tread this article, I highly recommend doing so. It can be found here:https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(21)00069-0/fulltext Here’s my summary of what this article details. Please let me know if my interpretation isincorrect, and if so, how. The article says that there are three main numbers to be concerned with. One of those isAbsolute Risk Reduction (ARR). To understand this statistic, consider this simple example. 200 people are split into two groups of 100 people each for a vaccine trial. Of the 100 peoplein the vaccinated (experimental) group, 1 person, or 1% of the people in the group, catchCOVID. Of the 100 people in the unvaccinated (control) group, 2 people, or 2% of the peoplein the group, catch COVID. The Absolute Risk Reduction is calculated by simply subtractingthese two percentages. 2%-1%=1%. So the Absolute Risk Reduction is 1%. The second number is the Number Needed to Vaccinate (NNV), which tells us how manypeople need to be vaccinated in order to prevent one person from catching the disease. Thisnumber is obtained by finding the inverse of the Absolute Risk Reduction (i.e., by dividing 1by the ARR, represented as a decimal). Continuing with the previous example, the NNVwould be 1/0.01, which equals 100. (This makes sense, because 100 people were treated in theexperimental (vaccinated) group and 1 fewer person than in the control (unvaccinated) groupcaught the virus. The third and final number is the Relative Risk Reduction. To calculate this number, theRelative Risk must first be calculated by dividing the proportion of negative outcomes (here,positive cases) in the experimental group by the proportion of negative outcomes in the controlgroup. The Relative Risk Reduction is obtained by subtracting this value from 1. For example,in our example above, the Relative Risk is equal to 0.01/0.02, or 0.5. This number is thensubtracted from 1 to give a Relative Risk Reduction of 0.5, or 50%. The Relative Risk Reduction is by no means an unimportant number, but it fails to factor in how dangerous a disease is, how dangerous it is to the community as a whole; it only revealsthe difference in the subset of people who have caught the disease. When it’s not accompaniedby any other statistical information (such as ARR or NNV), the number doesn’t really tell youanything about how effective the treatment is. To illustrate my point, we can consider a scenario with 2,000,000 test participants divided intotwo groups of 1,000,000 each. If 1 vaccinated individual catches the virus, and 2 unvaccinatedindividuals catch the virus, that will work out to an Absolute Risk Reduction of (2/1,000,000)– (1/1,000,000), or 0.000001, or 0.0001% (one ten-thousandth of a percent). The NumberNeeded to Vaccinate is 1,000,000. However, the Relative Risk Reduction stays at 50%. Now let’s look at the data for Pfizer’s vaccine, as it’s the only one that has been “FDAapproved” (and is therefore the only one that can legally be administered). According toPfizer’s data (and Pfizer has been known to mess with data and has a long history of briberyand other misconduct), the Relative Risk Reduction for their vaccine is what sounds to be animpressive 95%. However, this number alone doesn’t give us a full picture of how “effective” their vaccine is.If we look at the Absolute Risk Reduction, we find a completely different number: 0.84%.Using this number, we can calculate the NNV to be a staggering 119 people. That means that119 people need to be given a vaccine in order to prevent 1 additional case of COVID-19; thevaccine will simply not (positively) effect the other 118 individuals. (On the other hand, all ofthose people will be subject to any of the items on the long and growing list of side effects thatthese vaccines can have, ranging from myocarditis to Guillain-Barré Syndrome to death.These are NOT minor conditions.) Unfortunately, the 95% efficacy figure is the only one that is reported in the main streammedia, by the government, on social media…. Without knowing these other two figures, thereis absolutely know way that someone can give informed consent. If informed consent cannotbe given, people cannot be required to take the shot. There is much more information and data on these vaccines (and other ‘preventive’ measures,such as masks) that show how ineffective and unnecessary they really are. (Of course, thesearticles shouldn’t be required to see this. It’s as clear as day. After all, if social distancingreally did work, why did we have to mask up? If masking up worked, why did people have toget vaccinated? If getting vaccinated worked, why does everybody still have to social distanceand wear a mask? There is no logic in this.) But while the data is dubious for the case of mandating vaccinations, the ethics behind forcinga vaccination upon an unwilling individual are nonexistent. As I said at the lastCommissioners meeting, Dr Berry’s order is coercive. It is extremely unethical (if not illegal)to force somebody to take an unproven and experimental vaccine in order to do something assimple as go to a restaurant. (Seeing signs that say “Vaccinated Only” can’t help but make methink of America’s racist past and signs that read “Whites Only.” You may feel differently, butthis is how I feel, and it is extremely unnerving and frightening.) Additionally, I have several requests for the data that is being reported for Jefferson County.In order for people to make informed choices about injecting themselves with experimentalvaccines which haven’t even been around for a full year yet, they need to have access to all ofthe data. Data should not be presented misleadingly to further some covert agenda (political orotherwise). Look at the data that is reported on this page: https://www.co.jefferson.wa.us/1466/Case-Information First, I’d like to know why there’s data for “Percent of cases among not fully vaccinated individuals since 2/1/2021, updated Mondays” and “Percent of cases among fully vaccinatedindividuals since 2/1/2021, updated Mondays.” More specifically, why is the date 2/1/2021the starting point for this metric? Obviously you have to start somewhere, but what is thesignificance with this date? Why not show a different date range, such as the past month orpast two weeks, as is shown for other statistics? My main concern here, is that most peoplewere not vaccinated against COVID-19 on that date. I remember that I (as an adult) wasn’teven eligible to receive a shot until mid-April. Sure, some people were getting them early on,but that was a very small number of people. Furthermore, even for the people who receivedtheir first vaccine in February, they wouldn’t even be considered ‘fully vaccinated’ untilsometime in March. In short, this precise figure seems misleading, and this seems to beconfirmed by the fact that the gap between the two statistics has been dwindling over the pastweeks (despite more and more people getting vaccinated). In the interest of making informedchoices, this data (which to me is extremely important) should be made visible to the public. Ifthese statistics are updated every week, they are obviously readily available; instead ofreporting the percentage of male/female cases (which seems to be split pretty evenly), why notinclude this information, which is much more informative? Second, I’d like to know more about the individuals who have died from COVID-19. As ofmy writing this comment (9/15/2021), the dashboard says that 13 people have died. However,no additional information is given. Did these people have underlying medical conditions orother comorbidities? How old were they? Were they fully vaccinated? In a recent article fromthe Port Townsend Leader (https://www.ptleader.com/stories/five-more-covid-19-deaths-reported-in-jefferson-county,77162), five Jefferson County residents are described as havingdied from COVID-19. Dr. Berry is quoted as saying “They were frail and unable to fullyrespond to their vaccines.” How does Dr. Berry know this? Does this mean that all people whoare old or frail are unable to fully respond to their vaccines? If so, does it make sense to givethese people booster shots, especially considering the possible (lethal) side effects related tothese vaccines? How can Dr. Berry categorically rule out that the vaccines had any possibleconnection to the deaths? Third, I’d like to know just what exactly counts as a COVID death. In the recently releasedbook A State of Fear, British investigative journalist Laura Dodsworth examines how the UKgovernment was able to use fear as a weapon in order to control the UK population. There aremany parallels with what has been happening in the US, and I think it’s a fascinating read andwell worth everybody on this board’s time. In the book, Dodsworth notes that “Under PublicHealth England’s original system, a Covid death was anyone who tested positive for Covidand then died of anything at any time. So, if someone was run over by a bus, their death wouldbe counted as a ‘Covid death’ if they had tested positive for Covid at any point in the past”(152). Is the system for counting COVID deaths similar in Jefferson County? If it’s not now,was it at any point in the past? If a hypothetical person dies while fighting pneumonia andCOVID, how is the cause of death listed? Have any COVID deaths in Jefferson County beenchanged at a later date (e.g., originally listed as a COVID death, but later changed to a fludeath)? Similarly, what counts as a vaccine death? Is it even possible to record vaccine deaths? Fourth, I’d like to know more about which variants have been at play in Jefferson County.Every day seems to bring some doom and gloom about the Delta variant. Just how active hasthat variant been in Jefferson County? What percentage of cases have been caused by thatvariant? Including information like this on the website linked earlier would certainly behelpful. Fifth, I’d like to draw your attention to Governor Inslee’s “emergency proclamationmandating that most state executive branch employees and on-site contractors and volunteers,along with public and private health care and long-term care workers, must be fully vaccinatedagainst COVID-19 by October 18.” In a time when the Delta variant is surging across thecountry and in Jefferson County (or so we’re told; the data asked for in the above paragraphmight show otherwise), does it really make sense to lay off health care workers? If our hospitals are being ‘overwhelmed,’ wouldn’t it be best to have as many people as possiblepresent to help? What percentage of health care workers have been fully vaccinated againstCOVID-19? Have any of these workers been laid off recently? Have any been fired or haveany of them quit specifically because they refuse to get the COVID-19 vaccine? These peoplehelped people through the pandemic last year when no vaccine was available (and they werethus necessarily unvaccinated). How can getting rid of them now really help? And sixth and finally (for now), I’d like to ask a few questions about the vaccine’s efficacy.We have seen that the vaccines do not confer immunity and do not prevent spread of thedisease. Numerous outbreaks have occurred in settings where a vast majority of those infectedwere vaccinated individuals (for a huge example, look at Israel). So when somebody takes thevaccine, they are not guaranteed to be immune from the virus, nor can they be sure that theywill not be able to spread the virus to others. (On a side note, if the vaccines simply reducesymptoms, couldn’t this be seen as a bad thing? After all, isn’t asymptomatic spread the mostdangerous thing about this virus? A vaccinated individual with asymptomatic ‘breakthrough’COVID could easily infect many other people if the virus is super contagious and they thinkthemselves immune.) However, the same can be said of an unvaccinated individual. There isno guarantee that they will catch the virus or that they will spread it to anybody else. (And ifthese people are more likely to have symptoms, they are more likely to stay away from otherpeople and less likely to spread the virus to others.) We are in troubling times. I would like to believe that a vaccine is a cure-all panacea to get usback to pre-pandemic life. But the questions I have raised above (among other concerns, suchas how the vaccine companies have no liability for vaccine side effects and how media isundergoing mass censorship (even on a local level)) prevent me from rushing off to take thevaccine. There are many things that still don’t make sense and still need time to play out. You are our public servants. You must listen to us and look at the data in this situation. Ifyou’re goal is to get more people vaccinated, you need to divulge more data and answer ourquestions. Transparency is never a bad choice. If the data matches what is being reported andhas not been used misleadingly, then there should be no problem in revealing it, and in fact itshould be a good strategy for you to let us see this data, as it would probably convince moreskeptical people to get vaccinated. On the other hand, if the data does not match what has beenreported, it is your duty to let us, the people you are serving, know. Hiding this data from thepublic could lead to the potential loss of many lives unnecessarily. I can guarantee right nowthat I will not be getting a COVID shot if the requested information is not released. While it may be hard to answer all of these questions, I would value a reply. I have not citedanything that can easily be labeled as misinformation (and if I have, please let me know what).On the contrary, I have cited one article from The Lancet which uses data provided by thevaccine companies themselves, briefly touched on how unethical Dr Berry’s order is, andraised a series of questions. I understand that you are all busy people with many things to do.But these are important questions with important answers. When you start forcing people totake an experimental shot that they can die from, you must have a very strong confidence inwhat you’re doing. Thank you for taking the time to read this comment, Sincerely, Kincaid Gould Sent with ProtonMail Secure Email.