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Home My WebLink AboutQuantitative Housing Data ReportQuantitative Homeless and Affordable Housing Data Report for the Homeless and Affordable Housing Task Force, City of Port Townsend and Jefferson County COMPILED BY VIKI SONNTAG, JOINT CITY OF PORT TOWNSEND/JEFFERSON COUNTY HOUSING FUND BOARD MAY 2025 Organization of Slide Deck Topic Slides Population 3 through 11 Homeless and Unsheltered Counts 12 through 21 Tenure (Own or Rent)22 through 28 Cost-Burden 29 through 43 Demographic Differences and Disparate Impacts 44 through 49 Housing Supply 50 through 60 Housing Needs 61 through 65 Note: This slide deck focuses on contextual drivers and conditions and does not include performance metrics such as length-of-time in homelessness and number of people served by demographics. Each topic’s data set begins with a “data story”, that is, a summary of the data take-aways for that topic. Population Data Story ➢Jefferson County is getting older. ➢Of counties, Jefferson County has the highest share of the population age 65 and older in Washington with 26.3% in 2010 and 41.6% in 2022. It has the 2nd highest share of all counties in the country. (Slides 5 and 6) ➢The share of senior households (over 65) in Jefferson County is more than twice that of Washington as a whole. (Slide 7) ➢The second largest predictor of homelessness in Washington counties is the percentage of the population 65 and over, after median rent for one-bedroom apartments. ➢Rental households below 80% AMI are at greatest risk for displacement from the housing shortage. (Slides 8 and 9) ➢Jefferson County is getting whiter. (Slide 10) Source: PolicyMap Local Housing Solutions , Housing Needs Assessment Report, Jefferson County, May 2025 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% Under 18 18 to 24 25 to 49 50 to 64 Over 65 Share of Population by Age and Gender Jefferson County 2023 Male Female Source: ACS Table S010 2023 5-Year Estimate JC Population Distribution 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+ 2020 Population by Age and Sex ..Male Female % 65 and over: 41% Of counties, Jefferson County has the highest share of the population age 65 and older in Washington with 26.3% in 2010 and 41.6% in 2022. It has the 2nd highest share of all counties in the country. Source: Washington State Office of Financial Management WSU Report: Median rent for one-bedroom apartments is the strongest predictor of homelessness rates in Washington for all counties. The second largest predictor is the percentage of the population 65 and over. Source: PolicyMap Local Housing Solutions , Housing Needs Assessment Report, Jefferson County, May 2025 Tenure Owners Renters Income Bracket < $20k $20k- $35k $35k- $50k $50k- $75K > $75k < $20k $20k- $35k $35k- $50k $50k- $75K > $75k 2016 # of HHs 1318 1416 1298 2137 3807 1208 601 601 463 449 2023 # of HHs 1253 1330 1298 2205 6491 538 444 312 406 1091 Incr/Decr -65 -86 0 68 2684 -670 -157 -289 -57 642 2023 % of Population 8%8%8%14%40%3%3%2%3%7% Incr/Decr % in Population -5%-6%0%3%71%-55%-26%-48%-12%143% Source: Compiled June 2024 from ACS Table B25106 5 Yr Estimates; Updated March 2025 Population by Tenure and Income Bracket 2016-2023 -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% < $20k $20k-$35k $35k-$50k $50k-$75K > $75k Increase/Decrease in % Population by Income and Tenure 2016 -2023 Owners Renters Source: ACS Table B25106 5 Yr Estimates Income % AMI in 2023 $75k 90% $50k 60% $35k 42% $20k 24% Source: Draft Housing Needs Analysis, City of Port Townsend, Feb 2025 Source: Draft Housing Needs Analysis, City of Port Townsend, Feb 2025 Homeless and Unsheltered Counts Data Story ➢ In Jefferson County, the average number of social service clients/households experiencing homelessness or housing instability over a six-month period was fairly stable at 508 individuals for the past 6 years. (Slide 13) ➢This is likely an undercount of those experiencing homelessness, especially of the underhoused (those living in substandard living conditions, eg, without running water or sanitation in their dwelling, or in overcrowded conditions). ➢Families with minor children and BIPOC are overrepresented in homeless and unstably housed population relative to their percentages in the population. (Slides 14, 15 and 17) ➢ Families with children under 18 are overrepresented in homeless and unstably housed at almost twice their percentage in the general population. ➢Indigenous people are overrepresented in homeless and unsheltered populations at more than 3 times their percentages in the general population. ➢Unsheltered individuals are most likely to be male; be in their 30s or 40s; live outdoors; have been homeless for more than a year; and/or are experiencing a mental health challenge. (Slides 17 to 20) SNAPSHOT COUNTS Source: Commerce Snapshot Reports All non-duplicated clients/households receiving services in previous six months. Based on combined Medicaid, Economic Service, and HMIS populations. "Homeless or Unstably Housed" refers to all clients or households experiencing homelessness or housing instability (e.g., they are literally homeless/unsheltered, receiving housing services that indicate housing instability, residing in transitional housing, or couch surfing). 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 Jan-19Jul-19Jan-20Jul-20Jan-21Jul-21Jan-22Jul-22Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24Jul-24Snapshot Homeless and Unstably Housed Count Source: WA Affordable Housing Advisory Board 2023-2028 Housing Advisory Plan, Jefferson County Profile Data (2022) Sources: January 2024 Snapshot Report and ACS Families with Children under 18 Share of Households in General Population: 14% Homeless or Unstably Housed Families with Minor Children 2023 Source: January 2024 Snapshot Report Table 6: Percent of Unstably Housed or Homeless Persons, by Household Type, County, and Race/Ethnicity 4% 3% 2% >1% 94% * 4% Race alone or in combination with one or more other races % in population * White alone 86% Unsheltered Counts 2025 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Young Adult (18-24) Late 20s (25- 29) 30s (30-39)40s (40-49)50s (50 -59)Early 60s (60 - 64) Senior 65+ Unsheltered by Age, PIT Count 2025 Source: Jefferson County Pit Count Data 2025 Count: 47 individuals 37, 74% 1, 2% 7, 14% 1, 2% 4, 8% Race, Unsheltered, PIT Count 2025 White Black, African American, or African American Indian, Alaska Native, or Indigenous Hispanic/Latina/e/o Multiracial Unsheltered Counts 2025 Source: Jefferson County Pit Count Data 2025 Count: 47 individuals Indigeneous 4% Asian 3% Black 2% Pacific Islander >1% White 94% * Latine 4% Race alone or in combination with one or more other races % in population * White alone 86% 34, 68% 6, 12% 4, 8% 1, 2% 5, 10% Where Stayed, Unsheltered, PIT Count 2025 Out of Doors (street, tent, etc.) Vehicle RV/Boat Lacking Any of the Following Amenities: Drinking water, restroom, heat, ability to cook hot food, ability to bathe Currently in Hosp/Detox/Other facility Unknown/Data Not Collected Unsheltered Counts 2025 39, 78% 6, 12% 5, 10% Homeless More than 1 Year Yes No Data Not Collected Source: Jefferson County Pit Count Data 2025 Count: 47 individuals 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Disability Fleeing Domestic Violence Permanent Disability SUD IDD Mental Health Disorder Chronic Health Condition Percentage of Unsheltered Experiencing: Unsheltered Counts 2025 Source: Jefferson County Pit Count Data 2025 Count: 47 individuals Sheltered Counts 2025 Sheltered PIT Count to be developed Tenure (Own or Rent) Data Story ➢The share of households that rent is significantly smaller in Jefferson County compared to Washington as a whole and to Clallam County. (Slides 23 and 24) ➢That share dropped significantly by 24% between 2018 and 2023 indicating displacement. (Slide 23) ➢Low-income households are more likely to rent than households above 80% AMI. (Slide 25) ➢BIPOC/PGM are more likely to rent with the exception of Asians. (Slide 26 and 27) ➢Families with minor children are overrepresented among renters compared to the general population. (Slide 28) Source: PolicyMap Local Housing Solutions , Housing Needs Assessment Report, Jefferson County, May 2025 Jefferson County Drop from over a ¼ to less than 20% in 10 years (i.e. 19% drop) Source: Draft Housing Needs Analysis, City of Port Townsend, Feb 2025 Source: Draft Housing Needs Analysis, City of Port Townsend, Feb 2025 Source: PolicyMap Local Housing Solutions , Housing Needs Assessment Report, Jefferson County, May 2025 Source: Draft Housing Needs Analysis, City of Port Townsend, Feb 2025 Source: PolicyMap Local Housing Solutions , Housing Needs Assessment Report, Jefferson County, May 2025 Tenure by Families % of Owner-Occupied Units with Children Under 18: 12% % of Rental Units with Children Under 18: 24% Source: ACS B25012 2022 5-Year Average Cost-Burden Data Story As measured by cost burden, rental households are at greatest risk for displacement. ◦Below 50% AMI, renter households are far more likely to be cost -burdened than owner households. (Slide 31) ◦Cost-burden for those in the 50-80% AMI bracket has risen sharply since 2016 from 35% to 75% in 2023. (Slide 38) There are approximately 4 times as many owner households as rental households below 100% AMI. ◦Both renter and owner households in the 50 to 100% AMI range have seen significant increases in cost burden over the last six years. (Slide 38) ◦JC is increasing in share of owner cost-burdened HHs while share is decreasing at state and national levels. (Slide 36) Seniors, BIPOC/PGM, and families with minor children see higher rates of cost burden than other adults, whites, and families without children respectively. (Slides 39 through 43) Cost-Burden Definition Source: WA Affordable Housing Advisory Board 2023 -2028 Housing Advisory Plan (2022) Source: WA Affordable Housing Advisory Board 2023-2028 Housing Advisory Plan, Jefferson County Profile Data (2022) Jefferson County CHAS Data 2020 Source: Draft Housing Needs Analysis, City of Port Townsend, Feb 2025 In Port Townsend, cost burden grew for all households under 80% AMI between 2016 and 2020. Source: Draft Jefferson County Comprehensive Plan Cost Burden by Tenure, Jefferson County Source: Draft Housing Needs Analysis, City of Port Townsend, Feb 2025 Source: PolicyMap Local Housing Solutions , Housing Needs Assessment Report, Jefferson County, May 2025 Jefferson County Income % AMI in 2023 $75k 90% $50k 60% $35k 42% $20k 24% Source: PolicyMap Local Housing Solutions , Housing Needs Assessment Report, Jefferson County, May 2025 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 JC % Cost Burdened by Income and Tenure 2016-2023 < $20k $20k-$35k $35k-$50k $50k-$75K > $75k < $20k $20k-$35k $35k-$50k $50k-$75K > $75k Owners Renters Source: ACS Table B25106 5 Year Estimates Income % AMI in 2023 $75k 90% $50k 60% $35k 42% $20k 24% Source: PolicyMap Local Housing Solutions , Housing Needs Assessment Report, Jefferson County, May 2025 Source: WA Affordable Housing Advisory Board 2023-2028 Housing Advisory Plan, Jefferson County Profile Data (2022) Cost Burden by Race, Port Townsend Source: Draft Housing Needs Analysis, City of Port Townsend, Feb 2025 Demographic Differences and Disparate Impacts Data Story ➢The following measures related to racially disparate outcomes are included in this report in other topic areas: •Change in Population by Race/Ethnicity (Slide 10) •Race and Ethnicity in Port Townsend with Regional Comparison (Slide 11) •Percent of Unstably Housed or Homeless Persons, by Household Type, County, and Race/Ethnicity (Slide 16) •Homeownership Rate by Race/Ethnicity (Slide 26) •Port Townsend Owner and Renter Households by Race/Ethnicity (Slide 27) •Cost Burden by Race (Slides 40 through 42) ➢The percentage of older adults living in poverty has risen in the past 10 years. (Slide 45) ➢Since 2016, the share of Black and Latine low-income households has increased. (Slide 47) ➢The average neighborhood poverty rate for subsidized housing are mid- range, indicating some concentration of subsidized rental housing. (Slide 48) Source: PolicyMap Local Housing Solutions , Housing Needs Assessment Report, Jefferson County, May 2025 Source: Draft Housing Needs Analysis, City of Port Townsend, Feb 2025 Source: Draft Housing Needs Analysis, City of Port Townsend, Feb 2025 Source: PolicyMap Local Housing Solutions , Housing Needs Assessment Report, Jefferson County, May 2025 Source: PolicyMap Local Housing Solutions , Housing Needs Assessment Report, Jefferson County, May 2025 Housing Supply Data Story ➢Through unequal support for homeownership and longstanding underinvestment in affordable rental housing, we’ve developed a three-tier housing system shaped by policy: Homeownership > Rentals > Shelters. ➢We are adding homes at a slower rate than population growth. (Slide 51) ➢Jefferson County’s vacancy rate of 17% is greater than Washington as a whole by 10%. (Slide 53) ➢ The homes we do add are increasingly out-of-reach to low income buyers. Jefferson ranks second as the least affordable county in WA. ➢With fewer affordable homeownership options, downrenting (when moderate- and higher- income households occupy lower cost rental units) appears prevalent in Jefferson County. (Slide 57) ➢Between 2012 and 2022, we lost 748 rental units in Jefferson County, most probably through converting to ownership units. Source: PolicyMap Local Housing Solutions , Housing Needs Assessment Report, Jefferson County, May 2025 Source: WA Affordable Housing Advisory Board 2023-2028 Housing Advisory Plan, Jefferson County Profile Data (2022) Source: PolicyMap Local Housing Solutions , Housing Needs Assessment Report, Jefferson County, May 2025 Source: WA Affordable Housing Advisory Board 2023-2028 Housing Advisory Plan, Jefferson County Profile Data (2022) Source: WA Affordable Housing Advisory Board 2023-2028 Housing Advisory Plan, Jefferson County Profile Data (2022) Affordable and Available Units per 100 Households In some housing markets, moderate- or higher-income households occupy lower cost rental units, effectively making them unavailable to low-income households. This can occur when there are few ownership options that are affordable or desirable. Using HUD CHAS data, it is possible to measure the impact of this “down renting” on the supply of homes that would otherwise be affordable to low -income households. However, the data reflects conditions surveyed between 2015 and 2019, and therefore do not reflect recent changes in the housing market. The chart provides two different views of the affordable housing supply. The light blue bars summarize the number of affordable rental units per 100 renter households at three different income thresholds. The dark blue bars summarize the number of units that are not only affordable but also occupied by a renter household at the specified income level. These units are considered both affordable and available. Source: PolicyMap Local Housing Solutions , Housing Needs Assessment Report, Jefferson County, May 2025 Between 2012 and 2022 we’ve lost 748 rentals. Source: WA Affordable Housing Advisory Board 2023-2028 Housing Advisory Plan, Jefferson County Profile Data (2022) Source: PolicyMap Local Housing Solutions , Housing Needs Assessment Report, Jefferson County, May 2025 Housing Needs Data Story ➢There is an affordable rental void in Jefferson County. ➢The number of housing units needed to eliminate current homelessness and cost burden is 2200. (Slide 62 and 63). ➢ Of the 4,119 housing units needed in Jefferson County over the next twenty years, 70% or 2,900 units fall into the affordable housing income brackets of at or below 80% AMI. In Port Townsend, the affordable housing need is even higher - 85%, equivalent to 1,403 affordable units of the 1,648 total.(Slide 64) ➢In 20 years, we will need a total of 617 emergency housing beds and 248 permanent supportive beds (PSH) according to Commerce’s estimates. (Slide 64) ➢As of December 2024, existing and planned beds for emergency and PSH beds was at 41% and 58% of the net new housing needed by 2045 respectively. Summary of Net Housing Need Total Net New Housing Need Housing Production Needed to Eliminate Renter Cost Burden Housing Needed for Homeless Population Total Housing Need for Cost Burdened and Homeless HH Pct. Of Households by Income Level, 2018 Housing to Address Household Growth Total Projected Net New PSH Need Total Net New Housing Needed, 2020-2045 0-30%704 930 1,634 11.9%228 1,862 0-30% (Not PSH)1,614 PSH 248 248 >30%-50%285 103 388 9.5%183 571 >50-80%152 152 16.4%314 466 >80-100%- - 9.7%187 187 >100-120%26 26 10.9%210 236 >120%41.6%797 797 Total 4,117 1,167 1,033 2,200 100%1,917 4,119 Emergency Housing Net Need 559 Non-PSH PSH >30-50%>50-80%>80-100%>100-120%>120% Countywide Estimated Housing Supply (2020)16,851 804 16 1,857 3,088 1,715 1,999 7,372 58 Countywide Total Housing Needs (2045)20,970 2,418 264 2,428 3,554 1,902 2,235 8,169 617 Countywide Additional Units Needed (2020-2045)4,119 1,614 248 571 466 187 236 797 559 100.00% Met Target Minimum allocation to urban areas (cumulatively) to accommodate needs at all affordability levels. This varies by county and population target. Non-PSH PSH >30-50%>50-80%>80-100%>100-120%>120% User Input Actual City 40.00 40.01 %1,648 807 124 286 186 75 94 76 280 Unincorporated UGA 40.00 40.01 %1,648 807 124 225 246 75 94 77 280 Rural 20.00 19.98 %823 0 0 60 34 37 48 644 0 Jefferson County Sum of user inputs for jurisdiction shares. If below 100%, increase shares. If above 100%, decrease shares. Port Townsend Port Hadlock - Irondale Unincorporated Rural Allocation - % Share of Future County Net Housing Need Urban area combined % allocation from user inputs 80.00% Permanent Housing Needs by Income Level (% of Area Median Income) Total Units Allocated (2020-2045) Total 75.33% Emergency Housing Needs (Temporary) 0-30% Emergency Housing Needs (Temporary) 0-30% Permanent Housing Needs by Income Level (% of Area Median Income) RESULTING HOUSING ALLOCATION FROM SELECTED SHARES Jefferson County One Tenth of One Percent Tax Fund Evaluation: 2022 Annual Report Sources: American Community Survey (ACS) https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/data.html Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy (CHAS) Data https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/cp.html Port Townsend Housing Needs Analysis, DRAFT 2025-02-17 Jefferson County Pit Count Data 2025 PolicyMap Local Housing Solutions , Housing Needs Assessment Report, Jefferson County, May 2025 https://www.policymap.com/report_widget?type=fur&area=predefined&sid=10192& pid=718180590 Snapshot Reports https://deptofcommerce.app.box.com/s/hnpkedlkifogzx8i892cu0k34nzsrbtp WA Affordable Housing Advisory Board 2023-2028 Housing Advisory Plan, Jefferson County Profile Data (2022) https://deptofcommerce.app.box.com/s/un5ev35w9z8okghs6kmmp9bmf5rpzs6y Other Assessment Reports Housing Solutions Network, Housing Jefferson County’s Economy Community Report Draft 2025 Jefferson County Comprehensive Plan, Chapter 3, Housing Element Jefferson County One Tenth of One Percent Tax Fund Evaluation: 2022 Annual Report Port Townsend Comprehensive Plan Housing Needs Analysis DRAFT 2025-02-17 WA Affordable Housing Advisory Board 2023-2028 Housing Advisory Plan (2022)