HomeMy WebLinkAbout017 96STATE OF WASHINGTON
County of Jefferson
IN THE MATTER OF A RESOLUTION }
ADOPTING A JOINT COUNTY AND CITY }
OF PORT TOWNSEND GROWTH }
MANAGEMENT PLANNING POPULATION }
PROJECTION, CONSISTENT WITH THE }
PROVISIONS OF COUNTY-WIDE }
PLANNING POLICY 1.1 }
Resolution No.
17-96
~hereas, Jefferson County and the City of Port Townsend jointly adopted a County-Wide
Planning Policy, consistent with the Growth Management Act RCW 36.70A), on December 21,
1992; and,
Whereas, County-Wide Planning Policy 1.1 requires the County and City to jointly prepare a ten,
twenty and fifty year regional population forecast for growth management planning purposes; and,
Whereas, Jefferson County began the preparation of such a forecast in 1992, and in July 1993
proposed a ten and twenty year forecast and distribution be jointly adopted; and,
Whereas, Agreement on a joint population projection was not reached between Jefferson County
and the City of Port Townsend prior to the County adopting Ordinance No. 02-0110-94
designating Port Townsend, the Tri-Area and Port Ludlow as Interim Urban Growth Areas; and,
Whereas, in finding Ordinance No. 02-0110-94 to be out of compliance with the Growth
Management Act (GMA) in August of 1994, the Western Washington Growth Management
Heatings Board stated that the requirement of the County-Wide Planning policies for a jointly
developed population forecast must be fulfilled; and,
~2hereas, shortly thereafter, the County agreed to accept the population projection and
distribution produced by Dr. Tim Watterson, a consultant originally retained by the City of Port
Townsend; and,
Whereas, Dr. Watterson produced a recommended regional population projection and distribution
in a report released in December of 1994; and,
~Irhereas, this population projection and distribution was not adopted by the Joint Growth
Management Steering Committee due to reservations as to its applicability being expressed by the
City of Port Townsend; and,
~hereas, the County responded to these concerns by retaining Dr. Watterson to produce an
amended projection and distribution that no longer assumed designation of the Tri-Area as an
UGA; and,
Whereas, the Joint Growth Management Steering Committee did not agree on adoption of the
recommendations contained with this amended report; and,
14/'hereas, in January 1995, Jefferson County adopted Ordinance No. 01-0117-95, redesignating
Port Ludlow as an Interim Urban Growth Area and allocating a 20 year population increase of
2,500 people to the IUGA; and,
[4/'hereas, the City of Port Townsend objected to such an allocation in a letter dated January 9,
1995 and this letter was used by the Western Washington Growth Management Hearings Board
in Case No. 95-2-0066 (Albert Marshall Loomis IV. vs Jefferson County) to remind the County
of the need to use a jointly developed population projection; and,
l, Fhereas, the County responded to this objection and the Hearing Board decision by
commissioning an amended projection and distribution from Dr. Watterson that identified only the
City of Port Townsend as an UGA; and,
142hereas, this amended report was completed by Dr. Watterson in October 1995; and,
I42hereas, Jefferson County Staff'began meeting with City of Port Townsend staffin September
1995 to discuss a range of issues that included population and amendment of the County-Wide
Planning Policies to reflect the Western Washington Growth Management Hearings Board
(I)UGA decisions relating to Jefferson County; and,
~'hereas, no discernable progress had been made on these issues by December 31, 1995; and,
14/'hereas, The City of Port Townsend issued its draft Comprehensive Plan on January 10, 1996
without the required agreement being reached with Jefferson County on population projection and
distribution; and,
I4"hereas, the Board of County Commissioners unanimously agreed that such an action was
unacceptable and directed staff to assign the highest priority to reaching agreement with the City
of Port Townsend on Population; and,
14/hereas, County and City staffmet twice in January 1996 and once in February 1996 to
negotiate a jointly acceptable population projection and distribution; and,
14,~hereas, the joint staff meeting held on February 2, 1996 resulted in agreement being reached on
a possible population projection and distribution; and,
~'hereas, the figures and approach agreed by City and County staff on February 2nd were
formalized by City of Port Townsend staff in a Summary of Understanding dated February 6,
1996; and,
l,l,'hereas, the population projections and distribution contained within this resolution are identical
to those found within the February 6 Summary of Understanding; and,
Whereas, the total population figure to be adopted by the County falls within the range adopted
2
vo,_ 22
by the Washington State Office of Financial Management for Jefferson County, as required under
Chapter 43.62.035 RCW;
NOW THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED, that the following measures be adopted by Jefferson
County:
The Revised Medium Population Projection, drawn from the January 1995 'Supplement' to
the Population Forecast for Jefferson County and the City of Port Townsend: Final
Report, prepared by the Watterson West Group, Inc., shall be extended to the year 2016
and used as the joint regional population forecast for growth management planning
purposes
Using methodology devised by the City of Port Townsend, the Revised Medium
Population Projection for Jefferson County for the year 2016 is projected to be 39,936
people.
For GMA planning purposes the estimated 1996 total population for Jefferson County
shall be 25,756.
The 1996 (base year) population estimate for the City of Port Townsend shall be 8,366
for GMA planning purposes.
The urban population growth allocation for the City of Port Townsend over the 20 year
planning period 1996 - 2016 shall be 5,510 additional residents.
The 1996 (base year) population estimate for the Port Ludlow/Oak Bay Planning Area
shall be 1,985 people.
The 'base year' population for that portion of the Port Ludlow/Oak Bay Planning Area
formerly designated as an IUGA is 1,326 people.
The County may identi~ this area for further study and possible designation as an Urban
Growth Area or Master Planned Resort within its forthcoming Comprehensive Plan.
A 20 year urban population allocation of 2,624 additional residents is hereby assigned to
this area as a population reserve, with such an allocation becoming final in the event the
County designates this part of the Port Ludlow/Oak Bay Planning Area an Urban Growth
Area or Master Planned Resort.
10.
The remainder of the Port Ludlow/Oak Bay Planning Area shall receive a level of
population growth for the 20 year planning period that is consistent with rural
designation.
11.
All other areas of the unincorporated County shall be assigned population growth in
accordance with the methodology used by the Watterson West Group in their January
1995 Supplemental Report and the City of Port Townsend in their Summary of
vo,_ 22
Understanding dated February 6, 1996. A full population distribution for Jefferson County
using the above figures and methodology is provided as 'Attachment A' to this resolution
and the Port Townsend Summary of Understanding is included as 'Attachment B'.
12.
The 10 (ten) year joint population projection shall be calculated using the methodology
identified in #11, above.
13.
The 50 year Regional Population Forecast be adopted using the figures proposed in
Sections X. and XI. of the Port Townsend Summary of Understanding.
BE IT FURTHER RESOLVED, that the County request the City of Port Townsend to adopt
these figures by no later than February 29, 1996, in order to allow the production and adoption of
GMA Comprehensive Plans for both jurisdictions to proceed in a coordinated manner.
Approved andAdopted this 14th day of February, 1996.
SEAL:
ATTEST:
Lorna L. Delaney
Clerk of the Board
Y
Robert Hinton, Member
51en Hunting~or~, Memb.~//
APPROVED AS TO FORM
Paul E. Mcllrath
Chief Deputy Prosecutor
4
ATTAC~IMENT 'B'
.... ,-, ...... $OIJNT,
.!_ANI'iING F]~P~.~T~,~c'. r
SUMMARY OF UNDERSTANDING:
Regarding ,Joint Population Projection & Allocations
Selection of 20 Year Joint Regional Population Forecast:
The Revised Medium Population Projection, drawn from the February l, 1995 "Addendum" to
the Population Forecast for Jefferson County and the CiW of Port Townsend: Final Report,
prepared by the Watterson West Group, Inc., will be extended to the year 2016, and used as
the joint regional population forecast for growth management planning purposes
Attachment "A" for forecast extension methodology, and Attachment "B" for population
growth estimates by Planning Area).
When extended to the year 2016, the Revised Medium Population Projection for Seffersen
County is projected to be 39,396.
The Revised Medium Population Projection falls within the population range adopted by the
Washington State Office of Financial Management for Jefferson County, as required under
Chapter 43.62.035 RCW.t
20 Year Projected Population Growth - County-Wide:
1. The 1996 "base year" population estimate for Jefferson County is 25,756.a
Thus, Jefferson County's population is projected to grow by approximately 13,640 persons over
the 20 year planning period (i.e., 39,396 - 25,756 -, 13,640).
Port Townsend - 1996 Estimated Population & 20 Year Urban Population
Allocation:
The 1996 "base year" population estimate for the City of Port Townsend is 8,366 (i.e., 32.48%
of the County's total population).
Port Townsend's urban population allocation for the 20 year pla,ning period (f.e., 1996 through
2016) is 5,510 additional residents, or 40.40% of the projected County-wide population growth
Adopted on December 29. 1995. the C-towth Management Act (OMA) Population Projections adopted for .feffea~on County for the
year 2016 are as follows: !) CFM Low 5eries - 38.086 (+ 12.130 over the County's 1996 estimated populntion); 2) CFM Medium
Series. 41.579 (+ 15.8'23 over the County's 1996 estimated population); and 3) 45.964 (+ 20.208 over ~he County's 1996
estimated population). · - : .
All 1996 "base year" population estimates are drmam firom the October 31. 1995 "Addendum" to the ]~opulnlj~xt Fo~nmat for
J~l~nl Cmmtv and the CKv of Port Townsend: Final Re~ort. The rationale for suppott~g the use of Rtis document as a source
for "ba~e yesf' population estimates is as follows: I) Since the repeal of Ordinance No. 01-0117-95 in October 1995, Potx
Towasmd has existed as the only interim m~oan ~rowth area (XUGA) in .fefferson Cmmty. 2) in October of 1995. Seffe~on
Cmmty contracted with the Watterson West Group. ln~.. to prepa'e ~he Addendum to the Pcn~ul~tion Foreceat for ~effet~n ¢oon~
~~I~L~. which was base~ upon the asaumption that only Po~t Townsend would be deaignated an UGA. 3) The
Addmdum provides projected population es~nates fo~ the year 1996 for all plmnin$ areas within Jefferson Cotmty. in¢ludin$ the
Pcnt Townsend md Port Ludlow/Onk Bay Plmnin$ Arena. 4) Because 1996 CFM 'current actual' estimates of population are not
y~ available for ~effers~ County and the City of Port Townsend. the populnfion estimntes from the Addendum a~e an appropriate
amaro, for 1996 'ba~ yent' populati~ estimntes.
SUMMARY OF
UNDERSTANDING
FEBRUARY 6, [996
IV.
Thus, upon initial adoption, Port Townsend's Comprehensive Plan will be designed to
accommodate a population of 13,876 by the end o£ the 2_0 year planning period (t.e., 8,366 ~-
5,510 = 13,876, or 35.22% of the County's total projected population).
Port Ludlow Planning Status:
Currently, Port Ludlow lies within the "rural" area of unincorporated Jefferson County, and is
not subject to any special planning designation.
Consistent with the County-Wide Planning Policy for Jefferson County (CWPP), Port Ludlow
is considered as "'being characterized by urban growth' for the purpose of designating UGAs in
the unincorporated County" (CWPP # 1.4).
Under tho Growth Management Act (GMA), "master planned resorts" may be permitted which
constitute urban growth outside of urban growth areas (UGAs). A master planned resort
(MPR) means a serf contained and fully integrated planned unit development meeting the
requirements of Chapter 36.70A.360 RCW, as may be amended.
Although not currently designated as a MPR, Port Ludlow' will be designated as a MPR or
other appropriate urban planning designation consistent with the OMA (e.g., UGA) upon initial
adoption of Jefferson County's Comprehensive Plan.
1996 Estimated Population of the Port Ludlow/Oak Bay Planning Area & 20
Year Urban-Population Allocation to the Port Ludlow MPR:
The 1996 "base year" population estimate for tho entire Port Ludlow/Oak Bay Planning Area is
1,985 (i.e., 7.71% of the County's total population).
The 1996 "base year" populatio~ estimate for "urbanized''s portion of the Port Ludlow/Oak Bay
Planning Area is 1,3264 (i.e., 5.15% of the County's total population).
The projected population for tho entire Port Ludlow/Oak Bay Planning Area at the end of the
20 year planning period in 2016 is 4,901. Thus, the projected 20 year population growth for
tho entire Port Ludlow/Oak Bay Planning Area is 2,916 additional persons (i.e., 4,901 - 1,985
= 2,916 additional persons, or 21.38% of tho projected County-wide population growth).
"Urb~iTed" means that portion of the Plmmmg Area that will be designated as either a master pimmed resort (IV[PR) or other
appropriate urban phmnh~g designation consistent with the (}MA (e.g., UGA) upon initial adoption of Jefferson County's
Comprehensive Phm.
In November, 1994, Jefferson County Planning Staff conducted an analysis of the Jefferson County Assessor's Data Base in order
to identify the population within the 'urbanized" portion of the Port Ludlow/Oak Bay Planning Area. That analysis revealed that
approximately 1,180, or 66.78% of all 1,767 persons estimated to reside within the Planning Area lived within "urbanized' areas.
Aslmming this 'urbanized" vcrsa~ rural percentage (i.e., 66.78%) remains constant, the 1996 or "base year" population estimate for
th,- "urbmized" portion of the Plmming Area is 1,326 (i.e., 66.78°,4 of 1,985). For additional information regarding the source for
1996 "base year" population estimates, please refer to foolaote #2.
SUMMARY OF
UNDERSTANDING 2
FEBRUARY 6, 1996
VII
The 20 year urban population allocation for the Port Ludlow MPR is 90% of the projected
population growth for the entire Port Ludlow/Oak Bay Planning Area, or 2,624 additional
residents (t'.e., 90% of 2,916 = 2,624 additional persons, or 19.24% of the projected County-
wide population growth).
Thus, upon initial adoption, Jefferson County's Comprehensive Plan will be designed to
accommodate a Port Ludlow MPR population of 3,950 residents by the end of the 20 year
planning period (i.e., 1,326 + 2,624 -- 3,950, or 10.03% of the County's total projected
population).
20 Year Rural Population AHocation:
The I996 "base year" population estimate for rural areas~ is I6,064 (i.e., 62.37% of the
County's total population).
Rural areas of unincorporated Jefferson County will bo allocated that portion of tho projected
population growth not allocated to tho City of Port Townsend, or tho Port Ludlow MPR.
The 20 year rural area population allocation, including the allocation to the Tri-Area Planning
Area, will be 5,506 additional residents (i.e., 13,640 - the Port Townsend allocation of 5,510 =
8,130; 8,130 - the Port Ludlow MPR allocation of 2,624 = 5,506, or 40.36% of the projected
County-wide population growth).
Thus, upon initial adoption, Jefferson County's Comprehensive Plan will be designed to
accommodate a rural population of 21,570 residents by the end of tho 20 year planning period
(i.e., 16,064 + 5,506 = 21,570, or 54.75% of tho County's total projected population).
Tri-Area Planning Status:
Currently, all portions of the Tri-Aroa Planning Area lie within the "rural" area of
unincorporated Jefferson County, and are not subject to any special planning designation.
However, consistent with tho Coun _ty-Wide Planning Policy for Jefferson County (CWPP), the
Tri-Area continues to be considered as "'being characterized by urban growth' for the purpose
of designating UGAs in tho unincorporated County" (CWPP # 1.4).
Upon initial adoption of Jefferson County's Comprehensive Plan, all portions of the Tri-Area
Planning Area will be designated "rural," in order to promote appropriate densities, intensities
and uses.
Although initially designated as "rural," Jefferson County may in future amend its
Comprehensive Plan to designate portions of the Tri-Area Planning Area as a UGA or other
appropriate planning designation consistent with adopted state and local law and policy, as may
be amended.
R is acknowledged that 'rural" areas of unincorporated Jefferson County currently include all areas not designated as interim urbm
growth areas (IUG. Aa), and that Port Tow~lsend is the County's only existing R/GA. Nevertheless, for purposes of determining the
'base year" population estimate for 'rural" areas of Jefferson County, the population within the "urb~mized" poRion of the Po~t
Ludlow/Oak Bay Plmming Area is counted as existing "urb:m" rather thml "rural" population.
SUMMARY OF
UNDERSTANDING
FEBRUARY 6, 1996
VIii. 1996 Estimated Population & 20 Year Rural Population Allocation to the Tri-
Area Planning Area:
The 1996 "base year" population estimate for the Tri-Area Planning Area is 4,324~ (i.e.,
16.79% of the County's total population).
The projeoted population for the Tri-Area Planning Area at the end of the 20 year planning
period in 2016 is 5,489.
Thus, the projected 20 yea~ population growth for the Tri-Area Planning Area is 1,165
additional persons (i.e., 5,489 - 4,324 = 1,165 additional persons, or 8.54% of the projected
County-wide population growth, and 21.16% of the growth allocated to rural areas). This
allocation assumes a "rural" designation for the Tri-Area Planning Area, which may change
with future amendments to Jefferson County's Comprehensive Plan.
IX. Allocation & Urban/Rural Disaggregation - Summary
Table # 1 on page 5 provides summary information regarding the 20 year population allocations to the Port
Townsend UGA, and the Port Ludlow MPR, and the remaining rural areas of unincorporated Jefferson County,
including the TH-Area rural Planning Area.
Table #2 on page 5 provides summary information regarding the current and future urban/rural population
disaggregation, assuming Port Townsend is designated an UGA, and Port Ludlow is designated a MPR (or other
appropriate planning designation consistent with the GMA).
s Please refer to foomote//2 t'or information regarding the source of 1996 "base year" population estimates.
SUMMARY OF
UNDERSTANDING 4 FEBRUARY 6, [996
TABLE #1: PORT TOWNSEND UGA, PORT LUDLOW MPR,
& RURAL AREA 20 YEAR POPULATION ALLOCATIONS
AREA ESTIMATED 1996 POPULATION PROJECTED 2016
POPULATION BASE ALLOCATION POPULATION
URBAN AREAS 9,692 +8,134 17,826
(aggregate) (37.63% of County's 1996 (59.63% of projected (45.25% of County's
estimated population) Coonty-wide growth) total projected population)
Port Townsend 8,366 + 5,510 13,876
UGA (32.48% of County's 1996 (40.40% of projected (35.22% of County's
estimated population) County-wide growth) total projected population)
Port Ludlow 1,326 +2,624 3,950
MPR (5.15% of County's 1996 (19.24% of projected (10.03% of County's
estimated population) County-wide growth) total projected population)
RURAL AREAS 16,064 +5,$06 21~70
(aggregate) (62.37% of County's 1996 (40.37% of projected (40.37% of County's
estimated population) County-wide growth) total projected population)
Tri-Aroa 4,324 + 1,165 5,489
Rural Planning Area (16.79% of County's 1996 (8.54% of projected County (13.39% of County's
estimated population) -wide growth, & 21.16% of total projected population,
projected rural area growth) & 25.45% of total p~ojecXed
rural area population)
TABLE//2: CURRENT & FUTURE URBAN/RURAL POPULATION EXPRESSED
AS A PERCENTAGE OF THE COUNTY-WIDE POPULATION TOTAL
1996 URBAN 2016 URBAN 1996 RURAL 2016 RURAL
POPULATION POPULATION POPULATION POPULATION
PERCENTAGE PERCENTAGE PERCENTAGE PERCENTAGE
37.63% 45.25%, or + 7.62% 62.37% 54.75%, or - 7.62%
(9,692 of 25,756) (17,826 of 39,396) (16,064 of 25,756) (21,570 of 39,396)
SUMMARY OF
UNDERSTANDING 5
FEBRUARY 6, 1996
XL
XH.
Selection of 50 Year .Joint Regional Population Forecasts for Utility Planning
Purposes:
The High and Low 50 Year Population Projections, drawn from the December, 1994
Population Forecast for Jefferson County and the Ci_W of Port Townsend: Final Report,
prepared by the Watterson West Group, Inc., will be extended to the year 2046, and used as
the 50 year joint regional population forecasts for utility planning purposes (see Attachment
"C" for forecast extension methodology).
When extended to the year 2046, the 50 Year Low Population Forecast for Jefferson County is
projected to be 50,108 (i.e., 24,352 additional persons; 25,7567 + 24,352 = 50,108).
When extended to the year 2046, the 50 Year High Population Forecast for Jefferson County is
projected to be 63,040 (i.e., 37,284 additional persons; 25,756 + 37,284 -- 63,040).
50 Year Population Projections - Port Townsend:
When extended to the year 2046, the 50 Year Low Population Forecast for the City of Port
Townsend is projected to be 17,775 (i.e., 9,409 additional persons; $,366s + 9,409 = 17,775).
When extended to the year 2046, the 50 Year High Population Forecast for the City of Port
Townsend is projected to be 23,035 (i.e., 14,669 additional persons; 8,366 + 14,669 = 23,035).
$0 Year Population Projections - Combined Planning Areas 2 (Quimper
Peninsula), 3 (Marrowstone Island), & 4 (Tri-Area):
When extended to the year 2046, the 50 Year Low Population Forecast for combined Planning
Areas 2, 3, and 4 is projected to be 13,924 (i.e., 5,834 additional persons; 8,0909 + 5,834 --
13,924).
When extended to the year 2046, the 50 Year High Population Forecast for combined Planning
Areas 2, 3, and 4 is projected to be 16,641 (i.e., 8,551 additional persons; 8,090 -t- 8,551 =
16,641).
Please refer to footnote #2 for information regarding the source of 1996 "base year" population estimates.
Please refer to foomote #2 for information regarding the source of 1996 "base year" population estimates.
Please refer to foomote #2 for information regarding the source of 1996 "base year" population estimates. Tills figure represents
the total of the 1996 "base year" estimates for Plamin$ Areas 2.3, md 4 (/.e., 2,927 + 839 + 4,324 -- 8,090).
SUMMARY OF
UNDERSTANDING 6
FEBRUARY 6, 1996
ATTACHMENT "A"
Method for Extending the "Revised Medium Population Projection,"
Drawn from the February I, 1995 "Addendum" to the
Population Forecast for Jefferson Count. and the City of Port Townsend: Final Report,
Through to the Year 2016
Subtract the 1994 population total from the 2014 projected total to obtain an estimate of the population
growth over the original planning .period.
Divide the estimate of the population growth over the original planning period by 20 to obtain an
estimate of the average number of additional per~ons per year.
Divide the average number of additionM persona p~r year by the population projected for the end of the
ori~inal planning period (i.e., 2014) to obtain the average anmml growth rate.
Add the average annual growth rate to the projected population at the end of the original planning
period (i.e., 2014) to obtain an estin~te of the population in the year 2015.
Add the average annual growth rate to the e~tin~te of the population in the year 2015 to obtain an
e~timate of the population in the year 2016.
Calculate the approximate growth over the revised 20 year planning period (i.e., 1996 - 2016):
a. U~ population e~timatea drawn from the October 31, 1995 "Addendum" to the Population
]~o~e0~a~ fog J'o~er~0n CounW and tho CiW of Port Town,nd: Final Report. for all e~timates
population during the "bas~ year" for the new 20 year planning period (i.e., 1996)~; and
b. Subtract the 1996 estin~ted population drawn ~om the October 31, 1995 "Addendum"
the "extended" e~t~mte of population in the year 2016 to obtain an e~timate of growth over the
revi~ed 20 year planning period.
t Pleasz refer to footnote #2 ~ page # ! of the Summary of Under~mding for informatit~o regardin$ thc ~ource of 1996 ~base year'
SUMMARY OF ATTACHMENT "A"
UNDERSTANDING A-t FEBRUARY 6, 1996
ATTACHMENT "B"
Estimates of 2016 Population for Planning Areas
Trends with Constraints, One UGA (Port Townsend) &
One MPR (Port Ludlow)
Planning Area #1 - Port Townsend:
I. 13,331 - 7,940 = 5,391(projected growth for the period 1994 - 2014)
2. 5,391 divided by 20 = 269.55 (avoraSe additional parsons par year)
3. 269.55 divided by 13,331 = 2.02197% (average annual growth rate for tho period 1994 - 2016)
4. 13,331 + 2.02197% of 13,331 = 13,601 (ostinmted population in tho year 2015)
5. 13,601 + 2.02197% of 13,601 = 13,876 (estimated population in the year 2016)
6. 13,876 - 8,366 = 5,510 (estimated growth for the period 1996 - 2016)
Planning Area #2 - Quimper Peninsula:
1. 3,953 - 2,724 = 1,229 (projected growth for the period 1994 - 2014)
2. 1,229 divided by 20 = 61.45 (average additional persons par year)
3. 61.45 divided by 3,953 = 1.55451% (average annual growth rate for the period 1994 - 2014)
4. 3,953 + 1.55451% of 3,953 = 4,014 (estimated population in the year 2015)
5. 4,014 + 1.55451% of 4,014 = 4,076 (estimated population in the year 2016)
6. 4,076 - 2,927 = 1,149 (estimated growth for the period 1996 - 2016)
Planning Area #3 - Marrowstone Island:
1.. 995 - 803 = 192 (projected growth for the period 1994 - 2014)
2. 192 divided by 20 = 9.6 (average additional persons per year)
' 3. 9.6 divided by 995 = 0.96482% (average annual growth rate for the period 1994 - 2014)
4. 995 + 0.96482% of 995 = 1,005 (estimated population in the year 2015)
5. 1,005 + 0.96482%o of 1,005 = 1,015 (estimated population in the year 2016)
6. 1,0[5 - 839 = 176 (estimated growth for the period 1996 - 2016)
SUMMARY OF
UNDERSTANDING
B-I
ATTAC [-[MENT "B"
FEBRUARY 6, 1996
Planning Area #4 - Tri-Area:
5.360 -.*.085 = 1.275 (proJected growlh for the permd 1994 - 2.014)
2. 1,275 divided by 20 = 63.75 (average additional persona per year)
3. 63.75 divided by 5,360 ~ 1.18936% (average annual growth rate for the period 1994 - 2014)
4. 5,360 + 1.18936% of 5,360 ~ 5,424 (estimated population in the year 2015)
5. 5,424 + 1.18936% of 5,424 = 5,489 (estimated population in the year 2016)
6. 5,489 - 4,324 ~ 1,165 (estimated growth for the period 1996 - 2016)
Planning Area #5 - Discovery Bay:
1. 1,431 - 1,041 ~' 390 (projected growth for the period 1994 - 2014)
2. 390 divided by 20 =~ 19.5 (average additional per,cna per year)
3. 19.5 divided by 1,431 = 1.36268% (average annual growth rate for the period 1994 - 2014)
4. 1,431 + 1.36268% of 1,431 = 1,450 (estimated population in the year 2015)
5. 1,450 + 1.36268% of 1,450 ~' 1,470 (estimated population in the year 2016)
6. 1,470 - 1,085 ~ 385 (estimated growth for the period 1996 - 2016)
Planning Area #6 - Center/Inland:
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
1,715 - 1,274 ~= 441 (projected growth for tho period 1994 - 2014)
441 divided by 20 ~= 22.05 (average additional por~on~ per year)
22.05 divided by 1,715 = 1.28571% (average annual growth rate for the period 1994 - 2014)
1,715 + 1.28571% of 1,715 == 1,737 (estimated population in the yemr 2015)
1,737 + 1.28571% of 1,737 = 1,759 (estimated population in tho year 2016)
1,759 - 1,351 =' 408 (estimated growth for the period 1996 - 2016)
SUMMARY OF
UNDERSTANDING B-2
ATTACHMENT "B"
FEBRUARY 6, 1996
Planning Area #7 - Port Ludlow/Oak Bay:
4.612 - 1.767 = 2.845 (proJected growth for the per,od 1994 - 2014)
2. 2.845 divided by 20 = 142.25 (average additional persons per year)
3. [42.25 divided by 4.612 = 3.08434% (average annual growth rate [:or tho period 1994 - 2014)
4. 4,6[2 + 3.08434% of 4,612 = 4,75,4 (estimated population in the year 2015)
5. 4,754 + 3.08434% of 4,754 :- 4,901 (estimated population in tho year 2016)
6. 4,901 - 1,985 ~ 2,916 (estimated growth for the period 1996 - 2016)
Planning Area #8 - Shine/Paradise:
I. 1,412 - 830 :- 582 (projooted growth for the period 1994 - 2014)
2. 582 divided by 20 ~ 29.1 (average additional persona per year)
3. 29.1 divided by 1,412 = 2.060994 (average annual growth rate for tho period 1994 - 2014)
4. 1,412 + 2.0609% of 1,412 = 1,441 (e~timated population in tho year 2015)
5. 1,441 + 2.060994 of 1,441 ~ 1,471 (estimated population in tho year 2016)
6. 1,471 - 897 = 574 (estimated growth for tho period 1996 - 2016)
Pl~mning Area #9 - Coylefroandos:
2.
3.
4.
6.
578 - 395 = 183 (projeoted growth for the period 1994 - 2014)
183 divided by 20 ~ 9.15 (average additional persona per year)
9.15 divided by 578 = 1.58304% (average annual growth rate for the period 1994 - 2014)
578 + 1.58304% of 578 = 587 (estimated population in the year 2015)
587 + 1.58304% of 587 =' S96 (estimated population in the year 2016)
596 - 411 = 185 (estimated growth for the period 1996 - 2016)
SUMMARY OF
UNDI~RSTANDING B-3
ATTACHMENT "B"
FEBRUARY 6, 1996
Planning Area #10 - Quilcene:
1.747 - 1.250 = 407 (projected growth for the period lq04 - 2014)
2. 497 divided by 20 = 24.8~ (average additional persons per year)
3. 24.85 divided by 1,747 =- 1.42243% (average annual growth rate for the period 1994 - 2014)
4. 1,747 + 1.42243% of 1,747 - 1,772 (estimated population in the year 2015)
5. 1,772 + 1.42243% of 1,772 -. I.,797 (estimated population in the year 2016)
6. 1,797 - 1,308 =- 490 (estimated growth t'or the period 1996 - 2016)
Planning Area #11 - Brinnon:
1. 1,878 - 1,232 ~. 646 (projected growth for the period 1994 - 2014)
2. 646 divided by 20 =' 32.3 (average additional persons per year)
3. 32.3 divided by 1,878 ~ 1.71991%.(average annual growth rate for the period 1994 - 2014)
4. 1,878 + 1.71991% of 1,878 - 1,910 (estimated population in the year 2015)
5. 1,910 + 1.71991% of 1,910 -" 1,943 (estimated population in the year 2016)
6. 1,943 - 1,299" 644 (estimated growth for the period 1996 - 2016)
Plan~ing Area #12 - West End:
1,001 - 960 -- 41 (projected growth for the period 1994 - 2014)
41 divided by 20 ~ 2.05 (average additional persons per year)
2.05 divided by t,001 ~- 0.20479% (average annual growth rate for the period 1994 - 2014)
1,001 + 0.20479% of 1,001" 1,003 (estimated population in the year 2015)
1,003 + 0.20479% of 1,003 ~' 1,005 (estimated population in the year 2016)
1,005 - 962 ~ 43 (estimated growth for the period 1996.- 2016)
SUMMARY OF
UNDERSTANDIlqG B-4
ATTACHMENT "B"
FEBRUARY 6, 1996
All Planning Areas - County-wide:
I
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
38.012 - 24.300 = 13.712 (prOjected growth for the period 1994 - 2014)
13,712 divided by 20 =' 685.6 (average annual additional persons per year)
685.6 divided by 38,012" 1.80364% (average anntml growth rate for the period 1994 - 2014)
38,012 + 1.g0364% of 38,012 -38,698 (estimated population in the year 2015)
35,695 + 1.g0364% of 38,698 - 39~396 (estimated population in tho year 2016)
39,396 - 25,756 - 13,640 (estimated growth for tho period 1996 - 2016)
SUMMARY OF
UNDERSTANDING
B-5
ATTACHMENT "B"
FEBRUARY 6, 1996
ATTACHMENT "C"
Method for Extending the 50 Year Joint Regional Population Forecasts for Utility
Planning Purposes, Drawn from the December, 1994 Population Forecast for Jefferson
County and the City of Port Townsend: Final Report,
Through to the Year 2046
Subtract the 1994 population total from the 2044 projected total to obtain an estimate of the population
growth over the original 50 year planning period.
Divide the estimate of the population growth over the original planning period by 50 to obtain an
estimate of the average number of additional per,cna per year.
Divide the average number of additional persena per year by the population projected for the end of the
original planning period (i.e., 2044) to obtain the average annual growth rate.
Add the average annual growth rate to the projected population at the end of the original planning
period (i.e., 2044) to obtain an estimate of the population in the year 2045.
Add the average annual growth rate to the estimate of the population in the year 2045 to obtain an
estimate of the population in the year 2046.
Calculate the approximate growth over the revised 20 year planning period (i.e., 1996 - 2046):
a. Use population e~imates drawn from the October 31, 1995 "Addendum" to the population
Forecast for Seffersen County and the CiW of Port Townsend: Final Report, for all estimates
population during the "base year" for the new 20 year planning period (Lc., 1996)t; and
b. Subtract the 1996 estimated population drawn from the October 31, 1995 "Addendum" from
the "extended" estimate of population in tho year 2016 to obtain an estimate of growth over the
revised 50 year planning period.
!
pogu~ation ~a~mates.
SUMMARY OF
UNDERSTANDING
Please refer to f~mc~c #2 on paso #l ct' thc S.mmo~/of Underst~din$ for information rega~din$ thc aoutcc of t996 'base year'
C-!
ATTACHMENT "C"
FEBRUARY 6. 1996