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Home My WebLink About03.05.24 GMSC SlideshowJefferson County, WA Growth Management Steering Committee Meeting 1 March 5, 2024 Growth Management Steering Committee 03/05/2024 1 This Meeting’s Goals 1.Understand this committee’s role 2.Understanding how the Growth Management Act, Countywide Planning Policies, Jefferson County Comprehensive Plan, and Port Townsend Comprehensive Plan interact to shape our community 3.Determine which estimate range we are using to plan for our population through 2045 Growth Management Steering Committee 03/05/2024 2 The Growth Management Steering Committee’s Role Growth Management Steering Committee 03/05/2024 3 Steering Committee’s Role (1/2) •The GMA requires counties and their cities cooperate on population allocation and countywide planning policies (RCW 36.70A.210) •Committee conducts interagency coordination during the 2025 periodic reviews of Jefferson County’s Comprehensive Plan and Port Townsend’s Comprehensive Plan Growth Management Steering Committee 03/05/2024 4 Steering Committee’s Role (2/2) •Engage with other community partners, interested parties, and stakeholders, such as local special purpose districts like school and fire, federally recognized tribes, non-profits, and private industry groups •Specifically engage with recognized tribes in Jefferson County on amending the Countywide Planning Policies •Select population growth targets for Port Townsend and Jefferson County, including allocating population growth to specific areas Growth Management Steering Committee 03/05/2024 5 County Resolution 09-24 Defining GMSC’s Purpose Growth Management Steering Committee 03/05/2024 6 establish population projections and population and employment allocations for the next twenty-years 1 review the adequacy of the CPPs 2 coordinate consistency among plans 3 Understanding how the Growth Management Act, Countywide Planning Policies, and Comprehensive Plans Work Together Growth Management Steering Committee 03/05/2024 7 What is the Growth Management Act? Body of Washington State laws adopted in 1990 Focused on local control of growth Growth Management Steering Committee 03/05/2024 8 Why did Washington Adopt the Growth Management Act? Growth Management Steering Committee 03/05/2024 9 Requires cities and counties to coordinate land use planning to accommodate future population growth, capital facility needs, economic development and environmental protection in a sustainable way Uncoordinated and unplanned growth harms Washington’s environment, sustainable economic development, and quality of life The Growth Management Act and Comprehensive Planning •In Jefferson County, coordinating land use planning per GMA is mainly achieved through comprehensive plans •Comprehensive plans can be amended annually. •Comprehensive plan must be reviewed in depth every 10 years, a process called the periodic review. •Jefferson County and Port Townsend are both required to plan under the GMA. Our periodic reviews are due in 2025. Growth Management Steering Committee 03/05/2024 10 Hierarchy of Planning Process & Implementation Development codes and functional plans Comprehensive Plans Countywide Planning Policies Growth Management Act GMA CPPs Jefferson County Comprehensive Plan Jefferson County Unified Development Code and functional plans Port Townsend Comprehensive Plan Port Townsend Municipal Code and functional plans Growth Management Steering Committee 03/05/2024 11 Question about the Growth Management Act and the role of this Committee? Growth Management Steering Committee 03/05/2024 12 Population Estimate Ranges Growth Management Steering Committee 03/05/2024 13 The Growth Management Act and the Growth Management Steering Committee The Growth Management Steering Committee picks a population projection based on the Office of Financial Management’s research and plans for the growing population Growth Management Steering Committee 03/05/2024 14 Three Elements of Population Change Births Deaths Net Migration Growth Management Steering Committee 03/05/2024 15 Increasing Decreasing Migration has the biggest influence in Jefferson Co. Population Births > Deaths Deaths > Births B-D + Migration Estimates & Projections Growth Management Steering Committee 03/05/2024 16 Census Estimates An estimate comes from a census [count], enumerated from actual data collected Intercensal Estimates Course-correcting figures starting from the last decennial census and interpolating observed data to derive population estimates between the base year and current year. (Drivers Licenses, Birth Certificates, Death Certificates) Projections Projections are predictions on future population, based on demographic assumptions (age structure cohorts), trends, and other information (e.g. Housing Unit Population Survey, completed by PCD and DCD staff). Jefferson County Demographics 5-Year Projections of Population Change for Growth Management 2020-25 2025-30 2030-35 2035-40 2040-45 Population 34,586 36,226 37,750 39,170 40,486 Population Change 1,609 1,640 1,524 1,420 1,316 [Amount Change][+31][-116][-104][-104] Births 809 882 953 1,042 1,092 Deaths 2,800 2,833 3,354 3,637 3,648 Net Migration 3,600 3,591 3,925 4,015 3,872 2022 GMA Projections –Medium Series •Too high: •Not enough people/ratepayers to fund the infrastructure we planned or started building •Too low: •Not enough infrastructure to support people •Delays development as we build infrastructure to catch up to growth •Compress housing supply •Potential funding shortfall for capital investment •Medium estimate: •Commerce describes this estimate as “surprisingly accurate” Growth Management Steering Committee 03/05/2024 18 Why Population Estimation Matters •Housing projection tool defaults to medium •Many in community already using tools and having conversations with “medium” data •Historically,Jefferson County has been consistently closer to medium than the other projections Growth Management Steering Committee 03/05/2024 19 OFM methodology – Why medium is just right! 2013-2023 Population Growth Growth Management Steering Committee 03/05/2024 20 Growth Management Act Population Change, April 1, 2013 to April 1, 2023 Office of Financial Management, Forecasting and Research Division In accord with the Growth Management Act (GMA), this table reports the percent change in population by county over the preceding ten-year period as per RCW 43.62.035 County Fully Planning Under GMA 2013 Postcensal Estimate of Population 2023 Postcensal Estimate of Population 2013–23 Numeric Change in Population 2013–23 Percentage Change in Population State .6,882,400 7,951,150 1,068,750 15.53 Jefferson Y 30,275 33,425 3,150 10.40 Last modified: 2023-06-30. Graphing 2013-2023 Population Growth Growth Management Steering Committee 03/05/2024 21 30,275 33,425 28,000 29,000 30,000 31,000 32,000 33,000 34,000 2013 Postcensal Estimate of Population 2023 Postcensal Estimate of Population Jefferson County's Population Growth 2013-2023 15.53 7.91 5.19 10.60 10.40 11.50 8.41 14.69 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 16.00 18.00 State Clallam Grays Harbor Island Jefferson Kitsap Mason San Juan 2013–2023 Percentage Population Change for Washington State, Jefferson County, and Closest Neighboring Counties Projected and Actual Growth for Jefferson County and Port Townsend from the 1996 Comp Plan to the 2016 Periodic Review 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 1996 Port Townsend Projections 1996 Jefferson County Projections 1996 Total Projections Port Townsend Actual Growth Jefferson County Actual Growth Total Actual Growth Growth Management Steering Committee 03/05/2024 22 Comparing Previous Projections and Actual Growth 1996-2002 Growth Management Steering Committee 03/05/2024 23 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 1996 Total Projection 1996 County Projection 1996 City Projection 2002 Total Projection 2002 County Projection 2002 City Projection Actual County Growth Actual Total Growth Actual City Growth Comparing Previous Projections and Actual Growth 1996-2014 Growth Management Steering Committee 03/05/2024 24 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 1996 Total Projection 1996 Projection 1996 Projection 2002 Total Projection 2002 County Projection 2002 City ProjectionActual County Growth Actual Total Growth Actual City Growth 2014 City Projection 2014 County Projection 2014 Total Projection Comparing the 2024 Medium Projected Growth Rate with Previous Projections and Actual Growth Growth Management Steering Committee 03/05/2024 25 0 20000 40000 60000 1996 Total Projections 2002 Total Projections 2014 Port Townsend Projections 2014 Jefferson County Projections 2014 Total Projections 2024 Port Townsend Medium Projection 2024 Jefferson County Medium Projection 2024 Total Medium Projection Port Townsend Actual Growth Jefferson County Actual Growth Total Actual Growth Action Item: Recommend a high, medium, or low projected growth rate to the Board of County Commissioners Growth Management Steering Committee 03/05/2024 26 Schedule of Spring and Summer Meetings MEETING GOAL GMSC Meeting 1 Review roles and responsibilities of GMSC; select a population target GMSC Meeting 2 Study Commerce’s Housing Action Projection Tool (HAPT); discuss preliminary findings from land capacity analyses; recommend growth targets; report out on relevant legislative changes GMSC Meeting 3 Continue using the HAPT; recommend population allocation to areas;begin discussing Countywide Planning Policies (CPPs) IGC May 16 Meeting GMSC presents findings on population allocation BoCC May Meeting BoCC and City Council to formally adopt resolution allocating population Growth Management Steering Committee 03/05/2024 27 Schedule of Fall and Winter Meetings MEETING GOAL GMSC Meeting 4 Continue discussing CPPs and recommend amendments GMSC Meeting 5 Placeholder for wrapping up planning work IGC September Meeting GMSC presents proposed amendments to CPPs Board of County Commissioners’ Formally adopt CPP amendments City Council Discuss consistency of City's Comp Plan with CPPs Growth Management Steering Committee 03/05/2024 28