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Home My WebLink About2024 04 09 GMSC Commerce - Housing Projections-Allocationsv1.4 Laura Hodgson, Housing Planning and Data Manager GROWTH MANAGEMENT SERVICES APRIL 9, 2024 Housing Need Projections & Allocations WASHINGTON STATE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 2 CRIME VICTIMS AND PUBLIC SAFETY SMALL BUSINESS ASSISTANCE PLANNING AND TECH ASSISTANCE INFRASTRUCTURE AND BROADBAND COMMUNITY SERVICES AND FACILITIES HOUSING AND HOMELESSNESS ENERGY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT We strengthen communities WASHINGTON STATE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 3 HB 1220 (2021) strengthened housing planning In 2021, HB 1220 directed Commerce to project future housing needs by income bracket including:•For moderate, low, very low, and extremely low-income households •For permanent supportive housing, emergency housing and emergency shelters HB 1220 also directed communities to “plan for and accommodate” housing by strengthening housing elements and regulations, including: •Identify local housing needs based on Commerce’s countywide numbers * •Identify sufficient land capacity for all housing needs * •Make adequate provisions for all economic segments (document barriers and actions needed to achieve housing availability)* •Identify and begin to undo racially disparate impacts, exclusion and displacement * * Commerce Guidance documents available WASHINGTON STATE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 4 What does “plan for and accommodate” mean? •Generally speaking, it means complying with RCW 36.70A.070(2) (i.e., the previous slide) •That means: •Enough land capacity for your jurisdiction’s allotted housing needs by income bracket •Not prohibiting the types of housing that are needed in your community to meet those housing needs •Identifying and planning to remove barriers to affordable housing (and adding incentives for affordable housing development!) •It DOES NOT mean jurisdiction’s need to build the housing WASHINGTON STATE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 5 Housing need projections Projected housing needs are determined using the following information: •Range of OFM population projections •Future household size, healthy vacancy rate (6%), removing second homes, removing group quarters •Data on future homeless housing needs •Cost-burdening of renters WASHINGTON STATE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 6 Considerations for population projection •Recommend OFM Medium projections because: •OFM has historically been within 1-2% of the medium projection •New housing need projection methodology will result in more housing units than the county has planned for in the past •Going above medium projection will require planning and financing for infrastructure that may not be needed •Choosing a medium population projection will not limit the number of people who will come to the county WASHINGTON STATE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 7 Steps to identify local housing needs •Identify countywide population projection and how many housing units via HAPT •Recommend OFM Medium projection •Identify countywide planning policies that direct the distribution of growth and housing •What features should determine where there should be more growth (jobs, transit, services, land capacity, etc.)? •Where should more affordable housing be planned and encouraged? •Decide on how much growth (population) goes to each jurisdiction (e.g., where there are more jobs, transit, services) •Decide the allocation of housing needs by income level WASHINGTON STATE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 8 Using the HAPT Counties and their cities may choose: •Population growth target within OFM range •How much growth goes to each jurisdiction •Method for allocating all housing needs by income level to each jurisdiction Counties and their cities may not choose: •Total projected housing needs •Projected housing needs by income level •Projected PSH or emergency housing needs These must come from the HAPT WASHINGTON STATE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 9 Helpful information to have before allocations •Overall land capacity generally AND the affordability of the units in the land capacity •Vested, but not built projects or projects expected to be submitted •Factors or policies that will guide where more affordable housing will go: •Capacity and infrastructure •Access to jobs, transit, amenities •Access to services •Equity and access to opportunity •Disparities in where affordable housing is today WASHINGTON STATE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 10 Allocation tool •The HAPT file includes a tool to help support allocation decisions •The tool is intended as a starting point for discussion •Allocation tool provides two frameworks for dividing up housing needs •Method A: Focuses on new growth. “Everyone does the same thing with new growth.” •Method B: Focuses on the planning horizon year. “Everyone tries to reach the same goal in 2045.” •Use Method A, Method B or custom allocation method, so long as it meets minimum requirements in the guidance •*NEW* -Method C is coming in June •With additional lines for specific areas (individual UGAs, LAMIRDs, tribes) •It will follow Method A, but direct low -income housing (<50% AMI) to urban growth areas WASHINGTON STATE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 11 Method A 45.2%13.9% 11.3% 4.5% 5.7% 19.3%City share WASHINGTON STATE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 12 Method B 12.8%11.6% 16.9% 9.1% 10.6% 39.0% Approx City share WASHINGTON STATE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 13 What other counties have done •King County –Custom method •Population distribution: More growth to areas with jobs and transit •Housing needs allocation: Directed 0-80% AMI levels based on three factors •Current affordability of the jurisdiction's housing stock, •Amount of housing stock at or below 80% AMI that is income restricted, and •Ratio of low -wage workers that work in the sub-region compared to low -wage workers that live there •Pierce and Kitsap Counties –Method A (due to time constraints) •Snohomish –Custom method •Hybrid of Method A & B, augmenting Method A towards a fairer share model •Basically Method B, but removed the negative values WASHINGTON STATE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 14 What other counties have done •Lewis County –Custom method •Starting with Method A, then allocating more growth to larger cities near I -5 that are better suited for low -income housing •Tool into consideration permitted or coming projects •Skagit County –Method A with modifications •Reduce housing unit allocation within the 0 -50% AMI band in the Rural geography or outside of UGAs by 90% •Rebalance the housing unit allocations by reallocating the calculated need from the >120% AMI bracket from each UGA to the rural geography. www.commerce.wa.gov Laura Hodgson HOUSING PLANNING AND DATA MANAGER Laura.Hodgson@commerce.wa.gov 360-764-3143 Questions? www.commerce.wa.gov/planning -for -housing