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Home My WebLink About2024 04 09 GMSC county-city staff slidesGrowth Management Steering Committee Meeting 2 April 9, 2024 Tonight's presentation •Quick recap from March meeting •Introduce Laura Hodgson, Department of Commerce •Following Laura's presentation, Staff will present Port Townsend/Hadlock sewer planning data supporting medium growth target •Staff will reframe GMSC timeline/expectations given HAPT timing, and prompt Countywide Planning Policy work •Staff Prompt for Committee Recommendation tonight (Population growth target) •Q and A •Discussion Growth Management Steering Committee 04/09/2024 2 Introducing Laura Hodgson, Department of Commerce Growth Management Steering Committee 04/09/2024 3 Review Previous Meeting •How to locate Countywide Planning Policies and Functional Plans:www.co.jefferson.wa.us/1708/2025-Periodic-Update •Population mobility and migration •Data on people who live in Jefferson County for only part of the year •Impact on PUD's investments if we pick high vs medium •Transportation Level of Service •Percentages of current population between Port Townsend, Hadlock. •Capital Financing for infrastructure –focus for tonight Growth Management Steering Committee 04/09/2024 4 Why Population Projections matter: Port Townsend Sewer System Port Townsend’s National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System permit requires planning to expand our Waste Water Treatment Facility when our current one is at 85% capacity Expanded Waste Water Treatment Facility needs to be online before we reach 100% capacity Takes 5 -10 years to plan, fund, and build an expansion Per the 2024 Preliminary General Sewer Plan, we expect to be at 85% capacity when the number of sewer users reaches about 11,085. We expect to reach 100% capacity when there are about 13,500 sewer users Growth Management Steering Committee 04/09/2024 5 When to Expand Port Townsend’s Sewer 9,000 9,500 10,000 10,500 11,000 11,500 12,000 12,500 13,000 13,500 14,000 14,500 15,000 15,500 16,000 16,500 17,000 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 City Population per Medium Projection City Population per Medium Projection Plus Expansion to Glen Cove City Population per High Projection City Population per High Projection Plus Expansion to Glen Cove High projection starts sewer planning in 2024 Medium projection starts sewer planning in 2036 High projection sewer online by 2028 to 2034 Medium projection sewer online by 2036 to 2040 Begin Sewer Planning Sewer Online Growth Management Steering Committee 04/09/2024 6 Issues with High Projections •Medium projection chosen for both City and County capital planning documents. •The assumptions for these documents closely align with the 2045 OFM Medium target. •Shifting to a higher projection involves significant changes to financial planning. Growth Management Steering Committee 04/09/2024 7 Issues with High Projections (cont.) •Higher costs for residents, business owners, and city •Unintended consequence: growth to rural areas—not UGA's •Growth projections influence capital financing not zoning •Land and housing capacity allocations influence zoning •Need to see if we can materialize medium growth first •If higher populations materialize, we can readjust •City's General Sewer Plan assumptions based on medium growth. Growth Management Steering Committee 04/09/2024 8 HAPT considerations ...at least for tonight's purposes Recap HAPT steps: ID population projection, housing units needed per HAPT, ID CPP to direct growth/housing distribution. THEN how much growth to each jurisdiction and needs by income level. No matter what projection we select, revisit growth-related countywide policies. Next meeting is our opportunity to discuss. If choose population target, staff can assemble more info to guide allocations. e.g. land capacity and affordability of housing units, vested building permits, and factors influencing housing siting (infrastructure, jobs, services, equity) Growth Management Steering Committee 04/09/2024 9 Next Steps: •Consider committee recommendation tonight of Medium OFM population growth target. •Pivot to working on Countywide Planning Policy at May meeting. •Staff work with Commerce to examine new Method C in HAPT and study impact on growth allocations between rural/urban areas in County -for GMSC discussion in June/July. Growth Management Steering Committee 04/09/2024 10 Additional data Growth Management Steering Committee 04/09/2024 11 Projecting Medium Population for Total and Specific Areas 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8Port Townsend UGA Actual Population Port Hadlock/Irondale UGA Actual Population Port Ludlow MPR Actual Population Brinnon MPR Actual Population Unincorporated Jefferson County Actual Population Total Actual Population Port Townsend UGA Projected Population Port Hadlock/Irondale UGA Projected Population Port Ludlow MPR Projected Population Brinnon MPR Projected Population Unincorporated Jefferson County Projected Population Total Projected Population Growth Management Steering Committee 04/09/2024 13 Projecting High Population for Total and Specific Areas 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Port Townsend UGA Actual Population Port Hadlock/Irondale UGA Actual Population Port Ludlow MPR Actual Population Brinnon MPR Actual Population Unincorporated Jefferson County Actual Population Total Actual Population Port Townsend UGA Projected Population Port Hadlock/Irondale UGA Projected Population Port Ludlow MPR Projected Population Brinnon MPR Projected Population Unincorporated Jefferson County Projected Population Total Projected Population Growth Management Steering Committee 04/09/2024 14 Current and Projected Medium Population Growth by Region 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Port Townsend UGA Actual Population 9074 9208 10148 Port Hadlock/Irondale UGA Actual Population 3990 3552 3329 Port Ludlow MPR Actual Population 3011 2382 2959 Brinnon MPR Actual Population 731 705 907 Unincorporated Jefferson County Actual Population 9493 14236 15634 Total Actual Population 26299 30083 32977 Port Townsend UGA Projected Population 10148 10727 11318 11866 12377 12851 Port Hadlock/Irondale UGA Projected Population 3329 3641 3959 4255 4530 4786 Port Ludlow MPR Projected Population 2959 3122 3287 3441 3584 3717 Brinnon MPR Projected Population 907 979 1053 1122 1186 1245 Unincorporated Jefferson County Projected Population 15634 16117 16609 17066 17492 17887 Total Projected Population 32977 34586 36226 37750 39170 40486 Growth Management Steering Committee 04/09/2024 15 Current and Projected High Population Growth by Region 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Port Townsend UGA Actual Population 9074 9208 10148 Port Hadlock/Irondale UGA Actual Population 3990 3552 3329 Port Ludlow MPR Actual Population 3011 2382 2959 Brinnon MPR Actual Population 731 705 907 Unincorporated Jefferson County Actual Population 9493 14236 15634 Total Actual Population 26299 30083 32977 Port Townsend UGA Projected Population 10148 11723 12959 14149 15299 16408 Port Hadlock/Irondale UGA Projected Population 3329 4178 4844 5485 6105 6702 Port Ludlow MPR Projected Population 2959 3401 3748 4081 4404 4715 Brinnon MPR Projected Population 907 1104 1258 1407 1551 1689 Unincorporated Jefferson County Projected Population 15634 16947 17976 18968 19926 20850 Total Projected Population 32977 37353 40784 44090 47284 50365 Growth Management Steering Committee 04/09/2024 16 Projection Comparison 2025 2045 20-Year Growth Diff. from Medium CAGR Percent High Projection 37,353 50,365 13,012 7,112 0.015056 1.51 [medium -high]35,970 45,426 9,456 3,556 0.011738 1.17 Medium Projection 34,586 40,486 5,900 0 0.007906 0.79 [medium-low]33,203 37,887 4,684 -1,216 0.006620 0.66 Low Projection 31,819 35,287 3,468 -2,432 0.005185 0.52 Maximum Population Range:9,544 Growth Management Steering Committee 04/09/2024 17 Urban/Rural Disaggregation Port Townsend Jefferson County Total Urban 36%34%70% Rural 30%30% 100% Growth Management Steering Committee 04/09/2024 18 OFM 2025 Projected Pop 34,586 & applying 2018 allocation % 2018 Allocation Percentages Total Growth Tot Projected Growth 5,900 from OFM Middle proj 2025- 2045, & applying 2018 Allocation % 2045 Population Projection PTUGA 12,451 36%2124 14,575 PHUGA 6,710 19.40%1145 7854 Port Ludlow MPR 3,493 10.10%596 4089 Plesant Harbor MPR 1,556 4.50%266 1822 Rural & Resource 10,376 30%1770 12146 Countywide Total 34,586 100%5900 40,486 Growth Management Steering Committee 04/09/2024 19 Port Townsend Sewer Growth Management Steering Committee 04/09/2024 20 Hadlock Sewer Growth Management Steering Committee 04/09/2024 21