HomeMy WebLinkAbout2022_01_07 KGould_Omicron variantFrom:Kincaid Gould
To:Board of Health; jeffbocc
Subject:Stricter Mandate, Please
Date:Friday, January 7, 2022 1:47:34 PM
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Dear BOH and BOCC,
Omicron has apparently really taken off with infections here in Jefferson County (combined with
an increase in testing). Data out of JCPH this week indicates some 192 new positive tests. Ofthose 192, we had 41 (21.4%) returned by residents who were not fully vaccinated and 151 from
residents who were fully vaccinated (78.6%). Since August of 2021, this changes the numbers to
show 48.6% of all positive tests have come from the not fully vaccinated versus 51.4% from the
fully vaccinated (that's a change from 54.1% of cases in the not fully vaccinated versus 45.9% in
the fully vaccinated last week, by the way). This also gets down to a maximum of 43.3% of cases
in the not fully vaccinated and 56.7% in the fully vaccinated since August if you only include
people who were eligible for vaccination (I've talked about this in a previous email--those numbers
are overestimates (possibly large overestimates) because of the way JCPH reports their data).
Also note that JCPH's percentages shifted by a huge margin today (they measure since
02/01/2021); 67.39% among the unvaccinated last week down to 62.19% this week.
It would seem that the omicron variant is easily evading those with full vaccination (granted, this
data doesn't mention how many people were boosted.) Seeing as that's the case, and that,
according to the method Dr. Berry has been using to analyze the data (i.e., not taking into
account what percentage of those being tested are not/fully vaccinated), this indicates that the
omicron variant is affecting those who are fully vaccinated more than those who are not fully
vaccinated, might it be time to consider dropping the discriminatory vaccine passport system? Do
we consider this and the huge rise in cases that haven't been accompanied by any new deaths (!)
and have seen few new hospitalizations (which may have been from delta) and think that maybe
it's time to reassess the situation? Or is the Health Officer going to be given the green light to one-
up herself and only "give permission to eat" to those who have been boosted, effectively closing
restaurants and bars to over 20% of the population which hasn't received a single shot yet for at
least 6-7 months, and the many more who aren't going to opt to get boosted? I'm sure everyone
would love that...
Kincaid
Data Table 2
Date # OfNew
Cases
# Of New CasesAmong Not
Fully Vaccinated
% Of New CasesAmong Not
Fully Vaccinated
# Of New CasesAmong Fully
Vaccinated
% Of New CasesAmong Fully
Vaccinated
08/04/2021 -----
08/09/2021 29 11 37.9%18 62.1%
08/16/2021 43 19 44.2%24 55.8%
08/23/2021 43 20 46.5%23 53.5%
08/30/2021 45 27 60.0%18 40.0%
09/07/2021 120 63 52.5%57 47.5%
09/13/2021 66 53 80.3%13 19.7%
09/20/2021 61 38 62.3%23 37.7%
09/27/2021 45 27 60.0%18 40.0%
10/01/2021 28 4 14.3%24 85.7%
10/08/2021 36 25 69.4%11 30.6%
10/15/2021 23 15 65.2%8 34.8%
10/22/2021 58 42 72.4%16 27.6%
10/29/2021 26 17 65.4%9 34.6%
11/05/2021 37 22 59.5%15 40.5%
11/12/2021 32 22 68.75%10 31.25%
11/19/2021 37 7 18.9%30 81.1%
12/3/2021 68 27 39.7%41 60.3%
12/10/2021 29 22 75.9%7 24.1%
12/17/2021 28 15 53.6%13 46.4%
12/23/2021 50 11 22.0%39 78.0%
12/30/2021 79 45 57.0%34 43.0%
01/07/2022 192 41 21.4%151 78.6%
TOTAL 1147 558 48.6%589 51.4%