HomeMy WebLinkAboutWORKSHOP BOCC 2022 Mid-Biennium Budget Regular Agenda
Commissioners Office
JEFFERSON COUNTY
BOARD OF COUNTY COMMISSIONERS
AGENDA REQUEST
TO: Board of County Commissioners
FROM: Mark McCauley, County Administrator
DATE: July 25, 2022
SUBJECT: WORKSHOP re: 2023 Budget Assumptions and Board of Commissioners
Budget Guidance
STATEMENT OF ISSUE: As we approach the 2022-2023 Biennial Budget Mid-Biennium Review and
Modification a discussion with the Board of Commissioners regarding prevailing and projected economic
conditions is warranted. These conditions coupled with staff budget projections can help inform the Board as
they develop assumptions and related guidance for department directors and elected officials as they prepare
their mid-biennium submissions for 2023. This workshop should provide staff with the guidance they need to
craft a budget assumption and guidance resolution for potential adoption at the August 1, 2022
Commissioners meeting.
ANALYSIS: The pandemic, federal stimulus, CARES and ARPA funding have helped counties navigate
unprecedented state of emergency and the two-month recession in 2020. County revenue relies heavily on property
taxes and sales tax. Sales tax is likely to remain stable in the face of inflation and our local economy, and property
taxes are limited to 1% increase plus new construction. With increased expenses associated with inflation,
minimizing budget additions and maintaining existing levels of service to the greatest extent possible is fiscally
prudent.
What follows are key data points to help the Board formulate their budget assumptions and guidance. These
are just a few examples of what informed financial prognosticators are predicting. National Indicators
include:
• US Bureau of Economic Analysis 1st Quarter 2022 GDP decreased at an annual rate of -1.6%.
https://www.bea.gov/news/blog/2022-05-26/gross-domestic-product-first-quarter-2022-second-estimate-
corporate-
profits#:~:text=Real%20gross%20domestic%20product%20(GDP,advance%E2%80%9D%20estimate%20
released%20in%20April.
• July 18, 2022 - JPMorgan Cuts US Economic Growth Forecasts ‘Perilously Close’ to Recession: sees
second-quarter growth at 1%, down from 2.5% estimate.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-01/jpmorgan-cuts-us-gdp-forecasts-perilously-close-to-
recession
• July 19, 2022 - Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual
rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is -1.6 percent on July 19, down from -1.5 percent on July 15.
https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
• DOW 52 week high – 36,953. Low at 10:10 am on July 19 – 31,166: down 22%.
https://www.barrons.com/market-data/indexes/djia
• Recession Risk Ramps Higher as Inflation and Rates Soar:
Wells Fargo: we are changing our base case forecast for next year from an economic soft landing to a mild
recession starting in mid-2023. Over the past month, signals of a slowdown in the U.S. economy have
mounted. Weaker real spending suggests that the staying power of U.S. consumers is fading, housing
activity is buckling under the weight of higher interest rates, and business investment is downshifting amid
growing recession fears. The blistering pace of core inflation in recent months offers monetary
policymakers very little reassurance that inflation is on a sustainable downward path at present.
Harvard economist Larry Summers and others see a strong chance of an economic downturn in the next 2
years.
https://www.thestreet.com/personal-finance/chances-increasing-economic-downturn-forecasts
• July 18, 2022 – Forbes: Housing Market ‘Meltdown’ Intensifies: Home Builders Halt Construction as
Confidence Plunges to Two-Year Low.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2022/07/18/housing-market-meltdown-intensifies-
homebuilders-halt-construction-as-confidence-plunges-to-2-year-low/?sh=55de17eb6756
• July 17, 2022 - Wall Street Journal: Federal Reserve officials have signaled they are likely to raise interest
rates by 0.75 percentage point later this month, for the second straight meeting, as part of an aggressive
effort to combat high inflation.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-officials-preparing-to-lift-interest-rates-by-another-0-75-percentage-point-
11658068201
There is clearly a growing consensus that the U.S. economy is headed towards recession if it is not already there.
Given the economic challenges we are/will be facing coupled with the generous employee compensation increases
and new general fund positions approved in the 2022-2023 budget, staff will recommend a very conservative
approach for 2023 – to include a freeze on new positions and other general fund enhancements. There will be
exceptions to include requests fully funded with new revenues and non-discretionary items required by statute. The
most current Five-Year General Fund projection model is attached to further inform the Board regarding this
workshop. As with past models it forecasts a steadily declining fund balance over the five-year projection period.
FISCAL IMPACT: None.
RECOMMENDATION:
Listen to a staff presentation, discuss the content of the presentation, solicit input from elected officials and
department directors, deliberate and provide staff guidance for the drafting of a budget assumptions and
guidance resolution to be considered at the August 1, 2022 Commissioner meeting.
REVIEWED BY:
________________________________ _07/19/22_
Mark McCauley, County Administrator Date