HomeMy WebLinkAbout050124 email - 2024 Elections - Filing week is around the cornerALERT: BE CAUTIOUS This email originated outside the organization. Do not open attachments or click on links if you are not expecting them.
Good Morning!
We are just under a week away from filing week (May 6 - May 10). All candidates wishing to run for office in Washinton will need to register with the Secretary of State by May 10th at
5:00 pm. I wanted to provide a preview of how state races are shaping up. I will send updated information again after filing week, after the primary, and periodically through November.
The attached spreadsheet summarizes key contested races and the viable candidates who have registered. Candidates who have not begun to fundraise are omitted unless they are otherwise
noteworthy (currently elected, local celebrity, etc). The fundraising numbers on the first page are an approximation of cash on hand (what they have raised, less their debt and expenditures).
The second page of the spreadsheet has the financial details for each candidate. Note the dropdown boxes at the top of the financials page - to assist with sorting the info in whatever
way is interesting to you. A strikethrough on any line indicates a campaign that has ended (often because the candidate is pursuing a different elected office). All the information
contained in the attached is a snapshot in time and will change rapidly over the coming months.
Summary: The 2024 elections in Washington State will be historic for many reasons, as they will shake up the political landscape across the legislative and executive branches of government.
Democrats will remain firmly in power, as they have strong advantages in voter registration, fundraising, and public opinion. National politics and Former President Donald Trump at
the top of the ballot harm Republicans’ chances of gaining electoral ground here in Washington.
Notable races to watch include the races for Governor and Attorney General, the statewide ballot measures, and more than a dozen state legislative races.
Worth noting:
* Redistricting - Washington's recent redistricting process resulted in redrawn boundaries in 13 legislative districts and shifts at least 300,000 voters into new districts. This is
particularly impactful to the 14th, 15th, 17th, and 18th legislative districts but will make things interesting (particularly for Republicans) in a number of districts around the state.
*
Open seats - There are currently several races where there is NO active registered candidate (LDs 12, 14, and 17).
*
Big spenders - Gubernatorial candidate and likely next Governor, Bob Ferguson, continues to significantly outraise his opponents and has spent more than $1.7M with almost $4M in cash
on hand. Senator Ron Muzzall (LD 10) is the biggest legislative spender so far and is the target of the first legislative independent expenditure (IE) spending this cycle. His campaign
has spent nearly $200k and a Federation of State Employees-funded PAC has spent more than $40k to defeat him.
*
People power - Three initiatives have qualified for the November ballot and opposition fundraising is gaining steam. I-2109 repeals the capital gains tax, I-2117 repeals the Climate
Commitment Act, and I-2124 makes the state's long-term care Insurance program optional. Three additional initiatives (for a total of 6) were filed in March and April by State Republican
Party Chair Jim Walsh. More details on the first three can be found in the attached, while the latter three are still working through the process of being reviewed and finalized.
Election Overview:
The state of Washington has nine statewide elected officials, who serve four-year terms. In November, Washington voters will decide who will serve as Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Secretary
of State, Treasurer, Auditor, Attorney General, Commissioner of Public Lands, Superintendent of Public Instruction, and Insurance Commissioner. Before filing week, incumbents for Lieutenant
Governor, Secretary of State, Treasurer, and Auditor did not have viable opposition. The race for Insurance Commissioner is also all but guaranteed, with current Senator Patty Kuderer
having no viable opponent to replace retiring Insurance Commissioner Mike Kreidler.
All 98 seats in the House and 25 of 49 seats in the Senate will be on the ballot this Fall. Mark your calendars - Washington State's Primary Election will be held on August 6 and the
General Election is on November 5.
Currently, Democrats hold a 58-40 majority in the House and a 29-20 majority in the Senate.
Redistricting Impacts:
Redistricting to address Hispanic representation in the Yakima Valley resulted in redrawn boundaries for 13 legislative districts. In 2021, Washington’s bipartisan, voter-created Redistricting
Commission established the current legislative and congressional boundaries. However, a federal lawsuit known as Soto Palmer v. Hobbs challenged the map of Central Washington’s 15th
Legislative District, alleging violations of the federal Voting Rights Act (VRA). In August, a federal judge ruled in favor of the plaintiffs, finding that the existing 15th District
map diluted the electoral power of Latino voters, thus violating federal voting rights laws. The court determined that the district borders impaired the ability of Latino voters to
participate equally in elections.
To address this issue, the court approved new boundaries for the 15th Legislative District. The redrawn district now stretches from East Yakima to Pasco and includes Wapato, Toppenish,
Grainger, and Sunnyside. The Yakama Nation Reservation is also part of this district. Importantly, the district will now be known as the 14th district, not the 15th.
The changes in the 15th District have a domino effect:
*
Three Republican senators will be uprooted from their districts due to the redistricting.
*
The Latina state senator, who previously represented most of the affected area, will also be impacted.
*
The numerical change from 15th to 14th is because the Senate seat in the 14th is on the ballot this year, while the 15th is not until 2026.
*
Representatives, however, face elections every two years.
More information to come after filing week. Please don't hesitate to reach out with any questions or to discuss any of this in more detail.
Thank you!
<http://www.strategies360.com/>
KELSEY HULSE
Vice President of Government Relations
She/Her
C 425.306.3614 O 360.763.0366
1018 CAPITOL WAY S
SUITE 204
OLYMPIA, WA 98501
STRATEGIES360.COM <http://strategies360.com/>