HomeMy WebLinkAbout121123 email Aquatic Center needs more time for options and scrutinyALERT: BE CAUTIOUS This email originated outside the organization. Do not open attachments or click on links if you are not expecting them.
Dear Board of County Commissioners,
For your 12/11/23 3pm "Discussion re: Aquatic
Facility", please consider this weekend's article
"$10.5 Million Cost Overruns and Delays Projected
for PT Aquatic Center - A PROFESSIONAL ANALYSIS" by Mark Grant:
https://www.porttownsendfreepress.com/2023/12/09/10-5-million-cost-overruns-and-delays-projected-for-pt-aquatic-center-a-professional-analysis/
...which concludes:
"Adding the more realistic $38.4 million in hard
costs and $9.2 million in soft costs brings the
estimated total project cost to $47.6 million.
That is a potential $10.5 million of extra costs
to cover, which should be very concerning. It is
my opinion that the project feasibility should be
based on this revised $47.6 million amount, not
the $37.1 million as is currently proposed. ...
"If this project were to move forward based on
the currently budgeted cost information, I am
concerned that with inevitable cost overruns
and debt needing to be serviced the only way
out for the newly-formed Public Facilities
District would be through a property tax
increase, meaning the county-wide property
taxpayers will have to serve as the guarantors for the initial debt secured."
Please also consider my own comment based on Grant's analysis:
Even worse, $10.5 million extra hard costs and 3
extra years before starting construction would
have significant downstream consequences. Total
debt service on the extra $10.5 million at 6.3%
interest rate over 25 years would cost another
$10.4 million, which added together boosts
expected 25-year pool costs from $108.9 million up to $129.8 million.
Moreover, the later 2027 start date would delay
the day when (best-case-scenario) the pool could
become operationally solvent, increasing risk of
default on loan payments during its first years
without a larger reserve fund (requiring even more debt to finance).
These problems were detailed in "The $108,941,000
Pool Could Default Its First Year", except the
situation that article described is accentuated
by the additional costs and delays uncovered here.
https://www.porttownsendfreepress.com/2023/10/24/the-108941000-pool-could-default-its-first-year/
Yours truly,
Stephen